Low skeletal muscle mass predicts early mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding

Low skeletal muscle mass predicts early mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding

Accepted Manuscript Low skeletal muscle mass predicts early mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding Yoji Ishizu, MD, PhD, Masatos...

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Accepted Manuscript Low skeletal muscle mass predicts early mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding Yoji Ishizu, MD, PhD, Masatoshi Ishigami, MD, PhD, Teiji Kuzuya, MD, PhD, Takashi Honda, MD, PhD, Kazuhiko Hayashi, MD, PhD, Tetsuya Ishikawa, MD, PhD, Yoshiki Hirooka, MD, PhD, Hidemi Goto, MD, PhD PII:

S0899-9007(17)30115-6

DOI:

10.1016/j.nut.2017.06.004

Reference:

NUT 9975

To appear in:

Nutrition

Received Date: 27 February 2017 Revised Date:

4 May 2017

Accepted Date: 17 June 2017

Please cite this article as: Ishizu Y, Ishigami M, Kuzuya T, Honda T, Hayashi K, Ishikawa T, Hirooka Y, Goto H, Low skeletal muscle mass predicts early mortality in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding, Nutrition (2017), doi: 10.1016/j.nut.2017.06.004. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

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Low skeletal muscle mass predicts early mortality in cirrhotic patients with

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acute variceal bleeding

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Running head

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Muscle mass and mortality in variceal bleeding patients

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Yoji Ishizu, MD, PhD 1, Masatoshi Ishigami, MD, PhD 1, Teiji Kuzuya, MD, PhD 1,

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Takashi Honda, MD, PhD 1, Kazuhiko Hayashi, MD, PhD 1, Tetsuya Ishikawa,

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MD, PhD 1, Yoshiki Hirooka, MD, PhD 1, Hidemi Goto, MD, PhD 1

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1. Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University

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Graduate School of Medicine, 65 Tsuruma-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya,

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466-8550 Japan

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Role of each author in the work:

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YI and MI were involved in the conception and design of the study. Generation,

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collection, assembly, analysis and interpretation of data were handled by YI, MI,

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TK, TH, KH, TI, YH and HG. Drafting or revision of the manuscript was the

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responsibility of YI and MI. All the authors read and approved the final version of

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the manuscript.

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A word count: 4160 words

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Conflict of interest: None

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Financial support: None

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Corresponding Author:

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Masatoshi Ishigami, MD, PhD

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Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Nagoya University Graduate

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School of Medicine

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65 Tsuruma-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya 466-8550, Japan

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Tel:

+81-52-744-2169;

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[email protected]

Fax:

+81-52-744-2178;

E-mail:

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Abstract

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Background & Aims: Low skeletal muscle mass adversely affects outcomes in

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cirrhotic patients; however, its impact in patients with acute variceal bleeding

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remains unknown. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of low skeletal

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muscle mass on outcomes in cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding.

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Methods: A total of 122 patients were evaluated to identify factors associated

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with two outcomes: failure to control bleeding, defined as either rebleeding or

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death within 5 days, and 6-week mortality. Skeletal muscle mass was estimated

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by calculating the psoas muscle area at the third lumbar vertebra on computed

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tomographic images. Results: Forty-two patients had low skeletal muscle mass.

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Fifteen patients had failure to control bleeding and 32 patients died within 6

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weeks. Six of the patients with low skeletal muscle mass and nine of the patients

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without low skeletal muscle mass had failure to control bleeding; these

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proportions did not differ significantly (p=0.628). On the other hand, 15 (35.7%)

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of the patients with low skeletal muscle mass died within 6 weeks; this proportion

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was marginally higher than 17 (21.3%) of the patients without low skeletal

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muscle mass who died within 6 weeks (p=0.084). On multivariate analysis,

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presence of low skeletal muscle mass (odds ratio [OR] 4.69, p=0.024),

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non-alcoholic etiology (OR 10.3, p=0.024), higher international normalized ratio

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of prothrombin time (OR 41.4, p<0.001), and rebleeding within 6 weeks (OR

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27.0, p<0.001) were associated with 6-week mortality. Conclusions: Low skeletal

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muscle mass is an independent predictor of 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients

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with acute variceal bleeding.

