Multiattribute decision analysis of desalination plant engineering management options with applications to Saudi Arabia

Desalination, 28 (1979) 253-282 0 Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam - Printed in ‘I%e Netherlands

MULTIATTRHWTE DECISION ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT SAUDI ARABIA

A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH* *University

of Riyadh,

**Engineering Research Ames. Iowa [USA)

ANALYSIS OPTIONS

OF DESALINATION PLANT WITH APPLICATIONS TO

AND A. A. HUSSEINY** Riyadh

(Saudi Arabia)

Institute,

Zowa State

University and Science

A~plZcatio~,

inc.,

(Received February 19.1979)

SUMMARY

A quantitative approach based on decision and utility theories is applied to the selection of engineering management strategies for the operation of desalination plants. The method is powerful in dealing with multiobjective decisions and in accommodating for preferences of decision-makers. The analysis could be influenced by subjective valuation of attributes; however, thorough consideration of all the factors affecting the decision, both qualitatively and quantitatively is possible. As a demonstration of the methodology, analysis is made of the management policies of desalination plants in Saudi Arabia. The options in this case include reliance upon expatriates, indigent personne1, computer and automation or a mix between such alternate strategies. Qualitative investigation shows that shortage in properly trained manpower in developing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and the associated eagerness for development have made reliance on foreign expertise inevitable, However, foreign experts face several difficulties which often result in discouraging competent personnel especially those with management experience from being activeiy engaged in management of desalination plants. The host country often suffers in implementing large desalination projects, because of the inferior quality of available personnel, the lack of dedication and the temporariness of the nature of jobs held by foreigners including management positions. Participation of indigent personnel in management of large desalination plants may increase the opportunity of success; however, this is often done prematurely leading to setbacks in the execution of those projects. Intuitively, a mix between foreign and local experts and the use of computers and management strategies requiring minimum number of personnel seems

254

A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH

AND

A. A. HUSSEINY

to provide a large potential of success. However, proper selection and supervision of foreign experts is necessary. Such option requires the simultaneous development of adequate data and information banks. Use of quantitative decision analysis shows that extensive use of computers with minimum utilization of indigent personnel is the most preferred option. The second preference is the dependence on indigent personnel with extensive foreign training_ Rank order of other options is also given.

INTRODUCTION

Making decisions is an important and integral part of planning and management of large projects. Often, engineering management decisions must be made on several choices without exactly knowing the outcome. This is especially true in long-term planning which involves many unforeseen factors and variable parameters. Generally, accommodation for future development and uncertainties is necessary in the analysis of most decision problems [l---5]. In fact, whenever there are many uncertainties which may affect the views of the decision maker, decision theory offers a procedure for systematic analysis of problems in a rational manner designed to improve the decision-making process [6]. This can be done by breaking up complex decision problems into a number of relatively smaller problems so that the quantification of the decision makers’ preferences and judgement can be introduced_ Smith [ 71 has introduced the fundamentals of the decision theory through a presentation of a comprehensive problem and Spetzler and Zamora [ 81 gave the basic roles for analysis of decision alternatives and for decision analysis cycles. The first stage in setting up a structure for decision-making is to express the outcome of any decision by a numerical value. This is what is known as the “utility theory” which has been developed by Lute and Raiffa [ 11. The utility theory is a mathematical theory in which one attempts to measure the attitudes of the people or their preferences toward multiple objectives by means of numerical utility functions [ 93 _ This can be done by expressing the utility function in terms of monetized attributes [lo] or intangibles [ 111. The fundamental difference between utility and probability is that utility reflects the individual’s evaluation and experience in a deterministic fashion, while the probability is an objective property of random events, verifiable by statistical experiments. One of the very important steps in applying the utility theory is to draw a learning curve. The slope of this learning curve depends on the previous experience and people’s attitude toward certain factors [12, 131. The validity of the results will depend on the accuracy of prediction of the people’s attitude and on the goodness of expectation of future results. Although decision theory is that procedure which accounts for all avail-

DECISION

ANALYSIS

OF DESALJNATION

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255

abIe information to give us the best possible logical decision, the usefulness of the decision analysis is limited by the lack of analytical procedures for systematically assessing utilities for m~tidimension~ functions. However, this is not a weakness of the decision theory but a current limitation on its implementation [6] _ The subjective nature of the utility functions or preferences is IikeIy to vary with time and circumstances. However, the approach is expected to Iead to good decisions, which are not necessarily the same as good outcomes [ 141. In this paper the application of the multiattribute utility theory to decisions on the se&s&ion of viable strategies of management of new desalination plants where the decision-maker is faced with various uncertainties. The approach is applied in a case study of desalination plant management in Saudi Arabia. The case study involves situations similar to those encountered in managing large projects in other developing countries. The distinctive feature in the case of Saudi Arabia is an abundance of financial resources associated with extreme shortage in technical manpower including engineering management personnel. The transfer of knowledge in the field of water resources from developed countries to developing countries involves the use of foreign technical consultants and experts. A developing country can utilize the efficacious expertise of those specialists particularly if the indigent workers have the opportunity to gain experience through their close association with those experts. In the specific situation of desalination plant management, the dependence on imported experts from developed countries is indispensable at the early stages. Shortage of experienced manpower may require extensive use of foreign ski& especially in planning and management_ Excessive employment of alien personnel has several advantages, as well as drawbacks. Obviously, foreign skills are likely to help a developing country, such as Saudi Arabia,

in adopting modern technologies by accelerating the development to meet the rising demand for water. Furthermore, participation of trained personnel from deveioped countries in design, construction and operation of large desalination projects in devefoping countries is likely to guarantee a relatively high level of safety, productivity and quality assurance_ In this situation, the developed local industry will be similar to an imported vending machine which is conveniently located near the customer or to a warehouse of imported goods. If the developing country is interested in adapting modem technology to build or advance local industries, the excessive use of foreign experts is likely to be associated with various complications. Many of the problems result from unexpected or unanticipated hardships facing foreign personnel in the host country_ The attitude of both indigent and foreign skills towards each other and towards the personaI interest of each other could be that of suspicion and hostility. Complications may result from difference in cultural

A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH

256

AND A. A. HUSSEINY

background and may be indirectly caused by the attitude of people in developed countries towards the transfer of technology to developing countries. The different attributes of using foreign experts in decision-making managerial positions, especially in large water and desalination projects in develop of using ing countries are analyzed here. For contrast, the effectiveness indigent personnel and/or highly automated and computerized systems are also considered.

