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Methods improving the availability of emergency-rescue services for emergency response to transport accidents
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Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
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www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018)
Methods improving the availability of emergency emergency-rescue rescue services Methods improving the availability of emergency emergency-rescue rescue services for emergency response to transport accidents for emergency response to transport accidents Aleksandr Matveev*, Aleksandr Maksimov Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev Aleksandr Matveev*, Aleksandr Maksimov Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev
Saint Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, 149 Mos Moskovsky Prosp., Saint Petersburg, 196105, Russia Saint Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, 149 Mos Moskovsky Prosp., Saint Petersburg, 196105, Russia
Abstract Abstract The paper addresses a dependency pendency of the efficiency of emergency response to transport accidents and other transport event on the part of emergency-rescue services on the efficiency technical state and availability of to emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehicles. A method resolve The paper addressesrescue a dependency pendency of the of emergency response transport accidents and other transporttoevent on the problem of assessing thee services efficiency the and provision and maintenance ofrescue emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehiclestoisresolve provided. part of emergency-rescue rescue onofthesolutions technicalonstate availability of emergency emergency-rescue vehicles. A method the Results resolution are aimed at selecting an optimal option for the provision and maintenance of emergency emergency-rescue rescue problemofofproblem assessing thee efficiency of solutions on the provision and maintenance of emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehicles is provided. vehiclesof (procurement of new vehicles, ehicles, of the existing and option developed through assessment based rescue on the Results problem resolution are aimedrepair at selecting an optimal for vehicles) the provision and integrated maintenance of emergency emergency-rescue development of formalized criteria suchrepair as theoflevel of operability and availability ofthrough emergency emergency-rescue rescueassessment vehicles forbased emergency vehicles (procurement of new vehicles, ehicles, the existing and developed vehicles) integrated on the response to accidents. development of formalized criteria such as the level of operability and availability of emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehicles for emergency response to accidents. ©2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2018 The Authors. by Elsevier B.V. ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) This is an open accessPublished article under the CC BY-NC-ND ©2018 Theopen Authors. by Elsevier B.V. This is an accessPublished article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and This is an open access article underof BY-NC-ND ND licenseof (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility ofthe theCC scientific committee the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) 2018). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018). the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) 2018). Keywords:transport transport accidents and emergency situations; emergency emergency-rescue services; emergency response; availability; lability; operability of vehicles; provision and maintenance. Keywords:transport transport accidents and emergency situations; emergency emergency-rescue services; emergency response; availability; lability; operability of vehicles; provision and maintenance.
1. Introduction 1. Introduction The transport industry is becoming increasingly important in the social and economic development of the state , 2000; andThe regions(Dereli and Erdogan, 2017;Prideaux, Knaapin and Oosterhaven, 2017). development In spite of the transport industry is becoming increasingly important the social and economic of transport the state infrastructure development, the vehicle fleet improvement andand development, as 2017). well asInthe implementation of , 2000; Knaap and regions(Dereli and Erdogan, 2017;Prideaux, Oosterhaven, spite of the transport infrastructure development, the vehicle fleet improvement and development, as well as the implementation of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-911-944-11-40; fax: +0-000-000 000-0000 . * E-mail:[email protected] Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-911-944-11-40; fax: +0-000-000 000-0000 .
E-mail:[email protected] 2352-1465© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer-review under This is an open access under the CC by BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by 2352-1465© 2018 Thearticle Authors. Published Elsevier B.V. responsibility the scientific committee the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Mana Management https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer-review under in This is an openofaccess article under the CCof BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018). responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Mana Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018).
2352-1465 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018). 10.1016/j.trpro.2018.12.137
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Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
numerous measures aimed at transportation safety assurance, many road accidents, emergency situations, and crashes leading to numerous human losses, significant physical and environmental damage, occurred in recent years(Fountas et al., 2018;Najaf et al., 2017). According to an analysis performed, the number of road accidents and emergency situations in transport in the territory of the Russian Federation is virtually at the same level as the most common type of accidents (fires (Figure 1)), and as for the number of people killed and injured, they take the lead.
