Morphology: A tool for exploring new technology

Long Range Planning, Vol. Printed in Great Britain

17, No.

3,

0024-h301/84 Pergamon

pp. 129 to 140, 1984

S3.00 + .oo Press Ltd.

129

Morphology: A Tool for Exploring New Technology Russ Shurig,

Information

Planning

Division,

New products, new services and new approaches to doing business may be essential in order to return to a period of long term economic prosperity. A particularly powerful approach to innovation is the technique called ‘morphology’. KondratieffS use of the morphology technique to analyse business cycles, and also an original use of morphology to analyse the categories of existence. are here applied to deduce office worker archetypes and significant business management issues as a function of economic phase. The economic phases of prosperity, recession, depression and recovery are related to the following business management issues: productivity, time management, innovation and management by objectives. These issues correspond, respectively, to the following office worker archetypes: information worker, skill worker, knowledge worker and decision maker.

At one level, every company seeks to be as productive as possible by minimizing the inputs needed to provide its products and services. At another level, however, there is a need periodically to set aside the issue of output/input productivity and concentrate, rather, on new products and services, without which a company, and ultimately must stagnate (Mensch).’ A an economy, and mid-term success company’s short-term depends upon its productivity; but its mid-term and long-term survival may depend upon its ability either to produce new products and services or, at least, upon its adaptability to new modes of and new business challenges. doing things Although innovation must never become an end in itself, neither should tradition. Occasionally, a bold break with tradition is needed. Just as there are well defined techniques for enhancing productivity, there are a variety of techniques for producing new insights, new product/service ideas. new production techniques, new markets and new frontiers.’ One of the most

The author IS a member of the Information Planning Division of Ontario Hydra. 700 University Avenue, Room H5-E26 Toronto. Ontario M5G 1 X6, Canada.

Ontario

Hydvo

intriguing techniques for innovation is called ‘morphology’. Although this technique has not been given much attention in business literature, it can nevertheless be surprisingly powerful in its practical and theoretical applications.3 The morphology approach to innovation is more easily characterized than defined, so I will begin by is a technique for characterizing it: morphology for interdisciplinary problem lateral thinking, solving, prophecy or forecasting, fundamental research and creative speculation. Morphologies are often grand attempts to unlock the structural secrets of Nature. Perhaps the most famous examples of this use of morphology are (a) the periodic table of the chemical elements, (b) the quark model of subatomic Hadron particles, and (c) the genetic code. In the case of examples such as these, entire industries are spawned. Morphology emphasizes the importance of nonnumeric analysis as opposed to the usual data oriented, e.g. statistical or multivariate, analyses. Morphology is an extension of the Cartesian approach (i.e. that ofanalytic geometry) which uses a multidimensional spatial arrangement to depict and analyse numeric relationships. In morphology, non-numeric relationships are depicted and analysed instead. In Cartesian analysis, every point is assigned two or more numbers, depending upon the number of dimensions used, whereas in morphology every square or box is assigned two or more verbal meanings depending upon the number of dimensions needed. Thus, morphologies are verbal syntheses rather than numeric analyses; they force the use of a common language across disciplines, concepts or alternatives. In its simplest form, a morphological approach to a problem amounts to forming a grid, box or multidimensional matrix and marking off its edges to represent meaningful increments in the principal or dimensions, of the problem. The parameters, small squares/boxes contained in the larger square

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1983 affected. With these dimensions of the problem defined, he then itemized the implied public policy activities. Bartha’s work demonstrates the combination of simplicity, power and methodical which is characteristic of the thoroughness morphology approach to new insights and to solving problems. Anyone wishing to try J practical application of morphology would do ~vell to study this example.

or box are then scrutinized and filled out appropriately; they then signify new entities or relationships and may themselves be subject to further morphological analysis. A calculus or geometry of meaning results, to borrow a phrase from Arthur Young,’ the inventor of the Sikorsky helicopter. Morphology may be the best approach to probing the structure of many problems, thereby helping to generate ideas for inventions and discoveries. Morphology is a bit like a helicopter: it hovers over a problem and then, at will, takes off in almost any direction desired by the pilot, within reason of course.