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Key words: Low skeletal muscle mass, acute variceal bleeding, cirrhosis, early

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mortality, portal hypertension

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Highlights

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The 6-week mortality was significantly higher in patients with low muscle



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mass.

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The 5-days rebleeding and mortality was unrelated to presence of low muscle mass.

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Liver failure was the main cause of death in patients with low muscle mass.

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Abbreviations:

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AVB, acute variceal bleeding; CT, computed tomography; EBL, endoscopic band

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ligation; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; TIPS, transjugular intrahepatic

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portosystemic shunt

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT Introduction

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Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a fatal complication in patients with cirrhosis.

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Although the introduction of endoscopic band ligation (EBL) has improved the

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outcomes of such patients, the mortality rate is still about 20%.1 A further

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reduction in mortality would require the identification and more aggressive

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treatment of patients at high risk for early mortality. 2

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In patients with cirrhosis, malnutrition, which is caused by poor dietary intake,

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malabsorption, low protein synthesis and hypermetabolism, is often seen3 and

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represented by decreased skeletal muscle mass.4 Recently, low skeletal muscle

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mass, seen in an approximately half of all patients with cirrhosis,5 was shown to

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be a predictor of mortality in cirrhotic patients under several conditions, such as

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waiting for liver transplantation, post-liver transplantation,5 and bearing

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hepatocellular carcinoma,6 however, the influence of low skeletal muscle mass

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on cirrhotic patients with AVB remains unclear.

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We studied the impact of low skeletal muscle mass on the outcomes of cirrhotic

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patients with AVB treated by endoscopic treatment to attempt to identify high-risk

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patients.

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Methods

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Patients

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A total of 169 cirrhotic patients who underwent EBL for acute gastroesophageal

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variceal bleeding in our department between April 2003 and April 2016 were

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evaluated. We excluded 47 of these patients because they dropped out within 6

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weeks after endoscopic treatment, had incomplete laboratory test data, did not

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT undergo computed tomographic (CT) examinations, or had a history of ABV

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within the past 6 weeks. The remaining 122 patients were studied. Baseline

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characteristics are shown in Table 1. The causes of cirrhosis were as follows:

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heavy alcohol intake in 27 patients, hepatitis C virus infection in 56 patients,

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hepatitis B virus infection in 14 patients, autoimmune hepatitis in four patients,

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primary biliary cholangitis in two patients and miscellaneous in 19 patients.

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Emergency endoscopy was performed as soon as possible, and if esophageal

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varices were established to be the source of bleeding, EBL was performed using

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an elastic band ligating device (Pneumoactivated EVL device, Sumitomo

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Bakelite, Tokyo, Japan) at the same time. If the patient’s condition was good,

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additional endoscopic treatment was performed every week until the varices

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were eradicated. No patient received vasoconstrictive drugs, non-selective

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β-blockers, or transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedures

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because they are not approved for the treatment of AVB in Japan. Although the

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prophylactic use of antibiotics is suggested for cirrhotic patients with GI bleeding

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in

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recommendation is indicated as weak. 7 Therefore, prophylactic antibiotics were

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not used routinely and antibiotic therapy was started when patients showed any

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signs or symptoms suggesting infection. Immediate administration of anti-acid

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therapy with a proton pump inhibitor or histamine H2-receptor antagonist after

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EBL in all but one patient at the discretion of the physician in charge because

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antacid treatment after endoscopic therapy for esophagogastric varices is

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recommended in the Japanese guidelines.

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transplantation within 6 weeks. Rebleeding was treated by additional EBL. The

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diagnosis of liver cirrhosis was based on clinical, laboratory, radiological, and

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guidelines for

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cirrhosis,

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No patient underwent liver

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT histological data. Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was diagnosed on the basis

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of typical findings of arterial enhancement with subsequent washout on portal or

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delayed phase on multidetector row CT scanning or magnetic resonance

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imaging performed within 2 months before or after admission. This study was

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approved by the Nagoya University Hospital Ethics Committee and was

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conducted in accordance with the principles of the 1975 Declaration of Helsinki.

