Offshore oil impacts on the bering sea fishing industry

ENVIRON IMPACT ASSESS REV 1987;7:109-124

109

OFFSHORE OIL IMPACTS ON THE BERING SEA FISHING INDUSTRY

BRAD

INGRAM

AND

STEVE

GRABACKI

Techniques used in an impact assessment of the effects of offshore petroleum development on the commercial fshing industry in the Bering Sea are presented. Several predictive analytic models were developed to help bound and quantitatively project impacts relating to possible damage and economic loss to the fishing industry. These included models for projecting trawl and crab pot gear loss, increase in vessel collisions and loss in catch due to foreclosure of fishing grounds. Trawl gear loss was predicted by extrapolating the gear loss experience in the North Sea using a model that adjusted the experienced loss rate for differences in the amount of offshore petroleum development and the amount of trawl fishing activity. This model predicted that there would be approximately one instance of gear loss annually for each three trawl vessels fishing the Bering Sea. The theoretical crab pot loss was estimated using a statistical model that estimated the number of pots that would be hit by supply vessel traffic. The results indicated that the theoretical number of pots hit would range from approximately 1.6 to 5 percent of the pots in place. Statistical collision prediction models were used to estimate that the increase in supply vessel traffic would theoretically result in a probability of 0.006 of an additional collision in the year of peak supply vessel activity. A model was developed to estimate loss of catch due to foreclosure of fishing grounds by offshore pipelines, platforms, and other structures. The model indicated thatthe loss of catch would be less than 5 percent of that calculated by using a method that determined economic loss based on the proportion of the fishing area foreclosed by space usurpation. Assessments regarding effects on the fishing industry labor force and supporting facilities are presented based on a review of analogous situations in other parts of the world. These indicated that adverse impacts on the labor foree for fishermen on vessels would be insignificant, but that there would be a certain amount of conflict for fish processing labor and community and support services. The pro-

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