Long-term dynamics of pastoral ecology in northern Kenya: An old model for new resilience

Journal of Anthropological Archaeology 55 (2019) 101068

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Long-term dynamics of pastoral ecology in northern Kenya: An old model for new resilience

T

David K. Wright Department of Archaeology and Art History, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xian, China

A R T I C LE I N FO

A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Arid and Semi Arid Lands Historical ecology Archaeology of resilience Ethnic territorialization Climate change Chalbi Desert, Kenya

As the pace of global climate change accelerates, residents of the arid and semi-arid lands of northern Kenya face significant obstacles to maintain viable communities. Colonial and post-colonial political governance and economic models have broken down traditional mechanisms for coping with ecological stress. An archaeological example from the Chalbi Desert is presented as evidence of longue-durée persistence of human occupations through extreme climatic fluctuations. Occupations spanning from ca. 5000 to 600 years BP indicate the presence of robust regional exchange networks and either continuous or repeated occupation of this hot, dry, mosaic woodland. These systems are contrasted against the extrinsically imposed models that began in the late 1800s with the arrival of colonialism in which political economies are more focused on ethnic-territorial and global interests rather than regional cooperation. A long-term ecological model on how traditional systems evolved to cope with vulnerability associated with extreme climate conditions is needed to build resilient communities.

1. Introduction What is ‘sustainability’ and (if it is a good thing) how can it be obtained? These questions have underpinned the last 30 years of public policy discussions in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) of the world (Eriksen and Lind, 2005; McCabe, 1990; Nyong et al., 2007; Roth, 1996; Wario et al., 2012; Zulu and Richardson, 2013). Integral to resolving the answers to these questions is the need to develop understandings of how ecosystems have functioned in their natural and unnatural states over geological time. As humans have asserted significant anthropogenic impacts on landscapes as far back as the Pleistocene through niche construction activities (Boivin et al., 2016), co-evolutionary ecological relationships humans have had with their environment are prescient to resolving what does and does not constitute sustainable habitation. Historical ecology provides a robust framework through which deep-time constraints on ecosystem functioning can be tested. The historical ecological program views humans as prime sculptors of ecosystems and the impacts of human activity are cumulative and scalar through time (Armstrong et al., 2017). The diachronic approach allows quantitative assessments of the evolution of anthropogenesis, and, ultimately, as historical and archaeological narratives are overlain onto ecological frameworks, robust understandings of the limits of system resilience can be explored (Swetnam et al., 1999). Humans are critical

E-mail address: msafi[email protected]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaa.2019.101068 Received 31 October 2018; Received in revised form 1 May 2019 0278-4165/ © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

links in the complex food web and if they are arbitrarily separated from the context of the evolution of a system, their absence in the web would create a hole in which the entire system would dissolve. Therefore, using a historical ecological approach, models of sustainable development in ASALs of Africa must incorporate humans as fundamental components of the evolution of the modern system. Over the last several million years, humans and their ancestors have evolved to become a cornerstone species among earth’s ecological communities. Africa is the continent where the many of the major hallmarks of human social and technological development are first recorded. On geological timescales, the modern eras, which include the Holocene and as-yet controversially designated ‘Anthropocene,’ are mere blinks of the eye. Therefore, conceptualizations of ASALs must be situated within the greater context of the evolution of the system in which humans are a critical component of a wide-ranging ecological matrix. The focus of this paper is on the historical ecology of northwestern Kenya within the extended basin of Lake Turkana, the world’s largest desert lake. The region also includes the adjacent Chalbi Desert to the immediate east of the present-day drainage catchment and transiently connected to Lake Turkana during pluvial periods (Nyamweru, 1989). Spanning over 300 km long by 50 km wide, Lake Turkana has been an important repository of biodiversity within a region in which the net primary productivity is generally characterized as low (Coe et al., 1976). The Chalbi Desert is climatically similar to Lake Turkana,

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Lake Turkana has been subject to a tremendous amount of variability during the Holocene (Fig. 2). At its zenith, Lake Turkana extended approximately 100 m above its present level including 920 km3 of water with a maximum depth of over 200 m (Bloszies et al., 2015). Today, the lake contains slightly more than 200 km3 of water (Källqvist et al., 1988). It is estimated that as recently as 2200 years ago, water levels were as much as 20 m lower than at present (Morrissey and Scholz, 2014). Trangression and regression phases of Lake Turkana are generally in sync with the adjacent catchments such as Chew Bahir to the north (Foerster et al., 2012), Paleolake Suguta to the south (Garcin et al., 2009; Junginger and Trauth, 2013) and Paleolake Chalbi to the east (Nyamweru, 1986, 1989). Climate change differentially impacted these subcatchments, which created patchy resource zones across the ASAL of northern Kenya. The African Humid Period (AHP) occurred during the early to middle Holocene in the northern two-thirds of Africa when significantly more rainfall fell compared to previous and subsequent periods (Blanchet et al., 2015; Castañeda et al., 2009; deMenocal and Tierney, 2012; van der Lubbe et al., 2017). During this period (ca. 11,000–8200 years BP) the Sahara and Sahel were filled with numerous lakes and included significantly more biodiversity than at present (Gasse and Roberts, 2004; Hély et al., 2014). During the AHP, the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrated as much as 5–7° north of its present position, which significantly increased the amount of moisture in the Turkana Basin relative to today (Junginger et al., 2014; Tierney et al., 2011). However, Lake Turkana was subject to at least seven 60 + m fluctuations in lake level on a sub-centennial scale over the last 13,000 years (Bloszies et al., 2015) making it a landscape of extreme ecological disequilibrium. Even during the last 150 years, the interplay between zonal moisture sources in the Atlantic and Indian oceans significantly correlate to meter-scale fluctuations in Lake Turkana (Bloszies and Forman, 2015). Weather attribution analyses show that eastern Africa has become significantly more susceptible to precipitation extremes due to greenhouse gas induced climate change, which is predicted to amplify in the future (Ngaira, 2007; Pachauri et al., 2014). Against this backdrop, the flora and fauna of northern Kenya have adaptively radiated into specific niches according to microclimatic zones, which have shifted over the course of the Holocene (Hoag and Svenning, 2017). For example, a detailed survey of the flora species in Sibiloi National Park found 367 plant species, 73% of which were not found elsewhere in the Turkana Basin, and were strongly geographically constrained according to varying elevational gradients (Mbaluka and Brown, 2016). Arboreal cover, in particular, is highly diverse producing ‘islands in the desert’ (Bussmann, 2002; Bytebier and Bussmann, 2000). Local fauna (Cerling and Harris, 1999; Coe, 1972), including humans (Bussmann et al., 2006; Makishima, 2005), have adapted to the variable distribution, moving seasonally between resource patches.

sharing the Somali Low-Level Jet stream bringing easterly winds funneled between the Ethiopian Highlands to the north and the East African Highlands to the south (Indeje et al., 2001; see also Supplementary Online Material 1). Present ecological conditions are not representative of the past, and the region has been subject to great ecological fluctuations. As such, the lake has been the reservoir upon which numerous species have depended through thick and thin. From the vantage point of hominins, northern Kenya has been a critical incubator of biological evolution and cultural innovation. During both arid and wet periods, humans have depended on vast social networks. This paper will provide the deep historical ecological context for the economic development of northern Kenya with perspective on when and how the pattern shifted from an indigenous ecological framework to one that was more affected by outside actors. A model of social resilience and sustainable development in the 21st century will be proposed from the lessons learned from historical ecology. 2. Historical ecological background to northern Kenya (13,000–200 years BP) The broader Lake Turkana watershed extends from the southern slopes of the Ethiopian Highlands southward to Mount Elgon in Kenya (Fig. 1). The primary drainage is the Omo River, which carries an estimated 80% of the effluent that drains into the lake (Avery, 2010; Ferguson and Harbott, 1982). Lake Turkana has no outlet, and the primary loss of water comes from evaporation and a substantial (but unquantified amount) comes from infiltration into the vast watershed (Yuretich, 1979; Yuretich and Cerling, 1983).

