- Email: [email protected]
Managing public policy issues
66
0024-6301/89 $3.00 + 00 Pergamon Press plc
Long Range Planning, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 66 to 73, 1989 Printed in Great Britain
Managing
Public Policy Issues
David S. Barrows and Sandra Morris
The role of the public sector has expanded significantly in the last 40 years. The ability to anticipate public policy changes has become a criticalcomponent of an organization’s environmental scanning activities. Today, every segment of society is affected by the development of government policies and programmes. Organizations that correctly anticipate government actions can achieve significant benefits and minimize loss potentials. Given the size and role of government, a significant literature has emerged which attempts to analyse and assess likely public policy developments. The objective of this article is to develop a simplified format, based on this literature, which will allow organizations to develop a check list against which potential public policy actions may be assessed.
The planning process, on the other hand, generally characteristics: has the follo%g (1) An apolitical mentation. (2) A subject
approach
as opposed
to the process of impleto a problem
(3) An inventory to data.
gathering
(4) An unspecific
client, such as ‘the public interest’.
vs Planning
It is important to distinguish between development and planning processes.’
(7) Preparation
the policy
The policy development characteristics:
process has the following
(1) A
to problem
political
approach
solving.
(2) An
issue orientation which is likely reactive to problems or opportunities have already been identified.
(3) A search phase which is limited direction to a particular issue. (4) A particular client for resolution or opportunity.
to be which
in scope and of the problem
(5) A limited time horizon based upon and requirements of the client.
prior to client consul-
of a plan.
There are many points in the policy and planning stages which overlap. Though in a strict sense policy assessment and planning represent conceptually distinct alternatives, this paper suggests that they should be considered equally important to the firms strategic planning process.
Models of Society In an assessment of the policy generation process, it is important to start with a clear model as to how policy is formulated, developed and ultimately implemented. The societal background provides the context within which policy is ultimately determined.
the needs
(6) A constrained search for alternatives which are normally evaluated and then presented to the client. of memorandum, (7) Preparation policy papers, draft legislation, initiate formal activity.
phase; usually oriented
horizon for development (5) A rather long-time and implementation; such as is normally associated with infrastructure investments. (6) A search for alternatives tation.
Policy Development
orientation.
issue papers, in order to
D. S. Barrows is Director of the Industry and Trade Policy Branch of the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Technology in Toronto and adjunct Professor at York University, Sandra Morris is a policy analyst with The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Technology.
There are, essentially, two frameworks or models for viewing the context within which policy is created. The first model is the ‘consensus theory’, which suggests that social order results from a dominant set of shared values. The second model is conflict theory, in which social order is based on domination and constraint. The environmental context in which developed may actually shift over time. For example,
during
policy
is
periods of social unrest, society
Managing
Public Policy
Issues
67
may move from a consensual to a conflicting form of social order. In that case, the framework by which policy is measured and assessed will change. This in turn will influence the amount of freedom, or the limits of action (known as the ‘policy space’) for decision-making.
specific solutions identified.
*
A lack of shared societal values.
The social disturbance may be externally generated by international political events or the result of internal economic changes, such as fundamental technological innovations. In general, externally generated disturbances will allow the policy maker less latitude and discretion in the development of alternatives for action.
*
A lack of criteria trade-offs.
*
The personal
*
Large investments policies.
*
Information constraints in collecting ing the facts in the issue.
*
The segmentation of policy making, and the inability to develop system-wide solutions.
Models of Public Policy Determination A number of models describe the generation the major models are: (1) The Rational
have been developed of public policy. Three
to of
Model.
(2) Incrementalism. (3
Public
Choice.
The Rational Model The development of the rational model influenced by two basic assumptions: (1) The hypothesized man’.
ideal behaviour
A belief in science and the scientific
has been
of ‘economic method.
The economic man model depicts a decision-maker who decides on the basis of maximization of the achievement of an objective. Problems are solved in the following step by step manner:
(1) Identify (2) Examine
the problem
or objective.
alternative means, and the costs and involved in resolving the issue.
to the problems
and opportunities
A number ofproblems have been identified with the assumptions of the rational model, including:*
to assign weights
motivation
of policy
in existing
to evaluate makers.
programs
and
and analys-
Notwithstanding these difliculties, many policies are developed which employ the methodologies of the rational model. The Incremental Model The incremental model assumes that decisions are based upon past actions. The decision-making process is viewed as an iterative process which builds upon previous decisions in order to develop new policies and programmes. The incremental approach restricts consideration of alternatives and their likely consequences. The ability to undertake incremental, as opposed to systemic, changes is founded on the belief that the ultimate objectives and goals of the society are stable. Therefore, there is a high value placed on the need for agreement and consensus. The incremental model is based on the assumption that people do not conform to the ‘economic man’ model, and that information is limited.
to
This approach can function fairly effectively in periods of stability when previous policies and programmes were, essentially, correctly developed. The incremental model is less effective during periods of stress when it is necessary to evaluate a wider range of alternatives and be prepared to undertake unique approaches.
The development of the rational model has formed the basis of a number of scientific approaches to the development of public policy. Such approaches as cost-benefit analysis, planning-programming and budgeting and management by results owe their genesis to the rational approach.
A variation of the incremental model, the mixedscanning approach, has been proposed. In this model it is suggested that societies have the capacity to be rational with respect to a discrete number of decisions. These decisions can be scanned and identified using the rational approach, however, the majority of decisions are left to incremental change.
The rational model can be used at both the macro governmental level and at the micro project decision-making level. The fundamental assumption of the rational model is that the scientific method can identify causal factors and prescribe
The Public Choice Model This model is predicated on the assumption that the decision-makers are self interested. That is, decisions are made by people who have a direct interest in the outcome and therefore, the assessment of altema-
benefits
(3) Objectively approach. (4) Implement
select
the
most
appropriate
the decision.