THEORY

The two major theoretical approaches to multiattribute assessment are the theory of conjoint [15-171, and the multiattribute expected utility theory [4, 6, l&-21] _ The theory of conjoint simultaneously constructs the overall and single attribute utility functions [22] and the conjoint measurement in its additive form can be represented by U(XI,X2,---,Xjr---,3C,)

=

it,

ui(Xi)

(1)

wherexiisthestateoftheoutcomeofX=(Xi,3t~,...,~~,...,X,)inthe ith attribute; ui is the utility function over the states of the ith attribute; and U is the overall utility function. The conjoint measurement representation is suitable for use by decision makers in case of riskless decisions, however, it cannot be necessarily used in the case of risky decisions. For decisions under risk (uncertainty), the multiattribute expected utility theory will be useful. The additive expected utility representation is of the form [22] U(XI,X2,e--,Xjr---,

xm)

=

FPj i=l

fUi(Xij)

(2)

i=l

x, ) is a risky option for which the multiwhereX=(xl,xz ,..., ;si ,..., attribute outcome Xj is received if event Ej OCCURS; Pi is the probability of the event Ej ; xii is the state of the ith attribute of outcome Xi ; ui is the utility function over the ith attribute; and U is the expected utility function for the risky alternative X. Keeney [4, 231 has shown that, if xii is preferentially independent of xii for all ii and if Xi is utility independent of xi for all i, then U(x, , x2, _ . _ , Xj, e _ f, x, ) is either an additive or a multiplicative function of the utility function, Ui (xi). Here the bar is used to refer to conjugate outcomes; that is xii is all possible outcomes in the set {Xii ) except Xii. The additive utility function is the most common approach for evaluating multidimensional consequences in the case of decision problems involving uncertainty [241_ Debreu 1251 has shown that the utility function may be written as

DECISION

ANALYSIS

U(x) = F[ur(x,

OF DESALINATION

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(3)

1, uz(xz 1, - - - , %(&I 1

if each sector is separable, and that at least three sectors are essential. In n dimensions, the utility function can be written in the form given in Eq. (1)

[24,26]. The main advantage of the utility function is its relative simplicity since the assessment of n-dimensional utility functions can be reduced to the assessment of n one-dimensional utility functions. Adequate systematic procedures do exist for assessing one-dimensional utility functions [2]. The main limitation on this method is the difficulty in knowing whether the assumptions are reasonable in a specific real problem. This difficulty arises because these assumptions reflect personal preferences of the decisionmakers which may be biased towards specific decisions. Raiffa [21] and Keeney [6, 271 shows that two-dimensional utility functions in certain cases could be evaluated from U(X,Y)

(4)

= &(%I + UY(Y) + kuX(x)u,(Y)

where k is an empirically evaluated constant. Similarly, the utility functions with three-attributes has been derived by Keeney [24] and is given below U(YlrY2,Y3)

=

h, +

+k,u,(y,)+k,u,(y,)+k,u,(y3) k,u,

(y,

+

N2b2)

+k,+(Yz)%(Y3)

ksU1

(y,

W3b3)

+ k,u,(Y,

)&(Y2)u3(Y3)-

(5)

For more than three attributes, the exact form of the utility function U, scaled from zero to one, is given by [ 231 n - - - , X,

U(X*,X2r

)

=

is,

kiui

(Xi)

+

K

i i=l

+ +

K2

$,

. ..+K”-‘k

Z

hihjui(xi)uj(xj)

j>i

jFt C kikjkm ui (xi) uj (xj 1urn(xm 1 .

m>j

k k 3---

12

knu,(x,)u2(X2)---U”(X,) (6)

where Ui is a utility function over Xi scaled from zero to one; ki is a scaling factor for Ui which must he in the range from zero to one; and K is another scaling factor. Keeney [ 231 showed that when Ciki = 1, then K = 0 and when Cki # 1, then K # 0. If K = 0 then Eq. (6) reduces to the additive form WXI,X2,...,X”)

and if

=

ifI,

hi”i

twi)

K f 0, Eq. (6) reduces to the multiplicative

(7)

form [4, 23, 281

A. F. ABDUL-FAnAH AND A. A. HUSSEINY

258

lfK17(x,,x,,...,

X, ) = iQi 11 + Kk,Ui(Xi)f -

(81

Thus, the additive form can be considered as a limiting case of the multiplicative utility [ 23]_ In Eq. (8), U and Ui are utility functions scaled from zero to one, and ki are scaling constants with 0 < ki < 1. And K > -1 is a nonzero scaling constant. When K s positive, then one may define u*(x)

= 1+

(9)

KU(x)

and ui*(xi) E 1 + KkiUi(Xi) which are utility functions over the appropriate domains and which are related by n

u*(x) = gk

ui*w

(11)

When K is negative, then u*(x)

= -

[KU(r)

+ l]

(12)

and (13) are utility functions over x and xi, respectively, and -

V*(X) = (-1)”

STATEMENT

(@, Ui*(Xi)*

(14)