Another example of morphology, but one which is more esoteric, is given by Randolph6 who refers to He utilizes three his analysis as a typology. dimensions in order to analyse the relationships of technologies and types or between types organization units.

Not all charts and tables are morphologies. A chart is not a morphology if at least one of its axes cannot be considered to be a ‘dimension’ of the problem, has no unifying or ordering principle to speak of, or is a continuous numeric scale. Morphologies tend to be periodic or categorial. In the former, the cyclic nature of one of the dimensions is emphasized; in the latter, the fundamental constructs of the problem are analysed.

Recent Practical Morphology

Examples

More examples of applied morphology, this time with regard to information media, can be found in Shurig.’ The set of information media which text and data can be image, includes voice, considered as a dimension since the human race evolved them in that order. They are analysed with regard to,one another and to their use in the office and in the corporation. See Figures 1 and 2.

of Historic

Voice [24,000

Voice

(Voice is a Medium for Personal Contact)

Image

Message Cannot Easily be Verbalized but can be Displayed Pictorially

t

Text

Data

Figure

BCI

1. Comparison

Message is Complex or Hard Copy Record is Needed

I

Image [12,000

Media Preferences

Text

BCI

[SO00 BC]

Data

[3000 BC]

People Prefer the Use of Speech Rather than Text, Image or Data When Message is Urgent, Informal or Personal

(Image is a Medium for Visual Display)

’

Message is Brief and/or Verbal in Nature

Message is Complex, Precise, External in Origin or Signed

Message is Intricate or Overview is Needed or Impact is Important

(Text is a Medium for the Preservation of Thought)

Message is Qualitative and/or Non-Numeric

The Use of Data is Preferable to the Use of Voice, Image or Text When the Message is Quantitative or Precise

of information

of Morphology

Although not recognized as such, the morphology approach to innovation has been practised for centuries, probably since the advent ofwritten text. Two of the most famous examples were carried out

A simple application of the morphology mode of analysis appeared recently. Bartha,’ presented a morphology of the relationship between public issues and the various types of publics thereby

Information

Examples

media

to each

other

(Data is a Medium for the Preservation of Measurement)

Morphology:

A Tool

Information

Voice

Image

for Exploring

Technology

Text

Data

Telephone Audio Conferencing

Audio Graphics Video Conferencing

Dictation

Voice Recognition

Voice Annotation

Voice Ordering

Audio Processing

Picture Phone

Display Phone

Voice l/O

Voice Messaging

mage

131

Technologies

I

/oice

New

Text-to-Speech

Micrographics

Fiche Base

Graphics

Image Processing

Videotex

Facsimile

Computer Aided Drafting

Photocopy

Electronic Blackboard

Video

Telecommuting Photocomposition

Word Processing

Aperture Card Base Optical Character Recognition

Text Base

Teletext Text Messaging Text

TWX/Telex

Computer Conferencing

Electronic Mail Text Processing

Word Processing & Data Processing

Data Base Computation

Data

Data Processing Electronic Banking

Figure

2. User

needs

by two Russians: and the economic

and application

areas

or technologies

the chemist D. M. Mendeleev historian N. Kondratieff.

During the first half of the 19th century, numerous chemical elements were being isolated; the question arose as to whether or not there was an organizing principle behind the proliferation of elements. (More recently, the same question has been asked Lvith regard to some 200 sub-atomic particles; the quark morphology is an attempt to answer it.) By 1869, the leading chemist of Russia, Dmitri Mendeleev, had organized the 63 known chemical elements accordins to their increasing atomic xveights and their common properties. The columns of Mendeleev’s table correspond to the number of valence electrons in the outermost orbit of the atoms of the chemical elements. The valence electrons determine the binding characteristics of the atoms; thus the elements in a given column of the table have comparable propert:es. Mendeleev’s analysis/synthesis leas sufficiently detailed that he could predict the existence of several elements not

