- Email: [email protected]
Long-term perspectives for human settlements
40
LONG-TERM FOR HUMAN
PERSPECTIVES SETTLEMENTS
The future of the Randstad, Netherlands Alfred
the
Dernison
This article deals with a report drawn up under the responsibility of the National Physical Planning Agency, forming the Dutch contribution to the project on Long-Term Perspectives for Human Settlement Developments in the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) region initiated by the UN ECE Committee on Housing, Building and Planning. The report follows a tradition built up by the National Physical Planning Agency in its efforts to compile physical planning scenarios. For this reason an account is given of the Agency’s activities with respect to scenarios. Section 2 deals with decision making concerning the contents of the study. The work process is described in section 3 and the results presented in section 4. In conclusion, some evaluative remarks are made in section 5. Keywords: the Netherlands;
human
settlements;
physical
planning
scenarios
ofthe Ranstad report’ goes back more than ten years. In 1975 the National Physical Planning Agency published Scenarios on behalfof the Ur~an~~~t~on Report. ’ This report described one of the first applications of the scenario method in the Netherlands, namely an application with an identity entirely on its own. In addition to a trend scenario, three contrasting future perspectives were presented, each starting out from a different aspect:
THE HISTORY of 7% F&ure
0 * *
conservation of thcenvironment and energy saving; diminishing social arrears and realization of housing desiderata; ensuring the continuation of urban structures.
By choosing
as starting points objectives
Alfred Dernison National Physical
is at the Planning
00183287/86/010040-12$o3.ooo
relating
Ministerie van Volkshuisvesting, Agency, 2596 BK ‘s-Gravenhage,
1988
and
to the spatial environment
it
Ruimtelijke Ordeningen en Milieubeheer, Willem Witsenplein 6, the Netherlands.
Butterworth&Co(Publishers) Ltd FUTURES February 1996
Long-term perspectivesfor human settlements
41
became possible not just to outline social developments but also to take into Thus the subject came into the sphere of account the spatial consequences. operations of the National Physical Planning Agency. However, the work encountered some teething troubles and consequently met-apart from appreciation-with strong criticism. In effect, the most fundamental criticism was that the method was weakly developed and that in places the authors had allowed themselves to be be led by geographical determinism. Despite the shortcomings exhibited by this first attempt, the Agency wanted to continue using the scenario method. For this reason the Sociological Institute of Utrecht State University was commissioned in 1977 to carry out an investigation into the scenario method. The investigation was to be in three parts. First, an analysis of present-day society, in which an indication would be given of the developments that had led to the present state, and an attempt made to indicate which developments would remain in force for the next ten years. Second, the compilation of a guide for designing scenarios. Third, working out alternative future perspectives, indicating at the same time the spatial consequences of the social developments. This was not exactly a simple task for the research team. On the one hand there were differences of opinion in regard to the question of whether efforts should be directed towards indicating the limits to the development or rather to new social possibilities. On the other hand the principal urged that a close eye be an aspect perhaps not quite so familiar to kept on spatial consequences, sociologists. The team completed the project in 1981. Apart from the experience gained with working on a major scenario project (many students in Utrecht found a job concerned with future-related research) the most important result was the completion of a scenario-writing manual.3 In the manual a scenario is defined as: a description of the current state of a society (or a part thereof), of possible and desirable future states of that society, as well as of series of events, which would lead from the current state to those future states. In the Utrecht 0 0 0 l
vision a scenario
project comprises
four parts:
analysis of the current state-the basic analysis; studying possible developments-the study of limitations; designing possible and desirable future states-the target perspectives; and designing series of events that could lead from the curret state to those future states-the target processes.
Developing future perspectives is regarded as a cyclical process. This amounts to working out a design on the strength of a basic analysis and a study of limitations. This design raises fresh queries in regard to the basic analysis and the study of limitations, of which the results are reflected in a new design phase. This again raises fresh queries and a following cycle is completed. According to the manual, four cycles in all are run through before the design is completed. Although various remarks worthy of consideration are made for which allowance must be made in the design, the process itself remains somewhat in the dark. The authors speak of the creativity of the designer, which takes place in a black box.