(5) Evaluate the impacts and alter behaviour correct errors and maximize achievements.
68
Long Range
Planning
Vol. 22
December
tives is to some extent influenced by the rewards or punishments that may accrue to the decision-maker. In this model it is possible to employ a ‘game theory’ approach whereby special interest groups, politicians and bureaucrats are involved in a series of interlocking games. It is possible that these games are ‘zero sum’ where parties may win or lose. Alternatively, it is possible for these games to be positive sums such that all parties win by some form of explicit or tacit collusion. The public choice model in its extreme dismisses the ideal of ‘public interest’ and the capacity of decisionmakers to identify.with the broader public. It is not possible to identify how the many ‘games’ interact and it is, therefore, difficult to utilize this model in assessing the development of public policy. Nonetheless, insofar as decision-makers act in their own self interest, there is at least a component of the public choice model in all government decisionmaking processes.
1989
actively involved immediate basis.
(1) External (2) Internal
three
general
need. capability.
(3) Symbolic. External need refers to responding to a challenge or opportunity in the environment. For example, there may be a ‘need’ to assist manufacturing industries to adopt Japanese production techniques and become more automated in their production processes. This would be done to meet an external challenge in the environment for manufacturing firms to remain competitive in the international market place. Policies and programmes are also developed from issues which are based on internal capabilities. Many governments have developed significant internal capability for infrastructure development. This could include roads, rail, air traffic, power generation or water treatment facilities. This internal capacity can, at times, drive government to undertake activities based on the demonstrated capacity to deliver those outputs within government itself. Therefore, the issues are essentially internally generated. There must of course be some linkage to a perceived external need for most of these projects to ultimately proceed. Governments are required to be seen to be attempting to address the major public policy issues of the day. Because of the nature of many of these problems, it is not always possible for a quick resolution of the issues. For example, medical problems such as AIDS and cancer research are not amenable to short-term solutions. Nonetheless, governments, in a symbolic sense, must be seen to be
with these issues on an
Issues With
respect
to issues, it is important
to assess:
(1) Who is affected? *
A large or small number
*
A broad
(2) How
cross section
are people
Through through
*
Is the effect of people
(3) When
or selective
personal exposure, the media?
group?
deemed
or indirectly to be serious?
will the effects be felt?
z?r Immediately (4) What
of people?
affected?
*
* The Issue Generation Process We have identified the following approaches for issue generation:
in dealing
or in the short/long
can be done about
What
the problem?
are the costs of a solution?
Issue Types It is possible to identify a number types. Bartha has identified the major types of issues? (1) Universal
issues.
(2) Advocacy
issues.
(3) Selective (4) Technical
term?
of generic following
issue four
issues. issues.
Universal issues are those which affect large numbers of people. It is unlikely that these are permanent issues, rather they change with social and economic conditions. Exposure enhanced universal imminent.
to these issues is direct and may be by media attention. The impact of issues is usually viewed as serious and
The concern is such that people feel that the government must repond and a simple and efficient government solution is anticipated. In recent times universal issues have included the energy crisis, inflation and unemployment. In Canada, governments have responded by creating state-owned oil companies, instituting wage and price controls and developing job creation programmes. Advocacy issues stand somewhat lower in the public hierarchy of concerns than universal issues. These are potential rather than actual problems for much of the population. Advocacy issues are introduced to the public by groups claiming to represent the broad public interest. In many cases, the initial response is that large numbers of people do not believe these issues to be critically important. Therefore, they may or may not elicit expectation of imminent
Managing government action. As well, there is less tendency, as opposed to universal issues, to expect a simple government solution. However, once a solution has been identified, large numbers of people may see remedial government action as appropriate. For example, in recent years the need for day care has become an advocacy issue. Selective issues are those which affect identifiable special interest groups. Those affected may be identified on the basis of geography, demographics, occupation or similar group. The costs of solving the problem are passed on to the public at large. Because the solution of the problem is more or less ‘free’ to the special interest group these issues generate intense commitment and activism. Attempts to secure tariff and quota protection for selected industries represent an example of selective issues. Finally, technical issues are those in which the public has little or no direct interest. Normally these are left to the experts. Technical issues, unlike the other issues, have a limited public profile. The vast majority of business-government relations, on a day to day basis, are in this category. This range of activity would include an entire array of technical standards such as water quality, noise levels and pollution levels. It should be noted that it is possible for ‘issue-shift’ to occur. That is, a technical issue, such as radiation emission standards for nuclear power facilities, may become the focus of public attention. The issue could then shift from the technical category to, perhaps, an advocacy issue. Key Publics Bartha has also identified a number of ‘key publics’ in the issues generation and development process, as follows:
(1) General
public.
(2) Media. (3) Interest (4) Political (5) Public
groups. leadership. Service.
The general public is involved primarily in universal issues where a veto can be expressed with regard to government actions on a particular issue. This veto can be activated through mass public opinion, referendum or elections. The media is involved in the issues process as a ‘gatekeeper’. In this capacity the media determines which issues will be brought forward for public scrutiny and in what manner. The media also plays a role in amplifying issues and has the capacity to assist in shifting issues from one category to another. Interest
groups
represent
the selective
groupings
of
Public Policy
peoples and organizations possible to be a member interest groups.
Issues
69
around specific issues. It is of a number of different
Political leadership refers to elected officials, while the public service is the non-elected bureaucracy. Political leadership provides the focal point for bringing forward government initiatives and it is the elected officials who must take ultimate responsibility for approval of major policy thrusts. However, the public service is involved in dealing with the resolution of the day to day issues and also has responsibility for the initial development of most policy and programme recommendations. As well, the public service is responsible for the implementation of programmes. Issue Phases
A number of models exist which identify in the issue generation process. For most follows :
models
there
are three
major
the phases
phases as
(1) The latent phase. (2) The opinion
development
(3) The institutional
action
phase. phase.
