On monarch, malthus and materials

Materials Science and Engineering, 21 (1975) 1--14 © Elsevier Sequoia S.A., Lausanne -- Printed in The Netherlands

On Monarchs, Malthus and Materials

J.J. HARWOOD

Materials Sciences Laboratory, Scientific Research Staff, Ford Motor Company, Dearborn, Michigan 48121 (U.S.A.) (Received April 21, 1975)

MALTHUS AND NEO-MALTHUSIANS

It is now some 175 years since Malthus published his Essay on the Principle of Population in which he proposed the thesis that population naturally tends to increase faster than the means of subsistence (i.e. the supply of food). But, population would be prevented from increasing b e y o n d the subsistence limits by the checks of war, famine, misery and vice, and the masses would always be d o o m e d to minimal subsistence. The Malthusian theory of population basically was a pessimistic Outlook with no confidence that the h u m a n race would be willing to regulate its numbers by prudence and restraint nor that economic growth and human progress could change radically this predeterministic end. Such pessimism has surfaced innumerable times since, as a universal threat, with Malthusian specters of over-population and starvation. But while Malthus apparently has been wrong for these 175 years, as Garret Hardin wrote in 1972: "Malthus has been buried again. This is the 174th year in which that redoubtable economist has been interred. We may take it as certain t h a t anyone who has to be buried 174 times cannot be wholly dead". It is not the purpose of this paper to deal with population explosion, zero population growth or related population issues. But the Malthusian threat of a catastrophic collision between increasing population and decreasing resources has emerged again as one of the vital issues of our times. The original simple view of the race between food supply and population growth has spilled over into a complex tangle of quality of life issues involving, as well, environmental pollution, economic growth and depletion of natural resources. In fact a whole

set of moral issues concerning man and his environment and developing countries v e r s u s the industrial world have come into play. The science and technology ethic (and the work ethic) of the industrialized world as a basis for continued growth into the future is under serious and sharp questioning. A new school of Neo-Malthusians again has arisen, led by the Club of Rome and the Forrester - Meadows Limits to Growth studies [1]. The key theme of these contemporary social prophets is that growth must stop. Continued population and economic growth have led to a scarcity of resources and pollution of our water and air environments such that world collapse will occur at some (not too distant) future time. Economic growth and material progress are now the culprits of the modern predicament of man with a rejection of science and technology as having any real potential for providing solutions to the world's dilemmas. Indeed, as Garret Hardin proposed in his discussion of The Tragedy of the Commons [2], looking for solutions in the areas of science and technology will only worsen the situation. The Neo-Malthusians are concerned, or so they seem to claim, with classes of h u m a n problems which can be called " n o technical solution problems". For them a technical solution is defined as one requiring a change only in the techniques of natural sciences, demanding little or nothing in the way of change in human values or ideas of morality. To them technological remedies are only stop-gaps; the important issues of energy, resources and pollution are not really technical and economic but rather social and ethical. They demand a marked revision of the values which have been the basis of western civilization, particularly

since the period of the Enlightenment. Thus, the optimism of our science and technology motivated culture for the past century appears to have given way (at least in some intellectual circles) to a new pessimism [3] embodying a d o o m s d a y set of prophesies. The future apocalypse and catastrophes served up by these Neo-Malthusians include: Exponential population and production growth are exhausting the earth's food, energy and mineral resources. Key resources will be used up within the next century. Improved technology and capital investment may extend growth for several more decades, b u t pollution and other ecosystem intrusions will worsen the eventual cataclysm. The developed nations must halt growth and share their current wealth with the poorer, underdeveloped world to prevent class war over diminishing resources. Industrialization may be a more disturbing force in global e c o l o g y than the population explosion, and industrialization of the 3rd world obviously would be a disastrous undertaking. World wide decision-making and rigorous governmental controls are necessary. In fact, they tend to imply that authoritarian systems may be necessary political concomitants. Unlike the religious prophets of the Bible, who while predicting dire events held out at the same time the promise of the good life for individual repentance and moral enrichment, the new class of social prophets seems to offer only unrequited pessimism. Unless society as a whole takes a pledge of voluntary poverty (or abstains from enriching itself still further), the future only points to ecological doomsday. There seems to be no sense of hope in the NeoMalthusians extremist view of the world winding down. There is an inevitable resignation to survival on some sort of world-wide minimal subsistence level. There is no faith in the future, no optimistic perspective of man's tomorrow, other than through an unrealistic world-wide human perfectability. But as has been said, if man didn't pay attention to Jeremiah, w h y should he listen to Meadows? A dangerous feature of Neo-Malthusianism, if it is unquestioningly accepted, can lie in its almost inevitable thrust for people and nations to behave with a sense of desperate egotism and personal protectionism. The oil and energy crisis and the recent international conferences on pollution, environment, population and the

