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Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Projections and Evaluations for Turkey
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LONG-TERM ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS AND EVALUATIONS FOR TURKEY
1.7 Muhsin Kılıc¸, Esra O¨zdemir Uluda g University, Bursa, Turkey
1. INTRODUCTION Since the beginning of the 20th century, energy has become one of the most significant factors in ensuring that countries have a competitive advantage. In the 21st century, several factors including technological innovations, increasing the permeability of international borders, capital mobility, and development of communication have increased the amount and speed of energy use [1]. The world’s countries have focused on the following: energy resources that are inevitable basic inputs of economic development, sustainable energy policies, ensuring the security of supply and diversifying of energy resources as well as low cost of intended use of energy, being supplied with demanding quantity and quality. The Republic of Turkey, with a population of 78 million and area of 783,562 km2, forms a natural bridge between Europe and Asia [2]. Turkey is a rapidly growing economy, and over the past decade, its gross domestic product (GDP) has increased at a significant rate compared to other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. According to the International Energy Agency, Turkey is the 17th largest economy of the world [3]. Turkey has experienced considerable changes in its electricity market in the past decades. Rapid growth in the electricity demand has led to considerable transformation in the electricity sector with large increases in the generation capacity to accompany it. According to the energy balance sheets of Turkey (EBST) published by the World Energy Council-Turkish National Committee in 2016, between 2000 and 2013 the electricity demand of Turkey almost doubled and reached to 240,154 GWh [4]. Energy has a strategic importance for developing Turkey. According to Turkey Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) data (2016), Turkey’s energy imports increased to $60.1 billion in 2012. However, this value decreased in the last 2 years to $55.92 and $54.91 billion in 2013 and 2014, respectively [2]. Using these values, it can be concluded that Turkey doesn’t have substantial reserves of conventional fuels. Due to the lack and poor quality of primary resources, Turkey is highly dependent on imported energy. According to the Ministry of Energy, import dependency was above 72% in 2012. This is Exergetic, Energetic and Environmental Dimensions. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813734-5.00007-X Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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underpinned by the dependency on natural gas imports, which account for nearly 43% of total electricity production [5]. There are several hardships that the Turkish energy market faces. The high level of dependence on imported energy sources and the negative externalities caused by the utilization of fossil fuels are the main problems that policy makers will struggle to solve for the immediate future. For this reason, generating policies for the future and energy management should be done by planning energy from today. Turkey has to actualize its own energy security. To this end, according to the report published by Turkey’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey’s objectives should include: to diversify its energy supply routes and source countries; to increase the share of renewable energy resources and include nuclear power in its energy mix; take significant steps to increase energy efficiency; and contribute to Europe’s energy security. In addition, within the context of the Kyoto Protocol, Turkey must reduce its CO2 emissions and develop CO2 emissions technology in combating climate change. Thus Turkey should ensure the above policies and especially Turkey should increase the share of renewable energy sources in its electricity generation as a country with rich renewable energy potential. Turkey is implementing new energy targets under “Vision 2023,” its economic development strategy to 2023, the year that marks the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey. The energy goals to 2023 include the promotion of indigenous energy resources, such as coal (lignite) and a 30% share of renewable energy in the electricity mix; the reduction of energy intensity by 20% below 2010 levels through improved efficiency; and the launch of two or three nuclear power plants [5]. Energy demand and supply projections that lead to energy planning and energy policy have gained importance in recent years. Long-term energy supply-and-demand projections constitute the basis of long-term energy planning and investment. The lowest cost for an optimal system to meet energy demands can be determined with energy projections. Thus, it is possible that both energy and financial resources are used more efficiently and possible scenarios can be tested and revised. In the light of this work, decision makers are able to have develop ideas about needed policies and practices for the future from the current situation. Some examples of energy projections in the literature include the following: Zhang et al. [7] calculated the external costs of electricity generation in China under different energy scenarios by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. They estimated the energy demand in electricity generation of China from 2003 to 2030. Lin and Ouyang [8] evaluated how demand for fossil fuels and carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide in China are affected by the reforms in the country and macroeconomic developments with general equilibrium models that they created. Cai et al. [9] created different scenarios of electricity production models that are cleaner and more efficient use of energy in China from 2010 to 2050 by using LEAP software. Ozer et al. [6] predicted electricity demand until 2030 for Turkey by using the LEAP program and planned electricity production scenarios for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Hotunoglu and Karakaya [10] evaluated the final results by creating a scenario of how energy demand will develop if in the future economic growth is stabilized, energy densities decrease, and economic growth changes in each of 5 years by using an artificial neural networks technique. Dilaver and Hunt [11] estimated Turkish electricity demand depending on GDP, electricity price, and underlying energy demand trend. Shin et al. [12] planned electricity production by creating “projection of being used waste gas (landfill gas)” to produce electricity more environmentally friendly and economically in Korea by using the LEAP model. Egelioglu et al. [13] investigated the influence of economic variables on the annual electricity consumption in northern Cyprus. Song et al. [14] accomplished environmental and economic assessments of chemical absorption processes in Korea using the LEAP model. Ozturk et al. [15] used the genetic algorithm approach to investigate the relationship between total electricity consumption,
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gross national product, population, and imports and exports for the period 1980e2001 in Turkey with annual data. Total electricity demand of Turkey was estimated as 220 and 300 TWh in 2020 with exponential and quadratic forms of the genetic algorithm electricity demand models, respectively. Ozturk and Ceylan [16] estimated the total and industrial sector electricity consumption based on GNP, population, and import and export figures of Turkey by using genetic algorithm approach. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the future energy demand, energy supply, and CO2 emission potential of Turkey’s energy sector. For this purpose, firstly, the total energy demand was estimated depending on the six sectors: industrial, residential and services, transport, cycle and energy, agriculture, and nonenergy use. The estimation was based on the population, GDP, and the proportion of each demand sector in total consumption with the annual growth rates. Correspondingly, electricity generation scenarios were built. Two scenarios for energy demand and four scenarios for electricity generation based on the LEAP model were employed to simulate the current energy situation and to develop forecasts under certain assumptions. The demand scenarios include business-as-usual (BAU) and mitigation scenario options. The electricity generation scenarios were created such that the renewable energy resources’ ratios that were solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy, etc. were increased in total energy supply, and their results were evaluated for energy demand and for electricity generation.
2. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY 2.1 THE STRUCTURE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN TURKEY The importance of Turkey continues to increase as a regional energy transit hub and growing consumer in the energy market. According to the Energy Information Administration [17], Turkey’s energy demand has increased very quickly in recent years and it is predicted that this increase will continue in the next years. According to the Energy Report [18], the overall distribution of energy resources in Turkey is such that: • • • •
Turkey has become one of the fastest growing energy markets in the world. Having a substantial potential for producing renewable energy resources, Turkey ranks seventh in the world and first in Europe in terms of geothermal energy. Turkey has targeted increasing the use of hydro, wind, and solar energy resources in electricity generation. Renewable energy and energy efficiency projects are helping to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey.
