- Email: [email protected]
Our Changing planet: The FY global change research program
Journal o/Atmospheric
Pergamon
and Solar-Terrrsrnal
Physzrs, Vol. 59, No. 17. pp. 2247-2249. 1997 0 1997 Elsewer Saence Ltd All rights reserved. Printed IIIGreat Britain 13646826197 $17 OO+O.OO
Book Reviews
Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability, Anderson D. L. and Willebrand J. 1996, 493 pp. SpringerVerlag, DM 298, hb, ISBN 3-540-61459-l. Climate change on decadal time scales can result from changes in the concentrations of (infrared) radiatively active gases and also from natural causes. The causes of the latter are not well known-that is the reason for the new WCRP experiment on climate variability, CLIVAR. This book arising from a NATO Advanced Study Institute held in Les Houches, in the French Alps, during February 1995, covers the current state of knowledge. The focus is on ocean-atmosphere interactions. J. M. Wallace (Seattle, U.S.A.) reviews observed climatic variability, both its time dependence (QBO, SOL principal component analysis) and spatial structure (empirical orthogonal functions, North Atlantic oscillation, ENSO, warmer continents and cooler oceans). T. N. Palmer (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) considers predictability of the atmosphere and ocean on time scales ranging from days to decades in the nonlinear climate system which, fundamentally, is chaotic; the ENS0 seems to be predictable up to a year or so in advance. The upper troposphere (300 to 100 hPa) cooled by approx. 0.4”C from 1960 to 1990, according to radiosondes which are mainly launched over land rather than oceans. Rather than being associated with surface warming (radiatively, caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases), this could be the result of changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. Better-and proven---GCMs are required. E. S. Sarachik et al. (Seattle, U.S.A.) consider possible mechanisms-solar variability, volcanoes, anthropogenic aerosols, surface albedo changes-for climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales, together with stochastic climate models, coupled atmosphere-ocean modes, and the predictability of models. R. Dickson et al. (MAFF Fisheries Laboratory, U.K.) discuss long term changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic Ocean. M. Latif et ul. (MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany) present a mechanism for decadal climate variability at mid-latitudes caused by coupled ocean-atmosphere modes associated with slow changes of subtropical ocean gyres. L. Bengtsson (also MPI, Hamburg) considers the climate response resulting from changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the predictions of various models and IPCC climate change scenarios: this is a particularly excellent chapter. J. Marotzke (MIT, U.S.A.) analyses thermohaline feedback mechanisms in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. T. F. Stocker (Bern, Switzerland) gives an overview of observations and models of climate variability on century and millennium time scales. D. Olbers and C. Volker (AWI, Bremerhaven. Germany) consider Charney and De Vore type models of the ocean, especially the Antarctic circumpolar current. Finally, M. Ghil and P. Yiou (ENS, Paris, France) discuss the connections between time series analysis and non2247
linear dynamics, and present some novel methods for spectral analysis. This is a useful book on a topic that is important for humanity. However, the proof reading leaves a little to be desired. Michael J. Rycroft International Space University Strasbourg, France
Our Changing Planet, The FY 1998 U.S. Global
Change Research Program, An Investment in Science for the Nation’s Future. A report by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council, A supplement to the President’s Fiscal Year 1998 I am on the mailing list of the U.S. Global Change Research Information Office, 2250 Pierce Road, University Center, MI 48710, U.S.A. I recently received this volume and, considering that it could well be of significant use to readers of the Journal of’Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, I give here both the Abstract and the Executive Summary.
