378 power forecasts and requirements. The official estimate is that between 1980 and 1985 the number of United Kingdom graduates will not be sufficient to meet all the requirements of the N.H.S., but that, overall, the figures for total supply (U.K. plus overseas graduates) should be adequate. The estimate is that there could be about 82 000 doctors in active practice in 1980 and 87 000 in 1985, compared with 77 000 at present. This number would provide for overall growth in the N.H.S. and allow for the gradual reduction in dependence on overseas doctors. But it presupposes that the numbers of
doctors entering Britain balance the numbers The B.M.A., in its evidence to the Royal Commission, said that the dependence of the N.H.S. on the services of overseas doctors had become excessive. Sir Henry Yellowlees, the Department’s chief medical officer, in his annual report for 1975, said "it would be wrong to continue to rely" on this source. There are now some 15 000 overseas doctors in the N.H.S., 4000 of them G.P.S (18% of all G.P.s) and 11 000 in the hospital service (35% of the total). But because of the failurerate in language tests and the fact that more overseas countries are retaining their own medical graduates, the proportion of overseas doctors in Britain is expected to fall.
Although the D.H.S.S. has turned down an inquiry on the grounds that little would be gained from it, Mr Roland Moyle, Minister of State for Health, announced at the end of last year that the wider issues arising from the incident were being examined. But this has not satisfied many M.p.s, particularly on the Labour side, who dislike the idea of the medical profession acting as judge and jury on a matter which is widely affecting the public. To
some
of them this is another thalidomide.
overseas
leaving.
prediction business, however, has become much cloudy for various reasons, among them the increasing number of women graduates expected from medical schools and the pattern of emigration to the The
more
Common Market countries. The E.E.C. has a doctor surplus: medical schools in Europe are so productive that many doctors may soon have difficulty in finding jobs and it is estimated that there will be a 40 000 surplus of E.E.C. doctors by 1981. It is with the hazards of the numbers game in mind that the Liberals also propose in their evidence that a standing committee should be established to review manpower requirements. Past predictions, they say, have been wrong too often.
Side-effects of Practolol When Mr Syd Tierney, Labour M.p. for Birmingham, Yardley, tabled a Commons motion in October calling on the Government to institute an urgent inquiry into the number of people suffering from the side-effects of practolol (’Eraldin’) it attracted the support of 111 Labour members. But the D.H.S.S. firmly resisted the demand. Now Mr Tierney has tabled another motion calling for an independent inquiry into why the earlywarning system by yellow card did not identify properly the side-effects of practolol, and this motion is supported by Liberal and Conservative M.p.s. The numbers signing the motion will be watched closely by Ministers. But the intention is still to resist any inquiry. The drug was withdrawn from general use in mid-1975and since October that year the manufacturers have restricted its supply to hospitals and recommended that it be used only on a short-term basis in certain lifesaving conditions. But in the five years during which the drug was in use an estimated 250 000 people received it and Mr Tierney believes there could be thousands of people walking about with side-effects, the source of which they do not know.
Obituary GIULIO ALFREDO MACCACARO M.D. Pavia
Maccacaro, professor of biometry and mediat the University of Milan, died on Jan. 15, He was born in Codogno, Milan, in 1924, and after graduating M.D. at Pavia in 1948 he spent two years in Cambridge working under Prof. R. A. Fisher. Biostatistics was at first a tool for his work on bacterial genetics, but it soon became his main scientific interest. Thus, after being professor of microbiology at Modena and Sassari, G. A. M. obtained from Milan University the first chair of statistics in any Italian medical school. This occurred in 1964, and the founding in 1965 of the Centro G. Zambon helped Maccacaro’s institute to undertake research work, special teaching courses, and wide dissemination of sound methodology through the periodical Applicazioni Dr G. A.
cal statistics
Biomediche del Calcolo Elettronico. He also served as secretary, and later president, of the Italian branch of the Biometric
Society. G. A. M. was the opposite of the politically neutral scientist. He approached the medical needs of the people in a compassionate way and he fought ever harder in defence of the underprivileged. His objective was to raise the consciousness of the people themselves, and his tools were a tremendous capacity for communication and for fact-finding. Before the turmoils of 1968 Maccacaro tried to be a reformer inside the system. Later he took up a position as a dissenter, but he was a special blend of Marxist and humanrights militant, and he never enrolled in any political party, His commitment and intellectual energy meant that he was able to combine his academic work with many public undertakings. He directed the book series Medicina e Potere, and under his influence the monthly Sapere drew public attention to important social and health issues. Recently he spent some time visiting Ivan Illich, and he was elected secretary-general of the newly formed movement Medicina Democratica. He never wrote a book himself but he leaves many essays, published and unpublished. His prefaces to the Italian editions of M. H. Pappworth’s Human Guineapigs and J.-C. Polack’s La m6decine du capital testify to his truly humanitarian thinking, while his proposed structure for a new medical faculty (Tempo Medico, November, 1971) is thoughtfully constructive. Lately he was working hard at planning a national survey on mental illness. He is survived
by his wife and son. V.F.
Dr CUTHBERT E. DUKES, consulting pathologist to St. Mark’s Hospital for Diseases of the Rectum and Colon, London, and to the Institute of Urology, died on Feb. 3 at the age of 86.