- Email: [email protected]
Ontario hydro's strong charts a new course
T
H
E
Oil, Gas Forecasts Have ‘Malthusian Bias’
A
study published by the MIT Center for International Studies has concluded that long-term oil and gas forecasting are biased in the direction of higher prices and lower supply The report, prepared by research affiliate Michael Lynch, analyzes global oil and gas supply and price information. It faults the scientific consensus underlying most existing forecasts, concluding that a “Malthusian bias” of inherent scarcity underlies all of them. It concludes that their pessimism is “an exogenous assumption, rather than an analytical result.” Copies of the iconoclastic 72-page report are available for $9 (incl. postage and handling); call (617) 253-5806 or fax (617) 253-9330.
PSI’s Big Win on Coal F
ollowinga successful suit by
PSI Energy to break a longterm coal contract with Exxon Coal’s Monterey Coal Co., the company’s No. 2 mine in Southem Illinois has halted production Exxon has appealed the decision from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Indiana to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Indianapolis. The PSI contract included periodic reopeners, but when 15 months of negotiation with Exxon
8
NEWS
I’N
F
on the last reopener failed to produce agreement, PSI solicited other bids and picked a $23 per ton offer from Black Beauty Coal Co. in Southern Indiana. Exxon offered to match Black Beauty’s price, which amounted to a discount of $15 per ton, but could not match the lower sulfur content of Black Beauty coal. When PSI asked the court to bless its decision to terminate the contract with Exxon, it did. PSI says the new deal will save $405 million over 10 years. The contract repro sents about 25% of PSI’s total fuel requirements.
PGE, Replacing a Nuke
D
irectors of Portland General Electric Co. have voted not to restart the 1216 MW Trojan nuclear plant, of which PGE owns 67.5%. Pacific Power & Light owns 2.5% of the plant, while Eugene Water and Electric Board’s 30% share has been assigned to the Bonneville Power Administration. PGE’s decision was prompted by a new assessment of the cost of repair of the 1100 MW plant and uncertainty
0
C
U
S
over what level of repair and refurbishment would satisfy the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and likely opponents of the unit’s continued operation. In a related sphere, PGE has been quick on its feet, announcing a joint natural gas procurement effort in concert with Northwest Natural Gas, a gas distribution company On January 25, these Portland-based electric and gas utilities announced a unique program to bring natural gas from Alberta into the Portland area - to PGE for use in its electric generating stations, and to Northwest Natural to supply its natural gas customers. Gas deliveries will come over Pacific Gas Transmission Co. and Northwest Pipeline Corp. facilities. Richard Reiten, PGE president, said the access to Canadian gas enables the company to move forward with plans to replace a portion of the Trojan plant’s output with natural gas-fueled cogeneration and combustion turbine plants. PGE vice president of power supply Dick Dyer added that the agreement would give his utility access to gas supplies in British Columbia as well as Alberta.
Ontario Hydrok Strong Charts a New Course
W
ith Ontario Premier’s Bob Rae’s naming of Maurice Strong to become chairman of Ontario Hydro, the provincial government has signalled a dra-
7-h ElectricityJournal
T
H
E
NEWS
matically new direction for North America’s second largest utility. Strong, who is Canada’s highest profile insider-environmentalist, recently served as major domo of last June’s UNCED Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, a position of no little prestige in which he acquitted himself well. He previously served on the board of state-owned Petro-Canada.
$*
1
/ 1 i ! I
1
As Hydro’s chief, Strong faces serious and immediate challenges, as the state-owned utility now faces a series of painful rate increases. Hydro has already proposed a 15-25% reduction in its previously proposed ten-year, $2 billion capital expansion budget, in part to respond to a dramatitally lower forecast of energy needs.
MEETINGS
Conference
F
IN
OF Date
Place
0
c
u
s
The utility is also offering an early-out package to 12,000 of its 28,000 employees, and is cutting back on expected contract commitments on many fronts. It has cancelled a plan to buy 1000 MW of long-term power from Manitoba Hydra - which carries a $100 million-plus cancellation charge- and has halted still-in1 complete commitments to buy
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Mar. 9
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Engineering and Operations Workshop
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Regulatory Restructuring; Regional Transmission Groups
Mar. 18-19
Washington, D.C.