Fig. 1. Distribution of the number of fire responses and accidents in transport from 2012 to 2016.
Fig. 2. Distribution of the number of people killed in fire and accidents in transport from 2012 and 2016.
In case of emergency situations and other accidents, managerial bodies of the Russian Unified Emergency Rescue Service (RUERS) at all levels shall quickly and appropriately respond to developing circumstances and make decisions on the allocation of emergency-rescue manpower and equipment for immediate provision of aid to the injured(Martinez et al., 2010). Promptness in response is the most important factor in a set of measures aimed at emergency localization, arrangement of conditions for its timely elimination and life rescue(Sánchez-Mangas et al.,2010). Promptness in response implies a capability of the corresponding managerial bodies, manpower and equipment involved in emergency elimination to commence performing the assigned tasks as soon as practicable (Budakov et al., 2013). For example, in 2016, there were 118.2 thousand responses to accidents and emergency situations in transport in
Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
509 3
the Russian Federation. As a result of those accidents and emergency situations, 11,347 people were killed, 139,575 people were injured, 53,611 people were rescued, and the physical damage amounted approximately to 9.8 bln RUB. 116 of all those accidents were classified as emergency situations. Accidents related to the transportation of hazardous cargo, or damage to more than 10 vehicles, and accidents involving more than 5 people killed or 10 people injured are classified as emergency situations in transport (EMERCOM of Russia, 2004). According to an analysis of road accidents occurred in the territory of Saint Petersburg in 2017, promptness of emergency-rescue services' response directly affects the number of fatalities (Table 1). Table 1. Distribution of damage and the number of fatalities in road accidents depending on the time of arrival of emergency-rescue vehicles (in the territory of Saint Petersburg). up to 3 minutes
Arrival time
up to 6 minutes
up to 9 minutes
up to 12 minutes
up to 15 minutes
up to 18 minutes
up to 21 minutes
more than 21 minutes
Number of road accidents
130
119
151
289
126
92
81
30
Number of fatalities, people
10
10
13
26
11
9
8
5
Number of fatalities per one accident
0.077
0.084
0.086
0.09
0.087
0.098
0.099
0.17
Annual share of damage (of the total damage), %
10.8%
13.3%
16.2%
27.4%
11.6%
9.8%
7.6%
3.3%
Preliminary classification of emergency situations by hazard level implies timely determination of manpower and vehicles (Ludik et al., 2011), physical and other resources required for their elimination. This allows achieving the set goals related to emergency response. Different types of emergency situations require different types of manpower and vehicles, and some of the situations require the most intense logistical support. Emergency response (including response to accidents in transport), regardless the management level, is mainly defined by maintaining the required availability and operability of the corresponding emergency-rescue vehicles designed for the elimination of emergency situations. According to an analysis of the technical state of emergency-rescue vehicles in Saint Petersburg (Table 2), up to 66% of vehicles deployed by the EMERCOM of Russia reached the end of their service life and require replacement. Table 2. The state of the fleet of emergency-rescue vehicles in Saint Petersburg. Available,units
Having remaining lifetime
Reaching the end of their service life
Vehicles
By years of manufacture
units
%
units
%
<5 years
from 5 to 10 years
from 10 to 15 years
> 15
Primary
203
70
34
133
66
39
31
68
65
Special
106
37
35
69
65
17
20
30
39
Auxiliary
50
28
56
22
44
13
15
12
10
It is important to improve the reliability of vehicles used by the EMERCOM or in any other sector. According to performance tests of fire-fighting vehicles requiring overhaul, the main cause of failures is early wear of friction surfaces. In some regions of Russia, wear of emergency-rescue vehicles reaches 70% (Grechushkin, 2010). Keeping the existing fire-fighting vehicles in good working condition, their repair and maintenance require significant expenses. Thus, the efficiency of emergency-rescue services regarding the elimination of emergency situations and other accidents in transport, rescue of people and valuables directly depends on the technical state and availability of emergency-rescue vehicles.
