Markets
& Business
Cell phones to grow 8% in 2001 to 440m West Europe will fall 13% as the
However, “combined with
2006, says vp David Kerr. “But
many analysts that cell-phone
replacement
strong growth in emerging
despite GSM capturing most
sales in 2001 will be nearly
make up the shortfall left by
regions, worldwide handset
future Time Division Multiple
low subscriber growth in a
sales will post healthy growth
Access [TDMA] capacity, it will
saturated market. “To a lesser
for the next five years” of 20%
be Code Division Multiple
tor of Strategy Analytics Inc’s
degree, a similar trend has
annually to over lbn in 2006.
Access [CDMA] which emerges
Global Wireless Practice
been seen in North America,
GSM will continue to dominate,
as the fastest growing cellular
group) forecasts
though both regions will
accounting
platform over the next five
recover ln 2002”.
scribers and handset sales by
In contrast
to forecasts
by
flat with last year’s 410m units, Phil Kendall (the direc-
growth of
8% in 2001 to 440m units.
market fails to
for 70% of sub
years,” he added.
Cell-phone technology licensed to stimulate market Handset vendors have been
component
increasingly outsourcing
layouts and software).
pro-
duction and design to lowcost contract
manufacturers,
but
now both Motorola and Ericsson are licensing their cell-phone technology.
specifications,
PCB
limited R&D investment, able
are already established in the
to focus on product differentia-
industry and give potential new
tion such as applications, indus-
entrants a quick way to intro
trial design, distribution and
duce phones with novel data
branding.
and entertainment
did earlier. . .Few companies
Motorola is to sell its most
Motorola is betting that any
will deliver platform chipsets,
advanced cell-phone chip-sets,
extra competition
“We see the handset market going through the same transformation as the PC industry
Hoping to stimulate the wire-
but many companies will
less industry in September
software and production
deliver handsets,” said Senior
B&sson created a new company
to other handset makers (such
vp Technology Jan Uddenfeldt.
as Philips,Alcatel and other sec-
called Brlcsson Mobile
tools
for its hand-
set business (its largest unit) will be offset by new chip revenues (see overleaf) and that the stimulation to the industry
Platforms (Lund, Sweden),
Wingren says that the platforms
ond-tier manufacturers
under president Tord Wingren
will be the fastest way for an
Semiconductor
Its aim is to offer complete
Original Equipment
director of strategy and market-
proprietary
2.5G and 3G technology
Manufacturer and an Original
ing Ray Burgess said that the
drive handset sales. Its goal is to
platforms to other handset
Development
technology
add US$ 1Obn to annual rev-
makers (including complete
launch a new product with
Manufacturer to
in Asia).
features.
operations
could cut costs and
design time for companies who
would raise overall handset sales, rather than relying on chip technology
to
enues by 2005.
Taiwan to rely on outsourcing from major players Taiwan’s contract
handset
makers are expecting
However,
signiti-
in September ACM
Q3/2001,
ACM will not unveil
was due to begin massproduc-
its GPRS prototypes
cant growth in their shipments
tion of Motorola’s new GSM
Q1/2002
to major cell-phone players in
handset (codenamed
tion not due until Q3/2002).
Q4/2001.
ACM’s shipments overall may
%
MultimedIa (ACM) shipped only 2.2m handsets, while July and August shipments
Q3/2001
and over 2m in
Q4/2001
(allowing it to reach
its projected
(with mass produc-
In August GVC was forced to
therefore reach 1.5m units in
In first-half 200 1, Acer communications
MARCH).
until
stop some shipments due to some clients delaying payment
full-year shipment
target of 6m).
(shipping perhaps less than 100,000
handsets). However, it
Nevertheless, centrate
GVC will con-
on providing Original
Design Manufacturer
services
to larger international
players
in future. In Q4/2001
GVC’s
monthly shipments should rise to 200,000
units, mostly due to
an order from Ericsson. Meanwhile, Dbtel Technology
was due to resume normal ship
expects to ship about 500,000-
only totalled about 350,000
Although most manufacturers
ments in September and should
600,000
handsets each.
have released GPRS products in
reach its 43 target of 300,000.
Q4/2001.
units in both Q3 and
Market for handset ICs to grow 50% in 2002 The market for handset-based
Allen Nogee of Cahners In-Stat
large reductions in produc-
However, “By the latter half of
chip will slowly recover
Group Inc.
tion have helped to ease
the year; production and
from
USS14.6bn
in 2001 to
“Gluts of both handsets and
the oversupply problem,”
demand should be in check,”
US$21.?bn
in 2002, says
components still exist, but
Nogee says.
he adds.
Ill%
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