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Marketing research: Analysis and measurement
132
Long Range Planning, Vol. 16, No. Printed in Great Britain
Book
I, pp. 132 to 136, 1983
00246301/83/010132-05$03.00/O Pergamon Press Ltd.
Reviews
Edited by Hurry Jones
Leisure and Work: The Choices for 1991 and 2001, W. H. MARTIN and S. MASON, Leisure Consultants, Sudbury, Suffolk (1982) 283 pp. L30.00 (spiral bound). The future of employment is the most critical problem facing the developed nations to the end of the century. A great deal has been written about possible futures and the ‘postindustrial society’; most of it has, however, been speculative lacking any rigorous attempt to quantification. This lengthy and detailed report goes some way to rectifying this failing. This is a report, rather than a book, written in a terse style complemented by 65 tables and charts. The basis for the work is the development of four scenarios combining two sets of economic assumptions (high or low economic growth) and two sets of social assumptions (conventional or transformed values). The four scenarios are entitled: Conventional Success; Transformed Growth: Frustration and Self-restraint. The arguments are developed logically through the five parts of the report. Part I defines the purpose of the research and describes the methodology and the basic model used in the subsequent parts. Part 2 considers individual social and economic trends drawing upon the experience of the past 20 years, identifying those whose future evolution are fairly predictable and those of greater uncertainty. Part 3 develops the four scenarios using them to identify the main alternative types of development to 1991 and 2001. Part 4 draws together the four scenarios isolating the major differences. The authors then discuss what seems to them the most likely path which does not correspond with one of the scenarios throughout the period but involves a change en route as economic performance or social values change with time. Part V examines the significance of the scenarios for leisure in greater depth. A distinction is made between enforced leisure (i.e. unemployment) or increased leisure through changed social attitudes (e.g. work sharing). The division between these and the relationship with economic performance is highlighted in forecasts of the different types of leisure activity which would ensue under different circumstances. This is a report which should be read by all concerned with long-range planning for business decisions and might be regarded as essential reading for those directly concerned with the leisure industry. As with all future studies of this type there can be no firm prediction of what the future will hold, a point the authors are careful to stress. The value of the report is that it does provide a logical framework for analysis. Furthermore, it supports the scenarios with quantified data. If the reader disagrees with thejudgments of the authors he has a basis for feeding his own views into the analysis and evaluating their effect.
No report of this type can ever be wholly comprehensive. In the reviewer’s view the effect of new technology upon productivity has been glossed over. A number of graphs show the relationship between unemployment on the one hand and the difference between economic growth and productivity on the other. For example, in one scenario with an assumed 3 per cent output growth, unemployment can vary between 2 million at a 3 per cent productivity growth and 10 million if productivity growth were to rise to 5 per cent. The report is valuable in highlighting this problem but lacks the detailed discussion devoted to other economic variables. No doubt other readers would have different detailed criticisms. These should not, however, be regarded as a major criticism of a work with such a wide-ranging remit. Others who should give this report careful consideration are those concerned with the formation of social, economic and political policy. For it is they who, by assessing the consequences of the various scenarios, can help to steer society towards a more desirable future.
BRIANC. TWISS, Head of the Bradford and Policy Centre
Alternatives,
University
Group for Forecasting of Bradford management (971)
Marketing Research: Analysis and Measurement, P. M. Chisnall, McGraw-Hill, Maidenhead (1981) 391 pp. AI2.95 (hardback) and &SO (softback). A very useful book for the planner. For the reader who requires a modern reference text with a strong comprehensive structure this is the book to buy. The second edition of this text provides a systematic introduction to the principles and practises of market research. It assumes no knowledge and carefully takes the reader through the main areas of market research. It is essentially practical but well supported by a sound underlying theoretical structure. The book has two main parts. The first part comprises 10 well-written chapters on the techniques and analytical basis of market research. Readers are introduced to the history of market research, samples and sampling, and the main methodology of market research. Statistical decision theory has its own chapter and this provides a useful insight to the theoretical basis to support market research methodology. To chapters on Questionnaires, complete this first part, Qualitative Research, Interviewing and Continuous Marketing Research form a comprehensive insight on data collection methodology.