3. Ecological disequilibrium and pastoral resilience Today, the majority (> 80%) of Kenya is classified as pastoral rangeland in which animal husbandry is the primary form of subsistence (Ottichilo et al., 2000). ‘Traditional’ models of rangelands have viewed landscapes as places of ecological equilibrium, while pastoralists exert parasitic-like pressures, which place those systems out of balance (Anderson, 1974; Herskovits, 1926; Lamprey, 1984; Netting, 1977). Such models were first proposed and advanced by colonial-era range managers, who identified pastoralists as difficult to control (i.e., tax) and persistent grazers in spite of the fragility of the ecosystems they inhabited (McCabe, 2004). However, in the 1980s a paradigm shift began in which pastoral ecosystems were viewed as being persistent, but in perpetual disequilibrium, and pastoral systems existed in equilibrium within this dynamic (Ellis and Swift, 1988). According to this framework, fluctuating precipitation levels and grass availability in the ecosystem are limiting factors to herd sizes and pastoral mobility, not

Fig. 1. Map of northern Kenya/southern Ethiopia with select locations from the text plotted. Background image created in QGIS 2.18 from a Digital Earth image and United States Geological Survey digital elevation model. 2

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Fig. 2. Reconstruction of lake level for Lake Turkana (sensu Bloszies et al., 2015). Stable oxygen isotope (δ18O‰ relative to PDB) data from this study are plotted in black triangles and are derived from ostrich eggshell blanks. High δ18O values indicate drier conditions relative to low δ18O values. Ostrich eggshell blanks are indicative of an archaeological occupation of the North Horr site.

subsistence pursuits is as old as pastoralism itself in the basin (Wright et al., 2015). Such strategies are part of the pastoral equilibrium, or resilience, model in which push and pull ecological factors across broad swaths of African ASALs have governed pastoral ‘fitness.’ Resilience is the capacity of a system to experience shocks while retaining elements of its original function, feedbacks and identity (Anderson and Bollig, 2016; Holling, 1986; Walker et al., 2006). Communities utilize a blend of responsive, adaptive and transformative capacities that derive from historical knowledge sets to maintain social cohesion in the face of ecological disturbance or socially disruptive events (Anderson and Bollig, 2016). Within resilience theory, maintaining structural adaptive relationships within systems takes precedent over preserving stasis. Although concepts of resilience were initially developed for the field of ecology (Holling, 1973) followed by other social sciences, the present discussion will be focused on its applicability to understanding social system organization in relation to climatic or social stimuli (see Bradtmöller et al., 2017; Fitzhugh et al., 2019 for more expansive reviews). Resilience theory utilizes a conceptual model called “panarchy” to frame four stages of an adaptive cycle: exploitation (r), conservation (K), release/collapse (Ω) and reorganization (α) (Fig. 3; Holling and Gunderson, 2002). The initial phase is the period in which social mores develop in response to external stress (climatic, social). The final phases often occur rapidly and frequently entail extreme landscape degradation and/or strain on the established social fabric (Redman, 2005). This phased, stepwise progression of social resilience has been recently applied to the historical Pokot in the Lake Baringo-Bogoria region (Anderson and Bollig, 2016; Bollig, 2016; Bollig and Österle, 2013), demographic trends in Central Europe (Peters and Zimmermann, 2017), the Neolithic of Portugal (Bicho et al., 2017) and Holocene occupation of the Namib Desert (Kinahan, 2018). Håkansson (2019) has critiqued resilience theory as heuristic rather than explanatory because causes of specific social responses to ecological events cannot be ascertained. Nevertheless, as a heuristic device, panarchy functions to disentangle the elements of social formulation, dissolution and reformulation within the context of varying degrees of externally applied pressure. The application of resilience theory in an archaeological context provides opportunities to investigate long-term human-environmental relationships. In applying resilience theory to archaeology, there is no clear division between past and present social systems in the absence of

Fig. 3. The four phase panarchy model sensu Holling and Gunderson (2002). The rate of passage through model phases is contingent on the scale of pressure exerted to induce a phase change. The connectedness of the components in the model is strongest during the Ω and K phases and weakest during the α and r phases. Capital (social, material) is actively spent during the r and Ω phases and conserved during the K and α phases.

the other way around (Behnke Jr. et al., 1993; Henrik et al., 2012; Martin et al., 2014; Silcock and Fensham, 2013). This view has been challenged by some long-term ecological research studies, which suggest that the amount of land degradation that occurs depends on the degree of grazing intensity exerted within a system experiencing a water deficit relative to the long term mean (Dougill et al., 2016; Sabine et al., 2010). But, the ‘non-traditional,’ disequilibrium paradigm views the human role within the historical ecology of rangelands as one evolutionary force within the complex matrix of ASALs, which have varying seasonal and interannual carrying capacities. Within a pastoral ecosystem, mobility and viable social networks are crucial aspects of economic success. Traditional coping mechanisms for pastoralists to mitigate droughts or arid periods include reduction in herd sizes, moving herds to distant pastures and trading/selling livestock for products that can be used to survive the harsh conditions (Derry and Boone, 2010; Moritz et al., 2013). Livestock raiding has also been argued to be a coping strategy within a non-equilibrium ecosystem as it will rebalance the trophic capacity of the landscape in favor of households and areas that can handle more biomass (McCabe, 2004). In addition, fishing and cultivation supplement herding during both fat and lean times (Derbyshire, 2017), and the record of flexible 3