According to the EBST [4], 120,290,000 tons of oil equivalent (TOE) primary energy supply occurred with 31,944,000 TOE domestic production and 96,001,000 TOE the value of imported energy in 2013. Fig. 1 shows the distribution of sources in total primary energy supply. The highest energy resource was natural gas with the rate of 32%. This value was followed by coal and oil sources with 29% rates. According to Fig. 1, 90% of Turkey’s energy supply is comprised of fossil fuels. Examined on a sectoral basis, 30,866,000 TOE of the energy supply were consumed by the sector of cycle and energy, 89,422,000 TOE were consumed by the sectors of industrial, residential and services, transport, agriculture, and nonenergy use. The highest energy demand took place in the industrial sector and the residential and services sector shown in Table 1. Driven by economic growth,
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Hydro 4%
Geo., wind, solar Wood 2% 2%
Others 2%
Natural gas 32%
Oil 29%
Coal 29%
FIGURE 1 The distribution of sources in Turkey’s primary energy supply [4].
Table 1 Sectoral Energy Consumption of Turkey in 2013 Sectors Industry Transportation Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Nonenergy Usage Cycle and Energy
Energy Consumption (1000 TOE)
Rate (%)
30,137 22,772 31,402
25.1 18.9 26.1
1,633 3,479 30,866
1.4 2.9 25.7
Based on WEC-TNC. The energy balance sheets of Turkey, Ankara; 2014. Online at:http://www.dektmk.org.tr/ incele.php?id¼MTAw.
final consumption of energy has also increased in all sectors, by 29.6% since 2004. Generally, the industrial sector has increased in energy consumption since 2002, although in 2008 and 2009 production decreased due to the global economic crisis in Turkey. However, the value of energy consumption of the industrial sector has continued to rise since 2010 [18].
2.2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN TURKEY According to the EBST, electricity generation and consumption increased more than threefold since 1990. The gross electricity demand of Turkey increased by 6.8% annually from 57,543 GWh (Gigawatt hour) in 1990 to 240,154 GWh in 2013. The total installed capacity of the power industry is
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350000 300000 Electricity Energy Generation (GWh)
Electricity value
250000 200000
Installed Capacity (MW)
150000 100000 50000 0
FIGURE 2 Turkey’s installed capacity and electricity energy generation by years [4].
approximately 49.5 GW at the end of 2013, while it was 16.3 GW in 1990. The annual growth rate is about 5.8% as shown in Fig. 2. Production and consumption in 2013, compared to 2012, increased by 0.3% and 1.6%, respectively, as seen in Table 2. When we look at the past 5 years, the change in consumption and peak demand was the average annual level of 5.6%. Compared with the previous 5 years, the decline of increase rate is realized significantly. However, growth in the installed capacity has continued and reached 64,007 MW with an increase of 12%. The Electricity Generation Company with its subsidiaries produces 34% of electric power. As of 2013, the total share of the public sector in the market was 60% and the share of free market production was 40%. The significant contribution of natural gas continues in electricity generation. Consumption of natural gas increased significantly from 1990 to 2013 while the share of natural gas in electricity generation increased from about 18% in 1990 to 43.8% in 2013. Hydro, lignite, and imported coal power plants had shares of 25%, 13%, and 12%, respectively. Table 2 General Electricity Generation and Consumption of Turkey
Installed capacity Peak demand Generation Importation Exportation Consumption
Unit
2011
2012
2011e12 Change (%)
2013
2012e13 Change (%)
MW MW GWh GWh GWh GWh
52,911 36,122 229,395 4,556 3,645 230,306
57,059 39,045 239,497 5,827 2,954 242,370
7.8 8.1 4.4 27.9 19.0 5.2
64,007 38,274 240,154 7,429 1,226 246,356
12.2 2.0 0.3 27.5 58.5 1.6
Based on WEC-TNC. The energy balance sheets of Turkey, Ankara; 2014. Online at:http://www.dektmk.org.tr/incele.php?id¼MTAw.
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3500
Electricity consumption
3000 2500
Net electricity consumption per capita (kWh/person)
2000 1500 1000
Gross electricity consumption per capita (kWh/person)
500 0
FIGURE 3 Electricity consumption per capita by years [4].
According to the EBST [4], electricity consumption per capita increased more than threefold since 1990, as shown in Fig. 3. Net electricity consumption per capita was 2577 kWh/person and 2568 kWh/ person in 2012 and 2013. Gross electricity consumption per capita was 3205 kWh/person and 3132 kWh/person in 2012 and 2013, respectively. When the final electricity demand by sector of Turkey for 2013 is analyzed, Turkey’s energy end use is dominated by the industrial sector, which takes up about 45% of total end use electricity consumption while it was 62.4% in 1990 and has an average annual growth rate of about 5%. The residential sector accounts for about 25%, and the commercial and services sectors follow by a cumulative 27% in 2013.
3. METHODOLOGY In this study, LEAP, which is an accounting and scenario-based modeling program, is used to calculate and evaluate the changes of energy consumption and energy production systems in Turkey. LEAP system is an energyeenvironment modeling platform developed by Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston. LEAP is a software tool that analyzes the effectsdphysical, economic, and environmentaldof alternative energy planning, technologies, and other energy initiatives [14]. LEAP is based on a comprehensive accounting, such as of energy production, conversion, and consumption in a particular region or economy under conditions of alternative assumptions based on population, economic development, technology, price, and so on. LEAP contains four modules: energy scenarios, aggregation, environmental database, and fuel chain as seen from Fig. 4. It gives extensive information indicating the impacts of the environment, costs, technical characteristics of energy technology and also provides the ability to do projections of energy supply and demand for long-term
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
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FIGURE 4 The structure of LEAP [14].
planning. With the program, possible future problems are identified; perspective is created for the energy supply and demand in future years by evaluating possible effects of energy policy and allows energy planning and policy from today. In addition, an environmental assessment of greenhouse gas emissions arising from energy use can be done [19]. GDP, which expresses the income level of countries, is used as entry data in the creation of projections. In the LEAP model, the gross domestic productepurchasing power parity (GDP-PPP) and the gross domestic productemarket exchange rate (GDP-MER) data for the value of GDP, which were acquired from the World Bank [20], were used. Turkey Statistical Institute population value for population, which is another factor in the increasing of energy demand, was used in the LEAP model. For this data, scenarios was created using the growth rate of population in the newsletter that is “the Demographic Structure and Future of Turkey, 2015e2050” published by TUIK. All of the data was obtained from the EBST, which was entered for the years 1970e2012 in the LEAP model. The energy demand and energy transformation system diagram of the LEAP model that was developed is shown in Fig. 5.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS 4.1.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario In the business-as-usual scenario or base case scenario, the continuation of current economic energy sector trends and policies without any major interventions is assumed. Scenarios were developed based on the historical development of used fuels in energy demand sectors from 1985 to 2012.
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FIGURE 5 Energy system diagram of the developed LEAP model.