Our Changing Planet: The FY Global Change Research Program is a report to Congress supplementing the President’s FY98 budget, pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The report describes the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP); reviews progress in global change research over the past decade; presents highlights of recent and current research on key global change environmental science issues; outlines integrative activities and perspectives supported by the USGCRP; discusses new global change research challenges in the coming decade; and provides a detailed view of the FY98 USGCRP budget, including FY98 program components and program highlights by agency. Achieving the goals and objectives of this program will require continued strong support for the scientific research needed in order to improve understanding of how human activities are affecting the global environment as well as how natural and human-induced change is alfecting society. Over the past decade, scientific research has greatly advanced the understanding of global environmental change. Research supported through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is providing answers to important questions about the Earth system, how it is changing, and the implications of global change for society. The USGCRP is focusing research on four key areas of Earth system science that are of significant scientific and
BOOK REVIEWS
2248 practical importance. issues are:
These priority
environmental
science
1. Seasonal
to Interannual Climate Variability-The USGCRP plays a leading role in an ongoing global endeavor to develop and enhance prediction of seasonal and interannual climate variability. These forecasts are used for economic planning and development in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water supply, and public health. 2. Climate Change Over Decades to Centuries-The USGCBP supports research to reduce uncertainties associated with prediction of long-term climate change and is broadening research to understand and assess the impacts of climate change on natural resources, public health, and socio-economic sectors. 3. Changes in Ozone, UV Radiation and Atmospheric Chemistry-Through USGCRP-supported research, emissions of CFCs from human activities have been unambiguously identified as the cause of the Antarctic ozone hole. Projections that large increases in CFC emissions would lead to large losses of stratospheric ozone underlie the agreement to phase out CFC use. Observations of declining CFC growth rates demonstrate the efficacy of the policies adopted to protect the ozone layer. 4. Changes in Land Cover and in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems-The USGCRP supports research to inventory the current land cover of the Earth and to document changes; to improve understanding of the dynamics of land-cover and land-use change and how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems react to change; and to document and understand chemical, physical, and biological processes in the oceans and their relationship with the carbon cycle and marine life. To provide the basis for continuing advancement in scientific understanding and leadership in global change research, the USGCRP continues to support a number of integrative and cooperative efforts. which contribute in varying degrees to all of the priority environmental science issues. These efforts include: . Developing an integrated global observing and monitoring system . Maintaining full and open access to useful global change data, products, and information services . Supporting fundamental scientific research needed to gain a predictive understanding of variations and changes in the Earth system . Enhancing understanding of the human contributions and responses to global change . Providing strong U.S. leadership through participation in and support for international research cooperation . Encouraging global change science literacy through global change education and communication Over the next decade, global change research can further benefit society by promoting sustainable economic development. Research challenges to accomplish this include: . Regional-scale estimates of the timing and magnitude of climate change and other aspects of global change . Regional analyses of the environmental and socio-economit consequences of climate change and other aspects of global change, in the context of other stresses . Integrated assessments of the implications for society
and the environment of climate aspects of global change
change
and
other
I commend this booklet to our readers, as a sound rationale for some of the research results that are presented in our journal.
International
Michael J. Rycroft Space University France
Gravity Wave Processes, Their Parameterization in Global K. (Ed.), NATO ASI Series, Climate Models, Hamilton, Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 50, 1997, 404 pp. Springer-Verlag, DM 248, hb, ISBN 3-540-62036-2. A timely NATO Advanced Research Workshop was held on this interesting topic in New Mexico, U.S.A., during April 1996. The subject is well addressed in the Preface. “Gravity waves can act to transfer mean horizontal momentum from the ground to levels aloft in the atmosphere or from one layer of the atmosphere to another. Flow over topography can generate stationary gravity waves that break nonlinearly in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Such waves transfer momentum from the breaking region to the earth’s surface, and this process is thought to act as a significant drag on the eastward mean winds in the midlatitude troposphere. It is known that numerical simulation models of the global atmosphere run without any attempt to impose such a drag tend to produce results characterized by unrealistically intense eastward surface winds in midlatitudes. Other processes (such as convection, jet stream instabilities, etc.) can