Models Of Electric Power Industry Security Study For Medium-Term Periods

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Models OfIFAC Electric Power Industry Security Study PapersOnLine 51-30 (2018) 405–409 Models Of Electric Power Industry Security Study Models Power Industry Security Study For Medium-Term Periods Models Of Of Electric Electric Power Industry Security Study For Medium-Term Periods For Medium-Term Periods Models Of Electric Power Industry Security Study For Medium-Term Periods V. Nasibov*. R. Alizade** For Medium-Term Periods V. V. Nasibov*. Nasibov*. R. R. Alizade** Alizade**

V. Nasibov*. R. Alizade** *Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and Designed–Prospecting *Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and(e-mail: Designed–Prospecting Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, nvaleh@ mail.ru), V. Nasibov*. R. Alizade** *Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and Designed–Prospecting *Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and Designed–Prospecting Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: nvaleh@ **Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and Designed–Prospecting Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: nvaleh@ mail.ru), mail.ru), Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: nvaleh@ mail.ru), **Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and Designed–Prospecting Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: [email protected])} *Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and **Azerbaijani Scientific–Research andDesigned–Prospecting Designed–Prospecting **Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and(e-mail: Designed–Prospecting Institute of Azerbaijan, (e-mail: [email protected])} Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, nvaleh@ mail.ru), Institute of Energetics,Baku, Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: [email protected])} Institute of Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: [email protected])} **Azerbaijani Scientific–Research and Designed–Prospecting Abstract: The models of electric power industry security for medium-term periods have been Instituteofof study Energetics,Baku, Azerbaijan, (e-mail: [email protected])} Abstract: The models of study of electric power industry security medium-term periods have been developed in this paper. These models are the development of models assessing electric power industry Abstract: The models of study of electric power industry security for forfor medium-term periods have been Abstract: The models ofThese studypresented of electric power industry security forfor medium-term periods have been developed in this paper. models are the development of models assessing electric power industry security for short-term periods, earlier, were the electric power industry is presented as a set of 4 developed in this paper. These models are the development of models for assessing electric power industry developed in this paper. These models are the development of models for assessing electric power industry security for short-term periods, presented earlier, were the electric power industry is presented as a set 4 interconnected subsystems. The electric power industry for medium-term periods is presented as a set Abstract: The models of study of electric power industry security for medium-term periods have been security for short-term periods, presented earlier, were the electric power industry is presented as a set of ofof 4 for in short-term periods, presented earlier, werefor theanalysis electric power industry isispresented asasa set ofof 4 interconnected subsystems. The electric power industry for medium-term periods presented a set 5security interconnected subsystems, the basic indicators of electric power industry subsystems' developed this paper. These models are the development of models for assessing electric power industry interconnected subsystems. The electric power industry for medium-term periods is presented as a set of interconnected subsystems. The electric power industry for medium-term periods is presented as a set of 5 subsystems, the basic indicators for electric power industry subsystems' security have been defined, models for determining the level of is electric power security for short-term periods,and presented earlier, were theanalysis electricofof power industry presented as aindustry set of 4 5 interconnected interconnected subsystems, the the basic indicators for analysis of electric power industry subsystems' 5 interconnected subsystems, the basic indicators for analysis of the electric power industry subsystems' security have been defined, and the models for determining of level of electric power industry security, depending on the values of internal and external threats and resilience of each component interconnected subsystems. The electric power industry for medium-term periods is presented as a of setthe of security have been defined, and the models for determining of the level of electric power industry security have been defined, and the models for determining ofof the level power ofofelectric power industry security, depending on internal and threats resilience component of electric power industry havevalues been developed. 