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Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data
Middle East Fertility Society Journal (2013) 18, 147–153
Middle East Fertility Society
Middle East Fertility Society Journal www.mefsjournal.org www.sciencedirect.com
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Asharaf Abdul Salam
*
Center for Population Studies, King Saud University, P.O. No. 2454, Riyadh 11541, Saudi Arabia Received 19 January 2013; accepted 18 April 2013 Available online 26 June 2013
KEYWORDS Marriage; Family planning; Parity; Children ever born; Sterility
Abstract Saudi Arabia constitutes bulk of the Arabian Peninsula. Higher birth and lower death rate with higher levels of expectation of life characterizes Saudi Arabian demography. This attempt at appraising nuptiality and fertility is based on censuses. Marriage patterns are changing with higher age at marriage; increasing ever marriage and reducing adolescent marriage, divorces and polygamy. Fertility, was captured from children ever born, parity, and births during 12 months prior to 2004 census and sterility. The children ever born to Saudi Arabian ever married women were 3.8. Women of higher age had higher number of children ever born. Fertility levels remained higher but with a larger proportion of woman at zero parity even among those above 45 years – indication of sterility. Fertility transition was under way as a result of improved female education, value of children, higher age at marriage and reduced infant and child mortality rate. Ó 2013 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Middle East Fertility Society.
1. Introduction Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula is going through changes on all dimensions of demography since the formation. Pronatalist policies and declaration of birth control in any form and under any circumstance as contrary to the faith of Islam (1) lead to high fertility in this low mortality set up (2); creating wider growth. An overwhelmingly young population having a higher birth rate but a lower death rate, lower infant mortality and higher * Tel.: +966 568862222. E-mail address: [email protected]. Peer review under responsibility of Middle East Fertility Society.
Production and hosting by Elsevier
levels of life expectancy characterizes growing population in the Kingdom. Such a change in demography, in birth and death rates, was started during 1970s. Birth rates declined along social transformations in the Kingdom. Studies revealed higher fertility levels in the Kingdom, which showed a declining trend along with the increase in education and age at marriage (3,4). The current less significant fertility decline (5) can be attributed to the Kingdom’s less favorable position at par with female education and infant mortality rates. High fertility during the 1980s and 1990s was emphasized as well (6,7). Reproductive behavior in the Kingdom was not much researched with national samples even though regional small sample studies were conducted. Fertility in the Kingdom has registered a declining trend; showing signs of fertility transition (8) from a high of about 7 to a low of about 4.5 during the last 15 years, which may be due to (i) delay in marriage (ii) household characteristics – child death and urban residence or (iii) spatial distribution of development. Contraceptive use has
1110-5690 Ó 2013 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Middle East Fertility Society. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mefs.2013.04.006
148 no significant effect on birth control but has an effect on birth spacing. Variables namely son preference, child death, type of family and geographic location are significant determinants of fertility. These findings are again emphasized through a study of a northern desert of the Kingdom that (i) higher average number of children ever born (ii) polygamous marriages and (iii) woman’s characteristics and familial attributes were related to fertility behavior (9). Little has been known about fertility in Saudi Arabia. The available fertility studies were limited in number and geographic scope as most of the studies were conducted in Riyadh and were based on small samples raising contradictory results (8); for e.g., fertility’s positive relation with husband’s education (10) as against its negative relation (11). Fertility has positive relation with household economy (12). TFR was found to be 4.53 in 1999, which was lower than expected. Fertility had taken a declining trend recently with a clear indication of fertility transition. TFR had fallen from 7.06 (1985) to 6.46 (1987) to 4.5 (1999), over the period. In the light of social changes that the society was experiencing as a result of remarkable expansion in females’ education and recent encouragement to wider participation of women in labor force and involvement in development and societal matters in general; a further rise in the age at marriage could be accompanied by a decline in desired family size. Age at first marriage, child death, education, living in monogamous marriages and son preference were important determinants of fertility behavior (9). Declining birth rates along social transformation was evident. For example, a study at a region of Saudi Arabia (4) revealed higher fertility levels but indicated decreasing parity along increasing education and increasing age at marriage. Saudi National Child Health Survey data revealed less number of marriages before 18 years; a higher proportion of marriage of males above 30 years and females between 20 and 24 years; increasing widowhood rate along with increasing age and large proportion of marriages between first cousins especially among illiterate and rural females and consanguinity and divorces and widowhood persists in the Kingdom (3). Improved female education or reduced family income due to lowered prices of petroleum exports had not imparted upon fertility levels. High fertility in Saudi Arabia was emphasized as a demographic lag – difference from theoretical-actual-demographic dynamics – featuring population size and growth, fertility, mortality, status of women and contraceptive use (6,7); based on per capita income and rapid economic growth (13). 2. Objectives An appraisal of nuptiality and fertility from National Census held during 1992 and 2004. 3. Methodology The current study is based on census data as the source of information. There were five censuses conducted in the Kingdom during 1962/63, 1974, 1992, 2004 and 2010. Census operation has not been stabilized since data on marriages and fertility were given only in 2004 (14). The marriage pattern data were available on 1992 census as well (15). Census operations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are under the Central Department of Statistics and Information
A.A. Salam (Central Agency for Statistics) and multi suit of statistical centers and units formed within the administrative structures of government agencies and some private sector institutions under a technical supervision done by the Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI). 