- Email: [email protected]
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
HABI¹A¹ IN¹¸. Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 303—317, 1999 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0197—3975/99 $ — see front matter
PII: S0197-3975(98)00056-3
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain MUSTAPHA BEN HAMOUCHE Al Ain ¹own Planning Department, ºnited Arab Emirates
ABSTRACT Urbanization in the Gulf countries is strongly shaped by the oil-based economy and is characterized by a primate distribution. The United Arab Emirates shows an exception to this trend to some extent due to the federal political system on the one hand and the ‘‘sedentarization’’ policy for Bedouin population in their homeland on the other. Urban development in the Al Ain region presents an example of such a balanced distribution. However, the fast growth of Al Ain city generated by planning practices that have been developed in an economy of abundance and as a result of a generous welfare policy, could lead the region to rejoin the Gulf model of primacy. Thus, a spatial strategy is required to redress the situation. 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: primacy; urban growth; spatial strategy; Gulf cities
INTRODUCTION One of the major problems that face planners and managers in the developing countries is the fast growth of their urban population (Choguill, 1994, p. 936; Rakodi and Devas, 1993, p. 1; Schwab, 1992, p. 81). This problem is further complicated as most of this growth is concentrated in a very few cities, creating a spatial imbalance in the distribution of human settlements within the national territory. Daily life within these cities is often degrading due to the overuse of existing structures and/or lack of amenities, overcrowding and pollution. This imbalance is best known as primacy and is defined as the growth of one large city at the expense of other cities. On comparing settlement patterns in different countries it has been concluded that primacy is one of the characteristics of urbanization in less developed countries. Among explanations put forth to explain this phenomena, researchers have suggested the lasting impact of colonial exploitation (El Shakhs and Obudho, 1974), political instability (Brennan and Richardson, 1986), inefficient patterns of state intervention in the economy (World Bank, 1982) and intermittent droughts and/or natural catastrophes (Glantz and Katz, 1985). In more extrapolated models, Richardson (1972) considers that primacy generally appears in countries that have a short history of urbanization and have simple economic and
Correspondence to: Al Ain Town Planning Department, P.O. Box 1339, Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab Emirates.
303
304
M. B. Hamouche
political structures. Alperovich (1993) considers that populations are less evenly distributed in countries where government involvement in the economy is extensive. Regarding measurement of primacy, rank-size theory has been the mostly used model which permits the simple description of a settlement distribution. It consists of considering the population size of the city in relation to its rank within the settlement pattern. Thus, a city which has a rank ‘‘n’’ should ideally have its size 1/n of the biggest city. In its simpler terms, the ideal rank-size distribution of human settlements is that in which different levels of cities, mainly small, medium and big cities, co-exist in one territory. Despite the limited validity of such a theory to provide a universal understanding of urban distribution, it provides a general model which permits the simple description of a settlement pattern (Guerin-Pace, 1995, p. 553; Alperovich, 1993, p. 1592). Like in many other less developed countries, primacy dominates the distribution of cities and settlements in the Gulf countries, most of which have witnessed an accelerated urbanization during the last few decades (Table 1). Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest country of the Gulf and the oldest oil-producing state is a case in point. There a few cities hold most of the population of their regions. For example, the capital city of Riyadh has 80% of the total population of its region that comprises 2400 human settlements (Abdel Rahman et al., 1995; Abdullah, 1982). It is also 18 times larger than the second city in its region (Abdel Rahman, 1995). Other Gulf states, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain show the extreme forms of primacy by being one state, one capital and one city in spite of the efforts made for decentralization and redistribution of the population (Roberts, 1979; Pereira, 1977; Buchanan and Partners, 1983). Despite the absence of extensive studies on urbanization in the Gulf countries, some explanations mentioned above show relevance to primacy in this region. The few shared factors shaping the socio-economic and political life of these countries, such as the heavy involvement of governments in welfare policy, the oil-based economy and the central administrative system, could be considered causes of primacy. Compared to other Gulf countries, the city system in the United Arab Emirates shows some exceptions due to some specific factors (Figs. 1 and 2). The UAE was established in 1971 as a federal union of seven Emirates, each of which has its own capital. Despite the dependency on oil the government adopted huge and long-term programs to encourage agriculture and diversify non-oil exports which had, according to Middle East Monitor, reached 43% of total exports in 1994. On the socio-spatial level agricultural development was also a means to settle local population, mostly Bedouins, in their territories and achieve social justice in the distribution of oil income among citizens. Al Ain is the eastern region of Abu Dhabi Emirate and is a striking example of such a policy. The Regional Development strategy applied during the last 30 years has succeeded in distributing the population over the territory of the Emirate. Accordingly, Al Ain city was developed as an inland urban pole in contrast to the
Table 1. Urbanization trends in the Gulf region
Bahrain Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia U.A.E.
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
63.8 59.1 62.9 15.9 25.0
82.3 72.3 72.4 29.7 40.0
78.7 77.8 79.9 48.7 57.2
80.5 90.2 85.6 66.8 71.5
83.0 95.9 89.9 77.3 81.0
85.4 97.7 92.6 81.8 86.2
87.6 98.2 94.1 84.7 88.8
Source: World urbanization prospects. 1993 United Nations NY.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
305
Fig. 1. The location of Al Alin region. Source: Al Ain TPD.
other cities of the country which are mostly located on the Arabian Gulf coast. With respect to the rank-size theory, Al Ain is the second city in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and has a population half of that of the capital Abu Dhabi city, and thus responds to the ideal distribution model. Within the region, the total population of 324,000 is, according to the national census of 1995, distributed as 2/3 in Al Ain city and 1/3 in the rural areas of around 20 settlements. The effort of the Government to stabilize the rural population during the last 30 years has been successful, as is shown in the present stability in the urbanization trend (Fig. 3). However, will this stability, maintained by a welfare policy and the availability of oil resources, prevail on the general urbanization trend in the Gulf countries? In other words, is the regional balance of Al Ain sustainable? The hypothesis of this study is that new economic, social and physical measures are required on the strategic level at this stage of development. Otherwise Al Ain will lose its balanced distribution and will rejoin, in the long run, the Gulf model of urbanization. Secondly, it is believed that actions are available locally to restrain or at least to moderate such a development. Specifically, a shifting from urban priorities in favor of its surrounding settlements is suggested. One of the important
306
M. B. Hamouche
Fig. 2. Rank-size theory applied to UAE cities. Source: National Report of UAE to U.N. on Human settlements (December 1995).
Fig. 3. Urbanization trend in Al Ain Region. Source: (National Censuses 1975, 1980 & 1995) Ministery of planning. (Master Plan Document, vol. 1).
aspects of this strategy which is within the reach of the Municipality and Town Planning Department is, therefore, the establishment of a spatial strategy for the city of Al Ain and its region.
URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN AL AIN Historically speaking, human settlements in the Al Ain region were located on the major trade routes crossing the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Desert. These settlements were rest areas for merchants and tribes traveling to and from Persia and India. Shallow lenses of sweet water trapped in the sand allowed the local Bedouin population to settle around water points and develop small oases. Coupled with the strategic location at the cross-roads, the site of Al Ain city was the most fortunate area of the region because of its proximity to the Oman mountains. Due to some geomorphologic conditions, rain water drained to the plain of Al Ain and transformed it to a fertile land under which lies a big water reservoir. The many scattered settlements grew to become the main districts of the
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
307
city, sustained by the oases and the irrigation system that was introduced by Persians centuries ago. Besides the seasonal migration of herdsmen, local tribes depended also in their daily life on the crops of these oases. A dramatic change took place in the region after the successful exploitation of oil in 1967. A regional development policy which had as a main aim to stabilize the Bedouin population and to distribute equitably the incomes of oil among citizens was adopted. Actions were consequently taken to reinforce agriculture within the existing settlements and improve daily conditions of rural populations. Accordingly, existing settlements witnessed an accelerated physical development as they hosted huge programs of public housing, facilities and public utility services. A regional grid of a transportation system was developed that related them to each other and to the other cities of the Emirates. In further strengthening the regional development and encouraging decentralization, Al Ain region was subdivided into administrative zones each of which had its own sub-municipality. Al Ain city, the main human settlement, has enormously benefited from the new situation. Being the home village of the ruling family, it profited from the special care of President Sheik Zayed Bin Sultan who intended to develop it as a ‘‘modern garden city blooming on the edge of the desert’’. Beyond this poetic slogan, Al Ain was considered in the context of the regional economy as a market city that would help its satellite-like villages to prosper. In political and administrative terms, it became the capital of the Eastern region of Abu Dhabi Emirate. Consequently, the city has undergone unprecedented urban growth which quadrupled its size within the last 30 years. It passed from 50 km in 1976 to 98 km in 1985. At present the official administrative boundaries of the urban area includes 226 km. ¹he pattern of spatial growth Apart from the arid climate and the sand dunes, the site of Al Ain does not present any physical constraints for urban development. Urban development is, however, strongly shaped by the presence of the two main valleys, Wadi Al Ain and Wadi Tawia, and the linear form of Hafeet mountain, and the political border with the state of Oman. Earlier Al Ain city was characterized by empty spaces separating the different settlements, and in the absence of a planning strategy, urban development proceeded in a leap frog-like fashion that was generated by a succession of projects financially approved by Abu Dhabi city. In 1973, a Town Planning Department (TPD) was created to take charge of the development of Al Ain city and the surrounding rural settlements. Despite the establishment of a Preliminary Master Plan, the development of Al Ain from 1973 to 1985 has continued in the same pattern as before. Major investment programs were initiated in the fields of housing, education, health, leisure and utilities that bridged the gaps between former settlements. In 1985, a Comprehensive Master Plan for Al Ain city and its Region was established and adopted as a base document for the development of the city and its region from 1986 to 2000 (Fig. 4). However, the development of Al Ain for various reasons was governed by the daily practices of the TPD. The Master Plan was thus, turned into a ‘‘Servant Plan’’ that had no legal power and no major effect on the urban development. One reason for such obsolescence was the pace of urban growth that surpassed the projections of the Master Plan. On the regional level, the city is taking a ‘‘T’’ form as a consequence of its development along three directions. The two main axes relating the city of Al Ain to Abu Dhabi and Dubai cities constitute the spines of urban growth. Two other axes which act to a lesser degree relate the city to the rural settlements located to the south. A grid system of roads linking these axes insures accessibility to sectors between the axes and thus, reduces the length of the tentacles of the star-like form.