5 interconnected subsystems, theof basic indicators for analysis industry subsystems' security, depending on the the values of internal and external external threats and andelectric resilience of each each component of the the security, depending the values threatsofandtheresilience each component of the electric power industry have been developed. security have been on defined, and of theinternal modelsand forexternal determining level ofofelectric power industry electric industry have Federation been developed. © 2018, power IFAC (International of Automatic Control) Hosting Elsevier security Ltd. All component rights reserved. Keywords: risk andon resilience, ofand electric power industry security, of subsystems of electric power industry havevalues beenindicators developed. security, depending the of internal external threats andby resilience of each of the Keywords: risk and resilience, indicators of electric power industry security, security of subsystems of electric power industry. electric power industry have beenindicators developed. Keywords: risk and resilience, of electric power industry security, security of subsystems of Keywords: risk and resilience, indicators of electric power industry security, security of subsystems of electric power industry. electric power industry. electric power industry. Keywords: risk and resilience, indicators of electric power industry security, security of subsystems of electric power industry security (Kruyt et al., 2009), electric power industry. 1. INTRODUCTION electric power industry security2010), (Kruyt(Stirling, et al., al., 2010), 2009), (Yusifbeyli and industry Gouseinov, electric power security (Kruyt et 2009), 1. INTRODUCTION electric power industry security (Kruyt et al., 2009), 1. INTRODUCTION (Yusifbeyli and Gouseinov, 2010), (Stirling, 2010), et al., 2010) . Reliable and stable operation of the fuel-energy complex and (Yusifbeyli and Gouseinov, 2010), (Stirling, 2010), 1. INTRODUCTION (Yusifbeyli and Gouseinov, 2010), (Stirling, 2010), et al., 2010) . electric power industry security (Kruyt et al., 2009), Reliable and of stable operation of the the fuel-energy complex and components its power systems is fuel-energy a necessary complex conditionand of (Yusifbeyli et al., 2010) . 1. INTRODUCTION Reliable and stable operation of This paper et discusses the issues of2010), electric(Stirling, power industry al., 2010) . (Yusifbeyli and Gouseinov, 2010), Reliable and stable operation of the fuel-energy complex and components ofnational its power power systems is aa country necessary condition of economic andof security of any in the world. of components its systems is necessary condition This paper discusses the issues of Electric electric power power industry industry security foret medium-term periods. (Yusifbeyli al., 2010)the . issues paper discusses of electric components of its power systems is fuel-energy a country necessary condition of This economic and national security of any in the world. Reliable and stable operation of the complex and This paper discusses the issues of electric power industry economic and national security of any country in the world. security for medium-term periods. Electric is understood as the immunity of state, society and The ever increasing complexity industry systems, for medium-term periods. Electric power industry economic andofnational security ofof any in the world. components its power systems is power a country necessary condition of security security forcitizens medium-term periods. Electric power industry is understood as the immunity of state, society and individual from the threats of deficit when providing This paper discusses the issues of electric The ever increasing complexity of power industry systems, their interconnection and interdependence require carrying is understood as the immunity of state, society and economic and nationalcomplexity security ofof anypower country in the world. The ever increasing industry systems, security security is understood asthe the immunity of electric state, society and individual citizens from threats of deficit when providing their needs with economically affordable power of for medium-term periods. Electric power industry The ever increasing complexity of at power industry systems, their interconnection and interdependence require carrying out a study of energy security task the level of individual citizens from the threats of deficit when providing their interconnection and interdependence require carrying individual individual citizens from the threats of deficit when providing their needs with economically affordable electric power of acceptable quality, and from the threats of disturbances security is understood as the immunity of state, society and their interconnection and interdependence require carrying their out a study of energy security task at the level of individual power industry systems for different time periods. The ever increasing complexity of power industry systems, needs with economically affordable electric power of out a study of energy security task at the level of individual their needscitizens with economically affordable electric power of acceptable quality, and from the threats of disturbances continuous electric power supply. individual from the threats of deficit when providing out a interconnection study of energy security task at theperiods. level of individual power industry systems for different time their and interdependence require carrying acceptable quality, and from the threats of disturbances of power industry systems for time periods. acceptable quality, and from the threats ofelectric disturbances Electric power industry is different a system-forming of not their continuous electric power supply. needs electric with economically affordable power of power industry systems for different time out a study of energy security task at theperiods. levelbranch of individual continuous power supply. Here, as in electric the study of short-term periods,ofthe main focus of is continuous power supply. Electric power industry is a system-forming branch of not only energetics, but also the economy as a whole. Not only acceptable quality, and from the threats