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Modems and multiplexers
Modems and multiplexers
will prevent wide and immediate acceptance. The current statistical multiplexer market will grow at 100% Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) $895 compounded annually to the end of 1980. The added capability of the statistical multiplexer has narrowed The continued growth in the modem ever, current trends indicate that, for the distinctions between multiplexers the next five years, it is unlikely that and multiplexer industries is indicative and concentrators and convergence of DDS will have any significant impact of the data-communications boom of these two markets is likely in the next on the modem market. The multiplexer five years. the 1970s. In less than ten years, the market will also survive the introducindependent US modem manufacturers Although the basic technology in tion of DDS. Multiplexers can interfere modems and multiplexers has remained have competed with AT & T's Bell with the digital system and can be used relatively unchanged, the use of microSystem to create a $280M world marprocessors has enabled manufacturers ket that promises to reach $885M in to multiplex several analogue lines for to vastly improve the diagnostic capa1983, representing a 25.9%compound long-distance digital transmission. bilities in their products. The added annual growth rate. For multiplexers, The worldwide installed base of remote, line, and self-diagnostic feawith the advent of the intelligent or modems manufactured by US-based tures in today's modems, along with statistical multiplexer, sales will increase firms is projected to grow from 1.7M network control systems, give users the from a total of $43.5M in 1978 to units in 1978 to 5.4M installations by $193M in 1983, a compound growth necessary indicators to effectively moni1983, a 25.6% compound annual rate of 34.7%. The successof both tor their data communications. growth rate. The multiplexer market markets is ensured by the ever increasIn contrast to microprocessors, the is expected to grow at 32.9% coming demand for high-speed, high-volume impact of LSI has fallen short of expecpound annual rate, with the 1978 indata transmission and the ever improvstalled worldwide unit base of 35 000 tations for several reasons. While micing price/performance ratio of modems units by US manufacturers increasing roprocessors can be reprogrammed to to 145000 units by 1983. The appliand multiplexers. Modems and multiinclude new capabilities, a customcations of frequency and time division plexers represent an important, growdesigned LSI chip offers no flexibility. If new functions are desired, the LSI multiplexers will decrease as the statising, segment of the larger data communications industry. The increasing tical multiplexer begins to dominate the chip must be redesigned, rebuilt and market over the next five years. retested. This often proves unfeasible, growth of computers and remote terminals has created a huge demand for Several important market trends will given the high development costs and continue through 1983. These include: time involved. Finally, the present dequick accurate and cost effective data the shift to high-speed data transmission, mand for a particular modem suitable transmission. the growth of the export market, the for a custom LSI design would not exThe results of the 1966 Carterfone ceed 10000 to 15 000 units per year increased dependence on network diagcase helped open the market to indenostics and the widespread applications whereas in the integrated circuit induspendent modem manufacturers. of the intelligent or statistical multiptry a production run must be millions Throughout the 1960s, the Bell System lexer. Recent market demands indicate of units per year to achieve desired prohibited any 'foreign attachments' (including modems) to the public teleeconomics of scale. However LSI may that the 1200 bit/s modem and 4 800 and 9 600 bit/s units are the significant soon be able to demonstrate its advanphone line giving Bell a total monogrowth areas for the next five years. tages, with the potential widespread poly of the modem market. In the The 1 200 bit/s unit is likely to become growth of the point-of-sale industry Carterfone decision, however, the FCC an entry-level standard, thus replacing and the hobby computer market removed this restriction. Now, with There are three main competitive the 300 bit/s modem which historically proper certification, any variety of prifactors in this industry: sales and service held that position. The 4 800 bit/s vately produced modems may be consegment promises to attract many of the capabilities, offering a distinct product, nected with the public networks. 2400 bit/s users who seek a doubling and capital. As existing firms continue The future impact of AT & T's of data speed with much less than a to increase their market presence, the Dataphone Digital Service (DDS) presuccess of new entrants appears redoubling of price. sents a key issue for the modem and The introduction of the 1 200 bit/s mote. Subsequent to the Carterfone multiplexer industries. DDS is a digital decision, over 200 independent manufull-duplex modem and the statistical system which would theoretically elifacturers appeared in the modem/ minate the need for the digital-analogue multiplexer represents the two most conversion function of existing modems. important technological product immultiplexer business. In the following ten years, the market has shrunk conprovements in the past five years. The Bell, however, has been characteristi1 200 bit/s modem, first developed by siderably to less than 50 true suppliers. cally slow in promoting this service, and In 1978 alone Racal bought Vadic and Vadic in 1973, supersedes the halfin addition has been hampered by FCC Motorola acquired Universal Data Systariff restrictions. By 1990, Bell may duplex 1 200 bit/s modem and offers be able to carry out its intention of more efficient use of a given transmission tems. As competition becomes more intense this trend will continue. implementing DDS in 96 major c~ties line. Codex have introduced a fullMany manufacturers are seeking diduplex 2 400 bit/s unit, but its price throughout the United States. How-
