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No more games
LEADER
Editorial Editor-in-chief Sumit Paul-Choudhury Executive editor Graham Lawton Head of production Julian Richards Art editor Craig Mackie Editor at large Jeremy Webb ROBERT CARTER/CRACKED HAT ILLUSTRATION
News Chief news editor Niall Firth Editors Sally Adee, Jacob Aron, Penny Sarchet, Jon White, Chelsea Whyte Reporters (UK) Andy Coghlan, Jessica Hamzelou, Michael Le Page, Matt Reynolds, Timothy Revell, Clare Wilson, Sam Wong, (US) Leah Crane, Aylin Woodward, (Aus) Alice Klein
Features Chief features editor Richard Webb Editors Catherine de Lange, Gilead Amit, Catherine Brahic, Julia Brown, Daniel Cossins, Kate Douglas, Alison George, Joshua Howgego, Tiffany O’Callaghan, Sean O’Neill
Culture and Community Editors Liz Else, Mike Holderness, Simon Ings, Frank Swain
Subeditors Managing subeditor Eleanor Parsons Vivienne Greig, Tom Campbell, Hannah Joshua, Chris Simms
Design Kathryn Brazier, Joe Hetzel, Dave Johnston, Ryan Wills
Picture desk Chief picture editor Adam Goff Kirstin Kidd, David Stock
Production Mick O’Hare, Alan Blagrove, Anne Marie Conlon, Melanie Green
Contact us newscientist.com/contact General & media enquiries Tel +44 (0)20 7611 1202 [email protected] UK 25 Bedford Street, London WC2E 9ES Tel +44 (0)20 7611 1200 AUSTRALIA Level 11, Suite 3, 100 Walker Street, North Sydney, NSW 2060 Tel +61 (0)2 9422 8559 US 45 Prospect Street, Cambridge, MA 02139 Tel +1 781 734 8773
© 2017 New Scientist Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by New Scientist Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. New Scientist (Online) ISSN 2059 5387 Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Williams Gibbons (Wolverhampton)
No more games The nuclear stalemate is crumbling. What are our options? THE game theorist Thomas Schelling, who died last year, is one of science’s great unsung heroes. It was largely his analysis of nuclear strategy that prevented the US and USSR from turning the cold war into a hot one – and immolating the human race. That polarised conflict is now history. Rather than two superpowers, at least nine states now have nuclear weapons – the latest and most worrying being North Korea. That’s not the whole story: nuclear tensions are also being ratcheted up by innocuouslooking upgrades of the US nuclear arsenal (see page 30). The arms race is back on.
So how do you solve a problem like Korea? There are no easy answers. For all the bluster, the military options are limited and economic measures handicapped by lack of consensus. We are faced not with a Schelling-style scenario of two mutually hostile states, but a Gordian knot of intertwined and incompatible national interests. To cut the knot, the goal has to be to convince the North Korean leadership it doesn’t need nukes to ward off being invaded and overthrown. The “hermit kingdom” must be drawn into the modern community of nations, where zero-sum “my nation against your nation” thinking is
increasingly obsolete and states are less and less likely to settle their differences with violence. Bringing North Korea in from the cold might achieve the same. That will be a long and delicate process, with much risk of a misstep. It also means talking to a regime whose words and deeds are repugnant, although a less bellicose stance might even lead to social reforms too. But the world doesn’t have a better option. The long stalemate is crumbling; other would-be nuclear powers are watching closely. As Winston Churchill put it: meeting jaw to jaw is better than war. n
The live experience is back NEW SCIENTIST LIVE is just around the corner. When we launched our festival of ideas last year, we worked hard to put on a fantastic show, and we had high hopes. But still we were thrilled when it was named Best Consumer Show by the Exhibition News Awards, and picked up Event of the Year at the British Media Awards. This year will be even better: we have added an extra zone and dozens
more talks, experiences and exhibitors. It covers the breadth of science, medicine and technology – we like to think we present life, the universe and everything under one roof. You’ll find a preview in the pull-out section in this week’s magazine, but here’s a taster: a leader of the Cassini mission will describe how she felt as the probe vaporised. There will be a live video link to the International
Space Station. One of the world’s most innovative choreographers has created a show just for us. Leading scientists will speak about everything from the origin of life to a cure for ageing. And Margaret Atwood, author of The Handmaid’s Tale, will tell how science inspires her writing. It runs from 28 September to 1 October, and we hope you’ll come along and be inspired too.
