- Email: [email protected]
Mixed fortunes forecast for commodity plastics markets
Additives for Polymers
November 2004
Contact: Impact Colours, 24 Norris Way, Wellingborough Rd, Rushden, NN10 6BP, UK; tel: +44-1933-350500; fax: +44-1933-313300; URL: www.impactcolours.co.uk
Contact: Toho Tenax, Hongo TS Building, 2-3816 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8404, Japan; tel: +81-3-5842-3700; fax: +81-3-5842-3701; URL: www.tohotenax.com
Toho expands carbon fibre capabilities in Germany, USA
MARKETS
Japan’s Toho Tenax is investing 38 million to establish a new production line for carbon fibre at its wholly owned subsidiary Tenax Fibers GmbH of Wuppertal, Germany. The targeted start-up of the new operation is October 2006. The new line, Tenax’s third, will have annual production capacity of 1500 tons. The company’s existing capacity is 1900 tons per year. Toho Tenax says that the supply/demand balance in the carbon fibre market has been improving since mid-2003, and the market is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of approximately 10%. Demand in Europe from aerospace applications (Airbus) and industrial applications such as wind turbines has expanded to the point that it has exceeded Tenax Fibers’ current production capacity. The company has therefore decided to establish an additional production line in Germany in order to meet demand. In other news, Toho Tenax is to acquire the US PAN-based carbon fibre business of Netherlandsbased fibre manufacturer Acordis. The plant, operated by Acordis subsidiary Fortafil Fibers, is based in Tennessee, and has annual production capacity of 3500 tons of large-tow carbon fibres. Toho says it plans to convert a part of the current large-tow capacity into 700-ton regular-tow capacity and 1400-ton oxidized PAN fibre capacity within a year of the acquisition. Regular tow fibres have a higher mechanical performance and go into aerospace, sports and industrial uses. Large tow fibres are lower cost and generally go into industrial applications. The acquisition will provide Toho with a manufacturing base in North America to expand its US sales. The company has been supplying carbon fibres and related products worldwide from its manufacturing bases in Japan and Germany, but the absence of a manufacturing base in North America has kept its sales share there relatively small. This acquisition is a logical step towards expanding its share. 10
Mixed fortunes forecast for commodity plastics markets The global PVC industry is entering a period of improved demand while for polyolefins growth in demand is expected to cool somewhat over the next five years, according to the latest annual market analyses published by chemical consultancy Chemical Market Associates Inc (CMAI). CMAI’s new market study 2005 World Vinyls Analysis, which covers the global PVC, VCM and EDC markets for the period 1999–2009, concludes that the PVC industry worldwide is emerging from several years of weak profitability, and predicts improved growth in demand for PVC for the next few years. The industry’s economic growth of 2.8% per annum in the 1999–2004 period is forecast to accelerate to 3.6% from 2004 to 2009. The report finds that global demand for PVC recovered in 2004 and forecasts continued growth in demand at a rate of 4.1% per annum up to 2009. In the next five years, China will be the key country for world demand and supply issues, says CMAI. Most of the new PVC capacity being planned for the next few years will be established in China. Demand for global thermoplastics is dominated by polyolefins (PE and PP), which represent more than 60% of all commodity resins consumed on an annual basis. According to CMAI’s recently completed 2005 World Polyolefins Analysis, the global polyolefins industry will see growth in demand moderate from historical levels (in the developed economies) throughout the forecast period, but will still maintain an overall growth rate above that of GDP. Asia represents the fastest growing consumption region for polyolefins during the next few years. The profile for global polyolefins prices has changed somewhat from previous forecasts, CMAI says. A more-sustained period of elevated prices is anticipated between 2005 and 2007;
November 2004
however, the actual height of the peak will be somewhat lower than originally anticipated as the influences of higher energy, a longer period of economic recovery from the down cycle and a more-controlled introduction of excess material from the Middle East work to counterbalance the market. This indicates a baseline change in industry profitability over the course of the next few years, and may alter the timing of re-investment decisions, thereby impacting supply/demand balances both regionally and globally, CMAI says. CMAI has also published its latest analysis of the styrene/polystyrene/EPS markets. These markets are described as “odd” and “interesting” in 2004 because record high benzene prices have at times meant there has been price parity between benzene, styrene and polystyrene. The availability of benzene and the high benzene prices may affect demand growth and trade patterns. However, despite very high prices, which historically have shown a negative