130
computer communications
versification in their product line to protect their present and future market position. Modem makers have recognized the marketing boom in the statistical multiplexer, and at least two manufacturers, Gandalf Data and Prentice Electronics, will introduce their
own statistical multiplexer in 1979. Conversely, some multiplexer manufacturers, such as Infotron Systems, are developing a modem line. The large firms in both modems and multiplexers have also recognized the increasing demand for network control and diagnos-
tics. As product prices level off in the next few years, the real competition wil be in the features area where diagnostic control plays a vital role. (Creative
Strategies International, 4340 Stevens Creek Boulevard, Suite 295, San Jose, CA 95129, USA. Tel: (408) 249-7550) []
Intelligent communications processors and multiplexers Frost and Sullivan, USA and U K (1979) 181pp A market for intelligent processors is emerging which will reach $2.1 billion by 1986. While sales forecasts for the years 1977 to 1981 appear reasonably easy to define', the years 1982 to 1986 will become a transition phase, whereupon the market will undergo a major restructuring brought about by technological advances and regulatory changes. Altogether, some 40 mainframe and minicomputer vendors, independent suppliers of IBM-compatible equipment and custom equipment manufacturers market more than 80 different pieces of communications processing equipment~ Unit shipments of front-end processors in 1978 showed an increase of 16.5%
over shipments in 1977. This activity results from the trend to networking computers. By the early 1980s at least 90 %of computers will have datacommunications capability, which will be beneficial to the market for specialized communications processors used to relieve the mainframe of network control (which can consume 50% of a host's processing power). In the long term, however, AT & T's Advanced Communication Service may usurp this market for specialized processors by assuming these control functions. Computer communications has produced a big market for multiplexers. Such devices temper line usage, the
cost of which, even with the technology, now ranges between 40% and 60% of total network costs. The report also states that IBM has not introduced its computerized 3750 PBX in the US, due to the lack of wideband local distribution. Its introduction will be tied to the satellite business systems schedule. The current high pricing of intelligent programmable multiplexers per channel end (double that on conventional TDM) will disappear by 1981; the market outlook is exceptional The outlook for standalone message switchers is not optimistic and value added carriers will absorb a substantial amount of busines~ (Frost and Sullivan
Ltd, 104-112 Marylebone Lane, London WIN/5FU, UK. Tel: 01-486 8377)
[]
Small business computers Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) $895 The small business computer (SBC) industry continues to be one of the fastest growing in the computer field. The total market will have a 37% compound annual growth rate in units produced over the next five years. Small business computers are defined as small standalone general-purpose systems, priced under $I00 000, which are capable of handling routine business data-processing functions, for example IBM's System/34. The value of worldwide shipments of SBCs has risen to $2 billion in 1978 and is expected to reach $9 billion by 1983, a 34% compound annual increase. In 1978, 58 200 small business computers were delivered throughout the world by US-based manufacturers.
vol 2 no 3 june 1979
The SBC industry is served by dozens of vendors, who can be classified as: large mainframe computer manufacturers, independent suppliers and system houses, minicomputer manufacturers and microcomputer firms. Large mainframe computer manufacturers such as IBM, Burroughs and NCR account for major shares of the SBC market with independent suppliers and system houses, led by Wang, Datapoint, Basic/Four and Qantel as the second major group. Minicomputer manufacturers, such as DEC, have also captured a sizeable proportion of sales. Microcomputer firms are finally making their presence felt, but no individual microcomputer manufacturer yet accounts for a significant market force in
the next few years. Although most small business computers are installed in small companies, large firms are fast becoming primary targets for competitors in the industry. The introduction of a communications capability into SBC products has permitred increased sales to large companies for distributed data-processing purposes. Almost all manufacturers find it necessary to include communications software with the equipment, especially for multisales. First-time users account for approximately 75% of the 1978 shipments. Even some large corporations who purchase SBCs fall into this category because the computers are frequently operated by clerks or other nontechnically trained personnel. Word processing is another feature which many manufacturers offer for their systems.