by information

media

combinations

yet discovered, by simply examining the gaps left in his table. Mendeleev’s ‘Periodic Table of the Chemical Elements’ was an historic success; it provided for the some 40 elements yet to be discovered and predicted the properties and best method of detection for a number of them. When Mendeleev’s paper was first read at a meeting of the prestigious Russian Chemical Society it was criticized for containing ‘so many blank spaces’.’ Kondratiefr Long Wave Business Cycle Perhaps the next major application of the morphology technique was published by the Russian economic historian Nickolai Kondratieff in 1925. The problem Kondratieff tackled was to determine if there is any pattern in the upswings and downswings of the economy. Observing recurring fluctuation in the economies of the national and international business communities, where periods of recession and recovery alternated with periods of relative prosperity and depression, Kondratieff analysed commodity prices and other economic indicators during the time period 1780 to

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his own day. He identified what came to be known as the ‘long wave’ in business activity (see Figure 3). Kondratieff was able to organize consecutive time periods in terms of (a) business phases, i.e. periods of prosperity, recession, depression and recovery, and (b) business epochs or ages characterized by major innovations. During periods of prosperity, profit margins are relatively high and employment levels during are considered reasonable; times of economic depression, both profit margins and employment levels are considered to be inadequate for a truly healthy and buoyant economy.

The Information

wave, for whatever learn that Kondratieff 1930.”

Kondratieff’s morphology, although unacceptable to many professional economists9 while others as Mendeleev’s support it,” may be as prophetic was in another field. There are numerous texts on the subject of business cycles; most of them are somewhat negative since there is generally too much or too little data to be able to prove any far reaching hypothesis. Kondratieff’s long wave did predict the general economic depression of the 1930s and revival of the 194Os, however. It also anticipated the periods of prosperity and recession 1950s to today. Somewhat from the early discouragingly, his theory suggests that the 1980s will be a decade of economic depression with longterm recovery not getting underway until the mid1990s. Those displeased with the Kondratieff long

Prosperity

Times, they are changing. Since the time of Adam Smith, Karl Marx and David Ricardo. energy/power has been added to the land/space, labour/management and capital/debt list of major determinants of the economy. And now information/knowledge must be added to this list.”

Long Wave

Recession

Revival

Depression

INFORMATION AGE (Jet Engine, Computer, Video, Communications, Satellites) (Nuclear Energy Microelectronics, Biotechnology, Robotics) 1954-1965

1966-i979

1995-2009

1980-1994

MERCANTILE AGE (Electricity, internal Combustion Engine, Oil, Petrochemicals) (Airplanes, Shipping, Electric Appliances and Tools) (Highways, Electrical Transmission Lines) 1898-1911

I

I

1843-1857

I

1912-1925

1926-1939

RAILROAD AGE ’ (R;lilways, Steam Engine, Coal, Steel) (Telephone, Telegraph, Phonograph, Cinema) 1858-1869

1870-1885

I

1940-1953

I

1886-1897

INDUSTRIAL AGE (Steam Power, Iron, Cotton, Textiles) 1787-1800

Figure

3. Kondratieff

morphology

1801-1813

of business

1814-1827

cycle,

to in

Subsequent to the Mercantile Age of 1X98-1953 (i.e. the Age of Imperialism), we have passed into another cycle of the Kondraticff long wave, one which has come to be known as the Information Age. This age is characterized by an abundance of information-oriented innovations such as television, computers, data banks, electronic mail. electronic banking, electronic publishing, clectronic (video) games, micrographics, microchips, microcomputers, telecommunications, telecommuting and robots. Inf-ormation industries, competing with energy intensive industries, have sprung up which provide information services and products. Bio-technology, one of the most promising new industries is really a product of the information age: it is founded on the ability to get at the information conterit of the DNA in the nucleus ofa cell. Robot technology, now in its early stage of development, is another major product of this age.