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“social collapse” because modern social formulations are spawned (reorganized, α) from released (Ω) systems (Redman, 2005; Redman and Kinzig, 2003). A limitation of the application of the archaeological record to understanding resilience can be its patchy, discontinuous nature. However, a positivist perspective applied to the historical sciences argues that the creation of cables of knowledge from independent strands of evidence creates a robust epistemological structure (Currie, 2018; Wylie, 1989). The vantage point afforded by archaeology is one that gives ecological research insights into the “ultimate, rather than proximate drivers of human-environment interactions” (Redman, 2005:71). In this paper, pastoral resilience will be gauged by a group’s ability to adapt to ecological risk. Resilient social systems are those that can survive social or ecological forms of stress. To that end, they will bend or transform themselves in the face of pressure, but they retain elements of cohesion and system maintenance. Social systems vulnerable to collapse lack the capacity to adapt to existential and ecological threats. These social systems experience high levels of violence and break apart into unrecognizable secondary systems or are absorbed into dominant, alternative social or economic systems. Such processes are best judged through the lens of the archaeological record (Redman, 2005; Redman and Kinzig, 2003), which provides the only deep chronological dataset available to understand the persistence of historical pastoral ecologies within African ASALs. Since the introduction of livestock economies into eastern Africa, pastoral systems have proven to be highly resilient based on the available archaeological records. The Pastoral Neolithic (PN) of eastern Africa included a diverse array of non-iron using livestock-holding economies from 5000 years ago perhaps until the advent of the colonial period (Gifford-Gonzalez and Hanotte, 2011; Wright, 2017). Flexible subsistence strategies and robust long-distance economic networks characterize the PN. For example, a location in which there are wellstratified archaeological sites documenting changing subsistence regimes in eastern Africa is found on the eastern shores of Lake Victoria. Stratified archaeological sites such as Gogo Falls and Usenge 3 show continuity in social and subsistence systems from Early (hunting-gathering-fishing) to Late (mixed agropastoral) Holocene modes of subsistence. The occupants of Usenge 3 undertook subsistence flexibly through time (fishing and pastoralism, then farming) in response to the introduction of Iron Age (Urewe) plant cultivation and iron technologies (Dale and Ashley, 2010; Lane et al., 2007; Seitsonen, 2010). Later immigrations of probable Bantu speakers are reflected in further transformations in ceramic forms and settlement patterns, more oriented toward community rather than household-level power structures (Ashley, 2010). However, in reviewing the totality of the available data, Ashley (2010) argues that there is continuity in social and economic systems through all phases of the archaeological record. Elsewhere in the Lake Victoria basin at the same time, other PN groups maintained cattle and hunting-dependent economies even as there were significant zoonotic risks to livestock health in the form of trypanosomiasis (Chritz et al., 2015; Karega-Munene, 1987; Robertshaw, 1991). The success of pastoralism in eastern Africa has been connected to the flexibility engrained within it (Dahl and Hjort, 1976; Dyson-Hudson and DysonHudson, 1980) and the ability of pastoralists to incorporate and integrate each other through economically expedient alliances (Sobania, 2011; Waller and Sobania, 1994). While there is significant linguistic, archaeogenetic and archaeological evidence for the collapse of hunting and gathering systems by the late Holocene throughout much of eastern Africa (Scheinfeldt et al., 2010), the general resilience of pastoral systems—at least until the advent of the Colonial Era—is generally not in dispute.

4. Territorialization of ethnicity 4.1. Roots of territoriality in the ethnographic record Pastoral economies in northern Kenya have long been connected to one another via distant social networks, but the economic incentives were always locally generated (this argument is also presented in Wright et al., 2015). Old modes of pastoralism were diverse and included a wide range of subsistence options (Lane, 2013). Specialized pastoralists depended on trading with or raiding farmers and fishers they encountered on their annual migration cycles (Sørbø, 2003). Colonialism partially severed this cycle by the imposition of regressive tax structures and the introduction of non-local commodities like tobacco and imported cloth, which refocused the economic center of gravity (Bollig and Österle, 2013; Derbyshire, 2017). While pastoral systems across northern Kenya are resilient and economic ties between pastoral communities remain (Opiyo et al., 2015; Sørbø, 2003; Wario et al., 2012), ethnically based demarcations of land tenure rights combined with the proliferation of small arms across the region have weakened intercommunity economic relationships, most particularly since the 1970 s (Bollig, 1990; Mburu, 1999). Since colonial times, northern Kenya (a.k.a. Northern Frontier Province) has been administratively viewed as a no-man’s land that is difficult to control (Simpson and Waweru, 2012). A void in economic development in the north created a vacuum filled by non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and especially those run by various sects of Christian missionaries (Manji and O'Coill, 2002). NGOs and missions have brought global resources to northern Kenya, particularly in the form of education services and food aid. The scope of aid distribution intensified after the opening of the Kakuma refugee camp in 1969 (Oka, 2011). Incompatible with mobile pastoralism, international aid is apportioned at sedentary distribution points. If they are receiving external aid assistance, a group’s economic viability is primarily dependent on fixedpoint outposts connected to global distribution networks and binds the community to a small ecological niche, which may or may not be economically sustainable depending on the vagaries of the long-term beneficence of the respective donors (Blackwell, 2010; Roth, 1996). Informal economies that develop at aid distribution points are likewise predicated on access to the global commodity market due to the inability of the local ecology to sustain high numbers of sedentary people (Oka, 2011). New economic market pressures in the late 20th century further precipitated a shift in dependency structures to where pastoralists came to rely on external assistance from aid organizations to meet their basic subsistence needs rather than their neighbors (de Montclos and Kagwanja, 2000; Hogg, 1982; McCabe, 1990). A ban on the sale of wild animal products imposed by the central government in 1977 devastated the fishing economy of Turkana since the prime cash products (hippopotamus and crocodile skins) were now illegal (Derbyshire, 2017). These products also formed the basis of gift-giving networks used to develop reciprocal relationships between fishing and herding communities. With few other options, fisher folk turned to Western aid organizations to meet their short-term economic needs. New dependents on international aid received fiberglass boats, nylon nets, aluminum sufuria (cooking pots), second-hand clothes and a host of other products. The products replaced locally produced tools made out of raffia, ceramics or animal hides that served the same functions (Derbyshire, 2017). This further eroded the local economy, creating more aid dependents whose perceived allies were extraregional. Compounding this effect, land tenure systems transformed into individual, rather than collective, holdings, which limited access to grazing land (Amman and Duraiappah, 2004). Christian missions provide education opportunities, but, more importantly, room and board for small, economically unproductive children. Once children reach the age of productivity, either through marriage (girls) or animal 4

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Cycles of high and low rainfall extend deep into prehistory in northern Kenya (Fig. 2), but evidence for famine and violence are sociocultural phenomena that have only been documented in modern ethnographic contexts, and these phenomena have amplified over time. Presently, there is a strong positive correlation between the occurrence of drought and the escalation of violence northern Kenya (Ember et al., 2012; Notenbaert et al., 2007). These events have created circumstances whereby wealth disparities magnify within the economic context of the region. Fratkin and Roth (1990) evaluate the effects of the 1984 drought on household wealth among the Ariaal of northern Kenya and detect clear polarization of economic status based on a family’s access to the cash economy vis-à-vis international relief organizations. Health outcomes of settled pastoralists also appear to be poorer than non-settled pastoralists, which enhance the spectrum of poverty within village communities (Fratkin et al., 1999, 2004). The baseline economic status of a pastoral community and their neighbors is a strong predictor of their collective ability to survive a drought conflict-free (Ayana et al., 2016). While some livestock raiding is opportunistic and annually cyclic (Adem et al., 2012), escalations that include multifatality massacres are attributed to the easy availability of firearms (Mburu, 1999; Oba, 1993) and poor social cohesion (Hendrickson et al., 1998; Hussein et al., 1999). State-sponsored militarism as a means of conflict resolution has benefited entrenched political classes, but left communities fractured and economically disenfranchised (Wasara, 2002). For example, in the decades that follow large-scale violent conflicts such as the so-called ‘Shifta Wars’ in northern Kenya and southern Somalia (1960–1968), the economic security of the affected communities remains precarious (Khalif and Oba, 2013), further incentivizing raiding and enhancing economic marginalization. Previously a mechanism for household-level wealth redistribution, livestock raiding now ‘has been transformed into an economic enterprise with stolen Turkana livestock being quickly transported to regional and national market centers (the profits accruing to politicians and businessmen) (McCabe, 2004:240).’ There is little dispute that such conflicts strengthen the hand of central authorities in containing pastoralists’ interests relative to the population majority. However, it comes at the cost of community cohesion and ability to construct locally beneficial cooperative networks prepared to buffer each other from the effects of climate change. A recent example of the explosiveness of the disparities occurred in November 2014 when Pokot raiders are suspected of killing 25 police officers in Kapedo. Media reports attribute the discovery of geothermal energy in the Silali and Paka hills and disputes about who owns the rights to revenue sharing for the attack (Standard Reporter, 2014). Similarly, ‘green grabbing,’ in which land is economically excluded from pastoralism for conservation purposes, has further marginalized pastoralists from accessing resources they depended on during droughts (Hazard and Adongo, 2015). Such exclusions and violent incidents are now commonplace as permanent settlements overprint previously ephemeral territorial claims. Compounding the problem is the development of infrastructure such as dams along the Omo and Turkwel rivers that have been linked to severe land degradation and the proliferation of destructive invasive species (Adams, 1989; Avery, 2010). Prior to the creation of absolute tribal territories and permanent infrastructure to promote agricultural development, the archaeological record affirms that resources were more widely distributed. Further, traditional pastoral mechanisms to deal with landscape disequilibrium (reduce herd sizes, seek alliances with neighbors, redistribute livestock wealth) have been upended in favor of a new model in which social stability is gained by circumvention of local solutions by situating one’s family closer to extrinsic economic resources. Such disparities play out on a national level as well. Just as it was for the Northern Frontier Province during the colonial period, the counties surrounding Lake Turkana do not receive significant amounts of government support toward development. The effect of this policy is that only 11% of Turkana County is literate, compared to Nairobi

