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Market for satellite private business network terminals in the US
Communications processor market in Europe Frost & Sullivan, USA (1 982) 464 pp The market for communications processors in Europe, at $270M in 1981, will peak at $430M in 1984 and then level off, declining slightly to $387M in 1986, accordingto this market forecast. Over the period 1982-86, the market will cumulatively total $1 700M. The software associated with such equipment will more than quadruple in shipment value over the same timeframe, although from a smaller base. Software sales of $21M in 1981 will increase to reach $93M in 1986. Over the study timeframe, the software market will total $322 million. The two-volume study explores the technology and markets for the five types of processors: front-end processors, network node computers, concentrators, messageswitching systems and packetswitching systems. Each of these are analysed within a dozen European nations, where the FRG, France and the UK will account for more than 50% of all shipments during the study timeframe.
The current leading equipment category is the front-end processor, and this will continue throughout the study timeframe. The front-end processor is minicomputer-based and is interposed between a host mainframe and the network to handle communications functions on behalf of the host. Unit sales will nearly double from 1550 units in 1981 to 2925 units in 1986. Shipment value will not keep pace, however, reflecting the decline in processor and memory prices over the next five years. Front-end processor software sales, moreover, will jump almost 400%. The most dramatic leap in sales and quantities will be seen in network node computers, as user interest turns to host-controlled local area networks, and as demand increases for gateways between networks. Node computer unit sales will escalate from 220 to 2 400, more than atenfold increase. Again, the cost of each unit will erode so that shipment value gains will not be proportionate. As for the
Market for satellite private business network terminals in the US Frost & Sullivan, USA (1 982) $1 275 The market for private satellite services, at $146M in 1981, is projected to rise to $1 200M in 1985 and to $ 2 9 0 0 M in 1991, according to this study. Even with this rapid growth, less than half the long-term market potential will be realized by 1991, states the report, which analyses both the satellite system owner/ operators and the satellite equipment manufacturers while assessing the market potential by type of customer.
vol 6 no 1 february 1983
Further, the report focuses on the use of satellites in private business networks where services offered include voice, data transmission, facsimile and teleconferencing. Nevertheless, of the millions of dollars spent annually on telecommunications by the large US corporations, approximately 75% goes for intracorporate communications, mostly telephone. Between 1970 and 1980, for example, AT&T's revenue from WATs and toll private-line services
software run on node computers, its sales will rise from $1M to nearly $20M in the same timeframe. The number of packet-switching systems sold will triple, from 43 in 1981 to 116 in 1986. The increased demand will result from the new packet-switching systems being installed in national public data networks throughout Europe over the next five years. Price erosion will be so pronounced that packetswitching systems sales will even stagnate. Some equipment categories will not fare nearly as well. The functions of message-switching systems, for example, will be absorbed by the newer networks. Text traffic, which has been the mainstay of message-switching systems, will be transferred to national Telex, public data networks and viewdata systems that are supported by central computers and distributed data processing systems. Indeed, unit sales will fall by nearly 60% by 1986. Similarly, the programmable concentrator has become an 'endangered species', the report says, with its functions usurped by the statistical multiplexer. Both hardware and software sales will drop drastically. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY 10038, USA. Tel: 212 233 1080)
alone increased from $3 000M to $6 300M. It is traditional services such as these that now stand to be replaced by private satellite networks. The glamour areas pale by comparison, especially for the immediate future, although satellite's greatest potential in private networks is said to be data transmission, facsimile and teleconferencing. At the beginning of 1982, 62 private companies, almost half of them engaged in manufacturing, and 13 government organizations owned private satellite networks, the study reports. The combined value of their earthstations alone is $95M, making the value of the typical ground segment about $1.3M.
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Moreover, this market is growing. Indeed, earthstation sales of $49M in 1981 are projected to increase fifteenfold to $887M in 1991. By that time, the cumulative value of the installed stations will be $4 200M, the report projects. More than three dozen companies manufacture earthstations, pricing their equipment from $20000 to $500 000, depending on capabilities. A $20 000 station, for example, may consist of a receive-only antenna for teleconferencing. A $500 000 station that handles voice, data, facsimile and video might have a radio frequency
terminal, high-speed burst modem, satellite communications controller, port adapter system and monitor and command loop. In 1981, US satellite capacity available for business private networks was equivalent to 49 transponders, or 29% of total transponders. By 1985, some 296 transponders will be available for private domestic networks, amounting to 54% of the total. By 1991, the figure will be 712 transponders, or 65% of total domestic satellite capacity. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY 10038, USA. Tel: 212 233 1080) []
Fibre optics for process control and business communications Era Technology, UK (1982) £1 800 This multiclient study highlights a number of technological gaps that exist and which will hamper the growth of short-haul fibre optics systems. The five volume report points out that although fibre optics is already being used in process plants and data communications applications, the absence of a lowcost means of signal regeneration and an efficient, simple coupler will
restrict the growth in European shipments of these systems to 40% annually. Even though the total current European market for short-haul systems is small compared to longhaul telecommunications, a large number of firms are working in this area and they should be able to provide suitable solutions for the key technology gaps.