4. Results 4.1. Nuptiality Nuptial knot leads to demographic change in any population as it sets the onset of reproduction. A basic indicator of nuptiality namely marital status explains the reproductive trend (Table 1). Indirectly, it indicates reproductive wastages, future of infant and child mortality and health status of future generations. Age at marriage determines age at conception, which again reflects the years of active reproductive life. Marriages in Saudi Arabia under the Shariat Mehr system follow consanguinity to a large extent. Teenage marriages were common in the Kingdom but were reduced with time and development in socio-economic sectors. A total of 6.6% of persons below 20 years were ever married as on 1992 (0.7% among males and 12.5% among females). This shows a higher gap in age at marriage between male and female. Ever married persons were most common above the age of 30 years, which shows that age at marriage was slightly below 30 (25–29 years). Widowhood rates were higher among those aged 60 years and above. Gap between the proportions of males and females in terms of marriages below 20 years of age was wide. Yet another observation made was difference in the proportion of widowed persons among males (1.8%) and females (11.6%), possibly, due to age difference between husband and wife. During 2004, only 64.1% were ever married out of the population aged 18 years or above; the proportion was least in case of those below 20 years. Out of the ever married persons, 93.7% remained as currently married; the proportion was least in case of those aged 65 years and above, where widowhood was a noticeable characteristic (Table 2). Age at marriage remained higher among males that the ever married persons below 20 years was 6.7% points lower than that of females. This shows the gap between age at marriage of males and females, which was reflected in the widowhood rates as well. As males marry females of lower age, the years of widowed life remained higher in case of females. 4.2. Fertility A demographic process having relevance to all spheres of human life is fertility, which refers to human reproduction that adds people. Fertility indicators available on 2004 census report include children ever born per ever married women, parity of ever married women and number of births to ever married women by age during the last 12 months preceding the census. Such details on fertility were provided only on 2004 census; specific to native population. 4.2.1. Children ever born (CEB) Ever married native women (aged 15 years and above) in Saudi Arabia had a total of 3.8 children ever born; out of which 2.0 were males and 1.8 were females (Table 3). Number of children ever born remained low during early years of marriage (15–19 and 20–24 years) but it reached a
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Table 1 Age
149
Marital distribution of native population – 1992. Ever married
Never married
Total (N)
Ever married
Total (N)
Currently married
Divorced/separated
Widowed
Persons <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
6.6 43.8 79.7 93.2 96.8 98.0 98.5 98.7 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.4 98.5 98.6 57.8
93.4 56.2 20.3 6.8 3.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 42.2
2389445 1042149 870801 647076 548032 366879 315194 291946 210075 220427 119848 117673 56717 107623 7303885
97.3 97.2 97.2 96.8 96.0 93.9 90.8 85.7 83.3 76.3 72.1 61.8 60.2 47.6 90.3
2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 2.5
0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 4.0 6.9 11.5 13.9 20.5 24.5 34.4 36.2 48.8 7.2
157805 456336 693847 603212 530552 359357 310606 288106 207513 217136 118147 115823 55865 106090 4220395
Males <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
0.7 21.3 68.4 90.6 95.6 97.2 97.9 98.2 98.4 98.1 98.2 98.0 98.1 98.2 51.3
99.3 78.7 31.6 9.4 4.4 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 48.7
1193095 525534 415443 326933 264540 180207 153968 143948 117397 127584 71059 65096 33012 58802 3676618
97.2 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.3 97.8 97.2 95.1 93.4 89.3 86.6 76.8 96.8
2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 3.0 1.4
0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 3.2 4.8 8.3 11.0 20.2 1.8
8839 111960 284025 296308 252851 175152 150738 141300 115524 125132 69806 63768 32391 57750 1885544
Females <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
12.5 66.6 90.0 95.9 98.0 98.7 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.1 99.1 99.0 99.0 99.0 64.4
87.5 33.4 10.0 4.1 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 35.6
1196350 516615 455358 320143 283492 186672 161226 147998 92678 92843 48789 52577 23705 48821 3627267
97.3 96.8 96.2 95.1 93.6 89.4 83.7 74.2 65.8 50.6 51.4 28.0 23.7 12.8 85.0
2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 4.2 3.4
0.3 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.5 7.4 12.8 21.5 29.5 43.9 53.0 66.5 70.9 83.0 11.6
148966 344376 409822 306904 277701 184205 159868 146806 91989 92004 48341 52055 23474 48340 2334851
peak after 35 years (Fig. 1). There was no wide difference between number of male and female children born to ever married women in the Kingdom.
It was realized that higher parities had a mix of both male and female children but lower parities had more on specific sex of children. That is, women of parity one and parity 2 had more male children.
4.2.2. Parity Ever married women in Saudi Arabia gave births to more than 9 children (8.2%). A larger share of such high parity women was of age between 45 and 64; showing that women reach high levels of fertility by the end of their reproductive span (Table 4). There were ever married women without any children (18.1%) and only one child (8.2%).
4.2.3. Fertility during 12 months prior to census 2004 Births occurred during the period were 417,953 to a native population of 16,527,340 giving rise to a crude birth rate of 25.3, indicating that 25 births occur to a population of 1000 per year. This gave rise to a general fertility rate of 100.2 as the number of native women in age group 15–49 years was
150 Table 2 Age group
A.A. Salam Marital distribution of native population – 2004. Ever married
Never married
Total (N)
Ever married Currently married
Divorced
Widowed
Total (N)
Persons <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
4.6 28.0 69.1 89.6 95.6 97.6 98.3 98.7 99.0 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.8 98.5 64.1
95.4 72.0 30.9 10.4 4.4 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 35.9
1887689 1546656 1426739 1144278 990713 784871 590851 421581 299273 260984 204458 162175 87227 121863 9929358
97.5 98.1 98.4 98.1 97.5 96.7 95.0 91.7 88.2 83.0 79.8 70.2 72.3 59.5 93.7
2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.8 1.7
0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.3 6.5 9.9 14.8 18.0 27.3 25.5 37.7 4.6
87348 433033 985915 1025662 946610 766353 850941 416227 296269 258792 202669 160699 86186 120061 6366765
Males <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
1.3 13.0 61.9 87.4 95.0 97.5 98.3 98.7 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 98.6 98.2 60.2
98.7 87.0 38.1 12.6 5.0 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 39.8
948707 760146 725413 569152 492543 411890 313340 222166 146079 126594 103245 77277 49598 66073 5012223
96.7 98.5 99.2 99.0 99.0 98.9 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.0 97.4 95.4 94.0 86.2 98.4
2.3 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.9 0.9
1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 3.5 4.9 11.9 0.7
12229 98596 448918 497297 467912 401409 307844 219180 144290 125252 102030 76345 48919 67891 3015112
Females <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
8.0 42.5 76.6 91.9 96.1 97.9 98.4 98.8 99.2 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.0 98.9 68.2
92.0 57.5 23.4 8.1 3.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 31.8
938982 786510 701326 575126 498170 372981 277511 199415 153194 134390 101213 84898 37629 55790 4917135
97.6 98.0 97.7 97.2 96.2 94.2 90.5 83.9 78.3 68.9 61.9 47.4 43.9 28.0 89.6
2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 26.7 28.5 38.9 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.85 2.4
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.8 13.3 18.8 27.7 34.6 48.8 52.5 68.2 8.0
75119 334437 536997 528365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 37267 55170 3351653
4,150,606, indicating that 100 births occur to 1000 native women of the age. General marital fertility rate reflecting births to currently married women aged 15–49 years was worked out to be 160.5 for a total of 2,591,657 currently married women. This rate indicates that a total of 161 births occurred to 1000 currently married women in the reproductive cohort of 15– 49 years. The total fertility rate during the period was 3.4, meaning that a woman, during her reproductive span gives birth to 3.4 children, on an average, under the prevailing conditions of birth and deaths (Table 5).
