reports
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Communications processors in Europe .
Software rather than hardware will experience market growth in the European communications processor field over the next four years. Average gains for hardware will be 8.4%, but software will grow by 30% annually. The greatest growth will be in gateway servers, which provide the link between different types of networks, whether wide or local area. Frost & Sullivan expects an explosion of demand during 1986 and 1987, with unit growth per year being 92%. b’alue growth will only be 78% as prices of hardware fall. However, associated software sales will more than double in value every year. Front-end processors are also expected to fare well to the end of the decade. Nearly all general-purpose computers have at least one front-end processor, so that in 1985 half the number of units shipped in the communications processor marker were FEPs. This accounts for two thirds of its value. West Germany accounts for the greatest market in communications followed by France. processors, Siemens and Nixdorf are the major suppliers in West Germany, while IBM just leads Bull in France. (Frost & Sullivan Inc., 106 Fultun Street, New York, NY f&738-2786, USA) •!
~0128 no 9
november 1986
Opticaldisc drives type
were shipped, with over half mostly read-only being types, CD-ROM. CD-ROMs are expected to remain the best sellers, especially in publishing. The report from Disk Trend estimates that 600000 CDROM drives will be shipped in 1989.
Sales of optical disc drives have been beset by problems but are forecasted to grow by over 100% annually to reach a total of $1.3B by 1989. Lack of interchange standards, media shortages and other startup problems contributed to the slow buildup of optical disc sales. In 1985 less than 15 000 optical discs of any
Table 1. Optical disc drives: worldwide shipments Type 1985 Read-only Read/write Read/write Total % growth
(< 1 Gbyte) (< 1 Gbyte
by all manufacturers
Unit shipments (‘000s) forecast 1986 1987 1988
8.3 1.4 4.9 14.6 630
Read/write drives are divided in the report into those with less and those with more than one Gbyte capacity. In the market for the smaller drives, 5.25 in models are expected to dominate at least until 1989, with starting up more manufacturers during the next year. Most of these drives will be write-once. Erasable 3.5 in disc drives will be available, with significant shipments expected by 1989. The larger read/write discs, with more than one Gbyte capacity, are expected to provide less than 9% of worldwide unit shipments of optical disc drives in 1989. Higher prices will mean that this group accounts for 59% of revenues by 1989.
30.9 10.7 12.1 53.7 267.8
110.3 58 24.6 192.9 259.2
290.5 144.5 46.6 481.5 149.6
1989 600.7 331 87.3 1 019 119.6
Erasable optical disc drives will first be shipped in 1987, but only a few will be available. Shipments will be mostly of 5.25 in and 3.5 in drives. Standards progress has been made in the area of CD-ROM drives, promoting interest in the technology. Progress has been much slower with read/write drives and associated media, holding back acceptance by system manufacturers. Agreement is now being reached on physical standards for the 5.25 in drives, but full standardization is necessary to achieve media interchange, and this will take longer. (Disk/Trend Inc., 5150 El Camino Real, Suite b-20, Los I? Altos, CA 94022, USA)
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