Optimal harvesting policy of a stochastic food chain population model

Optimal harvesting policy of a stochastic food chain population model

Applied Mathematics and Computation 245 (2014) 265–270 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Applied Mathematics and Computation journal homepag...

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Applied Mathematics and Computation 245 (2014) 265–270

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Applied Mathematics and Computation journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/amc

Optimal harvesting policy of a stochastic food chain population model Meng Liu ⇑, Chuanzhi Bai School of Mathematical Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, PR China

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Keywords: Food chain model Stochastic perturbations Optimal harvesting policy Fokker–Planck equation

a b s t r a c t This note studies the optimal harvesting policy of a stochastic three-species food chain model. The almost sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of optimal harvesting policy are established. Meanwhile, the optimal harvesting effort and the maximum of expectation of sustainable yield are obtained. Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Optimal policy in managing natural resources is one of the most important topics in mathematical biology. Clark [1], Fan and Wang [2], Dong et al. [3] and Shuai et al. [4] have considered the optimal harvesting policy of some deterministic singlespecies models. Goh et al. [5] and Kar [6] have investigated the optimal harvesting policy of species under a deterministic predator–prey framework. Braverman and Mamdani [7] have studied the optimal harvesting policy of both autonomous and nonautonomous population models with either impulsive or continuous harvesting. Braverman and Braverman [8] have established the optimal harvesting strategy of logistic, Gilpin-Ayala and Gompertz models with diffusion and harvesting. Korobenko et al. [9] have investigated the existence, positivity, persistence, extinction and stability of solutions of reaction–diffusion logistic equations with harvesting. On the other hand, in the natural world, the growth of population is inevitably subject to environmental perturbations. Thus many scholars have studied the optimal harvesting policy of stochastic population models. Beddington and May [10] have obtained the optimal harvesting policy of a classical stochastic logistic equation. The optimal harvesting of some single-species population models in stochastic environments were also examined in [11–19]. As species do not exist alone in nature, and food-chain interaction is a frequently observed phenomena among wildlife species, it is of great biological significance to consider the optimal harvesting policy of stochastic food-chain population model. However, to the best of our knowledge, there are few investigations of this kind. One reason is that it is quite difficult to solve the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation. In this note, using the results in Liu [20], we solve the corresponding Fokker–Planck equation of our food-chain model. Then we establish the almost sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of optimal harvesting policy. Meanwhile, the optimal harvest effort and the maximum of expectation of sustainable yield (ESY) are given.

⇑ Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Liu). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2014.07.103 0096-3003/Ó 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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2. Model formulation and preparation works Our system is based on the following three-species food chain system (see e.g. [1]):

8 dx ðtÞ 1 > ¼ x1 ðtÞða1  b1 x1 ðtÞ  c1 x2 ðtÞÞ; > < dt dx2 ðtÞ ¼ x2 ðtÞða2 þ b2 x1 ðtÞ  c2 x3 ðtÞÞ; dt > > : dx3 ðtÞ ¼ x3 ðtÞða3 þ b3 x2 ðtÞÞ; dt

ð1Þ

where xi is the size of the ith population, ai ; bi and c1 ; c2 are positive constants, i ¼ 1; 2; 3. Suppose that the population x1 is subject to exploitation with hx1 , where h is the harvesting effort, then system (1) becomes

8 dx ðtÞ 1 > ¼ x1 ðtÞða1  h  b1 x1 ðtÞ  c1 x2 ðtÞÞ; > < dt dx2 ðtÞ ¼ x2 ðtÞða2 þ b2 x1 ðtÞ  c2 x3 ðtÞÞ; dt > > : dx3 ðtÞ ¼ x3 ðtÞða3 þ b3 x2 ðtÞÞ: dt

ð2Þ

On the other hand, the harvesting effort h is inevitably affected by environmental noises, for example, the increasing or the decreasing of purchasing power. In this paper we assume that the noise in both nature and human society is multiplicative and generated by white noise, that is

_ h ! h þ rBðtÞ; where BðtÞ is a standard Brownian motion defined on a complete probability space ðX; fF t gt2Rþ ; PÞ with a filtration fF t gt2Rþ and r2 denotes the intensity of the noise, where Rþ ¼ ½0; þ1Þ. Then we obtain the following stochastic system