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Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
2. Materials and methods Currently, under conditions of economic instability, issues of the optimization of financial and physical resources, aimed at the resolution of safety problems with maximum efficiency from using the entire resource potential of emergency-rescue services, are especially acute (Maksimov and Matveev, 2015). In order to increase the remaining lifetime of vehicles, in the nearest time it is necessary to renew fleets of emergency-rescue vehicles, introduce new, high-efficient vehicles and equipment, as well as develop a scientific and methodological apparatus to make optimal administrative decisions (Vodnev et al., 2016). To improve the availability of emergency-rescue manpower and vehicles for emergency response, programs of re-equipment with modern vehicles are implemented. Completeness and quality of program implementation directly affect the availability of manpower and vehicles for prevention and elimination of emergency situations. The following issues are resolved at the stage of re-equipment program substantiation: development of a unified system for initial data, evaluation of the technical state of the fleet, generation of numerous possible options and selection of the most rational option to serve as the basis in decision-making. Resolution of those issues requires application of a scientific approach using modelling methods. This makes it necessary to resolve a scientific issue involving the development of methodological support for the evaluation of the efficiency of managerial decisions on the provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles. Results of issue resolution are aimed at selecting an optimal option for the provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles (procurement of new vehicles, repair of the existing and developed vehicles) through integrated assessment based on the development of an hierarchical structure of criteria. The idea of the method is that all criteria are combined into a particular hierarchical structure. At each level of the structure, aggregate assessment of criteria describing provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles will be carried out: the availability of vehicles, their operability and keeping with modern requirements. A comprehensive approach to the issue of optimal distribution of limited physical and financial resources to achieve provision and maintenance goals of emergency-rescue services during the scheduled period requires the following: formalization of quantitative indicators representing provision and maintenance goals of emergency-rescue services; formalization of a relation between indicators of the emergency-rescue services' fleet development, indicators of the provision and maintenance system efficiency and resources used; formalization of criteria for goal achievement by the provision and maintenance system of emergency-rescue services within conditions of limited physical and financial resources. 3. Study background Several authors (Vodnev et al., 2018; Matveev, 2017) developed a mathematical model for the evaluation of provision and maintenance processes in subdivisions of the EMERCOM of Russia. The model allows for the formalization and numerical determination of coefficients of the operability and availability of emergency-rescue vehicles (ERV) for goal achievement. A model of economic costs was developed. This model allows analyzing the influence of the allocated financial resources (according to programs of provision and maintenance of emergencyrescue vehicles) on indicators of the availability and operability of ERV. A structural scheme for the optimization of provision and maintenance processes in emergency-rescue services is suggested to improve the ERV availability for the elimination of accidents and emergency situations. The scheme is given in Figure 3.
Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513
5 511
Fig. 3. A structural scheme for the optimization of provision and maintenance processes in emergency-rescue services to improve the ERV availability for the elimination of accidents and emergency situations.
At the initial stage, an analysis of the number and types of emergency-rescue vehicles and their state (age, operability, availability), an analysis of statistical data on the dynamics of failures and recoveries are carried out. Generation of initial data to model provision and maintenance processes in emergency-rescue services implies a quantitative forecast of emergency and accident risks to determine the dynamics of responses, as well as an analysis of temporary characteristics required for the elimination of all accidents. The developed model of costs allows developing provision and maintenance programs including the number and types of necessary activities (procurement of new vehicles; current, medium repair, overhaul; disposal) based on the volume of allocated financial resources WT for the scheduled period T. A system of differential equations was formed based on the method application of average values dynamics (Feinberg and Shwartz, 2002; Keeling and Ross, 2008; Gilks et al., 1995). Based on initial data and options for provision and maintenance programs, the system allowed forecasting dynamics of average values for ERV states (1 — operable and in the duty mode; 2 — operable and used in response to accidents or emergency situations; 3 — non-operable, current repair, 4 — non-operable, medium repair, 4 — non-operable, overhaul, 4 — non-operable, decommissioning or disposal). The obtained average values of ERV states allow defining ERV operability coefficients Koper(t) and coefficients of ERV availability for the elimination of emergency situations Kc.a.(t). 4. Research and calculations There are two options of task setting for the optimization of the provision and maintenance program in emergency-rescue services depending on a particular optimized indicator. Task 1. It is required to develop such option of the provision and maintenance program u ϵ U (where U is a multitude of all program options) for the program period T, that would minimize total expenses Wu(t) for all types of emergencyrescue vehicles.