impact on demand, in 2004 demand for styrenics remained strong, CMAI says. Trade patterns for styrene will change in the future as new monomer capacity comes on-stream in the Middle East with Northeast Asia (mostly China) as its primary destination. This import volume will in turn provide the raw material for substantial styrene derivative capacity expansions. China’s self-sufficiency in polystyrene will continue to increase and the growth in polystyrene trade will slow. As with PVC and polyolefins, Asia and especially China will be the key to future growth and the styrenics industry is positioning itself to supply China. The market studies cover more than 50 countries and provide history back to 1999 and a five-year forecast to 2009. They include supply/demand forecasts, capacity, profitability, production costs, technology assessments, trade, price forecasts as well as other issues that affect the individual industries. The studies are available in book or CDROM format priced at US$9000 for the vinyls and polyolefins reports and $8000 for PS/EPS. Contact: Erika Soechting, CMAI, 11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 750, Houston, TX 77079, USA; tel: +1-281-531-4660; fax: +1-281-531-9966; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.cmaiglobal.com
Additives for Polymers
EVENTS CALENDAR 2–3 December 2004 [new date] London, UK Plastics Pricing & LME Futures Emap Conferences, 3rd Floor, 151 Rosebery Avenue, London, EC1R 4GB, UK; tel: +4420-7505-8564; fax: +44-20-7505-8566; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.plastics-events.com 7–9 December 2004 Zürich, Switzerland Polyester 2004 Maack Business Services, Moosacherstrasse 14, CH-8804 Zürich, Switzerland; tel: +41-1781-3040; fax: +41-1-781-1569; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.mbspolymer.com 8–10 December 2004 New Orleans, LA, USA Natural Fiber Reinforcements/Wood Plastics 2004 Scott Stephenson, Conference Director, Intertech, 19 Northbrook Drive, Portland, ME 04105, USA; tel: +1-207-781-9608; fax: +1207-781-2150; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.intertechusa.com 10 December 2004 Frankfurt, Germany Natural Fibres Emap Conferences, URL: www.plasticsevents.com (other contact as above) 25–26 January 2004 Brussels, Belgium Flame Retardants for Electrical Applications Emap Conferences, URL: www.plasticsevents.com (other contact as above) 9–11 February 2005 New Orleans, LA, USA Thermoplastic Concentrates 2005 Applied Market Information LLC, Suite #204, 833 North Park Road, Wyomissing, PA 19610, USA; tel: +1-610-478-0800; fax: +1-610-4780900; URL: www.amiplastics.com
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November 2004
Contact: Impact Colours, 24 Norris Way, Wellingborough Rd, Rushden, NN10 6BP, UK; tel: +44-1933-350500; fax: +44-1933-313300; URL: www.impactcolours.co.uk
Contact: Toho Tenax, Hongo TS Building, 2-3816 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8404, Japan; tel: +81-3-5842-3700; fax: +81-3-5842-3701; URL: www.tohotenax.com
Toho expands carbon fibre capabilities in Germany, USA
MARKETS
Japan’s Toho Tenax is investing 38 million to establish a new production line for carbon fibre at its wholly owned subsidiary Tenax Fibers GmbH of Wuppertal, Germany. The targeted start-up of the new operation is October 2006. The new line, Tenax’s third, will have annual production capacity of 1500 tons. The company’s existing capacity is 1900 tons per year. Toho Tenax says that the supply/demand balance in the carbon fibre market has been improving since mid-2003, and the market is expected to continue growing at an annual rate of approximately 10%. Demand in Europe from aerospace applications (Airbus) and industrial applications such as wind turbines has expanded to the point that it has exceeded Tenax Fibers’ current production capacity. The company has therefore decided to establish an additional production line in Germany in order to meet demand. In other news, Toho Tenax is to acquire the US PAN-based carbon fibre business of Netherlandsbased fibre manufacturer Acordis. The plant, operated by Acordis subsidiary Fortafil Fibers, is based in Tennessee, and has annual production capacity of 3500 tons of large-tow carbon fibres. Toho says it plans to convert a part of the current large-tow capacity into 700-ton regular-tow capacity and 1400-ton oxidized PAN fibre capacity within a year of the acquisition. Regular tow fibres have a higher mechanical performance and go into aerospace, sports and industrial uses. Large tow fibres are lower cost and generally go into industrial applications. The acquisition will provide Toho with a manufacturing base in North America to expand its US sales. The company has been supplying carbon fibres and related products worldwide from its manufacturing bases in Japan and Germany, but the absence of a manufacturing base in North America has kept its sales share there relatively small. This acquisition is a logical step towards expanding its share. 10