Optical character recognition markets IRD, USA (1982) 188 pp, $985 Before the end of the decade, optical character recognition (OCR) will make its first penetration into the home market. OCR wands and compact, manually fed pagereaders, will be used by writers, researchers and others with heavy text processing loads to input documents not available in machinereadable form. According to this report, this trend will be largely attributable to the declining cost of OCR devices, but will change direction as hand-fed pagereaders become available for as little as $1 000 or less.
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One of the bright spots for OCR, according to the report, will be in reading labels on clothing and other merchandise, where OCR is steadily gaining ground against bar codes and other technologies. OCR has the great advantage in this application that people, as well as machines, can read the labels. Thus shoppers do not feel the same suspicion towards OCR-readable labels as they do towards the more cryptic bar codes. In other areas, OCR will be more susceptible to technological progress. Its penetration of the banking
Over 100 major suppliers worldwide are identified in the report. There is no shortage of suppliers waiting for the market to expand. Semiconductor and connector manufacturers have not been slow to add optoelectronic products to their product ranges. Cable television could have the most dramatic impact, economically and technically, if the appropriate decisions are taken and the potential major suppliers are actively involved in fibre optics technology. This, together with other possible influences on shortrange systems for business and process control are discussed in a UK market overview. One volume of the report is devoted to an analysis of ten shorthaul fibre-optics systems in operation in the UK, with particular emphasis on industrial applications in hazardous atmospheres and environments subject to acute electrical interference. (IPI, 134 Holland Park Avenue, London W l l 4UE, UK. Tel:01 221 0998, Tx:22861) [] market, for example, will suffer as a side-effect of banks adopting electronic weaponry in their battle against rising costs. Chequevolumes have been increasing by 5% or more per year over the past decade, and at $0.50 or more per cheque, this is adding up to staggering check processing costs. Banks are trying to reduce these costs by substituting consumer keyboarding for check writing; specifically, by implementing such technologies as automated teller machines and telebanking. These innovations are reducing both the rate at which cheque volumes are growing and the banks' need for OCR. This does not mean that the demand for OCR equipment has been reduced to zero. The completely checkless society is as far away as the fully automated office. With the banks, too, OCR's short- to medium-term outlook is good. (International Resource Development Inc., 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA. Tel: 800 243 5008, Tx: 643452) []
computer communications
The current leading equipment category is the front-end processor, and this will continue throughout the study timeframe. The front-end processor is minicomputer-based and is interposed between a host mainframe and the network to handle communications functions on behalf of the host. Unit sales will nearly double from 1550 units in 1981 to 2925 units in 1986. Shipment value will not keep pace, however, reflecting the decline in processor and memory prices over the next five years. Front-end processor software sales, moreover, will jump almost 400%. The most dramatic leap in sales and quantities will be seen in network node computers, as user interest turns to host-controlled local area networks, and as demand increases for gateways between networks. Node computer unit sales will escalate from 220 to 2 400, more than atenfold increase. Again, the cost of each unit will erode so that shipment value gains will not be proportionate. As for the
Market for satellite private business network terminals in the US Frost & Sullivan, USA (1 982) $1 275 The market for private satellite services, at $146M in 1981, is projected to rise to $1 200M in 1985 and to $ 2 9 0 0 M in 1991, according to this study. Even with this rapid growth, less than half the long-term market potential will be realized by 1991, states the report, which analyses both the satellite system owner/ operators and the satellite equipment manufacturers while assessing the market potential by type of customer.
