- Email: [email protected]
Northern Cyprus presidential elections, April 2015
Notes on recent elections / Electoral Studies 40 (2015) 430e447
Gaburici, a 38-year-old businessman, had not held political office previously. Significantly, Voronin (former PCRM prime minister) endorsed his appointment, suggesting that such an unconnected figure was necessary. However, with no previous political experience, Gaburici was established as a puppet to be manipulated rather than empowered. Gaburici's weak position became evident in dealing with the ‘lost billion’ scandal, in which it emerged during 2014 that 15% of Moldova's GDP had disappeared from three of Moldova's largest banks; these have since been placed under special administration. Frustrated at the intractability of the relationship between Moldovan politics and the banking crisis, Gaburici lasted just four months in office before resigning in June 2015 under the auspices of his own scandal, concerning allegations of fake degrees. At the time of writing (September 2015), a new government had been formed, the ‘Alliance for European Integration 3’ led by PLDM candidate Valeriu Strelet¸ as prime minister. This follows the rejection of PLDM's previous candidate, Maia Sandu (Education Minister 2012e2015), by PL and PDM, who objected to her overly tough stance in tackling the banking crisis (e.g. her desire to remove the head of the National Bank of Moldova). Strelet¸, as a wealthy career politician, is therefore likely to be a weak prime minister, beholden to the strongmen of the pro-European coalition (Vlad Filat and Vlad Plahotniuc) and their interests, and out of touch with public concern over rising economic uncertainty, heightened by the hole in Moldova's finances. However, the continuous instability of the governmental coalitions, and the political and economic scandals that have repeatedly led to their demise, means that support and trust for the pro-European coalition is suffering, most notably the ascendancy of Demnitate s¸i Adeva r a new civic society movement (Platforma Civica (DA), Civic Platform for Dignity and Truth) which since May 2015 had been organising protests that culminated in the largest protest in Moldova's history on 6 September 2015, in a call for early elections, the resignation of Moldova's President, Nicolae Timofti, and a fuller investigation of the banking fraud. As such, the question remains how long the Alliance can hold off early elections before 2018 and whether they will win enough seats to be able to form a coalition in future elections, threatened both by the pro-Russian PSRM
441
and the emergence of potentially new political forces from within civil society, such as DA.
References Botan, I., 2010. Why the d’Hondt seat distribution method was given up? E-Democracy. http://www.e-democracy.md/en/monitoring/politics/comments/ robin-hood-formula (accessed 05.07.15.). Cantir, Cristian, 2011. The parliamentary election in the Republic of Moldova, November 2010. Elect. Stud. 30.4, 880e883. Champion, M., 2014. ‘Russia's Project Moldova’ Bloomberg View, 24th November 2014. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-24/russias-projectmoldova (accessed 05.07.15.). Council of Europe, 2003. MOLDOVA - Opinion on the Election Law. http://vota.te. gob.mx/content/moldova-opinion-election-law (accessed 05.07.15.). Danero Iglesias, J., 2015. An Ad Hoc nation an analysis of moldovan election campaign clips. East Eur. Polit. Soc. duminica viitoare s-ar organiza alegeri pentru ParlaE-Democracy, 2014. Daca mentul RM, cu ce partid at¸i vota? (If next Sunday there were elections for the Parliament of Moldova, for which party would you vote?) http://www.edemocracy.md/elections/parliamentary/2014/public-opinion-polls/ (accessed 02.07.15.). Herszenhorn, D.M., 2014. Moldova Vote Gives Edge to Parties Looking West. New York Times, 1st Dec, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/world/europe/ moldova-parliament-elections.html (accessed 01 12.14.). Knott, E., 2013. ‘Whatever Happened to Moldova's Twitter Generation?’ UCL SSEES Research Blog, 16 September 2013. https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/ssees/2013/09/16/ whatever-happened-to-moldovastwitter-generation/ (acccessed 16.09.13.). OSCE, 2014a. Republic of Moldova: Parliamentary Elections 30 November 2014, OSCE/ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report 2-14th September 2014. http:// www.osce.org/odihr/elections/moldova/123800?download¼true (accessed 05.07.15.). OSCE, 2014b. Republic of Moldova: Parliamentary Elections 30 November 2014, OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report. http://www.osce.org/ odihr/elections/moldova/144196?download¼true (accessed 05.07.15.). Promo-LEX, 2015. Final Report: on the Monitoring of 30 November 2014 Parliamentary Elections. http://www.promolex.md/upload/publications/en/doc_ 1424160345.pdf (accessed 05.07.15.). Renato Usatîi recunoas¸te c Publika, M.D., 2014. Declarat¸ii BOMBA: a este prizonierul Moscovei (Bomb Declaration: Renato Usatîi recognises that he's a prisoner of Moscow). http://www.publika.md/declaratii-bomba–renato-usatii-recunoasteca-este-prizonierul-moscovei-video_2168491.html (accessed 05.07.15.). Samuelson, A., 2013. Frustration and Creativity: Environmentalism in the Republic of Moldova. Unpublished PhD Thesis. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Seton-Watson, H., 1963. The East European Revolution, third ed. Praeger, New York. Vdovii, L., 2014. A Firebrand Aims for Moldova's Seat of Power, Transitions Online, 24th November 2014. http://www.tol.org/client/article/24573-a-firebrandaims-for-moldovas-seat-of-power.html (accessed 05.07.15.).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.09.002
Northern Cyprus presidential elections, April 2015 Hüseyin Is¸ıksal Department of International Relations, Girne American University, Girne 99428, North Cyprus
a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 1 September 2015 Accepted 13 September 2015 Available online 30 September 2015
E-mail address: [email protected].