produce gravity waves with nonzero horizontal phase speeds and which act to transfer mean momentum between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere. Comprehensive numerical models of the atmosphere generally produce unrealistic simulations of the extratropical stratospheric/mesospheric circulation unless some account is taken of the effects of these gravity waves. If credible simulations of climate (and predictions of climate response to anthropogenic forcing) are to be obtained, some physically justifiable parameterization of the momentum transport due to unresolvable gravity waves needs to be formulated. This issue is now recognized as one of the most important challenges in dynamical meteorology.” Here, 26 papers by internationally eminent scientists are presented. They range from “Some problems relating to the observed characteristics of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere” (I. Hirota) and “Gravity-wave parameters in the lower stratosphere” (R. A. Vincent et al.) to “Climatology and hydrodynamic sources of internal gravity waves in the middle and upper atmosphere” (N. M. Gavrilov), “Observational studies ofgravity waves associated with convection” (K. Sato), and “Experimental constraints on gravity wave parameterization from in situ measurements of temperature and turbulence” (F.-J. Liibken). Both observations and theory are covered in a balanced way. Then ER-2 aircraft and UARS microwave link sounder observations are discussed, as are various results obtained by numerical modelling of tropical convection, and of fronts of their attendant jets. R. R. Garcia and J. M. Prusa model the propagation and breaking (in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere) of gravity waves forced by tropospheric
Pergamon
and Solar-Terrrsrnal
Physzrs, Vol. 59, No. 17. pp. 2247-2249. 1997 0 1997 Elsewer Saence Ltd All rights reserved. Printed IIIGreat Britain 13646826197 $17 OO+O.OO
Book Reviews
Decadal Climate Variability: Dynamics and Predictability, Anderson D. L. and Willebrand J. 1996, 493 pp. SpringerVerlag, DM 298, hb, ISBN 3-540-61459-l. Climate change on decadal time scales can result from changes in the concentrations of (infrared) radiatively active gases and also from natural causes. The causes of the latter are not well known-that is the reason for the new WCRP experiment on climate variability, CLIVAR. This book arising from a NATO Advanced Study Institute held in Les Houches, in the French Alps, during February 1995, covers the current state of knowledge. The focus is on ocean-atmosphere interactions. J. M. Wallace (Seattle, U.S.A.) reviews observed climatic variability, both its time dependence (QBO, SOL principal component analysis) and spatial structure (empirical orthogonal functions, North Atlantic oscillation, ENSO, warmer continents and cooler oceans). T. N. Palmer (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) considers predictability of the atmosphere and ocean on time scales ranging from days to decades in the nonlinear climate system which, fundamentally, is chaotic; the ENS0 seems to be predictable up to a year or so in advance. The upper troposphere (300 to 100 hPa) cooled by approx. 0.4”C from 1960 to 1990, according to radiosondes which are mainly launched over land rather than oceans. Rather than being associated with surface warming (radiatively, caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases), this could be the result of changes in large-scale atmospheric dynamics. Better-and proven---GCMs are required. E. S. Sarachik et al. (Seattle, U.S.A.) consider possible mechanisms-solar variability, volcanoes, anthropogenic aerosols, surface albedo changes-for climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales, together with stochastic climate models, coupled atmosphere-ocean modes, and the predictability of models. R. Dickson et al. (MAFF Fisheries Laboratory, U.K.) discuss long term changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic Ocean. M. Latif et ul. (MPI for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany) present a mechanism for decadal climate variability at mid-latitudes caused by coupled ocean-atmosphere modes associated with slow changes of subtropical ocean gyres. L. Bengtsson (also MPI, Hamburg) considers the climate response resulting from changing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the predictions of various models and IPCC climate change scenarios: this is a particularly excellent chapter. J. Marotzke (MIT, U.S.A.) analyses thermohaline feedback mechanisms in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. T. F. Stocker (Bern, Switzerland) gives an overview of observations and models of climate variability on century and millennium time scales. D. Olbers and C. Volker (AWI, Bremerhaven. Germany) consider Charney and De Vore type models of the ocean, especially the Antarctic circumpolar current. Finally, M. Ghil and P. Yiou (ENS, Paris, France) discuss the connections between time series analysis and non2247
linear dynamics, and present some novel methods for spectral analysis. This is a useful book on a topic that is important for humanity. However, the proof reading leaves a little to be desired. Michael J. Rycroft International Space University Strasbourg, France
Our Changing Planet, The FY 1998 U.S. Global
Change Research Program, An Investment in Science for the Nation’s Future. A report by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources of the National Science and Technology Council, A supplement to the President’s Fiscal Year 1998 I am on the mailing list of the U.S. Global Change Research Information Office, 2250 Pierce Road, University Center, MI 48710, U.S.A. I recently received this volume and, considering that it could well be of significant use to readers of the Journal of’Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, I give here both the Abstract and the Executive Summary.