disturbances power industry time periods. Electric power systems industryfor is different a system-forming branch of not Here, as in the study of short-term periods, the main focus is on the possible physical disturbances. When studying the Electric power industry is a system-forming branch of not only energetics, but depends also the the essentially economy as asonaa awhole. whole. Not only Here, the energy security level ofNot electric continuous power supply. periods, the main focus is as in electric the study of short-term only energetics, but also economy only Here, as in the study of short-term periods, the main focus is on the possible physical disturbances. When studying the electric power industry security for medium-term periods, only energetics, but also the economy as a whole. Not only the energy security depends essentially on level of electric power industry security, also the on economic and Electric power industry isbut aessentially system-forming branch ofeven not on the possible physical disturbances. When studying the the energy security depends aa level of electric on the possible physical disturbances. When studying the electric power industry security for medium-term periods, power industry is represented by a set of 5 Here, as in the study of short-term periods, the main focus is the energy security depends essentially on a level of electric power industry security, buteconomy also(Bohi, theaseconomic economic and even national securitybut of also the country and Toman, only energetics, the a whole. Not1996), only electric power industry security for medium-term periods, the power industry security, but also the and even electric power industry security for medium-term periods, the power industry is represented by a set of interconnected subsystems, another subsystem is added to on the possible physical disturbances. When studying power industry security, but also the economic and even national security of the country (Bohi, and Toman, 1996), (Cherp, and Jewell, 2010), (Cherp, the energy security essentially on a Jewell, level of 2011a), electric power industry is represented by a set of 55 national security ofdepends the country (Bohi,and and Toman, 1996), electric electric powerindustry industry isanother represented set to of the 5 interconnected subsystems, subsystem isaadded added four subsystems listed: asecurity subsystem of powerbyconsumption. power for medium-term periods, national security of2011b), the country (Bohi, and Jewell, Toman, 1996), (Cherp, and Jewell, 2010), (Cherp, and 2011a), and Jewell, (Kendell, 1998). power industry security, but also the economic and even subsystems, another subsystem is to the (Cherp, and Jewell, 2010), (Cherp, and Jewell, 2011a), interconnected interconnected subsystems, another subsystem is added to the four subsystems subsystems listed: subsystem of power powerbyconsumption. consumption. electric power listed: industry is represented a set of 5 (Cherp, and andJewell, Jewell, 2010), (Cherp, and 2011b), (Kendell, 1998). national security of2011b), the country (Bohi, and Jewell, Toman,2011a), 1996), four aa subsystem (Cherp, and Jewell, (Kendell, Despite the fact, that the names of of thepower first four subsystems subsystems listed: a subsystem of consumption. Earlier our papers the models of1998). estimation of 2011a), electric four interconnected subsystems, another subsystem is added to the and Jewell, 2011b), (Kendell, 1998). (Cherp, in and Jewell, 2010), (Cherp, and Jewell, Despite the fact, that the names of the first four subsystems are the same both for short-term periods and for mediumEarlier in our papers the models of estimation of electric power industry security for short-term periods have been four subsystems listed: a subsystem of power consumption. the fact, that the names of the first four subsystems (Cherp, in andour Jewell, 2011b), (Kendell,of1998). Earlier papers the models estimation of electric Despite Despite the fact, the names ofperiods the four subsystems are theperiods, same both for short-term and for mediumtermthe thethat study methods of first their security have Earlier in where our papers thefor models of estimation of electric power industry security short-term periods have been presented, the electric industry was presented in are same both for short-term periods and for mediumpower industry security for power short-term periods have been are the same both for short-term periods and for mediumterm periods, the study methods of their security have significant differences. There are differences in the Despite the fact, that the names of the first four subsystems power industry security for short-term periods have been presented, where the electric electric power industry industry was presented presented in term periods, the study methods of their security have the form of four interconnected subsystems: Earlier in where our papers the models of estimation of fuelling electric presented, the power was in term periods, the study methods of their security have significant differences. There are differences in the composition of indicators, and in their values. For example, if are the same both for short-term periods and for mediumpresented, where the electric power industry was presented in the form ofelectric four interconnected subsystems: fuelling subsystem, power subsystem, electric power industry security for production short-term periods have been significant differences. There are differences in the the form of four interconnected subsystems: fuelling significant differences. There are differences in the composition of indicators, and in their values. For example, if their current values serve as indicators' values for short-term term periods, the study methods of