laws of the sea indicate the polarization which has already set in. There are intriguing moral issues and implications contained in the new world outlook of our Neo-Malthusians related to western views of science, religion, democracy and freedom, and the relation of man to nature, but these are better left for another time [4]. But to take issue with the Neo-Malthusians is not to deny the validity and warning of the basic message. While a no-growth, scrap-thesystem school may be considered irresponsible, equally so is the Cornucopian school of unrestricted economic growth with absolute precedence over social and environmental costs of growth. The earth's resources are indeed finite and someday Malthus will be right -- but when? It makes an enormous difference in governmental policies, world action and human attitudes as to whether it's 5 0 , 1 0 0 or several hundred years. The message is not new. Fairfield Osborne in his Our Plundered Planet in 1948 called for a complete revolution in man's point of view toward the earth's resources [5]. Samuel Ordway presented the same picture in his b o o k Resources and the American Dream [6], in 1953. Interestingly his b o o k was subtitled A Theory of the Limit of Growth predating the more modern, computer-modeled Meadows' work. The assumption that supplies are unlimited is no longer tenable, and policies and practices must be correspondingly reordered to incorporate such recognitions in our national e c o n o m y and growth patterns. Unfortunately, the Neo-Malthusians do a disservice in the exaggeration of the message and in the impracticality of the social revolution required to implement their recommendations. As The Limits to Growth puts it "A drawback of this approach is of course that -given the heterogeneity of world society, national political structure and levels of development -- the conclusions of the study, although valid for our planet as a whole, do not apply in detail to any particular c o u n t r y or region". And, as Robert Heilbroner wrote: "The problem is the challenge to survival still lies sufficiently far in the future that no substantial voluntary diminution of growth, much less a planned reorganization of society, is today even remotely imaginable". Perhaps on this note it's time to leave the cheerless macrocosm of the Neo-Malthusians and turn to real-time systems and situations in

which science and technology can still serve as instruments for progress. What I would like to do then, as the main purposes of this paper, is to look at the issue of minerals and materials resources as a specific sub-system of the general concern about the availability of our economic resources; and finally to consider the problems and challenges which materials pose in the microcosm of the automotive industry and automotive vehicles. Because, we can discover as we examine more-real-world problem areas, as so often is the case, that new technologies do offer new possibilities for adaptive or corrective actions. And when common-sense, national, social and political actions are properly coupled to advanced technology, there does exist a high probability of having a more optimal mix of solutions for solving man-made problems.

M A T E R I A L S R E S O U R C E S -- A M A J O R ISSUE

Materials recently have received an unprecedented level of national attention and consciousness in the United States. The 1973 report of the National Commission on Materials Policy, following three years of data gathering on the supply, use, recovery and disposal of materials, is serving as a guideline for new governmental policy and legislation. A new National Commission on Supplies and Storages has just been enacted to develop a permanent governmental infrastructure to be concerned about materials. Over 100 pieces of materialsrelated legislation were introduced into the 93rd Congressional Session in the U.S. -- an extraordinary degree of political interest in materials. But probably the most dramatic factor which helped focus industrial and public consciousness was the shortage of materials syndrome which characterized the past year -- even before the energy crunch. Perhaps, for one of those unusual times, in the absence of a war or a national emergency, U.S. industry (particularly that sector of industry involved in the manufacture of civilian goods) was confronted with an ongoing set of critical shortages of materials which n o t only affected profitability and productivity, but in some instances threatened the very operation of industrial concerns. Worldwide competition, impact of economic controls, international geopolitics,

past history of inadequate capacity investment, inflationary factors, etc. all combined to produce continual problems of materials shortage in industry. Supply tactics and strategy became dominant elements in the daily continuance of business operations. Thus, as a direct consequence of the troublesome events of the past year with materials supply problems and with deep concern about future availability and price trends, many industrial organizations are undertaking their own analyses of the implications of the "materials crisis". I would like to present a qualitative summary of the results of one such analysis undertaken by one U.S. auto company with reference to its own perspective and outlook on the problems of materials resources and supply. Addressing the materials issue from the viewpoint of the automobile and the automotive industry has a special significance today, since it so neatly embodies the trinity of interdependencies among materials, energy and environment as a total resource system. Indeed it appears t h a t materials, as much as energy and environmental control, will determine the nature of our future vehicle lines and manufacturing operations. Materials conservation and rising materials costs can be additional pressures for smaller/ lighter weight vehicles.