Gross reproductive rate, an indication of number of female births, a woman gave during her reproductive span was found to be 1.68, which indicates that women gave births to more male children than female children. This was a ratio of female births to total births as multiple of total fertility rate. 4.2.4. Sterility An important concern of demographers and social policy makers in Saudi Arabia is sterility. The situation requires attention
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Table 3
151
Children ever born per ever married women – 2004.
Age group
15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
Children ever born/ever married women
Ever married women (N)
Total
Male
Female
0.4 1.3 2.4 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 3.8
0.2 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.0
0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.9
75119 334437 536997 528365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 92437 3351653
As along the increase in age at marriage between 1992 and 2004; there was a higher decline in the percentage of never married, again an impact of modernization (9). Social situation had improved in the country due to the impact of various reforms and socio-economic transformations that lead enforcement and acceptance of a legal age at marriage. This reduced marriages during adolescence (before 20 years of age); considerably. Polygamous marriages were not uncommon in the Kingdom (9) but the instance of divorce and widowhood was on a decline. 5.2. Fertility Figure 1 Children ever born to native women of broad age group-2004.
as there was a higher proportion of ever married women undergoing this catastrophe (Table 6). Total number of currently married women who had no children was 18.1; out of which a quite large proportion continues in their reproductive span, making possibility of child birth in the future. But there were 12.5% of women aged 45 years and above who have least possibility of child birth in the future. 5. Discussions 5.1. Nuptiality Marital composition of population is undergoing changes in different ways. On one hand, the proportion of ever married persons increased from age group 25–29 years, showing that marriages were frequent from that age. On the other hand, proportion of currently married persons reduces from the age group 40–44 years onwards showing that elapse of marriage took place from 40–44 years onwards. Widowhood seemed to be the major cause of marital elapse whereas divorce or separation appeared less accountable (16). There was a delay in marriage attributed to change in the economic activity, female’s entry into labor force, industrialization and modernization along with educational upliftment (8,9). This increase in age at marriage had implications on fertility and infant and child mortality (17).
Fertility is a concern of demographic researchers on Saudi Arabia. Due to restrictions on import of contraceptives and attribution of birth control as against Islamic values, the country promotes a pronatalist population policy (8). With this social scenario, children ever born to women – an indicator of fertility – in general was 3.8; meaning that there were less than 4 children born to a native woman in Saudi Arabia. Effect of modernization and industrialization reflected on indicators specific to age cohorts (generations). While those aged 75 years and above had 4.7 children ever born; those aged 25–49 years had only 3.8; indicating a reduction of 1 child per woman. There were more male children born to women, indicating a preference for son (8) in the society. Work status influenced children ever born that working women had 3 children, on an average, but nonworking women had 5 children; the difference being higher in rural areas having 1 children more than urban areas (8). The relationship between increasing age at marriage – the recent trend – and reducing number of children influenced the society as along increasing education of husbands and wives. Yet another factor affecting number of children as revealed was child death, which created a wide gap (8). Parity is high among Saudi Arabian women that proportion of women with 9 or more children were nearly one fourth between the two generations (45–49 and 65–69 years); confirming the above variable of children ever born. A large proportion of women were at parity 4. A similar proportion was in zero parity even at advanced ages; bringing forth hypotheses on sterility among Saudi Arabian women. More than one-
152 Table 4
A.A. Salam Percent distribution of ever married woman by parity – 2004.
Parity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9+
(N)
Persons 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
72.6 44.3 17.2 14.4 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.9 12.1 11.9 10.6 14.9 18.1
18.7 20.1 16.5 6.5 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 6.9 8.2
7.2 13.5 16.0 10.7 6.4 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 6.3 8.6
1.5 9.9 18.7 19.4 13.1 9.6 8.2 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.5 7.9 12.2
– 12.1 22.1 23.4 19.8 15.0 14.0 15.1 18.8 19.7 20.5 26.2 13.5 18.2
– – 9.4 13.5 15.0 12.3 10.0 7.9 6.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 10.2 9.6
– – – 9.1 9.4 9.7 8.5 7.8 6.7 6.5 7.2 9.5 9.6 6.3
– – – 3.1 7.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 10.4 11.3 11.4 9.2 5.4
– – – – 12.5 7.8 8.6 8.8 8.8 9.2 8.2 7.2 6.9 5.4
– – – – – 15.9 21.8 24.4 23.1 20.8 19.8 14.4 14.7 8.2
75119 334437 536997 538365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 54354 92437 3351653
Male children 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
82.6 57.6 30.6 23.2 19.3 18.1 17.6 17.3 17.4 16.4 15.7 13.9 19.7 26.1
15.1 19.7 25.1 18.5 13.3 10.2 9.0 8.6 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.9 14.3 15.1
2.1 9.7 29.4 33.1 28.4 23.6 22.0 25.5 26.7 27.3 32.4 21.3 25.1
0.2 13.0 13.1 18.8 17.8 27.4 16.7 14.7 13.3 13.0 14.1 16.8 17.0 16.6
– – 1.5 4.7 15.8 10.8 13.2 13.9 14.0 16.2 15.5 13.9 12.3 8.7
– – 0.2 1.5 3.8 6.2 9.6 10.2 9.5 8.3 8.0 6.5 7.5 4.2
– – – 0.3 1.2 2.6 6.2 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.5 3.9 4.3 2.3
– – – 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.1
– – – – 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5
– – – – – 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3
75119 334437 536997 528365 478698 364944 273094 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 92437 3351653
Female children 15–19 84.5 20–24 58.8 25–29 33.0 30–34 24.1 35–39 19.6 40–44 17.9 45–49 17.3 50–54 17.3 55–59 17.6 60–64 17.1 65–69 17.0 70–74 16.1 75+ 23.6 Total 27.1
13.5 35.7 34.2 27.2 20.9 16.5 14.3 12.5 11.7 11.3 10.8 9.7 14.2 22.3