FUTURES February 1999
Decisions in respect of the ECE framework Some members of what was known as the Group of Experts on Urban and Regional Planning met in Budapest in August 1981 to lay down the course for scenario studies that would be presented at a Congress of the ECE Committee on Housing, Building and Planning in 1983. Three possible subjects were formulated. One of them was, ‘The development of cities and agglomerations’, including questions of regional balance (concentration and deconcentration of settlements) up to the end of the century. This was the subject chosen by the Netherlands. Like the choices made by the others, this choice was motivated by topical problems in the sphere of spatial developments and policy. As a matter of fact the spatial development of the Netherlands has, since World War II, been characterized by a policy to reduce the congestion in the conurbation of the large cities in the west of the Netherlands, briefly known as the Randstad, by spreading the population over the rest of the Netherlands and absorbing the remainder of the surplus population in new towns close to the Randstad. In the second half of the 1970s it became evident that as regards this policy the tide was beginning to turn. After 1980, physical planning began to show a growing interest in the compact city, while in economic circles the call for strengthening the position of the Randstad became steadily louder. Against this background, the need was felt for a short-term project starting out from the scenario experience gained and involving various likely future perspectives relating to the Randstad. The international work arrangements were made at Schloss Laxenburg near Vienna in January 1982, the meeting being hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The Netherlands, which together with Hungary acted as leading country for the project, made an attempt at the meeting to bring the various participants into line. Among other things, the scenario manual was presented on this occasion. However, the backgrounds of the participants appeared to be so different as to make it impossible to arrive at a common set-up. One point agreed was to confine the basic analysis to seven factors, ui.z demography, economy, sociocultural developments, institutions, technology, energy and raw materials, and environment. Finally, it was arranged that a symposium at which the scenarios were to be shown would be held in the Netherlands in November 198‘2.
The work process main concern-as leading When elaborating the project, the Netherlands’ country for the project -was that the different arrangements made by individual participants should be adhered to closely. This implied that the project had to be contained within a number of strict limiting guidelines: 0 0
there would be question of a new project, not of something that was ‘still on the shelf’ ; there was question of a short-term project; it could not be started until FUTURES February 1986
*
0
February 1981 and the report had to be ready early in November of that year; the study would commence with a basic analysis, which in addition to a historical outline was centred around the seven factors determined in Laxenburg; and apart from a trend scenario, concentration and distribution patterns would be drawn up as contrasting scenarios.
The team that would carry out the study was composed on the basis of expertise in the field of one or more factors that would come up in the basic analysis. Considering the brief duration of the project the participants were not expected to carry out field work on behalf of the project. They had to possess insight into recent developments and have recent research results within reach. External expertise was recruited for history, economics, raw materials and energy, and sociocultural developments. As regards demography, administrative science, environment and spatial developments the National Physical Planning Agency had sufficient expertise available on the premises. The design cycle, as outlined in the manual, was in rough outline run through twice. In June 1981 an initial set-up of the basic analysis was ready for checking against the initial set-up of the scenarios. A rough draft of the basic analysis was ready in October and the group retired for a three-day working party to elaborate the scenarios. An interesting feature of this party was that the elaboration of the scenarios was divided over the team members in such a way that each member worked on the perspective to which he felt the most attracted. The problems of subjectivity which crept in as a result of this could be ironed out largely in the subsequent plenary discussions. Results of the study.-basic
analysis
In the study, a strong emphasis was placed on the basic analysis. A lot of information and insights that come up in the basic analysis are familiar and definitely not specific to the Netherlands. As basic material for the scenariowriting they were indispensable, but that is no reason to repeat them and thus only a few salient points will be discussed. In the historical outline one of the points discussed is the specific urban structure of the Netherlands, not a single metropolis, but a ring of large and mediumsized cities with a rural area in the middle. This structure owes its existence to a lasting feudal administration and a situation on a delta formed by large rivers. Recent developments appear to be strongly characterized by suburbanization and distribution of large-scale employment. As regards the factor economy, attention is drawn to the steadily strengthening dualistic structure of industry. There is question of a concentration process of a limited number of multinational concerns with a high productivity and a high R&D capability. The role of medium-sized concerns is not unimportant, but quite a number of them is directly or indirectly interwoven with Netherl~ds multinationals. Demographically, it is significant that the Netherlands, which until recently had a fast-growing population, is now on the way to a stable population figure FUTURES February 1996
which, however, will not be reached until at the earliest around the turn of the century. The rapid increase in the number of small households will, for the near future, still lead to a substantial growth of housing needs. From the u~m~n~strutive point of view a growing doubt in regard to the welfare state and its planning capacity is becoming noticeable. A dominant trend aims in the direction of the “minimal state” . The perspectives for the administration of the large cities would thus present little reason for optimism. An innovative form of administration, in which administrative tasks are reallocated, often going from national to middle or local level, but also the other way round, might offer perspectives. As far as energy is concerned it is pointed out that nuclear energy will become of great importance economically. This need not necessarily imply that a lot of nuclear power stations will be established in the Netherlands. The majority of energy requirements will probably be met by importing energy from those countries which have already made large investments in nuclear energy. Finally, as regards the environment, the findings are a source of anxiety. Partly as a result of polluted air being blown over the neighbouring countries high air pollution figures are being registered. The rain has the highest acidity in Europe. Yet, the consequences are still relatively favourable. The often windy climate prevents the formation of lasting smog problems, while the eutrophic surface water forms a natural buffer against the acid rain. The soil is apparently being badly polluted on account of the highly industrialized agriculture, which makes excessive use of fertilizers. The basic analysis finally enables some conclusions to be drawn, which are of direct importance for the set-up of the scenarios: With the prospect of a stabilizing population the risk of overpopulation of the Randstad is not so serious as was assumed in the past. For the near future no repetition of the extremely high figures for economic growth, which occurred in the sixties and in the early seventies, is to be expected. As regards the sociocultural developments it is not unlikely that there will be a question of a certain measure of anomy. The technological developments can influence the spatial pattern, but many authors overestimate the possibilities in this respect. The factor environment will only play a secondary role with respect to the urban developments. The Randstad 2010 trend scenario The trend scenario is a pessimistic one. The image depicted is, inter alia the result of continuation of the economic recession which confronted Europe in the early 1980s. It shows a level of GNP in 2000 which is lower than that in 1973, the year of the oil crisis, while-after a slight recovery around that year-it entails an economic situation in 2010 which is only just equal to that in 1973. The population of the Netherlands, which has grown rather quickly from five million in 1900 to 14.4 million in 1983, will gradually reach its maximum in the next 30 years. This maximum will amount to approximately 15.8 million FUTURES February 1986
areas
more or less urbanised
oreos with suburban m
existing
I
rural areos
characters
cities anno 1980
Figure 1. The Randstad
in 2010, a trend scenario.