Age

Kondratieff

reason. may be interested \vas banished to Siberia

extended

to include

1828-l

842

the information

age”

Morphology: Consumers, business and industry are changing their spending habits; ‘mass’ oriented products, characteristic of heavy manufacturing, are in less demand whereas information intensive products and services are in greater and increasing demand. Bcrsiizess Cycles In connection with Kondratieff’s analysis of business trends in terms of a long wave of reminds us of 50-55 years duration, Schumpeter the intermediate wave identified by Juglar (about 10 years duration) and a shorter wave identified by Kitchins (40 months duration). The Kondratieff, Juglar and Kitchin waves are superimposed upon one another and interact with one another, according to Schumpeter.13 About 3 Kitchins and about 5 Juglars make a make a Juglar, Kondratieff. It is not the purpose of this article to argue the amplitudes, frequencies, accuracy, merits or demerits of business cycles; whether a given Kondratieff phase lasts 12 or 14 years is not important, we take the Kondratieff findings and predictions at face value. Treatments of the dynamics of the Kondratiefflong wave are given by Ray14 and also by Smith ’ 5 in recent issues of Long

A Tool for Exploring

133

New Technology

World of the Observer, Negentropy and Reason

mL4

World of Actual Entities, Events and Things

mL3

World of Physical Observation, and Energy

mL2

Entropy

World of Force, Gravitation

mL’

World of Electromagnetism

mLa

Figure 4. Space dimension

times mass

Range Planning.

Category

Grid Morphology

A fundamental research application of morphology, one which may have basic implications to management science, is suggested in the following. This morphology is predicated on a ‘nested worlds’ theory of reality as suggested by quantum mechanics.16 For example, the world of entropy and observable physics, (i.e. physical measurement) is nested or enfolded in the world of everyday business affairs and activities; this latter world is in turn nested in the world of the observer’s consciousness, the world of negentropy. Using the concept that the everyday world of commerce and public affairs is a bridge between the world of instrumentally measurable physical observation (i.e. physics) and the world of the observer (i.e. consciousness), the problem is posed to determine: (a) the fundamental environment,

types of workers in the business

(b) the fundamental types of issues relevant to business management during any Kondratieff cycle, (c) order of importance

relating

(a) to (b).

The first step is to unify the many commonly accepted physical categories with the metaphysical categories. For this purpose the dimensions ‘space’ and ‘time’ are singled out for use. Figure 4 shows the meaning given to the space dimension; Figure 5 shows the meaning given to the time or phase dimension. The morphological table depicted in Figure 6 is then constructed. The rows labelled mL”, mL’ and mL2 contain the customary physical

LT”

LT-’

Figure 5. Phase dimension

LT-2

LT-3

times L

categories. Maxwell’s category of electrical current is featured in the mL” row, Newton’s category of force is featured in the mL’ row and Einstein’s category of energy is featured in the mL2 row. The bottom three rows of the Category Grid can be viewed as a heuristic for the relationship of the physical categories (those which contain mass) to one another. The top three rows are the arena of much modern debate and development in science and philosophy: they pertain to the world of everyday human affairs and to the world of human consciousness and understanding. The rows labelled mL3 and mL4 are logical or analogical extensions of the preceding rows. The key speculative consideration is to allow process to signify a generalization of energy just as energy can be viewed as a generalization of force. This yields row mL3, which also corresponds to Aristotle’s four causes,16 translated into modern terms. In like manner, considering knowledge speculatively as a generalization ofprocess, the entries in the mL4 row are deduced. The process category bridges the world of energy and the world of knowledge while the energy category bridges Whitehead’s17 world of process and Newton’s world of force. In this categorial morphology, the horizontal axis represents the phase dimension [rates of change (derivatives) with respect to time]; the vertical axis represents the space dimension (integrals with

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Category Grid Morphology T-2

T-1

IN

1

mL4

mL3

F

mL2

nL’

mL”