AUTOMOTIVE UTILIZATION OF MATERIALS

In order to establish a base line for interpreting the implications of materials resources and economics trends, let me acquaint y o u with the mix of materials which comprise current vehicles. A reasonably representative tabulation of the materials content for a typical vehicle is shown in Table 1. In converting these starting materials inputs into a finished vehicle, you may note that: (a) Iron and steel are still the most widely used materials and account for about 75% of the finished vehicle weight. (b) We generate about 1/2 ton of steel scrap per vehicle in our manufacturing operations. (c) Aluminum, copper and zinc comprise about 5% of the vehicle weight. (d) Plastics use has grown to about 3% of the finished weight. As y o u would expect, the automotive industry accounts for a substantial share of the total U.S. consumption of materials, as shown in Fig. 1.

TABLE 1

I00%

Rough weight of materials in 1974 Ford composite vehicle Material

Lb. per vehicle

% of total

Steel Ferrous castings Aluminum Copper Nickel Zinc Lead Glass Plastics Rubber

3,368 lb. 761 65 36 2 58 32 115 120 132

71.8 16.2 1.3 0.76 0.04 1.2 0.7 2.4 2.6 2.8

Total

4,689 lb.

(a) Automotive utilization in 1972 constituted 20% of the national use of iron and steel. (b) 68% of the lead usage and 33% of zinc consumption are by the automotive industry. (c) Aluminum utilization has been relatively small until n o w claiming a b o u t 9% of national use, b u t may rise in the future. (d) Plastics utilization n o w accounts for

80%

66 ~

AUTOMOTIVE AS% OFU.S60~

~ ~

CONSUMPTION

68 ~

~ ~

o

Fig. 1. Automotive industry materials consumption in 1972.

5% of U.S. plastics consumption, b u t we are major users of ABS (10%), polyurethane (22%) and reinforced polyesters (12%). (e) Introduction of catalytic converters in 1975 has turned the automotive industry into a dominant (70%) consumer of platinum/palladium precious metals. The 1975 catalytic converters will also require as much 12%

TABLE 2 Sources of U.S. mineral requirements (1972)* Mineral

% U.S. requirements imported

Major foreign sources

100% 96 95 77 74

U.S.S.R., South Africa, Rhodesia Jamaica, Surinam, Canada, Australia Brazil, Gabon, South Africa, Zaire Malaysia, Thailand, Bolivia Canada, Norway

Zinc Tungsten Vanadium Iron

52 44 32 28

Canada, Mexico, Peru Canada, Bolivia, Peru, South Korea South Africa, Chile, U.S.S.R.

Lead Copper

26 18

Canada, Australia, Peru, Mexico Canada, Peru, Chile, Zambia, Zaire

Metals Chromium Aluminum (Bauxite and Metal) Manganese Tin Nickel

Canada, Venezuela, Japan, European Economic Community (EEC)

Polymers Rubber (Natural) Petrochemicals (Plastics and Synthetic Rubber)

100% 29

~A

Malaysia Central and South America, Canada, Middle East

*Source: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy (1973).

chromium type stainless steel as the steel industry produced in 1973.

MATERIALS

RESOURCE

AVAILABILITY

If we examine the sources of our industrial raw materials, we can note that the U.S. has been heavily dependent upon imports for its raw materials supply. It is likely to become more dependent in the future. As Table 2 shows, nearly all of our chromium, bauxite, manganese and natural rubber and most of our tin and nickel are now imported. Only in the case of iron, copper and lead is the U.S. even approximately self-sufficient. Some of these raw materials are in sensitive geopolitical areas and may encounter potential accessibility problems. The recent OPEC oil embargo and its economic consequences raise the serious concern of vulnerability to "collective group" action by mineral producing countries. Aluminum (bauxite) has already

been subjected to a major royalty increase by Jamaica, which supplies 60% of U.S. bauxite. But as Brooks and Andrews of the Canadian Department of Energy, Mines and Resources have recently reported [7], the notion of running out of mineral supplies in a physical sense is meaningless. The entire planet is composed of minerals and man can hardly mine himself out. Some of the elements that are most important to society, e.g., iron and aluminum, are available in the greatest quantity. Further, many mineral resources increase in q u a n t i t y as the quality goes down. To quote " . . . In short, almost every bit of evidence we have indicates the existence of vast quantities of mineral resources that could be mined and, further, that either as their price goes up or as their cost goes down (which is to say, as technology of extraction improves}, the volume of mineable material increases significantly -- n o t by a factor of 5 or 10 but by a factor of 100 or 1000. The real question, then, is not whether resources exist but at what rate different