husbandry (boys) at ages 15 to 19, they are normally taken from school (Eyakuze and Salim, 2013; Roth, 1991). Additionally, missions facilitate permanent settlers, who rely on food handouts and well water. These settlers are disproportionately households headed by women, who stay behind while men are tending to livestock in the increasingly shrinking grazing land or who are not married (Adano and Witsenburg, 2005; Fratkin and Smith, 1995; Nduma et al., 2001). Although these are rational economic choices, the focal point of the economy, particularly in drought years, is aligned to international rather than local or regionally obtainable resources. From the perspective of the aid organizations, there is a need to maintain a robust network of dependents so that their own livelihoods are preserved. Charity is allocated and distributed when need is acute and donors feel compelled to open up their wallets. Although the intentions may be noble, a cycle of dependency has developed across northern Kenya, which is not unique to the ASALs of Africa (Fratkin, 1991; Manji and O'Coill, 2002; McCabe, 1990; Moyo, 2009). Charity organizations need dependent clients in order to solicit funds to provide more charity to more dependents. In this way, the patrons need the clients as much as the clients need the patrons. More presciently, though, the imposition of inflexible ethnic identities associated with geographic boundaries and resource allocation during the colonial period laid the foundation for conflict in northern Kenya. The term ‘territorialization of identity’ has been used widely to explain the colonial era manufacture of geographic boundaries in pastoral lands that were associated with ethnic identity (Hussein, 2015; Korf et al., 2015; Schlee, 2013). For example, the imposition of firm ‘tribal grazing areas’ by the British broke down flexible boundaries between pasturelands and the territories were enforced punitively by the government when they were violated (Schlee, 2011). The construction of infrastructure such as wells and distribution of weapons within ethnic enclaves and provided on the basis of ethnic allegiance to central authorities has further imperiled previously flexible concepts of ethnicity (Shongolo and Schlee, 2012). Since the end of colonialism, there have been few changes in the administrative structures of pastoral lands. Enforcement of ethnic boundaries now involve police and military forces who use ethnicity as the basis to determine who belongs in certain areas (Schlee and Shongolo, 2012). Such boundaries are also imposed to suppress political and civil insurgencies such as the Oromo Liberation Front, which has been fighting the Ethiopian government for more local administrative authority (Bassi, 2010). While there are ample examples of persisting cooperative intercommunity links between ethnic groups across northern Kenya (Opiyo et al., 2015; Sørbø, 2003; Wario et al., 2012), there is little dispute that intercommunity relationships have soured and become increasingly violent within the long historical view of the region’s ethnographic history. 4.2. Social and ecological consequences of territorialization There are significant adverse consequences to the reorganization of the economic foundation of the Turkana Basin’s social fabric as well as ecology, which ripple outward. With the economic focus on aid distribution points, the incentive structures and decision-making processes have shifted away from local actors. Ethnic territorial enclaves have been carved out around missions and territory is now fought over. The discovery of oil and construction of wind energy farms have also provided new economic opportunities, but many have been left out of the economic boom (Enns and Bersaglio, 2016; Schilling et al., 2015). Derbyshire (2017) nuances the interpretation of the political ecology of Turkana as part of the dynamic recasting of cultural configurations in a changing world. While violence and economic disparities across society have increased, so too has pastoral culture proven to be resilient within the broader context of the economy of the region. However, the costs of how systems have evolved since territoriality rooted into the region have borne differentially out across society. 5

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Various explanations for the rise of prosociality in human societies have been offered over the years including connecting it to the rise of moralizing religions (Norenzayan et al., 2014), the need to buffer subsistence options (Jaeggi and Gurven, 2013; Premo, 2005) and provide labor for big infrastructure projects (Carballo, 2012b; Chabot-Hanowell and Lucerno, 2012). Because it deters cheating, psychologists have found that a reward and punishment system is an inherent feature of prosocial cooperative behavior (Fehr and Gächter, 2002). Archaeologists can gauge prosociality by the existence of behaviors such as long distance trade, the existence of material culture from disparate sources in a single depositional or temporal context, or the sharing/ transmission of technology between non-affiliated groups (Carballo, 2012a). Determining relatedness of individuals in the archaeological record is fraught with difficulty, but it is reasonable to assume that within regions hosting hundreds to thousands of individuals, it is unlikely that all individuals will share a common, direct lineage.

Fig. 4. Deforestation within Kargi municipality. Author photo 2004.

5.1. Previous research documenting prosocial networks from northern Kenya

County’s 89% rate (Eyakuze and Salim, 2013). People in Nairobi County have more than 15 times the access rates to secondary school education compared to those living in Turkana County. As a direct result of this, only 6% of the residents of Turkana County collect a salary compared to 47% in Nairobi (Eyakuze and Salim, 2013). In addition to the high social costs, territorialization has also extracted ecological costs, which have further exacerbated social ills. Reports commissioned by the International Soil Reference and Information Centre determined that most grasslands across Kenya have increased net primary productivity from 1981 to 2003 with a notable exception in the Lake Turkana region, which concurrently experienced declines in precipitation and increased grazing pressures (Bai and Dent, 2006; Dent and Bai, 2008). Predictive models of climate change up to 5 °C over the next century indicate that livestock productive capacity will be significantly diminished in the coming decades as a result of landscape stress (Notenbaert et al., 2007). Another ecological consequence of the territorialization of ethnic enclaves has resulted in significant deforestation surrounding towns in ASALs of sub-Saharan Africa (e.g., Fig. 4). There are few studies to conclusively document the scale of the change, but one quantitative assessment estimated a deforestation rate of 1.6 ha/yr adjacent to the town of Marsabit, resulting in a significant loss of biodiversity (Kirubi et al., 2000). In another ASAL setting, a study in southern Somalia using high-resolution satellite imagery similarly detected a 2.7% decrease in forest cover over a two-year period (Bolognesi et al., 2015), while a study adjacent to Tsavo National Park in the Kitui District of Kenya documented a 24% decline in forest cover from 1986 to 2014 (Kiruki et al., 2017). Demand for fuelwood in urban centers incentivizes rural community destruction of the forests that surround them (Clancy, 2008). Human encroachment into native forests enhances conflicts with wildlife and promotes the spread of invasive species, further exacerbating forest loss (Owino and Oyugi, 2010).