In the latent phase issues are recognized by relatively few people. In many cases the interested party may resolve the issue privately at this point. For example, business and government resolve many technical issues in the latent phase. The opinion development phase occurs when the issue has come under scrutiny in the media and has begun to stimulate public debate. At this time, the government may use moral persuasion to alter behaviour without resorting to formal government institutions. Alternatively, the issue may be resolved by voluntary co-operative action. An example of this may occur in certain employment equity activities where business agrees to a selective hiring programme. Finally, in the institutional action phase there is a general awareness of the problem or opportunity. At this time it is normally too late for the private sector to exert significant influence over governmental action. The parameters of the decisionmaking process are fixed and business or other organizations can affect only selected aspects of implementation as opposed to the more fundamental decision as to whether or not the action should take place, Issues Management:
Costs
us Degrees
of Freedom
There are a number of factors for an organization to assess with respect to issues management, including: (1) The costs environment issues.
to
the organization to scan the to identify and track emerging
Long Range
70
Planning
December
Vol. 22
(2) The relative degrees of freedom negative competitive impacts.
to
limit
(3) The relative costs to change the impacts of issues as they move to the legislative and regulatory stages (i.e. the institutional action phase). Figure 1 indicates these variables.
the inter-relationships
amongst
In the latent phase the cost of scanning or identifying issues may be relatively high. However, the degrees of freedom to influence the development of the issue may also be high. It may be possible to obviate the necessity for government action, through the implementation of voluntary measures; for example, in an area such as employee drug testing programmes. As well, the cost of affecting change may be relatively low.
Table 1 develops an issues assessment framework to analyse the various issue characteristics in this paper with respect to this case study. Analysis suggests that the societal model is that of conflict. Little consensus exists with regard to this issue. There is cleavage along religious lines. There also appears to be cleavage on an urban-rural basis; with urban support but a lack of rural support. It would appear that this is an example of the incremental model. Incrementalism involves a continuation and elaboration of past government policies. The analytical framework of the rational model does not appear to be appropriate for analysis in this case. Table 1. Issues assessment framework: beer and wine in corner groceries
In the institutional action phase (legislation/regulation) the cost of scanning the issue should be relatively low. However, the degree of freedom to change the issue should be relatively low, and the cost to affect change should be relatively high.
Model Consensus Conflict Approach Rational Incremental Public choice Issue definition Who How When What done
An Application of the Model: Beer and Wine in Corner Grocery Stores It is now appropriate to determine the applicability
Generation External Internal Symbolic
of the model developed in this paper to a specific issue. Appendix 1 summarizes some of the major components of the issue of the sale of beer and wine in corner grocery stores in the Province of Ontario, Canada.
Universal Advocacy Selective Technical Phases Latent Opinion development Institutional action
Integration
Control
Time
1
Selected Direct Now Legislation
X X
Type
Essentially, the issue is associated with government control over the sale and distribution of alcoholic beverages through retail outlets. At the present time in the Province of Ontario this distribution process is retricted to government-owned or licensed operations.
Figure
1989
X X
X
Managing With regard to the issue generation process, it would appear that this issue is somewhat internal and symbolic. The government has the internal capacity to change the nature of beer and wine distribution in response to what appears to be a somewhat ‘weak’ external signal that change could be desirable. Also, in some respects this is a symbolic issue. As the Province of Ontario has become more multicultured, urban and sophisticated, there is a greater need to appear to be ‘modem’ in terms of the sale and distribution ofbeer and wine. Movement in this direction could be seen as a symbolic act to address the perceived need to be in step with the times. Analysis of the four issue types suggests that beer and wine is either an advocacy and/or selective issue. The issue is not universal as it is not a critical issue for the majority of the population. Similarly, it is not a technical issue as there is an efficient and effective distribution system within the Province of Ontario. However, it is an advocacy/selective issue as certain groups within the population favour this approach to the distribution process. These groups would include the retail sector which favours such activity and certain ethnic and urban groups. On the negative side, certain religious and union groups oppose the proposed changes on religious and equity grounds. The impact would be direct and the likely development immediate. The issue would be activated by means of legislation. Within the Province of Ontario the issue is in the opinion development stage. That is, it is no longer latent insofar as it has received a reasonable amount of discussion. However, it has not reached the institutional action phase whereby decisions have been made and there is very little to impact on the issue. The issues assessment framework would suggest that the various interest groups have an opportunity to influence events given the nature and the development of this issue to date. Lobbying and advocacy strategies can now be developed based upon this approach and given the degree of development and maturation of this issue. Second
Application
of the Model:
Pay Equity
A second application of the model focuses on the pay equity issue. Appendix 2 summarizes the major components of the issue, and Table 2 develops the assessment framework to analyse the characteristics of the issue. The wage gap between men and women has arisen because the work predominantly performed by women is valued differently than the work performed by men. Analysis suggests that the social order which values men and women differently is one based on domination and constraint; therefore, the societal model applicable to the pay equity issue is that of conflict.