inhabitants. After the year 2010, or thereabouts, it is expected that the population of the Netherlands will decrease. Unemployment increases in this scenario. In spite of measures to keep down the level of unemployment (eg by shortening working hours) competition on the
FUTURES February 1986
46
Long-term perspectivesfor
human settlements
labour market remains fierce. This causes uncertainty among the active population (especially among young people) and is as such at the root of outbursts of social and political unrest. This situation will determine to a large degree the atmosphere in the cities and urban regions in an urbanized area like the Randstad Holland. In the field of physical planning the institutional forces will no longer be able to stop developments which are in conflict with old and sanctified policies. The settlements pattern in the Randstad slowly but gradually expands inwards, while urbanization is increasingly encroaching on the open space of the Randstad conurbation. In principle, occupation of the open space is spontaneous. In spite of their lower incomes, people will pay the high cost of transport in order to be able to live in the countryside. This means that-little by little-the so-called “growth centres”, intended to absorb the overspill of population from the “donor cities”, play a diminishing role in the minds of those looking for a place to live and work. An important factor in this scenario is formed by large and medium sized enterprises and their location preferences. The cities and agglomeration in the Randstad do remain attractive for economic activities also in the future. In particular the large concerns (ie the multinationals) will keep their headquarters mainly in the Randstad. Small and medium-sized companies, having their own product or technology, ie firms that maintain a certain design leadership in their field, will also show a strong preference for a location in the Randstad. The same applies to consultancy firms specializing in aspects of international business. For all these enterprises the disadvantages of the Randstad (congestion, air pollution, noise, etc) will be taken for granted. In the recent past certain signs of ‘filling up’ the open space have already been observed. These developments will continue. Initially, we shall see a gradual occupation of the buffer zones between the cities. Gradually also the open space within and directly outside the conurbation will be used as a space for living and working. Compact cities scenario This scenario attempts as much as possible to conserve and to restrengthen the traditional functions and the unique character of the Randstad as a metropolis with a polycentric spatial structure. At the same time it aims at restoring the traditional regional functions of large cities. The main considerations at the heart of this scenario are: 0 0
The rate of economic growth is low. The proposed settlement pattern takes into account the strategic position of the Randstad in the global economy, ie at the international crossroads. This position as an industrial and trade centre with global functions should be conserved, without creating a living environment unworthy of human beings.
The modern city is an important product of Western culture in that it represents basic elements of our ‘way of life’ such as individualism, pluriformity and diversity. In this scenario the under-utilization of the existing urban fabric, FUTURES February 1988
Lcwg-term perspectivesfor human settlements
m
urban
I
rural
47
oreos oreas
Figure 2. Compact
cities,
a scenario
of concentrated
settlements.