8 dx ðtÞ ¼ x1 ðtÞða1  h  b1 x1 ðtÞ  c1 x2 ðtÞÞdt þ rx1 ðtÞdBðtÞ; > < 1 dx2 ðtÞ ¼ x2 ðtÞða2 þ b2 x1 ðtÞ  c2 x3 ðtÞÞ; dt > : dx3 ðtÞ ¼ x3 ðtÞða3 þ b3 x2 ðtÞÞ: dt

ð3Þ



Our aim is to find out the optimal harvesting effort h such that (i) ESY YðhÞ ¼ limt!þ1 Eðhx1 ðtÞÞ is maximum; (ii) x1 ðtÞ; x2 ðtÞ and x3 ðtÞ will not become extinct. Now let us do some preparation. Lemma 1. For any initial data ðx1 ð0Þ; x2 ð0Þ; x2 ð0ÞÞ 2 R3þ ¼: fa ¼ ða1 ; a2 ;3 Þjai > 0; i ¼ 1; 2; 3g, there is a unique global positive solution to model (3) almost surely (a.s.). Proof. The proof is standard and hence is omitted (see e.g. [21,22]).

h

If x1 ðtÞ; x2 ðtÞ; x3 ðtÞ is the solution of system (3), then there is a transition probability density of this solution. Let

U½x1 ðt þ DtÞ; x2 ðt þ DtÞ; x3 ðt þ DtÞjx1 ðtÞ ¼ x1 ; x1 ðtÞ ¼ x2 ; x3 ðtÞ ¼ x3  be the transition probability density function of x1 ; x2 and x3 at t þ Dt given that x1 ðtÞ ¼ x1 ; x2 ðtÞ ¼ x2 and x3 ðtÞ ¼ x3 . Then U must obey the following Fokker–Planck equation

 @U @ @ @ @2  ¼ ½x1 ða1  h  b1 x1  c1 x2 ÞU  ½x2 ða2 þ b2 x1  c2 x3 ÞU  ½x3 ða3 þ b3 x2 ÞU þ 0:5 2 r2 x21 U : @x1 @x2 @x3 @t @x1

Lemma 2. For system (3), (i) If

a1  0:5r2 

c1 a3 b1 a2  < h; b3 b2

ð4Þ

then x3 ðtÞ goes to extinction a.s., i.e., limt!þ1 x3 ðtÞ ¼ 0; a:s. (ii) If

a1  0:5r2 

c1 a3 b1 a2  > h; b3 b2

ð5Þ

M. Liu, C. Bai / Applied Mathematics and Computation 245 (2014) 265–270

267

then the density of stationary distribution of solution of system (3) is



Uðx1 ; x2 ; x3 Þ ¼ m exp 

2b1

r2

 2z1   2b1 z2 1   2b1 c1 z3 1 1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 r2 b r2 b b ðx1  1Þ x1r2  exp  2 ðx2  1Þ x2 2  exp  2 ðx3 Þ  1 x3 2 3 ; r b2 r b2 b3

ð6Þ

where

z1 ¼ a1  0:5r2  h  ( m¼

exp Z





2b1

r2

þ

2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 þ r2 b2 r2 b2 b3



þ1

exp 

0

  c1 a3 c1 a3 b2 b2 c1 a3  a2 ; ; z2 ¼ ; z3 ¼ z1  a 2 ¼ a1  0:5r2  h  b3 b3 b1 b1 b3



Z

þ1

2b1 c1 c2 x x r2 b 2 b 3 3 3

r

0

2b1 c1 z3 1 r2 b2 b3

  2z1 Z 1 2b1 exp  2 x1 x1r2 dx1 

þ1 0

  2b1 z2 1 2b1 c1 r2 b exp  2 x2 x2 2 dx2 r b2

)1 dx3

ð7Þ

Proof. Denote y1 ¼ ln x1 ; y2 ¼ ln x2 ; y3 ¼ ln x3 , then by Itô’s formula,

8 2 y1 y2 > < dy1 ¼ ða1  0:5r  h  b1 e  c1 e Þdt þ rdBðtÞ; y1 y3 dy2 ¼ ða2 þ b2 e  c2 e Þdt; > : dy3 ¼ ða3 þ b3 ey2 Þdt;