OF THE PROBLEM

Success of large desalination projects in developing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, greatly depends on the system of engineering management employed in the project and in operation of desalination plants. Many projects have failed leading to loss in investment and to setbacks in achieving specific national goals of supplying water demand due to the lack of sound management procedures_ The selection of management personnel also has a great impact on the progress in execution of each stage of a desalination project. The scarcity of technical manpower forces the developing countries to rely upon importing foreign experts. This choice is often costly in finance and productivity due to many factors. Some of these factors are the unfamiliarity with the local language and possibly with the language of other

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coworkers; the living difficulties, the inability to accept alien cultures and customs, the lack of incentive for dedication and the transient nature of the participation of foreign personnel. Frequently, technical experts attempt to enforce alien techniques and policies of management which are not compatible with the developing nation. On the other hand, complete dependence on

indigent personnel in engineering management of large desalination plants and/or projects has several drawbacks in addition to the shortage in qualified persons who have the adequate training and knowledge. In many developing countries experience in engineering management is lacking especially in the case of large projects, In countries like Saudi Arabia technical personnel change jobs in very short tie due to the rapid change in the economic structure. Usually, experience abroad is not satisfactory to carry the responsibility in the native environment. In some situations, combination of indigent and foreign experts in management of some of the projects i~1Saudia Arabia has

resulted in an astonishing success; an example is the King Faisal Speciality Hospital in Riyadh which is rated as one of the top leading medical research centers in the world. Recently, there is a progressive trend towards mechanization, automation and simulation_ Use of tested management schemes and computer codes in decision-making and in many of the management tasks has increased in popularity in developing countries. This strategy tends to minimize the need for skills whether local or foreign. Currently, simulators and computer packages are extensively used in engineering management of several successful

projects in Saudi Arabia. Recently, Abdul-Fattah and Husseiny [ 291 developed a management system for dual-purpose nuclear desalination plants for Saudi Arabia. The system was based on the utilization of a mix between foreign experts, automation and indigent personnel. Nevertheless, the system involved an overall management scheme of nuclear energy and desalination activities as well as plant operation. Considering the management of desalination plants in general regardless of the energy source more detailed analysis of the alternate management schemes are addressed here, To demonstrate the viability of the analytical methodology introduced here both qualitative and quantitative analysis are used, According to the above discussion, five alternative strategies for management can be suggested; namely the use of

I foreign experts only;

II III IV V

extensive use of computers

with minimum

indigent personnel;

mixture between experts and computers; indigent personnel with foreign training; or experts phased out with trained locals.

Actually, some of these alternate strategies may require longer waiting time and preparation to start a given project than others.

260 QUALITATIVE

A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH

AND A. A. HUSSEINY

ANALYSIS

There is no formal methodology for qualitative decision analysis. However, the most common and rational approach is to assess potential risks characteristic of each option. A balance sheet may be formed of the risk/ benefit tradeoffs and personal weights provided to measure the balance between the credits/debits of each alternative. The procedure is simple if the strategies do not involve a mix between partial options as in the present situation (Strategies II, III and V). Here, the risks involved with three strategies are analyzed; namely use of foreign experts, indigent personnel, and computers and automation. Foreign experts Time factor The expected time scale for planning and exectition of the construction and operation of a desalination plant is unlikely to allow for adjustment periods for the foreign experts involved in the project. Usually, in developing countries, decisions are not made on projects which are greatly needed before the demand turns into chaos. In most situations, no planning ahead is made because all efforts are devoted to meet demands which have already been accumulated in the past years [30] . Meanwhile, foreign workers and experts cannot actively and properly contribute to desalination projects without getting acquainted with local conditions_ This problem can be handled by mutual participation of local decision-makers and foreign experts in the planning phase to select proper methods of interface between foreign and indigent workers and to decide on the right schedule for the project. Dedication Some experts are not seriously interested in foreign assignments and often their performance outside their home countries does not have any implications on their career. Their interest is rather in capital gain, travel thrills, or in seeing different countries_ Experts of this type always try to get as many paid vacations as they can paying as little attention as possible to their work. In extreme situations, an expert may feel that his mission in a developing country is to hinder the flow of development in a specific direction in that country. This may be caused by national fanaticism and the ulterior motive to keep the host country permanently behind in the march towards industrialization. Often, there is the desire to promote other alternatives to the progressing projects for further personal gain or for the interest of other groups to whom the expert may have deep commitments. The fact that such extremities are not uncommon has resulted in the rejection of many developing countries to the role of foreign experts. However, this way may assure

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productivity, provide adequate experience to local engineers, and minimize the dependence upon foreign assistance. Appropriate screening of foreign experts may be helpful in selecting dedicated personnel. Some principle qualifications which may be used as selection criteria include 130,311: competence and experience in their technological specialties; cognizance, and appreciation of the contributions of other experts; willingness to exert the energies required to attain the goals even under difficult conditions: patience, and sensitivity to the desires and objectives of the host country and to the regional and national goals; imagination and the ability of the expert and his family to adapt to a different environment. Alien techniques

Most foreign experts tend to transfer the same techniques, which were successfully used in their home countries to developing countries without accommodating for differences in the social and economic structure. This is because of unf~~i~ity or unavailability of specific information about local conditions or due to their limited experience. Lack of seriousness of some foreign workers may result in application of inferior techniques and faulty decisions since they have no concern for the outcome. In many occasions, foreign experts undermine the intellectual ability of local personnel and provide guaranteed-to-fail plans to assure delays in development in certain areas and to maximize their profit. Such situations can be avoided by encouraging close cooperation between local and foreign experts and workers in all phases of a given project. This will allow the locals to gain experience and learn how to handle generic problems in a way compatible with the situation. Also, indigent personnel may act as a feedback mechanism to familiarize the experts with local conditions and structure so that realistic approaches can be devised. Living difficulties

