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Methods of long term planning and forecasting
Book Reviews Edited by Harry Jones
Company Manpower Planning in Perspective, edited by J. LAWRENCE, Institute of Personnel Management in conjunction with The Institute of Manpower Studies, London (1975),88 pp. H.00 (softback).
John Lawrence is Director of the Institute of Manpower Studies and Chairman of the working party on manpower planning set up by the Institute of Personnel Management. In co-operation with the Institute of Manpower Studies, the working party organized a conference of high level executives to consider Company Manpower Planning in Perspective. John Lawrence has edited the papers presented at the conference and provided a prologue and an epilogue--these are bound together to produce a small book ideally suited for assimilation by senior executives. The contributors all speak with authority stemming from their experiences and the responsible positions they hold, but none claim to have reduced this subject area to treatment by straight forward techniques and the title of the conference and the book is therefore most apt. Five papers are included starting with a description of the Manpower Services Commission, the role it is intended to perform and how it will inter-relate with and help employers in all spheres. The second paper outlines the importance of Manpower Planning where, when and why it should be applied and that it should occupy a major share of corporate planning considerations. The following two papers describe Manpower Planning as practised in a large commercial organization and a large industrial group and they refer to some of the tools and auoroaches used with narticular reference to EDP. The last paper describes some df the more common problems associated with planning and manpower, giving useful analyses which promote thinking without prejudging outcomes. The epilogue is a useful summary of the salient factors made in the proceeding papers--the editor achieves his objective of ‘putting the perspective into perspective’. I. L. COLLIER P. E. Consulting Group Egham
Methods
(178)
of Long Term Planning and Forecasting,
T. S. KHALHATUROV,Macmillan, f20.00 (hardback).
London
edited by (1976), 461 pp.
In some respects the title of this book is misleading. It actually represents the proceedings of the first conference held by the International Economic Association in Russia. The conference was organized by an international committee of academics and chaired by Professor Khachaturov, who has subsequently edited the book. It was designed to review the methods used mainly in centrally planned economies in Eastern Europe to forecast long term trends and to develop long term plans. The focus is, therefore, strongly oriented to the role of the central economic planner rather than that of the business or corporate planner. Further, the papers are little concerned with the implementation of plans nor with the process of strategic decision making. While many of the papers are descriptive, a significant number are devoted to methodological considerations with an emphasis on quantitative macroeconomics and econometrics. The book is divided into five sections. The first of these deals with some general problems in planning in the U.S.S.R.
96
and in Western economies as seen by two Russian academics. This is followed by a section given over to a more detailed examination of planning methods used in the U.S.S.R., which in turn leads on to a more extensive range of papers de+ cribing planning and forecasting procedures in a number of other Eastern European economies. Part four examines a number of specific approaches to planning in Western economies, although these papers are more concerned with the projection and forecasting of particular economic variables than the process of central macro economic planningper se. The final two papers deal with some elements of the planning process in IBM and a description of the systems used in Sumitomo Chemical of Japan. Accompanying the papers are very full summaries of the subsequent discussions developing from each paper. The conference participants are thus perhaps not necessarily those that many of the readers of this journal would recognize as planners in one sense since in many cases they are principally concerned with macro-economic forecasting. This in itself, however, provides somewhat of an interesting differentiation between planning in the Communist economies and the West. Indeed it is in this area that the western reader may well find the book of greatest interest. While lacking in many respects in the detail one might like, the descriptive papers devoted to the Russian and other Eastern Bloc economies provide a fascinating series of insights into the workings of their planning systems and to a lesser extent their strategic decision making processes. Further, the discussions after a number of the papers where the methodological similarities between East and West are apparent, but where the sociopolitical traditions are sharply different highlight not only variations between the ideologies but reveal the difficulties of overcoming the socio-political differences. For example the real difficulties of the Russian academicians to understand the corporate planning processes in IBM and Sumitomo are fascinating to Western eyes. Overall this is an interesting book for the academic reader, and occasionally offers something for those interested in forecasting methodology. For the corporate planner the book is of less direct value, except in so far as it reveals the planning approaches utilized in a number of the Eastern bloc economies, which, who knows, with the introduction of planning agreements and the like, may be increasingly relevant in the trend to more centrally planned western economies. D. F. CHANNON Manchester Business School
A World of Scarcities:
Critical
(248)
Issues in Public Policy, by
D. NOVICK, Associated Business (1976), 194 pp. E6.95 (hardback).
Programmes,
London
T~XZbook is addressed mainly to American readership. It is divided into two parts. The first is a general overview of the natural resource problem, the second contains essays on seven selected con&odities. The author’s vast experience, noine back into the time of the Office of Emergency Planning, guarintees the authority of his assessment and r&ommendations.