For the growth rate of Turkey’s population and the growth rate of GDP-MER, 1.25% and 2.9% were used in the scenario. Accordingly, it is estimated that Turkey’s population will reach 86.7 million people and GDP-MER will reach $595.8 billion in 2023. The historical fuel demand of Turkey is illustrated in Fig. 6. As is seen in Fig. 6, according to the BAU scenario, the electricity, natural gas, and oil in the Turkish energy demand continue to be dominant and their energy demand will reach 1056.00 million Gigajoule (GJ), 1527.50 million GJ, and 1780.60 million GJ, respectively, in 2023. In addition, Turkey’s total energy demand in 2023 will be 5475.15 million GJ. The results of energy consumption of the BAU scenario on a sectoral basis are given in Table 3. According to the BAU scenario, the energy consumption of the housing and services sector will be 1818.93 million GJ at the end of 2023, while it was 1254.95 million GJ in 2011. Compared with the 2011 value, the total growth rate is about 45% in 2023. The energy consumption of industry sector will reach 1894.61 million GJ in 2023, while it was 1348.55 million GJ in 2011. Compared with the 2011 value, the total growth rate is about 40.5% in 2023. In the agricultural sector, energy demand will be 525.00 million GJ with a 117% increase at the end of 2013. In the transportation sector, energy
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
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FIGURE 6 The fuel ratios of energy demand in the business-as-usual scenario.
Table 3 Sectoral Energy Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Business-as-Usual Scenario (Million GJ) Sectors
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Nonenergy Usage Total
1254.95
1376.97
1510.85
1657.75
1818.93
240.97 1348.55 667.80 185.99 3698.26
292.76 1463.84 708.98 222.14 4064.69
355.68 1592.39 754.07 265.32 4478.31
432.13 1735.49 803.58 316.89 4945.84
525.00 1894.61 858.12 378.49 5475.15
demand will be 858.12 million GJ with a 28.5% increase at the end of 2023. In the nonenergy use sector, energy demand will be 378.49 million GJ with a 103% increase at the end of 2023. In the BAU scenario in which everything continues under current conditions, the amount of electrical energy consumption that is consumed by the housing and services, agriculture, industry and transportation sectors was calculated for 2012e23. The sectoral electricity demand of Turkey appears in Table 4. In the BAU scenario, the total electricity consumption in 2020 grows to 259.56 and 293.32 TWh in 2023. Also, it was predicted that for the electricity demand of the housing and services sector the electricity demand of the industrial sector will reach 136.17 TWh with about 54% growth rate, 140.24 TWh with about 49.5% growth in 2023 when compared with the value of 2011 year.
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Table 4 Sectoral Electricity Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Business-as-Usual Scenario (TWh) Sectors
2011
Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Total
2014
2017
2020
2023
88.07
97.06
107.35
120.75
136.17
4.36 93.90 0.53 186.86
6.10 104.26 0.34 207.76
8.51 114.52 0.37 230.75
11.86 126.56 0.39 259.56
16.49 140.24 0.42 293.32
Additionally, the electricity demand of the agriculture sector and transportation sector will reach 16.49 and 0.42 TWh, respectively, at the end of 2023. The calculation of energy-related CO2 emissions for all fuel types from 2011 to 2023 under the BAU scenario is represented in Table 5. The emissions factors, which are carbon dioxide nonbiogenic, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, nitrous oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide, are directly taken from the technology and environment database in the LEAP program. In Turkey’s energy demand, as expected the most destructive gas is CO2 emissions. In case of BAU, as a result of growing energy consumption, it is estimated that the greenhouse gas effect will produce 247 million metric tons of CO2 in 2020 and 270 million metric tons of CO2 in 2023.
4.1.2 Mitigation Scenario The economic and demographic situation have decreased in the mitigation scenario compare to BAU scenario. It was assumed that the development of Turkey’s economy slowed toward 2023 in this scenario. Hence, the growth rate of Turkey’s population was 1%. The growth rate of GDP-MER was the specific situation as “Growth (2.9%; 2015; 2.5%; 2018; 1.5%; 2020; 0.5%; 2023; 0.5%)” in the projection. The energy demand of the housing and services sector was decreased 1% annually, the energy demand of the industry sector remained constant, and the energy demand of the nonenergy use
Table 5 Greenhouse Gas Effect for Business-as-Usual Scenario (Million Metric Tons of CO2) Emissions
2005
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Carbon dioxide nonbiogenic Carbon monoxide Methane Nitrogen oxides Nitrous oxide Nonmethane volatile organic compounds Sulfur dioxide Total
146.835
181.129
198.062
216.811
237.202
259.731
5.548 0.114 0.593 0.002 0.947
6.195 0.151 0.664 0.002 1.060
6.287 0.144 0.703 0.002 1.087
6.461 0.141 0.749 0.002 1.087
6.711 0.143 0.801 0.002 1.176
7.017 0.148 0.859 0.002 1.234
0.760 154.799
0.891 190.092
0.928 207.213
0.928 207.261
1.030 247.066
1.101 270.093
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Table 6 Sectoral Energy Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Mitigation Scenario (Million GJ) Sectors
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Nonenergy Usage Total
1254.95
1235.66
1216.66
1197.96
1179.55
240.97 1348.55 667.80 185.99 3698.26
266.51 1343.53 708.98 205.70 3760.38
291.33 1341.39 745.31 224.87 3879.77
306.18 1341.79 754.75 236.32 3936.70
312.34 1344.42 743.42 241.08 3963.31
sector was increased by 0.5% growth. Accordingly, it is estimated that Turkey’s population will reach 84.2 million people and GDP-MER will reach to $516.2 billion in 2023. As is seen Table 6, in the case of the mitigation scenario, when the energy demand values are sorted largest to smallest, the highest energy consumption is calculated for the industrial sector, followed by the housing and services, transportation, agriculture, and nonenergy usage sectors. However, the energy consumption of the industrial and housing and services sectors decreases toward 2023. In contrast, transportation, agriculture, and nonenergy usage sectors’ energy demand values continue their increasing trend. According to the developed mitigation scenario, the energy consumption of the housing and services sector will be 1179.55 million GJ at the end of 2023, while it was 1254.95 million GJ in 2011. Compared with the 2011 value, the total decrease rate is about 4.5% in 2023. With about 0.3% total reduction rate, the energy consumption of the industry sector, which was 1348.55 million GJ in 2011, will decrease to 1344.42 million GJ at the end of 2023. In addition, the energy consumption value in the transportation, agricultural, and nonenergy use sectors will increase 743.42 million GJ with a 11.3% increase rate, 312.34 million GJ with a 29.6% increase rate, and 241.08 million GJ with a 29.6% increase rate at the end of 2023. As one of the main energy resources, the electricity energy consumption based on sectors is illustrated in Table 7. In the case of the mitigation scenario, the total electricity consumption in 2020 will increase to 193.88 and 198.01 TWh in 2023. It is forecasted that the electricity demand of the
Table 7 Sectoral Electricity Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Mitigation Scenario (TWh) Sectors Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Total
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
88.07
87.10
86.45
87.26
88.31
4.36 93.90 0.53 186.86
5.55 95.69 0.34 188.68
6.97 96.47 0.36 190.25
8.40 97.85 0.37 193.88
9.81 99.52 0.37 198.01
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Table 8 Greenhouse Gas Effect for Mitigation Scenario (Million Metric Tons of CO2) Emissions
2005
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Carbon dioxide nonbiogenic Carbon monoxide Methane Nitrogen oxides Nitrous oxide Nonmethane volatile organic compounds Sulfur dioxide Total
146.835
181.129
184.428
187.238
187.216
185.138
5.548 0.114 0.593 0.002 0.947
6.195 0.151 0.664 0.002 1.060
6.161 0.131 0.677 0.002 1.073
6.180 0.117 0.690 0.002 1.090
6.070 0.107 0.688 0.002 1.079
5.848 0.099 0.675 0.002 1.044
0.760 154.799
0.891 190.092
0.856 193.328
0.825 196.142
0.799 195.961
0.774 193.580
housing and services sector and industrial sector will reach 88.31 and 99.52 TWh, respectively, in 2023. The electricity demand of the agriculture sector and the transportation sector, which have much smaller rations, will be 9.81 and 0.37 TWh, respectively, at the end of 2023. In the developed mitigation scenario, the total emission value with the increasing energy use will grow to 193.58 million metric tons of CO2 at the end of 2023, while it was 190.01 million metric tons of CO2 in 2011. The carbon dioxide nonbiogenic, which has the highest greenhouse gas effect, will increase to 187.22 million metric tons of CO2 in 2020 and reduce to 185.14 million metric tons of CO2 toward 2023 as shown in Table 8. When we compare the BAU and mitigation scenarios, the BAU scenario is higher than the mitigation scenario in both energy consumption value and greenhouse gas effect.