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Data collection

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Clinical and laboratory data were collected retrospectively. The severity of

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cirrhosis was classified according to the MELD score. Skeletal muscle mass was

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assessed on the basis of the cross-sectional areas of the right and left psoas

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muscles at the middle of the third lumbar vertebra (L3). The areas were

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measured by manual tracing on CT imaging obtained within 2 months before or

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after treatment, which was performed to evaluate the development of

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portosystemic collateral pathways, the presence of portal vein thrombosis, and

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hepatocellular carcinoma. The muscle area (cm2) was divided by the body height

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squared (m2) to normalize for height. We used 4.24 cm2/m2 for males and 2.50

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cm2/m2 for females as the cut-off values for low skeletal muscle mass, which

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were calculated by subtracting two standard deviations from the mean psoas

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muscle area at the middle of the L3 level in healthy Japanese subjects younger

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than 55 years, as reported in a previous study.9 The time to endoscopy was the

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interval from initial assessment at the hospital to the time of initial endoscopy.

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Hypovolemic shock was defined as the maintenance of a systolic blood pressure

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of less than 90 mmHg and a heart rate of more than 100 beats per minute. To

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evaluate the potential effects of the presence of HCC, the patients were divided

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT into two groups according to their prognosis:10 patients who had no HCC or were

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within the Milan criteria (single tumor ≤5 cm, or maximum of three total tumors

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with none >3 cm) and patients who exceeded the Milan criteria. Failure to control

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bleeding was defined as meeting at least one of the following four criteria, in

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accordance with the Baveno consensus workshops: any further clinically

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significant bleeding after therapeutic endoscopy, a 3-g/dL drop in hemoglobin

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levels within 24 hours if no transfusion was administered, development of

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hypovolemic shock, and death within the first 5 days after initial endoscopic

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treatment. Early mortality was defined as death occurring within 6 weeks after

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endoscopic treatment.2,

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presence of further bleeding or a 3-g/dL drop in hemoglobin level within 24 hours

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during the first 6 weeks after initial endoscopic treatment.

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We defined rebleeding within 6 weeks as either

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Statistical analysis

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Quantitative variables were compared with the use of Student’s t-test or the

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non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test, and the distributions of qualitative

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variables were compared using the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test, as

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appropriate. We used one-way analysis of variance and the Tukey post hoc test

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or Kruskal-Wallis test to evaluate differences in the proportions of low skeletal

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muscle mass among the following three groups: patients with a MELD score of

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less than 10, 10 to 14, or 15 and higher. Multiple logistic regression analysis was

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performed to determine the factors that contributed significantly to 6-week

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mortality. Variables with p values of less than 0.1 on univariate analysis were

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included in the model.12 To avoid collinearity, the MELD score was removed from

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the analysis, and its individual components (i.e., serum bilirubin level, serum

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ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT creatinine level, and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time) were

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incorporated into multivariate analysis. P values of less than 0.05 were

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considered to indicate statistical significance. Statistical analyses were

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performed using SPSS software (SPSS, Inc., Chicago, IL, USA).

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Results

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Prevalence of low skeletal muscle mass in cirrhotic patients with AVB

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The prevalence of low skeletal muscle mass was 34.4% (42 of 122 patients) in

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cirrhotic patients with AVB. The prevalence of low skeletal muscle mass

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according to the MELD score was 29.2% (7 of 24 patients) in patients with a

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score of less than 10, 35.6% (16 of 45 patients) in patients with a score of 10 to

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14, and 35.8% (19 of 53 patients) in patients with a score of 15 or higher. These

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prevalences did not differ significantly (p=0.832). Normalized skeletal muscle

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area (cm2/m2) also did not differ according to the MELD score (p=0.416).

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Factors associated with failure to control bleeding

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Fifteen patients met the criteria for failure to control bleeding. Nine of these

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patients had further clinically significant bleeding, and six patients died within 5

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days. The causes of death were liver failure in five patients and hypovolemic

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shock in one patient. Six (14.3%) of the 42 patients with low skeletal muscle

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mass and nine (11.3%) of the 80 patients without low skeletal muscle mass had

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failure to control bleeding. These proportions did not differ significantly (p=0.628).