The ninth presidential elections were held in Northern Cyprus in April 2015. The first round was completed on April 19, 2015. Since no candidate was able to get 50% of the votes, the two top candidates of the first round, the incumbent president from the rightlu, and the independent left-wing candidate, wing Dr. Dervis¸ Erog Mustafa Akıncı, progressed to the second round. The second round, held on April 26, was won by Akıncı who became the fourth President and the new leader of Turkish Cypriots. Although the turnout rate of the elections was the lowest in Northern Cyprus' electoral history, the results brought fresh hope and created new momentum for the federal settlement of the Cyprus problem.
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Notes on recent elections / Electoral Studies 40 (2015) 430e447
1. Background Although the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is officially recognized only by Turkey, it has a democratic legacy and elected President since 1976. The TRNC holds regularly scheduled Presidential Elections every five years. The High Electoral Council announced the date of the ninth Presidential elections on February 22, 2015. The country entered the elections under the atmosphere of uncertainty and mistrust. On the one hand, on September 8, 2014 Republic of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades left the negotiation table by claiming that Turkey was exploring gas in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Republic of Cyprus. Anastasiades added that he would not resume peace talks until Turkey showed respect to the sovereignty rights of Cyprus (ABNA-SE News). On the other hand, a referendum on constitutional amendments, held on June 29, 2014, was rejected by 62.3% of the TRNC citizens even though the proposals had support from the lu (LGC News). three major parties of the Parliament and President Erog This result was a clear demonstration of mistrust of the politicians in Northern Cyprus. Under these circumstances many wondered whether the right-wing incumbent president or the challenging left-wing candidate would win the elections. 2. Electoral process and system North Cyprus is described in its Constitution as a parliamentary system. In practice, however, it operates as semi-presidential system. According to the Constitution of Northern Cyprus, the President of the Republic is the Head of the State. The President appoints the Prime Minister from among the members of parliament and can appoint and terminate the Ministers upon the recommendation of the Prime Minister.1 The President also has the power to reject the laws approved by the Assembly through the opinion of the Supreme Court. Lastly, the President represents the Turkish Cypriot people in the international arena as the leader of the community. Therefore, the main duty of the President is to represent Turkish Cypriots in the negotiations for the settlement of the Cyprus problem. The 2015 election rules were consistent with all the previous Presidential elections since 1976. A president is elected for five years and should poll the absolute majority of the eligible votes. Unless any candidate ensures the absolute majority, the election is repeated 7 days later in a second round between the two candidates who received the highest votes. Candidates for President should be an university graduate, at least 35 years old, born from a Turkish mother and father, a TRNC citizen, and have lived in North Cyprus for at least the last five years2. Every TRNC citizen who is over 18 years old at the time of voting and legally registered is a valid voter. The presidential elections are held according to the principles of universal direct suffrage. Votes are conducted through a secret ballot. Counting and recording of votes are made openly. 3. Candidates and election campaign Northern Cyprus election rules allowed for a thirty day campaign period before each election. The campaign period for the 2015 Presidential Elections ran from March 19th to April 18th. Twenty-four hours before the election, campaigns are restricted by law. Seven candidates contested in this election. President Dr. lu, President of the National Assembly Sibel Siber, inDervis¸ Erog dependent left candidate Mustafa Akıncı, independent candidate € (InKudret Ozersay, and three other candidates Arif Salih Kırdag dependent), Mustafa Onurer (Cyprus Socialist Party), and Mustafa
1 2
See Part Four Article 102 of the TRNC Constitution. See Part Four Article 99(1) of the TRNC Constitution.
Ulas¸ (Independent) applied to the High Electoral Council to stand in the election. The significance of these elections compared to the previous elections was the high number of main candidates that is contested for the presidency. Unlike the 2010 Presidential Elections where there were only two main candidates, the 2015 Elections had four front-running candidates in the race. Candidates campaigned by: giving out booklets, making personal appeals, holding meetings, publicizing via media advertisements and road-side billboards, organising rallies in the main cities, parading in road shows, and facing off in TV programmes. In addition to the traditional ways of campaigning, the candidates used social media extensively to communicate with the voters. € Ozersay in a greater extent, and Akıncı and Siber in a lesser extent, made use of social media. The campaign period was peaceful with only minor infractions, such as the destruction of some of the candidates' posters. The favourite candidate on paper before the election was Dr. lu, 77 years old and the incumbent president. Erog lu Dervis¸ Erog had acted as the Prime Minister of the TRNC for more than 18 years (1985e1994, 1996e2004, 2009e2010) as the leader of center-right Ulusal Birlik Partisi (UBP, National Unity Party). In 2010 he became the third President of the TRNC (after Rauf Denktas¸ and Mehmet Ali lu attended to the elections Talat) securing 61.4% of the votes. Erog as an independent candidate. The two main parties of the right, however, the main opposition party, UBP, and a smaller partner of the coalition government Demokrat Parti (DP, Democratic Party) lu. Although he is known as declared their full support to Erog lu based his elecnationalist and a status quo political figure, Erog toral campaign on a ‘final, just, and sustainable settlement of the Cyprus problem’ (Kıbrıs Gazetesi). He argued that the 2015 election is so critical that Turkish Cypriots should give him a mandate to finalize the Cyprus problem at the earliest possible date by protecting the rights of Turkish Cypriots (Adabasını). The only female candidate of the 2015 election, Dr. Sibel Siber, is a member of parliament since 2009 and from the main party of the coalition government Cumhuriyetci Türk Partisi-Birles¸ik Güçler (CTPBG, Republican Turkish Party-United Forces). In the 2013 parliamentary elections she received the highest votes among all the elected members of the parliament3. Before the 2013 elections, she was the acting Prime Minister for two months of the transition government, and after the elections she was elected as the Speaker of the Parliament. Dr. Siber focused her electoral campaign on change, resuming the Cyprus problem negotiations, a transparent presidency, and issues of trust and leadership. Siber also proposed the establishment of various expert committees for the solution of both the Cyprus and communal problems (Siber). Independent left-wing candidate Mustafa Akıncı, supported by the Communal Democracy Party and the United Cyprus Party, initiated his political career at the age of 27 when he was a member of the first Constituent Assembly of Northern Cyprus in 1975. One year later, he became the first elected mayor of the Turkish side of the capital city, Nicosia, holding this position for three consecutive terms (1976e1990). During this time, he successfully completed a major sewer project and shared the World Habitat Award for the “Nicosia Master Plan” by collaborating with his Greek Cypriot counterpart. From 1987 to 2001, he served as the leader of Communal Liberation Party and from 1993 to 2009 he was a member of the TRNC parliament. Akıncı used the olive branch as his campaign emblem symbolizing peace and Turkish Cypriot roots. Akıncı based his 2015 Presidential electoral campaign on four points: solution oriented politics, sensitivity to communal affairs,
3 Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee. Available at: http://ysk. mahkemeler.net/secim.aspx?skod¼36.