Figure 6. Category (T) are categories

grid. Categories of description

of existence,

respect to distance multiplied by mass). The table is called the category grid because the resulting boxes represent the categories of existence. Rationalizing the derivation of each entry in the grid would take us too far afield and consume many pages. Accordingly, the reader is asked to consider the entries simply as definitions determined by their placement irr the grid relative to one another and by their row/column designations. It is not possible to define a category except in reference to other categories since they are fundamental constructs. If the reader disagrees with the label assigned to a particular category, she/he is free is to change it. The category, of course, stays put regardless of its label; that is the real point of morphology. Application ofCate,qory Grid to the Irlfbnation A,qe An important use of the category grid morphology (in addition to the application to society in Figure 6a) lies in its application to the information the Kondraticff epoch we are currently age, experiencing. This age began in the mid-1950s and will continue into the first decade of the next century. Figure 7 contains a morphology of the information age using the framework of categories prcsentcd in the top three rows of the category grid. The cntrics in the information age grid are examples of the information oriented counterparts of the general categories. If the category grid is seen, essentially, as a chart of the state to which the human brain and human thinking has evolved, and if the way the human brain has evolved accounts for the way business then the information age mortrends operate, to deduce the worker phology can be LWXI archetypes in business. It should be observed that

where

mass

(m),

space

operator

(L) and

time

operator

the human brain appears to have evolved to be able to handle the various derivatives with respect to according to Pribram,‘* who traces the time, workings of the brain to a form of optical processing such as holography. Because of the cyclical nature of time (time is the reciprocal of frequency) and because a derivative with respect to time is essentially a phase shift, there are only three derivatives with respect to time.” This establishes the important fact that four and only four columns are required in the category grid. O&e Worker Archetypes As seen in Figure 8, the office that correspond to the top row age grid are:

worker archetypes of the information

(a) Itrfjmatiorr Worker: involved in information media conversion, for example, voice-to-text, datato-image, filing, paper shuffling, etc. The information worker (e.g. a clerk, a bookkeeper, bookmaker or even an administrator) is involved primarily in rearranging information or converting the form of information rather than in making products or introducing new products, relationships or ideas, or in making decisions. (b) Skill I%70rker: involved in piecing things them apart according to together and taking established procedure and to meet predetermined needs. The skill worker (e.g. a technician, accountant. or engineer) is involved programmer, in making products which serve a LISC'~L~I purpose or providing services which have a defined market; the skill worker does not introduce new relations or make new decisions.

Morphology: Application cos

A Tool for Exploring

New Technology

of Category Grid to Societv Individuals

Government

Company Action Company Growth Technology

Personal Action Mental Growth Culture

Government Action Legislation (Re) election

Investments Sales

Investments Income

Taxes Transfer Payments

Industry

Business

135

DOE Information Knowledge mL4 Capital Product

Spending, Buying and Borrowing mL3 Drive Appliances and Machinery Transportation Distribution

Energy Power

:

mL*

Sustenance Comfort Physical Growth Travel Drive Appliances

Control Force Defence

Quality of Life

Government and Social Services

T-2

Figure 6a. Information, capital and energy. Major uses of the principal (DOE) by the principal components of society (COS). S ociety can be business, industry, individuals and government engaged in converting raw materials and capital (products, services, systems and wealth) into knowledge and waste products (c)Ktlo~r~ledge Worker: involved in establishing new relationships generally, but not always, according to accepted rules of logic. The knowledge worker (e.g. a design engineer, planner, economist, entrepreneur or inventor) is an innovator: she/he is responsible for originating the ideas for new products, new initiatives, new endeavors and new understanding.

Information TO

T-1

INFORMATION

T-s

determinants of the economy viewed as a composite of information, knowledge, energy, additional capital, information,

(d) Decision Maker: involved in choosing courses of action, usually with some (often short-term or politically motivated) benefit in mind. The decision maker (e.g. a banker, executive or a legislator) usually controls the levers of power in a company and in the economy generally but does not personally make anything or originate something new.

Age Grid T--2 KNOWLEDGE

ml4

mL3

WORK/ENERGY

mL2

Communication ommunications

Figure 7. Morphology

of the information

age using the top three rows of the category

grid

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Significant Business Management Recession