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Because the limited number of patients with failure to control bleeding precluded

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a meaningful multivariate analysis, only univariate analysis was performed.

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Three factors were related to failure to control bleeding: higher serum bilirubin

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level (p=0.033), lower serum sodium level (p<0.001), and presence of an

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advanced stage of HCC (p=0001) (Table 2).

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Factors associated with mortality within 6 weeks

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Thirty-two patients died within 6 weeks. Of the 42 patients with low skeletal

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muscle mass, 15 (35.7%) died within 6 weeks; this proportion was marginally

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higher than 17 (21.3%) of the 80 patients without low skeletal muscle mass

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(p=0.084) who died within 6 weeks (Table 3). Univariate analysis identified

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another seven factors that significantly or marginally influenced 6-week mortality:

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non-alcoholic etiology (p=0.043), higher serum bilirubin level (p<0.001), lower

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serum albumin level (p<0.001), higher international normalized ratio of

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prothrombin time (p<0.001), higher serum creatinine level (p<0.001), lower

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serum sodium level (p<0.001), presence of an advanced stage of HCC

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(p=0.001) and occurrence of rebleeding within 6 weeks (p<0.001). On

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multivariate analysis, non-alcoholic etiology (OR 10.3, 95% CI 1.36-76.9,

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p=0.024), higher international normalized ratio of prothrombin time (OR 41.4,

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95% CI 6.79-253, p<0.001), occurrence of rebleeding within 6 weeks (OR 27.0,

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95% CI 5.54-131, p<0.001), and presence of low skeletal muscle mass (OR 4.69,

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95% CI 1.23-17.9, p=0.024) were identified as factors significantly related to

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increased 6-week mortality (Table 3).

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Causes of death within 6 weeks in patients with or without low skeletal

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muscle mass

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Of the 32 patients who died within 6 weeks, 15 had low skeletal muscle mass.

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Two-thirds of the deaths were caused by liver failure, and one patient died of

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skeletal muscle mass died within 6 weeks, and of them, 11 patients died of liver

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failure, five died of hypovolemic shock, and one died of cytomegalovirus

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infection, which had already occurred before variceal bleeding (Table 4).

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Discussion

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This study showed that low skeletal muscle mass is one of the significant

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independent predictors of 6-week mortality in cirrhotic patients who have AVB

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after emergency ligation therapy.

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Despite recent advances in treatment for AVB enabled by the development of

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pharmacologic and band ligation therapy, approximately one in five patients died

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within 6 weeks. More aggressive therapy, such as early TIPS, might improve the

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outcomes of these patients;13 however, the implementation of such therapy in all

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hospitals around the world be difficult. Therefore, it is necessary to elucidate risk

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factors that could be used to identify high-risk patients who need to be

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transferred to facilities where aggressive medical care can be provided. Previous

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studies identified several factors that influence early morality in cirrhotic patients

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with ABV: worsening liver function, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 impaired renal function,18, 19

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non-alcoholic etiology,17, 18 rebleeding,18 the presence of HCC,19 and infection.18,

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function;18, 20 however, there is still room for improvement. Over a period of about

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10 years, many studies have shown that low skeletal muscle mass is associated

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with mortality in cirrhotic patients;5 however, the impact of low skeletal muscle

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mass in cirrhotic patients with ABV has not been adequately investigated. Our

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Some authors have proposed good prognostic models based on liver

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT study showed that presence of low skeletal muscle mass is a significant

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independent predictor of 6-week mortality, along with three other previously

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reported factors, including non-alcoholic etiology, worsening liver function, and

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occurrence of rebleeding within 6 weeks. Our results suggest that evaluation of

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both liver function and presence or absence of low skeletal muscle mass might

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allow risk in individual patients to be classified more accurately than previously

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reported.