308
M. B. Hamouche
Fig. 4. Master plan for Al Ain Region (Year 2000). Source: Master Plan Document (Al Ain TPD).
The historical background of Al Ain city is also evident in its urban growth pattern through the polycentric form of the city. Early settlements, such as Al Jimi, Hili, Al Mutaredh and Al Towyya, which were in the past scattered over the site were adopted as districts in the administrative subdivision of the urban territory. ºrban planning as a factor in urban growth Urban growth in less developed countries is generally synonymous with overurbanization and thus is considered as an undesirable process that could not be controlled (Devas and Rakodi, 1993). However, in the case of the Gulf countries, and particularly in UAE, urbanization which has accompanied economic prosperity is regarded as a positive process that generates development and insures social equity. Cities have therefore been considered as signs of success and progress. Accordingly, the governments have always opted for urban growth and enhanced local institutions to achieve this goal. Despite some adverse effects that occurred in some earlier Gulf cities, such as the shortage of water, congestion, and lack of
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
309
facilities, this trend is still encouraged (Hathloul and Edadan, 1995; Al-Ibrahim, 1979). Urban planning is thus used as a tool for promoting urban growth rather than for controlling and limiting expansion. One of the major changes that occurred during the recent decades was the establishment of a central system of administration and the shift in control of space from the traditional system to the modern one. Human settlements that used to be controlled by tribes on the basis of a social hierarchy and a territorial subdivision of the desert, are now under the supervision of the Municipality. Modern tools in planning and urban administration, such as building permits and zoning, are used to manage and control these settlements. In the case of Al Ain, a Computer Data Management System (CDMS) has been installed in order to ease the task for planners and the administrators in TPD and the Municipality. Other aspects of urban planning and management system in Al Ain city which promote growth are described below. ¹he grid road pattern and the transportation system. Historically, the grid pattern of roads was first introduced to Gulf cities in Saudi Arabia in 1947 (Hathloul, 1996; Chaline, 1990) with the development of housing for oil company personnel. It was then generalized through Master Plans made by foreign experts, such as Shankland Cox, Buchanan, and Doxiadis (Chaline, 1990). This system was believed to be the magic solution to traffic congestion. It was not only applied to new cities and their extensions but to old cities as well. Traditional urban nuclei in Kuwait and Jeddah were therefore crisscrossed by straight arteries regardless of their organic spatial organizations (Costello, 1977). The application of the grid system on Al Ain was ideal due to its flat site and dispersed development. The grid pattern was first laid out to link the scattered settlements and then extended along the two major axes linking Al Ain with Abu Dhabi and Dubai successively. As an ‘‘advanced’’ preventive measure to the problem of congestion, main roads were designed to dual three lane carriageway standard, irrespective of the expected traffic flow or their function. In addition, most junctions were designed as roundabouts that sometimes reach 150 m in radius. Consequently, traffic volume compared to road network capacity is, as low as 30%. In other words, it seems that the network was designed to solve the problems of the future city of Al Ain but not necessarily that of the present. Besides the expansion in land use that had been generated by this system, another consequence is the public’s dependence on the car. People are often confronted, for example, with the need to cross the road by car as there are a few crossing facilities. Arteries have an average width of 72 m which are often embellished by uninterrupted fences and greenery, discouraging foot traffic. On the residential level, secondary and tertiary roads range between 17 and 32 m in width and each house is provided with open parking areas outside its external wall along with the garage within the courtyard. The transportation system is based on private cars and taxis. According to statistics of the local Police Department, car ownership in Al Ain region is 1.80 cars per household for citizens and 1.12 for non citizens. Whereas taxis, typically represent 25—30% of the total traffic flows on the town roads while the bus system is still in its experimental stage. ¸and use and zoning system. One of the consequences of the gridiron system of roads is the equal accessibility of urban areas. Urban activities can therefore be located anywhere in the city and do not necessarily have to compete for land in the city center. The zoning system was developed to prevent chaotic distribution of facilities all over the urban area (Chung, 1994).
310
M. B. Hamouche
Al Ain seems to have benefited from previous experience in the Gulf cities. Zones were defined with scrutiny for the main activities such as housing, industry, education, health, administration and leisure. Large blocks within the grid were reserved for such activities in the form of ad hoc zones. One of the major consequences of the allocation of urban activities in distinct zones is the reservation of land for future development. Apart from the industrial zone which has been taking shape since the early stage of development, most of the other zones have been awaiting their development for over a decade. This is the case of the Civic Center and some residential areas. Other activities, such as the hospital, occupy their sites in a chaotic way as the land is beyond their requirements. The University is another case where the zoning system was abandoned for reasons of sexual segregation and management. One impact of the zoning system is the pendulum-like effect of traffic flow due to the multiplication of trips between the three mini-poles within the city; the industrial zone, the civic area, and the old city-center called suq. Despite the low volume of traffic compared to the road capacity, axes relating these three mini poles often witness congestion in peak hours. Another consequence of the zoning concept is the need for parking spaces in each zone and for each public building. According to the Master Plan and transportation and traffic System Report, there were in 1985 over 5500 official public parking spaces all on the ground level in the city center and a further 850 on unsurfaced vacant land. Only 65% of this number is used at any time of the day. In addition, the parking area reserved for the Municipality occupies 30,000 m for a capacity of 660 places. The building itself occupies an area less than one-third the size of its lot. As official working time is limited to morning (from 7.30 to 1.30 p.m.) and the building is located in a remote area, such parking areas are left unused most of the day and on weekends. Institutional system and Master Plan. Among shortages of the TPD is the lack of power within a structure of rival departments and the absence of a legal framework which strengthens its actions. Figure 5 shows that the TPD is horizontally and vertically overwhelmed by other structures. Despite the coordination that exists between different bodies of the local authorities, many departments act autonomously and thus interfere with the prerogatives of the TPD. Each department has its own list of annual projects that is discussed and approved by the Project Committee of Abu Dhabi Emirate. However, even projects that do not necessarily reflect the objectives of the Master Plan are approved if they are successfully argued within the committee.
Fig. 5. TPD within Abu Dhabi Department Structure. Source: Master Plan Document (Al Ain TPD).