possibly even the loss of cultural values embodied in the structures of existing cities, is thought to be too high a price to pay. The central functions of the cities will thus be strengthened. The cities Amsterdam, Hilversum, Rotterdam, Dordrecht, The Hague, Leiden and Haarlem will function as centres of the Randstad. New locations for housing are situated as much as possible within the city boundaries or otherwise near the large cities. Vacant areas within the cities will be filled in as much as
FUTURES February 1988
possible, which will lead to an increased building density. Adequate amenities will be necessary in each neighbourhood in order to meet the demand for leisure activities. Amenities taking up little space (workshops, theatres, small-scale sports facilities) are located in the residential neighbourhoods. To maximize the use of the different elements that make up city life, optimum accessibility to facilities has to be guaranteed. Public transport will be given priority. Industry and services will be concentrated in or near the main centres. Such a development is made possible, because large-scale plants with production functions can now, owing to automation, be located along the periphery, while more small-scale and ‘clean’ production functions can be attracted to the large cities. Between the main centres of the Randstad a certain amount of functional differentiation is furthered. Dispersed cities scenario The basic principle of the third scenario is that the trend towards a further deconcentration of economic activities from the large towns of the Randstad to medium-sized towns in the vicinity of the Randstad will be strengthened by national policy. A number of selected medium-sized towns will be developed in a balanced way: the expansion of employment will be accompanied by largescale housing programmes, by the development of recreational facilities and by the protection of open space in the surroundings. The expansion of these medium-sized towns will benefit from the existence of major infrastructure (most of these towns are already connected to the railway and highway networks, some of them to waterways). The scenario provides for a great diversity in locational possibilities, both for households and for economic activities. Realization of the scenario will be facilitated by a reasonable level of general economic development and by a further decentralization of administrative powers. The definition of the Randstad used in this scenario is a wider concept than that traditionally based on morphological criteria. It includes the areas which seem to possess an important development potential, ie the area surrounding the main centres, as well as areas with exceptional locational advantages from the point of view of international transport. The main centres are the four large cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht) and the centres of technological development are Eindhoven, Wageningen, Enschede. While centres will continue to play important economic roles and a not inconsiderable part of economic activities will disperse throughout their spheres of influence. The deconcentrated settlement pattern proposed in this scenario includes the medium-sized towns (with a population above 30000 situated within a distance of 70km from the centres mentioned. The main centres will specialize in management functions, international activities, banks, research and development, cultural activities and high-level public administration. Their living environment will be improved through urban renewal, which entails improvement of housing stock, decongestion of older densely built-up areas, and expansion of green areas within the towns. Recreational facilities will be provided and improved in the immediate vicinity of the large urban centres and medium-sized towns selected for expansion. The
FUTURES February 1988
II I
urban
.--
boundary
rural
ureas areas
Figure 3. Dispersed
For deconcentrotion settlements,
policy
a scenario of a deconcentrated
pattern.
final stage of the scenario shows decongested large towns, which will remain the main cultural centres of the country and specialize in high-level activities. A number of medium-sized towns will have expanded on the basis of existing infrastructure and services and local initiative. The whole process will be supported by national policy. Traffic flows will be distributed over a large
FUTURES F&wry
1986
50
Long-term perspectiuesfor human settlements
number of roads and railways. Recreational towns will be put to intensive use on account
facilities in the proximity of the of their being readily accessible.
Evaluation It is now more
than
three
yeas ago that the study was rounded
would seem to be ripe to look back, but more especially If we regard scenario studies as a vehicle for discussion
off and the time
to look ahead. in processes involving
a choice from policy alternatives, this study has fulfilled its (modest) function. Within the ECE framework it is difficult to estimate its exact significance. In Budapest the scenarios were not tabled for discussion individually, they were summarized in provisional recommendations by Unfortunately,
the angle of approach
chosen
does more justice
but instead rapporteurs.
to the integration
of problem identification than to that of future perspectives. In the Netherlands, however, the study has reached the discussion stage and gave rise to questions to the Minister
on the subject
of physical
planning
policy.
This
does not alter the
fact that on a number of points, the study is now out of date. This is the case in the first place where the population growth is concerned. The Central Bureau for Statistics is now developing new population forecasts, which promise an appreciably smaller growth This means that the accent will be much less development and much more on management ment. In the scenarios the controlling role of exaggerated,
more
than
would
seem
justified
than was assumed in this study. on new construction and urban of the existing built-up environthe government has been rather after
a term
of administration
during which a policy of deregulation was held very high. The fact that the design of the future perspectives was completed the formation
of the Lubbers
Cabinet
would
The question that remains, however, National Physical Planning Agency, which
on the eve of
seem to avenge itself here.4 is whether an institution like possesses
policy
powers
the
in its own
sphere of work, can avoid introducing control as a variable in its study. Further hiatuses can be indicated as regards method as well. The study is based on the influence another.
of seven factors. These factors have been treated separately from one For analyses relating to future developments, however, the mutual
influencing of these factors is of great importance. Closer attention will have to be paid to this
in further
studies
of future
developments. Although the interest in prospective thinking in the Netherlands seems to be declining, new studies of the future are under way. The National Physical Planning Agency now has a scenario study in respect of the effects of changes in working hours in hand. The Sociological Institute of Utrecht, authors of the scenario manual, are busy with the development of future perspectives in respect of the significance of ageing of the population for public health. All in all sufficient reason to draw the necessary conclusions from former studies of future developments in order to be able to work out better ones, likely to contribute towards a better future. Notes and references 1. The Future of the Rand&d August 1983.
Holland,
Studierapporten Rijksplanologische Dienst 23, The Hague,
FUTURES February 1996
Long-term perspectives forhuman settlements
2. Scenario’s ten behoeve van de Verstedelijkingsnota, Studierapporten Rijksplanologische Hague, June 1975. 3. Handfeiding voor het ontwerpen van scenario’s, Studierapporten Rijksplanologische Hague, May 1981; Scenario design hand-book, European Conference of Ministers Regional Planning, Mat-GE Prosp (81)5, Strasbourg, February 1982. 4. Ruud Lubbers, Prime Minister since 1982.