W u T min
(1)
at limitations for emergency-rescue vehicles' availability and operability indicators during the entire specified period (t ϵ T):
K c.a . (t ) K creq .a.
(2)
Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
512 6
req Koper (t ) K oper req
where K c . a . ,
(3)
req K oper are required minimum values of emergency-rescue vehicles' availability and operability
coefficients, respectively. Task 2. It is required to develop such option of the provision and maintenance program u ϵ U (where U is a multitude of all program options) for the program period T, that would maximize the average value of emergency-rescue vehicles' availability indicator. u
K c.a. (T ) max
(4)
at limitations for emergency-rescue vehicles' operability indicators during the entire program period (t ϵ T) and volume of financial resources allocated for total expenses by all types of emergency-rescue vehicles. req Koper (t ) K oper
(5)
W u T WT
(6)
5. Discussion and results A general algorithm for the improvement of emergency-rescue vehicles availability for the elimination of emergency situations in transport by the optimization of ERV provision and maintenance can be represented by a sequence of the following stages: req
1. Development of criteria for optimality of emergency-rescue vehicles' provision and maintenance ( K oper — a req
required level of ERV operability coefficient, K c . a . — a required level of ERV availability coefficient).
2. Formation of a multitude of possible alternative options for provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles considering limitations of allocated resources. 3. Evaluation of options by formalized efficiency criteria (Kc.a., Koper). 4. Selection of an optimal option. 5. Development, analysis and approval of a plan of actions related to provision and maintenance in emergencyrescue services. References Budakov, V., Kalchenko, D., Koroleva, T., 2013. Concerning the efficiency of emergency response. Safety and emergencies problems 6, 130– 135. Dereli, M.A., Erdogan, S., 2017.A new model for determining the traffic accident black spots using GIS-aided spatial statistical methods. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 103, 106–117. EMERCOM of Russia, 2004. Order of EMERCOM of Russia, July 8, 2004, No. 329. On the approval of criteria for information on emergency situations. http://base.garant.ru/12151827/29df508708309afda99e96860a4bcfcd/ (accessed 22 December 2017). Feinberg, E.A., Shwartz, A., 2002. Handbook of Markov decision processes: methods and applications. Kluwer, Boston, MA, 209–230. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/978-1-4615-0805-2. Fountas, G., Sarwar, M. T., Anastasopoulos, P. C., Blatt, A., Majka, K., 2018. Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: a dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach. Accident Analysis & Prevention 113, 330–340. Gilks, W.R., Richardson, S., Spiegelhalter, D.J. (eds.), 1995. Introducing Markov chain Monte Carlo. Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman & Hall, London, pp. 1–19.