4.2 ELECTRICITY GENERATION SCENARIOS 4.2.1 Hydro Scenario In this scenario, the aim is that the historical development of used fuels in electricity production will continue but the installed capacity of hydro-based electricity generation will be 45,000 MW in 2023. Accordingly, it can be seen from Fig. 7 that the electricity generation with hydropower will increase to 322.63 TWh with about 41% growth at the end of 2023, while it was 228.57 TWh in 2011.
4.2.2 Nuclear Scenario In the nuclear scenario, in addition to the increase of hydropower generation capacity, it is targeted that Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant with 4800 MW capacity will be activated in 2019 and Sinop Nuclear Power Plant with 1200 MW capacity will be activated in 2023. For these data, step function was used in the LEAP modeling. According to nuclear scenario as seen in Fig. 8, it is predicted that electricity generation will reach 340.46 TWh with about 49% increase rate, and the generation from nuclear energy will be 44.15 TWh.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
FIGURE 7 The fuel ratios of hydro scenario.
FIGURE 8 The fuel ratios of nuclear scenario.
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FIGURE 9 The fuel ratios of geo and wind scenario.
4.2.3 Geo and Wind Scenario In addition to the increase of hydropower generation capacity, in the geo and wind scenario, it is shown that the value of geothermal energy in electricity generation in 2016 and 2023 will reach 300 and 600 MW, respectively. In addition, the value of wind energy in electricity generation in 2016 and 2023 will reach 10,000 and 20,000 MW, respectively. According to this scenario, it is calculated that electricity generation will reach 347.24 TWh with about 52% increase rate. The generation from geothermal energy will be 3.68 TWh and the generation from wind energy will be 87.6 TWh as shown in Fig. 9.
4.2.4 Total Scenario The total scenario consists of the increase of hydropower, nuclear, and geo and wind generation capacity. In addition, it is aimed that the installed capacity of solar energy will reach 3000 MW and natural gas installed capacity will grow to 16,500 MW in 2023. For these data, step function was used in the LEAP modeling. Results are shown in Fig. 10. According to the total scenario, it is estimated that electricity generation will reach 348.34 TWh with about 53% growth rate. The generation from hydro, geothermal, wind, natural gas, solar, and nuclear energy will be 119.56, 3.68, 87.6, 12.67, 9.2, and 44.15 TWh, respectively.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
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FIGURE 10 The fuel ratios of total scenario.
Table 9 A Comparison of the Value of Electricity Generation Scenarios (TWh) Scenarios
2014
2017
2020
2023
Hydro Geo and wind Nuclear Total
240.271 246.279 240.271 247.043
264.636 274.314 264.636 274.795
292.508 308.086 305.152 308.657
322.625 347.243 340.465 348.340
When comparing four electricity generation scenarios, as seen in Table 9, the highest energy generation values were obtained with the total scenario, which combined hydro, geothermal, wind, solar, natural gas, and nuclear energy. This is followed by the geo and wind, nuclear, and hydro scenarios, respectively. When looking at the environmental emission values, the most environmentally friendly scenario is expected to take place with the total scenario as shown in Fig. 11. It is followed by the geo and wind, nuclear, and hydro scenarios.
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FIGURE 11 The greenhouse effect of scenarios.
5. CONCLUSIONS Energy supply and demand forecasts from today’s time frame are significant for investors and energy planners to evaluate energy policies and environmental policies. The importance of energy demand and electricity generation is dealt with in this study. The energy demand and electricity generation of Turkey are estimated according to population and GDP increasing rates toward 2023. Effects of energy consumption are analyzed. The modeling for demand of energy and electricity generation is developed in the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning system program. Two energy demand scenarios and three electricity generation scenarios are built up for energy consumption, power technology, and environmental policies. In the scenarios, the results of energy demand are obtained primarily by the BAU scenario in which everything continues in current conditions and mitigation scenario. In the electricity generation scenarios, hydro, nuclear, geo and wind, and total, energy consumption and emission values are calculated by creating possible future plans with various policies. In this line of study, generating policies for the future and energy management will be possible by planning energy today.
NOMENCLATURE BAU EBST EIA GDP GDP-MER
Business-as-usual Energy balance sheets of Turkey Energy Information Administration Gross domestic product Gross domestic productemarket exchange rate
REFERENCES
GDP-PPP GHG GJ GW GWh kWh IEA LEAP MEANR MW TOE TUIK TWh WEC-TNC
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Gross domestic productepurchasing power parity Greenhouse gas Gigajoule Gigawatt Gigawatt hour Kilowatt hour International Energy Agency Long-range energy alternatives planning Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Megawatt Tons of oil equivalent Turkey Statistical Institute Terawatt hour World Energy CouncileTurkish National Committee
REFERENCES [1] Kavak K. Energy efficiency in the world and in Turkey and analysis of energy efficiency in the Turkish industrial [Dissertation thesis]. Ankara: State Planning Organization (in Turkish); 2005. Publication number: SPO:2689. [2] TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute). TUIK data, Ankara. 2014. Online at: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr. [3] IEA (International Energy Agency). Online at: http://www.iea.org/; 2016. [4] WEC-TNC. The energy balance sheets of Turkey, Ankara. 2014. Online at: http://www.dektmk.org.tr/incele. php?id¼MTAw. [5] MEANR. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Ankara. 2014. Online at: http:// www.enerji.gov.tr/en-US/Mainpage. _ ¨ zer B, Go¨rgu¨n E, Incecik [6] O S. The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006e2030. Energy 2013;49:1e9. [7] Zhang Q, Weili T, Yumei W, Yingxu C. External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios. Energy Policy 2007;35:4295e304. [8] Lin B, Ouyang X. A revisit of fossil-fuel subsidies in China: challenges and opportunities for energy price reform. Energy Conversion and Management 2014;82:124e34. [9] Cai L, Guo J, Zhu L. China’s future power structure analysis based on LEAP. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization and Environmental Effects 2013;35(22):2113e22. [10] Hotunoglu H, Karakaya E. The estimating of Turkey’s energy demand with artificial neural networks: three application scenarios (in Turkish). Ege Akademik Bakı¸s 2011;11:87e94. [11] Dilaver Z, Hunt LC. Turkish aggregate electricity demand. An outlook to 2020. Energy 2011;36:6686e96. [12] Shin H, Park J, Kim H, Shin E. Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model. Energy Policy 2005;33:1261e70. [13] Egelioglu F, Mohamad AA, Gu¨ven H. Economic variables and electricity consumption in Northern Cyprus. Energy 2001;26:335e62. [14] Song HJ, Lee S, Maken S, Ahn SW, Park JW, Min B, Koh W. Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model. Energy Policy 2007;35:5109e16. [15] Ozturk HK, Ceylan H, Canyurt OE, Hepbaslı A. Electricity estimation using genetic algorithm approach: a case study of Turkey. Energy 2005;30:1003e12. [16] Ozturk HK, Ceylan H. Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study. International Journal of Energy Research 2005;29:829e40.