FUTURES February 1986
51
Dienst 3, The Dienst 18, The Responsible for
LONG-TERM FOR HUMAN
PERSPECTIVES SETTLEMENTS
The future of the Randstad, Netherlands Alfred
the
Dernison
This article deals with a report drawn up under the responsibility of the National Physical Planning Agency, forming the Dutch contribution to the project on Long-Term Perspectives for Human Settlement Developments in the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE) region initiated by the UN ECE Committee on Housing, Building and Planning. The report follows a tradition built up by the National Physical Planning Agency in its efforts to compile physical planning scenarios. For this reason an account is given of the Agency’s activities with respect to scenarios. Section 2 deals with decision making concerning the contents of the study. The work process is described in section 3 and the results presented in section 4. In conclusion, some evaluative remarks are made in section 5. Keywords: the Netherlands;
human
settlements;
physical
planning
scenarios
ofthe Ranstad report’ goes back more than ten years. In 1975 the National Physical Planning Agency published Scenarios on behalfof the Ur~an~~~t~on Report. ’ This report described one of the first applications of the scenario method in the Netherlands, namely an application with an identity entirely on its own. In addition to a trend scenario, three contrasting future perspectives were presented, each starting out from a different aspect:
THE HISTORY of 7% F&ure
0 * *
conservation of thcenvironment and energy saving; diminishing social arrears and realization of housing desiderata; ensuring the continuation of urban structures.
By choosing
as starting points objectives
Alfred Dernison National Physical
is at the Planning
00183287/86/010040-12$o3.ooo
relating
Ministerie van Volkshuisvesting, Agency, 2596 BK ‘s-Gravenhage,
1988
and
to the spatial environment
it
Ruimtelijke Ordeningen en Milieubeheer, Willem Witsenplein 6, the Netherlands.
Butterworth&Co(Publishers) Ltd FUTURES February 1996
Long-term perspectivesfor human settlements
41
became possible not just to outline social developments but also to take into Thus the subject came into the sphere of account the spatial consequences. operations of the National Physical Planning Agency. However, the work encountered some teething troubles and consequently met-apart from appreciation-with strong criticism. In effect, the most fundamental criticism was that the method was weakly developed and that in places the authors had allowed themselves to be be led by geographical determinism. Despite the shortcomings exhibited by this first attempt, the Agency wanted to continue using the scenario method. For this reason the Sociological Institute of Utrecht State University was commissioned in 1977 to carry out an investigation into the scenario method. The investigation was to be in three parts. First, an analysis of present-day society, in which an indication would be given of the developments that had led to the present state, and an attempt made to indicate which developments would remain in force for the next ten years. Second, the compilation of a guide for designing scenarios. Third, working out alternative future perspectives, indicating at the same time the spatial consequences of the social developments. This was not exactly a simple task for the research team. On the one hand there were differences of opinion in regard to the question of whether efforts should be directed towards indicating the limits to the development or rather to new social possibilities. On the other hand the principal urged that a close eye be an aspect perhaps not quite so familiar to kept on spatial consequences, sociologists. The team completed the project in 1981. Apart from the experience gained with working on a major scenario project (many students in Utrecht found a job concerned with future-related research) the most important result was the completion of a scenario-writing manual.3 In the manual a scenario is defined as: a description of the current state of a society (or a part thereof), of possible and desirable future states of that society, as well as of series of events, which would lead from the current state to those future states. In the Utrecht 0 0 0 l
vision a scenario
project comprises
four parts:
analysis of the current state-the basic analysis; studying possible developments-the study of limitations; designing possible and desirable future states-the target perspectives; and designing series of events that could lead from the curret state to those future states-the target processes.
Developing future perspectives is regarded as a cyclical process. This amounts to working out a design on the strength of a basic analysis and a study of limitations. This design raises fresh queries in regard to the basic analysis and the study of limitations, of which the results are reflected in a new design phase. This again raises fresh queries and a following cycle is completed. According to the manual, four cycles in all are run through before the design is completed. Although various remarks worthy of consideration are made for which allowance must be made in the design, the process itself remains somewhat in the dark. The authors speak of the creativity of the designer, which takes place in a black box.