Notes on recent elections / Electoral Studies 40 (2015) 430e447 Table 1 Results of the Northern Cyprus presidential elections, 19e26 April 2015. Candidates
First round Votes
lu (independent) Dr. Dervis¸ Erog Mustafa Akıncı (independent) Dr. Sibel Siber (CTP-BG) € Kudret Ozersay (independent) Other candidates Invalid ballots Totals Registered votes/turnout
Second round Votes (%)
30,328 29,030 24,271 22,895
28.15 26.94 22.53 21.25
1,217 2,562 110,303 176,916
1.13 2,679 100.00 62.35
Votes
Votes (%)
43,763 67,032
39.50 60.50
110,799 176,980
100.00 64.12
Source: Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee (www.mahkemeler.net)
mutually respectful relations with Turkey, and an independent and objective presidency. During his campaign, Akıncı argued that he would vigorously work for the settlement of the Cyprus problem. He also called for a more equal and brotherly relationship with Turkey emphasizing he would neither “surrender nor establish a confrontational relationship” with Turkey. € Born in 1973, Mr. Kudret Ozersay, an International Relations lu between Professor, was the chief negotiator of President Erog € 2012 and 2014. Ozersay also made himself known as the leader of Toparlanıyoruz (Pulling Ourselves Together) movement that was established in 2012. Toparlanıyoruz, an independent, new social movement aims at combating corruption and promoting transparency and accountability in North Cyprus with a “bottom up” € campaign4. Ozersay based his campaign on good governance and € leadership. Ozersay argued that it is possible for Turkish Cypriots to administer themselves based upon their free will, merit, and reason. He also promised a presidency with improved democratic € institutions. Ozersay underlined active diplomatic policies in the negotiations by referencing his background and experiences. His slogan, “It's better if you choose”, argued that the electorate should free themselves of party affiliation and vote for the best candidate. 4. Election results The Presidential Election was held on Sunday, April 19th. Polls were open from 8:00 am to 6:00 pm, and 176,916 voters cast ballots at 693 ballot boxes. The turnout rate was the lowest in Northern Cyprus history (62.35%), and lower than in 2010 (76.4%) elections5. Turnout in Northern Cyprus has been on a steady downward trend since the 2010 Presidential Elections, so a low turnout was not lu achieved the highest votes in the first unexpected. Although Erog round with 28%, this was a big disappointment for him since the two main right wing parties that supported him achieved more than 50% of the votes in the 2013 Parliamentary Elections (Table1). On the other hand, the CTP-BG candidate Siber received only 22.5% of the votes, and failed to advance to the second round. This, despite her party winning the 2013 Parliamentary elections with 38.4% of the votes. Akıncı, who finished second with 27% of the votes, managed to win votes from the CTP-BG as well as the right wing constituency since the two main parties that supported him only get around 10% of the votes in the 2013 Parliamentary Elections. € The main surprise of the first round was Kudret Ozersay. Pre€ € election surveys gave Ozersay no chance.6 Ozersay was an
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independent candidate with no support from any political party € with limited campaign funds. Despite these difficulties, Ozersay achieved more than 21% of the votes. For the first time in Northern Cyprus history an independent candidate with no political party support was able to win such a high portion of the votes, although € Ozersay has no political background and it was his first election. Since none of the candidates received enough votes to be eleclu and Mustafa Akıncı ted President in the first round, Dervis¸ Erog competed for the Presidency in the second round. In the second € round the CTP-BG decided to actively support Akıncı, while Ozersay did not give support to any candidate. The second round was held on Sunday, April 26th and had a similar voter turnout as the first lu round (64.12%). Akıncı won the election with 60.5%, while Erog managed only 39.5%. This meant that Akıncı was not only supported by left-wing voters but again pulled votes from the rightwing constituency. 5. Implications First, the election results imply that Turkish Cypriots, who do not have a clear political vision of the future, voted for the change and settlement of the Cyprus problem. Akıncı has a political legacy of being within the pro-solution camp for more than forty years and is a highly respected figure in both sides of Cyprus. Second, voters reacted against the nepotism, partisanship, and corruption of the established mainstream parties and governments. The candidates who established their campaigns on ‘change and good governance’ received more than 70% of the votes in the first round. € Immediately after the elections Prime Minister Ozkan Yor gancıoglu announced that he would not be a candidate in the upcoming extraordinary general congress of CTP-BG to be held on 14th of June 2015. Similarly, UBP announced an early congress in October 2015. In this connection, the electoral success of inde€ pendent candidate Kudret Ozersay in the first round of the elections is expected to lead the establishment of a new political party at the centre that addresses a political change and social transformation in North Cyprus. In his inaugural speech at the Handover Ceremony on 28 April, Akıncı emphasized three areas of concentration: domestic politics, the Cyprus problem, and relations with Turkey7. In terms of domestic politics, Akıncı promised an independent and impartial presidency and declared that he will work for clean politics, transparency, and a struggle against corruption. For the Cyprus problem, he argued that “this country cannot tolerate any more wasted time” and “unresolved in Cyprus is not sustainable”. Therefore, he promised to act decisively with a solution-oriented policy in accordance with the will of the Turkish Cypriot people within the framework of the Joint Statement signed on February 11, 2014. Akıncı also called for direct trade from Famagusta Port, direct flights from Ercan Airport in the North Cyprus, and to terminate the isolation of Turkish Cypriots in return for the opening of Maras city under the UN supervision. Akıncı also repeated that relations with Turkey should not be that of a parent and child, but more as equals an of as in a sibling relationship. In response, President Erdog Turkey said “Mr. President's ears should hear what comes out of his mouth…for Turkey, Northern Cyprus is our children”.8 Despite this polemic, Akinci made his first official visit to Turkey on May 6th, and Erdogan's welcome of Akıncı called Northern Cyprus a “brother state”r9 demonstrating a thaw between the two leaders.