1.9 4.8 24.7 28.2 25.8 22.5 21.3 21.4 24.4 25.6 26.8 32.3 21.8 22.4
0.2 0.7 6.1 13.8 13.1 13.8 14.6 14.5 14.2 15.2 15.8 17.5 15.9 11.2
– – 1.6 4.9 15.7 10.6 12.9 13.9 13.2 13.3 12.8 11.5 11.0 8.4
– – 0.4 1.7 3.7 5.7 9.0 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.5 6.0 6.9 4.0
– – – 0.3 1.0 12.1 5.3 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.0
– – – 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.7 0.9
– – – – 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.4
– – – – 0.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3
75119 334437 536997 538365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 92437 3351653
tenth of women aged 45 years and above was of zero parity. As they were at advanced ages of reproductive span, they may be considered as sterile. Data on fertility during 12 months prior to 2004 census showed a crude birth rate of 25.3; GFR of 100.2; GMFR of 160.5; TFR of 3.4; GRR of 1.7. This medium level fertility indicates transition in fertility rate (TFR) from a 7.1 (1985) especially due to delay in reproduction and delay in marriages (8). This coupled with low use of contraception created higher fertility at later years of reproductive span though the effect of contraceptive use on fertility was found to be weak; probably due to inefficient contraceptives or birth spacing (8). Factors like age at first marriage, child death, education, living in
monogamous marriages and son preference were found to be stronger determinants of fertility in Saudi Arabia along with other factors like house ownership, contraceptive use and women’s education (9). Influence of man’s education on fertility was debated as husband’s education was positively related (11) or not (10). Similar was the case with economic condition of families; better economic condition lead to higher fertility (12) or lower fertility. Though, monogamous marriages lead to higher fertility (9). Fertility rates of Saudi Arabia were competitive in the Arab Region (5,18). Regional variations in fertility rates were observed that southern and northern regions had higher number of children than central region, which were attributed to spatial
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Table 5 Age specific fertility and total fertility rate and other fertility measures. Age group Number of births Number of women Fertility rate 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 Total TFR CBR GFR GMFR GRR
11569 53320 187958 77439 54544 24425 6675
938982 786510 701326 575126 498170 372981 277511
P ASFR*5
0.012 0.067 0.268 0.135 0.109 0.065 0.024 0.68 3.40 25.3 100.2 160.5 1.7
Table 6 Percent of zero parity to total ever married women by age – 2004. Age group 2004 Percent zero parity Percent zero boys Percent zero girls
15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
Total
Boys
Girls
72.6 44.3 17.2 14.4 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.9 12.1 11.9 10.6 14.9 18.1
82.6 57.6 30.6 23.2 19.3 18.1 17.6 17.3 17.4 16.4 15.7 13.9 19.7 26.1
84.5 58.8 33.0 24.1 19.6 17.9 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.1 17.0 16.1 23.6 27.1
62.2 22.6 16.9
63.5 23.4 17.9
Broad age group 15–24 49.5 25–44 14.1 45+ 12.5
distribution of development efforts (8). Migrants from rural areas settling in urban areas had higher birth rates – ruralization of cities; as modern ideas of birth control, family planning programs and the application of contraceptives were difficult to appreciate in traditional Muslim societies (19). 5.3. Conclusions and recommendations Fertility rates show a stage of transition. Decline in birth rate reached a moderate level, hereafter it may fall as per the theo-
153
retical contentions of demographic transition. Policies and programs shall encourage this transition. A fall in fertility rates started recently but the increasing gender preferences need caution as such behaviors may root in the population. It is easier to influence at this stage of transition. Incidences of sterility require further assessment for understanding variations across groups, reasons for sterility, treatment seeking behaviors and medical technology available. References (1) Winckler O. The immigration policy of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Middle East Stud 1997;33(30):480–93. (2) Omran AR, Roudi F. The Middle East population puzzle. Popul Bull 1993;48(1):1–40. (3) Al-Mazrou YY, Farid SM, Khan MU. Changing marriage age and consanguineous marriage in Saudi Females. Ann Saud Med 1995;15(5):481–5. (4) Al-Nasser AN, Bamgboye EA. Estimates of fertility levels in a rural community of Saudi Arabia. Int J Fertil 1992;37(1):15–8. (5) Courbage Y. Declining fertility in Arab Peninsula. Population 1995;50(2):415–45. (6) Freedman R. Asia’s recent fertility decline and prospects for future demographic change. Honolulu Hawaii East West Center. Program on Population, Jan. 26, 1995. (7) Jacobson J. Family, gender and population policy: views from the Middle East. New York: Population Council; 1994. (8) Khraif RM. Fertility in Saudi Arabia: levels and determinants. Paper presented at XXIV General Population Conference at Salvador – Brazil. 18–24 August 2001; 2001. (9) Khraif RM. Fertility behaviors of grazing groups in Suman and Northern parts of Saudi Arabia. Paper presented at XXVI IUSSP International Population Conference, Marrakesh-Morocco. 27 Sept–2 Oct. 2009. (10) Al-Obaidi I. Some social and economic determinants of levels of fertility of Saudi families in the city of Riyadh (Arab). Arab J Humanit 1995;50:30–57. (11) Al-Othaibi M. The effects of some socio-economic factors on the number of children in the Saudi family in Riyadh city. J Soc Sci 1994;22(1):89–120. (12) Al-Isawi F. Levels of fertility in Dammam: a study in population geography. In: Fifth Geographic Symposium, King Saud University 26–28 April; 1994. (13) Sufian AJM. The demography of Saudi Arabia. Popul Rev 1993;37(1–2):64–70. (14) Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Population and housing census 1425 H (2004). Riyadh: Ministry of Economics and Planning; 2004. (15) Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Comparison between population and housing census 1394 and 1413 (H). Riyadh: Ministry of Economics and Planning; 1992. (16) Al-Gabbani M. Aging population in Saudi Arabia: Changes and Challenges. Paper presented at International Geographic Conference held in Tunis on 15 Aug 2008. (17) Library of congress. Country profile Saudi Arabia. Federal Research Division; 2006. (18) Salam AA, Alshekteria AA. Population and health in the Eastern Mediterranean: a preliminary examination. Middle East J Age Ageing 2008;5(1):26–39. (19) El-Bushra M, El-Sayeed M. Some demographic indicators for Khartoum Conurbation, Sudan. Middle East Stud 1979;15(3):295–309.