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On the other hand, presence of low skeletal muscle did not influence

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development of failure to control bleeding. Since failure to control bleeding

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includes two outcomes: death and rebleeding, we further analyzed the impact of

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low skeletal muscle mass on each of them, however, presence of low skeletal

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muscle mass is not associated with both death and rebleeding within 5 days

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(p=0.339, p=0.943, respectively). Whereas, low sodium levels have been

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identified as a factor associated with failure to control bleeding in addition to

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previously proven factors, such as worsening liver function14,

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presence of HCC.5 Decreased serum sodium level are well known to negatively

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affect outcomes in patients with severe cirrhosis,21 and we obtained consistent

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results at a very early phase in patients with AVB.

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The reason why low skeletal muscle mass negatively affected outcomes

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remains unclear. Low skeletal muscle mass can be caused by several factors:

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malnutrition due to inadequate dietary intake and malabsorption, playing major

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roles in the development of skeletal muscle, metabolic disturbances, systemic

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inflammation, and inadequate hormone production.22 Based on the hypothesis

ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT that patients with low skeletal muscle mass are prone to infections because of

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an impaired immune system due to malnutrition,23 several studies have

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investigated the causes of death in such patients; however, the results were

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controversial. In postsurgical patients, presence of a low skeletal muscle mass

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was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection irrespective of the

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presence or absence of cirrhosis.24,

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cirrhosis who did not undergo surgical procedures, low skeletal muscle mass

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was not related to death due to infection.6, 26 In our study, although patients with

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AVB had a high risk of fatal bacterial infection,27 the main cause of death in

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patients with a low skeletal muscle mass was liver failure, and only one patient

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died of infection due to aspiration pneumonia.

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Our study had two major limitations. First, it was a retrospective study performed

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in a single institution. Second, vasoactive therapy, which is recommended for

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cirrhotic patients with AVB by several guidelines,2, 28 was not performed in this

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study because its use is not approved for the treatment of AVB in Japan.

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However, the rate of rebleeding and mortality in our study was nearly the same

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as that in a previous study in which patients received standard vasoactive

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therapy.29 These results are most likely attributed to two factors: very early

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endoscopy and the administration of anti-acid drugs. Early endoscopy, defined

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as endoscopy performed within 12 hours or less, was associated with decreased

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rebleeding and mortality within 6 weeks in a previous study.30 In our study, the

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mean time to endoscopy was only about 2 hours. Another study reported that

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patients who received combination therapy with anti-acid drugs and EBL had

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similar 6-week mortality and rebleeding rates to those who received standard

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therapy with vasoactive drugs and EBL.31 To confirm the results of our study, a

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prospective multicenter study including a control group given standard therapy is

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needed.

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In conclusion, the presence of a low skeletal muscle mass is significantly and

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independently related to increased 6-week mortality among cirrhotic patients

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with ABV treated by EBL. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm our

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results.

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patients with liver cirrhosis. Nutrition. 2015; 31: 193-9.

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management of gastroesophageal varices and variceal hemorrhage in cirrhosis. Hepatology. 2007; 46: 922-38.

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current acute variceal bleed treatments in unselected cirrhotic patients: refining short-term prognosis and risk factors. Am J Gastroenterol. 2012; 107: 1872-8.

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[31] Lo GH, Perng DS, Chang CY, Tai CM, Wang HM, Lin HC. Controlled trial

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of ligation plus vasoconstrictor versus proton pump inhibitor in the control of acute esophageal variceal bleeding. J Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2013; 28: 684-9.

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Table 1. Baseline characteristics

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61.6±12.8 92/30 27/95 60/62

Serum bilirubin (mg/dL) Serum albumin (g/dL) Prothrombin time (INR) Serum creatinine (mg/dL)

3.00±4.04 2.59±0.584 1.50±0.416 1.16±1.01

Serum sodium (mEq/L) Platelet count (×109/L) Low skeletal muscle mass (present/absent)

136±4.64 119±63.8 42/80

SC 121±110 70/52 12/110 80/42

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Time to endoscopy † (min) Active bleeding (present/absent) Hypovolemic shock ‡ (present/absent) HCC (absent or early stage §/advanced stage)