Book Reviews Whereas the first part of the book has the theme methodology, the second part gravitates towards areas of specific application. Seven chapters on Test Marketing, Advertising Research, Industrial Market Research, Overseas Market Research and Market Research in Service Industries provide the reader with a sound introduction on getting the most out of market research. To complete the book the author provides a short insight into the purchasing of market research services. As a study book for business graduates and post-graduates the book is first class. As a reference book for the occasional use by managers it has many virtues due to its comprehensive coverage. Bearing in mind that the book was written for these two segments then the book is a very useful contribution. Although not essential reading, a manager’s bookshelf without a copy can only be described as deficient. JAMES NOON, Assistant Director, Henley Management Development & Advisory Service and Senior Tutor in Marketing, Henley-The Management College (884)
Feedback from Tomorrow, A. J. DAKIN, Pion London (1979), 489 pp. A15.95 (hardback).
and Methuen,
This is an outstanding work which since its publication in 1979 appears to have been ignored by the reviewers. In fact I have failed to trace any published mention of this work and discovered it when searching in a bookshop for information for material for a report.on future trends. The author identifies future. These are: 1. 2. 3. 4.
four key factors
which
will shape our
Information Technology. The Environment. Space Technology. The Mass Media.
He sees the first three being merged into a viable plan for our future. This will be due to space technology developing from information technology and feeding back information by satellites. This will help us to establish an understanding of how the ecosystem works. At present the ecology movement mistrust the IT revolution. The author holds qualifications in and has worked in the areas ofarchitecture, urban and regional planning and social studies. The science of meaning is explored in relation to information technology, and communications are examined. Finally, a series of problems (or knots as the author calls them) are identified and suggested solutions are given. The main problem is seen to be the mass media which in most cases is negative and is a barrier to understainding. A diagram showing the relationship between these knots concludes the work. This alone is vital for the planner as a guide to the way forward. This work should be widely read by architects, urban and regional planners, corporate planners, engineers and technologists and social workers. But above all by the politicians. It is well written, and unlike many works in this area, easy to read and the enquiring layman would find it of interest if he knew it existed. Therefore the future professionals should read it and make the content known to the public. We badly need good guidelines for the future. This is one of the best I have read.
The only gap is that there is no discussion and job creation. B. C. BURROWS, Economic Development Corporation
Research,
133
on unemployment
Milton
Keynes (984)
Business Fluctuations: Forecasting Techniques and Applications, D. G. BAILS and L. C. PEPPERS, Prentice-Hall International, Hemel Hempstead (1982), 481 pp. Q8.70 (hardback). Business Fluctuations is an interesting book. It consists of six parts. Part I deals with Business Cycles. Part II provides an overview of the time series decomposition approach. Part III describes simple regression, while Part IV expands the description to multiple regression. Part V discusses movingaverage and exponential smoothing models. Finally, Part VI is concerned with the effectiveness of forecasting and how forecasts can be better communicated to management. Business Fluctuations is well-written, it includes many exercises and several realistic descriptions of forecasting situations. In addition, there are several data sets to be used by students who would like to practice with the forecasting methods described in the book. This reviewer believes that the biggest contribution of the Business Fluctuations is its attempt to combine the economic (macro) and the time series (micro) approaches. This reviewer, however, disagrees with the authors that their book ‘is pragmatic in nature’, or’that it is unique in what it is doing. Granger and Newbold (1977), Makridakis and Wheelwright (1978), Wheelwright and Makridakis (3rd Ed.), 1980 and Cleary and Levenbach (1982) cover similar material as those of Business Fluctuations and are not ‘advanced treatises in econometrics and time-series modeling, studies in macroeconomic theory, or a smorgasbord of historical summaries and theories devoid of statistical interpretation’ which according to the authors are the only type of forecasting books that now exist. By far the most interesting part of the book is Part I. It provides an excellent summary of business cycles and superb description of the 1974-75 recession. It gives a detailed account of the forecasts made before, during and after the recession and compares these forecasts with actual values. This is done by comparing the forecasts made in the beginning of 1974, and by examining forecasts of a quarterly and monthly interval. To a certain extent, the book overemphasizes the importance of business cycles on forecasting. Business fluctuations influence medium term planning and mainly budget forecasts. To suggest, as the authors do, that this is the only and most critical aspect of forecasting, is wrong. In final analysis, predicting cyclical fluctuations is not but one of the many facets of forecasting. The biggest problem with the book is that no solutions are offered as to what can be done once it has been accepted that business fluctuations cannot be predicted. The authors’ suggestion that there is, somehow, a ‘pragmatic empirical approach’ which they describe in Parts II-V is not accurate. No such approach is given. Rather, Parts II-V. are a traditional expose of decomposition, regression and exponential smoothing methods which offer little new. Furthermore, these methods cannot help the practical forecaster in predicting business cycles better. In the opinion of this reviewer, a pragmatic and practical approach to the
Long Range Planning, Vol. 16, No. Printed in Great Britain
Book
I, pp. 132 to 136, 1983
00246301/83/010132-05$03.00/O Pergamon Press Ltd.