Our Changing Planet: The FY Global Change Research Program is a report to Congress supplementing the President’s FY98 budget, pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990. The report describes the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP); reviews progress in global change research over the past decade; presents highlights of recent and current research on key global change environmental science issues; outlines integrative activities and perspectives supported by the USGCRP; discusses new global change research challenges in the coming decade; and provides a detailed view of the FY98 USGCRP budget, including FY98 program components and program highlights by agency. Achieving the goals and objectives of this program will require continued strong support for the scientific research needed in order to improve understanding of how human activities are affecting the global environment as well as how natural and human-induced change is alfecting society. Over the past decade, scientific research has greatly advanced the understanding of global environmental change. Research supported through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is providing answers to important questions about the Earth system, how it is changing, and the implications of global change for society. The USGCRP is focusing research on four key areas of Earth system science that are of significant scientific and
BOOK REVIEWS
2248 practical importance. issues are:
These priority
environmental
science
1. Seasonal
to Interannual Climate Variability-The USGCRP plays a leading role in an ongoing global endeavor to develop and enhance prediction of seasonal and interannual climate variability. These forecasts are used for economic planning and development in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water supply, and public health. 2. Climate Change Over Decades to Centuries-The USGCBP supports research to reduce uncertainties associated with prediction of long-term climate change and is broadening research to understand and assess the impacts of climate change on natural resources, public health, and socio-economic sectors. 3. Changes in Ozone, UV Radiation and Atmospheric Chemistry-Through USGCRP-supported research, emissions of CFCs from human activities have been unambiguously identified as the cause of the Antarctic ozone hole. Projections that large increases in CFC emissions would lead to large losses of stratospheric ozone underlie the agreement to phase out CFC use. Observations of declining CFC growth rates demonstrate the efficacy of the policies adopted to protect the ozone layer. 4. Changes in Land Cover and in Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems-The USGCRP supports research to inventory the current land cover of the Earth and to document changes; to improve understanding of the dynamics of land-cover and land-use change and how terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems react to change; and to document and understand chemical, physical, and biological processes in the oceans and their relationship with the carbon cycle and marine life. To provide the basis for continuing advancement in scientific understanding and leadership in global change research, the USGCRP continues to support a number of integrative and cooperative efforts. which contribute in varying degrees to all of the priority environmental science issues. These efforts include: . Developing an integrated global observing and monitoring system . Maintaining full and open access to useful global change data, products, and information services . Supporting fundamental scientific research needed to gain a predictive understanding of variations and changes in the Earth system . Enhancing understanding of the human contributions and responses to global change . Providing strong U.S. leadership through participation in and support for international research cooperation . Encouraging global change science literacy through global change education and communication Over the next decade, global change research can further benefit society by promoting sustainable economic development. Research challenges to accomplish this include: . Regional-scale estimates of the timing and magnitude of climate change and other aspects of global change . Regional analyses of the environmental and socio-economit consequences of climate change and other aspects of global change, in the context of other stresses . Integrated assessments of the implications for society
and the environment of climate aspects of global change
change
and
other
I commend this booklet to our readers, as a sound rationale for some of the research results that are presented in our journal.
International
Michael J. Rycroft Space University France
Gravity Wave Processes, Their Parameterization in Global K. (Ed.), NATO ASI Series, Climate Models, Hamilton, Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 50, 1997, 404 pp. Springer-Verlag, DM 248, hb, ISBN 3-540-62036-2. A timely NATO Advanced Research Workshop was held on this interesting topic in New Mexico, U.S.A., during April 1996. The subject is well addressed in the Preface. “Gravity waves can act to transfer mean horizontal momentum from the ground to levels aloft in the atmosphere or from one layer of the atmosphere to another. Flow over topography can generate stationary gravity waves that break nonlinearly in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. Such waves transfer momentum from the breaking region to the earth’s surface, and this process is thought to act as a significant drag on the eastward mean winds in the midlatitude troposphere. It is known that numerical simulation models of the global atmosphere run without any attempt to impose such a drag tend to produce results characterized by unrealistically intense eastward surface winds in midlatitudes. Other processes (such as convection, jet stream instabilities, etc.) can produce gravity waves with nonzero horizontal phase speeds and which act to transfer mean momentum between the troposphere and the middle atmosphere. Comprehensive numerical models of the atmosphere generally produce unrealistic simulations of the extratropical stratospheric/mesospheric circulation unless some account is taken of the effects of these gravity waves. If credible simulations of climate (and predictions of climate response to anthropogenic forcing) are to be obtained, some physically justifiable parameterization of the momentum transport due to unresolvable gravity waves needs to be formulated. This issue is now recognized as one of the most important challenges in dynamical meteorology.” Here, 26 papers by internationally eminent scientists are presented. They range from “Some problems relating to the observed characteristics of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere” (I. Hirota) and “Gravity-wave parameters in the lower stratosphere” (R. A. Vincent et al.) to “Climatology and hydrodynamic sources of internal gravity waves in the middle and upper atmosphere” (N. M. Gavrilov), “Observational studies ofgravity waves associated with convection” (K. Sato), and “Experimental constraints on gravity wave parameterization from in situ measurements of temperature and turbulence” (F.-J. Liibken). Both observations and theory are covered in a balanced way. Then ER-2 aircraft and UARS microwave link sounder observations are discussed, as are various results obtained by numerical modelling of tropical convection, and of fronts of their attendant jets. R. R. Garcia and J. M. Prusa model the propagation and breaking (in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere) of gravity waves forced by tropospheric