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
311
As a result of the weak status of the Master Plan and the rival administrative context of the TPD, Al Ain city has become a laboratory for uncoordinated projects, both public or private. The city has turned into a cluster of big buildings that dominate its urban structure, such as the airport, the university, the zoo and the mushrooming private super-markets. In some cases approval of new projects is done at the expense of the upgrading of existing areas within the city. Many new projects including those for tourists and leisure complexes, have been submitted for approval whereas old, low-income housing areas are still waiting their turn. In other words, such an approach has in some ways masked superficially major urban problems of the city and diverted local resources from basic services towards prestige projects. In addition, it creates new burdens for the Municipality as it increases maintenance and management tasks. ¸and property and urban growth. Land in Abu Dhabi Emirate is legally held by the Ruler who allots it, free of charge, to citizens and approves its public development. Its use is principally determined according to social needs of local population and public utilities. It is developed without consideration of market mechanisms and without considering its potential economic value and use. The effects of such a process can be easily seen in the allotment policy to meet individual demands. In 1995, nearly 500 building licenses were delivered from the Municipality to citizens owning private house plots. However, an important number of these plots were left undeveloped for years as there was no follow up from the local authorities. Concerning public requirements, sites for public facilities, in the absence of any administrative constraints or competition from private companies, are defined according to the availability of space within the city as soon as the project is financially approved. Too often, sites that present minimum constraints in terms of demolition and compulsory purchase are the first selected for the new projects. In other cases, new sites located out at the urban edge are developed which further extend the city. Housing policy, regulations and standards. Housing in Al Ain reflects the generous grants and loans of the government to citizens for home purchase. This is a part of the public delivery system of huge programs to cope with the high and ever increasing housing demand that have been implemented since the 1970s. Investment housing is another system of housing policy which aims at absorbing the demands of expatriate population. Units are built by private investors with a system of loans from public funds and then rented to companies, individuals and government employees. The natural growth of the non-citizen population and the continuous import of a foreign workforce encourage more investments in the housing sector and thus further extend the city. Despite the actual surplus of 3000 units (which is also partly due to unaffordable rents), the TPD is still issuing building permits for such projects. Regarding building regulations and standards, TPD does not have a complete development policy nor urban regulation documents. However, the few existing texts dealing with issues such as building setbacks, location within the plots, height limits and dimensions of internal spaces, reflect perfectly the pro-growth urban policy. In residential areas, for example, plot sizes range between 60;60 m and 90;90 m in accordance with large family size and future expansion possibilities. On the block level, plots are generally organized in a succession of two back-toback rows of plots separated from each other with alleys of 3 m that are intended to be used for maintenance and utility lines. Besides the restriction of heights to a maximum of two stories for housing, the construction covers a very meager part of the plot which does not, on average,
312
M. B. Hamouche
exceed 20%. The construction, for visual reasons and due to adoption of the villa type of house, is most often located at the center of the plot. Regarding the geometry of land subdivision, plots are recommended by higher authorities to be square as this pure form eases dimensioning and insures social equity among beneficiaries. Citizens also desire this form rather than irregular ones as it fits better the villa house type which allows openings on the four sides of the construction. Consequently, irregular pieces of land which result from subdivision are frequently left as unused residues. ºrban planning, architecture and design. In contrast to the comprehensive and long-term vision of the Master Plan document, planning practices in Al Ain TPD are dominated by a pro-design approach and exhibitionist architecture. Besides the private projects which are submitted by the consultants to the TPD for building permits, the department is also in charge of a number of urban projects that are annually approved by the Project Committee in Abu Dhabi. Like other departments, proposals are made by the TPD each year for financial support. Once registered, they are submitted in the form of a competition to which international consultants are invited to participate. Depending on the type of the project, new sites are often selected with regard to the degree of exposure and visual potentialities they offer. Architects accordingly show off all their talents and make use of the latest design techniques to exploit the site. Regardless of the land value and economic potentialities of the site, or whether it is in the city center or in the periphery, such aesthetic values are often accented by a green belt and parking areas that surrounds the new projects and allow a convenient distance for visual admiration. This villa-like typology is further stressed by the gridiron pattern of streets that subdivide land into big parcels in which buildings occupy the center. In response to the Islamic Arabic style that is officially recommended by the TPD, projects are treated with traditional elements that are added to the facades such as the arcades, the domes, the claustra and arabesques. However, essential values attached to such elements, such as responsiveness to climate, respect of privacy and rational use of space, are most often neglected. Incongruities with local conditions are overcome with powerful systems of air conditioning, irrigation and an armada of staff for maintenance and landscaping. Sizable projects are sometimes proposed without studying their impact on the city and the region. Three projects located at the edge of the city have been recently approved which provide examples. The first is the new road that will link the airport to the eastern ‘‘gate’’ of the city located about 16 km away in an area known as al Oha. The location of the road beyond the actual natural boundary of the city, known as Wadi Tawia Valley, constitutes a new boundary which will add an area of nearly 23 km to the city that will inevitably pull the urban development to the north. The second project is that of the new laborers’ city which is supposedly located on the peripheral truck road. Located about 10 km south of the city center, the city will form a new satellite separated from the existing urban edge by an important undeveloped piece of land. As the new city is intended to be a residential area for low-income laborers, it will become a dormitory city that will depend on both the city center and the industrial area. In the long run, the pendulum-like traffic flow that will be generated from daily trips will also be another factor extending sprawl to the south. On the eastern side, 10 years ago Al Ain city was separated from the two villages of Sulaymat and Yahar located along Abu Dhabi road. Many new low cost housing areas have recently been developed on the interstitial spaces. Consequently, this led to the conurbation of the city with the existing villages and the airport.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
313
THE PARADOX OF DEVELOPMENT If the government of Abu Dhabi has been successful during the last 30 years in creating a new urban center that has lessened the distortion between urban and rural areas, the present growth rate of Al Ain city threatens the benefits of this policy. The original inherited settlement pattern of the Bedouin tribes and tradesmen in the big desert, the availability of water and the traditional economy of frugality, is presently threatened by the new socio-economic demands. The ever increasing and high consumption rate of water due to the mechanization of irrigation and urban development has significantly affected the water balance in the region. The shortage of water coupled with the increasing salinity is at present compensated by the provision of desalinated water which is piped from the coast. However, the import of desalinated water to the rural areas for irrigation is obviously not practical. Coupled with the costly fertilization (due to the sandy soil and the harsh climate) and the import of foreign workforce, all these factors skyrocket the price of the crops beyond the actual market prices of goods which are at present imported from neighboring countries and thus force the local population to relinquish agriculture. In contrast to the monobasic and declining economy of rural settlements, Al Ain city is witnessing diversity and expansion in its employment market. Despite the dependency on oil and government sectors, which accounts for 37% of the total labor workforce, many sectors other than agriculture are being developed such as higher education, health, finance, trade and tourism. It is obvious that the continuous growth of Al Ain will establish a pull—push situation in the region. Will the distributive socio-economic policy on which the regional structure relies be able to maintain the spatial balance in the region? Two scenarios can be envisaged for the development of the settlement pattern in the region. In the first case, Al Ain city would continue to grow at the same pace at the expense of the remote rural settlements and would cause their gradual decline and their passing out of existence. This can be projected from the continuing extension of the urban envelope. Despite the absence of any formal approval for the new boundaries, as the Master Plan is still under review, a new map for ‘‘Greater’’ Al Ain has been prepared by the Computer Data Management System section which shows the administrative subdivision of the urban territory and the newly added districts. Accordingly, the city covers a total area of 500 km, including the new areas located beyond the former urban envelope. Considering the 10% Al Ain city growth rate during the last 30 years, the new areas will provide the city with sufficient space for the development during the next 10 years. In fact, many satellite-like villages around the city, such as Sulaymat, Yahar, and Al-Oha, have already been swallowed by the sprawling of the city and have thus turned into outskirt districts. This scenario of suburbanization is taking place in most Gulf cities and other less developed countries as a reflexion of the American model of residential enclaves with low-density, single-family houses, built in automobileaccessed areas (Leaf, 1994). In the second scenario, the remote villages will continue to survive due to their location within a radius of 150 km around the city. According to some theories, such a ‘‘functional distance’’ would enable the inhabitants to maintain residences in the small centers and also commute daily to places of employment, shopping, leisure and education in the central city (Northam, 1979, p. 134; Hagget, 1975, p. 336). Optimistically, the growth of Al Ain in this case will have a spread effect (Gaile, 1992, p. 10) on its region, and contribute in its development as a growth pole. Already, most of the young generation and the literate in the rural settlements are actually employed in the cities and travel daily to and from their places of work. One of the implications of this scenario is the turning of the villages into dormitories and/or secondary residences for holidays and week ends.
314
M. B. Hamouche
A SPATIAL STRATEGY FOR THE REGION OF AL AIN According to either scenario there seems to be a need for a spatial strategy that can redress the current trend of growth and help maintain the regional balance between Al Ain city and its region. It is remarkable that at this stage, Al Ain city has achieved a medium size that gives it the opportunity to compete on equal terms with the other cities of the UAE. It is, therefore, an opportune moment to review the pro-growth policy of Al Ain city before the region enters a problematic stage of spatial development. Accordingly, local authorities should restrain the pull of Al Ain city by creating mechanisms that slow down its development in favor of the other settlements. This could be achieved in spatial terms through the reviewing of the urban policy on two levels: Al Ain city and its region. On the first level, local authorities should be concerned with maintaining public infrastructure, improving public transportation system, levying taxes on land and establishing land market mechanisms. One of the hard tasks in this new policy is to slow down the extension of Al Ain city by redefining its urban edges by improving the absorptive capacity that optimizes the existing land use. The second level of this strategy consists of revitalizing the rural settlements in accordance with the ‘‘sedentarization’’ policy of Bedouin population and the dispersion of urban development (Fig. 6). Undoubtedly, the urbanization in the UAE is an irreversible phenomenon that will reshape radically its socio-economic and physical structure due to the economic potential of the country. One development policy that has been widely applied for a long time in different countries is the creation of ‘‘key settlements’’ and ‘‘growth poles’’ that attract public and private investments away from primate cities (Powe and Whitby, 1994; Gaile, 1992; Harthshorn, 1992; Currie, 1976). Despite the present criticism of heavy public involvement in urban policies (Devas and Rakodi, 1993), UAE has followed this policy successfully. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect success in applying this policy to other villages which would constitute new urban centers in their sub-regions. Selection of settlements for this policy should be based on relevant criteria such as economic development potential, inter-regional equity and locational and spatial consistency (Gaile, 1992; Powe and Whitby, 1994). At the social level, this policy could soften the negative impacts on the local population of the transition from the semi-Bedouin life to ‘‘full’’ urbanization. In addition to the re-allocation of resources to the depressed sub-regions the application of the growth pole policy to selected human settlements requires new mechanisms for economic development that will partially substitute for the declining agricultural economy. In contrast to the present exogenous model development that depends entirely on expatriate expertise, an inward-looking policy that insures sustainable development of these settlements should be gradually established. This could be achieved by encouraging the local population to develop their own skills through public—private partnerships (Ferguson, 1992) and to use their local knowledge (Choguill, 1994; Gaile, 1992; Enoh, 1990; Cinneide and Keane, 1990). CONCLUSION In contrast to the primate pattern that dominates the Gulf countries, UAE represents a dispersed urbanization that is generated by the federal political system and the regional development policy. Al Ain region is an example of such a policy in which the city passed from a mere cluster of scattered villages to a medium sized city. The other face of this experience is the stabilization of the Bedouin population in the former human settlements in the remote areas, their provision with basic facilities, and the support of agriculture.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
315
Fig. 6. Location of settlements in Al Ain Region. Source: Master Plan Document (Al Ain TPD).