Middle East Fertility Society
Middle East Fertility Society Journal www.mefsjournal.org www.sciencedirect.com
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Asharaf Abdul Salam
*
Center for Population Studies, King Saud University, P.O. No. 2454, Riyadh 11541, Saudi Arabia Received 19 January 2013; accepted 18 April 2013 Available online 26 June 2013
KEYWORDS Marriage; Family planning; Parity; Children ever born; Sterility
Abstract Saudi Arabia constitutes bulk of the Arabian Peninsula. Higher birth and lower death rate with higher levels of expectation of life characterizes Saudi Arabian demography. This attempt at appraising nuptiality and fertility is based on censuses. Marriage patterns are changing with higher age at marriage; increasing ever marriage and reducing adolescent marriage, divorces and polygamy. Fertility, was captured from children ever born, parity, and births during 12 months prior to 2004 census and sterility. The children ever born to Saudi Arabian ever married women were 3.8. Women of higher age had higher number of children ever born. Fertility levels remained higher but with a larger proportion of woman at zero parity even among those above 45 years – indication of sterility. Fertility transition was under way as a result of improved female education, value of children, higher age at marriage and reduced infant and child mortality rate. Ó 2013 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Middle East Fertility Society.
1. Introduction Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula is going through changes on all dimensions of demography since the formation. Pronatalist policies and declaration of birth control in any form and under any circumstance as contrary to the faith of Islam (1) lead to high fertility in this low mortality set up (2); creating wider growth. An overwhelmingly young population having a higher birth rate but a lower death rate, lower infant mortality and higher * Tel.: +966 568862222. E-mail address: [email protected]. Peer review under responsibility of Middle East Fertility Society.
Production and hosting by Elsevier
levels of life expectancy characterizes growing population in the Kingdom. Such a change in demography, in birth and death rates, was started during 1970s. Birth rates declined along social transformations in the Kingdom. Studies revealed higher fertility levels in the Kingdom, which showed a declining trend along with the increase in education and age at marriage (3,4). The current less significant fertility decline (5) can be attributed to the Kingdom’s less favorable position at par with female education and infant mortality rates. High fertility during the 1980s and 1990s was emphasized as well (6,7). Reproductive behavior in the Kingdom was not much researched with national samples even though regional small sample studies were conducted. Fertility in the Kingdom has registered a declining trend; showing signs of fertility transition (8) from a high of about 7 to a low of about 4.5 during the last 15 years, which may be due to (i) delay in marriage (ii) household characteristics – child death and urban residence or (iii) spatial distribution of development. Contraceptive use has
1110-5690 Ó 2013 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Middle East Fertility Society. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mefs.2013.04.006
148 no significant effect on birth control but has an effect on birth spacing. Variables namely son preference, child death, type of family and geographic location are significant determinants of fertility. These findings are again emphasized through a study of a northern desert of the Kingdom that (i) higher average number of children ever born (ii) polygamous marriages and (iii) woman’s characteristics and familial attributes were related to fertility behavior (9). Little has been known about fertility in Saudi Arabia. The available fertility studies were limited in number and geographic scope as most of the studies were conducted in Riyadh and were based on small samples raising contradictory results (8); for e.g., fertility’s positive relation with husband’s education (10) as against its negative relation (11). Fertility has positive relation with household economy (12). TFR was found to be 4.53 in 1999, which was lower than expected. Fertility had taken a declining trend recently with a clear indication of fertility transition. TFR had fallen from 7.06 (1985) to 6.46 (1987) to 4.5 (1999), over the period. In the light of social changes that the society was experiencing as a result of remarkable expansion in females’ education and recent encouragement to wider participation of women in labor force and involvement in development and societal matters in general; a further rise in the age at marriage could be accompanied by a decline in desired family size. Age at first marriage, child death, education, living in monogamous marriages and son preference were important determinants of fertility behavior (9). Declining birth rates along social transformation was evident. For example, a study at a region of Saudi Arabia (4) revealed higher fertility levels but indicated decreasing parity along increasing education and increasing age at marriage. Saudi National Child Health Survey data revealed less number of marriages before 18 years; a higher proportion of marriage of males above 30 years and females between 20 and 24 years; increasing widowhood rate along with increasing age and large proportion of marriages between first cousins especially among illiterate and rural females and consanguinity and divorces and widowhood persists in the Kingdom (3). Improved female education or reduced family income due to lowered prices of petroleum exports had not imparted upon fertility levels. High fertility in Saudi Arabia was emphasized as a demographic lag – difference from theoretical-actual-demographic dynamics – featuring population size and growth, fertility, mortality, status of women and contraceptive use (6,7); based on per capita income and rapid economic growth (13). 2. Objectives An appraisal of nuptiality and fertility from National Census held during 1992 and 2004. 3. Methodology The current study is based on census data as the source of information. There were five censuses conducted in the Kingdom during 1962/63, 1974, 1992, 2004 and 2010. Census operation has not been stabilized since data on marriages and fertility were given only in 2004 (14). The marriage pattern data were available on 1992 census as well (15). Census operations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are under the Central Department of Statistics and Information
A.A. Salam (Central Agency for Statistics) and multi suit of statistical centers and units formed within the administrative structures of government agencies and some private sector institutions under a technical supervision done by the Central Department of Statistics and Information (CDSI). 