Public Policy
Table 2. Issues assessment pay equity
Issues
71
framework:
Model Consensus Conflict Approach Rational Incremental Public choice Issue definition Who How When What done
Selected Direct Now Legislation
Generation External Internal Symbolic
X
X
Type
Universal Advocacy Selective Technical
X
Phases Latent Opinion development Institutional action
X
When viewed in the context of the long history of human rights legislation, and given the gradual introduction of the legislation, the incremental model appears to be the relevant analytical framework. The issue generation process appears to be external and symbolic, with governments recognizing that they should be perceived as promoting equal pay for work of equal value, and responding to external pressure to redress wage imbalances. Conceptually, pay equity could affect most employers and all of the female workforce, making the issue universal in nature. In practice, the fact that the pay equity legislation applies on an establishment basis, and that points of comparison within firms may be limited, effectively rules out large segments of the female workforce. Hence, the issue tends to be selective, with women who work outside the home the identifiable group towards whom benefits are targetted, but where only a fraction of those women will actually be affected. As indicated in Table 2, legislation affecting the public sector and private sector firms with more than 10 employees was introduced in Ontario on 15 June 1986. Within the Province of Ontario (and a number of other jurisdictions) the issue is in the legislative action phase. As a result, opportunities for affected firms to influence the issue now via lobbying and advocacy strategies are limited. Third Application
The pension
of the Model:
reform
Pension
issue provides
Reform
a third opportu-
72
Long Range
Planning
Vol. 22
December
nity to test the application of the model. Appendix 3 and Table 3 summarize the major components and assessment framework, respectively, of the pension reform issue. In recent years, pension reform has been the subject of intensive debates between firms and their employees, with little apparent consensus on appropriate solutions. The societal model applicable to the issue, then, is that of conflict. In many cases, legislation has been introduced and then amended, with partial indexation often a considered first step to full indexation; and with public plans fully indexed before private ones. The incremental model is therefore the relevant analytical framework. The issue generation process is again external and symbolic, with governments responding to external pressure for the protection of real pension benefits for retirees. In this case, the issue type tends to be universal, with pension reform affecting most employed persons directly, and many unemployed persons indirectly, via spouses and/or non-income-related government plans. As Table 3 indicates, the pension reform issue is in the legislative action phase in Ontario; but is only in the opinion development phase in some countries, providing affected parties in those jurisdictions the opportunity to influence the issue via lobbying.
Table 3. Issues assessment tension reform
framework:
1989
Conclusion This paper has attempted to develop a framework or model for analysing public policy issues. The simplified model appears to have the potential to be used to categorize public policy issues and to determine their relative position and importance. Based upon this analysis it is then possible to develop advocacy strategies and implementation programs to influence the development of subsequent public policy.
References (1) C. Patton and D. Sawicki, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning, Prentice Hall (1986). (2) T. Dye, Understanding Public Policy, Prentice-Hall (3)
(1975).
P. Bartha, Managing Corporate External Issuas: An Analytical Framework, Business Can Succeed: Understanding the Political Environment, edited by J. Fleck and I. Litvak, Gage Publishing Company, Toronto. Canada (1984).
Appendix Key Components
1 ofthe Safe of Beer and Wine in Corner
Grocery Stores Issue
On 28 October wine in comer
1986, legislation to permit the sale of beer and grocery stores in Ontario was defeated.
Beer and wine has been sold in corner stores in Quebec since 1978; in Newfoundland it has been sold in corner stores since 1949. Ontario legislation was designed sales to domestic labels.
to limit
the beer and wine
Model Consensus Conflict
In response, European and U.S. producers applied Ontario to allow foreign liquor sales as well.
Approach Rational Incremental Public choice
Within Ontario, independents do not want to share beer and wine sales with the major chains; the chains do not want sales limited to the independents.
Issue definition Who How When What done Generation External Internal Symbolic
All Direct Now Legislation
Phases Latent Opinion development Institutional action
on
Brewers Retail (the licensed distributor of beer) is opposed because of probable loss of government jobs; small business is in favour because of (potential) employment gains. The Church sees the potential deaths and accidents.
for increased
drinking-related
X
X
Type
Universal Advocacy Selective Technical
pressure
X
X
Appendix
2
Key Components of the Pay Equity Issue On 15 June 1987, legislation was passed in Ontario requiring public and private sector firms to evaluate and address the issue of gender-based pay discrimination. ‘Pay equity’ is a system which attempts to ensure that equal compensation is paid for work of equal value, regardless of the gender of the person performing the work.
Managing In Canada, Manitoba implemented pay equity legislation for the public sector in 1984; Quebec has some coverage in its human rights legislation; and Alberta, PEI, New Brunswick and Newfoundland have only debated the issue. In the U.S., 45 states have passed bills to study the pay equity concept, while four states (Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin) have passed implementing legislation. The U.K. has pay equity legislation in its Charter while Australia, New Zealand and some countries have distinct legislation in place.
of Rights, in Europe
The Ontario legislation requires employers to develop the plans to redress wage imbalances. Pay increases are to be phased in, starting in 1.986 for the public sector and ending in 1993 for smaller firms. Labour unions and women groups, supportive of the bill, argue that women have historically subsidized firms, through lower wages. Small business argues that the costs of implementing the legislation will be unrealistically high; and may result in layoffs. The standard
Appendix
cleavage
along political
lines is evident.
3
Key Components of the Pension Reform Issue The Task Force on Inflation Protection for Employment Pension Plans was appointed by the Ontario government on
Public Policy
Issues
9 December 1986, just as Bill 170 (the Pension 1987). was introduced to the Legislature. Specific included Bill 170 pension
Benefits
73 Act,
provisions for inflation protection were not initially in the Bill, but on 25 June 1987 (on third reading), was amended to include a formal requirement that plans be adjusted for inflation.
In Canada, all federal government pensions and supplements are fully indexed to the consumer price index, but few private sector plans are automatically indexed. France and Sweden integrate public and private plans, with public pensions fully indexed and adjustments made annually to private pensions up to the rise in the CPI. Germany had a fully indexed government-run pension plan, with pensions in the private sector periodically adjusted, but between 1978 and 1982 the indexing scheme was suspended in favour of ad hoc adjustments for inflation. Nevertheless, indexation to net wages should soon become a statutory provision. In the U.K., the preservation ofche real value ofpublic pension benefits has been a long-standing commitment of both the Labour and Conservative Governments, with automatic adjustment of public pension benefits introduced in 1973. The U.S. Public Old Age and Survivor Insurance Program, on the other hand, provides only minimum levels of benefit for the average wage earner. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act, passed in 1974, also did not address the question of inflation protection. The pension legislation recently introduced in Canada and elsewhere reflects the outcome of intensive, heated debates on pension reform, which are ongoing.