ð8Þ

Let W½y1 ðt þ DtÞ; y2 ðt þ DtÞ; y3 ðt þ DtÞjy1 ðtÞ ¼ y1 ; y1 ðtÞ ¼ y2 ; y3 ðtÞ ¼ y3  stand for the transition probability density function of the solution process of (8). Then W must obey the following Fokker–Planck equation in steady state:

  @  @ @ @2  ða1  0:5r2  h  b1 ey1  c1 ey2 ÞW þ ½ða2 þ b2 ey1  c2 ey3 ÞW þ ½ða3 þ b3 ey2 ÞW  0:5 2 r2 W @y1 @y2 @y3 @y1       @ b2 @ r2 @ W @ b3 @ r2 b2 @ W ðz1  b1 ey1 ÞW  þ ðz2  c1 ey2 ÞW    ¼ @y1 b1 @y2 @y1 c1 @y3 2 @y1 2 b1 @y2   2 @ r b b @ W 2 3 : ðz3  c2 ey3 ÞW  þ @y2 2 b1 c1 @y3



ð9Þ

According to Liu’s analysis [20], if an equation can be written in the form

    @W @W þ L2 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ H2 ðy2 ÞW þ K 2 ðy2 Þ 0 ¼ L1 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ H1 ðy1 ÞW þ K 1 ðy1 Þ @y1 @y2   @W þ L3 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ H3 ðy3 ÞW þ K 3 ðy3 Þ ; @y3

ð10Þ

where L1 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ; L2 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ and L3 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ are partial differential operators, then a unique solution of W can be gotten by solving

H1 ðy1 ÞW þ K 1 ðy1 Þ

@W @W @W ¼ 0; H2 ðy2 ÞW þ K 2 ðy2 Þ ¼ 0; H3 ðy3 ÞW þ K 3 ðy3 Þ ¼ 0: @y1 @y2 @y3

That is to say,

 Z

Wðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ ¼ m exp 

y1 0

  Z y2   Z y3  H1 ðsÞ H2 ðsÞ H3 ðsÞ ds exp  ds exp  ds ; K 1 ðsÞ K 2 ðsÞ K 3 ðsÞ 0 0

where m is the normalization factor satisfying

Z

þ1

1

Z

þ1

1

Z

þ1

Wðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þdy1 dy2 dy3 ¼ 1:

1

Clearly, Eq. (9) has the form of (10) with

L1 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ ¼

@ b2 @  ; @y1 b1 @y2

L2 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ ¼

@ b3 @  ; @y1 c1 @y3

H1 ðy1 Þ ¼ z1  b1 ey1 ; H2 ðy2 Þ ¼ z2  c1 ey2 ; H3 ðy3 Þ ¼ z3  c2 ey3 ; K 1 ðy1 Þ ¼ 

r2 2

; K 2 ðy2 Þ ¼ 

r2 b 2 2 b1

; K 3 ðy3 Þ ¼ 

r2 b 2 b 3 2 b1 c 1

:

L3 ðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ ¼

@ ; @y2

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Therefore the solution of Eq. (9) is

"Z # "Z #  y2 y3 z1  b 1 e s z2  c1 es z3  c 2 e s exp exp ds ds ds r2 b2 r 2 b2 b3 r2 =2 0 0 0 2 b1 2 b1 c 1       2 2b1 2b1 c1 y1 y2 ðz3 y3  c2 ey3 þ c2 Þ ¼ m exp 2 ðz1 y1  b1 e þ b1 Þ exp 2 ðz2 y2  c1 e þ c1 Þ  exp 2 r r b2 r b2 b3       2b1 z2 2b1 c1 z3 2z1 2b1 y1 2b c 2b1 c1 c2 y3 1 1 ðe  1Þ ðey3 Þ r2 b2 b3 : ¼ m exp  2 ðe  1Þ ðey1 Þ r2 exp  2 ðey2  1Þ ðey2 Þ r2 b2  exp  2 r r b2 r b2 b3