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[17] EIA (Energy Information Administration); 2015. Online at: http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm? fips¼TU. [18] WEC-TNC (World Energy Council-Turkish National Committee). Energy report 2013, Ankara. 2014. Online at: http://www.dektmk.org.tr/. [19] SEI. LEAP long-range energy alternatives planning system; user guide for leap version 2008. 2012. Online at: http://www.energycommunity.org/documents/Leap2008UserGuide English.pdf. [20] WB (The World Bank). Data and statistics for Turkey. 2014. Online at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/ home.aspx.
LONG-TERM ENERGY DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS AND EVALUATIONS FOR TURKEY
1.7 Muhsin Kılıc¸, Esra O¨zdemir Uluda g University, Bursa, Turkey
1. INTRODUCTION Since the beginning of the 20th century, energy has become one of the most significant factors in ensuring that countries have a competitive advantage. In the 21st century, several factors including technological innovations, increasing the permeability of international borders, capital mobility, and development of communication have increased the amount and speed of energy use [1]. The world’s countries have focused on the following: energy resources that are inevitable basic inputs of economic development, sustainable energy policies, ensuring the security of supply and diversifying of energy resources as well as low cost of intended use of energy, being supplied with demanding quantity and quality. The Republic of Turkey, with a population of 78 million and area of 783,562 km2, forms a natural bridge between Europe and Asia [2]. Turkey is a rapidly growing economy, and over the past decade, its gross domestic product (GDP) has increased at a significant rate compared to other Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. According to the International Energy Agency, Turkey is the 17th largest economy of the world [3]. Turkey has experienced considerable changes in its electricity market in the past decades. Rapid growth in the electricity demand has led to considerable transformation in the electricity sector with large increases in the generation capacity to accompany it. According to the energy balance sheets of Turkey (EBST) published by the World Energy Council-Turkish National Committee in 2016, between 2000 and 2013 the electricity demand of Turkey almost doubled and reached to 240,154 GWh [4]. Energy has a strategic importance for developing Turkey. According to Turkey Statistical Institute’s (TUIK) data (2016), Turkey’s energy imports increased to $60.1 billion in 2012. However, this value decreased in the last 2 years to $55.92 and $54.91 billion in 2013 and 2014, respectively [2]. Using these values, it can be concluded that Turkey doesn’t have substantial reserves of conventional fuels. Due to the lack and poor quality of primary resources, Turkey is highly dependent on imported energy. According to the Ministry of Energy, import dependency was above 72% in 2012. This is Exergetic, Energetic and Environmental Dimensions. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813734-5.00007-X Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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underpinned by the dependency on natural gas imports, which account for nearly 43% of total electricity production [5]. There are several hardships that the Turkish energy market faces. The high level of dependence on imported energy sources and the negative externalities caused by the utilization of fossil fuels are the main problems that policy makers will struggle to solve for the immediate future. For this reason, generating policies for the future and energy management should be done by planning energy from today. Turkey has to actualize its own energy security. To this end, according to the report published by Turkey’s Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey’s objectives should include: to diversify its energy supply routes and source countries; to increase the share of renewable energy resources and include nuclear power in its energy mix; take significant steps to increase energy efficiency; and contribute to Europe’s energy security. In addition, within the context of the Kyoto Protocol, Turkey must reduce its CO2 emissions and develop CO2 emissions technology in combating climate change. Thus Turkey should ensure the above policies and especially Turkey should increase the share of renewable energy sources in its electricity generation as a country with rich renewable energy potential. Turkey is implementing new energy targets under “Vision 2023,” its economic development strategy to 2023, the year that marks the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey. The energy goals to 2023 include the promotion of indigenous energy resources, such as coal (lignite) and a 30% share of renewable energy in the electricity mix; the reduction of energy intensity by 20% below 2010 levels through improved efficiency; and the launch of two or three nuclear power plants [5]. Energy demand and supply projections that lead to energy planning and energy policy have gained importance in recent years. Long-term energy supply-and-demand projections constitute the basis of long-term energy planning and investment. The lowest cost for an optimal system to meet energy demands can be determined with energy projections. Thus, it is possible that both energy and financial resources are used more efficiently and possible scenarios can be tested and revised. In the light of this work, decision makers are able to have develop ideas about needed policies and practices for the future from the current situation. Some examples of energy projections in the literature include the following: Zhang et al. [7] calculated the external costs of electricity generation in China under different energy scenarios by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system. They estimated the energy demand in electricity generation of China from 2003 to 2030. Lin and Ouyang [8] evaluated how demand for fossil fuels and carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide in China are affected by the reforms in the country and macroeconomic developments with general equilibrium models that they created. Cai et al. [9] created different scenarios of electricity production models that are cleaner and more efficient use of energy in China from 2010 to 2050 by using LEAP software. Ozer et al. [6] predicted electricity demand until 2030 for Turkey by using the LEAP program and planned electricity production scenarios for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Hotunoglu and Karakaya [10] evaluated the final results by creating a scenario of how energy demand will develop if in the future economic growth is stabilized, energy densities decrease, and economic growth changes in each of 5 years by using an artificial neural networks technique. Dilaver and Hunt [11] estimated Turkish electricity demand depending on GDP, electricity price, and underlying energy demand trend. Shin et al. [12] planned electricity production by creating “projection of being used waste gas (landfill gas)” to produce electricity more environmentally friendly and economically in Korea by using the LEAP model. Egelioglu et al. [13] investigated the influence of economic variables on the annual electricity consumption in northern Cyprus. Song et al. [14] accomplished environmental and economic assessments of chemical absorption processes in Korea using the LEAP model. Ozturk et al. [15] used the genetic algorithm approach to investigate the relationship between total electricity consumption,
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gross national product, population, and imports and exports for the period 1980e2001 in Turkey with annual data. Total electricity demand of Turkey was estimated as 220 and 300 TWh in 2020 with exponential and quadratic forms of the genetic algorithm electricity demand models, respectively. Ozturk and Ceylan [16] estimated the total and industrial sector electricity consumption based on GNP, population, and import and export figures of Turkey by using genetic algorithm approach. The purpose of this chapter is to evaluate the future energy demand, energy supply, and CO2 emission potential of Turkey’s energy sector. For this purpose, firstly, the total energy demand was estimated depending on the six sectors: industrial, residential and services, transport, cycle and energy, agriculture, and nonenergy use. The estimation was based on the population, GDP, and the proportion of each demand sector in total consumption with the annual growth rates. Correspondingly, electricity generation scenarios were built. Two scenarios for energy demand and four scenarios for electricity generation based on the LEAP model were employed to simulate the current energy situation and to develop forecasts under certain assumptions. The demand scenarios include business-as-usual (BAU) and mitigation scenario options. The electricity generation scenarios were created such that the renewable energy resources’ ratios that were solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy, etc. were increased in total energy supply, and their results were evaluated for energy demand and for electricity generation.
2. ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY 2.1 THE STRUCTURE OF THE ENERGY SECTOR IN TURKEY The importance of Turkey continues to increase as a regional energy transit hub and growing consumer in the energy market. According to the Energy Information Administration [17], Turkey’s energy demand has increased very quickly in recent years and it is predicted that this increase will continue in the next years. According to the Energy Report [18], the overall distribution of energy resources in Turkey is such that: • • • •
Turkey has become one of the fastest growing energy markets in the world. Having a substantial potential for producing renewable energy resources, Turkey ranks seventh in the world and first in Europe in terms of geothermal energy. Turkey has targeted increasing the use of hydro, wind, and solar energy resources in electricity generation. Renewable energy and energy efficiency projects are helping to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey.
According to the EBST [4], 120,290,000 tons of oil equivalent (TOE) primary energy supply occurred with 31,944,000 TOE domestic production and 96,001,000 TOE the value of imported energy in 2013. Fig. 1 shows the distribution of sources in total primary energy supply. The highest energy resource was natural gas with the rate of 32%. This value was followed by coal and oil sources with 29% rates. According to Fig. 1, 90% of Turkey’s energy supply is comprised of fossil fuels. Examined on a sectoral basis, 30,866,000 TOE of the energy supply were consumed by the sector of cycle and energy, 89,422,000 TOE were consumed by the sectors of industrial, residential and services, transport, agriculture, and nonenergy use. The highest energy demand took place in the industrial sector and the residential and services sector shown in Table 1. Driven by economic growth,
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Hydro 4%
Geo., wind, solar Wood 2% 2%
Others 2%
Natural gas 32%
Oil 29%
Coal 29%
FIGURE 1 The distribution of sources in Turkey’s primary energy supply [4].
Table 1 Sectoral Energy Consumption of Turkey in 2013 Sectors Industry Transportation Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Nonenergy Usage Cycle and Energy
Energy Consumption (1000 TOE)
Rate (%)
30,137 22,772 31,402
25.1 18.9 26.1
1,633 3,479 30,866
1.4 2.9 25.7
Based on WEC-TNC. The energy balance sheets of Turkey, Ankara; 2014. Online at:http://www.dektmk.org.tr/ incele.php?id¼MTAw.
final consumption of energy has also increased in all sectors, by 29.6% since 2004. Generally, the industrial sector has increased in energy consumption since 2002, although in 2008 and 2009 production decreased due to the global economic crisis in Turkey. However, the value of energy consumption of the industrial sector has continued to rise since 2010 [18].
2.2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN TURKEY According to the EBST, electricity generation and consumption increased more than threefold since 1990. The gross electricity demand of Turkey increased by 6.8% annually from 57,543 GWh (Gigawatt hour) in 1990 to 240,154 GWh in 2013. The total installed capacity of the power industry is
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119
350000 300000 Electricity Energy Generation (GWh)
Electricity value
250000 200000
Installed Capacity (MW)
150000 100000 50000 0
FIGURE 2 Turkey’s installed capacity and electricity energy generation by years [4].
approximately 49.5 GW at the end of 2013, while it was 16.3 GW in 1990. The annual growth rate is about 5.8% as shown in Fig. 2. Production and consumption in 2013, compared to 2012, increased by 0.3% and 1.6%, respectively, as seen in Table 2. When we look at the past 5 years, the change in consumption and peak demand was the average annual level of 5.6%. Compared with the previous 5 years, the decline of increase rate is realized significantly. However, growth in the installed capacity has continued and reached 64,007 MW with an increase of 12%. The Electricity Generation Company with its subsidiaries produces 34% of electric power. As of 2013, the total share of the public sector in the market was 60% and the share of free market production was 40%. The significant contribution of natural gas continues in electricity generation. Consumption of natural gas increased significantly from 1990 to 2013 while the share of natural gas in electricity generation increased from about 18% in 1990 to 43.8% in 2013. Hydro, lignite, and imported coal power plants had shares of 25%, 13%, and 12%, respectively. Table 2 General Electricity Generation and Consumption of Turkey
Installed capacity Peak demand Generation Importation Exportation Consumption
Unit
2011
2012
2011e12 Change (%)
2013
2012e13 Change (%)
MW MW GWh GWh GWh GWh
52,911 36,122 229,395 4,556 3,645 230,306
57,059 39,045 239,497 5,827 2,954 242,370
7.8 8.1 4.4 27.9 19.0 5.2
64,007 38,274 240,154 7,429 1,226 246,356
12.2 2.0 0.3 27.5 58.5 1.6
Based on WEC-TNC. The energy balance sheets of Turkey, Ankara; 2014. Online at:http://www.dektmk.org.tr/incele.php?id¼MTAw.
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3500
Electricity consumption
3000 2500
Net electricity consumption per capita (kWh/person)
2000 1500 1000
Gross electricity consumption per capita (kWh/person)
500 0
FIGURE 3 Electricity consumption per capita by years [4].
According to the EBST [4], electricity consumption per capita increased more than threefold since 1990, as shown in Fig. 3. Net electricity consumption per capita was 2577 kWh/person and 2568 kWh/ person in 2012 and 2013. Gross electricity consumption per capita was 3205 kWh/person and 3132 kWh/person in 2012 and 2013, respectively. When the final electricity demand by sector of Turkey for 2013 is analyzed, Turkey’s energy end use is dominated by the industrial sector, which takes up about 45% of total end use electricity consumption while it was 62.4% in 1990 and has an average annual growth rate of about 5%. The residential sector accounts for about 25%, and the commercial and services sectors follow by a cumulative 27% in 2013.
3. METHODOLOGY In this study, LEAP, which is an accounting and scenario-based modeling program, is used to calculate and evaluate the changes of energy consumption and energy production systems in Turkey. LEAP system is an energyeenvironment modeling platform developed by Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston. LEAP is a software tool that analyzes the effectsdphysical, economic, and environmentaldof alternative energy planning, technologies, and other energy initiatives [14]. LEAP is based on a comprehensive accounting, such as of energy production, conversion, and consumption in a particular region or economy under conditions of alternative assumptions based on population, economic development, technology, price, and so on. LEAP contains four modules: energy scenarios, aggregation, environmental database, and fuel chain as seen from Fig. 4. It gives extensive information indicating the impacts of the environment, costs, technical characteristics of energy technology and also provides the ability to do projections of energy supply and demand for long-term
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
121
FIGURE 4 The structure of LEAP [14].
planning. With the program, possible future problems are identified; perspective is created for the energy supply and demand in future years by evaluating possible effects of energy policy and allows energy planning and policy from today. In addition, an environmental assessment of greenhouse gas emissions arising from energy use can be done [19]. GDP, which expresses the income level of countries, is used as entry data in the creation of projections. In the LEAP model, the gross domestic productepurchasing power parity (GDP-PPP) and the gross domestic productemarket exchange rate (GDP-MER) data for the value of GDP, which were acquired from the World Bank [20], were used. Turkey Statistical Institute population value for population, which is another factor in the increasing of energy demand, was used in the LEAP model. For this data, scenarios was created using the growth rate of population in the newsletter that is “the Demographic Structure and Future of Turkey, 2015e2050” published by TUIK. All of the data was obtained from the EBST, which was entered for the years 1970e2012 in the LEAP model. The energy demand and energy transformation system diagram of the LEAP model that was developed is shown in Fig. 5.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS 4.1.1 Business-as-Usual Scenario In the business-as-usual scenario or base case scenario, the continuation of current economic energy sector trends and policies without any major interventions is assumed. Scenarios were developed based on the historical development of used fuels in energy demand sectors from 1985 to 2012.