However, the present urban development of Al Ain city, which is mainly applied via some pro-growth planning tools, threatens the regional balance if it continues at the same pace. The declining agriculture in the remote villages, coupled with the urban policy of prestige and diversification of employment in Al Ain city, will inevitably install a pull—push factor that will lead to primacy. A spatial strategy to maintain the regional balance is therefore required. It should be twofold. As Al Ain has achieved a medium size that enables it to stand on its own and to compete with other cities of the country, resources should be diverted to rural sub-regions. One of the important components of the new spatial strategy should be the control of Al Ain city expansion by defining its new urban envelope. Developing new urban poles in the same way as Al Ain city was developed is the second part of the required strategy. This would strengthen the spatial hierarchy in the region and thus, push away the specter of primacy. Acknowledgements—This paper is based on a report prepared by the author to the Town Planning Department of Al Ain. The report is intended to be a platform for discussion on the 1st Master Plan Review and updating. TPD has certain rights to this material. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TPD.
316
M. B. Hamouche
REFERENCES Abdel Rahman, et al. (1995) A national spatial strategy for Saudi Arabia. In: ºrban Development in Saudi Arabia, eds S. A. Hathloul and Edadan, pp 331—356, p 337. Sahan, Riyadh. Al-Hathloul, M. S. (1996) ¹he Arab Muslim city. Sahan, Riyadh. Al-Ibrahim, A. A. (1982) Regional and urban development in Saudi Arabia. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis University of Colorado, pp 228—287. Alperovich, G. (1993) An explanatory model of city-size distribution: evidence from cross-country data. ºrban Studies 30 (9), pp 1591—1601. Barrow, C. J. (1995) Sustainable development. ¹own Planning Review 17 (4), 369—386. Brennan, E. and Richardson, H. (1986) Urbanization and urban Policy in sub-Saharan Africa. African ºrban Quarterly 1, 20—42. Buchanan, C. and Partners (1983) Master Plan for Kuwait, Vol. 1, 2nd Review, Municipality of Kuwait. Chaline, C. (1990) ¸es villes du Monde Arabe. Masson, Paris. Chung, L. W. (1994) The Economics of land-use zoning. ¹own Planning Review 65 (1), 77—98. Costello, F. V. (1977) ºrbanization in the Middle East. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Currie, L. (1976) ¹iming the Megalopolis. Pergamon Press, Oxford. Choguill, C. L. (1994) Crisis, chaos, crunch? Planning for urban growth in the developing world. ºrban Studies 31 (6), 935—945. Cinneide, M. S. O. and Keane, M. J. (1990) Applying strategic planning to local economic development. ¹own Planning Review 61 (4), 475—485. Doan, P. L. (1995) Urban primacy and spatial development policy in African development plans. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 17 (3), 313—337. Devas, N. and Rakodi, C. (1993) The urban challenge. In: Managing Fast Growing Cities, eds. N. Devas and C. Rakodi, pp. 1—40. Longman, London. El-Shakhs, S. and Ubodho, R. (eds) (1974) ºrbanization, National Development, and Regional Planning in Africa. Praeger, New York. Enoh, C. O. E. (1990) Applying the objective possibility model to the development of rural areas in Third World countries. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 12 (2), 167—182. Ferguson, B. W. (1992) Inducing local growth. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 14 (3), 245—265. Gaile, G. L. (1992) Improving rural—urban linkages through small town market based development. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 14 (2), 131—148. Glantz, M. and Katz, R. (1985) Drought as a constraint in sub-Saharan Africa. Ambio 14, 334—339. Guerin, P. F. (1995) Rank-size distribution and the process of urban growth. ºrban Studies 32 (3), pp 551—562. Hagget, P. (1975) Geography; a Modern Synthesis. Harpe & Row, New York. Harthson, T. A. (1992) Interpreting the City. Wiley, New York. Leaf, M. (1994) The Suburbanization of Jakarta: a concurence of economics and ideology. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 16 (4), 341—356. Loftman, P. and Brendan, N. (1996) Opting for growth: prestige projects in three British Cities. ºrban Studies 33 (6), 991—1019. Middle East Monitor (1994). Ministry of Planning (1995) National Population Census, Abu Dhabi. Northam, R. M. (1975) ºrban Geography. Wiley, New York. Powe, N. and Whitby, M. (1994) Economies of settlement size in rural settlement planning. ¹own Planning Review 65 (4), 415—434. Pereira, W. and Associates (1997) ºmm Said ¸ong ¹erm Structure Plan. Qatar Planning Studies. Richardson, H. (1972) Optimity in city size, systems of cities and urban policy. Ekistics 34 (205), 393. Roberts, M. P. H. (1979) An ºrban Profile of the Middle East. Croom Helm, London. Schwab, W. A. (1992) ¹he Sociology of Cities. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Town Planning Department of Al Ain (1995) ¹he Master Plan for ¹he Region of Al Ain, Vol. 1. Town Planning Department of Al Ain (1986) ¹ransport and ¹raffic System Report. Al Ain TPD. World Bank (1982) Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank, Washington, DC.
NOTES This is especially the case of some African countries. On primacy in Africa see Doan 1995. The rank-size rule states that the size of a given city Pn can be predicted by knowing its population rank Rn among all cities in the area studied and the size of the largest city P1. Thus; Pn"P1/Rn. See Harthson (1992), Hagget (1975) and Northam (1975). Sustainable Development is defined as an ‘‘Interaction between self reliance, ecological stability and basic needs’’, see (Barrow, 1995). This definition will help us later in designing recommendations for a spatial strategy for Al Ain Region. Al Ain is an Arabic word meaning a fountain and a spring. The region of Al Ain has a total area of 11,000 km which is subdivided into seven sub-municipalities headed by the Main Municipality of Al Ain City.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
317
Al Ain has won the Second Prize of ‘‘Nations in Bloom’’ for small cities under 500,000 people in the international competition held in Madrid 1997 and organized by the International Federation of Parks and and Recreation Administration (IFPRA). This gives an approximate spatial growth rate of 10% which is among the highest in the world. It is also equivalent to that of Riyadh city (Saudi Arabia) during the economic boom period 1965—1975. World Urbanization Prospect United Nations, New York, 1993. See Firshbie (1995). The old system was based on the subdivision of the land among different tribes as regards the availability of water and grass. Natural land marks such as valleys and mountains were used for such a subdivision. Each tribe had also its administrative structure headed by a Sheikh. Town Planning Department (1986). ¹raffic System Report, p. 256. Statistics of Abu Dhabi Police Department (1995) and Population Census 1995, Ministry of Planning. High car ownership could be related to the high incomes as GDP per capita is US$ 17,468 which is at present the highest in the Middle East. The World Bank (1995), Issues in Development, Washington. Town Planning Department. ¹raffic System Report (1986), p. 256. The industry area in Al Ain comprises mainly workshops and small non-polluting factories. In 1981 an area of 12.5 km was set aside for the university. Similar criticisms were made by Loftman and Brendan (1996) to prestige policy recently adopted to some British cities. This could be related to the high annual population growth rate in the U.A.E. which is approximately 3.5%. Ministry of Planning (1994), The Statistical Year Book. This sector represents actually 37% of the total jobs. Ministry of Planning (1994), The Statistical Year Book. Simultaneously, expatriates represent in Al Ain around 70% of the total population. Ministry of Planning, National Census of 1995. Census on Housing Units in Al Ain 1994 Ministry of Planning, Abu Dhabi. According to the Master Plan recommendations the water balance in 1985 had shown a water deficit of 422.1 million m per annum which required an urgent readjustment of the consumption curve at that time which would otherwise have presented a critical situation. Master Plan Document, Vol. 1 p. 77. The estimated cost of desalinated supply is, according to the estimation of Master Plan Document Dhs 3000 million per year (app. $800 million) excluding the cost of distribution. This means that one m of water costs $3. Master Plan Document, Vol. 1, p. 77. The present population in Al Ain region is 64% expatriates and 36% Nationals which shows the heavy dependence on foreign workforce. National Census 1995, Ministry of Planning. Statistic Year Book 1994. Ministry of Planning. That what happened for example in the USA during the period 1940—1960 when 6000 small urban centres declined (Northam, 1975, p. 134). On competition between settlements and cities see Hagget (1975, p. 374). According to Middle East Economic Development MEED (1995), the crude oil reserves for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi at the current rate of international market is 135 years, which will thus, maintain the major role of the government in planning. Al Wagan, Khazna and Al Fagaa villages might accordingly respond to some of these criteria. Depending on the availability of resources and efficiency of development plans these settlements could reach a size of 10,000—20,000 within a decade or two according to the current national growth (see Fig. 6). Activities that depend less on water, such as camels rearing, date harvesting and palm planting, could still survive and constitute a basis for a new agro-industry in the region.