0024-6301/89 $3.00 + 00 Pergamon Press plc
Long Range Planning, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 66 to 73, 1989 Printed in Great Britain
Managing
Public Policy Issues
David S. Barrows and Sandra Morris
The role of the public sector has expanded significantly in the last 40 years. The ability to anticipate public policy changes has become a criticalcomponent of an organization’s environmental scanning activities. Today, every segment of society is affected by the development of government policies and programmes. Organizations that correctly anticipate government actions can achieve significant benefits and minimize loss potentials. Given the size and role of government, a significant literature has emerged which attempts to analyse and assess likely public policy developments. The objective of this article is to develop a simplified format, based on this literature, which will allow organizations to develop a check list against which potential public policy actions may be assessed.
The planning process, on the other hand, generally characteristics: has the follo%g (1) An apolitical mentation. (2) A subject
approach
as opposed
to the process of impleto a problem
(3) An inventory to data.
gathering
(4) An unspecific
client, such as ‘the public interest’.
vs Planning
It is important to distinguish between development and planning processes.’
(7) Preparation
the policy
The policy development characteristics:
process has the following
(1) A
to problem
political
approach
solving.
(2) An
issue orientation which is likely reactive to problems or opportunities have already been identified.
(3) A search phase which is limited direction to a particular issue. (4) A particular client for resolution or opportunity.
to be which
in scope and of the problem
(5) A limited time horizon based upon and requirements of the client.
prior to client consul-
of a plan.
There are many points in the policy and planning stages which overlap. Though in a strict sense policy assessment and planning represent conceptually distinct alternatives, this paper suggests that they should be considered equally important to the firms strategic planning process.
Models of Society In an assessment of the policy generation process, it is important to start with a clear model as to how policy is formulated, developed and ultimately implemented. The societal background provides the context within which policy is ultimately determined.
the needs
(6) A constrained search for alternatives which are normally evaluated and then presented to the client. of memorandum, (7) Preparation policy papers, draft legislation, initiate formal activity.
phase; usually oriented
horizon for development (5) A rather long-time and implementation; such as is normally associated with infrastructure investments. (6) A search for alternatives tation.
Policy Development
orientation.
issue papers, in order to
D. S. Barrows is Director of the Industry and Trade Policy Branch of the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Technology in Toronto and adjunct Professor at York University, Sandra Morris is a policy analyst with The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Technology.
There are, essentially, two frameworks or models for viewing the context within which policy is created. The first model is the ‘consensus theory’, which suggests that social order results from a dominant set of shared values. The second model is conflict theory, in which social order is based on domination and constraint. The environmental context in which developed may actually shift over time. For example,
during
policy
is
periods of social unrest, society
Managing
Public Policy
Issues
67
may move from a consensual to a conflicting form of social order. In that case, the framework by which policy is measured and assessed will change. This in turn will influence the amount of freedom, or the limits of action (known as the ‘policy space’) for decision-making.
specific solutions identified.
*
A lack of shared societal values.
The social disturbance may be externally generated by international political events or the result of internal economic changes, such as fundamental technological innovations. In general, externally generated disturbances will allow the policy maker less latitude and discretion in the development of alternatives for action.
*
A lack of criteria trade-offs.
*
The personal
*
Large investments policies.
*
Information constraints in collecting ing the facts in the issue.
*
The segmentation of policy making, and the inability to develop system-wide solutions.
Models of Public Policy Determination A number of models describe the generation the major models are: (1) The Rational
have been developed of public policy. Three
to of
Model.
(2) Incrementalism. (3
Public
Choice.
The Rational Model The development of the rational model influenced by two basic assumptions: (1) The hypothesized man’.
ideal behaviour
A belief in science and the scientific
has been
of ‘economic method.
The economic man model depicts a decision-maker who decides on the basis of maximization of the achievement of an objective. Problems are solved in the following step by step manner:
(1) Identify (2) Examine
the problem
or objective.
alternative means, and the costs and involved in resolving the issue.
to the problems
and opportunities
A number ofproblems have been identified with the assumptions of the rational model, including:*
to assign weights
motivation
of policy
in existing
to evaluate makers.
programs
and
and analys-
Notwithstanding these difliculties, many policies are developed which employ the methodologies of the rational model. The Incremental Model The incremental model assumes that decisions are based upon past actions. The decision-making process is viewed as an iterative process which builds upon previous decisions in order to develop new policies and programmes. The incremental approach restricts consideration of alternatives and their likely consequences. The ability to undertake incremental, as opposed to systemic, changes is founded on the belief that the ultimate objectives and goals of the society are stable. Therefore, there is a high value placed on the need for agreement and consensus. The incremental model is based on the assumption that people do not conform to the ‘economic man’ model, and that information is limited.
to
This approach can function fairly effectively in periods of stability when previous policies and programmes were, essentially, correctly developed. The incremental model is less effective during periods of stress when it is necessary to evaluate a wider range of alternatives and be prepared to undertake unique approaches.
The development of the rational model has formed the basis of a number of scientific approaches to the development of public policy. Such approaches as cost-benefit analysis, planning-programming and budgeting and management by results owe their genesis to the rational approach.
A variation of the incremental model, the mixedscanning approach, has been proposed. In this model it is suggested that societies have the capacity to be rational with respect to a discrete number of decisions. These decisions can be scanned and identified using the rational approach, however, the majority of decisions are left to incremental change.
The rational model can be used at both the macro governmental level and at the micro project decision-making level. The fundamental assumption of the rational model is that the scientific method can identify causal factors and prescribe
The Public Choice Model This model is predicated on the assumption that the decision-makers are self interested. That is, decisions are made by people who have a direct interest in the outcome and therefore, the assessment of altema-
benefits
(3) Objectively approach. (4) Implement
select
the
most
appropriate
the decision.
(5) Evaluate the impacts and alter behaviour correct errors and maximize achievements.