vol 6 no 1 february 1983
Further, the report focuses on the use of satellites in private business networks where services offered include voice, data transmission, facsimile and teleconferencing. Nevertheless, of the millions of dollars spent annually on telecommunications by the large US corporations, approximately 75% goes for intracorporate communications, mostly telephone. Between 1970 and 1980, for example, AT&T's revenue from WATs and toll private-line services
software run on node computers, its sales will rise from $1M to nearly $20M in the same timeframe. The number of packet-switching systems sold will triple, from 43 in 1981 to 116 in 1986. The increased demand will result from the new packet-switching systems being installed in national public data networks throughout Europe over the next five years. Price erosion will be so pronounced that packetswitching systems sales will even stagnate. Some equipment categories will not fare nearly as well. The functions of message-switching systems, for example, will be absorbed by the newer networks. Text traffic, which has been the mainstay of message-switching systems, will be transferred to national Telex, public data networks and viewdata systems that are supported by central computers and distributed data processing systems. Indeed, unit sales will fall by nearly 60% by 1986. Similarly, the programmable concentrator has become an 'endangered species', the report says, with its functions usurped by the statistical multiplexer. Both hardware and software sales will drop drastically. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY 10038, USA. Tel: 212 233 1080)
alone increased from $3 000M to $6 300M. It is traditional services such as these that now stand to be replaced by private satellite networks. The glamour areas pale by comparison, especially for the immediate future, although satellite's greatest potential in private networks is said to be data transmission, facsimile and teleconferencing. At the beginning of 1982, 62 private companies, almost half of them engaged in manufacturing, and 13 government organizations owned private satellite networks, the study reports. The combined value of their earthstations alone is $95M, making the value of the typical ground segment about $1.3M.
39
Moreover, this market is growing. Indeed, earthstation sales of $49M in 1981 are projected to increase fifteenfold to $887M in 1991. By that time, the cumulative value of the installed stations will be $4 200M, the report projects. More than three dozen companies manufacture earthstations, pricing their equipment from $20000 to $500 000, depending on capabilities. A $20 000 station, for example, may consist of a receive-only antenna for teleconferencing. A $500 000 station that handles voice, data, facsimile and video might have a radio frequency
terminal, high-speed burst modem, satellite communications controller, port adapter system and monitor and command loop. In 1981, US satellite capacity available for business private networks was equivalent to 49 transponders, or 29% of total transponders. By 1985, some 296 transponders will be available for private domestic networks, amounting to 54% of the total. By 1991, the figure will be 712 transponders, or 65% of total domestic satellite capacity. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., 106 Fulton Street, New York, NY 10038, USA. Tel: 212 233 1080) []
Fibre optics for process control and business communications Era Technology, UK (1982) £1 800 This multiclient study highlights a number of technological gaps that exist and which will hamper the growth of short-haul fibre optics systems. The five volume report points out that although fibre optics is already being used in process plants and data communications applications, the absence of a lowcost means of signal regeneration and an efficient, simple coupler will
restrict the growth in European shipments of these systems to 40% annually. Even though the total current European market for short-haul systems is small compared to longhaul telecommunications, a large number of firms are working in this area and they should be able to provide suitable solutions for the key technology gaps.
Optical character recognition markets IRD, USA (1982) 188 pp, $985 Before the end of the decade, optical character recognition (OCR) will make its first penetration into the home market. OCR wands and compact, manually fed pagereaders, will be used by writers, researchers and others with heavy text processing loads to input documents not available in machinereadable form. According to this report, this trend will be largely attributable to the declining cost of OCR devices, but will change direction as hand-fed pagereaders become available for as little as $1 000 or less.
40
One of the bright spots for OCR, according to the report, will be in reading labels on clothing and other merchandise, where OCR is steadily gaining ground against bar codes and other technologies. OCR has the great advantage in this application that people, as well as machines, can read the labels. Thus shoppers do not feel the same suspicion towards OCR-readable labels as they do towards the more cryptic bar codes. In other areas, OCR will be more susceptible to technological progress. Its penetration of the banking
Over 100 major suppliers worldwide are identified in the report. There is no shortage of suppliers waiting for the market to expand. Semiconductor and connector manufacturers have not been slow to add optoelectronic products to their product ranges. Cable television could have the most dramatic impact, economically and technically, if the appropriate decisions are taken and the potential major suppliers are actively involved in fibre optics technology. This, together with other possible influences on shortrange systems for business and process control are discussed in a UK market overview. One volume of the report is devoted to an analysis of ten shorthaul fibre-optics systems in operation in the UK, with particular emphasis on industrial applications in hazardous atmospheres and environments subject to acute electrical interference. (IPI, 134 Holland Park Avenue, London W l l 4UE, UK. Tel:01 221 0998, Tx:22861) [] market, for example, will suffer as a side-effect of banks adopting electronic weaponry in their battle against rising costs. Chequevolumes have been increasing by 5% or more per year over the past decade, and at $0.50 or more per cheque, this is adding up to staggering check processing costs. Banks are trying to reduce these costs by substituting consumer keyboarding for check writing; specifically, by implementing such technologies as automated teller machines and telebanking. These innovations are reducing both the rate at which cheque volumes are growing and the banks' need for OCR. This does not mean that the demand for OCR equipment has been reduced to zero. The completely checkless society is as far away as the fully automated office. With the banks, too, OCR's short- to medium-term outlook is good. (International Resource Development Inc., 30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851, USA. Tel: 800 243 5008, Tx: 643452) []
computer communications