4
Toparlanıyoruz Movement Official Page. Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee. Available at: http://ysk. mahkemeler.net/secim.aspx?skod¼33. 6 For example the survey of Kyrenia Research Institute suggested that he would only win 5.1% of the votes while as the highest estimation Gezici Survey Company suggested that he would win approximately 11.4%. 5
7
Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v¼Hwp4r9xkJhs. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v¼kJgpLJb_jqU. 9 Available at: http://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-ve-kktccumhurbaskani-akincidan-basin-toplantisi,iyNloJtuCku5AGPDN8GVwA. 8
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To sum up, the 2015 Presidential election in Northern Cyprus brings fresh hope for the settlement of the Cyprus problem. Turkish Cypriot's message of reconciliation creates new momentum towards a resolution. The results have also been welcomed by the international community and by the Greek Cypriots. Greek Cypriot leadership that left the negotiation table in October 2014 returned to negotiations on 15 May 2015 with renewed expectations for the federal settlement. Acknowledgements I would like to thank Bryan H. Smith for his comments and suggestions. References
Gezici Survey Company Results. (accessed 11.04.15.) from: http://haberkibris.com/ iste-anket-sonuclari-kim-onde-2015-04-02.html. Kyrenia Research Institute Survey Results. (accessed 17.04.15.) from: http://www. gau.edu.tr/haber/1942/gae_cumhurbaskanligi_secimi_anket_sonuclarini_ acikladi. Kıbrıs Gazetesi. (accessed 16.03.15.) from: http://www.kibrisgazetesi.com/? p¼620209. LGC News. (accessed 15.03.15.) from: http://www.lgcnews.com/trnc-citizens-rejectconstitutional-reforms-62/. Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee Web Page. www.mahkemeler. net. Siber, Sibel Official Page. Available at: http://m.sibelsiber2015.com/. The Association of the Balkan News Agencies Southeast Europe. (accessed 19.05.15.) from: http://www.abnaorg.eu/tag/sovereignty/. Toparlanıyoruz Movement Official Page. (accessed 12.05.15.) from: http://www. toparlaniyoruz.org/new-social-movement-toparlaniyoruz-publishedin-cyprustoday/#more-774. TRNC Constitution. Available at: http://www.mahkemeler.net/cgi-bin/anayasa.aspx.
Adabasını. (accessed 14.04.15.) from: http://www.adabasini.com/haber/derviseroglu-ben-kktcye-inanan-herkesten-oy-istiyorum-220302.html.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.09.007
Election note: Botswana's 2014 parliamentary elections Amy R. Poteete Department of Political Science, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd. W., Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada
a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 18 March 2015 Received in revised form 4 May 2015 Accepted 4 May 2015 Available online 2 June 2015
1. Introduction On 24 October 2014, Botswana elected its eleventh parliament. The BDP1 retained power with 65% of the elected seats; the appointment of four SEMPs boosted the government's legislative majority up to 67%. For the first time, however, it received less than half of the vote (46.5%). 2. Rules and background In Botswana's parliamentary system, MPs are elected every five years by simple majority in single member districts. If a party wins an absolute legislature majority, its presidential nominee becomes the President with no vote of investiture. If elections produce a hung parliament, the elected MPs must elect the President by secret
E-mail address: [email protected]. Abbreviations are listed alphabetically: BCP: Botswana Congress Party; BDP: Botswana Democratic Party; BMD: Botswana Movement for Democracy; BNF: Botswana National Front; BPP: Botswana People's Party; DIS: Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services; IEC: Independent Electoral Commission; SEMP: specially elected member of parliament; and UDC: Umbrella for Democratic Change. 1
ballot. The President nominates the Vice President from among the elected MPs, subject to a confirmation vote. The elected MPs also elect four SEMPs. 2.1. Electoral context Every election to date has produced a legislative majority for the BDP. The BDP controlled more than 75% of the elected seats in the first six legislatures. Prior to 2014, its share of the elected seats had never fallen below 66%. The BDP's vote share, however, fell sharply in 1994, to 54.4%. It recovered slightly in 1999, but hovered just above 50% in 2004 and 2009 before dropping to 46.5% in 2014 (Poteete, 2012; IEC, 2014). The BDP owes its legislative dominance since 1994 to opposition disunity. The main opposition party, the BNF, split in 1998, leading to the formation of the BCP. Efforts to foster opposition cooperation prior to the 2004 and 2009 elections foundered in the face of mutual distrust. Then, in 2010, the BDP split, giving birth to the BMD. In early 2012, the BNF, BMD, and BPP formed a federation of parties, the UDC. The BCP contested the 2014 elections on its own. 2.2. Economic conditions While overall GDP growth rates looked favorable for the incumbents in 2014, trends in non-mining GDP were troubling. Over the course of the electoral cycle (2009e2014), GDP grew by an estimated average of 5.75% (Statistics Botswana, 2011, 2013, 2014).2 Because mineral earnings mostly affect government revenues, changes in GDP excluding mineral earnings give a better indication of the economic
2 Growth rates for 2014 have been estimated based on data for the first three quarters of the year (Statistics Botswana, 2014).