68
Long Range
Planning
Vol. 22
December
tives is to some extent influenced by the rewards or punishments that may accrue to the decision-maker. In this model it is possible to employ a ‘game theory’ approach whereby special interest groups, politicians and bureaucrats are involved in a series of interlocking games. It is possible that these games are ‘zero sum’ where parties may win or lose. Alternatively, it is possible for these games to be positive sums such that all parties win by some form of explicit or tacit collusion. The public choice model in its extreme dismisses the ideal of ‘public interest’ and the capacity of decisionmakers to identify.with the broader public. It is not possible to identify how the many ‘games’ interact and it is, therefore, difficult to utilize this model in assessing the development of public policy. Nonetheless, insofar as decision-makers act in their own self interest, there is at least a component of the public choice model in all government decisionmaking processes.
1989
actively involved immediate basis.
(1) External (2) Internal
three
general
need. capability.
(3) Symbolic. External need refers to responding to a challenge or opportunity in the environment. For example, there may be a ‘need’ to assist manufacturing industries to adopt Japanese production techniques and become more automated in their production processes. This would be done to meet an external challenge in the environment for manufacturing firms to remain competitive in the international market place. Policies and programmes are also developed from issues which are based on internal capabilities. Many governments have developed significant internal capability for infrastructure development. This could include roads, rail, air traffic, power generation or water treatment facilities. This internal capacity can, at times, drive government to undertake activities based on the demonstrated capacity to deliver those outputs within government itself. Therefore, the issues are essentially internally generated. There must of course be some linkage to a perceived external need for most of these projects to ultimately proceed. Governments are required to be seen to be attempting to address the major public policy issues of the day. Because of the nature of many of these problems, it is not always possible for a quick resolution of the issues. For example, medical problems such as AIDS and cancer research are not amenable to short-term solutions. Nonetheless, governments, in a symbolic sense, must be seen to be
with these issues on an
Issues With
respect
to issues, it is important
to assess:
(1) Who is affected? *
A large or small number
*
A broad
(2) How
cross section
are people
Through through
*
Is the effect of people
(3) When
or selective
personal exposure, the media?
group?
deemed
or indirectly to be serious?
will the effects be felt?
z?r Immediately (4) What
of people?
affected?
*
* The Issue Generation Process We have identified the following approaches for issue generation:
in dealing
or in the short/long
can be done about
What
the problem?
are the costs of a solution?
Issue Types It is possible to identify a number types. Bartha has identified the major types of issues? (1) Universal
issues.
(2) Advocacy
issues.
(3) Selective (4) Technical
term?
of generic following
issue four
issues. issues.
Universal issues are those which affect large numbers of people. It is unlikely that these are permanent issues, rather they change with social and economic conditions. Exposure enhanced universal imminent.
to these issues is direct and may be by media attention. The impact of issues is usually viewed as serious and
The concern is such that people feel that the government must repond and a simple and efficient government solution is anticipated. In recent times universal issues have included the energy crisis, inflation and unemployment. In Canada, governments have responded by creating state-owned oil companies, instituting wage and price controls and developing job creation programmes. Advocacy issues stand somewhat lower in the public hierarchy of concerns than universal issues. These are potential rather than actual problems for much of the population. Advocacy issues are introduced to the public by groups claiming to represent the broad public interest. In many cases, the initial response is that large numbers of people do not believe these issues to be critically important. Therefore, they may or may not elicit expectation of imminent
Managing government action. As well, there is less tendency, as opposed to universal issues, to expect a simple government solution. However, once a solution has been identified, large numbers of people may see remedial government action as appropriate. For example, in recent years the need for day care has become an advocacy issue. Selective issues are those which affect identifiable special interest groups. Those affected may be identified on the basis of geography, demographics, occupation or similar group. The costs of solving the problem are passed on to the public at large. Because the solution of the problem is more or less ‘free’ to the special interest group these issues generate intense commitment and activism. Attempts to secure tariff and quota protection for selected industries represent an example of selective issues. Finally, technical issues are those in which the public has little or no direct interest. Normally these are left to the experts. Technical issues, unlike the other issues, have a limited public profile. The vast majority of business-government relations, on a day to day basis, are in this category. This range of activity would include an entire array of technical standards such as water quality, noise levels and pollution levels. It should be noted that it is possible for ‘issue-shift’ to occur. That is, a technical issue, such as radiation emission standards for nuclear power facilities, may become the focus of public attention. The issue could then shift from the technical category to, perhaps, an advocacy issue. Key Publics Bartha has also identified a number of ‘key publics’ in the issues generation and development process, as follows:
(1) General
public.
(2) Media. (3) Interest (4) Political (5) Public
groups. leadership. Service.
The general public is involved primarily in universal issues where a veto can be expressed with regard to government actions on a particular issue. This veto can be activated through mass public opinion, referendum or elections. The media is involved in the issues process as a ‘gatekeeper’. In this capacity the media determines which issues will be brought forward for public scrutiny and in what manner. The media also plays a role in amplifying issues and has the capacity to assist in shifting issues from one category to another. Interest
groups
represent
the selective
groupings
of
Public Policy
peoples and organizations possible to be a member interest groups.
Issues
69
around specific issues. It is of a number of different
Political leadership refers to elected officials, while the public service is the non-elected bureaucracy. Political leadership provides the focal point for bringing forward government initiatives and it is the elected officials who must take ultimate responsibility for approval of major policy thrusts. However, the public service is involved in dealing with the resolution of the day to day issues and also has responsibility for the initial development of most policy and programme recommendations. As well, the public service is responsible for the implementation of programmes. Issue Phases
A number of models exist which identify in the issue generation process. For most follows :
models
there
are three
major
the phases
phases as
(1) The latent phase. (2) The opinion
development
(3) The institutional
action
phase. phase.