their security have the form of four interconnected subsystems: fuelling subsystem, electric power production subsystem, electric power transmission and power distribution subsystem and presented, where the electric industry was presented in composition of indicators, and in their values. For example, if subsystem, electric power production subsystem, electric composition of indicators, and in their values. For example, if their current values serve as indicators' values for short-term periods, then, for the medium-term periods, for the values of significant differences. There are differences in the subsystem, electric power production subsystem, electric power transmission and distribution subsystem and connections neighbouring power systems the formtransmission of with four the interconnected subsystems: fuelling current values serve as indicators' values for short-term power and distribution subsystem and their their current values serve as indicators' values for short-term periods, then, for the medium-term periods, for theexample, values of of indicatorsthen, areoftheir predictive (Jewell, 2011). composition indicators, andvalues in their values.for Forthe if power and distribution subsystem connections withsubsystem the neighbouring power systems and periods, electricitytransmission import (Yusifbeyli and Nasibov, 2013), subsystem, electric power production subsystem, electric for the medium-term periods, values connections with the neighbouring power systems and periods, then, for the medium-term periods, for theshort-term values of indicators are their predictive values (Jewell, 2011). their current values serve as indicators' values for connections withFor theeach neighbouring power systems and indicators electricity import subsystem (Yusifbeyli and Nasibov, 2013), (Nasibov, 2014). subsystem, the most characteristic power transmission and distribution subsystem theirthis, predictive values (Jewell, 2011). electricity import subsystem (Yusifbeyli and Nasibov, 2013), indicators Proceedingare the schemes for studying ofvalues the first arefrom their predictive values periods, (Jewell, 2011). for the medium-term for the of electricity import subsystem (Yusifbeyli and Nasibov, 2013), (Nasibov, 2014). For each subsystem, the most characteristic indicators 2014). were selected, the external the and internal risks connections with theeach neighbouring power systems and periods, then, (Nasibov, For subsystem, most characteristic Proceeding from this, the schemes for studying of the with first four blocks for medium-term periods in comparison indicators are their predictive values (Jewell, 2011). Proceeding from this, the schemes for studying of the first (Nasibov, 2014). For eachthe subsystem, the most characteristic indicators were selected, external and internal risks and resiliencies were separately grouped, and the security level of electricity import subsystem (Yusifbeyli and Nasibov, 2013), from this, the schemes for studying of the with first indicators were selected, the external and internal risks and Proceeding four blocksperiods for medium-term medium-term periods in comparison comparison short-term are somewhat modified. indicators were external and internal risks blocks for periods in with resiliencies wereselected, separately grouped, and the security level of four each subsystem according to theand classification of and the (Nasibov, 2014). For eachthe subsystem, the most characteristic four blocksperiods for medium-term periods in comparison with resiliencies were separately grouped, the security level of short-term are somewhat modified. Proceeding from this, the schemes for studying of the first resiliencies were separately and theinternal security level of periods are somewhat modified. each subsystem according towas theassessed. classification of the International Energy Agency Here,risks riskand is short-term indicators were selected, thegrouped, external and short-term periods are somewhatperiods modified. each subsystem according to the classification of the four blocks for medium-term in comparison with each subsystem according towas theassessed. classification of the International Energy Agency Here,are risk is understood asEnergy theseparately most significant more resiliencies were grouped, and the which security level of International Agency was threats, assessed. Here, risk is International Energy Agency was assessed. Here, risk is short-term periods are somewhat modified. understood as the most significant threats, which are more likely to be realized, and resilience -as a resilience of each subsystem according to the classification of the understood as the most significant threats, which are more understood asEnergy the most significant arerisk more likely to be be realized, and resilience -as which resilience subsystem to various disturbances, aimed violating of International Agency was threats, assessed. is likely to realized, and resilience -as aaat Here, resilience of likely to be realized, and resilience -as which aat resilience subsystem to various disturbances, aimed violating of understood as the most significant threats, are more subsystem to various disturbances, aimed at violating of subsystem to realized, various disturbances, violating of likely to be and resilienceaimed -as aat resilience of 405 Copyright © 2018 IFAC subsystem to various disturbances, aimed at violating of 2405-8963 © 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Copyright 2018 IFAC 405Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright 2018 responsibility IFAC 405Control. Peer review© of International Federation of Automatic Copyright ©under 2018 IFAC 405 10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.11.342 Copyright © 2018 IFAC 405