Gaburici, a 38-year-old businessman, had not held political office previously. Significantly, Voronin (former PCRM prime minister) endorsed his appointment, suggesting that such an unconnected figure was necessary. However, with no previous political experience, Gaburici was established as a puppet to be manipulated rather than empowered. Gaburici's weak position became evident in dealing with the ‘lost billion’ scandal, in which it emerged during 2014 that 15% of Moldova's GDP had disappeared from three of Moldova's largest banks; these have since been placed under special administration. Frustrated at the intractability of the relationship between Moldovan politics and the banking crisis, Gaburici lasted just four months in office before resigning in June 2015 under the auspices of his own scandal, concerning allegations of fake degrees. At the time of writing (September 2015), a new government had been formed, the ‘Alliance for European Integration 3’ led by PLDM candidate Valeriu Strelet¸ as prime minister. This follows the rejection of PLDM's previous candidate, Maia Sandu (Education Minister 2012e2015), by PL and PDM, who objected to her overly tough stance in tackling the banking crisis (e.g. her desire to remove the head of the National Bank of Moldova). Strelet¸, as a wealthy career politician, is therefore likely to be a weak prime minister, beholden to the strongmen of the pro-European coalition (Vlad Filat and Vlad Plahotniuc) and their interests, and out of touch with public concern over rising economic uncertainty, heightened by the hole in Moldova's finances. However, the continuous instability of the governmental coalitions, and the political and economic scandals that have repeatedly led to their demise, means that support and trust for the pro-European coalition is suffering, most notably the ascendancy of Demnitate s¸i Adeva r a new civic society movement (Platforma Civica (DA), Civic Platform for Dignity and Truth) which since May 2015 had been organising protests that culminated in the largest protest in Moldova's history on 6 September 2015, in a call for early elections, the resignation of Moldova's President, Nicolae Timofti, and a fuller investigation of the banking fraud. As such, the question remains how long the Alliance can hold off early elections before 2018 and whether they will win enough seats to be able to form a coalition in future elections, threatened both by the pro-Russian PSRM
441
and the emergence of potentially new political forces from within civil society, such as DA.
References Botan, I., 2010. Why the d’Hondt seat distribution method was given up? E-Democracy. http://www.e-democracy.md/en/monitoring/politics/comments/ robin-hood-formula (accessed 05.07.15.). Cantir, Cristian, 2011. The parliamentary election in the Republic of Moldova, November 2010. Elect. Stud. 30.4, 880e883. Champion, M., 2014. ‘Russia's Project Moldova’ Bloomberg View, 24th November 2014. http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-24/russias-projectmoldova (accessed 05.07.15.). Council of Europe, 2003. MOLDOVA - Opinion on the Election Law. http://vota.te. gob.mx/content/moldova-opinion-election-law (accessed 05.07.15.). Danero Iglesias, J., 2015. An Ad Hoc nation an analysis of moldovan election campaign clips. East Eur. Polit. Soc. duminica viitoare s-ar organiza alegeri pentru ParlaE-Democracy, 2014. Daca mentul RM, cu ce partid at¸i vota? (If next Sunday there were elections for the Parliament of Moldova, for which party would you vote?) http://www.edemocracy.md/elections/parliamentary/2014/public-opinion-polls/ (accessed 02.07.15.). Herszenhorn, D.M., 2014. Moldova Vote Gives Edge to Parties Looking West. New York Times, 1st Dec, 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/world/europe/ moldova-parliament-elections.html (accessed 01 12.14.). Knott, E., 2013. ‘Whatever Happened to Moldova's Twitter Generation?’ UCL SSEES Research Blog, 16 September 2013. https://blogs.ucl.ac.uk/ssees/2013/09/16/ whatever-happened-to-moldovastwitter-generation/ (acccessed 16.09.13.). OSCE, 2014a. Republic of Moldova: Parliamentary Elections 30 November 2014, OSCE/ODIHR Needs Assessment Mission Report 2-14th September 2014. http:// www.osce.org/odihr/elections/moldova/123800?download¼true (accessed 05.07.15.). OSCE, 2014b. Republic of Moldova: Parliamentary Elections 30 November 2014, OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report. http://www.osce.org/ odihr/elections/moldova/144196?download¼true (accessed 05.07.15.). Promo-LEX, 2015. Final Report: on the Monitoring of 30 November 2014 Parliamentary Elections. http://www.promolex.md/upload/publications/en/doc_ 1424160345.pdf (accessed 05.07.15.). Renato Usatîi recunoas¸te c Publika, M.D., 2014. Declarat¸ii BOMBA: a este prizonierul Moscovei (Bomb Declaration: Renato Usatîi recognises that he's a prisoner of Moscow). http://www.publika.md/declaratii-bomba–renato-usatii-recunoasteca-este-prizonierul-moscovei-video_2168491.html (accessed 05.07.15.). Samuelson, A., 2013. Frustration and Creativity: Environmentalism in the Republic of Moldova. Unpublished PhD Thesis. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Seton-Watson, H., 1963. The East European Revolution, third ed. Praeger, New York. Vdovii, L., 2014. A Firebrand Aims for Moldova's Seat of Power, Transitions Online, 24th November 2014. http://www.tol.org/client/article/24573-a-firebrandaims-for-moldovas-seat-of-power.html (accessed 05.07.15.).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.09.002
Northern Cyprus presidential elections, April 2015 Hüseyin Is¸ıksal Department of International Relations, Girne American University, Girne 99428, North Cyprus
a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 1 September 2015 Accepted 13 September 2015 Available online 30 September 2015
E-mail address: [email protected].
The ninth presidential elections were held in Northern Cyprus in April 2015. The first round was completed on April 19, 2015. Since no candidate was able to get 50% of the votes, the two top candidates of the first round, the incumbent president from the rightlu, and the independent left-wing candidate, wing Dr. Dervis¸ Erog Mustafa Akıncı, progressed to the second round. The second round, held on April 26, was won by Akıncı who became the fourth President and the new leader of Turkish Cypriots. Although the turnout rate of the elections was the lowest in Northern Cyprus' electoral history, the results brought fresh hope and created new momentum for the federal settlement of the Cyprus problem.