FUTURES February 1999
Decisions in respect of the ECE framework Some members of what was known as the Group of Experts on Urban and Regional Planning met in Budapest in August 1981 to lay down the course for scenario studies that would be presented at a Congress of the ECE Committee on Housing, Building and Planning in 1983. Three possible subjects were formulated. One of them was, ‘The development of cities and agglomerations’, including questions of regional balance (concentration and deconcentration of settlements) up to the end of the century. This was the subject chosen by the Netherlands. Like the choices made by the others, this choice was motivated by topical problems in the sphere of spatial developments and policy. As a matter of fact the spatial development of the Netherlands has, since World War II, been characterized by a policy to reduce the congestion in the conurbation of the large cities in the west of the Netherlands, briefly known as the Randstad, by spreading the population over the rest of the Netherlands and absorbing the remainder of the surplus population in new towns close to the Randstad. In the second half of the 1970s it became evident that as regards this policy the tide was beginning to turn. After 1980, physical planning began to show a growing interest in the compact city, while in economic circles the call for strengthening the position of the Randstad became steadily louder. Against this background, the need was felt for a short-term project starting out from the scenario experience gained and involving various likely future perspectives relating to the Randstad. The international work arrangements were made at Schloss Laxenburg near Vienna in January 1982, the meeting being hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The Netherlands, which together with Hungary acted as leading country for the project, made an attempt at the meeting to bring the various participants into line. Among other things, the scenario manual was presented on this occasion. However, the backgrounds of the participants appeared to be so different as to make it impossible to arrive at a common set-up. One point agreed was to confine the basic analysis to seven factors, ui.z demography, economy, sociocultural developments, institutions, technology, energy and raw materials, and environment. Finally, it was arranged that a symposium at which the scenarios were to be shown would be held in the Netherlands in November 198‘2.
The work process main concern-as leading When elaborating the project, the Netherlands’ country for the project -was that the different arrangements made by individual participants should be adhered to closely. This implied that the project had to be contained within a number of strict limiting guidelines: 0 0
there would be question of a new project, not of something that was ‘still on the shelf’ ; there was question of a short-term project; it could not be started until FUTURES February 1986
*
0
February 1981 and the report had to be ready early in November of that year; the study would commence with a basic analysis, which in addition to a historical outline was centred around the seven factors determined in Laxenburg; and apart from a trend scenario, concentration and distribution patterns would be drawn up as contrasting scenarios.
The team that would carry out the study was composed on the basis of expertise in the field of one or more factors that would come up in the basic analysis. Considering the brief duration of the project the participants were not expected to carry out field work on behalf of the project. They had to possess insight into recent developments and have recent research results within reach. External expertise was recruited for history, economics, raw materials and energy, and sociocultural developments. As regards demography, administrative science, environment and spatial developments the National Physical Planning Agency had sufficient expertise available on the premises. The design cycle, as outlined in the manual, was in rough outline run through twice. In June 1981 an initial set-up of the basic analysis was ready for checking against the initial set-up of the scenarios. A rough draft of the basic analysis was ready in October and the group retired for a three-day working party to elaborate the scenarios. An interesting feature of this party was that the elaboration of the scenarios was divided over the team members in such a way that each member worked on the perspective to which he felt the most attracted. The problems of subjectivity which crept in as a result of this could be ironed out largely in the subsequent plenary discussions. Results of the study.-basic
analysis
In the study, a strong emphasis was placed on the basic analysis. A lot of information and insights that come up in the basic analysis are familiar and definitely not specific to the Netherlands. As basic material for the scenariowriting they were indispensable, but that is no reason to repeat them and thus only a few salient points will be discussed. In the historical outline one of the points discussed is the specific urban structure of the Netherlands, not a single metropolis, but a ring of large and mediumsized cities with a rural area in the middle. This structure owes its existence to a lasting feudal administration and a situation on a delta formed by large rivers. Recent developments appear to be strongly characterized by suburbanization and distribution of large-scale employment. As regards the factor economy, attention is drawn to the steadily strengthening dualistic structure of industry. There is question of a concentration process of a limited number of multinational concerns with a high productivity and a high R&D capability. The role of medium-sized concerns is not unimportant, but quite a number of them is directly or indirectly interwoven with Netherl~ds multinationals. Demographically, it is significant that the Netherlands, which until recently had a fast-growing population, is now on the way to a stable population figure FUTURES February 1996
which, however, will not be reached until at the earliest around the turn of the century. The rapid increase in the number of small households will, for the near future, still lead to a substantial growth of housing needs. From the u~m~n~strutive point of view a growing doubt in regard to the welfare state and its planning capacity is becoming noticeable. A dominant trend aims in the direction of the “minimal state” . The perspectives for the administration of the large cities would thus present little reason for optimism. An innovative form of administration, in which administrative tasks are reallocated, often going from national to middle or local level, but also the other way round, might offer perspectives. As far as energy is concerned it is pointed out that nuclear energy will become of great importance economically. This need not necessarily imply that a lot of nuclear power stations will be established in the Netherlands. The majority of energy requirements will probably be met by importing energy from those countries which have already made large investments in nuclear energy. Finally, as regards the environment, the findings are a source of anxiety. Partly as a result of polluted air being blown over the neighbouring countries high air pollution figures are being registered. The rain has the highest acidity in Europe. Yet, the consequences are still relatively favourable. The often windy climate prevents the formation of lasting smog problems, while the eutrophic surface water forms a natural buffer against the acid rain. The soil is apparently being badly polluted on account of the highly industrialized agriculture, which makes excessive use of fertilizers. The basic analysis finally enables some conclusions to be drawn, which are of direct importance for the set-up of the scenarios: With the prospect of a stabilizing population the risk of overpopulation of the Randstad is not so serious as was assumed in the past. For the near future no repetition of the extremely high figures for economic growth, which occurred in the sixties and in the early seventies, is to be expected. As regards the sociocultural developments it is not unlikely that there will be a question of a certain measure of anomy. The technological developments can influence the spatial pattern, but many authors overestimate the possibilities in this respect. The factor environment will only play a secondary role with respect to the urban developments. The Randstad 2010 trend scenario The trend scenario is a pessimistic one. The image depicted is, inter alia the result of continuation of the economic recession which confronted Europe in the early 1980s. It shows a level of GNP in 2000 which is lower than that in 1973, the year of the oil crisis, while-after a slight recovery around that year-it entails an economic situation in 2010 which is only just equal to that in 1973. The population of the Netherlands, which has grown rather quickly from five million in 1900 to 14.4 million in 1983, will gradually reach its maximum in the next 30 years. This maximum will amount to approximately 15.8 million FUTURES February 1986
areas
more or less urbanised
oreos with suburban m
existing
I
rural areos
characters
cities anno 1980
Figure 1. The Randstad
in 2010, a trend scenario.