Wðy1 ; y2 ; y3 Þ ¼ m exp

Z

y1

Note that x1 ¼ ey1 ; x2 ¼ ey2 ; x3 ¼ ey3 , hence the joint steady state probability function of ðx1 ; x2 ; x3 Þ is



Uðx1 ; x2 ; x3 Þ ¼ m exp 

     2b1 z2 2b1 c1 z3 2z1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 y3 ðey1  1Þ ðey1 Þ r2  exp  2 ðey2  1Þ ðey2 Þ r2 b2  exp  2 ðe  1Þ ðey3 Þ r2 b2 b3 r b2 r b2 b3

2b1

r2

1 x1 x2 x3   2z1   2b1 z2 1   2b1 c1 z3 1 1 2b1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 r2 b r2 b b ¼ m exp  2 ðx1  1Þ x1r2  exp  2 ðx2  1Þ x2 2  exp  2 ðx3  1Þ x3 2 3 ; r r b2 r b2 b3 

R þ1 R þ1 R þ1 where m is determined by the following integral 0 Uðx1 ; x2 ; x3 Þdx1 dx2 dx3 ¼ 1. By the theory of improper integral, 0 0 R þ1 R þ1 R þ1 if (4) holds, that is z3 < 0, then the density of x3 will tend to 0. Else if (5) holds, then 0 Wðx1 ; x2 ; x3 Þdx1 dx2 dx3 is 0 0 convergent and (Z )1   2z1   2b1 z2 1   2b1 c1 z3 1 Z þ1 Z þ1 þ1 1 2b1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 r2 b r2 b b m¼ exp  2 ðx1  1Þ x1r2 dx1  exp  2 ðx2  1Þ x2 2 dx2  exp  2 ðx3  1Þ x3 2 3 dx3 r r b2 r b2 b3 0 0 0 (  Z þ1   2z1   2b1 z2 1 Z þ1 1 2b1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 2b1 2b1 c1 r2 b ¼ exp þ þ exp  2 x1 x1r2 dx1  exp  2 x2 x2 2 dx2 r 2 r 2 b2 r 2 b2 b3 0 r r b2 0 )1   2b1 c1 z3 1 Z þ1 2b1 c1 c2 r2 b b exp  2 x3 x3 2 3 dx3 :  r b2 b3 0 This completes the proof.

h

3. Optimal harvesting policy Now we are in the position to give our main result. Theorem 1. For model (3),

(I) If a1  0:5r2  c1ba3 3  bb1 a2 2 < h, then limt!þ1 x3 ðtÞ ¼ 0; (II) Suppose that a1  0:5r  (a) If 2

c1 a3 b3



b1 a2 b2

a:s.

> h.

  c1 a3 b1 a2  0:5 a1  0:5r2  < 0; b3 b2 then the optimal harvesting policy does not exist. (b) If

  c1 a3 b1 a2  0:5 a1  0:5r2  > 0; b3 b2 

then the optimal harvesting effort h is

  c1 a3  : h ¼ 0:5 a1  0:5r2  b3 Meanwhile, the maximum of ESY is 2

Y ¼

ða1  0:5r2  c1 a3 =b3 Þ : 4b1

ð11Þ

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Proof. By Lemma 2, we need only to prove (II). The expectation of sustainable yield is

YðhÞ ¼ lim Eðhx1 ðtÞÞ ¼ t!þ1

Z

þ1

hx1 U1 ðx1 Þdx1 ;

0

where

U1 ðx1 Þ ¼

Z

þ1

Z

0

þ1

Uðx1 ; x2 ; x3 Þdx2 dx3 :