Some experts may choose not to continue their work and others may be forced to go back to their countries because of local living and social difficulties; such as housing, poor communication, etc. These difficulties can be eased by establishing a special organization to provide foreign experts with possible services and facilities; such as housing, transportation, health, education for their children, and adequate communication systems with their home countries. in fact the aforementioned difficulties have been resolved in the management of the Specialties Hospital in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia. The hospital operation is more than adequate and the research and development efforts have been greatly organized in a productive way in the different fields of specialties. The selection scheme of experts and the facilities provided for

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A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH

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them have made the hospital a model for any other sector including possible future large desalination projects.

in the country,

Cultural and language barriers Many experts accept foreign assignments while retaining their “small town” prejudices and without being interested in interaction with other communities or cultures. The cultural gap is likely to be widened when such experts live in an entirely different environment wherein they have to cope with local customs, beliefs, and spoken language. Teaching the local language to foreign experts and their families may not only help them in their technical services, but will also help them to communicate with the host society. In fact, many American families have reported that they have enjoyed a comfortable life in Saudi Arabia after they learned the language [32].

Public attitude The tendency of foreign personnel to live in exclusion, and the fact that the society in most developing countries is conservative or “old fashioned”, has increased the social and cultural gap between both sides. This, in addition to other socio-political and economical factors, such as concern about foreign domination, have often created public resentment and mutual mistrust between the locals and the foreigner, as a stranger to the community. Some of the people often consider the foreigner as an opportunist who is trying to esploit them and drain their resources_ A local individual probably feels that the contribution of the experts is useless or that they are depriving him from further recognition or promotion. Other facets of the public attitude towards foreign management personnel appears in their opposition to industries completely controlled by outsiders, and concern about economic loss caused by international politics. Hience large engineering projects will be regarded with reservation since they are expected to be dependent for a long time on developed countries for personnel, repairs, maintenance, operation and supply of spare parts. If, in addition, foreign management took over such projects, the extent of foreign control is likely to be exaggerated. Such management is expected to increase the dependence on foreign sources especially in acquisition of information and spare parts, Abdul-Hassanat [33f expressed the public concern in Bangladesh in regards to availability of spare parts by pointing out potential difficulties which may arise due to shortages. Those include price control by suppliers, the need for large inventories and possible interruption of supply of parts for discontinued models. Foreign personnel, if put in charge of the large projects are likely to benefit in most of the cases.

Unavailability of information resources In the case when large projects are not contracted to big companies, the foreign experts will be confronted with problems of shortage in facilities for transfer of desalination technology. Those problems are likely to affect the

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productivity of the foreign, as well as the indigent management personnel. Delays in information acquisition and the lack of supporting industry will nullify any expected gain from foreign expertise.

Indigent management Lack

personnel

of experience

Unfortunately, in most of the developing economies, engineers lack field training, especially in the area of quality assurance and control. Although most of the engineers in those countries have acquired high levels of engineering and technological education, they often linger behind their peers in developed economies. This is attributed to the fact that engineers in developed countries start their careers working under the supervision of experienced professionals in purely engineering, design end procurement tasks. In contrast, engineers in developing countries are entirely involved in administrative work, Their first assignments usually include powerIess supervision of projects under very rigid rules. Moreover, in developing countries, most of the actual designs and execution plans are done by large foreign companies which do not provide fair opportunity for the indigent engineers to participate in the design or planning stage. The local engineers and scientists should participate with foreign company personnel during the design stages of a desalination plant and should also have complete design and operation documentation to be able to do any future design modifications.

Attitude towards technology The attitude of the public in developing countries towards Iocal

industrial

expansion is born by challenges of development and by the notion that the strength of a small country can be greatly increased by participation in advanced technological programs. Aggressiveness end ~derestim~tion of the time element involved in the acquisition of new large projects could result in setbacks in the water technology transfer process. Attitude

towards

industrial

regulations

and scheduling

Technical and management personnel in developing countries are accustomed to regulation bending, in the sense of imposing bureaucratic roles to strengthen and widen the scope of their authority. Enforcing or abiding by industrial safety regulations, schedules, quality assurance and productivity programs in local industries is hardly practiced and is often regarded as a hindrance to fast growth. In fact, in many of the developing countries, slogans of equality, social justice and democracy have been taken out of context. Hence, confusion between class structure and management structure have resulted in resentment towards regulation and technical authorities. This phenomenon is weli

A. F. ABDLJL-FATTAH AND A. A. HUSSEINY

264

handled by proper understanding of its nature. Basically, it is a contemporary social change which is associated with evolution from rural and/or nomadic environment to industrial social structure. Several investigators tend to deal with this problem as part of the cultural background, and hence, unworkable solutions have often been suggested. A viable approach towards resolving attitude differences towards regulations is to provide a system of public information and to carry the development projects gradually. Also, management personnel must become aware of the implications of enforcing regulations, and systematic and precise execution of production and quality assurance programs, especially in large water projects_ To assure compatibility of industrial regulations and programs with the local situation in a given country, a group of experts from that country may set the rules and procedures_ The group should act independent of the authorities involved in project execution, purchases and operation to assure objectivity. Enforcing schedules, regulations or standards must be handled by indigent personnel. Foreign experts may be consulted in resolving generic problems. This approach will guarantee satisfaction of the local worker in charge of the project. The universities can play a significant role in developing productive and high quality industries in the country through: teaching, research, and the elementary training in the college’s laboratories. Attitude

towards quality assurance

In several countries the absence of competitive markets or industries, and the fact that the desire to expand is not supplemented by well-thought plans have placed emphasis on quantity rather than quality of products. This has led to the deterioration of workmanship and the negligence of proficient quality assurance program. Also, the absence of heavy and precision industries and the lack of experience in industrial and engineering management of large projects has caused a deficiency in perceiving the value of maintenance and high operation standards. Consequently, local management personnel are expected to undermine the role of quality assurance in the design, construction, production and execution of large projects, unless they acquire the necessary training and experience to comprehend the necessity for strong quality assurance programs. Centralization of authorities in one group is a general practice in all industrial activities in many developing countries. Although this system has functioned efficiently in presence of small industrial activities, such a system is not adequate in large engineering projects. Formation of an independent quality assurance group is deemed necessary. Specific authorities must be delegated to the group which reports to the manager of the project. This would eliminate a state of diffused responsibilities and would help pin-point flows in execution of quality assurance procedures. Such a management system has been tested in developed countries and is found to be more reliable than combining quality control with other activities in the project