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CHAPTER 1.7 SUPPLY PROJECTIONS AND EVALUATIONS FOR TURKEY
FIGURE 5 Energy system diagram of the developed LEAP model.
For the growth rate of Turkey’s population and the growth rate of GDP-MER, 1.25% and 2.9% were used in the scenario. Accordingly, it is estimated that Turkey’s population will reach 86.7 million people and GDP-MER will reach $595.8 billion in 2023. The historical fuel demand of Turkey is illustrated in Fig. 6. As is seen in Fig. 6, according to the BAU scenario, the electricity, natural gas, and oil in the Turkish energy demand continue to be dominant and their energy demand will reach 1056.00 million Gigajoule (GJ), 1527.50 million GJ, and 1780.60 million GJ, respectively, in 2023. In addition, Turkey’s total energy demand in 2023 will be 5475.15 million GJ. The results of energy consumption of the BAU scenario on a sectoral basis are given in Table 3. According to the BAU scenario, the energy consumption of the housing and services sector will be 1818.93 million GJ at the end of 2023, while it was 1254.95 million GJ in 2011. Compared with the 2011 value, the total growth rate is about 45% in 2023. The energy consumption of industry sector will reach 1894.61 million GJ in 2023, while it was 1348.55 million GJ in 2011. Compared with the 2011 value, the total growth rate is about 40.5% in 2023. In the agricultural sector, energy demand will be 525.00 million GJ with a 117% increase at the end of 2013. In the transportation sector, energy
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FIGURE 6 The fuel ratios of energy demand in the business-as-usual scenario.
Table 3 Sectoral Energy Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Business-as-Usual Scenario (Million GJ) Sectors
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Nonenergy Usage Total
1254.95
1376.97
1510.85
1657.75
1818.93
240.97 1348.55 667.80 185.99 3698.26
292.76 1463.84 708.98 222.14 4064.69
355.68 1592.39 754.07 265.32 4478.31
432.13 1735.49 803.58 316.89 4945.84
525.00 1894.61 858.12 378.49 5475.15
demand will be 858.12 million GJ with a 28.5% increase at the end of 2023. In the nonenergy use sector, energy demand will be 378.49 million GJ with a 103% increase at the end of 2023. In the BAU scenario in which everything continues under current conditions, the amount of electrical energy consumption that is consumed by the housing and services, agriculture, industry and transportation sectors was calculated for 2012e23. The sectoral electricity demand of Turkey appears in Table 4. In the BAU scenario, the total electricity consumption in 2020 grows to 259.56 and 293.32 TWh in 2023. Also, it was predicted that for the electricity demand of the housing and services sector the electricity demand of the industrial sector will reach 136.17 TWh with about 54% growth rate, 140.24 TWh with about 49.5% growth in 2023 when compared with the value of 2011 year.
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Table 4 Sectoral Electricity Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Business-as-Usual Scenario (TWh) Sectors
2011
Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Total
2014
2017
2020
2023
88.07
97.06
107.35
120.75
136.17
4.36 93.90 0.53 186.86
6.10 104.26 0.34 207.76
8.51 114.52 0.37 230.75
11.86 126.56 0.39 259.56
16.49 140.24 0.42 293.32
Additionally, the electricity demand of the agriculture sector and transportation sector will reach 16.49 and 0.42 TWh, respectively, at the end of 2023. The calculation of energy-related CO2 emissions for all fuel types from 2011 to 2023 under the BAU scenario is represented in Table 5. The emissions factors, which are carbon dioxide nonbiogenic, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrogen oxides, nitrous oxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide, are directly taken from the technology and environment database in the LEAP program. In Turkey’s energy demand, as expected the most destructive gas is CO2 emissions. In case of BAU, as a result of growing energy consumption, it is estimated that the greenhouse gas effect will produce 247 million metric tons of CO2 in 2020 and 270 million metric tons of CO2 in 2023.
4.1.2 Mitigation Scenario The economic and demographic situation have decreased in the mitigation scenario compare to BAU scenario. It was assumed that the development of Turkey’s economy slowed toward 2023 in this scenario. Hence, the growth rate of Turkey’s population was 1%. The growth rate of GDP-MER was the specific situation as “Growth (2.9%; 2015; 2.5%; 2018; 1.5%; 2020; 0.5%; 2023; 0.5%)” in the projection. The energy demand of the housing and services sector was decreased 1% annually, the energy demand of the industry sector remained constant, and the energy demand of the nonenergy use
Table 5 Greenhouse Gas Effect for Business-as-Usual Scenario (Million Metric Tons of CO2) Emissions
2005
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Carbon dioxide nonbiogenic Carbon monoxide Methane Nitrogen oxides Nitrous oxide Nonmethane volatile organic compounds Sulfur dioxide Total
146.835
181.129
198.062
216.811
237.202
259.731
5.548 0.114 0.593 0.002 0.947
6.195 0.151 0.664 0.002 1.060
6.287 0.144 0.703 0.002 1.087
6.461 0.141 0.749 0.002 1.087
6.711 0.143 0.801 0.002 1.176
7.017 0.148 0.859 0.002 1.234
0.760 154.799
0.891 190.092
0.928 207.213
0.928 207.261
1.030 247.066
1.101 270.093
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Table 6 Sectoral Energy Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Mitigation Scenario (Million GJ) Sectors
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Nonenergy Usage Total
1254.95
1235.66
1216.66
1197.96
1179.55
240.97 1348.55 667.80 185.99 3698.26
266.51 1343.53 708.98 205.70 3760.38
291.33 1341.39 745.31 224.87 3879.77
306.18 1341.79 754.75 236.32 3936.70
312.34 1344.42 743.42 241.08 3963.31
sector was increased by 0.5% growth. Accordingly, it is estimated that Turkey’s population will reach 84.2 million people and GDP-MER will reach to $516.2 billion in 2023. As is seen Table 6, in the case of the mitigation scenario, when the energy demand values are sorted largest to smallest, the highest energy consumption is calculated for the industrial sector, followed by the housing and services, transportation, agriculture, and nonenergy usage sectors. However, the energy consumption of the industrial and housing and services sectors decreases toward 2023. In contrast, transportation, agriculture, and nonenergy usage sectors’ energy demand values continue their increasing trend. According to the developed mitigation scenario, the energy consumption of the housing and services sector will be 1179.55 million GJ at the end of 2023, while it was 1254.95 million GJ in 2011. Compared with the 2011 value, the total decrease rate is about 4.5% in 2023. With about 0.3% total reduction rate, the energy consumption of the industry sector, which was 1348.55 million GJ in 2011, will decrease to 1344.42 million GJ at the end of 2023. In addition, the energy consumption value in the transportation, agricultural, and nonenergy use sectors will increase 743.42 million GJ with a 11.3% increase rate, 312.34 million GJ with a 29.6% increase rate, and 241.08 million GJ with a 29.6% increase rate at the end of 2023. As one of the main energy resources, the electricity energy consumption based on sectors is illustrated in Table 7. In the case of the mitigation scenario, the total electricity consumption in 2020 will increase to 193.88 and 198.01 TWh in 2023. It is forecasted that the electricity demand of the