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Notes on recent elections / Electoral Studies 40 (2015) 430e447
1. Background Although the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is officially recognized only by Turkey, it has a democratic legacy and elected President since 1976. The TRNC holds regularly scheduled Presidential Elections every five years. The High Electoral Council announced the date of the ninth Presidential elections on February 22, 2015. The country entered the elections under the atmosphere of uncertainty and mistrust. On the one hand, on September 8, 2014 Republic of Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades left the negotiation table by claiming that Turkey was exploring gas in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Republic of Cyprus. Anastasiades added that he would not resume peace talks until Turkey showed respect to the sovereignty rights of Cyprus (ABNA-SE News). On the other hand, a referendum on constitutional amendments, held on June 29, 2014, was rejected by 62.3% of the TRNC citizens even though the proposals had support from the lu (LGC News). three major parties of the Parliament and President Erog This result was a clear demonstration of mistrust of the politicians in Northern Cyprus. Under these circumstances many wondered whether the right-wing incumbent president or the challenging left-wing candidate would win the elections. 2. Electoral process and system North Cyprus is described in its Constitution as a parliamentary system. In practice, however, it operates as semi-presidential system. According to the Constitution of Northern Cyprus, the President of the Republic is the Head of the State. The President appoints the Prime Minister from among the members of parliament and can appoint and terminate the Ministers upon the recommendation of the Prime Minister.1 The President also has the power to reject the laws approved by the Assembly through the opinion of the Supreme Court. Lastly, the President represents the Turkish Cypriot people in the international arena as the leader of the community. Therefore, the main duty of the President is to represent Turkish Cypriots in the negotiations for the settlement of the Cyprus problem. The 2015 election rules were consistent with all the previous Presidential elections since 1976. A president is elected for five years and should poll the absolute majority of the eligible votes. Unless any candidate ensures the absolute majority, the election is repeated 7 days later in a second round between the two candidates who received the highest votes. Candidates for President should be an university graduate, at least 35 years old, born from a Turkish mother and father, a TRNC citizen, and have lived in North Cyprus for at least the last five years2. Every TRNC citizen who is over 18 years old at the time of voting and legally registered is a valid voter. The presidential elections are held according to the principles of universal direct suffrage. Votes are conducted through a secret ballot. Counting and recording of votes are made openly. 3. Candidates and election campaign Northern Cyprus election rules allowed for a thirty day campaign period before each election. The campaign period for the 2015 Presidential Elections ran from March 19th to April 18th. Twenty-four hours before the election, campaigns are restricted by law. Seven candidates contested in this election. President Dr. lu, President of the National Assembly Sibel Siber, inDervis¸ Erog dependent left candidate Mustafa Akıncı, independent candidate € (InKudret Ozersay, and three other candidates Arif Salih Kırdag dependent), Mustafa Onurer (Cyprus Socialist Party), and Mustafa
1 2
See Part Four Article 102 of the TRNC Constitution. See Part Four Article 99(1) of the TRNC Constitution.
Ulas¸ (Independent) applied to the High Electoral Council to stand in the election. The significance of these elections compared to the previous elections was the high number of main candidates that is contested for the presidency. Unlike the 2010 Presidential Elections where there were only two main candidates, the 2015 Elections had four front-running candidates in the race. Candidates campaigned by: giving out booklets, making personal appeals, holding meetings, publicizing via media advertisements and road-side billboards, organising rallies in the main cities, parading in road shows, and facing off in TV programmes. In addition to the traditional ways of campaigning, the candidates used social media extensively to communicate with the voters. € Ozersay in a greater extent, and Akıncı and Siber in a lesser extent, made use of social media. The campaign period was peaceful with only minor infractions, such as the destruction of some of the candidates' posters. The favourite candidate on paper before the election was Dr. lu, 77 years old and the incumbent president. Erog lu Dervis¸ Erog had acted as the Prime Minister of the TRNC for more than 18 years (1985e1994, 1996e2004, 2009e2010) as the leader of center-right Ulusal Birlik Partisi (UBP, National Unity Party). In 2010 he became the third President of the TRNC (after Rauf Denktas¸ and Mehmet Ali lu attended to the elections Talat) securing 61.4% of the votes. Erog as an independent candidate. The two main parties of the right, however, the main opposition party, UBP, and a smaller partner of the coalition government Demokrat Parti (DP, Democratic Party) lu. Although he is known as declared their full support to Erog lu based his elecnationalist and a status quo political figure, Erog toral campaign on a ‘final, just, and sustainable settlement of the Cyprus problem’ (Kıbrıs Gazetesi). He argued that the 2015 election is so critical that Turkish Cypriots should give him a mandate to finalize the Cyprus problem at the earliest possible date by protecting the rights of Turkish Cypriots (Adabasını). The only female candidate of the 2015 election, Dr. Sibel Siber, is a member of parliament since 2009 and from the main party of the coalition government Cumhuriyetci Türk Partisi-Birles¸ik Güçler (CTPBG, Republican Turkish Party-United Forces). In the 2013 parliamentary elections she received the highest votes among all the elected members of the parliament3. Before the 2013 elections, she was the acting Prime Minister for two months of the transition government, and after the elections she was elected as the Speaker of the Parliament. Dr. Siber focused her electoral campaign on change, resuming the Cyprus problem negotiations, a transparent presidency, and issues of trust and leadership. Siber also proposed the establishment of various expert committees for the solution of both the Cyprus and communal problems (Siber). Independent left-wing candidate Mustafa Akıncı, supported by the Communal Democracy Party and the United Cyprus Party, initiated his political career at the age of 27 when he was a member of the first Constituent Assembly of Northern Cyprus in 1975. One year later, he became the first elected mayor of the Turkish side of the capital city, Nicosia, holding this position for three consecutive terms (1976e1990). During this time, he successfully completed a major sewer project and shared the World Habitat Award for the “Nicosia Master Plan” by collaborating with his Greek Cypriot counterpart. From 1987 to 2001, he served as the leader of Communal Liberation Party and from 1993 to 2009 he was a member of the TRNC parliament. Akıncı used the olive branch as his campaign emblem symbolizing peace and Turkish Cypriot roots. Akıncı based his 2015 Presidential electoral campaign on four points: solution oriented politics, sensitivity to communal affairs,
3 Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee. Available at: http://ysk. mahkemeler.net/secim.aspx?skod¼36.