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will prevent wide and immediate acceptance. The current statistical multiplexer market will grow at 100% Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) $895 compounded annually to the end of 1980. The added capability of the statistical multiplexer has narrowed The continued growth in the modem ever, current trends indicate that, for the distinctions between multiplexers the next five years, it is unlikely that and multiplexer industries is indicative and concentrators and convergence of DDS will have any significant impact of the data-communications boom of these two markets is likely in the next on the modem market. The multiplexer five years. the 1970s. In less than ten years, the market will also survive the introducindependent US modem manufacturers Although the basic technology in tion of DDS. Multiplexers can interfere modems and multiplexers has remained have competed with AT & T's Bell with the digital system and can be used relatively unchanged, the use of microSystem to create a $280M world marprocessors has enabled manufacturers ket that promises to reach $885M in to multiplex several analogue lines for to vastly improve the diagnostic capa1983, representing a 25.9%compound long-distance digital transmission. bilities in their products. The added annual growth rate. For multiplexers, The worldwide installed base of remote, line, and self-diagnostic feawith the advent of the intelligent or modems manufactured by US-based tures in today's modems, along with statistical multiplexer, sales will increase firms is projected to grow from 1.7M network control systems, give users the from a total of $43.5M in 1978 to units in 1978 to 5.4M installations by $193M in 1983, a compound growth necessary indicators to effectively moni1983, a 25.6% compound annual rate of 34.7%. The successof both tor their data communications. growth rate. The multiplexer market markets is ensured by the ever increasIn contrast to microprocessors, the is expected to grow at 32.9% coming demand for high-speed, high-volume impact of LSI has fallen short of expecpound annual rate, with the 1978 indata transmission and the ever improvstalled worldwide unit base of 35 000 tations for several reasons. While micing price/performance ratio of modems units by US manufacturers increasing roprocessors can be reprogrammed to to 145000 units by 1983. The appliand multiplexers. Modems and multiinclude new capabilities, a customcations of frequency and time division plexers represent an important, growdesigned LSI chip offers no flexibility. If new functions are desired, the LSI multiplexers will decrease as the statising, segment of the larger data communications industry. The increasing tical multiplexer begins to dominate the chip must be redesigned, rebuilt and market over the next five years. retested. This often proves unfeasible, growth of computers and remote terminals has created a huge demand for Several important market trends will given the high development costs and continue through 1983. These include: time involved. Finally, the present dequick accurate and cost effective data the shift to high-speed data transmission, mand for a particular modem suitable transmission. the growth of the export market, the for a custom LSI design would not exThe results of the 1966 Carterfone ceed 10000 to 15 000 units per year increased dependence on network diagcase helped open the market to indenostics and the widespread applications whereas in the integrated circuit induspendent modem manufacturers. of the intelligent or statistical multiptry a production run must be millions Throughout the 1960s, the Bell System lexer. Recent market demands indicate of units per year to achieve desired prohibited any 'foreign attachments' (including modems) to the public teleeconomics of scale. However LSI may that the 1200 bit/s modem and 4 800 and 9 600 bit/s units are the significant soon be able to demonstrate its advanphone line giving Bell a total monogrowth areas for the next five years. tages, with the potential widespread poly of the modem market. In the The 1 200 bit/s unit is likely to become growth of the point-of-sale industry Carterfone decision, however, the FCC an entry-level standard, thus replacing and the hobby computer market removed this restriction. Now, with There are three main competitive the 300 bit/s modem which historically proper certification, any variety of prifactors in this industry: sales and service held that position. The 4 800 bit/s vately produced modems may be consegment promises to attract many of the capabilities, offering a distinct product, nected with the public networks. 2400 bit/s users who seek a doubling and capital. As existing firms continue The future impact of AT & T's of data speed with much less than a to increase their market presence, the Dataphone Digital Service (DDS) presuccess of new entrants appears redoubling of price. sents a key issue for the modem and The introduction of the 1 200 bit/s mote. Subsequent to the Carterfone multiplexer industries. DDS is a digital decision, over 200 independent manufull-duplex modem and the statistical system which would theoretically elifacturers appeared in the modem/ minate the need for the digital-analogue multiplexer represents the two most conversion function of existing modems. important technological product immultiplexer business. In the following ten years, the market has shrunk conprovements in the past five years. The Bell, however, has been characteristi1 200 bit/s modem, first developed by siderably to less than 50 true suppliers. cally slow in promoting this service, and In 1978 alone Racal bought Vadic and Vadic in 1973, supersedes the halfin addition has been hampered by FCC Motorola acquired Universal Data Systariff restrictions. By 1990, Bell may duplex 1 200 bit/s modem and offers be able to carry out its intention of more efficient use of a given transmission tems. As competition becomes more intense this trend will continue. implementing DDS in 96 major c~ties line. Codex have introduced a fullMany manufacturers are seeking diduplex 2 400 bit/s unit, but its price throughout the United States. How-