TABLE 3 U.S. r e s e r v e s a n d r e s o u r c e s o f a u t o m o t i v e m i n e r a l s * R e s e r v e s ( a t 1 9 7 1 p r i c e s ) as % of probable cumulative demand, 1971 - 2000

R e s o u r c e s as % o f m i n i m u m anticipated cumulative demand 1971 - 2000

67% 87 50 48 24

200 70 70 200 200

3% 5 17 0 0 0

200 - 1,000% 70 - 2 0 0 30 - 70 70 - 2 0 0 Insignificant Insignificant

14% Adequate 25 6

70 1,000 30 30 -

Sufficient supply up to 1980 Iron Copper Lead Zinc Vanadium

- 1,000% - 200 * 200 - 1,000 - 1,000

Insufficient supply up to 1980 Aluminum Nickel Tungsten Manganese Chromium Tin Others Petroleum Coal N a t u r a l gas Platinum

200% plus 70 70

*Reserves are mineral deposits which can be exploited profitably under present economic conditions. Resources are reasonably known deposits, but requiring greater investment and additional technological developments. Source: Final Report of the National Commission on Materials Policy (1973).

sources of supply will become available to man in the sense of becoming economically feasible to recover". In contrast with energy, the world does not now face acute shortages of mineral resources. They are a b u n d a n t with well developed techniques for exploitation. To appreciate better this economic view of minerals availability, it is necessary to distinguish between "reserves" and "resources" -terms whose distinctions are often blurred. "Reserves" are those mineral deposits which are being mined at today's prices and today's technology. "Resources" are reasonably known deposits, usually of leaner ore content, requiring greater investment and additional technological availability. The difference between reserves and resources becomes important in the consideration of future availability as compared with current or projected consumption. This can be seen in the next two tables (Tables 3 and 4) which compare U.S. and world reserves and resources. Table 3 tabulates the reserves and resources for the U.S. as a function of the probable cumulative demand for

the period 1971 - 2000. You can note that U.S. mineral reserves are sufficiently limited so that we will most likely import an increasing percentage of our mineral needs between now and the year 2000. But, if adverse conditions dictate, or if it becomes economically attractive, we could choose to develop further our mineral resources. For the rest of this decade, our needs for iron, copper, lead and zinc can be supplied from known reserves; resources could provide required supplies up to the year 2000. With respect to reserves of aluminum, platinum, chromium, manganese and tin, the U.S. is in a much poorer supply position. Aluminum can be provided, if we wish, from U.S. resources but continued dependence upon foreign sources will be required for chromium, tin, platinum, tungsten and probably manganese. Even from a world point of view, some mineral reserves are far from unlimited. As Table 4 suggests, only by developing less economically favorable resources, can we expect such materials as copper, tungsten, lead, zinc and tin to be available much beyond the year

TABLE 4 World reserves and resources of automotive minerals* Reserves Years of supply (Base -- 1971 consumption)

Resources Estimated additional years of supply (Base -- 1971 consumption)

110 yrs. 185 100 370

Large Large Large Large

64 yrs. 60 45 42 ~23 23 17

Large Large 50 NA 100 plus 100 30

119 yrs. 35

NA 200 plus (Shale oil and coal)

Minimal world supply problem Iron Aluminum Nickel Vanadium Increasing world supply/ cost problem Chromium Manganese Copper Tungsten Lead Zinc Tin

Others Platinum Petroleum

*Reserves are mineral deposits w h i c h c a n be exploited profitably under present economic conditions. Resources are reasonably known deposits, but requiring greater investment and additional technological developme n ~ . Source: 2nd & 3rd Annual Reports of the Secretary of the Interior (1973, 1974).

of materials supply. As a consequence of past inadequate investments by the processing industries in production capacity, we can anticipate materials shortages and supply problems as an ongoing way of life. Competition among nations for the world's raw materials and energy will be more intense than during any time in the past. All of these factors assuredly will mean higher materials costs. The above data on raw materials availability