inhabitants. After the year 2010, or thereabouts, it is expected that the population of the Netherlands will decrease. Unemployment increases in this scenario. In spite of measures to keep down the level of unemployment (eg by shortening working hours) competition on the
FUTURES February 1986
46
Long-term perspectivesfor
human settlements
labour market remains fierce. This causes uncertainty among the active population (especially among young people) and is as such at the root of outbursts of social and political unrest. This situation will determine to a large degree the atmosphere in the cities and urban regions in an urbanized area like the Randstad Holland. In the field of physical planning the institutional forces will no longer be able to stop developments which are in conflict with old and sanctified policies. The settlements pattern in the Randstad slowly but gradually expands inwards, while urbanization is increasingly encroaching on the open space of the Randstad conurbation. In principle, occupation of the open space is spontaneous. In spite of their lower incomes, people will pay the high cost of transport in order to be able to live in the countryside. This means that-little by little-the so-called “growth centres”, intended to absorb the overspill of population from the “donor cities”, play a diminishing role in the minds of those looking for a place to live and work. An important factor in this scenario is formed by large and medium sized enterprises and their location preferences. The cities and agglomeration in the Randstad do remain attractive for economic activities also in the future. In particular the large concerns (ie the multinationals) will keep their headquarters mainly in the Randstad. Small and medium-sized companies, having their own product or technology, ie firms that maintain a certain design leadership in their field, will also show a strong preference for a location in the Randstad. The same applies to consultancy firms specializing in aspects of international business. For all these enterprises the disadvantages of the Randstad (congestion, air pollution, noise, etc) will be taken for granted. In the recent past certain signs of ‘filling up’ the open space have already been observed. These developments will continue. Initially, we shall see a gradual occupation of the buffer zones between the cities. Gradually also the open space within and directly outside the conurbation will be used as a space for living and working. Compact cities scenario This scenario attempts as much as possible to conserve and to restrengthen the traditional functions and the unique character of the Randstad as a metropolis with a polycentric spatial structure. At the same time it aims at restoring the traditional regional functions of large cities. The main considerations at the heart of this scenario are: 0 0
The rate of economic growth is low. The proposed settlement pattern takes into account the strategic position of the Randstad in the global economy, ie at the international crossroads. This position as an industrial and trade centre with global functions should be conserved, without creating a living environment unworthy of human beings.
The modern city is an important product of Western culture in that it represents basic elements of our ‘way of life’ such as individualism, pluriformity and diversity. In this scenario the under-utilization of the existing urban fabric, FUTURES February 1988
Lcwg-term perspectivesfor human settlements
m
urban
I
rural
47
oreos oreas
Figure 2. Compact
cities,
a scenario
of concentrated
settlements.