PII: S0197-3975(98)00056-3
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain MUSTAPHA BEN HAMOUCHE Al Ain ¹own Planning Department, ºnited Arab Emirates
ABSTRACT Urbanization in the Gulf countries is strongly shaped by the oil-based economy and is characterized by a primate distribution. The United Arab Emirates shows an exception to this trend to some extent due to the federal political system on the one hand and the ‘‘sedentarization’’ policy for Bedouin population in their homeland on the other. Urban development in the Al Ain region presents an example of such a balanced distribution. However, the fast growth of Al Ain city generated by planning practices that have been developed in an economy of abundance and as a result of a generous welfare policy, could lead the region to rejoin the Gulf model of primacy. Thus, a spatial strategy is required to redress the situation. 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: primacy; urban growth; spatial strategy; Gulf cities
INTRODUCTION One of the major problems that face planners and managers in the developing countries is the fast growth of their urban population (Choguill, 1994, p. 936; Rakodi and Devas, 1993, p. 1; Schwab, 1992, p. 81). This problem is further complicated as most of this growth is concentrated in a very few cities, creating a spatial imbalance in the distribution of human settlements within the national territory. Daily life within these cities is often degrading due to the overuse of existing structures and/or lack of amenities, overcrowding and pollution. This imbalance is best known as primacy and is defined as the growth of one large city at the expense of other cities. On comparing settlement patterns in different countries it has been concluded that primacy is one of the characteristics of urbanization in less developed countries. Among explanations put forth to explain this phenomena, researchers have suggested the lasting impact of colonial exploitation (El Shakhs and Obudho, 1974), political instability (Brennan and Richardson, 1986), inefficient patterns of state intervention in the economy (World Bank, 1982) and intermittent droughts and/or natural catastrophes (Glantz and Katz, 1985). In more extrapolated models, Richardson (1972) considers that primacy generally appears in countries that have a short history of urbanization and have simple economic and
Correspondence to: Al Ain Town Planning Department, P.O. Box 1339, Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab Emirates.
303
304
M. B. Hamouche
political structures. Alperovich (1993) considers that populations are less evenly distributed in countries where government involvement in the economy is extensive. Regarding measurement of primacy, rank-size theory has been the mostly used model which permits the simple description of a settlement distribution. It consists of considering the population size of the city in relation to its rank within the settlement pattern. Thus, a city which has a rank ‘‘n’’ should ideally have its size 1/n of the biggest city. In its simpler terms, the ideal rank-size distribution of human settlements is that in which different levels of cities, mainly small, medium and big cities, co-exist in one territory. Despite the limited validity of such a theory to provide a universal understanding of urban distribution, it provides a general model which permits the simple description of a settlement pattern (Guerin-Pace, 1995, p. 553; Alperovich, 1993, p. 1592). Like in many other less developed countries, primacy dominates the distribution of cities and settlements in the Gulf countries, most of which have witnessed an accelerated urbanization during the last few decades (Table 1). Saudi Arabia, which is the biggest country of the Gulf and the oldest oil-producing state is a case in point. There a few cities hold most of the population of their regions. For example, the capital city of Riyadh has 80% of the total population of its region that comprises 2400 human settlements (Abdel Rahman et al., 1995; Abdullah, 1982). It is also 18 times larger than the second city in its region (Abdel Rahman, 1995). Other Gulf states, such as Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain show the extreme forms of primacy by being one state, one capital and one city in spite of the efforts made for decentralization and redistribution of the population (Roberts, 1979; Pereira, 1977; Buchanan and Partners, 1983). Despite the absence of extensive studies on urbanization in the Gulf countries, some explanations mentioned above show relevance to primacy in this region. The few shared factors shaping the socio-economic and political life of these countries, such as the heavy involvement of governments in welfare policy, the oil-based economy and the central administrative system, could be considered causes of primacy. Compared to other Gulf countries, the city system in the United Arab Emirates shows some exceptions due to some specific factors (Figs. 1 and 2). The UAE was established in 1971 as a federal union of seven Emirates, each of which has its own capital. Despite the dependency on oil the government adopted huge and long-term programs to encourage agriculture and diversify non-oil exports which had, according to Middle East Monitor, reached 43% of total exports in 1994. On the socio-spatial level agricultural development was also a means to settle local population, mostly Bedouins, in their territories and achieve social justice in the distribution of oil income among citizens. Al Ain is the eastern region of Abu Dhabi Emirate and is a striking example of such a policy. The Regional Development strategy applied during the last 30 years has succeeded in distributing the population over the territory of the Emirate. Accordingly, Al Ain city was developed as an inland urban pole in contrast to the
Table 1. Urbanization trends in the Gulf region
Bahrain Kuwait Qatar Saudi Arabia U.A.E.
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
63.8 59.1 62.9 15.9 25.0
82.3 72.3 72.4 29.7 40.0
78.7 77.8 79.9 48.7 57.2
80.5 90.2 85.6 66.8 71.5
83.0 95.9 89.9 77.3 81.0
85.4 97.7 92.6 81.8 86.2
87.6 98.2 94.1 84.7 88.8
Source: World urbanization prospects. 1993 United Nations NY.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
305
Fig. 1. The location of Al Alin region. Source: Al Ain TPD.
other cities of the country which are mostly located on the Arabian Gulf coast. With respect to the rank-size theory, Al Ain is the second city in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and has a population half of that of the capital Abu Dhabi city, and thus responds to the ideal distribution model. Within the region, the total population of 324,000 is, according to the national census of 1995, distributed as 2/3 in Al Ain city and 1/3 in the rural areas of around 20 settlements. The effort of the Government to stabilize the rural population during the last 30 years has been successful, as is shown in the present stability in the urbanization trend (Fig. 3). However, will this stability, maintained by a welfare policy and the availability of oil resources, prevail on the general urbanization trend in the Gulf countries? In other words, is the regional balance of Al Ain sustainable? The hypothesis of this study is that new economic, social and physical measures are required on the strategic level at this stage of development. Otherwise Al Ain will lose its balanced distribution and will rejoin, in the long run, the Gulf model of urbanization. Secondly, it is believed that actions are available locally to restrain or at least to moderate such a development. Specifically, a shifting from urban priorities in favor of its surrounding settlements is suggested. One of the important
306
M. B. Hamouche
Fig. 2. Rank-size theory applied to UAE cities. Source: National Report of UAE to U.N. on Human settlements (December 1995).
Fig. 3. Urbanization trend in Al Ain Region. Source: (National Censuses 1975, 1980 & 1995) Ministery of planning. (Master Plan Document, vol. 1).
aspects of this strategy which is within the reach of the Municipality and Town Planning Department is, therefore, the establishment of a spatial strategy for the city of Al Ain and its region.
URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN AL AIN Historically speaking, human settlements in the Al Ain region were located on the major trade routes crossing the Empty Quarter of the Arabian Desert. These settlements were rest areas for merchants and tribes traveling to and from Persia and India. Shallow lenses of sweet water trapped in the sand allowed the local Bedouin population to settle around water points and develop small oases. Coupled with the strategic location at the cross-roads, the site of Al Ain city was the most fortunate area of the region because of its proximity to the Oman mountains. Due to some geomorphologic conditions, rain water drained to the plain of Al Ain and transformed it to a fertile land under which lies a big water reservoir. The many scattered settlements grew to become the main districts of the
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
307
city, sustained by the oases and the irrigation system that was introduced by Persians centuries ago. Besides the seasonal migration of herdsmen, local tribes depended also in their daily life on the crops of these oases. A dramatic change took place in the region after the successful exploitation of oil in 1967. A regional development policy which had as a main aim to stabilize the Bedouin population and to distribute equitably the incomes of oil among citizens was adopted. Actions were consequently taken to reinforce agriculture within the existing settlements and improve daily conditions of rural populations. Accordingly, existing settlements witnessed an accelerated physical development as they hosted huge programs of public housing, facilities and public utility services. A regional grid of a transportation system was developed that related them to each other and to the other cities of the Emirates. In further strengthening the regional development and encouraging decentralization, Al Ain region was subdivided into administrative zones each of which had its own sub-municipality. Al Ain city, the main human settlement, has enormously benefited from the new situation. Being the home village of the ruling family, it profited from the special care of President Sheik Zayed Bin Sultan who intended to develop it as a ‘‘modern garden city blooming on the edge of the desert’’. Beyond this poetic slogan, Al Ain was considered in the context of the regional economy as a market city that would help its satellite-like villages to prosper. In political and administrative terms, it became the capital of the Eastern region of Abu Dhabi Emirate. Consequently, the city has undergone unprecedented urban growth which quadrupled its size within the last 30 years. It passed from 50 km in 1976 to 98 km in 1985. At present the official administrative boundaries of the urban area includes 226 km. ¹he pattern of spatial growth Apart from the arid climate and the sand dunes, the site of Al Ain does not present any physical constraints for urban development. Urban development is, however, strongly shaped by the presence of the two main valleys, Wadi Al Ain and Wadi Tawia, and the linear form of Hafeet mountain, and the political border with the state of Oman. Earlier Al Ain city was characterized by empty spaces separating the different settlements, and in the absence of a planning strategy, urban development proceeded in a leap frog-like fashion that was generated by a succession of projects financially approved by Abu Dhabi city. In 1973, a Town Planning Department (TPD) was created to take charge of the development of Al Ain city and the surrounding rural settlements. Despite the establishment of a Preliminary Master Plan, the development of Al Ain from 1973 to 1985 has continued in the same pattern as before. Major investment programs were initiated in the fields of housing, education, health, leisure and utilities that bridged the gaps between former settlements. In 1985, a Comprehensive Master Plan for Al Ain city and its Region was established and adopted as a base document for the development of the city and its region from 1986 to 2000 (Fig. 4). However, the development of Al Ain for various reasons was governed by the daily practices of the TPD. The Master Plan was thus, turned into a ‘‘Servant Plan’’ that had no legal power and no major effect on the urban development. One reason for such obsolescence was the pace of urban growth that surpassed the projections of the Master Plan. On the regional level, the city is taking a ‘‘T’’ form as a consequence of its development along three directions. The two main axes relating the city of Al Ain to Abu Dhabi and Dubai cities constitute the spines of urban growth. Two other axes which act to a lesser degree relate the city to the rural settlements located to the south. A grid system of roads linking these axes insures accessibility to sectors between the axes and thus, reduces the length of the tentacles of the star-like form.