2000. The petroleum problem presents the most critical issue -- only through coal or shale oil utilization can we provide the long range hydrocarbon supply for plastics production. Although the overall resource availability picture for the next ten years is reasonably favorable, the general issue of mineral resources availability must be separated from the specific features of accessibility and production capacity, which more directly impact the question BOOC L

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tend to support the thesis that at least for a respectable future term (50 to 75 years) we are not resource limited as a principal limitation. But this does not easily avoid the major social and political, and for that matter economic, problems which will be involved in large volume resource exploitation. However, it seems fair to assert that mineral resources will not limit growth within this time framework. Growing demands due to population growth, increased per capita income, accelerated industrialization of the lesser developed countries and the spread of technology can be satisfied. In this sense, it is of interest to note that a new type of analysis, known as intensity of use analysis, suggests that demands of industrialized nations tend to decrease with increasing gross national product [8]. The classic exponential curve for copper consumption is shown in Fig. 2. But note in Fig. 3 how, as per capita income rises in industrialized countries, the METRIC TONS PER BtLLION DOLLARS GDP

CHART I

intensity of use (quantity consumed/unit of national product) first rises also, then peaks and finally begins to decline. Absolute consumption obviously increases, but the increase is less than that projected by other types of trend analyses. In fact, as Table 5 shows, except for aluminum, whose intensity of use curve is still rising, most other c o m m o n metals will exhibit a decline by the year 2000.

M A T E R I A L S COSTS

By and large during the past decade, materials have followed closely cost of living and inflationary trends. But since the energy crunch of last year, materials price increases have pushed the materials fraction of our total costs to an all-time high. In fact, materials costs have displaced labor costs as being the largest contributor to the increased inflationary costs

R E F I N E D COPPER: I N T E N S I T Y . O F - U S E

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GDP p e r C a p i t a Fig. 3. Intensity of use trends for c o p p e r [8].

(1971)

10000

TABLE 5 Intensity of use trends (1000 metric tons/billion GNP) Commodity

Non U.S.

U.S. 1966-69

Crude steel Aluminum Copper Zinc Solid fuel Liquid fuel Natural gas GNP ($ billions) Population (millions) GNP/capita

2000 85 5000 1400 900 337 675 450 3135

158 2170 1990 1430 784 648 182 2325

154 3718 1830 1270 653 763 202 8360

203

300

3330

6130

4842

10450

698

1364

I00%

92 -

T6

BT I--

% INCREASE60%

SINCE OCTOBER 19T3

4o~ -

3~

2000

136 3480 1920 1230 461 836 740 983

of automotive vehicle production. Some of the sharp increases which have occurred in major automotive materials are shown in Fig. 4. For example, steel has increased 36%, aluminum 56%, zinc 87% and magnesium 92%. Despite the dramatic price rises which have taken place, it is anticipated that by 1980 some materials prices are expected to increase significantly faster than the inflation rate. The optimistic hope, however, is that the anticipated price structure will be adequate to provide the economic incentives to support needed capacity expansion. Major capacity expansions already have been announced b y basic plastic producers. The most serious tight supply problem probably will be with steel and ferrous castings. Some projections for the steel

80~

1966-69

V~

!

0[.... Fig. 4. Materials price increases from September 1973 to September 1974.

industry indicate a 2 - 10 million ton shortfall by 1980.

MATERIALS AND THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Having now brought together Malthus and materials, it's time to introduce the third member of the title of this paper. The materials supply problem is b u t one of a set of new pressures confronting the automotive industry. Today and for the future we must cope with such interactive issues as: materials shortages; energy crisis; exhaust emission controls; manufacturing environment control; safety, damageability and crashworthiness; fuel e c o n o m y and weight reduction; noise; recycling and solid waste disposal; and product durability and reliability. Materials are a c o m m o n key feature underlying our efforts to deal with all of these problems. The energy crunch has made weight reduction, in particular, a new way of life for the automotive industry. Starting with a b o u t 1971, increasing vehicle weight as a consequence of product improvements and the added requirements of safety, damageability and emission control systems became a problem of real concern with respect to deteriorating fuel economy. To counter this "weighty a u t o m o b i l e " problem, lighter weight/higher strength materials, lighter designs and structures and new vehicle size and weight concepts are being extensively developed. Car-size reduction, p e r se, offers an imme-