Reviews
Edited by Hurry Jones
Leisure and Work: The Choices for 1991 and 2001, W. H. MARTIN and S. MASON, Leisure Consultants, Sudbury, Suffolk (1982) 283 pp. L30.00 (spiral bound). The future of employment is the most critical problem facing the developed nations to the end of the century. A great deal has been written about possible futures and the ‘postindustrial society’; most of it has, however, been speculative lacking any rigorous attempt to quantification. This lengthy and detailed report goes some way to rectifying this failing. This is a report, rather than a book, written in a terse style complemented by 65 tables and charts. The basis for the work is the development of four scenarios combining two sets of economic assumptions (high or low economic growth) and two sets of social assumptions (conventional or transformed values). The four scenarios are entitled: Conventional Success; Transformed Growth: Frustration and Self-restraint. The arguments are developed logically through the five parts of the report. Part I defines the purpose of the research and describes the methodology and the basic model used in the subsequent parts. Part 2 considers individual social and economic trends drawing upon the experience of the past 20 years, identifying those whose future evolution are fairly predictable and those of greater uncertainty. Part 3 develops the four scenarios using them to identify the main alternative types of development to 1991 and 2001. Part 4 draws together the four scenarios isolating the major differences. The authors then discuss what seems to them the most likely path which does not correspond with one of the scenarios throughout the period but involves a change en route as economic performance or social values change with time. Part V examines the significance of the scenarios for leisure in greater depth. A distinction is made between enforced leisure (i.e. unemployment) or increased leisure through changed social attitudes (e.g. work sharing). The division between these and the relationship with economic performance is highlighted in forecasts of the different types of leisure activity which would ensue under different circumstances. This is a report which should be read by all concerned with long-range planning for business decisions and might be regarded as essential reading for those directly concerned with the leisure industry. As with all future studies of this type there can be no firm prediction of what the future will hold, a point the authors are careful to stress. The value of the report is that it does provide a logical framework for analysis. Furthermore, it supports the scenarios with quantified data. If the reader disagrees with thejudgments of the authors he has a basis for feeding his own views into the analysis and evaluating their effect.
No report of this type can ever be wholly comprehensive. In the reviewer’s view the effect of new technology upon productivity has been glossed over. A number of graphs show the relationship between unemployment on the one hand and the difference between economic growth and productivity on the other. For example, in one scenario with an assumed 3 per cent output growth, unemployment can vary between 2 million at a 3 per cent productivity growth and 10 million if productivity growth were to rise to 5 per cent. The report is valuable in highlighting this problem but lacks the detailed discussion devoted to other economic variables. No doubt other readers would have different detailed criticisms. These should not, however, be regarded as a major criticism of a work with such a wide-ranging remit. Others who should give this report careful consideration are those concerned with the formation of social, economic and political policy. For it is they who, by assessing the consequences of the various scenarios, can help to steer society towards a more desirable future.
BRIANC. TWISS, Head of the Bradford and Policy Centre
Alternatives,
University
Group for Forecasting of Bradford management (971)
Marketing Research: Analysis and Measurement, P. M. Chisnall, McGraw-Hill, Maidenhead (1981) 391 pp. AI2.95 (hardback) and &SO (softback). A very useful book for the planner. For the reader who requires a modern reference text with a strong comprehensive structure this is the book to buy. The second edition of this text provides a systematic introduction to the principles and practises of market research. It assumes no knowledge and carefully takes the reader through the main areas of market research. It is essentially practical but well supported by a sound underlying theoretical structure. The book has two main parts. The first part comprises 10 well-written chapters on the techniques and analytical basis of market research. Readers are introduced to the history of market research, samples and sampling, and the main methodology of market research. Statistical decision theory has its own chapter and this provides a useful insight to the theoretical basis to support market research methodology. To chapters on Questionnaires, complete this first part, Qualitative Research, Interviewing and Continuous Marketing Research form a comprehensive insight on data collection methodology.