Northern Kenya has a well-documented record of early human evolution in which there is evidence for some of the first forms of prosocial networks in the world. The region hosts the longest archaeological record in the world (Harmand et al., 2015) and has hosted human settlements spanning the from the Early Stone Age to the present day. During the early Holocene lake highstands, Lake Turkana was home to numerous fishing settlements that were culturally connected to the Sahara (Sutton, 1977; Wright et al., 2015; Yellen, 1998). The distinguishing feature of these sites is the presence of barbed-bone points (a.k.a. ‘harpoons’) with which people were apparently engaged in specialized fishing of Nile Perch (Lates niloticus) (Stewart, 1989). Domesticated livestock provided the earliest forms of food production in the Turkana Basin before 5000 years BP and is associated with a regional megalithic mortuary tradition (Grillo and Hildebrand, 2013). Direct evidence for the evolution of prosocial networks during the Holocene from northern Kenya is complicated by the depositional history and subsequent lack of stratified archaeological sites. The primary forms of evidence for prosociality are twofold. First, the distribution of specific pottery types such as Dotted-Wavy Line bowls found across vast areas north of the equator (including the Turkana Basin) in early to middle Holocene contexts (Keding, 2017) are unlikely to be spontaneously arisen phenomena. Stylistic analyses of Dotted Wavy Line ceramics strongly imply a direct connection to the Early Khartoum pottery of the Khartoum-Butana region of the central Nile River Valley (Keding, 2017). The wide geographic and temporal range of DottedWavy Line ceramics across northern Africa (Mohammed-Ali and Khabir, 2003) precludes their exchange based on kinship alone. Additionally, more direct evidence through chemical characterization of artifacts like obsidian show exchange occurred across climatic zones over the course of centuries or perhaps millennia (Nash et al., 2011; Ndiema et al., 2011). On the other hand, there is also circumstantial evidence for violence and territoriality in the prehistoric record. Lahr et al. (2016) have unearthed human skeletal remains touted as the world’s first documented massacre in contexts dating to ca. 10,000 years BP (but see Stojanowski et al., 2016). Prosociality does not preclude social violence and not all non-kin-based cooperative behavior is indicative of prosocial organization (Gintis et al., 2015; Knauft, 1991). Prosociality on a group level is demonstrated when the economic and social ties consistently point to non-kin-based interdependence that is on par with those forged by kinship links. Bearing in mind the caveats that material culture provides a limited (or even flawed) window into identifying kinship or ethnicity (Lane, 2015), variants of ceramics types based on a chaînes opératoires of ceramics’ manufacture are widely distributed across the Lake Turkana Basin after 4500 years BP, which is the period when the ecology transformed toward the arid conditions of today (Wright et al., 2016). A

5. The evolution and collapse of prosocial networks in northern Kenya Anthropologists use the term ‘prosociality’ to understand the evolution of human social networks to include non- or distant kin-based relationships (Kelly, 2013; Nowak, 2006). Prosocial behavior is imbued with the knowledge that there are payoffs to other individuals as well as yourself for cooperating in activities or solving other peoples’ dilemmas, and such rewards may not be immediate (Hill et al., 2009). It is generally assumed that cooperation between non-related individuals is risky because individuals who do not share genetic affiliation are more likely to cheat or free ride on the labor (Nettle and Dunbar, 1997; Raihani et al., 2012). Prosocial behavior between non-related individuals is not completely unique to human beings, but is generally rarer in other organisms compared to our species (Gintis, 2000). 6

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regionally distributed megalithic mortuary tradition has been interpreted as evidence for socioeconomic integration of communities within the context of the introduction of animal herding (Hildebrand et al., 2018). Communal burial practices among these early pastoralists distributed across northern African down into northern Kenya appear to have functioned to mitigate ‘situational stress’ brought on by climate change associated with the end of the AHP (Sawchuk et al., 2018). The diversity of lithic raw materials found in the archaeological record appears to increase over time, reflecting the robustness of late Holocene social networks even as more isolated burial practices took root (Wright et al., 2015). Linguists argue for successive migrations of different groups of Nilotic- and Cushitic-speaking pastoralists with only minimal blending of languages (Ehret, 2011; Spear and Waller, 1993), while archaeogenetics indicate simultaneous significant admixture of populations (Castrì et al., 2008) concurrent with stepwise migrations originating from northeastern and, later, western Africa (Prendergast et al., 2019). The persistence of a foraging economy at the site of Ele Bor incorporated technological elements of pastoral cultures documented elsewhere demonstrating intercommunity exchange and flexible subsistence in locations with a paucity of water (Gifford-Gonzalez, 2003). Between 500 and 200 years ago, an intense period of fissioning and fusing of linguistic and cultural traditions is inferred based on oral traditions (McCabe, 2004). Such seemingly contradictory data can be interpreted within a resilience-based framework—preservation of deeply engrained cultural attributes such as language and ceramic traditions co-existed within a prosocial landscape of intermarriage and long-distance interactions. The ‘discovery’ of Lake Turkana by European explorers and subsequent incorporation of the region within the dominion of the British political and taxation systems placed strains on the economic and social networks of the region (Derbyshire, 2017). European colonizing powers used ethnicity as a proxy for territorialization and divisive governance of the hard-to-control ASALs, creating alliances with local elites that undermined traditional alliance-based systems (Schlee, 2013). The consequences of this policy can be detected archaeologically. For example, ethnic-based raiding has been interpreted as driving 19th century Maa-speaking blacksmiths into the mountains to avoid risk exposure in the Samburu plains (Larick, 1986). Derbyshire (2017) ethnographically documents how the imposition of so-called ‘hut taxes’ and levies on animal products like hippopotamus and crocodile skins incentivized certain portions of the Turkana population into mobile lifestyles to avoid taxation. Simultaneously, access to imported cloth and tobacco shifted the trade of animal products away from dispersed hamlets to Lodwar town, located in the southwestern portion of Lake Turkana. In so doing, the fundamental nature of the exchange networks broke down from reciprocal gift-giving networks in which alliances and friendships were forged into a system based on access to commodities for personal consumption (Derbyshire, 2017). However, the archaeological record for this region cannot be viewed synchronically because it is the product of diachronic, evolutionary forces that have pushed and pulled communities into more distant or close social relations throughout the Holocene. There is also no ‘single condition’ that underpins social relations—the enemy of my enemy is often my friend, and just as political alliances in the ethnographic record are strategically maintained and/or eschewed, so, too, the prehistoric record should be viewed through this lens. Pastoral resilience, or lack thereof, must be understood as a long-term, evolutionary process in which the material culture and settlement history of a given location is contextualized within its broader historical ecology, including notions of persistence and preservation of prosocial networks.