Prosperity

Depression

Phases of the Kondratieff Declining

High

Recovery

Business Cycle Increasing

Low

Level of Profit Margins, Production and Employment

Productivity

Innovation

Time Management Significant

Information Worker

Skill Worker

Information

Need/Feeling

Management by Objectives

Issues/Techniques

Knowledge Worker

Decision Maker

Office Worker Archetypes

information

Figure 8. Most categories

important

Kondratieff Long Category Grid

issues

Wave

implied

by phases

and the

The Kondratieff phases of prosperity, recession, depression and recovery, and the information age grid, from which one can deduce the worker archetypes, jbintly imply the most significant business management issues as a function of calendar time. Since the Kondratieff morphology is dynamic and periodic (time is the subject of analysis) and the category grid and information age grid morphologies are static and categorial (they abstract over time), it is highly instructive that they support similar conclusions regarding a phase relationship between types of workers, types of issues and phases of the economy. Ecorzomic Phase us Issues us Ofjce Worker Archetypes It must be emphasized that, at all times, every office worker archetype is important and all the business management issues are important; nevertheless, the relativity in the degree of importance can be determined by the Kondratieff phase in which the economy finds itself. Again, refer to Figure 8. (a) Prosperity, Productivity and the Information Worker. During time of general economic prosperity, the information worker is relatively the most important single worker type and productivity is the most important single management issue to management experiencing the period of prosperity. Productivity is a particularly important issue/goal when there is a lively market for one’s products/services. During times of prosperity, getting funds to and from the bank is often seen as the most urgent business priority. This too is a form

Intention

Knowledge/Ideas Age Categories

of the long

wave

and by the information

of information work. generally, is a question speeds.

Productivity, of information

age

in the office and transfer

(b) Recession, Time Manqyemerlt and the Skill Worker. During times of recession, however, when insolvency may lurk around the corner, the skilled worker takes on added significance as he shores up companies cognizant of an eroding economic base. Correspondingly, time management, i.e. efficiency in the use of labour time, is perceived by management to be the most important management issue: not a moment to be wasted! Conserving one’s own time is a question of skill and talent; otherwise, one wastes other peoples’ time in trying to preserve their own. (c) Depression, Itmovation and the Kttowle4qe Worker. But as Kondratieff has prophesied, and as Mensch has so brilliantly explained using arguments relating to stagflation and technological stalemate, the slide into a depression economy cannot be avoided entirely. During this period the talents of the knowledge worker, formerly kept out of sight in some obscure R & D project, are actually sought after. She/he alone can establish new relationships, or understanding and identify genuinely new opportunities. At this point it may merely be a matter of taking product or service ideas or prototypes from the shelf and moving them into the limelight. In these times of real economic crisis, the most significant management issue is innovsomething which may be discouraged ation, during times of prosperity or even during recession. Existing products and services which have already flooded the market are now taken for granted, profit margins continue to dwindle, most of the traditional investment opportunities become un-

Morphology:

A Tool

for Exploring

New

137

Technology

promising. As Mensch explains, innovation is the only route out of a technology stalemate, which is what a depression really is.’ Innovation is a question of knowledge, insight, intelligence, courage, inspiration and luck.

(Cl) Reading Colt4rrtn 1. With regard to the productivity issue, the IW, SW, KW and DM arc the worker archetypes in order of importance.

(d) Recovery, Marqement by Objectives and the Decision Maker. As innovative new thrusts, products and services gradually achieve implementation, recognition and acceptance, the decision maker once more comes into his own: there are a thousand and one decisions to be made, almost as many ways to go wrong. Cool headed navigation of the recovery phase (up river all the way) is standardization and proceduralization needed; become important once again. Management by objectives, i.e. clearly defining goals and direction, becomes the most significant single issue. MB0 is a question of instinct, judgment, decisiveness and leadership.

Summary

Economic Phases A phase is an extended period of time with characteristics; four phases make a cycle. Prosperity production.

Phase.

High

Depression production.

Phase.

Recovery Phase. production.

Productivity wastefulness; productivity

1

2

employment

and

profits,

employment

and

Rising

profits,

employment

and

systemic

Issue. Productivity is an alternative to maximize outputs divided by inputs; (or efficiency) is an information issue.

Time Management Issue. Time flies; time is money, not a moment to be wasted; time management is a skill issue. Znnovation Issue. Innovation is an alternative to tradition; initiate new products, services and relationships; basic innovation is a knowledge issue whereas improvement innovation may be a knowledge or skill issue. Management

by Objectives

Innovation

Management by Objective

4

3

2

1

(MBO).