308
M. B. Hamouche
Fig. 4. Master plan for Al Ain Region (Year 2000). Source: Master Plan Document (Al Ain TPD).
The historical background of Al Ain city is also evident in its urban growth pattern through the polycentric form of the city. Early settlements, such as Al Jimi, Hili, Al Mutaredh and Al Towyya, which were in the past scattered over the site were adopted as districts in the administrative subdivision of the urban territory. ºrban planning as a factor in urban growth Urban growth in less developed countries is generally synonymous with overurbanization and thus is considered as an undesirable process that could not be controlled (Devas and Rakodi, 1993). However, in the case of the Gulf countries, and particularly in UAE, urbanization which has accompanied economic prosperity is regarded as a positive process that generates development and insures social equity. Cities have therefore been considered as signs of success and progress. Accordingly, the governments have always opted for urban growth and enhanced local institutions to achieve this goal. Despite some adverse effects that occurred in some earlier Gulf cities, such as the shortage of water, congestion, and lack of
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
309
facilities, this trend is still encouraged (Hathloul and Edadan, 1995; Al-Ibrahim, 1979). Urban planning is thus used as a tool for promoting urban growth rather than for controlling and limiting expansion. One of the major changes that occurred during the recent decades was the establishment of a central system of administration and the shift in control of space from the traditional system to the modern one. Human settlements that used to be controlled by tribes on the basis of a social hierarchy and a territorial subdivision of the desert, are now under the supervision of the Municipality. Modern tools in planning and urban administration, such as building permits and zoning, are used to manage and control these settlements. In the case of Al Ain, a Computer Data Management System (CDMS) has been installed in order to ease the task for planners and the administrators in TPD and the Municipality. Other aspects of urban planning and management system in Al Ain city which promote growth are described below. ¹he grid road pattern and the transportation system. Historically, the grid pattern of roads was first introduced to Gulf cities in Saudi Arabia in 1947 (Hathloul, 1996; Chaline, 1990) with the development of housing for oil company personnel. It was then generalized through Master Plans made by foreign experts, such as Shankland Cox, Buchanan, and Doxiadis (Chaline, 1990). This system was believed to be the magic solution to traffic congestion. It was not only applied to new cities and their extensions but to old cities as well. Traditional urban nuclei in Kuwait and Jeddah were therefore crisscrossed by straight arteries regardless of their organic spatial organizations (Costello, 1977). The application of the grid system on Al Ain was ideal due to its flat site and dispersed development. The grid pattern was first laid out to link the scattered settlements and then extended along the two major axes linking Al Ain with Abu Dhabi and Dubai successively. As an ‘‘advanced’’ preventive measure to the problem of congestion, main roads were designed to dual three lane carriageway standard, irrespective of the expected traffic flow or their function. In addition, most junctions were designed as roundabouts that sometimes reach 150 m in radius. Consequently, traffic volume compared to road network capacity is, as low as 30%. In other words, it seems that the network was designed to solve the problems of the future city of Al Ain but not necessarily that of the present. Besides the expansion in land use that had been generated by this system, another consequence is the public’s dependence on the car. People are often confronted, for example, with the need to cross the road by car as there are a few crossing facilities. Arteries have an average width of 72 m which are often embellished by uninterrupted fences and greenery, discouraging foot traffic. On the residential level, secondary and tertiary roads range between 17 and 32 m in width and each house is provided with open parking areas outside its external wall along with the garage within the courtyard. The transportation system is based on private cars and taxis. According to statistics of the local Police Department, car ownership in Al Ain region is 1.80 cars per household for citizens and 1.12 for non citizens. Whereas taxis, typically represent 25—30% of the total traffic flows on the town roads while the bus system is still in its experimental stage. ¸and use and zoning system. One of the consequences of the gridiron system of roads is the equal accessibility of urban areas. Urban activities can therefore be located anywhere in the city and do not necessarily have to compete for land in the city center. The zoning system was developed to prevent chaotic distribution of facilities all over the urban area (Chung, 1994).
310
M. B. Hamouche
Al Ain seems to have benefited from previous experience in the Gulf cities. Zones were defined with scrutiny for the main activities such as housing, industry, education, health, administration and leisure. Large blocks within the grid were reserved for such activities in the form of ad hoc zones. One of the major consequences of the allocation of urban activities in distinct zones is the reservation of land for future development. Apart from the industrial zone which has been taking shape since the early stage of development, most of the other zones have been awaiting their development for over a decade. This is the case of the Civic Center and some residential areas. Other activities, such as the hospital, occupy their sites in a chaotic way as the land is beyond their requirements. The University is another case where the zoning system was abandoned for reasons of sexual segregation and management. One impact of the zoning system is the pendulum-like effect of traffic flow due to the multiplication of trips between the three mini-poles within the city; the industrial zone, the civic area, and the old city-center called suq. Despite the low volume of traffic compared to the road capacity, axes relating these three mini poles often witness congestion in peak hours. Another consequence of the zoning concept is the need for parking spaces in each zone and for each public building. According to the Master Plan and transportation and traffic System Report, there were in 1985 over 5500 official public parking spaces all on the ground level in the city center and a further 850 on unsurfaced vacant land. Only 65% of this number is used at any time of the day. In addition, the parking area reserved for the Municipality occupies 30,000 m for a capacity of 660 places. The building itself occupies an area less than one-third the size of its lot. As official working time is limited to morning (from 7.30 to 1.30 p.m.) and the building is located in a remote area, such parking areas are left unused most of the day and on weekends. Institutional system and Master Plan. Among shortages of the TPD is the lack of power within a structure of rival departments and the absence of a legal framework which strengthens its actions. Figure 5 shows that the TPD is horizontally and vertically overwhelmed by other structures. Despite the coordination that exists between different bodies of the local authorities, many departments act autonomously and thus interfere with the prerogatives of the TPD. Each department has its own list of annual projects that is discussed and approved by the Project Committee of Abu Dhabi Emirate. However, even projects that do not necessarily reflect the objectives of the Master Plan are approved if they are successfully argued within the committee.
Fig. 5. TPD within Abu Dhabi Department Structure. Source: Master Plan Document (Al Ain TPD).