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Grechushkin, N., 2010. Priorities of equipping the forces of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia. Fire Safety Catalogue, 16–18. Keeling, M. J., Ross, J. V., 2008. On methods for studying stochastic disease dynamics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 5, 171–181. https://doi.org/ 10.1098/rsif.2007.1106. Knaap, T., Oosterhaven, J.,2017. Spatial economic impacts of transport infrastructure investments. In Transport Projects, Programmes and Policies, pp. 87–105. Ludik, T., Racek, J., Pekarova, L., 2011. New process management for emergency management: case study about an accident of a vehicle transporting dangerous goods. In: Burczynski, T., Kolodziej, J., Byrski, A., Carvalho, M. (eds.), ECMS (European Council for Modeling and Simulation) 2011 Proceedings, pp. 323–329. https://doi.org/10.7148/2011-0323-0329. Maksimov, A., Matveev, A., 2015. Resource potential and its use in the system of the State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia. Vestnik SanktPeterburgskogo Universiteta GPS MCHS Rossii 1, 62 –68. Martinez, F.J., Toh, C.K., Cano, J.C., Calafate, C.T., Manzoni, P., 2010. Emergency services in future intelligent transportation systems based on vehicular communication networks. IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Magazine 2(2), 6–20. Matveev, A., 2017. Strategic planning for vehicles and equipment of EMERCOM of Russia in the Arctic zone. National Security and Strategic Planning 4(20), 32–42. Najaf, P., Isaai, M.T., Lavasani, M., Thill, J.C., 2017. Evaluating traffic safety policies for developing countries based on equity considerations. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security 9(sup1), 178–203. Prideaux, B., 2000.The role of the transport system in destination development. Tourism management 21(1), 53–63. Sánchez-Mangas, R., García-Ferrrer, A., De Juan, A., Arroyo, A.M., 2010. The probability of death in road traffic accidents. How important is a quick medical response? Accident Analysis & Prevention 42(4), 1048–1056. Vodnev, S., Artamonov, V., Matveev, V., 2016. Analysis of the management system for provision and maintenance of divisions of EMERCOM of Russia. Problems of Technosphere Risk Management 4(40), 125–130. Vodnev, S., Maksimov, A., Matveev, A., 2018. Model for comprehensive assessment of emergency-rescue vehicles’ provision and maintenance in divisions of EMERCOM of Russia. Problems of Technosphere Risk Management 2(46), 89–95.
ScienceDirect ScienceDirect
Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
ScienceDirect
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018)
Methods improving the availability of emergency emergency-rescue rescue services Methods improving the availability of emergency emergency-rescue rescue services for emergency response to transport accidents for emergency response to transport accidents Aleksandr Matveev*, Aleksandr Maksimov Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev Aleksandr Matveev*, Aleksandr Maksimov Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev
Saint Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, 149 Mos Moskovsky Prosp., Saint Petersburg, 196105, Russia Saint Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, 149 Mos Moskovsky Prosp., Saint Petersburg, 196105, Russia
Abstract Abstract The paper addresses a dependency pendency of the efficiency of emergency response to transport accidents and other transport event on the part of emergency-rescue services on the efficiency technical state and availability of to emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehicles. A method resolve The paper addressesrescue a dependency pendency of the of emergency response transport accidents and other transporttoevent on the problem of assessing thee services efficiency the and provision and maintenance ofrescue emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehiclestoisresolve provided. part of emergency-rescue rescue onofthesolutions technicalonstate availability of emergency emergency-rescue vehicles. A method the Results resolution are aimed at selecting an optimal option for the provision and maintenance of emergency emergency-rescue rescue problemofofproblem assessing thee efficiency of solutions on the provision and maintenance of emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehicles is provided. vehiclesof (procurement of new vehicles, ehicles, of the existing and option developed through assessment based rescue on the Results problem resolution are aimedrepair at selecting an optimal for vehicles) the provision and integrated maintenance of emergency emergency-rescue development of formalized criteria suchrepair as theoflevel of operability and availability ofthrough emergency emergency-rescue rescueassessment vehicles forbased emergency vehicles (procurement of new vehicles, ehicles, the existing and developed vehicles) integrated on the response to accidents. development of formalized criteria such as the level of operability and availability of emergency emergency-rescue rescue vehicles for emergency response to accidents. ©2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. © 2018 The Authors. by Elsevier B.V. ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) This is an open accessPublished article under the CC BY-NC-ND ©2018 Theopen Authors. by Elsevier B.V. This is an accessPublished article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and This is an open access article underof BY-NC-ND ND licenseof (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility ofthe theCC scientific committee the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) 2018). Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018). the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) 2018). Keywords:transport transport accidents and emergency situations; emergency emergency-rescue services; emergency response; availability; lability; operability of vehicles; provision and maintenance. Keywords:transport transport accidents and emergency situations; emergency emergency-rescue services; emergency response; availability; lability; operability of vehicles; provision and maintenance.