130
computer communications
versification in their product line to protect their present and future market position. Modem makers have recognized the marketing boom in the statistical multiplexer, and at least two manufacturers, Gandalf Data and Prentice Electronics, will introduce their
own statistical multiplexer in 1979. Conversely, some multiplexer manufacturers, such as Infotron Systems, are developing a modem line. The large firms in both modems and multiplexers have also recognized the increasing demand for network control and diagnos-
tics. As product prices level off in the next few years, the real competition wil be in the features area where diagnostic control plays a vital role. (Creative
Strategies International, 4340 Stevens Creek Boulevard, Suite 295, San Jose, CA 95129, USA. Tel: (408) 249-7550) []
Intelligent communications processors and multiplexers Frost and Sullivan, USA and U K (1979) 181pp A market for intelligent processors is emerging which will reach $2.1 billion by 1986. While sales forecasts for the years 1977 to 1981 appear reasonably easy to define', the years 1982 to 1986 will become a transition phase, whereupon the market will undergo a major restructuring brought about by technological advances and regulatory changes. Altogether, some 40 mainframe and minicomputer vendors, independent suppliers of IBM-compatible equipment and custom equipment manufacturers market more than 80 different pieces of communications processing equipment~ Unit shipments of front-end processors in 1978 showed an increase of 16.5%
over shipments in 1977. This activity results from the trend to networking computers. By the early 1980s at least 90 %of computers will have datacommunications capability, which will be beneficial to the market for specialized communications processors used to relieve the mainframe of network control (which can consume 50% of a host's processing power). In the long term, however, AT & T's Advanced Communication Service may usurp this market for specialized processors by assuming these control functions. Computer communications has produced a big market for multiplexers. Such devices temper line usage, the
cost of which, even with the technology, now ranges between 40% and 60% of total network costs. The report also states that IBM has not introduced its computerized 3750 PBX in the US, due to the lack of wideband local distribution. Its introduction will be tied to the satellite business systems schedule. The current high pricing of intelligent programmable multiplexers per channel end (double that on conventional TDM) will disappear by 1981; the market outlook is exceptional The outlook for standalone message switchers is not optimistic and value added carriers will absorb a substantial amount of busines~ (Frost and Sullivan
Ltd, 104-112 Marylebone Lane, London WIN/5FU, UK. Tel: 01-486 8377)
[]
Small business computers Creative Strategies International, USA (1979) $895 The small business computer (SBC) industry continues to be one of the fastest growing in the computer field. The total market will have a 37% compound annual growth rate in units produced over the next five years. Small business computers are defined as small standalone general-purpose systems, priced under $I00 000, which are capable of handling routine business data-processing functions, for example IBM's System/34. The value of worldwide shipments of SBCs has risen to $2 billion in 1978 and is expected to reach $9 billion by 1983, a 34% compound annual increase. In 1978, 58 200 small business computers were delivered throughout the world by US-based manufacturers.
vol 2 no 3 june 1979
The SBC industry is served by dozens of vendors, who can be classified as: large mainframe computer manufacturers, independent suppliers and system houses, minicomputer manufacturers and microcomputer firms. Large mainframe computer manufacturers such as IBM, Burroughs and NCR account for major shares of the SBC market with independent suppliers and system houses, led by Wang, Datapoint, Basic/Four and Qantel as the second major group. Minicomputer manufacturers, such as DEC, have also captured a sizeable proportion of sales. Microcomputer firms are finally making their presence felt, but no individual microcomputer manufacturer yet accounts for a significant market force in
the next few years. Although most small business computers are installed in small companies, large firms are fast becoming primary targets for competitors in the industry. The introduction of a communications capability into SBC products has permitred increased sales to large companies for distributed data-processing purposes. Almost all manufacturers find it necessary to include communications software with the equipment, especially for multisales. First-time users account for approximately 75% of the 1978 shipments. Even some large corporations who purchase SBCs fall into this category because the computers are frequently operated by clerks or other nontechnically trained personnel. Word processing is another feature which many manufacturers offer for their systems.
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