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
311
As a result of the weak status of the Master Plan and the rival administrative context of the TPD, Al Ain city has become a laboratory for uncoordinated projects, both public or private. The city has turned into a cluster of big buildings that dominate its urban structure, such as the airport, the university, the zoo and the mushrooming private super-markets. In some cases approval of new projects is done at the expense of the upgrading of existing areas within the city. Many new projects including those for tourists and leisure complexes, have been submitted for approval whereas old, low-income housing areas are still waiting their turn. In other words, such an approach has in some ways masked superficially major urban problems of the city and diverted local resources from basic services towards prestige projects. In addition, it creates new burdens for the Municipality as it increases maintenance and management tasks. ¸and property and urban growth. Land in Abu Dhabi Emirate is legally held by the Ruler who allots it, free of charge, to citizens and approves its public development. Its use is principally determined according to social needs of local population and public utilities. It is developed without consideration of market mechanisms and without considering its potential economic value and use. The effects of such a process can be easily seen in the allotment policy to meet individual demands. In 1995, nearly 500 building licenses were delivered from the Municipality to citizens owning private house plots. However, an important number of these plots were left undeveloped for years as there was no follow up from the local authorities. Concerning public requirements, sites for public facilities, in the absence of any administrative constraints or competition from private companies, are defined according to the availability of space within the city as soon as the project is financially approved. Too often, sites that present minimum constraints in terms of demolition and compulsory purchase are the first selected for the new projects. In other cases, new sites located out at the urban edge are developed which further extend the city. Housing policy, regulations and standards. Housing in Al Ain reflects the generous grants and loans of the government to citizens for home purchase. This is a part of the public delivery system of huge programs to cope with the high and ever increasing housing demand that have been implemented since the 1970s. Investment housing is another system of housing policy which aims at absorbing the demands of expatriate population. Units are built by private investors with a system of loans from public funds and then rented to companies, individuals and government employees. The natural growth of the non-citizen population and the continuous import of a foreign workforce encourage more investments in the housing sector and thus further extend the city. Despite the actual surplus of 3000 units (which is also partly due to unaffordable rents), the TPD is still issuing building permits for such projects. Regarding building regulations and standards, TPD does not have a complete development policy nor urban regulation documents. However, the few existing texts dealing with issues such as building setbacks, location within the plots, height limits and dimensions of internal spaces, reflect perfectly the pro-growth urban policy. In residential areas, for example, plot sizes range between 60;60 m and 90;90 m in accordance with large family size and future expansion possibilities. On the block level, plots are generally organized in a succession of two back-toback rows of plots separated from each other with alleys of 3 m that are intended to be used for maintenance and utility lines. Besides the restriction of heights to a maximum of two stories for housing, the construction covers a very meager part of the plot which does not, on average,
312
M. B. Hamouche
exceed 20%. The construction, for visual reasons and due to adoption of the villa type of house, is most often located at the center of the plot. Regarding the geometry of land subdivision, plots are recommended by higher authorities to be square as this pure form eases dimensioning and insures social equity among beneficiaries. Citizens also desire this form rather than irregular ones as it fits better the villa house type which allows openings on the four sides of the construction. Consequently, irregular pieces of land which result from subdivision are frequently left as unused residues. ºrban planning, architecture and design. In contrast to the comprehensive and long-term vision of the Master Plan document, planning practices in Al Ain TPD are dominated by a pro-design approach and exhibitionist architecture. Besides the private projects which are submitted by the consultants to the TPD for building permits, the department is also in charge of a number of urban projects that are annually approved by the Project Committee in Abu Dhabi. Like other departments, proposals are made by the TPD each year for financial support. Once registered, they are submitted in the form of a competition to which international consultants are invited to participate. Depending on the type of the project, new sites are often selected with regard to the degree of exposure and visual potentialities they offer. Architects accordingly show off all their talents and make use of the latest design techniques to exploit the site. Regardless of the land value and economic potentialities of the site, or whether it is in the city center or in the periphery, such aesthetic values are often accented by a green belt and parking areas that surrounds the new projects and allow a convenient distance for visual admiration. This villa-like typology is further stressed by the gridiron pattern of streets that subdivide land into big parcels in which buildings occupy the center. In response to the Islamic Arabic style that is officially recommended by the TPD, projects are treated with traditional elements that are added to the facades such as the arcades, the domes, the claustra and arabesques. However, essential values attached to such elements, such as responsiveness to climate, respect of privacy and rational use of space, are most often neglected. Incongruities with local conditions are overcome with powerful systems of air conditioning, irrigation and an armada of staff for maintenance and landscaping. Sizable projects are sometimes proposed without studying their impact on the city and the region. Three projects located at the edge of the city have been recently approved which provide examples. The first is the new road that will link the airport to the eastern ‘‘gate’’ of the city located about 16 km away in an area known as al Oha. The location of the road beyond the actual natural boundary of the city, known as Wadi Tawia Valley, constitutes a new boundary which will add an area of nearly 23 km to the city that will inevitably pull the urban development to the north. The second project is that of the new laborers’ city which is supposedly located on the peripheral truck road. Located about 10 km south of the city center, the city will form a new satellite separated from the existing urban edge by an important undeveloped piece of land. As the new city is intended to be a residential area for low-income laborers, it will become a dormitory city that will depend on both the city center and the industrial area. In the long run, the pendulum-like traffic flow that will be generated from daily trips will also be another factor extending sprawl to the south. On the eastern side, 10 years ago Al Ain city was separated from the two villages of Sulaymat and Yahar located along Abu Dhabi road. Many new low cost housing areas have recently been developed on the interstitial spaces. Consequently, this led to the conurbation of the city with the existing villages and the airport.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
313
THE PARADOX OF DEVELOPMENT If the government of Abu Dhabi has been successful during the last 30 years in creating a new urban center that has lessened the distortion between urban and rural areas, the present growth rate of Al Ain city threatens the benefits of this policy. The original inherited settlement pattern of the Bedouin tribes and tradesmen in the big desert, the availability of water and the traditional economy of frugality, is presently threatened by the new socio-economic demands. The ever increasing and high consumption rate of water due to the mechanization of irrigation and urban development has significantly affected the water balance in the region. The shortage of water coupled with the increasing salinity is at present compensated by the provision of desalinated water which is piped from the coast. However, the import of desalinated water to the rural areas for irrigation is obviously not practical. Coupled with the costly fertilization (due to the sandy soil and the harsh climate) and the import of foreign workforce, all these factors skyrocket the price of the crops beyond the actual market prices of goods which are at present imported from neighboring countries and thus force the local population to relinquish agriculture. In contrast to the monobasic and declining economy of rural settlements, Al Ain city is witnessing diversity and expansion in its employment market. Despite the dependency on oil and government sectors, which accounts for 37% of the total labor workforce, many sectors other than agriculture are being developed such as higher education, health, finance, trade and tourism. It is obvious that the continuous growth of Al Ain will establish a pull—push situation in the region. Will the distributive socio-economic policy on which the regional structure relies be able to maintain the spatial balance in the region? Two scenarios can be envisaged for the development of the settlement pattern in the region. In the first case, Al Ain city would continue to grow at the same pace at the expense of the remote rural settlements and would cause their gradual decline and their passing out of existence. This can be projected from the continuing extension of the urban envelope. Despite the absence of any formal approval for the new boundaries, as the Master Plan is still under review, a new map for ‘‘Greater’’ Al Ain has been prepared by the Computer Data Management System section which shows the administrative subdivision of the urban territory and the newly added districts. Accordingly, the city covers a total area of 500 km, including the new areas located beyond the former urban envelope. Considering the 10% Al Ain city growth rate during the last 30 years, the new areas will provide the city with sufficient space for the development during the next 10 years. In fact, many satellite-like villages around the city, such as Sulaymat, Yahar, and Al-Oha, have already been swallowed by the sprawling of the city and have thus turned into outskirt districts. This scenario of suburbanization is taking place in most Gulf cities and other less developed countries as a reflexion of the American model of residential enclaves with low-density, single-family houses, built in automobileaccessed areas (Leaf, 1994). In the second scenario, the remote villages will continue to survive due to their location within a radius of 150 km around the city. According to some theories, such a ‘‘functional distance’’ would enable the inhabitants to maintain residences in the small centers and also commute daily to places of employment, shopping, leisure and education in the central city (Northam, 1979, p. 134; Hagget, 1975, p. 336). Optimistically, the growth of Al Ain in this case will have a spread effect (Gaile, 1992, p. 10) on its region, and contribute in its development as a growth pole. Already, most of the young generation and the literate in the rural settlements are actually employed in the cities and travel daily to and from their places of work. One of the implications of this scenario is the turning of the villages into dormitories and/or secondary residences for holidays and week ends.
314
M. B. Hamouche
A SPATIAL STRATEGY FOR THE REGION OF AL AIN According to either scenario there seems to be a need for a spatial strategy that can redress the current trend of growth and help maintain the regional balance between Al Ain city and its region. It is remarkable that at this stage, Al Ain city has achieved a medium size that gives it the opportunity to compete on equal terms with the other cities of the UAE. It is, therefore, an opportune moment to review the pro-growth policy of Al Ain city before the region enters a problematic stage of spatial development. Accordingly, local authorities should restrain the pull of Al Ain city by creating mechanisms that slow down its development in favor of the other settlements. This could be achieved in spatial terms through the reviewing of the urban policy on two levels: Al Ain city and its region. On the first level, local authorities should be concerned with maintaining public infrastructure, improving public transportation system, levying taxes on land and establishing land market mechanisms. One of the hard tasks in this new policy is to slow down the extension of Al Ain city by redefining its urban edges by improving the absorptive capacity that optimizes the existing land use. The second level of this strategy consists of revitalizing the rural settlements in accordance with the ‘‘sedentarization’’ policy of Bedouin population and the dispersion of urban development (Fig. 6). Undoubtedly, the urbanization in the UAE is an irreversible phenomenon that will reshape radically its socio-economic and physical structure due to the economic potential of the country. One development policy that has been widely applied for a long time in different countries is the creation of ‘‘key settlements’’ and ‘‘growth poles’’ that attract public and private investments away from primate cities (Powe and Whitby, 1994; Gaile, 1992; Harthshorn, 1992; Currie, 1976). Despite the present criticism of heavy public involvement in urban policies (Devas and Rakodi, 1993), UAE has followed this policy successfully. It is therefore not unreasonable to expect success in applying this policy to other villages which would constitute new urban centers in their sub-regions. Selection of settlements for this policy should be based on relevant criteria such as economic development potential, inter-regional equity and locational and spatial consistency (Gaile, 1992; Powe and Whitby, 1994). At the social level, this policy could soften the negative impacts on the local population of the transition from the semi-Bedouin life to ‘‘full’’ urbanization. In addition to the re-allocation of resources to the depressed sub-regions the application of the growth pole policy to selected human settlements requires new mechanisms for economic development that will partially substitute for the declining agricultural economy. In contrast to the present exogenous model development that depends entirely on expatriate expertise, an inward-looking policy that insures sustainable development of these settlements should be gradually established. This could be achieved by encouraging the local population to develop their own skills through public—private partnerships (Ferguson, 1992) and to use their local knowledge (Choguill, 1994; Gaile, 1992; Enoh, 1990; Cinneide and Keane, 1990). CONCLUSION In contrast to the primate pattern that dominates the Gulf countries, UAE represents a dispersed urbanization that is generated by the federal political system and the regional development policy. Al Ain region is an example of such a policy in which the city passed from a mere cluster of scattered villages to a medium sized city. The other face of this experience is the stabilization of the Bedouin population in the former human settlements in the remote areas, their provision with basic facilities, and the support of agriculture.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
315
Fig. 6. Location of settlements in Al Ain Region. Source: Master Plan Document (Al Ain TPD).