Fig. 5. Overview map of North Horr archived at the British Institute in Eastern Africa. This unpublished map was originally drafted under the direction of David Phillipson and was digitized for publication with his permission.

endoheric, ephemeral lake basin rimmed by grass or unvegetated dunes and volcanic extrusions with shrubs and acacia trees (Fig. 1). Annual precipitation in the region is topographically variable but the lowlands generally receive 200–400 mm/yr of rainfall (Jaetzold, 1991). However, the Chalbi may have been hydrologically connected to a large network of lakes connected to the Nile River during the AHP (Nyamweru, 1986, 1989) indicating significant changes in climate transpired during the Holocene. 5.2.2. Research history/methods In 1974 and 1979, David Phillipson led archaeological reconnaissance sponsored by the Ford Foundation and United Nations’ Integrated Project in Arid Lands undertaken in the town of North Horr (Fig. 5). Four sites (North Horr I, II, III and IV) were recorded and two sites (North Horr I and II) were subject to subsurface testing (Fig. 6). Following the field season, archaeological artifacts were catalogued and archived at the National Museums of Kenya (NMK) in Nairobi. Although the sites’ existences were published (Phillipson, 1979, 1982, 1984; Stiles, 1980, 1981), a detailed, quantified account of the assemblages was not provided. Grave cairns, one of which was reported as containing a quern resembling stone bowls found adjacent to Lake Turkana (Barthelme, 1977), were documented as rimming the Chalbi Desert (Stiles and Munro-Hay, 1981). Radiocarbon ages for archaeological habitation at North Horr extend from ca. 5000 to 600 cal. years BP, as determined from dated ostrich eggshells (Table 1; Maggs, 1977). Based on the published chronology and depths of the samples below the ground surface, the dune appears to have accreted horizontally rather than laterally so that the older deposits are consistently lower than the upper deposits. In 2014, the collections were rediscovered as part of a project to digitize the NMK Archaeology Section. All paperwork associated with the sites was compiled, which also included an exhaustive search of the British Institute in Eastern Africa’s records collections. Unfortunately, most of the written records associated with the sites’ surveys and excavations could not be located either in Kenya or in the UK (David

5.2. Prosocial networks of the Chalbi Desert 5.2.1. Background Adjacent to the east of the Turkana Basin, the Chalbi Desert is an 7

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Fig. 6. Map North Horr archaeological sites from inset maps in Fig. 1: (a) North Horr I detail view, including excavation units; (b) North Horr II detail view including excavation units. These unpublished maps were originally drafted under the direction of David Phillipson and were digitized for publication with his permission.

Unpaired t-tests of means between the oxygen (ρ = 0.710, t = 0.3775 df = 19, SE = 1.567) and carbon (ρ = 0.202, t = 1.3215, df = 19 SE = 0.989) isotopes from modern day Loiyangalani and the North Horr I archaeological site show no statistically significant differences between the sets of samples. Overall, the results indicate the persistence of an arid climate with mosaic woodlands in the Chalbi, similar to those found today, from 4820 to 1610 cal. years BP. Analysis of the archaeological assemblage is difficult given the lack of associated documentation with the sites. However, it is clear from the NMK collection and notes that the site assemblages are vast, particularly at North Horr I (GcJm1), said to be located in a significantly deflated area ‘c. 100 m NW of D.O.’s [District Officer’s] new compound’ (David Phillipson’s field notes, 29 May 1974). The site collection includes 25,064 pieces of lithics, ceramics and ostrich eggshell beads and preform blanks. North Horr II (GcJm2) has 5628 of the same classes of artifacts. The majority of the assemblages were collected from the modern ground surface, however 4663 artifacts from GcJm1 and 1607 artifacts from GcJm2 are from subsurface contexts (Supplementary Online Material 2). Excavations included ten test units at GcJm1 and three test units at GcJm2—Test Unit A at GcJm1 is recorded as a 2 × 2 m unit, but no other qualifying documentation for other test units was located. Based on the consistency of the mapped units (Fig. 6) and field notes, it is likely that all of the units were excavated as 2 × 2 m

Phillipson, personal communication, 29 September 2017). Therefore, analysis of the artifact assemblage was undertaken using information written on the artifact bags and/or catalogue. Sketches of representative pottery and lithic artifacts were made in the NMK, and descriptions, quantities and weights of artifacts were cross-checked against the catalogue. Additionally, six samples of ostrich eggshell blanks that had been deliberated sculpted into round shapes were exported from the assemblage for analysis by Hong Wang at the Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS) for radiocarbon dating and stable isotopic analysis (Table 1). Stable isotope values of the six archaeological samples were compared to 15 modern samples collected by Stanley Ambrose from the Loiyangalani region in 2009 (average annual temperature = 26.63 °C, precipitation = 349.25 mm/yr; 1991–2015 data obtained from http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data on 2 May 2018). Details of sample selection, preparation and analytical framework are provided in Supplementary Online Material 1. 5.2.3. Results of archaeological artifact assemblage analysis Analysis of ostrich eggshell (OES) from North Horr shows that by ca. 4700 years BP, the region was similar to modern arid conditions (Fig. 7). Fifteen unpublished modern OES stable isotopic values collected in the eastern Lake Turkana region (Loiyangalani and environs) have an average δ18O of 7.4 ± 3.6‰ and δ13C −8.4 ± 1.9‰.

Table 1 Radiocarbon dates and stable isotopic data (vs. PDB standard) from ostrich egg shells from North Horr. Radiocarbon data from Geochron are presented in Maggs (1977) with no further contextual detail available. ISGS #

Sample #

δ13C‰

δ18O‰

Fraction of MC

Δ14C

A4378 A4379 A4380 A4381 A4382 A4383

NHI NHI NHI NHI NHI NHI

−9.5 −6.9 −6.7 −9.0 −7.7 −2.6

5.6 8.1 7.3 12.0 7.2 7.7

0.8035 0.6824 0.6055 0.5978 0.8043 0.7557

−196.5 −317.6 −394.5 −402.2 −195.7 −244.3

Geochron #

Sample #

14

GX-3705 GX-3706 GX-3707 GX-3708

unknown unknown unknown unknown

P.36 TC 50–60 TE 40–50 TG 110–120 TH 30–40 TB 60–70

± ± ± ± ± ±

0.0016 0.0014 0.0015 0.0014 0.0015 0.0015

8

14

± ± ± ± ± ±

1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5

C yr BP

2-σ cal BP

med cal BP

1610–1720 3220–3360 4430–4570 4570–4820 1610–1710 2160–2340

1660 3291 4477 4679 1659 2229

C yr BP

2-σ cal BP

med cal BP

4405 ± 130 3330 ± 130 1525 ± 155 648 ± 140

4630–5450 3250–3900 1090–1820 330–910

5039 3577 1446 626

1755 3070 4030 4135 1750 2250

± ± ± ± ± ±

20 20 20 20 15 20

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Fig. 7. SIBER in R (Jackson et al., 2011) analysis of stable isotopic composition between ostrich eggshell from modern Loiyangalani and Holocene Chalbi Desert contexts against the PDB standard. (a) δ18O from Loiyangalani OES: 7.4 ± 3.6‰, Chalbi: 8.0 ± 2.1‰; (b) δ13C from Loiyangalani OES: −8.4 ± 1.9‰, Chalbi −7.1 ± 2.5‰.

the region.