10

diate partial solution to the weight problem and the related fuel e c o n o m y problem. Within the past several years a broad range of compact and sub-compact vehicles have been introduced in the United States to meet this challenge. The Monarch, being one of the most recent introductions from my own c o m p a n y at the high end of the compact car line-up, is representative of a major new thrust by the U.S. automotive industry to cope with the interdependencies of materials supplies, energy/fuel e c o n o m y considerations and economics. But what has become apparent is that materials supply and cost considerations, in addition to the problem of fuel e c o n o m y , are becoming equally important determinants in the design of our vehicles, in the choice of materials from which they are made and in the manufacturing operations involved. Size reduction to small cars, however, is not the complete answer to the weight problem or to materials conservation. Weight reduction and materials conservation can also be enhanced through more efficient design, use of lighter weight substitute materials, exploitation of manufacturing processes which generate less scrap and provide for more efficient utilization of materials and through recycling and reuse of scrap. An adequate treatment of the responses taking place in the automotive industry for coping with these new sets of materials pressures would be another paper by itself. Let me then discuss briefly just two areas of materials technology which will provide some indications of the scope of the research and development programs underway to increase'the productive utilization of available materials and to offset tight supply and increasing costs of materials.

LIGHT-WEIGHT MATERIALS

One approach to the problem of weight saving is through the substitution of light-weight materials for steel. Design studies and advanced vehicle programs have indicated that substantial weight savings opportunities are possible through the utilization of high strength steels, aluminum alloys and plastics. All three sometimes are in direct competition as substitutes for the low carbon steel so widely used in vehicle bodies and structures. Direct weight savings through materials is enhanced by sec-

ondary design savings of support members because of the lighter structure. In principle, one pound of materials weight saving enables 1/3 to 1/2 pound additional saving in structural design. One of the major factors contributing to the increased weight of current vehicles was the energy absorbing front bumper introduced in 1973. To minimize this weight penalty, new higher strength (HSLA) steels were used extensively in our 1974 vehicles as bumper reinforcement bars. It is possible that some 50 - 75 pounds of weight savings might be achieved through the direct substitution of these new steels for a b o u t 300 pounds of conventional hot-rolled steels in a broad range of components. Aluminum with a three-fold weight advantage over steel obviously offers significant potential for weight reduction. We n o w use up to about 75 pounds of aluminum in current car models. A wide variety of aluminum applications are under intensive development. Hoods, deck lids, bumpers, doors, floor decks, engine components, radiators and wiring harnesses are typical of the components being evaluated. There still are open technical issues to be completely resolved and there may be significant cost penalties involved with the use of aluminum sheet stampings. But the overall systems advantages from major integrated weight reduction might reduce the cost disadvantages to acceptable levels. Among the new parameters in the future substitution of aluminum are the cost uncertainty and supply assurance. The aluminum industry is already performing at almost full capacity and increased automotive utilization of even 100 pounds per car will require major industrial expansion from the initial raw materials to foundry capacity and other fabricating facilities. In the n e w tight market place of materials any major shift in specific automotive materials usage or substitutions will require meshing with capacity plans of material producers. This may be particularly true for plastics, which are so sensitive to the petrochemical feedstock supply situation. Petrochemical feedstocks currently consume a b o u t 5% of the supply of petroleum. By far the most dramatic growth of all of the automotive materials has been in plastics. I would remind y o u of the "quiet revolution"

11 U.S. AUTOMOBILEAVERAGECAR PLASTICSUSAGE

150~-POUNDS

~2~

I00~

PERCAR50

90/7 3/

1940 1945 1950 1955 t960 1905 1970 1975 MODELYEAR Fig. 5. U.S. automobile average car plastics usage.

which has taken place in the interior of your cars -- y o u find virtually an "all plastics" treatment and almost exclusive use of synthetic materials. The average 1973 car contained approximately 130 pounds of plastics (Fig. 5); conservative projections prior to the energy crisis indicated a continuing significant increase in vehicle plastics usage by 1980. The stakes have become very high with new fabrication methods and new polymeric formulations opening up the vehicle market to exterior b o d y use and structural applications. But perhaps the real kick-off was the demonstrated experience that redesign in plastics would provide improved productivity and cost benefits, despite the often higher unit materials costs. Reduction in number of parts, assembly operations and labor all combined to produce a net cost savings. This is particularly true for front end assemblies. Body panels, energy absorbing bumpers, deck lids, hoods, etc. are other application possibilities receiving much attention. Continued development of plastic fabrication techniques, amenable to large volume production and higher forming rates, approaching metal stamping operations, will further accelerate exterior application developments. It would appear that the competitive usage positions of steel, aluminum, plastics and other related materials, will depend markedly upon the relative price and capacity trends during the next few years. For some applications, relatively modest shift in prices can change the cost effectiveness and shift competitive aspects of substitution possibilities. H o w much is a pound of weight savings worth? The answer to that simple question proves to be more complex than would at first appear. Certainly, as a generalization,

