Book reviews
An Iranian view of energy issues REVOLUTION AND EVOLUTION OF ENERGY POLICIES IN IRAN
products, on the other, how much oil will,actually be available for export by O P E C countries?' by Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani The growth of the internal consumption of petroleum products within Iran California Seminar on Anns Control is an important factor to which the and Foreign Policy, Discussion Paper author draws attention, for already Iran is the highest consumer of such No87, 1980, 68pp, $2.25. products a m o n g OPEC Middle East This short book is an updated and countries. enlarged version of a talk, 'An Iranian In Section III, Mr Mossavarview of energy issues', originally Rahmani analyses Iran's energy supply delivered at a meeting of the California sources and strategies under separate Seminar on Arms Control and Foreign subheadings (oil, natural gas, coal and Policy in December 1978. The nuclear power), and wherever possible Seminar, which was established to statistics are released up to the year broaden the geographic base of the 1978. national debate on foreign policy, The book is concluded by proposing deterrence and arms control, is jointly some policy guidelines. The policy sponsored by the California Institute of Technology and by the Rand Corporation. Naturally the events of the recent I r a n - I r a q war have radically altered the energy scene in Iran and the contents of this book have to be reviewed in the light of the fact that it NUCLEAR POWER AND LEGAL was written in the pre-war (ie pre- ADVOCACY September 1980) period. After examining Iran's role, energy by Constance Ewing Cook options and strategies in an international setting (Section I), the book 172 pp, £11.50, Lexington Books, MA, Toronto, and investigates energy demand patterns Lexington, and projections in Iran and then turns Farnborough, Hants, UK, 1980 to the country's resource base and choices for individual fuel policies in the context of an integrated national What has a political scientist's analysis energy plan (Section II). The author of litigation by special interest groups emphasizes the need, in the aftermath got to do with energy policy? Readers of the revolution, to estimate potential of Dr Constance Ewing Cook's recent energy demand by region, fuel source book Nuclear Power and Legal and end-use sector; to evaluate the Advocacy will find the answer to be availability and costs of alternative 'quite a lot', as she makes a persuasive energy sources; and to examine the showing that in countries where special economic, political, technical and interest groups - in this case, environsocial aspects of alternative mentalists and nuclear critics in the programmes for expanding energy use U S A - have ready access to courts, they can, by litigation, accomplish the in Iran. In part the author seeks to answer delay of major new energy supply the question: 'Given the physical facilities; run up their capital costs; and restrictions - some self-imposed, so increase costs of production, others not - on oil production capacity, perhaps enough to diminish support for on the one hand, and rapidly growing them. According to the author, use of legal internal requirement for petroleum
recommendations are of a general nature, such as expansion of domestic natural gas consumption, promotion of the use of liquified petroleum gases in areas not served by natural gas, cancelling the nuclear power programme etc. This volume on the whole complements the work of Dr Fesharaki, ~ reviewed above. Although studies of this nature are valuable and enlightening, unfortunately they need to be continually revised and updated given the volatile political situation of Iran.
Homa Motamen Imperial College London, UK
'Fereidun Fesharaki, Revolution and Energy Policy in Iran (EIU Special Report No 82), The Economist IntelligenceUnit Ltd, London, 1980.