In the latent phase issues are recognized by relatively few people. In many cases the interested party may resolve the issue privately at this point. For example, business and government resolve many technical issues in the latent phase. The opinion development phase occurs when the issue has come under scrutiny in the media and has begun to stimulate public debate. At this time, the government may use moral persuasion to alter behaviour without resorting to formal government institutions. Alternatively, the issue may be resolved by voluntary co-operative action. An example of this may occur in certain employment equity activities where business agrees to a selective hiring programme. Finally, in the institutional action phase there is a general awareness of the problem or opportunity. At this time it is normally too late for the private sector to exert significant influence over governmental action. The parameters of the decisionmaking process are fixed and business or other organizations can affect only selected aspects of implementation as opposed to the more fundamental decision as to whether or not the action should take place, Issues Management:
Costs
us Degrees
of Freedom
There are a number of factors for an organization to assess with respect to issues management, including: (1) The costs environment issues.
to
the organization to scan the to identify and track emerging
Long Range
70
Planning
December
Vol. 22
(2) The relative degrees of freedom negative competitive impacts.
to
limit
(3) The relative costs to change the impacts of issues as they move to the legislative and regulatory stages (i.e. the institutional action phase). Figure 1 indicates these variables.
the inter-relationships
amongst
In the latent phase the cost of scanning or identifying issues may be relatively high. However, the degrees of freedom to influence the development of the issue may also be high. It may be possible to obviate the necessity for government action, through the implementation of voluntary measures; for example, in an area such as employee drug testing programmes. As well, the cost of affecting change may be relatively low.
Table 1 develops an issues assessment framework to analyse the various issue characteristics in this paper with respect to this case study. Analysis suggests that the societal model is that of conflict. Little consensus exists with regard to this issue. There is cleavage along religious lines. There also appears to be cleavage on an urban-rural basis; with urban support but a lack of rural support. It would appear that this is an example of the incremental model. Incrementalism involves a continuation and elaboration of past government policies. The analytical framework of the rational model does not appear to be appropriate for analysis in this case. Table 1. Issues assessment framework: beer and wine in corner groceries
In the institutional action phase (legislation/regulation) the cost of scanning the issue should be relatively low. However, the degree of freedom to change the issue should be relatively low, and the cost to affect change should be relatively high.
Model Consensus Conflict Approach Rational Incremental Public choice Issue definition Who How When What done
An Application of the Model: Beer and Wine in Corner Grocery Stores It is now appropriate to determine the applicability
Generation External Internal Symbolic
of the model developed in this paper to a specific issue. Appendix 1 summarizes some of the major components of the issue of the sale of beer and wine in corner grocery stores in the Province of Ontario, Canada.
Universal Advocacy Selective Technical Phases Latent Opinion development Institutional action
Integration
Control
Time
1
Selected Direct Now Legislation
X X
Type
Essentially, the issue is associated with government control over the sale and distribution of alcoholic beverages through retail outlets. At the present time in the Province of Ontario this distribution process is retricted to government-owned or licensed operations.
Figure
1989
X X
X
Managing With regard to the issue generation process, it would appear that this issue is somewhat internal and symbolic. The government has the internal capacity to change the nature of beer and wine distribution in response to what appears to be a somewhat ‘weak’ external signal that change could be desirable. Also, in some respects this is a symbolic issue. As the Province of Ontario has become more multicultured, urban and sophisticated, there is a greater need to appear to be ‘modem’ in terms of the sale and distribution ofbeer and wine. Movement in this direction could be seen as a symbolic act to address the perceived need to be in step with the times. Analysis of the four issue types suggests that beer and wine is either an advocacy and/or selective issue. The issue is not universal as it is not a critical issue for the majority of the population. Similarly, it is not a technical issue as there is an efficient and effective distribution system within the Province of Ontario. However, it is an advocacy/selective issue as certain groups within the population favour this approach to the distribution process. These groups would include the retail sector which favours such activity and certain ethnic and urban groups. On the negative side, certain religious and union groups oppose the proposed changes on religious and equity grounds. The impact would be direct and the likely development immediate. The issue would be activated by means of legislation. Within the Province of Ontario the issue is in the opinion development stage. That is, it is no longer latent insofar as it has received a reasonable amount of discussion. However, it has not reached the institutional action phase whereby decisions have been made and there is very little to impact on the issue. The issues assessment framework would suggest that the various interest groups have an opportunity to influence events given the nature and the development of this issue to date. Lobbying and advocacy strategies can now be developed based upon this approach and given the degree of development and maturation of this issue. Second
Application
of the Model:
Pay Equity
A second application of the model focuses on the pay equity issue. Appendix 2 summarizes the major components of the issue, and Table 2 develops the assessment framework to analyse the characteristics of the issue. The wage gap between men and women has arisen because the work predominantly performed by women is valued differently than the work performed by men. Analysis suggests that the social order which values men and women differently is one based on domination and constraint; therefore, the societal model applicable to the pay equity issue is that of conflict.