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dependence on import, for Azerbaijan this parameter takes the value of "low" and refers to A group, since Azerbaijan is an exporter of natural gas.

Domestic factors Low risk and high resilience

High risk and low resilience

A value of "share of seabed mining" parameter is divided into the following groups: high >80% and low <30%. The variety of fuels and diversification of the delivery paths are calculated with using the Herfindahl-Hirschman method. This parameter for all indicators is divided into three ranges: high variety (<0.33), moderate variety (0.33-0.64) and low variety (>0.64).

Group Grou A pA External factors

Group GroupBB

Group C C

As it is seen from Fig. 2, the predictive security value of fuelling subsystem of Azerbaijan electric power industry for medium-term periods can correspond to the letter symbols from B to D, depending on the variety of fuels, share of seabed mining and diversification of the main fuel delivery paths. Moreover, under the prevailing conditions, when natural gas is mainly burnt (used) in Azerbaijan power plants, and a share of seabed mining tends to grow (this position will be preserved for the medium-term prospect), the relatively safe state of this subsystem's security is achieved with a high level of diversification of the main fuel delivery paths.

Group Group D D GroupEE Group

High risk and low resilience Fig. 1. Energy security profiles.

Dependence on import high

low

2. SECURITY OF SUBSYSTEMS OF ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY FOR MEDIUM-TERM PERIODS

medium A

As for short-term periods, the security of all subsystems, constituting the electric power industry, for medium-term periods is classified by letter symbols from A to E, as it is shown in the IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) (Jewell, 2011) Fig. 1, where A corresponds to the lowest risks and maximum resilience, and E to the greatest risks and the lowest resilience. If to apply linguistic variables to the classification of security of subsystems, constituting the electric power industry, then the following approximate conformities can be obtained: А-excellent, B-normal, C-not bad, D-bad and E-very bad. As for short-term periods, the selected indicators of each subsystem take one of the three values: low, medium and high. Below, all subsystems are considered separately.

Step 1 Step 2 Variety of fuels low medium SSM m h

SSM m h

DDR DDR h m-h h-m l

B

C

h-m

DDR DDR l h-m l

D

E

2.1 Electric power industry fuelling The risks and resiliencies for assessing of security of natural gas support to the electric power industry sector are shown in Table 1.

SSM-Share of seabed mining DDR-Diversification of delivery paths h-high m-medium l-low

Table 1. Natural gas: dimensions of energy security and indicators Internal

Risks – Share of seabed mining of main fuel type

Fig. 2. Electric power industry fuelling.

Resiliencies – Variety of fuels – Diversification of delivery paths

2.2 Electric power production The most dangerous risks and resiliencies for a subsystem of electric power production for medium-term periods are shown in Table 2.

The security of fuelling subsystem of electric power industry is estimated in two steps according to the scheme presented in Fig. 1. The main indicator of this subsystem is a 406

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Table 2. Subsystem of electric power production for medium-term periods Risks External Internal

Absent – Electricity generation by own sources – Wear rate of the main generating equipment

407

Electric power generation by own sources

Resiliencies Absent – Share of HPPs – The share of modular (fast-lead) distributed generation – Power reserve

low

high medium A

B

B

Step 1 Step 2 Level of reserve high

A security assessment of electric power production subsystem is carried out in 3 steps. The most important indicator of security of electric power production subsystem is generation of electric power by its own sources, the first step is determined by this parameter. For Azerbaijan power system, this parameter refers to the range of "high" (100%). The second step of classification is carried out in dependence on the level of reservation. Reserve, like all other parameters, is estimated by three ranges <15% -low reserve, 15-25% medium reserve, >30% -high reserve. Analysis of ongoing and planned works in the electric power industry shows, that a power reserve parameter will correspond to the values of "high", or "medium".

low medium

WRME

WRME l m h

l m h

A

WRME

B

C

Step 3

l m h

D

E

WRME-wear rate of the main equipment

Wear rate of the main generating equipment acts as a third step, and defines the further classification of this subsystem. In this process, the variability of electric power production at HPPs should be determined separately. In Azerbaijan power system 10-15% of electric power is produced at HPPs, and the maximum annual variability of production, in comparison with the previous year, does not exceed 30%. The predicted values of these indicators for the long-term prospect will not change significantly, and therefore a security of electric power production at HPPs must be attributed to B group. A wear rate of the main generating equipment takes one of three values <15% -low, from 15 to 30% - medium,> 40% -high. A wear rate of the main generating equipment is shown in Fig. 3. It is seen from the figure that this parameter refers to the second range.

Fig. 4. Electric power production subsystem for mediumterm periods. As it is seen from Fig. 4, according to the predicted values of power reserve and wear rate of the main generating equipment, a security of electric power production subsystem for medium-term periods can be attributed to A-C groups. 2.3 Transmission and distribution of electric power As the security parameters of this subsystem are the wear of substations, transformers, overhead power transmission lines, as well as a degree of balance and self-sufficiency of the regions or large economic regions by electric power. The risks and resiliencies of this subsystem are shown in Table 3. Table 3. Risks and sustainability of the subsystem of transmission and distribution of electric power Risks External Internal

Absent – Wear rate of substations – Wear rate of transformers – Wear rate of power transmission lines

Resiliencies Absent Degree of balance and self-sufficiency of regions or large economic regions

Fig. 3 A wear rate of the main generating equipment. The indicator of wear of equipment takes one of three values: low (<25%), medium (30-50%) and high (>60%), and the indicator of balance degree is <40% -low, 40-70% -medium, >70%-high.