EXNET
(212) 3718320 Fax: (212) 371-8325
6th Natl. DSM Conference
Mar. 24-26
Miami Beach, FL
EPRI, U.S. DOE, EEI and others
Pam Tumer (415) 855-8900
G~oe~~cw ‘93 Conference and Expo
Apr. 21-22
Anaheim, CA
Ass’n of Energy Engineers
(404) 9259558 Far (464) 4463969
Electricity Conference 1993
Apr. 21-22
Washington Marriott, Washington, D.C.
Executive Entetphses
1-8cO-831-8333 (212) 645-8689
Sdar Emerging: The Realfii
Apr. 22-28
Washington, D.C.
American Sdar Energy Society, ASME, and others
(303) 443-3136 Fax: (303) 4433212
State Regulation and the Market Potential for Natural Gas
Apr. 26-28
Fairrnont Hotel, New Orleans
NARUC and DOE
Mike Fdey (262) m-2214
Managing DSM Programs
May 13-14
Washington, DC.
Association of Energy Engineers
(404) 925-9633
56th Annual EEI Marketing Conference and Expo
May 1421
Hyatt Regency, Kansas City
Edison Electrii InsMute
(202) 508-5452 Fax: (202) 5fH403
By vs. Build Conference
May 26
Washington, DC.
The EfectricityJournal
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Electric and Magnetic Fields Workshop
May 24-25
Washington, DC.
EEI, APPA, NRECA
(262) 5085006
DSM and the Global Environment
Jun. 24-25
Hyatt Regency, Arlington, VA
EPRI, EEL NEES, Synergic Rescurces
Rick Tempchin (262) 5085558
NARUC Summer Committee Meetings
Jul. 25-29
Westin St. Francis San Francisco
NARUC
(262) 898-2200
Januay~ebrua y 2993
WSLWdXtP@
National Assoc&tion of Regulatory UBii Commissioners
+
Institute for International Research
(262) 898-2206 Fax: (262) 698-2213 1-890-345-6616 I?.....m,n\ MP C”,. ran.,rrqo0Jw+II
H
E
Oil, Gas Forecasts Have ‘Malthusian Bias’
A
study published by the MIT Center for International Studies has concluded that long-term oil and gas forecasting are biased in the direction of higher prices and lower supply The report, prepared by research affiliate Michael Lynch, analyzes global oil and gas supply and price information. It faults the scientific consensus underlying most existing forecasts, concluding that a “Malthusian bias” of inherent scarcity underlies all of them. It concludes that their pessimism is “an exogenous assumption, rather than an analytical result.” Copies of the iconoclastic 72-page report are available for $9 (incl. postage and handling); call (617) 253-5806 or fax (617) 253-9330.
PSI’s Big Win on Coal F
ollowinga successful suit by
PSI Energy to break a longterm coal contract with Exxon Coal’s Monterey Coal Co., the company’s No. 2 mine in Southem Illinois has halted production Exxon has appealed the decision from the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Indiana to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Indianapolis. The PSI contract included periodic reopeners, but when 15 months of negotiation with Exxon
8
NEWS
I’N
F
on the last reopener failed to produce agreement, PSI solicited other bids and picked a $23 per ton offer from Black Beauty Coal Co. in Southern Indiana. Exxon offered to match Black Beauty’s price, which amounted to a discount of $15 per ton, but could not match the lower sulfur content of Black Beauty coal. When PSI asked the court to bless its decision to terminate the contract with Exxon, it did. PSI says the new deal will save $405 million over 10 years. The contract repro sents about 25% of PSI’s total fuel requirements.
PGE, Replacing a Nuke
D
irectors of Portland General Electric Co. have voted not to restart the 1216 MW Trojan nuclear plant, of which PGE owns 67.5%. Pacific Power & Light owns 2.5% of the plant, while Eugene Water and Electric Board’s 30% share has been assigned to the Bonneville Power Administration. PGE’s decision was prompted by a new assessment of the cost of repair of the 1100 MW plant and uncertainty
0
C
U
S
over what level of repair and refurbishment would satisfy the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and likely opponents of the unit’s continued operation. In a related sphere, PGE has been quick on its feet, announcing a joint natural gas procurement effort in concert with Northwest Natural Gas, a gas distribution company On January 25, these Portland-based electric and gas utilities announced a unique program to bring natural gas from Alberta into the Portland area - to PGE for use in its electric generating stations, and to Northwest Natural to supply its natural gas customers. Gas deliveries will come over Pacific Gas Transmission Co. and Northwest Pipeline Corp. facilities. Richard Reiten, PGE president, said the access to Canadian gas enables the company to move forward with plans to replace a portion of the Trojan plant’s output with natural gas-fueled cogeneration and combustion turbine plants. PGE vice president of power supply Dick Dyer added that the agreement would give his utility access to gas supplies in British Columbia as well as Alberta.