0

It follows from (6) and (7) that



  2b1 z2 1   2b1 c1 z3 1 Z þ1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 r2 b2 r2 b b x x3 2 3 dx3 exp  ðx  1Þ dx  exp  ðx  1Þ 2 2 3 2 r2 r2 b2 r2 b 2 b 3 0 0 (  Z þ1   2z1   2b1 z2 1 Z þ1 1 2b1 2b1 c1 2b1 c1 c2 2b1 2b1 c1 r2 b ¼ exp þ 2 þ 2 exp  2 x1 x1r2 dx1  exp  2 x2 x2 2 dx2 2 r r b2 r b2 b3 0 r r b2 0 )1   2b1 c1 z3 1   2z1   2b1 z2 1 Z þ1 Z þ1 1 2b1 c1 c2 2b1 2b1 c1 r2 b b r2 b exp  2 x3 x3 2 3 dx3  exp  2 ðx1  1Þ x1r2  exp  2 ðx2  1Þ x2 2 dx2  r b2 b3 r r b2 0 0 h i 2z1 1 2b1   2b1 c1 z3 1 Z þ1 exp  x x1r2 1 2 2b1 c1 c2 r r2 b b  exp  2 ðx3  1Þ x3 2 3 dx3 ¼ : h i 2z1 1 R þ1 r b2 b3 0 2b1 r2 exp  x dx x 1 1 1 0 r2

U1 ðx1 Þ ¼ mexp 

2b1

 2z1 Z 1 ðx1  1Þ x1r2 

þ1

Consequently

h i 2z1 2z1 R þ1 r2 1 2z exp  2b hr2 0 ev v r2 dv hr2 Cð r21 þ 1Þ hr2 2z1 hz1 r2 x1 x1 dx1 ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ 2z1 h i 2z1 1 R 2b1 þ1 v r2 1 2b1 Cð2z21 Þ 2b1 r2 b1 r2 1 r e v dv exp  2b dx1 0 r2 x1 x1

R þ1 YðhÞ ¼ h

0

R þ1 0

¼

hða1  0:5r2  h  c1 a3 =b3 Þ : b1 



where CðÞ is the Gamma function. Note that YðhÞ has a unique extreme value at h ¼ 0:5ða1  0:5r2  c1 a3 =b3 Þ. Thus if h obeys 

z3 jh¼h ¼ b2 ða1  0:5r2  h  c1 a3 =b3 Þ=b1  a2 > 0; 

i.e. 0:5b2 ða1  0:5r2  c1 a3 =b3 Þ=b1  a2 > 0, then the optimal harvesting effort is h and the maximum of expectation of sustainable yield is 

Y ¼

2



h ða1  0:5r2  h  c1 a3 =b3 Þ ða1  0:5r2  c1 a3 =b3 Þ ¼ : b1 4b1 

If 0:5b2 ða1  0:5r2  c1 a3 =b3 Þ=b1  a2 < 0, i.e. z3 jh¼h < 0, then the optimal harvesting effort h will make x3 extinct and thus the optimal harvesting policy does not exist. h Remark 1. Consider the following stochastic logistic population model:

dxðtÞ ¼ xðtÞða  h  bxðtÞÞdt þ rxdBðtÞ: 

By Theorem 1, the optimal harvesting policy exists if and only if h < a  0:5r2 , the harvest effort is h ¼ 0:5ða  0:5r2 Þ and 2 Þ2

r the maximum of ESY is Y  ¼ ða0:5 . These results coincide with the classical results obtained by Beddington and May [10] 4b in Science.

Remark 2. In this note, we suppose that only the top prey is subjected to exploitation. It is interesting to investigate the optimal harvesting of the following model:

8 > < dx1 ðtÞ ¼ x1 ðtÞða1  h1  b1 x1 ðtÞ  c1 x2 ðtÞÞdt þ r1 x1 dBðtÞ; dx2 ðtÞ ¼ x2 ðtÞða2  h2 þ b2 x1 ðtÞ  c2 x3 ðtÞÞdt þ r2 x2 dBðtÞ; > : dx3 ðtÞ ¼ x3 ðtÞða3  h3 þ b3 x2 ðtÞÞdt þ r3 x3 dBðtÞ;

ð12Þ

where hi is the harvesting effort of xi ; i ¼ 1; 2; 3. In fact, we have also attempted to investigate this question. Unfortunately, we cannot obtain the explicit solution of the Fokker–Planck equation of (12) now. It is also interesting to investigate the optimal harvesting of other stochastic models.

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Acknowledgments The authors thank the editor and reviewers for their valuable comments. The authors also thank the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11301207, 11171081, 11271364, 11301112), Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Nos. BK2011407 and BK20130411), Natural Science Research Project of Ordinary Universities in Jiangsu Province (No. 13KJB110002). References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22]

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