units in 10-cm levels. Upon examination of the collection, lithic (Fig. 8) and ceramic (Fig. 9) artifacts consist of non-locally sourced raw materials and widely distributed PN pottery types. For example, lithic artifacts included abundant quantities of non-locally sourced rocks, such as the highly diagnostic ‘green obsidian’ (Fig. 8i) known only from the Teleki Volcano region, which lies on the southern shoreline of Lake Turkana, located 125 km southwest of North Horr. Ceramic sherds associated by stratigraphic inference to a radiocarbon dated OES to < 2160–2340 cal. years BP from North Horr I (Fig. 9d) have incised grooves in a style nearly identical to those found at Kaeri Akak IIA (FwJh12A) (Wright et al., 2016: Fig. 3d-f) and Abalete Akoit (FwJh16A) in the western Lake Turkana region (Wright et al., 2016: Fig. 3i, j). The latter site dates to 3250–3460 cal. years BP (Wright et al., 2016). Imbricated, stylus impressions on a sherd recovered from the same archaeological test unit at North Horr I are stylistically similar to those recovered from the site of Adakurake (GeJk13) near Loiyangalani dated to 2725–2745 cal. years BP (Wright and Forman, 2011: Fig. 5). Although the provenience information for the material culture in North Horr needs further clarification, what is clear at this point is that (a) site occupations were intense during the terminal- and post-AHP in the northern Chalbi Desert which had a similar climate to modern-day Loiyangalani, (b) there was persistent reoccupation of the site in the context of dune accretion from ca. 5000 to 600 years BP and (c) the site inhabitants were in contact with broader material culture traditions and/or raw material sources of

6. Discussion of results Archaeological occupations from the North Horr assemblage were part of the broader PN of northern Kenya in which cattle and caprine herders practiced high residential mobility, exchanged material culture over vast distances and used stone tools late into the Holocene (Barthelme, 1985; Ndiema et al., 2011). It is generally understood that social networks during the PN were vast and flexible based on overlapping material culture distributions (Goldstein and Munyiri, 2017) and genetic evidence (Prendergast et al., 2019). Uncertainty and unpredictability in local ecologies are viewed as the foundations upon which prosocial networks evolved during the PN, which likely included exchange in livestock and marriage partners to solidify intercommunity linkages (Gatto and Zerboni, 2015). Despite the presence of elaborate mortuary features at PN sites in the Turkana Basin, there is no evidence for hierarchical social stratification and these monuments are interpreted as mechanisms of broad regional social integration (Grillo and Hildebrand, 2013; Hildebrand et al., 2018). Lake sediment core records from Chew Bahir to the north are used to infer mildly pluvial conditions at ca. 3000 and 1500 years BP (Foerster et al., 2012), but no such evidence has been identified from the Chalbi Basin or adjacent Suguta Basin to the southwest (Junginger et al., 2014). The oxygen isotopic evidence from the Chalbi Desert does

Fig. 8. Sample of lithics of non-local raw material provenience recovered from surface collections at North Horr I: (a) Banded chert burin (W34); (b) jasper crescent (33 T); (c) obsidian scraper/crescent (FF85); (d) obsidian awl (AA28); (e) obsidian scraper (DD84) (f) quartz crystal scraper (EE89); (g) obsidian burin (EE89); (h) white chert scraper (EE86); (i) green obsidian nose scraper (EE30). Lithic illustrations sketched by Nadya Wright. Supplementary Online Material 2 contains grid unit collection data, however no further provenience information regarding the recovery locations is available. 9

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Fig. 9. External views of ceramics from excavated and dated contexts from North Horr I: (a) comb or rocker stamp body sherds from TE 40–50 cm (4430–4570 cal. years BP); (b) rim sherds with pinched design from TC 80–90 cm (> 3220–3360 cal. years BP); (c) incised, punctate body sherds from TC 40–50 cm (< 3220–3360 cal. years BP); (d) sherds with incisions or comb/rocker stamp impressions (< 2160–2340 cal. years BP). Grid units are shown in North Horr I in Fig. 3b.

2005; McCabe, 1990). Sedentization of pastoralists creates circumstances that promote the rise of hierarchical socio-economic governance structures, further exacerbating wealth disparities and increasing incentives to conduct violent raids (Eaton, 2008; Renfrew, 1990) and ecological destruction of forests. Ultimately, long-term health outcomes are poorer for communities located in conflict zones (Guha-Sapir and D’Aoust, 2011). When examining the historical ecology of the region, sedentism and intensive exploitation of concentrated aspects of the landscape are anachronistic to sustaining robust, biodiverse ecological systems. However, comparable to the Holocene archaeology of the Namib Desert (Kinahan, 2018) the record in the Chalbi demonstrates the persistence (panarchy model K) of human occupation in an arid landscape. This region has faced ecological uncertainty before and has traditional mechanisms to deal with landscape unpredictability or disequilibrium (Nyong et al., 2007). When unpredictable resource bases occur, such as during a drought, political and economic alliances are made, which serve to maintain survival of those who enter into them (Eriksen and Lind, 2009). When those alliances are perceived as inequitable, there are incentives for those who are in a deficit of power to fight for access to resources; when they are perceived as equitable, the incentives to enhance large-scale social cooperation increase. The long view across northern Kenya shows that phases of rapid climate change have underpinned significant social developments (panarchy model r) such as the evolution of deep water harpoon fishing (Stewart, 1989), vast trading networks (Nash et al., 2011; Nelson, 1993), the introduction of domesticated animals and indigenous formulation of new herding economies (Wright et al., 2015), construction of monumental architecture and communal burial spaces by herding communities (Grillo and Hildebrand, 2013; Hildebrand et al., 2018; Sawchuk et al., 2018) and oral traditions establish intercommunity relationships deep into the past (Schlee, 1985, 1989). In turn, the cumulative ecological matrix of the region is the byproduct of these combined phenomena. Following Ω release of the system that began during colonialism and the 19th century severe drought and rinderpest epidemics, pastoral economies are now (resiliently) adapting to the new ecological reality by opportunistically turning to externally sourced aid to mitigate the effects of climate change and regional insecurity. Traditionally, residents of northern Kenya have relied extensively on vast social networks and economic diversification to mitigate adverse effects of climate change, and there are grassroots efforts underway in northern Kenya to restructure that form of resilience in the region’s pastoral ecology (Opiyo et al., 2015; Sørbø, 2003; Wario et al., 2012). Looking directly at the archaeological record of the Chalbi Desert, evidence for long-distance social networks include non-local obsidian artifacts and ceramics that were part of a broader East African PN cultural complex. The manufacture of ostrich eggshell beads was common, presumably for purposes of trade and/or social signaling. These cultural practices took place in climatic conditions that were asor more arid than the present-day. Although the archaeology of the