Ontario Hydrok Strong Charts a New Course
W
ith Ontario Premier’s Bob Rae’s naming of Maurice Strong to become chairman of Ontario Hydro, the provincial government has signalled a dra-
7-h ElectricityJournal
T
H
E
NEWS
matically new direction for North America’s second largest utility. Strong, who is Canada’s highest profile insider-environmentalist, recently served as major domo of last June’s UNCED Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, a position of no little prestige in which he acquitted himself well. He previously served on the board of state-owned Petro-Canada.
$*
1
/ 1 i ! I
1
As Hydro’s chief, Strong faces serious and immediate challenges, as the state-owned utility now faces a series of painful rate increases. Hydro has already proposed a 15-25% reduction in its previously proposed ten-year, $2 billion capital expansion budget, in part to respond to a dramatitally lower forecast of energy needs.
MEETINGS
Conference
F
IN
OF Date
Place
0
c
u
s
The utility is also offering an early-out package to 12,000 of its 28,000 employees, and is cutting back on expected contract commitments on many fronts. It has cancelled a plan to buy 1000 MW of long-term power from Manitoba Hydra - which carries a $100 million-plus cancellation charge- and has halted still-in1 complete commitments to buy
INTEREST sponsor
Contact
NAFWC Winter Committee Meetings
Feb. 28-Mar. 4
J.W. Marriott Hotel, Washington, D.C.
Biiing for Power
Mar. 3-5
,*,^^I.:-&.. ““asclryluul, n“.ti.yr
The
Alternative Fuel Vehicles
Mar. 9
Marriott Hotel Poruand, OR
US DOE, Oregon DOE
(503) 378-7998
Engineering and Operations Workshop
Mar. 9-11
Phoenix, AZ
APPA
(202) 467-m Fax: (262) 467-2910
Regulatory Restructuring; Regional Transmission Groups
Mar. 18-19
Washington, D.C.
EXNET
(212) 3718320 Fax: (212) 371-8325
6th Natl. DSM Conference
Mar. 24-26
Miami Beach, FL
EPRI, U.S. DOE, EEI and others
Pam Tumer (415) 855-8900
G~oe~~cw ‘93 Conference and Expo
Apr. 21-22
Anaheim, CA
Ass’n of Energy Engineers
(404) 9259558 Far (464) 4463969
Electricity Conference 1993
Apr. 21-22
Washington Marriott, Washington, D.C.
Executive Entetphses
1-8cO-831-8333 (212) 645-8689
Sdar Emerging: The Realfii
Apr. 22-28
Washington, D.C.
American Sdar Energy Society, ASME, and others
(303) 443-3136 Fax: (303) 4433212
State Regulation and the Market Potential for Natural Gas
Apr. 26-28
Fairrnont Hotel, New Orleans
NARUC and DOE
Mike Fdey (262) m-2214
Managing DSM Programs
May 13-14
Washington, DC.
Association of Energy Engineers
(404) 925-9633
56th Annual EEI Marketing Conference and Expo
May 1421
Hyatt Regency, Kansas City
Edison Electrii InsMute
(202) 508-5452 Fax: (202) 5fH403
By vs. Build Conference
May 26
Washington, DC.
The EfectricityJournal
(mS) 4484078 Fax: (206) 441-7443
Electric and Magnetic Fields Workshop
May 24-25
Washington, DC.
EEI, APPA, NRECA
(262) 5085006
DSM and the Global Environment
Jun. 24-25
Hyatt Regency, Arlington, VA
EPRI, EEL NEES, Synergic Rescurces
Rick Tempchin (262) 5085558
NARUC Summer Committee Meetings
Jul. 25-29
Westin St. Francis San Francisco
NARUC
(262) 898-2200
Januay~ebrua y 2993
WSLWdXtP@
National Assoc&tion of Regulatory UBii Commissioners
+
Institute for International Research
(262) 898-2206 Fax: (262) 698-2213 1-890-345-6616 I?.....m,n\ MP C”,. ran.,rrqo0Jw+II