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which is the present practice in many developing countries. To insure high quality assurance measures in the management of large water projects in developing countries, emphasis must be placed on quality and safety training of the personnel involved. Training in quality control must be enforced in all activities, especially those associated with industries which require precision and high quality workmanship. Control authorities may stimulate the interest of workers in quality through rewards and national slogans. This type of motivation should also include supefvisors, auditors and engineers. In addition, adequate selection of personnel will increase the efficiency of training and transfer of technology. Some requirements should be used as the basis of selection 1341; for example, age; technical, general or specialized knowledge; industrial experience; ability to handle technological and operational complexity; physical activity and environmental aggressiveness; operational responsibility; safety awareness; capacity for being self-sufficient in work; ability to cooperate in work relationships; good sense in exercising authority; and general efficiency and productivity, especially rapidity and accuracy in work. Public attitude Due to the rapid changes in the social structure in many developing countries, fear exists of the outcome of establishing a new elite as a result of expanding heavily in one technological sector which requires special training and high levels of sophistication. Thus, in many situations, the public is often inclined to favor a policy in which indigent personnel are involved in governmental and small business activities. Large water projects would be left to foreign firms and experts who are expected to provide their services with minimum disturbance to the social structure, as long as their activities are confiied to particular locations. Shortage of in formation resources The problem of data and information availability does prevail whether

foreign or indigent personnel are in charge of large engineering projects. The need for re!iable resources would be more urgent with the use of local experts. Some of the difficulties at the present time are the unavailability of computerized information retrieval system; of selective information dissemination systems; and of specialist libraries which contain updated indexing reports, abstract bulletins and bibliographies. There is also the lack of scientific agencies to provide specialists who work in knowledge transfer and in translation from foreign languages to native languages. Currently, the technical information for scientists, engineers, and technicians is not adequate if at all available. Furthermore, many developing countries are deprived of research facilities and have no access to acquisition of machinery, equipment and tools. If some equipment is available like copying services and microfilms, maintenance is still a problem.

266

A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH

AND A. A. HUSSEINY

Automation and computer systems Some developing countries are rather unique in the lack of human capital associated with an excess of available finance. Thus, the demand on skilled personnel can be reduced by the introduction of computer programs in forecasting, planning and management. Currently, most branches of the industry rely upon standard computer codes in design, management and cost analysis. Several computer programs have been developed for forecasting, decision analysis and engineering management. The use of computer programs and computerized systems will allow the developing countries to adapt modem technologies and updated procedures with minimum skills whether local or foreign. However, the main drawback is the complete dependence on the foreign market in providing computers, accessories, spare parts and maintenance_ This will increase the difficulty associated with the supply of equipment and spare parts for the projects. Generalobservations

The hardships which face foreign experts in developing countries have led to difficulty in recruiting competent management staff from the international manpower market. Many of the hardships can be alleviated by taking appropriate measures. However, the placement of foreign personnel in charge of the management of large desalination projects could result in difficulties detrimental to the development plans of the water supply in the country. Careful planning of large desalination projects requires consideration and reevaluation of the role of foreign experts. The use of well-tested computer programs in operation management and the use of less manpowerdemanding systems are viable options which can minimize the dependence on foreign experts. This would also allow for gradual utilization of indigent personnel as the local trained manpower resources grow in number and experience. The aforementioned problem of desalination knowledge transfer can only be alleviated by radical changes and permanent solutions. Abdul-Fattah [35] recommended that the governments in developing nations ought to encourage the establishment of independent scientific agencies to assure competition and efficiency. These agencies may cooperate with local universities and other universities in the neighboring countries. Also, a great effort needs to be devoted to the formation of a transfer of water technology group to adapt modem techniques and methods of technology transfer. For the time being, necessary water knowledge can be transferred through contact between experts and indigent scientists and engineers. Furthermore, pilot projects may be established in developing countries to generate the necessary parametric information required for the design of large-scale desalination projects. The pilot project may generate sufficient information for wider use and may provide training opportunities for indigent workers and management personnel.