possibly even the loss of cultural values embodied in the structures of existing cities, is thought to be too high a price to pay. The central functions of the cities will thus be strengthened. The cities Amsterdam, Hilversum, Rotterdam, Dordrecht, The Hague, Leiden and Haarlem will function as centres of the Randstad. New locations for housing are situated as much as possible within the city boundaries or otherwise near the large cities. Vacant areas within the cities will be filled in as much as
FUTURES February 1988
possible, which will lead to an increased building density. Adequate amenities will be necessary in each neighbourhood in order to meet the demand for leisure activities. Amenities taking up little space (workshops, theatres, small-scale sports facilities) are located in the residential neighbourhoods. To maximize the use of the different elements that make up city life, optimum accessibility to facilities has to be guaranteed. Public transport will be given priority. Industry and services will be concentrated in or near the main centres. Such a development is made possible, because large-scale plants with production functions can now, owing to automation, be located along the periphery, while more small-scale and ‘clean’ production functions can be attracted to the large cities. Between the main centres of the Randstad a certain amount of functional differentiation is furthered. Dispersed cities scenario The basic principle of the third scenario is that the trend towards a further deconcentration of economic activities from the large towns of the Randstad to medium-sized towns in the vicinity of the Randstad will be strengthened by national policy. A number of selected medium-sized towns will be developed in a balanced way: the expansion of employment will be accompanied by largescale housing programmes, by the development of recreational facilities and by the protection of open space in the surroundings. The expansion of these medium-sized towns will benefit from the existence of major infrastructure (most of these towns are already connected to the railway and highway networks, some of them to waterways). The scenario provides for a great diversity in locational possibilities, both for households and for economic activities. Realization of the scenario will be facilitated by a reasonable level of general economic development and by a further decentralization of administrative powers. The definition of the Randstad used in this scenario is a wider concept than that traditionally based on morphological criteria. It includes the areas which seem to possess an important development potential, ie the area surrounding the main centres, as well as areas with exceptional locational advantages from the point of view of international transport. The main centres are the four large cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht) and the centres of technological development are Eindhoven, Wageningen, Enschede. While centres will continue to play important economic roles and a not inconsiderable part of economic activities will disperse throughout their spheres of influence. The deconcentrated settlement pattern proposed in this scenario includes the medium-sized towns (with a population above 30000 situated within a distance of 70km from the centres mentioned. The main centres will specialize in management functions, international activities, banks, research and development, cultural activities and high-level public administration. Their living environment will be improved through urban renewal, which entails improvement of housing stock, decongestion of older densely built-up areas, and expansion of green areas within the towns. Recreational facilities will be provided and improved in the immediate vicinity of the large urban centres and medium-sized towns selected for expansion. The
FUTURES February 1988
II I
urban
.--
boundary
rural
ureas areas
Figure 3. Dispersed
For deconcentrotion settlements,
policy
a scenario of a deconcentrated
pattern.
final stage of the scenario shows decongested large towns, which will remain the main cultural centres of the country and specialize in high-level activities. A number of medium-sized towns will have expanded on the basis of existing infrastructure and services and local initiative. The whole process will be supported by national policy. Traffic flows will be distributed over a large
FUTURES F&wry
1986
50
Long-term perspectiuesfor human settlements
number of roads and railways. Recreational towns will be put to intensive use on account
facilities in the proximity of the of their being readily accessible.
Evaluation It is now more
than
three
yeas ago that the study was rounded
would seem to be ripe to look back, but more especially If we regard scenario studies as a vehicle for discussion
off and the time
to look ahead. in processes involving
a choice from policy alternatives, this study has fulfilled its (modest) function. Within the ECE framework it is difficult to estimate its exact significance. In Budapest the scenarios were not tabled for discussion individually, they were summarized in provisional recommendations by Unfortunately,
the angle of approach
chosen
does more justice
but instead rapporteurs.
to the integration
of problem identification than to that of future perspectives. In the Netherlands, however, the study has reached the discussion stage and gave rise to questions to the Minister
on the subject
of physical
planning
policy.
This
does not alter the
fact that on a number of points, the study is now out of date. This is the case in the first place where the population growth is concerned. The Central Bureau for Statistics is now developing new population forecasts, which promise an appreciably smaller growth This means that the accent will be much less development and much more on management ment. In the scenarios the controlling role of exaggerated,
more
than
would
seem
justified
than was assumed in this study. on new construction and urban of the existing built-up environthe government has been rather after
a term
of administration
during which a policy of deregulation was held very high. The fact that the design of the future perspectives was completed the formation
of the Lubbers
Cabinet
would
The question that remains, however, National Physical Planning Agency, which
on the eve of
seem to avenge itself here.4 is whether an institution like possesses
policy
powers
the
in its own
sphere of work, can avoid introducing control as a variable in its study. Further hiatuses can be indicated as regards method as well. The study is based on the influence another.
of seven factors. These factors have been treated separately from one For analyses relating to future developments, however, the mutual
influencing of these factors is of great importance. Closer attention will have to be paid to this
in further
studies
of future
developments. Although the interest in prospective thinking in the Netherlands seems to be declining, new studies of the future are under way. The National Physical Planning Agency now has a scenario study in respect of the effects of changes in working hours in hand. The Sociological Institute of Utrecht, authors of the scenario manual, are busy with the development of future perspectives in respect of the significance of ageing of the population for public health. All in all sufficient reason to draw the necessary conclusions from former studies of future developments in order to be able to work out better ones, likely to contribute towards a better future. Notes and references 1. The Future of the Rand&d August 1983.
Holland,
Studierapporten Rijksplanologische Dienst 23, The Hague,
FUTURES February 1996
Long-term perspectives forhuman settlements
2. Scenario’s ten behoeve van de Verstedelijkingsnota, Studierapporten Rijksplanologische Hague, June 1975. 3. Handfeiding voor het ontwerpen van scenario’s, Studierapporten Rijksplanologische Hague, May 1981; Scenario design hand-book, European Conference of Ministers Regional Planning, Mat-GE Prosp (81)5, Strasbourg, February 1982. 4. Ruud Lubbers, Prime Minister since 1982.
FUTURES February 1986
51
Dienst 3, The Dienst 18, The Responsible for