LONG
RANGE
PLANNING
Company Manpower Planning in Perspective, edited by J. LAWRENCE, Institute of Personnel Management in conjunction with The Institute of Manpower Studies, London (1975),88 pp. H.00 (softback).
John Lawrence is Director of the Institute of Manpower Studies and Chairman of the working party on manpower planning set up by the Institute of Personnel Management. In co-operation with the Institute of Manpower Studies, the working party organized a conference of high level executives to consider Company Manpower Planning in Perspective. John Lawrence has edited the papers presented at the conference and provided a prologue and an epilogue--these are bound together to produce a small book ideally suited for assimilation by senior executives. The contributors all speak with authority stemming from their experiences and the responsible positions they hold, but none claim to have reduced this subject area to treatment by straight forward techniques and the title of the conference and the book is therefore most apt. Five papers are included starting with a description of the Manpower Services Commission, the role it is intended to perform and how it will inter-relate with and help employers in all spheres. The second paper outlines the importance of Manpower Planning where, when and why it should be applied and that it should occupy a major share of corporate planning considerations. The following two papers describe Manpower Planning as practised in a large commercial organization and a large industrial group and they refer to some of the tools and auoroaches used with narticular reference to EDP. The last paper describes some df the more common problems associated with planning and manpower, giving useful analyses which promote thinking without prejudging outcomes. The epilogue is a useful summary of the salient factors made in the proceeding papers--the editor achieves his objective of ‘putting the perspective into perspective’. I. L. COLLIER P. E. Consulting Group Egham
Methods
(178)
of Long Term Planning and Forecasting,
T. S. KHALHATUROV,Macmillan, f20.00 (hardback).
London
edited by (1976), 461 pp.
In some respects the title of this book is misleading. It actually represents the proceedings of the first conference held by the International Economic Association in Russia. The conference was organized by an international committee of academics and chaired by Professor Khachaturov, who has subsequently edited the book. It was designed to review the methods used mainly in centrally planned economies in Eastern Europe to forecast long term trends and to develop long term plans. The focus is, therefore, strongly oriented to the role of the central economic planner rather than that of the business or corporate planner. Further, the papers are little concerned with the implementation of plans nor with the process of strategic decision making. While many of the papers are descriptive, a significant number are devoted to methodological considerations with an emphasis on quantitative macroeconomics and econometrics. The book is divided into five sections. The first of these deals with some general problems in planning in the U.S.S.R.
96
and in Western economies as seen by two Russian academics. This is followed by a section given over to a more detailed examination of planning methods used in the U.S.S.R., which in turn leads on to a more extensive range of papers de+ cribing planning and forecasting procedures in a number of other Eastern European economies. Part four examines a number of specific approaches to planning in Western economies, although these papers are more concerned with the projection and forecasting of particular economic variables than the process of central macro economic planningper se. The final two papers deal with some elements of the planning process in IBM and a description of the systems used in Sumitomo Chemical of Japan. Accompanying the papers are very full summaries of the subsequent discussions developing from each paper. The conference participants are thus perhaps not necessarily those that many of the readers of this journal would recognize as planners in one sense since in many cases they are principally concerned with macro-economic forecasting. This in itself, however, provides somewhat of an interesting differentiation between planning in the Communist economies and the West. Indeed it is in this area that the western reader may well find the book of greatest interest. While lacking in many respects in the detail one might like, the descriptive papers devoted to the Russian and other Eastern Bloc economies provide a fascinating series of insights into the workings of their planning systems and to a lesser extent their strategic decision making processes. Further, the discussions after a number of the papers where the methodological similarities between East and West are apparent, but where the sociopolitical traditions are sharply different highlight not only variations between the ideologies but reveal the difficulties of overcoming the socio-political differences. For example the real difficulties of the Russian academicians to understand the corporate planning processes in IBM and Sumitomo are fascinating to Western eyes. Overall this is an interesting book for the academic reader, and occasionally offers something for those interested in forecasting methodology. For the corporate planner the book is of less direct value, except in so far as it reveals the planning approaches utilized in a number of the Eastern bloc economies, which, who knows, with the introduction of planning agreements and the like, may be increasingly relevant in the trend to more centrally planned western economies. D. F. CHANNON Manchester Business School
A World of Scarcities:
Critical
(248)
Issues in Public Policy, by
D. NOVICK, Associated Business (1976), 194 pp. E6.95 (hardback).
Programmes,
London
T~XZbook is addressed mainly to American readership. It is divided into two parts. The first is a general overview of the natural resource problem, the second contains essays on seven selected con&odities. The author’s vast experience, noine back into the time of the Office of Emergency Planning, guarintees the authority of his assessment and r&ommendations.
LONG
RANGE
PLANNING