Clearly

define

I

Time Management

4

I

I

profits,

and

Low

ISSUE Productivity

similar

employment

Management Issues An issue is a perceived problem, possibly in origin, which is of pressing concern.

(Rl) Readirlg Rot-11 1. During a period of economic prosperity, the information worker is the most important archetype while productivity is the most important management issue; at the same time, and time management by objectives, innovation of management are remaining issues in order importance.

ARCHETYPE

profits,

Recession Phase. Declining production.

In the foregoing, the technique of morphology was used to relate Kondratieff economic phases to and to worker issues business management archetypes. But these were only the most important relationships. The general case is depicted in Figure 9. Using the technique of morphology one last time, here the diagonal of the chart contains all the information of Figure 8. We have not only the most important relationships, but all of the relationships between phases, issues and archetypes; and the order of their importance is suggested. Example interpretation of Figure 9 for row 1 and for column 1:

I

of Definitions

ECONOMIC PHASE Prosperity (Rl)

3

Recession

I

I

(R2)

3

2

1

4

Depression (R3)

4

3

2

1

Recovery (R4)

(Cl)

(C2)

(C3)

(C4)

I

I

I

Decision Maker

Figure 9. General case. Economic important, 4 = least important

phases

vs management

issues

vs worker

archetypes.

Legend:

1 =most

138

Long

Range

Planning

objectives and direction; what one intends to do. Oj$ce Worker An archetype

Involved

Skill Worker. apart.

things

Puts

Knowledge Worker. and understanding. Decision manages.

Maker.

Innovation Novelty. A breakthrough; improvement

MB0

Archetypes is a pure type,

Znjbrmatior~ Worker.

together

Determines

June of

a real person.

in media

Establishes

17

is a question

not

or takes

new

by analog

or digital

them

relationships

courses

of

action,

with the structure dimensions to form

signals;

sense-data.

Knowledge insight, Meaning, facts, ideas, awareness, beliefs, understanding and relationship; cantly meaningful information.

news, signifi-

Technology Commercializable to new products

leading

knowledge; and services.

Category A set of maximum understanding.

generality;

techniques

pure

concepts

Entropy The tendency

towards

maximum

disorder.

Ne‘qen trop y The tendency

towards

maximum

order.

What

Ptrre Reasotl. Kant pointed out that knowledge was arrived at via the human senses, feelings and reason and was therefore categorically distinct from information signals, sense-data or their content. (Kant’s space and time forms of thought are the basis of the axes of the category grid, Figure 6.) Equating knowledge and information has the effect of equating people with machines and, consequently, human labour dollars with machine purchase dollars. Traditionally, accountants have prided themselves on their uncanny ability to reduce all things to the same dollars and cents; we are in an epoch, however, where this may be a luxury that an economy can ill afford. To do this one must assume that humans do not think or that machines can. Separating the concepts of information and knowledge, however, leads to an understanding of the generic distinction between information work/workers and knowledge work/workers and a more balanced approach to the needs of a corporation which values the contribution of people and not only as operators of machines (i.e. computers). Computers, telecommunications and data bases are information tools whereas human brains, languages and morphology are knowledge tools. Productivity vs Innovatiofz When the term ‘productivity’ changeably with the term corporate salvation, considerable

is used ‘profitability’, confusion

interi.e. arises.

Also, avoid confusing productivity, i.e. the ratio of outputs to inputs, and innovation, i.e. novelty, which has nothing to do with ratios and cannot be so measured. When they are equated, basic innovation is virtually impossible; at best, only improvement innovation is permitted; long-term corporate decline or stagnation is likely. of

is to be Done?

The corporate decision maker point, what precisely is expected are only a few suggestions.

1984

conversion.

basic innovation is a fundamental most innovations are of the variety and not basic.