A block schematic diagram of assessment of the electric power production subsystem for medium-term periods is shown in Fig. 4.

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The main indicator of this subsystem is a duration of switching-offs. This parameter, along with the all others, takes one of three values: high, medium and low, where "low" corresponds to the standard time of consumers' switching-offs, "medium" is connected with frequent, small or rare major accidents, in which a time of switching-offs is more than the standard time, for "high" value a time of switching-offs is much greater than a standard time. A "high" value is connected with both emergency switchingoffs, and a shortage of generating capacities and regime constraints.

2.4 Connections with the neighbouring power systems and import of electric power Security of this subsystem, both for short-term, medium-term periods, is studied according to the scheme, as it is shown in Fig. 5, and refers to A group. The main indicator of this subsystem is level of import, and today Azerbaijan practically does not import electric power, and in the nearest future its export potential is estimated at 4-5 billion kWh of electric power (Keppler, 2007), (Stirling, 1994) . Import Level low

high

medium

(absent) A

It is planned, that in the nearest years in Azerbaijan the average time of consumers' switching-offs will be at the level of 24 hours per year, and a parameter of switching-offs duration can correspond to the "low" or "medium" values.

B

A share of per capita income spent for electric power corresponds to the following values: low - <1.5%, medium-24% and high->6%.

C-E Step 1 Step 2

A tendency of change of per capita income share spent on electric power is shown in Table 5. The carried out policy in power industry - rehabilitation of the heating system, gasification of human settlements, 100% installation of electric power meters, etc. led to a relative decrease of power consumption by the population with its growth in industry, and especially in transport and services. As a result, a share of per capita income spent on electric power tends to decrease. It is seen from the table that this parameter, for today, corresponds to the "medium" value and will remain in this range within the next 3-5 years.

Import infrastructure high

RTC h-m

l

B

low

medium RTC

RTC

h m l

C

h-m

D

l

Table 5. The trend of changing the payment for electricity

E

Years

2009

2012

2015

RTC - reserve on transfer capability of intersystem connections

Consumption of the electric power by population, million kWh

8423

9190

7022

Fig. 5. Connections and electric power import.

Population

8897000

9235100

9593000

2.5 Electric power consumption

Per capita income, USD

3211.65

4790.25

5615.38

The risks and resiliencies for this block are shown in Table 4.

Share of income for electric power, %

2.2

1.6

0.9

Table 4. The risks and resiliencies for block of electric power consumption Risks External Absent Internal – A share of disconnected consumers in total power consumption – Duration of switchingoffs – Duration of operation with low quality of electric power – Share of average per capita income spent on electric power.

A parameter–relative reduction of electric power consumption at the expense of energy saving and application of effective technologies corresponds to the following values: low - <1%, medium-2-4% and high->6%.

Resiliencies Absent Relative reduction of power consumption, connected with the application of efficient technologies.

A block schematic diagram of security study of power consumption subsystem is shown in Fig. 6.

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REFERENCES

Duration of power cut l

SPCE

SPCE l-m

A

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h

m

l-m

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RPC

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h m-l

h m-l

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h

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RPC h-m l

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SPCE-share of the average per capita income spent on electric power. RPC-relative reduction of power consumption at the expense of energy saving and application of efficient technologies. Fig. 6. Block schematic diagram of security study of power consumption subsystem As it is seen from Fig. 6, a security of Azerbaijan electric power consumption subsystem for medium-term periods may be in the range of A-C. 3. CONCLUSIONS Electric power industry security for medium-term periods can be studied with using of 5 interconnected subsystems. The schematic diagrams for study of security of electric power industry subsystems for different time periods have been developed. It is determined, that the predictive security values of Azerbaijan electric power industry subsystems for mediumterm periods can correspond to the following conditions of security: a fueling subsystem from "normal" to "bad" (B-D); subsystem of electric power production from "excellent" to "not bad" (A-C); generation of electric power at HPPs "normal" (B); subsystem of transmission and distribution of electric power- from "normal" to "bad" (B-D); connection with neighboring power systems and import of electric power - "excellent" (A) , electric power consumption - from "excellent" to "not bad" (A-C) . The presented methodology for assessing of the security of electric power industry subsystems allows creating an information system, on the basis of which the factors determining the overall electric power security are synthesized. The presented methodology allows monitoring the changes of electric power industry's security level in time and assessing the efficiency of current policy in electric power industry. 409