Notes on recent elections / Electoral Studies 40 (2015) 430e447 Table 1 Results of the Northern Cyprus presidential elections, 19e26 April 2015. Candidates
First round Votes
lu (independent) Dr. Dervis¸ Erog Mustafa Akıncı (independent) Dr. Sibel Siber (CTP-BG) € Kudret Ozersay (independent) Other candidates Invalid ballots Totals Registered votes/turnout
Second round Votes (%)
30,328 29,030 24,271 22,895
28.15 26.94 22.53 21.25
1,217 2,562 110,303 176,916
1.13 2,679 100.00 62.35
Votes
Votes (%)
43,763 67,032
39.50 60.50
110,799 176,980
100.00 64.12
Source: Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee (www.mahkemeler.net)
mutually respectful relations with Turkey, and an independent and objective presidency. During his campaign, Akıncı argued that he would vigorously work for the settlement of the Cyprus problem. He also called for a more equal and brotherly relationship with Turkey emphasizing he would neither “surrender nor establish a confrontational relationship” with Turkey. € Born in 1973, Mr. Kudret Ozersay, an International Relations lu between Professor, was the chief negotiator of President Erog € 2012 and 2014. Ozersay also made himself known as the leader of Toparlanıyoruz (Pulling Ourselves Together) movement that was established in 2012. Toparlanıyoruz, an independent, new social movement aims at combating corruption and promoting transparency and accountability in North Cyprus with a “bottom up” € campaign4. Ozersay based his campaign on good governance and € leadership. Ozersay argued that it is possible for Turkish Cypriots to administer themselves based upon their free will, merit, and reason. He also promised a presidency with improved democratic € institutions. Ozersay underlined active diplomatic policies in the negotiations by referencing his background and experiences. His slogan, “It's better if you choose”, argued that the electorate should free themselves of party affiliation and vote for the best candidate. 4. Election results The Presidential Election was held on Sunday, April 19th. Polls were open from 8:00 am to 6:00 pm, and 176,916 voters cast ballots at 693 ballot boxes. The turnout rate was the lowest in Northern Cyprus history (62.35%), and lower than in 2010 (76.4%) elections5. Turnout in Northern Cyprus has been on a steady downward trend since the 2010 Presidential Elections, so a low turnout was not lu achieved the highest votes in the first unexpected. Although Erog round with 28%, this was a big disappointment for him since the two main right wing parties that supported him achieved more than 50% of the votes in the 2013 Parliamentary Elections (Table1). On the other hand, the CTP-BG candidate Siber received only 22.5% of the votes, and failed to advance to the second round. This, despite her party winning the 2013 Parliamentary elections with 38.4% of the votes. Akıncı, who finished second with 27% of the votes, managed to win votes from the CTP-BG as well as the right wing constituency since the two main parties that supported him only get around 10% of the votes in the 2013 Parliamentary Elections. € The main surprise of the first round was Kudret Ozersay. Pre€ € election surveys gave Ozersay no chance.6 Ozersay was an
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independent candidate with no support from any political party € with limited campaign funds. Despite these difficulties, Ozersay achieved more than 21% of the votes. For the first time in Northern Cyprus history an independent candidate with no political party support was able to win such a high portion of the votes, although € Ozersay has no political background and it was his first election. Since none of the candidates received enough votes to be eleclu and Mustafa Akıncı ted President in the first round, Dervis¸ Erog competed for the Presidency in the second round. In the second € round the CTP-BG decided to actively support Akıncı, while Ozersay did not give support to any candidate. The second round was held on Sunday, April 26th and had a similar voter turnout as the first lu round (64.12%). Akıncı won the election with 60.5%, while Erog managed only 39.5%. This meant that Akıncı was not only supported by left-wing voters but again pulled votes from the rightwing constituency. 5. Implications First, the election results imply that Turkish Cypriots, who do not have a clear political vision of the future, voted for the change and settlement of the Cyprus problem. Akıncı has a political legacy of being within the pro-solution camp for more than forty years and is a highly respected figure in both sides of Cyprus. Second, voters reacted against the nepotism, partisanship, and corruption of the established mainstream parties and governments. The candidates who established their campaigns on ‘change and good governance’ received more than 70% of the votes in the first round. € Immediately after the elections Prime Minister Ozkan Yor gancıoglu announced that he would not be a candidate in the upcoming extraordinary general congress of CTP-BG to be held on 14th of June 2015. Similarly, UBP announced an early congress in October 2015. In this connection, the electoral success of inde€ pendent candidate Kudret Ozersay in the first round of the elections is expected to lead the establishment of a new political party at the centre that addresses a political change and social transformation in North Cyprus. In his inaugural speech at the Handover Ceremony on 28 April, Akıncı emphasized three areas of concentration: domestic politics, the Cyprus problem, and relations with Turkey7. In terms of domestic politics, Akıncı promised an independent and impartial presidency and declared that he will work for clean politics, transparency, and a struggle against corruption. For the Cyprus problem, he argued that “this country cannot tolerate any more wasted time” and “unresolved in Cyprus is not sustainable”. Therefore, he promised to act decisively with a solution-oriented policy in accordance with the will of the Turkish Cypriot people within the framework of the Joint Statement signed on February 11, 2014. Akıncı also called for direct trade from Famagusta Port, direct flights from Ercan Airport in the North Cyprus, and to terminate the isolation of Turkish Cypriots in return for the opening of Maras city under the UN supervision. Akıncı also repeated that relations with Turkey should not be that of a parent and child, but more as equals an of as in a sibling relationship. In response, President Erdog Turkey said “Mr. President's ears should hear what comes out of his mouth…for Turkey, Northern Cyprus is our children”.8 Despite this polemic, Akinci made his first official visit to Turkey on May 6th, and Erdogan's welcome of Akıncı called Northern Cyprus a “brother state”r9 demonstrating a thaw between the two leaders.