4. Results 4.1. Nuptiality Nuptial knot leads to demographic change in any population as it sets the onset of reproduction. A basic indicator of nuptiality namely marital status explains the reproductive trend (Table 1). Indirectly, it indicates reproductive wastages, future of infant and child mortality and health status of future generations. Age at marriage determines age at conception, which again reflects the years of active reproductive life. Marriages in Saudi Arabia under the Shariat Mehr system follow consanguinity to a large extent. Teenage marriages were common in the Kingdom but were reduced with time and development in socio-economic sectors. A total of 6.6% of persons below 20 years were ever married as on 1992 (0.7% among males and 12.5% among females). This shows a higher gap in age at marriage between male and female. Ever married persons were most common above the age of 30 years, which shows that age at marriage was slightly below 30 (25–29 years). Widowhood rates were higher among those aged 60 years and above. Gap between the proportions of males and females in terms of marriages below 20 years of age was wide. Yet another observation made was difference in the proportion of widowed persons among males (1.8%) and females (11.6%), possibly, due to age difference between husband and wife. During 2004, only 64.1% were ever married out of the population aged 18 years or above; the proportion was least in case of those below 20 years. Out of the ever married persons, 93.7% remained as currently married; the proportion was least in case of those aged 65 years and above, where widowhood was a noticeable characteristic (Table 2). Age at marriage remained higher among males that the ever married persons below 20 years was 6.7% points lower than that of females. This shows the gap between age at marriage of males and females, which was reflected in the widowhood rates as well. As males marry females of lower age, the years of widowed life remained higher in case of females. 4.2. Fertility A demographic process having relevance to all spheres of human life is fertility, which refers to human reproduction that adds people. Fertility indicators available on 2004 census report include children ever born per ever married women, parity of ever married women and number of births to ever married women by age during the last 12 months preceding the census. Such details on fertility were provided only on 2004 census; specific to native population. 4.2.1. Children ever born (CEB) Ever married native women (aged 15 years and above) in Saudi Arabia had a total of 3.8 children ever born; out of which 2.0 were males and 1.8 were females (Table 3). Number of children ever born remained low during early years of marriage (15–19 and 20–24 years) but it reached a
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Table 1 Age
149
Marital distribution of native population – 1992. Ever married
Never married
Total (N)
Ever married
Total (N)
Currently married
Divorced/separated
Widowed
Persons <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
6.6 43.8 79.7 93.2 96.8 98.0 98.5 98.7 98.8 98.5 98.6 98.4 98.5 98.6 57.8
93.4 56.2 20.3 6.8 3.2 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.4 42.2
2389445 1042149 870801 647076 548032 366879 315194 291946 210075 220427 119848 117673 56717 107623 7303885
97.3 97.2 97.2 96.8 96.0 93.9 90.8 85.7 83.3 76.3 72.1 61.8 60.2 47.6 90.3
2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.6 2.5
0.3 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.9 4.0 6.9 11.5 13.9 20.5 24.5 34.4 36.2 48.8 7.2
157805 456336 693847 603212 530552 359357 310606 288106 207513 217136 118147 115823 55865 106090 4220395
Males <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
0.7 21.3 68.4 90.6 95.6 97.2 97.9 98.2 98.4 98.1 98.2 98.0 98.1 98.2 51.3
99.3 78.7 31.6 9.4 4.4 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 48.7
1193095 525534 415443 326933 264540 180207 153968 143948 117397 127584 71059 65096 33012 58802 3676618
97.2 98.6 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.6 98.3 97.8 97.2 95.1 93.4 89.3 86.6 76.8 96.8
2.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 3.0 1.4
0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 3.2 4.8 8.3 11.0 20.2 1.8
8839 111960 284025 296308 252851 175152 150738 141300 115524 125132 69806 63768 32391 57750 1885544
Females <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
12.5 66.6 90.0 95.9 98.0 98.7 99.2 99.2 99.3 99.1 99.1 99.0 99.0 99.0 64.4
87.5 33.4 10.0 4.1 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 35.6
1196350 516615 455358 320143 283492 186672 161226 147998 92678 92843 48789 52577 23705 48821 3627267
97.3 96.8 96.2 95.1 93.6 89.4 83.7 74.2 65.8 50.6 51.4 28.0 23.7 12.8 85.0
2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.3 4.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 4.2 3.4
0.3 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.5 7.4 12.8 21.5 29.5 43.9 53.0 66.5 70.9 83.0 11.6
148966 344376 409822 306904 277701 184205 159868 146806 91989 92004 48341 52055 23474 48340 2334851
peak after 35 years (Fig. 1). There was no wide difference between number of male and female children born to ever married women in the Kingdom.
It was realized that higher parities had a mix of both male and female children but lower parities had more on specific sex of children. That is, women of parity one and parity 2 had more male children.
4.2.2. Parity Ever married women in Saudi Arabia gave births to more than 9 children (8.2%). A larger share of such high parity women was of age between 45 and 64; showing that women reach high levels of fertility by the end of their reproductive span (Table 4). There were ever married women without any children (18.1%) and only one child (8.2%).
4.2.3. Fertility during 12 months prior to census 2004 Births occurred during the period were 417,953 to a native population of 16,527,340 giving rise to a crude birth rate of 25.3, indicating that 25 births occur to a population of 1000 per year. This gave rise to a general fertility rate of 100.2 as the number of native women in age group 15–49 years was
150 Table 2 Age group
A.A. Salam Marital distribution of native population – 2004. Ever married
Never married
Total (N)
Ever married Currently married
Divorced
Widowed
Total (N)
Persons <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
4.6 28.0 69.1 89.6 95.6 97.6 98.3 98.7 99.0 99.2 99.1 99.1 98.8 98.5 64.1
95.4 72.0 30.9 10.4 4.4 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 35.9
1887689 1546656 1426739 1144278 990713 784871 590851 421581 299273 260984 204458 162175 87227 121863 9929358
97.5 98.1 98.4 98.1 97.5 96.7 95.0 91.7 88.2 83.0 79.8 70.2 72.3 59.5 93.7
2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.2 2.8 1.7
0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.3 6.5 9.9 14.8 18.0 27.3 25.5 37.7 4.6
87348 433033 985915 1025662 946610 766353 850941 416227 296269 258792 202669 160699 86186 120061 6366765
Males <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
1.3 13.0 61.9 87.4 95.0 97.5 98.3 98.7 98.8 98.9 98.8 98.8 98.6 98.2 60.2
98.7 87.0 38.1 12.6 5.0 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.8 39.8
948707 760146 725413 569152 492543 411890 313340 222166 146079 126594 103245 77277 49598 66073 5012223
96.7 98.5 99.2 99.0 99.0 98.9 98.9 98.8 98.6 98.0 97.4 95.4 94.0 86.2 98.4
2.3 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.9 0.9
1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.6 3.5 4.9 11.9 0.7
12229 98596 448918 497297 467912 401409 307844 219180 144290 125252 102030 76345 48919 67891 3015112
Females <20 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+ Total
8.0 42.5 76.6 91.9 96.1 97.9 98.4 98.8 99.2 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.0 98.9 68.2
92.0 57.5 23.4 8.1 3.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 31.8
938982 786510 701326 575126 498170 372981 277511 199415 153194 134390 101213 84898 37629 55790 4917135
97.6 98.0 97.7 97.2 96.2 94.2 90.5 83.9 78.3 68.9 61.9 47.4 43.9 28.0 89.6
2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 26.7 28.5 38.9 3.4 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.85 2.4
0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 3.4 6.8 13.3 18.8 27.7 34.6 48.8 52.5 68.2 8.0
75119 334437 536997 528365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 37267 55170 3351653
4,150,606, indicating that 100 births occur to 1000 native women of the age. General marital fertility rate reflecting births to currently married women aged 15–49 years was worked out to be 160.5 for a total of 2,591,657 currently married women. This rate indicates that a total of 161 births occurred to 1000 currently married women in the reproductive cohort of 15– 49 years. The total fertility rate during the period was 3.4, meaning that a woman, during her reproductive span gives birth to 3.4 children, on an average, under the prevailing conditions of birth and deaths (Table 5).