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Age (years) Gender (male/female) Etiology of alcohol/others Past history of bleeding (with/without)

403

408

‡ Systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg and heart rate >100 beat per minute

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§ Single <5 cm or ≤3 nodules <3 cm

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Data are presented as means ± standard deviation. INR, international normalized ratio; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma † The interval from initial assessment at the hospital to the time of initial endoscopy

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Table 2. Factors associated with failure to control bleeding Bleeders (n=15)

Non-bleeders ( n =107)

Age (years) Gender (male/female) Etiology of alcohol/others Past history of bleeding (with/without) Serum bilirubin (mg/dl)

64.3±10.6 12/3 1/14 8/7 3.70 (1.55-5.50)

61.2±13.1 80/27 26/81 52/55 1.50 (0.950–2.65)

0.387 0.469 0.123 0.731 0.033

Serum albumin (g/dl) Prothrombin time (INR) Serum creatinine (mg/dl) Serum sodium (mEq/l)

2.36±0.549 1.44 (1.35-2.02) 0.990 (0.755-1.42) 131 (129-135)

2.62±0.584 1.40 (1.21-1.56) 0.85 (0.645-1.27) 137 (134-139)

0.106 0.137 0.364 <0.001

Platelet count (×109/L) Active bleeding (present/absent) Low skeletal muscle mass (present/absent)

136 (88.5-193) 11/4

96.0 (78.5-139) 59/48

0.053 0.182

6/9

36/71

0.628

Hypovolemic shock † (present/absent) HCC (absent or early stage ‡ / advanced stage)

1/14

11/96

0.549

76/31

0.001

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Variable

p

Data are presented as means ± standard deviation or medians (interquartile range). INR, international normalized ratio; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma † Systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg and heart rate >100 beat per minute

value

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Table 3. Factors associated with death within 6 weeks Univariate analysis The survivors ( n =90)

Age (years) Gender (male/female) Etiology of alcohol/others

63.0±9.22 26/6 3/29

61.1±13.9 66/24 24/66

p value 0.380 0.372 0.043

13/19

47/43

0.260

3.00 (1.55-7.23) 2.24±0.436

1.30 (0.900-2.40) 2.71±0.582

<0.001 <0.001

Prothrombin time (INR) Serum creatinine (mg/dl) Serum sodium (mEq/l) Platelet count (×109/L)

1.65 (1.44-2.05) 1.31 (0.832-1.89) 133 (129-135) 127 (78.5-149)

1.34 (1.20-1.46) 0.800 (0.620-1.04) 137 (134-139) 94.0 (79.0-137)

<0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.236

20/7

50/30

0.495

27/63

0.084

7/83

0.173

67/23

0.001

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Past history of bleeding (with/without) Serum bilirubin (mg/dl) Serum albumin (g/dl)

Active bleeding (present/absent) Low skeletal muscle mass (present/absent)

15/17

Hypovolemic shock † 5/27 (present/absent) HCC (absent or early stage ‡/ 13/19

OR

95%CI

p value

10.3

1.36-76.9

0.024

41.4

6.79-253

<0.001

4.69

1.23-17.9

0.024

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The deceased ( n =32)

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19/13

10/80

<0.001

27.0

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advanced stage) Rebleeding within 6 weeks (present/absent)

5.54-131

SC

Data are presented as means ± standard deviation or medians (interquartile range). INR, international normalized ratio; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval. † Systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg and heart rate >100 beat per minute

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Table 4. Causes of death within 6 weeks in patients with or without low skeletal muscle mass

Patients without low skeletal muscle mass (n =17)

n

Cause of death

n

Liver failure Hypovolemic shock Infection

10 1 1

Liver failure Hypovolemic shock Infection

11 5 1

Hyperkalemia Rupture of HCC Tumor lysis syndrome

1 1 1

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HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma

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Cause of death

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Patients with low skeletal muscle mass (n =15)

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Highlights 

The 5-days rebleeding and mortality was unrelated to presence of low muscle mass. The 6-week mortality was significantly higher in patients with low muscle

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mass.

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Liver failure was the main cause of death in patients with low muscle mass.

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