DECISION ANALYSIS

OF DESALINATION

PLANT MANAGEMENT

It is important that local planners become familiar with the social implications of transfer of technology and recognize the associated need for changes in the present management structure_ The transfer of technology across Saudi Arabian borders for example, may involve some cultural and social changes in the society. These changes may lead to complications if there is no careful prior pl arming of technology transfer. Optimum transfer requires availability of technical manpower with the necessary knowledge about the religious, cultural, and social structure of the nation. This is to avoid any problems which may arise by blind technology transfer. Moreover, great attention should be paid to those persons who travel abroad for education or training. Some difficulties may arise during the training period in developed countries; for example, the Venezuelans faced several problems with the Gran Mariscd de Ayachuco Foundation 1361. These problems were the brain drain, the marriage of Venezuelans to foreigners, which encouraged them to stay in the developed countries, and loss of contact with their home country after several years of living abroad. One more thing which should be emphasized here is that large engineehg projects cannot be implemented through the sole purchase of equipment, facilities and foreign manpower. It is necessary to establish supporting industry and build a technological base through cooperation with scientific research institutes and laboratories. A good example of this is the training of an Argentinian physicist who spent 42 months at the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center (in Germany). First he worked on a program concerned with the measurement of cross sections of iron and uranium, which allowed him to obtain his doctorate at an Argentinian university. Later he carried out calculations on the optimization of the fuel cycle costs of the Atucha Nuclear Power Plant (in Argentine) which modified Karlsruhe computer codes. The knowledge and experience which he gained had enabled him to fill a position in which he is responsible for the whole core and fuel management of the Atucha Nuclear Power Plant [37] _ Selection of management personnel The planners at the early stages of a large engineering project face the need to decide on the choice of management personnel. It is clear from the above discussion that there is no problem-free choice. Any of the available alternatives is associated with its unique merits and complications. The planner needs to form a balance sheet and weigh the pros and cons of each alternative. A compromise may be reached in which a combination of two or all alternatives may be selected_ A balance sheet is developed and is given in Table 1. A variety of weights can be attached to the list of credits and debits. Since there is no obvious preference of any of the three strategies, mix between them, such as the use of automation and computers with some use of indigent personnel, may be preferred.

Debits 1. Unfan~iliarity with local environment, 2. Lack of motivation, 3. Use of alien techniques, 4. Language and cultural barriers, 5. Inability to integrate with local society, 6. Shortage of high quality personnel in the international manpower market. 1. Inability to t&crate, 2. Highly influenced by vendor’s philosophy, 3. Special skill requirements for optimum use. 1, Lack of experience, 2. Underestimation of time elements, 3. Inability lo schedule, 4. Reluctance to $ccept regulations and authority of supervisors, 6. Underscoring value of quality assurance, 6, Difficulty to acquire necessary information.

Crcdils I.. Experience and professional maturity, 2. High productivity, 3. Ability to communicate with desalination community and industries, 4, Awareness of the-state-of.thc-art, 5. Willingnessto follow rules and regulations, 6. Appreciation of high quality.

1 1Higb level of acceptability, 2, Ease of updating, 3, Ability to forecust. 1. Dedication, 2. Seriousness, 3. Ability to understand local needs, 4. Ease of communication with local authorities and subordinates, 5. Appreciation of responsibility, 6. Highly affected by motivation,

strategy

Foreign experts

Automation and Computer

Indigent personnel

TABLE I BALANCE SHEET FOR ALTERNATE DESALINATION PLANT MANAGEMENT SCHEMES

DECISION

ANALYSIS

QUANTITATIVE

OF DESALINATION

PLANT

MANAGEMENT

269

ANALYSIS

Qualitative assessment of the merits of each management strategy for a specific case such as that of desalination plants in Saudi Arabia is complicated by the fact that there are several issues to be simultaneously considered. The decision maker, in order to reach a conclusion, has to eliminate or overlook some of the issues of concern. This is equivalent to assigning zero weight to debits or credits of less significance. Often, the decisionmaker faces a predicament in which personal preferences may overshadow rational judgement or may be undermined. On the other hand, if general measures of effectiveness are identified for the engineering management strategy in the case under consideration, the merits of each of the suggested strategies can be quantified. This would allow the use of the multiattribute utility theory in selecting the most viable decision. Attributes

Fourteen attributes are found to be the most prominent measures of effectiveness in the present situation. These are notated as Xi, i = 1,2, . . . 14 and are described below Xl = cost in millions of dollars per year: This cost includes the estimated salaries for all the engineering management staff of the desalination plant, housing rent, transportation, research materials, and operation cost for the buildings. Research materials and operation costs may be considered as 50% of the total staff salaries. G overhead cost in millions of dollars: This includes the cost of buildx2 ings, computers, and equipment facilities needed for the management organization of the plant. acceptability: This is a measure of how indigent workers accept orders x3 from higher authorities; locals or foreign experts. s adequate sources: This represents the probability of whether or not x4 enough sources of skilled indigent foreign experts, or equipments are available. x5 E compatibility: The compatibility of the strategy with the operation of the desalination plant and the new work environment_ E lead time: This is the required time to implement the strategy. x6 z project success. x7 xg - continuity: This is a measure of the period of nonobsolescence of a given strategy or of the continuity of indigent or foreign expert in holding the same job. Twenty-five years is considered as an average time during which a person may efficiently serve in a certain job or after which a given computer simulation becomes totally obsolete. G field experience. x9 x ,0 E updating probability: This is the probability of continuous updating of the available data or knowledge.

270

A. F. ABDUL-FA’M’AH

AND

A. A. HUSSEINY

s language learning period: This is the required time to learn a foreign language if indigent personnel are trained in a foreign country; the required time for foreign experts to learn the Arabic language before coming to work in Saudi Arabia, or the required time to master computer software techniques. x1.2 = indigent manpower resources development in persons per year. 3 execution time: This is the required time to execute the project. x13 xl4 3 dedication. x, ,

Although the above 14 measures of effectiveness are the most important ones, they are not exclusive. Other factors may be added later on if they are found to be important enough to be included. However, the analysis given here can be extended to include other measures without significant change in the procedure.