Public Policy
Table 2. Issues assessment pay equity
Issues
71
framework:
Model Consensus Conflict Approach Rational Incremental Public choice Issue definition Who How When What done
Selected Direct Now Legislation
Generation External Internal Symbolic
X
X
Type
Universal Advocacy Selective Technical
X
Phases Latent Opinion development Institutional action
X
When viewed in the context of the long history of human rights legislation, and given the gradual introduction of the legislation, the incremental model appears to be the relevant analytical framework. The issue generation process appears to be external and symbolic, with governments recognizing that they should be perceived as promoting equal pay for work of equal value, and responding to external pressure to redress wage imbalances. Conceptually, pay equity could affect most employers and all of the female workforce, making the issue universal in nature. In practice, the fact that the pay equity legislation applies on an establishment basis, and that points of comparison within firms may be limited, effectively rules out large segments of the female workforce. Hence, the issue tends to be selective, with women who work outside the home the identifiable group towards whom benefits are targetted, but where only a fraction of those women will actually be affected. As indicated in Table 2, legislation affecting the public sector and private sector firms with more than 10 employees was introduced in Ontario on 15 June 1986. Within the Province of Ontario (and a number of other jurisdictions) the issue is in the legislative action phase. As a result, opportunities for affected firms to influence the issue now via lobbying and advocacy strategies are limited. Third Application
The pension
of the Model:
reform
Pension
issue provides
Reform
a third opportu-
72
Long Range
Planning
Vol. 22
December
nity to test the application of the model. Appendix 3 and Table 3 summarize the major components and assessment framework, respectively, of the pension reform issue. In recent years, pension reform has been the subject of intensive debates between firms and their employees, with little apparent consensus on appropriate solutions. The societal model applicable to the issue, then, is that of conflict. In many cases, legislation has been introduced and then amended, with partial indexation often a considered first step to full indexation; and with public plans fully indexed before private ones. The incremental model is therefore the relevant analytical framework. The issue generation process is again external and symbolic, with governments responding to external pressure for the protection of real pension benefits for retirees. In this case, the issue type tends to be universal, with pension reform affecting most employed persons directly, and many unemployed persons indirectly, via spouses and/or non-income-related government plans. As Table 3 indicates, the pension reform issue is in the legislative action phase in Ontario; but is only in the opinion development phase in some countries, providing affected parties in those jurisdictions the opportunity to influence the issue via lobbying.
Table 3. Issues assessment tension reform
framework:
1989
Conclusion This paper has attempted to develop a framework or model for analysing public policy issues. The simplified model appears to have the potential to be used to categorize public policy issues and to determine their relative position and importance. Based upon this analysis it is then possible to develop advocacy strategies and implementation programs to influence the development of subsequent public policy.
References (1) C. Patton and D. Sawicki, Basic Methods of Policy Analysis and Planning, Prentice Hall (1986). (2) T. Dye, Understanding Public Policy, Prentice-Hall (3)
(1975).
P. Bartha, Managing Corporate External Issuas: An Analytical Framework, Business Can Succeed: Understanding the Political Environment, edited by J. Fleck and I. Litvak, Gage Publishing Company, Toronto. Canada (1984).
Appendix Key Components
1 ofthe Safe of Beer and Wine in Corner
Grocery Stores Issue
On 28 October wine in comer
1986, legislation to permit the sale of beer and grocery stores in Ontario was defeated.
Beer and wine has been sold in corner stores in Quebec since 1978; in Newfoundland it has been sold in corner stores since 1949. Ontario legislation was designed sales to domestic labels.
to limit
the beer and wine
Model Consensus Conflict
In response, European and U.S. producers applied Ontario to allow foreign liquor sales as well.
Approach Rational Incremental Public choice
Within Ontario, independents do not want to share beer and wine sales with the major chains; the chains do not want sales limited to the independents.
Issue definition Who How When What done Generation External Internal Symbolic
All Direct Now Legislation
Phases Latent Opinion development Institutional action
on
Brewers Retail (the licensed distributor of beer) is opposed because of probable loss of government jobs; small business is in favour because of (potential) employment gains. The Church sees the potential deaths and accidents.
for increased
drinking-related
X
X
Type
Universal Advocacy Selective Technical
pressure
X
X
Appendix
2
Key Components of the Pay Equity Issue On 15 June 1987, legislation was passed in Ontario requiring public and private sector firms to evaluate and address the issue of gender-based pay discrimination. ‘Pay equity’ is a system which attempts to ensure that equal compensation is paid for work of equal value, regardless of the gender of the person performing the work.
Managing In Canada, Manitoba implemented pay equity legislation for the public sector in 1984; Quebec has some coverage in its human rights legislation; and Alberta, PEI, New Brunswick and Newfoundland have only debated the issue. In the U.S., 45 states have passed bills to study the pay equity concept, while four states (Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin) have passed implementing legislation. The U.K. has pay equity legislation in its Charter while Australia, New Zealand and some countries have distinct legislation in place.
of Rights, in Europe
The Ontario legislation requires employers to develop the plans to redress wage imbalances. Pay increases are to be phased in, starting in 1.986 for the public sector and ending in 1993 for smaller firms. Labour unions and women groups, supportive of the bill, argue that women have historically subsidized firms, through lower wages. Small business argues that the costs of implementing the legislation will be unrealistically high; and may result in layoffs. The standard
Appendix
cleavage
along political
lines is evident.
3
Key Components of the Pension Reform Issue The Task Force on Inflation Protection for Employment Pension Plans was appointed by the Ontario government on
Public Policy
Issues
9 December 1986, just as Bill 170 (the Pension 1987). was introduced to the Legislature. Specific included Bill 170 pension
Benefits
73 Act,
provisions for inflation protection were not initially in the Bill, but on 25 June 1987 (on third reading), was amended to include a formal requirement that plans be adjusted for inflation.
In Canada, all federal government pensions and supplements are fully indexed to the consumer price index, but few private sector plans are automatically indexed. France and Sweden integrate public and private plans, with public pensions fully indexed and adjustments made annually to private pensions up to the rise in the CPI. Germany had a fully indexed government-run pension plan, with pensions in the private sector periodically adjusted, but between 1978 and 1982 the indexing scheme was suspended in favour of ad hoc adjustments for inflation. Nevertheless, indexation to net wages should soon become a statutory provision. In the U.K., the preservation ofche real value ofpublic pension benefits has been a long-standing commitment of both the Labour and Conservative Governments, with automatic adjustment of public pension benefits introduced in 1973. The U.S. Public Old Age and Survivor Insurance Program, on the other hand, provides only minimum levels of benefit for the average wage earner. The Employee Retirement Income Security Act, passed in 1974, also did not address the question of inflation protection. The pension legislation recently introduced in Canada and elsewhere reflects the outcome of intensive, heated debates on pension reform, which are ongoing.