1. Introduction 1. Introduction The transport industry is becoming increasingly important in the social and economic development of the state , 2000; andThe regions(Dereli and Erdogan, 2017;Prideaux, Knaapin and Oosterhaven, 2017). development In spite of the transport industry is becoming increasingly important the social and economic of transport the state infrastructure development, the vehicle fleet improvement andand development, as 2017). well asInthe implementation of , 2000; Knaap and regions(Dereli and Erdogan, 2017;Prideaux, Oosterhaven, spite of the transport infrastructure development, the vehicle fleet improvement and development, as well as the implementation of
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-911-944-11-40; fax: +0-000-000 000-0000 . * E-mail:[email protected] Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-911-944-11-40; fax: +0-000-000 000-0000 .
E-mail:[email protected] 2352-1465© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer-review under This is an open access under the CC by BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by 2352-1465© 2018 Thearticle Authors. Published Elsevier B.V. responsibility the scientific committee the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Mana Management https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer-review under in This is an openofaccess article under the CCof BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018). responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Mana Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018).
2352-1465 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018). 10.1016/j.trpro.2018.12.137
508 2
Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
numerous measures aimed at transportation safety assurance, many road accidents, emergency situations, and crashes leading to numerous human losses, significant physical and environmental damage, occurred in recent years(Fountas et al., 2018;Najaf et al., 2017). According to an analysis performed, the number of road accidents and emergency situations in transport in the territory of the Russian Federation is virtually at the same level as the most common type of accidents (fires (Figure 1)), and as for the number of people killed and injured, they take the lead.
Fig. 1. Distribution of the number of fire responses and accidents in transport from 2012 to 2016.
Fig. 2. Distribution of the number of people killed in fire and accidents in transport from 2012 and 2016.
In case of emergency situations and other accidents, managerial bodies of the Russian Unified Emergency Rescue Service (RUERS) at all levels shall quickly and appropriately respond to developing circumstances and make decisions on the allocation of emergency-rescue manpower and equipment for immediate provision of aid to the injured(Martinez et al., 2010). Promptness in response is the most important factor in a set of measures aimed at emergency localization, arrangement of conditions for its timely elimination and life rescue(Sánchez-Mangas et al.,2010). Promptness in response implies a capability of the corresponding managerial bodies, manpower and equipment involved in emergency elimination to commence performing the assigned tasks as soon as practicable (Budakov et al., 2013). For example, in 2016, there were 118.2 thousand responses to accidents and emergency situations in transport in
Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
509 3
the Russian Federation. As a result of those accidents and emergency situations, 11,347 people were killed, 139,575 people were injured, 53,611 people were rescued, and the physical damage amounted approximately to 9.8 bln RUB. 116 of all those accidents were classified as emergency situations. Accidents related to the transportation of hazardous cargo, or damage to more than 10 vehicles, and accidents involving more than 5 people killed or 10 people injured are classified as emergency situations in transport (EMERCOM of Russia, 2004). According to an analysis of road accidents occurred in the territory of Saint Petersburg in 2017, promptness of emergency-rescue services' response directly affects the number of fatalities (Table 1). Table 1. Distribution of damage and the number of fatalities in road accidents depending on the time of arrival of emergency-rescue vehicles (in the territory of Saint Petersburg). up to 3 minutes
Arrival time
up to 6 minutes
up to 9 minutes
up to 12 minutes
up to 15 minutes
up to 18 minutes
up to 21 minutes
more than 21 minutes
Number of road accidents
130
119
151
289
126
92
81
30
Number of fatalities, people
10
10
13
26
11
9
8
5
Number of fatalities per one accident
0.077
0.084
0.086
0.09
0.087
0.098
0.099
0.17
Annual share of damage (of the total damage), %
10.8%
13.3%
16.2%
27.4%
11.6%
9.8%
7.6%
3.3%
Preliminary classification of emergency situations by hazard level implies timely determination of manpower and vehicles (Ludik et al., 2011), physical and other resources required for their elimination. This allows achieving the set goals related to emergency response. Different types of emergency situations require different types of manpower and vehicles, and some of the situations require the most intense logistical support. Emergency response (including response to accidents in transport), regardless the management level, is mainly defined by maintaining the required availability and operability of the corresponding emergency-rescue vehicles designed for the elimination of emergency situations. According to an analysis of the technical state of emergency-rescue vehicles in Saint Petersburg (Table 2), up to 66% of vehicles deployed by the EMERCOM of Russia reached the end of their service life and require replacement. Table 2. The state of the fleet of emergency-rescue vehicles in Saint Petersburg. Available,units