THE

ANALYSIS

The multiattribute utility theory is used in this analysis to help the decision-makers in selecting the most likely to succeed engineering management strategy for large desalination plants in Saudi Arabia. The aim of this method is to estimate the expected utility values for the five alternative systems which are mentioned above. The higher utilities are considered to be the best, and the lower utilities are the worst. To calculate the overall utility values, one has to start by assessing a multiattribute utility function, as well as evaluating the attribute levels for each of the alternatives. Assessing

the overall utility function

There are four necessary steps that should be used for assessing the overall utility function of the given options; namely [38,39], l_ quantification of the measures of effectiveness; 2. investigation of the qualitative preference structure; 3. assessment of the component utility functions; and 4. assessment of the scaling factors. The first step of a utility assessment is to examine and quantify the different attributes which will be used in evaluating the five alternatives. These attributes are summarized in Table II and the extreme values (worst or best) are given. The values reflect the best estimates which are obtained based on assessment of the current situation in Saudi Arabia and previous experience. Those values may be changed according to variations in social situation or inflation rates. The second step is to determine the qualitative structure that indicates functional forms appropriate for quantifying the actual utility functions [38]. Generally, attitude towards uncertain outcomes can be one of three categories; liberal, conservative and moderate. The additive form of Eq. (7)

DECISION ANALYSIS

OF DESALINATION

TABLE II ATTRIBUTES OF ENGINEERING ECTS IN SAUDI ARABIA Symbol

PLANT MANAGEMENT

MANAGEMENT

STRATEGY

Attributes

Units

cost Overhead Acceptability Adequate source probability Compatibility Lead time Project success Continuity Field experience Updating probability Language learning period Indigent. manpower resources development Execution time Dedication

is usually used when the decision-maker ing

of

the component

utilities

is merely Ui without either

M S/year MS subjective percent subjective months percent years years percent yea= persons/w years subjective

271

FOR LARGE

PROJ-

R=w worst

Best

5 100 0 0 0 90 0 0 0 0 5 0 15 0

0.25 1 100 100 100 5 100 25 20 100 0.50 100 5 100

interested in direct weightseeking a risky decision or

being averse to risk. In contrast Eq. (8) can be used for situations where conservative or liberal decisions are sought. The difference is in the value of the constant R which is determined by the selected values of ki. This can be shown by equating all utilities to their maximum value of one in Eq. (8), that is l+K

= i& [l+Kki]-

(15)

By substituting the values of h , , k, , . . . , k 14 into Eq. (15) and by iteration, one can get the value of K which should be in the range -1-K K < 0. Also, the shape of the curves representing the utility functions Ui(xi) corresponding to xi can be synthesized qualitatively based on the preference of the decision-maker_ The set of curves for the present case are given in Figs. 1 through 10. The slopes of the preference curves are estimated according to previous experience and to the expected attitude of the people of Saudi Arabia. The third step is the quantitative assessment of the 14 component utility functions which correspond to the 14 attributes listed in Table II. To illustrate for the method let us consider the cost factor x, . By definition, u1 (0.25) = 1 and u, (5) = 0 are two points on the preference curve. Now, suppose there is an equal chance that the cost of a given option is 0.25 MS/ year or 5 MS/year. To avoid the risk of this lottery the decision-makers may

272

A. F. ABDUL-FATI’AH

1.00

0.60

0.60

-z-

T = s 0.40 E 0.20

Fig. l_ Utility of cost in millions of dollars per year.

Fig. 2. Utility of overhead cost in millions of doliars.

AND A- k HUSSW

DECISION ANALYSIS

0.80

-

a.60

-

0.20

-

OF DESALINATION

PLANT MANAGEMENT

273

E 3

E CxJRATIBILIn.x, ACCEPTAAILXTV.

0

40 ATTRImTE

ACCEPTA81LXTY

Fig. 3. Utility of acceptability dedication, x 14.

0.60

-

0.40

-

0.20

-

1 10

60 “3.

of co-workers,

z 2 5 i E

0.00

s

22

39

Fig_ 4. UtiIity of lead time.

f.

56

73

x3 ; compatibifity

of strategy, x5; and

A. F. ABDUL-FATI’AH

214

AND A. A. HUSSEINY

ATlRIBUTE

Fig. 5. Utility of probability of adequate sources, ~4 ; success, x7 ; and updating, x 10.

0.80

-

0.60

-

-k x

-3 L 0.40 tz _I 5 0.20 -

0.00 0.00

5.00 x8.

10.00 CONTIWITY.

Fig. 6. Utility of continuity_

15.00 YCARS

20.00

Z! DO

EXPERIERCE. YEARS

“3.

Fig. 7. Utility of field experience.

0.80

0.60

-

T-

x-

-2

r ;

0.40

t A

5 0.20

-

a.50 x1,,

CEARXIXG PERIOD.

YEARS

Fig. 8. Utility of language learning period.

A. F. ABDUL-FATTAH

276

I-00

0.80

-

c;; 0.60 z >

-

= = 5

Fig.

O-40 -

9. Utility

of

7.00 x1,.

Fig. 10. Utility

manpower

resources

9.00

EXECUTION TIE. of execution.

11.00

YEARS

development.

13.00

l!

AND

A. A. HUSSEINY

DECISION ANALYSIS

OF DESALLNATION

PLANT MANAGEMENT

271

preferto spend a fixed amount of money or pay an insurancepremiumup to

which they may feel indifferent to the choice of the lottery or the premium investment. We feel indifferent to pay either xt = 4.5 M$/year or to take the 50-50 chanceZottery,thus a Ievel at

u t (4.5) = 0.5 u1 (5) + 0.5 u1 (0.25) = 0.5 which gives a third point on the curve. Simiiarlythe utilities

&(&I

= 0.5 Ul(5) + 0.5 Ul(4.5)

and U&;‘)

= 0.5 z&t (4.5) + 0.5 UI(0.25)

corresponding to the points xi and x’: can be determined by determining the points of indifference towards spending xi and x;‘MS/year or keeping the

50-50 chance Iotteries5/4.5 and 4_5/0_25MS/year, respectively.By proceed-

ing in this fashion, as many points as necessary can be obtained. The quali-

tative preference structure may be used to check the consistency of the results. The fourth step is the evaluation of the scaling factors_ To do this, one should start by assessing the constants ki to order their magnitude, and to estimate the relative numerical values of those constants.The technique used in ordering the ki’s is by setting all the 14 attributes given in Table II at their worst levels, and see which attribute is more preferred to be raised to its best level to improve the overall value. In this case, k, is seIectedas the best. By repeatingthis, the scaling factors are arrangedin the order

k?