Gross reproductive rate, an indication of number of female births, a woman gave during her reproductive span was found to be 1.68, which indicates that women gave births to more male children than female children. This was a ratio of female births to total births as multiple of total fertility rate. 4.2.4. Sterility An important concern of demographers and social policy makers in Saudi Arabia is sterility. The situation requires attention
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Table 3
151
Children ever born per ever married women – 2004.
Age group
15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
Children ever born/ever married women
Ever married women (N)
Total
Male
Female
0.4 1.3 2.4 3.2 4.2 4.9 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.1 4.8 3.8
0.2 0.8 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.0
0.2 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 1.9
75119 334437 536997 528365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 92437 3351653
As along the increase in age at marriage between 1992 and 2004; there was a higher decline in the percentage of never married, again an impact of modernization (9). Social situation had improved in the country due to the impact of various reforms and socio-economic transformations that lead enforcement and acceptance of a legal age at marriage. This reduced marriages during adolescence (before 20 years of age); considerably. Polygamous marriages were not uncommon in the Kingdom (9) but the instance of divorce and widowhood was on a decline. 5.2. Fertility Figure 1 Children ever born to native women of broad age group-2004.
as there was a higher proportion of ever married women undergoing this catastrophe (Table 6). Total number of currently married women who had no children was 18.1; out of which a quite large proportion continues in their reproductive span, making possibility of child birth in the future. But there were 12.5% of women aged 45 years and above who have least possibility of child birth in the future. 5. Discussions 5.1. Nuptiality Marital composition of population is undergoing changes in different ways. On one hand, the proportion of ever married persons increased from age group 25–29 years, showing that marriages were frequent from that age. On the other hand, proportion of currently married persons reduces from the age group 40–44 years onwards showing that elapse of marriage took place from 40–44 years onwards. Widowhood seemed to be the major cause of marital elapse whereas divorce or separation appeared less accountable (16). There was a delay in marriage attributed to change in the economic activity, female’s entry into labor force, industrialization and modernization along with educational upliftment (8,9). This increase in age at marriage had implications on fertility and infant and child mortality (17).
Fertility is a concern of demographic researchers on Saudi Arabia. Due to restrictions on import of contraceptives and attribution of birth control as against Islamic values, the country promotes a pronatalist population policy (8). With this social scenario, children ever born to women – an indicator of fertility – in general was 3.8; meaning that there were less than 4 children born to a native woman in Saudi Arabia. Effect of modernization and industrialization reflected on indicators specific to age cohorts (generations). While those aged 75 years and above had 4.7 children ever born; those aged 25–49 years had only 3.8; indicating a reduction of 1 child per woman. There were more male children born to women, indicating a preference for son (8) in the society. Work status influenced children ever born that working women had 3 children, on an average, but nonworking women had 5 children; the difference being higher in rural areas having 1 children more than urban areas (8). The relationship between increasing age at marriage – the recent trend – and reducing number of children influenced the society as along increasing education of husbands and wives. Yet another factor affecting number of children as revealed was child death, which created a wide gap (8). Parity is high among Saudi Arabian women that proportion of women with 9 or more children were nearly one fourth between the two generations (45–49 and 65–69 years); confirming the above variable of children ever born. A large proportion of women were at parity 4. A similar proportion was in zero parity even at advanced ages; bringing forth hypotheses on sterility among Saudi Arabian women. More than one-
152 Table 4
A.A. Salam Percent distribution of ever married woman by parity – 2004.
Parity
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9+
(N)
Persons 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
72.6 44.3 17.2 14.4 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.9 12.1 11.9 10.6 14.9 18.1
18.7 20.1 16.5 6.5 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.1 6.9 8.2
7.2 13.5 16.0 10.7 6.4 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.1 4.1 6.3 8.6
1.5 9.9 18.7 19.4 13.1 9.6 8.2 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.2 5.5 7.9 12.2
– 12.1 22.1 23.4 19.8 15.0 14.0 15.1 18.8 19.7 20.5 26.2 13.5 18.2
– – 9.4 13.5 15.0 12.3 10.0 7.9 6.7 6.4 6.8 7.0 10.2 9.6
– – – 9.1 9.4 9.7 8.5 7.8 6.7 6.5 7.2 9.5 9.6 6.3
– – – 3.1 7.0 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 10.4 11.3 11.4 9.2 5.4
– – – – 12.5 7.8 8.6 8.8 8.8 9.2 8.2 7.2 6.9 5.4
– – – – – 15.9 21.8 24.4 23.1 20.8 19.8 14.4 14.7 8.2
75119 334437 536997 538365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 54354 92437 3351653
Male children 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
82.6 57.6 30.6 23.2 19.3 18.1 17.6 17.3 17.4 16.4 15.7 13.9 19.7 26.1
15.1 19.7 25.1 18.5 13.3 10.2 9.0 8.6 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.9 14.3 15.1
2.1 9.7 29.4 33.1 28.4 23.6 22.0 25.5 26.7 27.3 32.4 21.3 25.1
0.2 13.0 13.1 18.8 17.8 27.4 16.7 14.7 13.3 13.0 14.1 16.8 17.0 16.6
– – 1.5 4.7 15.8 10.8 13.2 13.9 14.0 16.2 15.5 13.9 12.3 8.7
– – 0.2 1.5 3.8 6.2 9.6 10.2 9.5 8.3 8.0 6.5 7.5 4.2
– – – 0.3 1.2 2.6 6.2 6.7 6.1 5.7 5.5 3.9 4.3 2.3
– – – 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.1
– – – – 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.5
– – – – – 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3
75119 334437 536997 528365 478698 364944 273094 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 92437 3351653
Female children 15–19 84.5 20–24 58.8 25–29 33.0 30–34 24.1 35–39 19.6 40–44 17.9 45–49 17.3 50–54 17.3 55–59 17.6 60–64 17.1 65–69 17.0 70–74 16.1 75+ 23.6 Total 27.1
13.5 35.7 34.2 27.2 20.9 16.5 14.3 12.5 11.7 11.3 10.8 9.7 14.2 22.3
1.9 4.8 24.7 28.2 25.8 22.5 21.3 21.4 24.4 25.6 26.8 32.3 21.8 22.4