David v Goliath -litigating to delay energy supply
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advocacy by interest groups to cause delay is a subject in need of attention, which she proceeds to give. Beginning with some background on the nuclear power controversy in the USA, Cook provides a useful survey of US antinuclear groups and compares them in organization and resources with the nuclear industry, painting a David and Goliath picture. Next,the functions of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and its regulatory processes are outlined together with information on the statutory basis for judicial review of the NRC's regulatory decisions. Then comes the heart of this book, taking the form of a survey of major judicial decisions in nuclear power litigation and her assessment of their effects. The remainder of the volume provides a case study of litigation undertaken to delay construction of a large nuclear power plant at Midland, Michigan. Cook chose this case as an extreme version of similar attempts at opposition through litigation. She traces the case through the US District
E N E R G Y POLICY June 1981
Book reviews
Court up to the Supreme Court and its decision and rebuke to the lower courts. For her, the case shows how the impact of the regulatory and judicial process is a deterrent to the development of nuclear power. A final chapter summarizes the conclusions of her research, forecasts continued legal advocacy in the nuclear controversy, and attributes much of the decline of the US nuclear industry to this legal advocacy. Cook's analysis sees legal advocacy as a new, non-traditional political tactic, a form of 'guerrilla warfare' in the struggle between the interest groups and the power companies. Why the David of nuclear opposition has prevailed over the Goliath of the industry she explains by: 'The popular image of a David and Goliath scenario obscures the fact that Goliath's impotence stems, in large part, from the government regulatory process'. Fear of unofficial retaliation by the NRC officials is the reason she gives for the reluctance of the nuclear utilities to resort also to litigation. As for the future, the post Three Mile Island era for nuclear power is likely, in her view, to produce more restrictive legislation that will further the use of legal advocacy, although perhaps both opponents and advocates of nuclear power might turn to it. Absent a generally accepted energy plan with definite provisions for nuclear power, this legal web binding the nuclear utilities will remain unravelled.
Fulcrum and lever Stepping back from the details of Cook's analysis, one can see a strong presumption that the US courts will remain open to litigation by nuclear opponents and that the courts are willing to continue to provide both fulcrum and lever for special interest groups to move society in the directions of their beliefs without having to gain the support of the electorate or their representatives. A fulcrum, however, must rest upon a firm base, else it will sink into the earth. In this case, the fulcrum for litigation rests upon the assumption that the courts will continue to allow themselves to be used
ENERGY POLICY June 1981
in the nuclear controversy. The courts, however, live in a political environment. They might well respond differently in the 1980s if the electorate decides to lay the blame for shortages and increased costs of fuel and energy at the door of opponents. From the standpoint of policy for energy supply, few readers will lay down Dr Cook's compact volume without an improved understanding of the critical value of time and the costs of delay in the building of a large energy project, and of tactics to cause delays. Such costs represent a diseconomy of scale, one that the engineers tend to gloss over in their arguments that fewer and bigger facilities are better than more and smaller. The book is also a reminder that
decisions about energy policy if made in vacuum can arouse fears and opposition amongst those who feel threatened in person, in property, in beliefs or in values by policy decisions. Inattention to such fears can cause the fearful to resort to any available weapon in defence of their interest. The writing is clear and direct. A good bibliography, a table of legal cases, and a short chronology of the Midland, MI, case all add to the usefulness of this book. It is well worth reading.
Warren H. Donnelly Congressional Research Service The Library of Congress Washington, DC, USA
Alternatives to the OPEC monopoly? INTERNATIONAL OIL POLICY
that his viewpoint is sound. Unfortunately, the exposition is somewhat disjointed and this leads to by Arnold Safer some uneasiness in fully sensing the 163 pp, £9.50, Lexington Books, continuity of his argument. To see what is meant in this regard, the running Lexington, MA, 1979 narrative will be reviewed sequentially. After the opening chapter, the reader is immediately confronted with The basic premise of this short a testimony which Safer presented to monograph by Arnold Safer can be the US Energy Subcommittee of the succinctly put as follows. By promoting Joint Economic Committee in 1978 the idea of an impending world scarcity concerning the principal objectives of of oil, the US government has become US government energy policy. These paralysed, unable to take the steps that objectives are the achievement of the might weaken some of OPEC's price greatest possible independence from and monopoly-priced setting powers. Every consumer of oil unreliable must now pay the price dictated by the foreign oil and the prevention of energy foreign cartel, but there is no shortage shortages from causing economic of oil in the world nor is there likely to dislocations. Both prescriptions are desirable but be for several decades. Although the USA may have to import large their implications are incompletely quantities of oil in the future, it can worked out. This is a serious failing learn to do it in a more effective since the implications form an essential manner. Alternatives exist to the ingredient in assessing the efficacy of the argument. acceptance of the OPEC monopoly. Given this persepctive, which is laid After the policy recommendations out in the first chapter, Safer proceeds chapter, one finds a chapter on the with an attempt to convince the reader world oil outlook, which logically
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