>kl2

=

k14>ks

= k3>k4>k6>kg>ks

= k,,>kt3>kI

>kz>kll.

The following game is used to determine the value of k>,

+ (l-

kj)fxy,XZ,_..,xi_i,xy,xi,l,...,x,)

(17)

where - refersto indifferenceand the superscripts- and + refer to least and most preferred ievels respectively_ The factor k, is in this sense the probability of all attributes raised to their most preferred level with (1 - ki) the probability of worst level prevailing_ The value of ki at which there is not difference between raising XT only to the best level with the rest of the attributes at their least preferred level and the lottery in the right hand side of Eq. (16). Repeating the process for all ki's,the values are estimated to be

100.00

25.00

Percent Subjective Months Percent Years Years Percent Years Persons/Year Years Subjective

4. Adequate source8 probability

5. Compatibility

6. Lend time

7. Project tiuccesfi

8. Continuity

9. Field experiences

10. Updating probability

11. Language learning period

12. Manpower resources development

13. Construction time

14. Dedication

0,oo

15.00

o*oo

5.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

90.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

10.00

9.00

80.00

1,oo

80.00

15.00

5.00

40.00

20,oo

50.00

80.00

15.00

80.00

3.50

20.00

6.00

96.00

0.50

30.00

10.00

26.00

70.00

10.00

70.00

90.00

100.00

95.00

4.50

15.00

7.00

87.00

0,76

50,oo

13.00

10,oo

6500

16.00

60.00

85.00

50.00

87.00

4.00

III

90.00

11.00

76.00

1.00

90.00

2.00

25.00

90.00

30.00

90.00

70.00

80.00

70.00

2.50

IV

60.00

10.00

70.00

1.00

80.00

6.00

20.00

80.00

26.00

70.00

8O;OO

66.00

70,oo

3.00

V

* Alternative systems: I = experts only; II =: computer use; III = mixture between experts and computer use; IV = training; V = experts phased out with trained locnls.

100.00

5.00

100.00

0.50

100.00

20.00

5.00

100,00

100.00

100.00

100~00

Subjective

3. Acceptability

1 .oo

M$

2. Overhead

5.00

0.25

II

I

Best worst

Alternative systems*

Range

MSfYear

Unit6

1. Cost

Attribute

‘rABL~ III A’R’RlBUTES AND ATTRIBUTE LEVELS FOR DIFFERENT ALTERNATIVES FOR MANAGEMENT OF STRATEGIES OF LARGE DESALINATION PROJECTS IN SAUDI ARABIA

k * =c

:

g h

9 4

T

[

j*

? ‘3

2 OD

279

kl

= 0.17

k2

=

0.13

ka

=

0.29

k9

=

0.32

k3 = 0.49

k,, = 0.29

k4 = 0.45 ks = 0.49

k ,* = 0.09

0.38

k 13 = 0.23

k6

=

k,

= 0.6

k I* = 0.54 k 14

=

0.54.

Using those values in Eq. (15), the value of K is calculated by iteration to be H = -0.990. This value corresponds to a conservative attitude which exhibits risk aversion since Xiki > 1. Evaluating attribute levels and the utility functions for each alternative The attribute levels for each alternative give a measure of the degree to which this particular alternative f&ills a planning objective. These levels are estimated and summarized in Table III. The utility function values are then calculated for the five alternatives using Eq. (8) with V&WS of Ui(Xi) obtained tirn the utility curves for the corresponding attributes Xi and the values of ki’s and R estimated above. The results are summarized in Table IV, which shows that the best choice is alternative II, and the second best is alternative IV. TABLE IV UTILITY VALUE FOR THE FIVE ALTERNATIVE

MANAGEMENT

Strategy

Utility value

Rank order

I Experts only II Computerandautomation III Mix between experts and computer IV Indigent personnel with foreign training V Experts phased out with trained locals

0.785 0.968 0.845 0.949 0.847

5 1 4 2 3

STRATEGIES

CONCLUSION

The results summarized in Table IV show that the best solution for the engineering management of large desalination plants in Saudi Arabia is to use the computer and simulation strategy which will minimize the number of indigent personnel needed. The second best choice is to use the local workers who had been trained in similar projects in foreign countries. This result confirms the outcome of the qualitative assessment of present management schemes in Saudi Arabia which shows that in order to have a successful

A. F.

ABDUL-FATTAH

AND A. A. HUSSEINY

project, the management personnel must be dominantly indigent persons who are familiar with the local conditions_ However, it may be necessary to use foreign experts in some assignments other than management positions. Since there is a current shortage of manpower within the country, therefore the best solution, at Ieast during the early stages, is to use computer packages, automation and simulation until enougb numbers of well-trained locals become available. Obviously, the personal attitude and experience of the decision-maker affect the preference structure and the values of the attributes which influence the decision. Different selection of the values of these factors from those made here may result in a different conclusion. However, in any case, the result will be based on an educated guess of outcomes, an evaluation of the state-of-the-art and on careful assessment of alternatives. Consequently, the decision will be much superior to hasty and spontaneous decisions. The technique described here may be applied to other management decision tasks using the same procedure. The viability of the method to decisions under uncertainty on multivariate options is not limited for use by one or more decision-makers but may accommodate for general public attitude or the preference pattern of a large sector of a given group. The method is powerful in accounting for factors which are not easily quantified by familiar measures.

REFERENCES

1. R. D. Lute 2. 3. 4. 5.

6. 7. 8.

9. 10. Il.

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DECISION

ANALYSIS

OF DESALINATiON

PLANT

MANAGEMENT

281

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282 36.

A. F. ABDUL-FA’M’AH

AND A. A. HUSSEINY

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