Morphology A knowledge tool for working of a problem using one or more a grid or box of boxes. Information Embodied

Vol.

may ask, at this ofhim? Following

Iujbrmation vs Knowledye Avoid equating knowledge (i.e. significantly meaningful information) with its representation (i.e. information signals or information media). The German philosopher .Immanuel Kant” is supposed to have cleared up this still prevalent confusion two centuries ago with his Critique of

Morphology itself may not be new; its deliberate use to generate novelty, however, probably is relatively recent. In the context of encouraging innovation, when appropriate, utilize the technique of morphology and other innovation techniques not spelled out here to lend depth, breadth, rigour and flexibility to the identification and solution of problems and the generation of new ideas and initiatives. Strategy vx Predictiorl Single issue strategies are sometimes useful if, happily, the correct issue is chosen. Realistically assess the Kondratieff economic phase in which the corporation finds itself and give strongest emphasis to those issues most relevant to the applicable phase. There is the tendency to emphasize issues relevant to a previous phase since those are the one which, experience shows, are likely to most readily win higher management’s support. Distinguish

between

the

strategy

phase

and

the

Morphology: of corporate programming. prediction phase Although strategy and prediction must take each other into account, neither should be allowed to drive the other. In particular, strategy is ‘intentional’ or wilful whereas prediction is guided by knowledge, awareness and understanding of internal and external environments and processes. The decision maker who tries to perform prediction is apt to confuse political expediency with real need. Worker Archetypes ‘labour vs management’ The industrial age dichotomy has probably outlived its usefulness; its place we substitute four ‘worker archetypes’.

in

Encourage and expect all worker archetypes to exploit their full capabilities; the tendency of one archetype to subdue another rather than to work in a spirit of cooperation and harmony results in a distortion in the overall make-up of the corporation. For example, it can become overly bureaucratic if the decision maker or information worker dominates, or it can become overly academic or experimental if the knowledge worker or skill worker predominates. Demand vs Supply There is a tendency for companies and decision makers to over-emphasize supply side economies and strategies and underplay the demand side. This comes from the desire, on the part of every company, to minimize its own demands and purchases/expenditures and maximize what it sells or supplies to others, i.e. to be productive. In this way, products and services are generated in quantities for which there may be an ill defined or non-existent demand. A morphology of market opportunities and real user needs could give a better perspective of what is needed as opposed to what is intended by the company, and the interrelationships of those needs, thereby avoiding the pitfalls of over supply.

A Tool

for Exploring

New

Technology

139

question, but one can only speculate. The material in this paper tends to support the thesis (offered by Mensch) that the wave has something to do with the generation gap, not with the availability of innovations per se. Decision makers unable to appreciate the inevitability of recessions and depressions may unwittingly obstruct or cvcn suppress basic or improvement innovation, thereby accentuating their severity. New ideas tend to characterize younger generations whereas the preservation of tradition tend to characterize the older portion of the population which, more or less, dominates decision making. An alternative explanation is that the movement from one epoch to the next is driven by new cheap and abundant forms of energy coming into general use and favour.20 However, energy dependence does seem to be giving way, slowly, to information dependence, which is what the information age is all about. In this essay we have suggested adding a ‘category grid’ morphology to the existing list of fundamental morphologies and have demonstrated its application to the current information age and to business management. This list already includes fundamental discoveries (or inventions) such as the periodic table of chemical elements, the quark model of hadrons, the genetic code and the Kondratieff long wave business cycle. The validity of the first and third in this list is no longer in doubt while the jury is still out on the second and fourth. As far as the category grid morphology is concerned, the trial has yet to begin. But morphology is not limited in its application to only fundamental questions, as is evidenced by the recently published Bartha, Randolph and Shurig morphologies. In the current information age and in subsequent ages the morphology approach to innovation will be utilized to help solve problems of an interdisciplinary nature, introduce new ideas, uncover more of Nature’s secrets, identify frontiers and found industries.

Conclusion The road to long term economic recovery is a return to general prosperity, but do not expect it to last indefinitely. Demands for productivity (i.e. efficiency) improvement and opposition to innovation will try to prolong hard won gains. But the roller coaster ride continues. Productivity improvement can. in fact, be counterproductive when there is a declining market for that which one produces. Innovation, originality and ingenuity, often discouraged during times of prosperity and recession will mevitably be called upon to help escape the return of economic hard times. Why Both

should there be a Kondratiefflong Schumpeter and Mcnsch tried

wave at all? to answer this

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