23 September 2017 | NewScientist | 5
Editorial Editor-in-chief Sumit Paul-Choudhury Executive editor Graham Lawton Head of production Julian Richards Art editor Craig Mackie Editor at large Jeremy Webb ROBERT CARTER/CRACKED HAT ILLUSTRATION
News Chief news editor Niall Firth Editors Sally Adee, Jacob Aron, Penny Sarchet, Jon White, Chelsea Whyte Reporters (UK) Andy Coghlan, Jessica Hamzelou, Michael Le Page, Matt Reynolds, Timothy Revell, Clare Wilson, Sam Wong, (US) Leah Crane, Aylin Woodward, (Aus) Alice Klein
Features Chief features editor Richard Webb Editors Catherine de Lange, Gilead Amit, Catherine Brahic, Julia Brown, Daniel Cossins, Kate Douglas, Alison George, Joshua Howgego, Tiffany O’Callaghan, Sean O’Neill
Culture and Community Editors Liz Else, Mike Holderness, Simon Ings, Frank Swain
Subeditors Managing subeditor Eleanor Parsons Vivienne Greig, Tom Campbell, Hannah Joshua, Chris Simms
Design Kathryn Brazier, Joe Hetzel, Dave Johnston, Ryan Wills
Picture desk Chief picture editor Adam Goff Kirstin Kidd, David Stock
Production Mick O’Hare, Alan Blagrove, Anne Marie Conlon, Melanie Green
Contact us newscientist.com/contact General & media enquiries Tel +44 (0)20 7611 1202 [email protected] UK 25 Bedford Street, London WC2E 9ES Tel +44 (0)20 7611 1200 AUSTRALIA Level 11, Suite 3, 100 Walker Street, North Sydney, NSW 2060 Tel +61 (0)2 9422 8559 US 45 Prospect Street, Cambridge, MA 02139 Tel +1 781 734 8773
© 2017 New Scientist Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by New Scientist Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. New Scientist (Online) ISSN 2059 5387 Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Williams Gibbons (Wolverhampton)
No more games The nuclear stalemate is crumbling. What are our options? THE game theorist Thomas Schelling, who died last year, is one of science’s great unsung heroes. It was largely his analysis of nuclear strategy that prevented the US and USSR from turning the cold war into a hot one – and immolating the human race. That polarised conflict is now history. Rather than two superpowers, at least nine states now have nuclear weapons – the latest and most worrying being North Korea. That’s not the whole story: nuclear tensions are also being ratcheted up by innocuouslooking upgrades of the US nuclear arsenal (see page 30). The arms race is back on.
So how do you solve a problem like Korea? There are no easy answers. For all the bluster, the military options are limited and economic measures handicapped by lack of consensus. We are faced not with a Schelling-style scenario of two mutually hostile states, but a Gordian knot of intertwined and incompatible national interests. To cut the knot, the goal has to be to convince the North Korean leadership it doesn’t need nukes to ward off being invaded and overthrown. The “hermit kingdom” must be drawn into the modern community of nations, where zero-sum “my nation against your nation” thinking is
increasingly obsolete and states are less and less likely to settle their differences with violence. Bringing North Korea in from the cold might achieve the same. That will be a long and delicate process, with much risk of a misstep. It also means talking to a regime whose words and deeds are repugnant, although a less bellicose stance might even lead to social reforms too. But the world doesn’t have a better option. The long stalemate is crumbling; other would-be nuclear powers are watching closely. As Winston Churchill put it: meeting jaw to jaw is better than war. n
The live experience is back NEW SCIENTIST LIVE is just around the corner. When we launched our festival of ideas last year, we worked hard to put on a fantastic show, and we had high hopes. But still we were thrilled when it was named Best Consumer Show by the Exhibition News Awards, and picked up Event of the Year at the British Media Awards. This year will be even better: we have added an extra zone and dozens
more talks, experiences and exhibitors. It covers the breadth of science, medicine and technology – we like to think we present life, the universe and everything under one roof. You’ll find a preview in the pull-out section in this week’s magazine, but here’s a taster: a leader of the Cassini mission will describe how she felt as the probe vaporised. There will be a live video link to the International
Space Station. One of the world’s most innovative choreographers has created a show just for us. Leading scientists will speak about everything from the origin of life to a cure for ageing. And Margaret Atwood, author of The Handmaid’s Tale, will tell how science inspires her writing. It runs from 28 September to 1 October, and we hope you’ll come along and be inspired too.
23 September 2017 | NewScientist | 5