4
Toparlanıyoruz Movement Official Page. Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee. Available at: http://ysk. mahkemeler.net/secim.aspx?skod¼33. 6 For example the survey of Kyrenia Research Institute suggested that he would only win 5.1% of the votes while as the highest estimation Gezici Survey Company suggested that he would win approximately 11.4%. 5
7
Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v¼Hwp4r9xkJhs. Available at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v¼kJgpLJb_jqU. 9 Available at: http://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-ve-kktccumhurbaskani-akincidan-basin-toplantisi,iyNloJtuCku5AGPDN8GVwA. 8
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To sum up, the 2015 Presidential election in Northern Cyprus brings fresh hope for the settlement of the Cyprus problem. Turkish Cypriot's message of reconciliation creates new momentum towards a resolution. The results have also been welcomed by the international community and by the Greek Cypriots. Greek Cypriot leadership that left the negotiation table in October 2014 returned to negotiations on 15 May 2015 with renewed expectations for the federal settlement. Acknowledgements I would like to thank Bryan H. Smith for his comments and suggestions. References
Gezici Survey Company Results. (accessed 11.04.15.) from: http://haberkibris.com/ iste-anket-sonuclari-kim-onde-2015-04-02.html. Kyrenia Research Institute Survey Results. (accessed 17.04.15.) from: http://www. gau.edu.tr/haber/1942/gae_cumhurbaskanligi_secimi_anket_sonuclarini_ acikladi. Kıbrıs Gazetesi. (accessed 16.03.15.) from: http://www.kibrisgazetesi.com/? p¼620209. LGC News. (accessed 15.03.15.) from: http://www.lgcnews.com/trnc-citizens-rejectconstitutional-reforms-62/. Northern Cyprus the Supreme Election Committee Web Page. www.mahkemeler. net. Siber, Sibel Official Page. Available at: http://m.sibelsiber2015.com/. The Association of the Balkan News Agencies Southeast Europe. (accessed 19.05.15.) from: http://www.abnaorg.eu/tag/sovereignty/. Toparlanıyoruz Movement Official Page. (accessed 12.05.15.) from: http://www. toparlaniyoruz.org/new-social-movement-toparlaniyoruz-publishedin-cyprustoday/#more-774. TRNC Constitution. Available at: http://www.mahkemeler.net/cgi-bin/anayasa.aspx.
Adabasını. (accessed 14.04.15.) from: http://www.adabasini.com/haber/derviseroglu-ben-kktcye-inanan-herkesten-oy-istiyorum-220302.html.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.09.007
Election note: Botswana's 2014 parliamentary elections Amy R. Poteete Department of Political Science, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd. W., Montreal, QC H3G 1M8, Canada
a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 18 March 2015 Received in revised form 4 May 2015 Accepted 4 May 2015 Available online 2 June 2015
1. Introduction On 24 October 2014, Botswana elected its eleventh parliament. The BDP1 retained power with 65% of the elected seats; the appointment of four SEMPs boosted the government's legislative majority up to 67%. For the first time, however, it received less than half of the vote (46.5%). 2. Rules and background In Botswana's parliamentary system, MPs are elected every five years by simple majority in single member districts. If a party wins an absolute legislature majority, its presidential nominee becomes the President with no vote of investiture. If elections produce a hung parliament, the elected MPs must elect the President by secret
E-mail address: [email protected]. Abbreviations are listed alphabetically: BCP: Botswana Congress Party; BDP: Botswana Democratic Party; BMD: Botswana Movement for Democracy; BNF: Botswana National Front; BPP: Botswana People's Party; DIS: Directorate of Intelligence and Security Services; IEC: Independent Electoral Commission; SEMP: specially elected member of parliament; and UDC: Umbrella for Democratic Change. 1
ballot. The President nominates the Vice President from among the elected MPs, subject to a confirmation vote. The elected MPs also elect four SEMPs. 2.1. Electoral context Every election to date has produced a legislative majority for the BDP. The BDP controlled more than 75% of the elected seats in the first six legislatures. Prior to 2014, its share of the elected seats had never fallen below 66%. The BDP's vote share, however, fell sharply in 1994, to 54.4%. It recovered slightly in 1999, but hovered just above 50% in 2004 and 2009 before dropping to 46.5% in 2014 (Poteete, 2012; IEC, 2014). The BDP owes its legislative dominance since 1994 to opposition disunity. The main opposition party, the BNF, split in 1998, leading to the formation of the BCP. Efforts to foster opposition cooperation prior to the 2004 and 2009 elections foundered in the face of mutual distrust. Then, in 2010, the BDP split, giving birth to the BMD. In early 2012, the BNF, BMD, and BPP formed a federation of parties, the UDC. The BCP contested the 2014 elections on its own. 2.2. Economic conditions While overall GDP growth rates looked favorable for the incumbents in 2014, trends in non-mining GDP were troubling. Over the course of the electoral cycle (2009e2014), GDP grew by an estimated average of 5.75% (Statistics Botswana, 2011, 2013, 2014).2 Because mineral earnings mostly affect government revenues, changes in GDP excluding mineral earnings give a better indication of the economic
2 Growth rates for 2014 have been estimated based on data for the first three quarters of the year (Statistics Botswana, 2014).