not indicate more pluvial-than-present conditions overall as all isotopic values fall within the range of modern samples. The ostrich eggshell from the Chalbi similarly demonstrates the persistence of C3 (woody) vegetation into the late Holocene, which is consistent with the mosaic of flora presently found in the region (Schultka, 1991). The one exception to this pattern occurs in one C4 biased sample at 2230 cal. years BP, which precisely correlates to a hypothesized lower-than-present stand of Lake Turkana (Morrissey and Scholz, 2014). However, despite these similar ecological conditions, there is a qualitative difference between social structures recorded in prehistory and those observed in the modern anthropological record. Prehistoric social systems across northern Kenya were predicated on cross-regional interdependence. There are no clear markers of material wealth accumulation, although wealth among traditional pastoral societies are typically measured in terms of livestock (e.g., Bonte, 1991). Since the arrival of European explorers and missionaries in the late 19th century, intertribal social relations have gradually become increasingly hostile between neighboring ethnic communities, particularly during drought conditions (Schlee, 2013). This phenomenon may have predated the arrival of the Europeans (Simpson and Waweru, 2012), but was offset by the formation of regional alliances. The advent of specialized modes of livestock herding was a cultural innovation associated with smallpox, drought and a rinderpest epidemic in the late 19th century, and it has been interpreted as a mechanism for integrating and accommodating neighboring groups under stress (Sobania, 1991, 2011). Competition and violence for resources at this time occurred within the framework of political and ethnic alliances, dependent on dynamic social and ecological factors. The traditional social structure was gerontocratic and decisions on who constituted friends or foes and how to respond to ecological crises were made by consensus, not coercion (Bollig and Österle, 2013). However, by the mid-20th century, warfare and interethnic strife was commonplace (Gulliver, 1955), and is more acutely exacerbated by the proliferation of small arms into the region (Greiner, 2013; Schilling et al., 2012; Witsenburg and Adano, 2009). More recently, a zero-sum game of warfare and state of perpetual social disequilibrium has manifested in the Turkana Basin fueled by commoditybased profiteering (Ember et al., 2012; Galaty, 1993; McCabe, 2004). Within the adaptive cycle of the panarchy resilience model (Fig. 3), the escalation in intercommunity violence and political fragmentation of the region (Ω) has yielded to a circumstance of social reorganization (α) centered on dependency on non-governmental assistance. 7. The long view: A new (old) path toward a sustainable future? As the pace of global climate change accelerates, the resource base of ASALs of northern Kenya is becoming increasingly unpredictable (Ngaira, 2007; Pachauri et al., 2014; Yanda and Mubaya, 2011). Resource stress and uncertainty provide fertile ground for the seeds of social conflict (Cullen and Idean, 2012). In turn, conflict makes people more vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change (Eriksen and Lind, 10

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(3) Archaeology is a discipline of inference. The archaeological record is incomplete and sometimes seemingly contradictory. However, in the context of economic development, the archaeological record provides a model of resilience. No human society inhabiting the planet today arrived at this moment in time by engaging in completely self-destructive ecological and economic development. Archaeology teaches us how humans coped with past vulnerability and risk by engaging in some form of cooperation and adaptation. This does not mean that the archaeological record of resilient societies is devoid of violence and conflict, but the contexts of such occurrences are always tempered with some form of intraregional prosociality, unless that social system has faced complete collapse. If a feature of economic development in the 21st century is to include strengthened social institutions and empowered people, the past is instructive to find examples of where successes (and failures) have occurred. We must contextualize their meanings, even using incomplete datasets, such as those from northern Kenya. (4) Incorporating forms of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) is now widely recognized as fundamental to economic development (Berkes et al., 2000; Buytaert et al., 2014; Hernández-Morcillo et al., 2014). In northern Kenya, documentation of TEK of plants has expanded conservation efforts by helping to assign value to certain species of trees (Stave et al., 2007). But there are also ample examples of how forms of TEK are used to chart a path of sustainable development in policy implementation. For example, ecosystem services (e.g., wild food, biofuels, medicinal plant cultivation) and careful management of natural assets provide clear pathways to post-conflict community restoration and resilience (Woollen et al., 2016; Young and Goldman, 2015). Local initiatives incorporating human interests that balance traditional understandings of rangeland management (vis-à-vis TEK) and restoration are the only viable solutions to reducing community vulnerability.

region immediately preceding colonialism has not been adequately explored, the persistence of seemingly ‘de-territorialized’ material culture at North Horr from ca. 5000 until ca. 600 BP suggests that prosocial structures were a viable long-term strategy for surviving harsh landscape conditions. In turn, the ecology of the region has evolved to depend on human mobility and pastoralism, which is now threatened by ethnic territoriality. The sustainability of this new type of resilience is questionable within the context of the region’s historical ecology. Given the realities of the region’s historical ecology in the face of colonial and post-colonial threats to the long-term sustainability of pastoral livelihoods, what reasonable next steps can be taken to reduce vulnerability and recapture the system’s prosocial resilience? Increasingly, formal education is viewed as the primary pathway to long-term economic viability among pastoralists, although with limited effect depending on the available economic infrastructure to provide jobs for graduates (Opiyo et al., 2015). In particular, oil drilling has focused local youths’ attentions on using formal education as a vehicle to secure lucrative employment opportunities (Enns and Bersaglio, 2016). Whether or not oil drilling is the best path toward sustainable development of northern Kenya is certainly debatable, but education provides opportunities for local communities to link to each other and the outside world in positive (non-violent) ways. Education is also seen as a key element toward restoring and sustaining local ecologies, particularly in an attempt to develop and utilize alternative sources of fuel beside charcoal (Zulu and Richardson, 2013). Robust networks of information exchange and a hybridized community-based/privatized land tenure scheme align with traditional (pre-colonial) models of landscape management and are predicted to result in better outcomes than the present-day schema (Amman and Duraiappah, 2004). Devolution of Kenya’s political administration has the potential to refocus economic activities and incentives locally. By shifting political authority and economic resources to the local level, there is better potential for the creation of autochthonous solutions to local problems. Viable community forums in which grievances can be publically aired and disputes mediated have proven effective tools for reducing conflict, improving environmental stewardship and providing economic security in northern Kenya (Haro et al., 2005). In the modern context, government structures must enable the resumption of traditional social structures, working with extractive industries, missions and NGOs. The path forward must include foremost consideration of the political and economic dimensions of local communities’ indigenous adaptation strategies (Eriksen and Lind, 2009; McPeak and Little, 2018; Mosley and Watson, 2016). In this sense, the historical ecological paradigm is salient for charting a sustainable path forward. If archaeology is to be included in modeling sustainable development moving forward, the following should be considered:

Acknowledgements Archival research on the North Horr collection was conducted with permission from the Office of the President of the Republic of Kenya (permit MOHEST 13/001/30C 220) and in collaboration with the National Museums of Kenya Department of Earth Sciences. The work was funded by the 'Overseas Training Expenses for Humanities' through the College of Humanities Seoul National University (SNU) in 2014. The British Institute in Eastern Africa and United Nations’ African Studies Institute at the University of Nairobi sponsored the original research in 1979 that brought David Phillipson to North Horr. David Phillipson has provided valuable insights and moral support for continuing research on the collections. John Munyiri at the National Museums of Kenya took some of the photos of lithics and ceramics used in Figs. 8 and 9 as part of the digitization project. Hong Wang, now at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, provided the methods text for the stable isotope preparation work related to radiocarbon dating in Supplementary Online Material 1. I would like to thank Paul Lane and Steve Forman for critical reads of early drafts of this manuscript. Constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers greatly improved the quality of this manuscript, and I am grateful for the generous investment of their time to that end.

(1) The wide array of anthropogenic activities in the context of landscape evolution needs to be quantified. Human activities are not limited to archaeological sites. Impacts are scalar from the site outwards. Landscapes of today are inheritances of the milieu of selective mechanisms the landscape has undergone in the past. (2) Historical ecology frames humans as taphonomic agents (e.g., cornerstone species, apex predators) upon which the landscape has come to depend. Exclusion of humans from portions of the landscape (e.g., the aforementioned ‘green grabbing’ outlined in Hazard and Adongo, 2015) can enhance ecological disequilibrium. Instead, some studies of pastoral ecology frame pastoral systems as historically in equilibrium relative to the ecological disequilibrium of the landscapes they have inhabited (Ellis and Swift, 1988). Inclusion of archaeological perspectives demonstrates the extent to which humans and other components of the ecosystem are interdependent on one another as a result of sustained anthropogenesis dating to hundreds, thousands and, in cases like the Turkana Basin, millions of years.

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