lighter (smaller) cars have better fuel e c o n o m y than heavier (larger) cars. But the beneficial effects of reducing weight of any given car depend u p o n the initial weight of the car, size of engine, weight distribution, transmission and drive train features, emission requirements and other factors. Small cars benefit about twice as much from an increment in weight savings as large cars. But for any size, the beneficial effect of a 100 pound weight reduction is rather small, especially with respect to fuel economy. In fact, to achieve significant fuel e c o n o m y improvements, hundreds of pounds of weight reductions must be introduced. Unfortunately, the utilization of the light-weight materials to achieve these effects also introduces significant initial cost penalties. In those cases in which materials weight reduction permits engine or tire downsizing or the use of lighter suspensions, smaller brakes, etc., the cost effectiveness of weight saving can be meaningful. Cost of vehicle ownership and operation over the service life of the vehicle (life cycle costs) are other factors which also enter into the weight saving/cost equation.

RECYCLING OF MATERIALS The automobile represents the country's greatest single source of recyclable materials; 80 - 90% of discarded junk cars now are being recycled for their scrap content. From being a national disposal problem, the junk car has become a national resource in terms of its recyclable materials content. In fact, the junk car now is the most recyclable and recycled of post consumer products -- some 30 - 50% of post-consumer steel scrap comes from junk vehicles. But y o u will note from Fig. 6 the growing volume of plastics utilization in current vehicles. Unlike metals, little attention has been paid until recently to the recovery and reutilization of scrap plastics and polymeric materials. However, Fig. 7 indicates the total annual amount of plastics materials which will be produced as waste from junk cars for the remainder of the decade. Since more than half the 8 million cars scrapped each year in the U.S. are processed by about 125 auto shredders these can be concentration sites for plastics scrap. After about 1975, million p o u n d quart-

12 1600

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Fig° 8. Schematic representation of auto shredder operationo

200 0 :~:~:~:"~:~:":-:~:~:"!:!:[:: i:~ :~:~:?':::::~:'~:~:~::' :::~:~::::::::':~:~:::':::::::':::::::::::::"::::::":::::::":::2 '59 '63 '67 '71 '75 YEAR

Fig. 6. Consumption of plastics by the U.S. automotive industry. tities of plastics will be generated at auto shredder locations. A shredder is a giant hammer mill machine which shreds entire automobiles into fist size fragments. The process (Fig. 8) produces three fractions: (a) A magnetic or ferrous fraction which is transported to steel mills and foundries for reuse, (b) A non-magnetic fraction which is shipped from many shredders to a few non-ferrous metal recovery plants, and (c) An air fraction consisting of low density materials, used in the past for landfill. These considerations led to a cooperative Ford - U.S. Bureau of Mines program [9] to explore methods for the recovery of disposal of these large quantities of plastics materials. Early results indicated that the recovery of I000 900 8OO 7OO MILLIONS OF POUNDS

I/'-D"JSE pARATON"-'m'IFffAC'TIb}W I

600

600 500 40( 300 200 I00 0 '71

'73

'75 '77 YEAR

'79

'81

Fig. 7. Scrap plastics generated from junk cars.

plastics from shredded junk cars is technically feasible. In our own laboratory, we have developed a relatively simple hydrolysis m e t h o d which converts waste polyurethane foam into a liquid residue with a striking reduction in volume. The liquid itself, it is believed, can be used as a refoaming agent for new polyurethane foam products. Engineering scale-up of this process is n o w underway. The process, of course, is adaptable to the reclamation of polyurethane waste generated during the manufacture of virgin foam products in our own plants. The non-ferrous fraction from the shredders can be treated by dense media techniques for additional separation of materials. Table 6 shows the results of the density separation of plastics from the non-ferrous fraction of a shredded 1972 auto. Injection remolding of a fraction rich in unfilled ABS indicates that the remolded materials have physical properties comparable with those of virgin reground ABS. Work is underway to improve the impact properties of the remolded scrap through the use of blending agents. Recycling methods are also being explored for other plastics. One of the interesting questions to be answered is the possible degradation effects of long term aging, in service, on the properties of the reclaimed scrap. The utilization of polymeric wastes as an energy (heat) source or for direct conversion into crude oil is believed by many to be more attractive and feasible for the reclamation and reutilization of plastics scrap. But which form of recycling process will predominate depends upon technological developments, future economics of virgin and scrap plastics and materials/ energy priorities and trade-offs. Certainly recycling and recovery of wastes

13 TABLE 6 Analysis of products from the density separation of the nonmagnetic fraction (1972 Montego two-door G.T. hardtop sedan) [9 ] Product

PMMA ABS (filled) ABS (unfilled) Polyvinyl butyral PVC-coated fabric Rubber

1,075 ~ d ~ 1.0 (lb.)