Having remaining lifetime
Reaching the end of their service life
Vehicles
By years of manufacture
units
%
units
%
<5 years
from 5 to 10 years
from 10 to 15 years
> 15
Primary
203
70
34
133
66
39
31
68
65
Special
106
37
35
69
65
17
20
30
39
Auxiliary
50
28
56
22
44
13
15
12
10
It is important to improve the reliability of vehicles used by the EMERCOM or in any other sector. According to performance tests of fire-fighting vehicles requiring overhaul, the main cause of failures is early wear of friction surfaces. In some regions of Russia, wear of emergency-rescue vehicles reaches 70% (Grechushkin, 2010). Keeping the existing fire-fighting vehicles in good working condition, their repair and maintenance require significant expenses. Thus, the efficiency of emergency-rescue services regarding the elimination of emergency situations and other accidents in transport, rescue of people and valuables directly depends on the technical state and availability of emergency-rescue vehicles.
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2. Materials and methods Currently, under conditions of economic instability, issues of the optimization of financial and physical resources, aimed at the resolution of safety problems with maximum efficiency from using the entire resource potential of emergency-rescue services, are especially acute (Maksimov and Matveev, 2015). In order to increase the remaining lifetime of vehicles, in the nearest time it is necessary to renew fleets of emergency-rescue vehicles, introduce new, high-efficient vehicles and equipment, as well as develop a scientific and methodological apparatus to make optimal administrative decisions (Vodnev et al., 2016). To improve the availability of emergency-rescue manpower and vehicles for emergency response, programs of re-equipment with modern vehicles are implemented. Completeness and quality of program implementation directly affect the availability of manpower and vehicles for prevention and elimination of emergency situations. The following issues are resolved at the stage of re-equipment program substantiation: development of a unified system for initial data, evaluation of the technical state of the fleet, generation of numerous possible options and selection of the most rational option to serve as the basis in decision-making. Resolution of those issues requires application of a scientific approach using modelling methods. This makes it necessary to resolve a scientific issue involving the development of methodological support for the evaluation of the efficiency of managerial decisions on the provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles. Results of issue resolution are aimed at selecting an optimal option for the provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles (procurement of new vehicles, repair of the existing and developed vehicles) through integrated assessment based on the development of an hierarchical structure of criteria. The idea of the method is that all criteria are combined into a particular hierarchical structure. At each level of the structure, aggregate assessment of criteria describing provision and maintenance of emergency-rescue vehicles will be carried out: the availability of vehicles, their operability and keeping with modern requirements. A comprehensive approach to the issue of optimal distribution of limited physical and financial resources to achieve provision and maintenance goals of emergency-rescue services during the scheduled period requires the following: formalization of quantitative indicators representing provision and maintenance goals of emergency-rescue services; formalization of a relation between indicators of the emergency-rescue services' fleet development, indicators of the provision and maintenance system efficiency and resources used; formalization of criteria for goal achievement by the provision and maintenance system of emergency-rescue services within conditions of limited physical and financial resources. 3. Study background Several authors (Vodnev et al., 2018; Matveev, 2017) developed a mathematical model for the evaluation of provision and maintenance processes in subdivisions of the EMERCOM of Russia. The model allows for the formalization and numerical determination of coefficients of the operability and availability of emergency-rescue vehicles (ERV) for goal achievement. A model of economic costs was developed. This model allows analyzing the influence of the allocated financial resources (according to programs of provision and maintenance of emergencyrescue vehicles) on indicators of the availability and operability of ERV. A structural scheme for the optimization of provision and maintenance processes in emergency-rescue services is suggested to improve the ERV availability for the elimination of accidents and emergency situations. The scheme is given in Figure 3.
Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513
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Fig. 3. A structural scheme for the optimization of provision and maintenance processes in emergency-rescue services to improve the ERV availability for the elimination of accidents and emergency situations.
At the initial stage, an analysis of the number and types of emergency-rescue vehicles and their state (age, operability, availability), an analysis of statistical data on the dynamics of failures and recoveries are carried out. Generation of initial data to model provision and maintenance processes in emergency-rescue services implies a quantitative forecast of emergency and accident risks to determine the dynamics of responses, as well as an analysis of temporary characteristics required for the elimination of all accidents. The developed model of costs allows developing provision and maintenance programs including the number and types of necessary activities (procurement of new vehicles; current, medium repair, overhaul; disposal) based on the volume of allocated financial resources WT for the scheduled period T. A system of differential equations was formed based on the method application of average values dynamics (Feinberg and Shwartz, 2002; Keeling and Ross, 2008; Gilks et al., 1995). Based on initial data and options for provision and maintenance programs, the system allowed forecasting dynamics of average values for ERV states (1 — operable and in the duty mode; 2 — operable and used in response to accidents or emergency situations; 3 — non-operable, current repair, 4 — non-operable, medium repair, 4 — non-operable, overhaul, 4 — non-operable, decommissioning or disposal). The obtained average values of ERV states allow defining ERV operability coefficients Koper(t) and coefficients of ERV availability for the elimination of emergency situations Kc.a.(t). 4. Research and calculations There are two options of task setting for the optimization of the provision and maintenance program in emergency-rescue services depending on a particular optimized indicator. Task 1. It is required to develop such option of the provision and maintenance program u ϵ U (where U is a multitude of all program options) for the program period T, that would minimize total expenses Wu(t) for all types of emergencyrescue vehicles.
W u T min
(1)
at limitations for emergency-rescue vehicles' availability and operability indicators during the entire specified period (t ϵ T):
K c.a . (t ) K creq .a.
(2)
Aleksandr Matveev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 507–513 Aleksandr Matveev, Aleksandr Maksimov, Sergey Vodnev/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000
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req Koper (t ) K oper req
where K c . a . ,
(3)
req K oper are required minimum values of emergency-rescue vehicles' availability and operability
coefficients, respectively. Task 2. It is required to develop such option of the provision and maintenance program u ϵ U (where U is a multitude of all program options) for the program period T, that would maximize the average value of emergency-rescue vehicles' availability indicator. u
K c.a. (T ) max
(4)
at limitations for emergency-rescue vehicles' operability indicators during the entire program period (t ϵ T) and volume of financial resources allocated for total expenses by all types of emergency-rescue vehicles. req Koper (t ) K oper
(5)
W u T WT
(6)
5. Discussion and results A general algorithm for the improvement of emergency-rescue vehicles availability for the elimination of emergency situations in transport by the optimization of ERV provision and maintenance can be represented by a sequence of the following stages: req
1. Development of criteria for optimality of emergency-rescue vehicles' provision and maintenance ( K oper — a req
required level of ERV operability coefficient, K c . a . — a required level of ERV availability coefficient).
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