However, the present urban development of Al Ain city, which is mainly applied via some pro-growth planning tools, threatens the regional balance if it continues at the same pace. The declining agriculture in the remote villages, coupled with the urban policy of prestige and diversification of employment in Al Ain city, will inevitably install a pull—push factor that will lead to primacy. A spatial strategy to maintain the regional balance is therefore required. It should be twofold. As Al Ain has achieved a medium size that enables it to stand on its own and to compete with other cities of the country, resources should be diverted to rural sub-regions. One of the important components of the new spatial strategy should be the control of Al Ain city expansion by defining its new urban envelope. Developing new urban poles in the same way as Al Ain city was developed is the second part of the required strategy. This would strengthen the spatial hierarchy in the region and thus, push away the specter of primacy. Acknowledgements—This paper is based on a report prepared by the author to the Town Planning Department of Al Ain. The report is intended to be a platform for discussion on the 1st Master Plan Review and updating. TPD has certain rights to this material. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the TPD.
316
M. B. Hamouche
REFERENCES Abdel Rahman, et al. (1995) A national spatial strategy for Saudi Arabia. In: ºrban Development in Saudi Arabia, eds S. A. Hathloul and Edadan, pp 331—356, p 337. Sahan, Riyadh. Al-Hathloul, M. S. (1996) ¹he Arab Muslim city. Sahan, Riyadh. Al-Ibrahim, A. A. (1982) Regional and urban development in Saudi Arabia. Unpublished Ph.D. thesis University of Colorado, pp 228—287. Alperovich, G. (1993) An explanatory model of city-size distribution: evidence from cross-country data. ºrban Studies 30 (9), pp 1591—1601. Barrow, C. J. (1995) Sustainable development. ¹own Planning Review 17 (4), 369—386. Brennan, E. and Richardson, H. (1986) Urbanization and urban Policy in sub-Saharan Africa. African ºrban Quarterly 1, 20—42. Buchanan, C. and Partners (1983) Master Plan for Kuwait, Vol. 1, 2nd Review, Municipality of Kuwait. Chaline, C. (1990) ¸es villes du Monde Arabe. Masson, Paris. Chung, L. W. (1994) The Economics of land-use zoning. ¹own Planning Review 65 (1), 77—98. Costello, F. V. (1977) ºrbanization in the Middle East. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Currie, L. (1976) ¹iming the Megalopolis. Pergamon Press, Oxford. Choguill, C. L. (1994) Crisis, chaos, crunch? Planning for urban growth in the developing world. ºrban Studies 31 (6), 935—945. Cinneide, M. S. O. and Keane, M. J. (1990) Applying strategic planning to local economic development. ¹own Planning Review 61 (4), 475—485. Doan, P. L. (1995) Urban primacy and spatial development policy in African development plans. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 17 (3), 313—337. Devas, N. and Rakodi, C. (1993) The urban challenge. In: Managing Fast Growing Cities, eds. N. Devas and C. Rakodi, pp. 1—40. Longman, London. El-Shakhs, S. and Ubodho, R. (eds) (1974) ºrbanization, National Development, and Regional Planning in Africa. Praeger, New York. Enoh, C. O. E. (1990) Applying the objective possibility model to the development of rural areas in Third World countries. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 12 (2), 167—182. Ferguson, B. W. (1992) Inducing local growth. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 14 (3), 245—265. Gaile, G. L. (1992) Improving rural—urban linkages through small town market based development. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 14 (2), 131—148. Glantz, M. and Katz, R. (1985) Drought as a constraint in sub-Saharan Africa. Ambio 14, 334—339. Guerin, P. F. (1995) Rank-size distribution and the process of urban growth. ºrban Studies 32 (3), pp 551—562. Hagget, P. (1975) Geography; a Modern Synthesis. Harpe & Row, New York. Harthson, T. A. (1992) Interpreting the City. Wiley, New York. Leaf, M. (1994) The Suburbanization of Jakarta: a concurence of economics and ideology. ¹hird ¼orld Planning Review 16 (4), 341—356. Loftman, P. and Brendan, N. (1996) Opting for growth: prestige projects in three British Cities. ºrban Studies 33 (6), 991—1019. Middle East Monitor (1994). Ministry of Planning (1995) National Population Census, Abu Dhabi. Northam, R. M. (1975) ºrban Geography. Wiley, New York. Powe, N. and Whitby, M. (1994) Economies of settlement size in rural settlement planning. ¹own Planning Review 65 (4), 415—434. Pereira, W. and Associates (1997) ºmm Said ¸ong ¹erm Structure Plan. Qatar Planning Studies. Richardson, H. (1972) Optimity in city size, systems of cities and urban policy. Ekistics 34 (205), 393. Roberts, M. P. H. (1979) An ºrban Profile of the Middle East. Croom Helm, London. Schwab, W. A. (1992) ¹he Sociology of Cities. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Town Planning Department of Al Ain (1995) ¹he Master Plan for ¹he Region of Al Ain, Vol. 1. Town Planning Department of Al Ain (1986) ¹ransport and ¹raffic System Report. Al Ain TPD. World Bank (1982) Accelerated Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank, Washington, DC.
NOTES This is especially the case of some African countries. On primacy in Africa see Doan 1995. The rank-size rule states that the size of a given city Pn can be predicted by knowing its population rank Rn among all cities in the area studied and the size of the largest city P1. Thus; Pn"P1/Rn. See Harthson (1992), Hagget (1975) and Northam (1975). Sustainable Development is defined as an ‘‘Interaction between self reliance, ecological stability and basic needs’’, see (Barrow, 1995). This definition will help us later in designing recommendations for a spatial strategy for Al Ain Region. Al Ain is an Arabic word meaning a fountain and a spring. The region of Al Ain has a total area of 11,000 km which is subdivided into seven sub-municipalities headed by the Main Municipality of Al Ain City.
Opting for Growth: A Strategy for Al Ain
317
Al Ain has won the Second Prize of ‘‘Nations in Bloom’’ for small cities under 500,000 people in the international competition held in Madrid 1997 and organized by the International Federation of Parks and and Recreation Administration (IFPRA). This gives an approximate spatial growth rate of 10% which is among the highest in the world. It is also equivalent to that of Riyadh city (Saudi Arabia) during the economic boom period 1965—1975. World Urbanization Prospect United Nations, New York, 1993. See Firshbie (1995). The old system was based on the subdivision of the land among different tribes as regards the availability of water and grass. Natural land marks such as valleys and mountains were used for such a subdivision. Each tribe had also its administrative structure headed by a Sheikh. Town Planning Department (1986). ¹raffic System Report, p. 256. Statistics of Abu Dhabi Police Department (1995) and Population Census 1995, Ministry of Planning. High car ownership could be related to the high incomes as GDP per capita is US$ 17,468 which is at present the highest in the Middle East. The World Bank (1995), Issues in Development, Washington. Town Planning Department. ¹raffic System Report (1986), p. 256. The industry area in Al Ain comprises mainly workshops and small non-polluting factories. In 1981 an area of 12.5 km was set aside for the university. Similar criticisms were made by Loftman and Brendan (1996) to prestige policy recently adopted to some British cities. This could be related to the high annual population growth rate in the U.A.E. which is approximately 3.5%. Ministry of Planning (1994), The Statistical Year Book. This sector represents actually 37% of the total jobs. Ministry of Planning (1994), The Statistical Year Book. Simultaneously, expatriates represent in Al Ain around 70% of the total population. Ministry of Planning, National Census of 1995. Census on Housing Units in Al Ain 1994 Ministry of Planning, Abu Dhabi. According to the Master Plan recommendations the water balance in 1985 had shown a water deficit of 422.1 million m per annum which required an urgent readjustment of the consumption curve at that time which would otherwise have presented a critical situation. Master Plan Document, Vol. 1 p. 77. The estimated cost of desalinated supply is, according to the estimation of Master Plan Document Dhs 3000 million per year (app. $800 million) excluding the cost of distribution. This means that one m of water costs $3. Master Plan Document, Vol. 1, p. 77. The present population in Al Ain region is 64% expatriates and 36% Nationals which shows the heavy dependence on foreign workforce. National Census 1995, Ministry of Planning. Statistic Year Book 1994. Ministry of Planning. That what happened for example in the USA during the period 1940—1960 when 6000 small urban centres declined (Northam, 1975, p. 134). On competition between settlements and cities see Hagget (1975, p. 374). According to Middle East Economic Development MEED (1995), the crude oil reserves for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi at the current rate of international market is 135 years, which will thus, maintain the major role of the government in planning. Al Wagan, Khazna and Al Fagaa villages might accordingly respond to some of these criteria. Depending on the availability of resources and efficiency of development plans these settlements could reach a size of 10,000—20,000 within a decade or two according to the current national growth (see Fig. 6). Activities that depend less on water, such as camels rearing, date harvesting and palm planting, could still survive and constitute a basis for a new agro-industry in the region.