1.16 ~ d ~ 1.075 (lb.)

1.20 ~ d ~ 1.16 (--1 inch) (+1 inch) (lb.) (lb.)

0.04 2.84

2.57

15.3

0.4

0.87 0.06 3.63

-- industrial and post c ons um e r -- represents a key feature for any national conservation ethic. The recycling o f junk vehicles may represent a model system as to what can be achieved when favorable economics, industrial t e c h n o l o g y and national needs coexist [10].

CONCLUSION

The issue of materials resources has taken on new dimensions as a consequence of the growing recognition of the finite nature of the earth's resources. But the i n f o r m a t i o n on materials reserves and resources does n o t lend itself Co the characterization of a resourcelimited materials crisis within a respectable time framework. At least for materials, NeoMalthusian, d o o m s d a y prophesies do n o t appear to be tenable or sensible. But serious f u t u r e supply and shortage problems are indicated and call for effective d e v e l o p m e n t of materials resources, accessibility of materials supply and effective utilization practices. In effect what is needed t h r o u g h o u t t he industrialized world is a new ethic of conservation based u p o n the efficient and effective utilization of materials and materials resources. Rational and sensible actions and implementations o f such a conservation ethic would chart a rational course of controlled and acceptable growth between the dialectic extremes of the Neo-Malthusian Limits t o G r o w t h and the Cornucopian unrestricted growth philosophies. Despite its implicit rejection by the NeoMalthusian school, it is t e c h n o l o g y which will provide the options for alternative growth paths. While values and ethics m a y be the f u n d a m e n t a l dynamics at play, it would appear t h a t tech-

0.16 0.66

3.33 1.66

nology would be an essential factor in easing any cultural transformation of c o n s u m p t i o n habits. I have a t t e m p t e d in this paper to show how the issues of resource availability, materials supply and price escalations are new types of external factors impacting the a u t o m o t i v e industry and our future vehicle plans. We expect these types of pressures to continue into the future and to intensify o t h e r pressures as well. Clearly materials, energy and envi ronm ent must be considered together as an i n t e r d e p e n d e n t resource system for optimized trade-offs. In a real sense, the com bi nat i on of these new pressures and market forces has motivated a conservation challenge and initiative to the aut om ot i ve industry -- conservation as effective and efficient utilization o f materials. Smaller, lighter-weight cars (such as the Monarch) are one answer to the concern about materials resources. But, in addition, recycling, materials substitution, superior materials manufacturing technologies and high-efficiency design concepts will provide key elements of the total response of the a u t o m o t i v e industry to meeting these materials resources challenges.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The a u t h o r wishes to acknowledge the assistance of Dr. H. Heller in developing the inf o r m a t i o n about the status of materials reserves and resources.

REFERENCES 1 D.L. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, Universe Books, 1972.

14 2 G. Hardin, Tragedy of the commons, Science, 162 (1968) 1243. 3 R.L. Heilbroner, An Inquiry Into The Human Prospect, W.W. Norton and Co., 1974. 4 J.J. Harwood, Ethics and Resource Management, Syrup. on Ethics in an Age of Pervasive Technology, Technion, Israel, Dec. 1974. 5 F. Osborne, Our Plundered Planet, Little Brown and Co., 1948. 6 S.H. Ordway, Resources and the American Dream, Ronald Press, N.Y., 1953.

7 D.P. Brooks and P.W. Andrews, Mineral resources, economic growth and world population, Science, 185 (1974) 13. 8 W. Malenbaum, Materials Requirements in the United States and Abroad in the Year 2000, Univ. of Pennsylvania, 1973. 9 E.G. Valdez, K.C. Dean, J.H. Bilbrey and L.R. Mahoney, in preparation. 10 L.R. Mahoney and J.J. Harwood, The Automobile as a Renewable Resource, in preparation.