Book Reviews Whereas the first part of the book has the theme methodology, the second part gravitates towards areas of specific application. Seven chapters on Test Marketing, Advertising Research, Industrial Market Research, Overseas Market Research and Market Research in Service Industries provide the reader with a sound introduction on getting the most out of market research. To complete the book the author provides a short insight into the purchasing of market research services. As a study book for business graduates and post-graduates the book is first class. As a reference book for the occasional use by managers it has many virtues due to its comprehensive coverage. Bearing in mind that the book was written for these two segments then the book is a very useful contribution. Although not essential reading, a manager’s bookshelf without a copy can only be described as deficient. JAMES NOON, Assistant Director, Henley Management Development & Advisory Service and Senior Tutor in Marketing, Henley-The Management College (884)
Feedback from Tomorrow, A. J. DAKIN, Pion London (1979), 489 pp. A15.95 (hardback).
and Methuen,
This is an outstanding work which since its publication in 1979 appears to have been ignored by the reviewers. In fact I have failed to trace any published mention of this work and discovered it when searching in a bookshop for information for material for a report.on future trends. The author identifies future. These are: 1. 2. 3. 4.
four key factors
which
will shape our
Information Technology. The Environment. Space Technology. The Mass Media.
He sees the first three being merged into a viable plan for our future. This will be due to space technology developing from information technology and feeding back information by satellites. This will help us to establish an understanding of how the ecosystem works. At present the ecology movement mistrust the IT revolution. The author holds qualifications in and has worked in the areas ofarchitecture, urban and regional planning and social studies. The science of meaning is explored in relation to information technology, and communications are examined. Finally, a series of problems (or knots as the author calls them) are identified and suggested solutions are given. The main problem is seen to be the mass media which in most cases is negative and is a barrier to understainding. A diagram showing the relationship between these knots concludes the work. This alone is vital for the planner as a guide to the way forward. This work should be widely read by architects, urban and regional planners, corporate planners, engineers and technologists and social workers. But above all by the politicians. It is well written, and unlike many works in this area, easy to read and the enquiring layman would find it of interest if he knew it existed. Therefore the future professionals should read it and make the content known to the public. We badly need good guidelines for the future. This is one of the best I have read.
The only gap is that there is no discussion and job creation. B. C. BURROWS, Economic Development Corporation
Research,
133
on unemployment
Milton
Keynes (984)
Business Fluctuations: Forecasting Techniques and Applications, D. G. BAILS and L. C. PEPPERS, Prentice-Hall International, Hemel Hempstead (1982), 481 pp. Q8.70 (hardback). Business Fluctuations is an interesting book. It consists of six parts. Part I deals with Business Cycles. Part II provides an overview of the time series decomposition approach. Part III describes simple regression, while Part IV expands the description to multiple regression. Part V discusses movingaverage and exponential smoothing models. Finally, Part VI is concerned with the effectiveness of forecasting and how forecasts can be better communicated to management. Business Fluctuations is well-written, it includes many exercises and several realistic descriptions of forecasting situations. In addition, there are several data sets to be used by students who would like to practice with the forecasting methods described in the book. This reviewer believes that the biggest contribution of the Business Fluctuations is its attempt to combine the economic (macro) and the time series (micro) approaches. This reviewer, however, disagrees with the authors that their book ‘is pragmatic in nature’, or’that it is unique in what it is doing. Granger and Newbold (1977), Makridakis and Wheelwright (1978), Wheelwright and Makridakis (3rd Ed.), 1980 and Cleary and Levenbach (1982) cover similar material as those of Business Fluctuations and are not ‘advanced treatises in econometrics and time-series modeling, studies in macroeconomic theory, or a smorgasbord of historical summaries and theories devoid of statistical interpretation’ which according to the authors are the only type of forecasting books that now exist. By far the most interesting part of the book is Part I. It provides an excellent summary of business cycles and superb description of the 1974-75 recession. It gives a detailed account of the forecasts made before, during and after the recession and compares these forecasts with actual values. This is done by comparing the forecasts made in the beginning of 1974, and by examining forecasts of a quarterly and monthly interval. To a certain extent, the book overemphasizes the importance of business cycles on forecasting. Business fluctuations influence medium term planning and mainly budget forecasts. To suggest, as the authors do, that this is the only and most critical aspect of forecasting, is wrong. In final analysis, predicting cyclical fluctuations is not but one of the many facets of forecasting. The biggest problem with the book is that no solutions are offered as to what can be done once it has been accepted that business fluctuations cannot be predicted. The authors’ suggestion that there is, somehow, a ‘pragmatic empirical approach’ which they describe in Parts II-V is not accurate. No such approach is given. Rather, Parts II-V. are a traditional expose of decomposition, regression and exponential smoothing methods which offer little new. Furthermore, these methods cannot help the practical forecaster in predicting business cycles better. In the opinion of this reviewer, a pragmatic and practical approach to the