Mixed fortunes forecast for commodity plastics markets The global PVC industry is entering a period of improved demand while for polyolefins growth in demand is expected to cool somewhat over the next five years, according to the latest annual market analyses published by chemical consultancy Chemical Market Associates Inc (CMAI). CMAI’s new market study 2005 World Vinyls Analysis, which covers the global PVC, VCM and EDC markets for the period 1999–2009, concludes that the PVC industry worldwide is emerging from several years of weak profitability, and predicts improved growth in demand for PVC for the next few years. The industry’s economic growth of 2.8% per annum in the 1999–2004 period is forecast to accelerate to 3.6% from 2004 to 2009. The report finds that global demand for PVC recovered in 2004 and forecasts continued growth in demand at a rate of 4.1% per annum up to 2009. In the next five years, China will be the key country for world demand and supply issues, says CMAI. Most of the new PVC capacity being planned for the next few years will be established in China. Demand for global thermoplastics is dominated by polyolefins (PE and PP), which represent more than 60% of all commodity resins consumed on an annual basis. According to CMAI’s recently completed 2005 World Polyolefins Analysis, the global polyolefins industry will see growth in demand moderate from historical levels (in the developed economies) throughout the forecast period, but will still maintain an overall growth rate above that of GDP. Asia represents the fastest growing consumption region for polyolefins during the next few years. The profile for global polyolefins prices has changed somewhat from previous forecasts, CMAI says. A more-sustained period of elevated prices is anticipated between 2005 and 2007;
November 2004
however, the actual height of the peak will be somewhat lower than originally anticipated as the influences of higher energy, a longer period of economic recovery from the down cycle and a more-controlled introduction of excess material from the Middle East work to counterbalance the market. This indicates a baseline change in industry profitability over the course of the next few years, and may alter the timing of re-investment decisions, thereby impacting supply/demand balances both regionally and globally, CMAI says. CMAI has also published its latest analysis of the styrene/polystyrene/EPS markets. These markets are described as “odd” and “interesting” in 2004 because record high benzene prices have at times meant there has been price parity between benzene, styrene and polystyrene. The availability of benzene and the high benzene prices may affect demand growth and trade patterns. However, despite very high prices, which historically have shown a negative impact on demand, in 2004 demand for styrenics remained strong, CMAI says. Trade patterns for styrene will change in the future as new monomer capacity comes on-stream in the Middle East with Northeast Asia (mostly China) as its primary destination. This import volume will in turn provide the raw material for substantial styrene derivative capacity expansions. China’s self-sufficiency in polystyrene will continue to increase and the growth in polystyrene trade will slow. As with PVC and polyolefins, Asia and especially China will be the key to future growth and the styrenics industry is positioning itself to supply China. The market studies cover more than 50 countries and provide history back to 1999 and a five-year forecast to 2009. They include supply/demand forecasts, capacity, profitability, production costs, technology assessments, trade, price forecasts as well as other issues that affect the individual industries. The studies are available in book or CDROM format priced at US$9000 for the vinyls and polyolefins reports and $8000 for PS/EPS. Contact: Erika Soechting, CMAI, 11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 750, Houston, TX 77079, USA; tel: +1-281-531-4660; fax: +1-281-531-9966; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.cmaiglobal.com
Additives for Polymers
EVENTS CALENDAR 2–3 December 2004 [new date] London, UK Plastics Pricing & LME Futures Emap Conferences, 3rd Floor, 151 Rosebery Avenue, London, EC1R 4GB, UK; tel: +4420-7505-8564; fax: +44-20-7505-8566; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.plastics-events.com 7–9 December 2004 Zürich, Switzerland Polyester 2004 Maack Business Services, Moosacherstrasse 14, CH-8804 Zürich, Switzerland; tel: +41-1781-3040; fax: +41-1-781-1569; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.mbspolymer.com 8–10 December 2004 New Orleans, LA, USA Natural Fiber Reinforcements/Wood Plastics 2004 Scott Stephenson, Conference Director, Intertech, 19 Northbrook Drive, Portland, ME 04105, USA; tel: +1-207-781-9608; fax: +1207-781-2150; e-mail: [email protected]; URL: www.intertechusa.com 10 December 2004 Frankfurt, Germany Natural Fibres Emap Conferences, URL: www.plasticsevents.com (other contact as above) 25–26 January 2004 Brussels, Belgium Flame Retardants for Electrical Applications Emap Conferences, URL: www.plasticsevents.com (other contact as above) 9–11 February 2005 New Orleans, LA, USA Thermoplastic Concentrates 2005 Applied Market Information LLC, Suite #204, 833 North Park Road, Wyomissing, PA 19610, USA; tel: +1-610-478-0800; fax: +1-610-4780900; URL: www.amiplastics.com
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