Table 7 Sectoral Electricity Consumption of Turkey in Upcoming Years for Mitigation Scenario (TWh) Sectors Housing (Residence) and Services Agriculture Industry Transportation Total
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
88.07
87.10
86.45
87.26
88.31
4.36 93.90 0.53 186.86
5.55 95.69 0.34 188.68
6.97 96.47 0.36 190.25
8.40 97.85 0.37 193.88
9.81 99.52 0.37 198.01
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Table 8 Greenhouse Gas Effect for Mitigation Scenario (Million Metric Tons of CO2) Emissions
2005
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Carbon dioxide nonbiogenic Carbon monoxide Methane Nitrogen oxides Nitrous oxide Nonmethane volatile organic compounds Sulfur dioxide Total
146.835
181.129
184.428
187.238
187.216
185.138
5.548 0.114 0.593 0.002 0.947
6.195 0.151 0.664 0.002 1.060
6.161 0.131 0.677 0.002 1.073
6.180 0.117 0.690 0.002 1.090
6.070 0.107 0.688 0.002 1.079
5.848 0.099 0.675 0.002 1.044
0.760 154.799
0.891 190.092
0.856 193.328
0.825 196.142
0.799 195.961
0.774 193.580
housing and services sector and industrial sector will reach 88.31 and 99.52 TWh, respectively, in 2023. The electricity demand of the agriculture sector and the transportation sector, which have much smaller rations, will be 9.81 and 0.37 TWh, respectively, at the end of 2023. In the developed mitigation scenario, the total emission value with the increasing energy use will grow to 193.58 million metric tons of CO2 at the end of 2023, while it was 190.01 million metric tons of CO2 in 2011. The carbon dioxide nonbiogenic, which has the highest greenhouse gas effect, will increase to 187.22 million metric tons of CO2 in 2020 and reduce to 185.14 million metric tons of CO2 toward 2023 as shown in Table 8. When we compare the BAU and mitigation scenarios, the BAU scenario is higher than the mitigation scenario in both energy consumption value and greenhouse gas effect.
4.2 ELECTRICITY GENERATION SCENARIOS 4.2.1 Hydro Scenario In this scenario, the aim is that the historical development of used fuels in electricity production will continue but the installed capacity of hydro-based electricity generation will be 45,000 MW in 2023. Accordingly, it can be seen from Fig. 7 that the electricity generation with hydropower will increase to 322.63 TWh with about 41% growth at the end of 2023, while it was 228.57 TWh in 2011.
4.2.2 Nuclear Scenario In the nuclear scenario, in addition to the increase of hydropower generation capacity, it is targeted that Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant with 4800 MW capacity will be activated in 2019 and Sinop Nuclear Power Plant with 1200 MW capacity will be activated in 2023. For these data, step function was used in the LEAP modeling. According to nuclear scenario as seen in Fig. 8, it is predicted that electricity generation will reach 340.46 TWh with about 49% increase rate, and the generation from nuclear energy will be 44.15 TWh.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
FIGURE 7 The fuel ratios of hydro scenario.
FIGURE 8 The fuel ratios of nuclear scenario.
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FIGURE 9 The fuel ratios of geo and wind scenario.
4.2.3 Geo and Wind Scenario In addition to the increase of hydropower generation capacity, in the geo and wind scenario, it is shown that the value of geothermal energy in electricity generation in 2016 and 2023 will reach 300 and 600 MW, respectively. In addition, the value of wind energy in electricity generation in 2016 and 2023 will reach 10,000 and 20,000 MW, respectively. According to this scenario, it is calculated that electricity generation will reach 347.24 TWh with about 52% increase rate. The generation from geothermal energy will be 3.68 TWh and the generation from wind energy will be 87.6 TWh as shown in Fig. 9.
4.2.4 Total Scenario The total scenario consists of the increase of hydropower, nuclear, and geo and wind generation capacity. In addition, it is aimed that the installed capacity of solar energy will reach 3000 MW and natural gas installed capacity will grow to 16,500 MW in 2023. For these data, step function was used in the LEAP modeling. Results are shown in Fig. 10. According to the total scenario, it is estimated that electricity generation will reach 348.34 TWh with about 53% growth rate. The generation from hydro, geothermal, wind, natural gas, solar, and nuclear energy will be 119.56, 3.68, 87.6, 12.67, 9.2, and 44.15 TWh, respectively.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
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FIGURE 10 The fuel ratios of total scenario.
Table 9 A Comparison of the Value of Electricity Generation Scenarios (TWh) Scenarios
2014
2017
2020
2023
Hydro Geo and wind Nuclear Total
240.271 246.279 240.271 247.043
264.636 274.314 264.636 274.795
292.508 308.086 305.152 308.657
322.625 347.243 340.465 348.340
When comparing four electricity generation scenarios, as seen in Table 9, the highest energy generation values were obtained with the total scenario, which combined hydro, geothermal, wind, solar, natural gas, and nuclear energy. This is followed by the geo and wind, nuclear, and hydro scenarios, respectively. When looking at the environmental emission values, the most environmentally friendly scenario is expected to take place with the total scenario as shown in Fig. 11. It is followed by the geo and wind, nuclear, and hydro scenarios.
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FIGURE 11 The greenhouse effect of scenarios.
5. CONCLUSIONS Energy supply and demand forecasts from today’s time frame are significant for investors and energy planners to evaluate energy policies and environmental policies. The importance of energy demand and electricity generation is dealt with in this study. The energy demand and electricity generation of Turkey are estimated according to population and GDP increasing rates toward 2023. Effects of energy consumption are analyzed. The modeling for demand of energy and electricity generation is developed in the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning system program. Two energy demand scenarios and three electricity generation scenarios are built up for energy consumption, power technology, and environmental policies. In the scenarios, the results of energy demand are obtained primarily by the BAU scenario in which everything continues in current conditions and mitigation scenario. In the electricity generation scenarios, hydro, nuclear, geo and wind, and total, energy consumption and emission values are calculated by creating possible future plans with various policies. In this line of study, generating policies for the future and energy management will be possible by planning energy today.
NOMENCLATURE BAU EBST EIA GDP GDP-MER
Business-as-usual Energy balance sheets of Turkey Energy Information Administration Gross domestic product Gross domestic productemarket exchange rate
REFERENCES
GDP-PPP GHG GJ GW GWh kWh IEA LEAP MEANR MW TOE TUIK TWh WEC-TNC
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Gross domestic productepurchasing power parity Greenhouse gas Gigajoule Gigawatt Gigawatt hour Kilowatt hour International Energy Agency Long-range energy alternatives planning Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Megawatt Tons of oil equivalent Turkey Statistical Institute Terawatt hour World Energy CouncileTurkish National Committee
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