0.2 0.7 6.1 13.8 13.1 13.8 14.6 14.5 14.2 15.2 15.8 17.5 15.9 11.2
– – 1.6 4.9 15.7 10.6 12.9 13.9 13.2 13.3 12.8 11.5 11.0 8.4
– – 0.4 1.7 3.7 5.7 9.0 9.0 8.2 7.6 7.5 6.0 6.9 4.0
– – – 0.3 1.0 12.1 5.3 5.6 5.0 4.8 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.0
– – – 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.7 0.9
– – – – 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.4
– – – – 0.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3
75119 334437 536997 538365 478698 364944 273097 197047 151979 133540 100639 84354 92437 3351653
tenth of women aged 45 years and above was of zero parity. As they were at advanced ages of reproductive span, they may be considered as sterile. Data on fertility during 12 months prior to 2004 census showed a crude birth rate of 25.3; GFR of 100.2; GMFR of 160.5; TFR of 3.4; GRR of 1.7. This medium level fertility indicates transition in fertility rate (TFR) from a 7.1 (1985) especially due to delay in reproduction and delay in marriages (8). This coupled with low use of contraception created higher fertility at later years of reproductive span though the effect of contraceptive use on fertility was found to be weak; probably due to inefficient contraceptives or birth spacing (8). Factors like age at first marriage, child death, education, living in
monogamous marriages and son preference were found to be stronger determinants of fertility in Saudi Arabia along with other factors like house ownership, contraceptive use and women’s education (9). Influence of man’s education on fertility was debated as husband’s education was positively related (11) or not (10). Similar was the case with economic condition of families; better economic condition lead to higher fertility (12) or lower fertility. Though, monogamous marriages lead to higher fertility (9). Fertility rates of Saudi Arabia were competitive in the Arab Region (5,18). Regional variations in fertility rates were observed that southern and northern regions had higher number of children than central region, which were attributed to spatial
Nuptiality and fertility in Saudi Arabia: An appraisal of census data Table 5 Age specific fertility and total fertility rate and other fertility measures. Age group Number of births Number of women Fertility rate 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 Total TFR CBR GFR GMFR GRR
11569 53320 187958 77439 54544 24425 6675
938982 786510 701326 575126 498170 372981 277511
P ASFR*5
0.012 0.067 0.268 0.135 0.109 0.065 0.024 0.68 3.40 25.3 100.2 160.5 1.7
Table 6 Percent of zero parity to total ever married women by age – 2004. Age group 2004 Percent zero parity Percent zero boys Percent zero girls
15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75+ Total
Total
Boys
Girls
72.6 44.3 17.2 14.4 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.9 12.1 11.9 10.6 14.9 18.1
82.6 57.6 30.6 23.2 19.3 18.1 17.6 17.3 17.4 16.4 15.7 13.9 19.7 26.1
84.5 58.8 33.0 24.1 19.6 17.9 17.3 17.3 17.6 17.1 17.0 16.1 23.6 27.1
62.2 22.6 16.9
63.5 23.4 17.9
Broad age group 15–24 49.5 25–44 14.1 45+ 12.5
distribution of development efforts (8). Migrants from rural areas settling in urban areas had higher birth rates – ruralization of cities; as modern ideas of birth control, family planning programs and the application of contraceptives were difficult to appreciate in traditional Muslim societies (19). 5.3. Conclusions and recommendations Fertility rates show a stage of transition. Decline in birth rate reached a moderate level, hereafter it may fall as per the theo-
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retical contentions of demographic transition. Policies and programs shall encourage this transition. A fall in fertility rates started recently but the increasing gender preferences need caution as such behaviors may root in the population. It is easier to influence at this stage of transition. Incidences of sterility require further assessment for understanding variations across groups, reasons for sterility, treatment seeking behaviors and medical technology available. References (1) Winckler O. The immigration policy of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Middle East Stud 1997;33(30):480–93. (2) Omran AR, Roudi F. The Middle East population puzzle. Popul Bull 1993;48(1):1–40. (3) Al-Mazrou YY, Farid SM, Khan MU. Changing marriage age and consanguineous marriage in Saudi Females. Ann Saud Med 1995;15(5):481–5. (4) Al-Nasser AN, Bamgboye EA. Estimates of fertility levels in a rural community of Saudi Arabia. Int J Fertil 1992;37(1):15–8. (5) Courbage Y. Declining fertility in Arab Peninsula. Population 1995;50(2):415–45. (6) Freedman R. Asia’s recent fertility decline and prospects for future demographic change. Honolulu Hawaii East West Center. Program on Population, Jan. 26, 1995. (7) Jacobson J. Family, gender and population policy: views from the Middle East. New York: Population Council; 1994. (8) Khraif RM. Fertility in Saudi Arabia: levels and determinants. Paper presented at XXIV General Population Conference at Salvador – Brazil. 18–24 August 2001; 2001. (9) Khraif RM. Fertility behaviors of grazing groups in Suman and Northern parts of Saudi Arabia. Paper presented at XXVI IUSSP International Population Conference, Marrakesh-Morocco. 27 Sept–2 Oct. 2009. (10) Al-Obaidi I. Some social and economic determinants of levels of fertility of Saudi families in the city of Riyadh (Arab). Arab J Humanit 1995;50:30–57. (11) Al-Othaibi M. The effects of some socio-economic factors on the number of children in the Saudi family in Riyadh city. J Soc Sci 1994;22(1):89–120. (12) Al-Isawi F. Levels of fertility in Dammam: a study in population geography. In: Fifth Geographic Symposium, King Saud University 26–28 April; 1994. (13) Sufian AJM. The demography of Saudi Arabia. Popul Rev 1993;37(1–2):64–70. (14) Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Population and housing census 1425 H (2004). Riyadh: Ministry of Economics and Planning; 2004. (15) Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Comparison between population and housing census 1394 and 1413 (H). Riyadh: Ministry of Economics and Planning; 1992. (16) Al-Gabbani M. Aging population in Saudi Arabia: Changes and Challenges. Paper presented at International Geographic Conference held in Tunis on 15 Aug 2008. (17) Library of congress. Country profile Saudi Arabia. Federal Research Division; 2006. (18) Salam AA, Alshekteria AA. Population and health in the Eastern Mediterranean: a preliminary examination. Middle East J Age Ageing 2008;5(1):26–39. (19) El-Bushra M, El-Sayeed M. Some demographic indicators for Khartoum Conurbation, Sudan. Middle East Stud 1979;15(3):295–309.