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Overlooked ocean strategies to address climate change
Global Environmental Change 59 (2019) 101968
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Global Environmental Change journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha
Overlooked ocean strategies to address climate change a,
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Sarah R. Cooley *, Brittany Bello , Daniel Bodansky , Anthony Mansell , Andreas Merkl , Nigel Purvisc, Susan Ruffoa,e, Gwynne Taraskac, Anna Ziviana, George H. Leonarda a
Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th St. NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC, 20036, USA Independent Researcher, Washington, DC, USA Climate Advisers, Washington, DC, USA d California Environmental Associates, San Francisco, CA, USA e The Circulate Initiative, Singapore b c
A R T I C LE I N FO
A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Ocean climate change Ocean acidification United nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) Sustainable development goals (SDGs) Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC’s) Paris Agreement—which aims to limit climate change and increase global resilience to its effects—was a breakthrough in climate diplomacy, committing its Parties to develop and update national climate plans. Yet the Parties to the Agreement have largely overlooked the effect of climate change on ocean-based communities, economies, and ecosystems—as well as the role that the ocean can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Because the ocean is an integral part of the climate system, stronger inclusion of ocean issues is critical to achieving the Agreement’s goals. Here we discuss four ocean-climate linkages that suggest specific responses by Parties to the Agreement connected to 1) accelerating climate ambition, including via sustainable ocean-based mitigation strategies; 2) focusing on CO2 emissions to address ocean acidification; 3) better understanding ocean-based mitigation; and 4) pursuing oceanbased adaptation. These linkages offer a more complete perspective on the reasons strong climate action is necessary and inform a systematic approach for addressing ocean issues under the Agreement to strengthen climate mitigation and adaptation.
1. Introduction The Paris Agreement of 2015 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015) represented a substantial success in climate diplomacy, with all Parties agreeing to prepare, maintain, communicate, and periodically update national plans to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Tollefson and Weiss, 2015). It is increasingly clear, however, that countries’ current level of ambition will still moderately or highly endanger the climate system. Even with the most optimistic outcome of only 1.5–2.0 °C warming, substantial impacts to land, atmosphere, and ocean that are irreversible over millennia are expected (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018). With respect to the ocean in particular, climate warming goals of 1.5–2 °C are too high to sustain the quality and abundance of many ocean ecosystems and services (Gattuso et al., 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). Without heightened ambition, impacts to ocean systems will be grave. For instance, coral reefs will decline dramatically—up to 90 percent—with only 1.5 °C of warming (Schleussner et al., 2016). In addition to warming, the ocean is experiencing loss of oxygen, ocean acidification, overfishing, and pollution, and these drivers interact in
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frequently nonlinear ways (Crain et al., 2008). Combined stressors may lead to tipping points that could dramatically alter the ocean’s composition and benefits in ways for which life on Earth (especially humanity) is unprepared (Jackson, 2008). The connections among ocean stressors and impacts have been assessed since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report in 1990, providing an increasingly clear picture of present and likely future ocean conditions, and just how critical ocean systems are for sustaining life and human wellbeing on Earth (e.g., Fourth National Climate Assessment, 2018; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018; Pachauri et al., 2014). Consideration of ocean issues via international processes is advancing, including in the negotiation of a treaty addressing biological diversity beyond national jurisdiction (Leary, 2019) and in the development by the International Maritime Organization of limits on emissions from maritime shipping (Chircop et al., 2018). The international community of ocean actors, including but not limited to those who contributed to collective statements such as (Cicin-Sain et al., 2016; Pitta e Cunha et al., 2018; Stocker, Thomas, 2015; Visbeck, 2018), has been instrumental in raising the profile of the ocean generally in the global climate effort and
Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (S.R. Cooley).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101968 Received 2 February 2019; Received in revised form 23 May 2019; Accepted 11 August 2019 0959-3780/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Table 1 Summary of linkages between scientific evidence and climate agreement opportunities. Linkage To protect the ocean, Parties must increase climate ambition, including through sustainable ocean-based mitigation.
Parties should focus on CO2 reductions in addition to GHG reductions generally, which will doubly benefit the ocean by addressing both warming and acidification. Parties should understand and protect CO2 storage by the ocean through its chemistry and ecosystems.
Parties should pursue sustainable ocean-based adaptation strategies.
Broad Solution more weight to climate impacts to the ocean and its services when formulating and • Give implementing climate goals and formally acknowledge this connection • Recognize consider the interrelationships among ocean ecosystems, climate goals, and • Explicitly other non-climate anthropogenic drivers that are likely to complicate mitigation efforts. CO emissions within the array of GHGs. • Decrease “acidification avoidance targets” when setting emissions reduction targets. • Set that global warming potential is not the only global change-relevant aspect • Acknowledge of GHGs. international and domestic actions to conserve and restore ocean and coastal • Pursue carbon sinks within a science-based, precautionary approach. Key actions include, but 2
• • • • • •
are not limited to, protection and restoration of blue carbon habitats and their associated food webs, establishment of marine protected areas and reserves and reduction of other unsustainable, anthropogenic stressors on marine and coastal ecosystems. Reinforce protection of the high seas to safeguard the ocean’s capacity to store carbon. Include information on the status of ocean sinks in global assessments of progress to date and to come. Understand major controls on ocean carbon export flux. Implement a diverse portfolio of sustainable adaptation measures that maximize benefits and co-benefits and integrate equity and cost considerations. Incorporate sustainable ocean-related adaptation as an integral part of adaptation discussions and communications. Support research on primary benefits and co-benefits of ocean-related adaptation measures.
emission or carbon accounting systems, thereby also leaving them largely out of mitigation planning (Howard et al., 2017; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, 2013). In another example, the UNFCCC’s evolving rules on carbon accounting and monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) do not mention the ocean at all (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2014).
urging specific consideration of the oceanic consequences of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially ocean acidification (Billé et al., 2013; Gattuso et al., 2018, 2015; Harrould-Kolieb and Herr, 2012; Herr et al., 2014; Magnan et al., 2015). In a major step forward, ocean acidification was accepted as a slow onset event in 2010 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011), increasing the likelihood that it will be considered in future climate negotiation. More recently, ocean acidification was included as a target of Sustainable Development Goal 14.3 in 2016 (United Nations General Assembly, 2017) and as one of the WMO’s Global Climate Indicators in 2018 (World Meteorological Organization, 2018), elevating its status to an issue in need of coordinated international attention. In addition, the coming UN Ocean Decade provides an opportunity to enhance the link between the ocean and the future that humanity wants (Visbeck, 2018). More progress is needed, however, to integrate ocean issues into the global climate effort—and therefore into the processes and context of the Paris Agreement, which is now the world’s primary framework for addressing climate change internationally. As the ocean is by definition part of the climate system (Article 2, United Nations, 1992), the impacts that the ocean experiences from climate change fall squarely within the jurisdiction of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the Paris Agreement’s umbrella treaty. Moreover, the mitigation and adaptation solutions that the ocean can provide make ocean issues directly relevant to the goals of the Agreement. Since the negotiation of the Agreement, some Parties have increasingly focused on the ocean in developing their national climate policies under the Agreement, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Adaptation Communications. This encouraging step should be imitated: all Parties should take climate impacts to the ocean and its services into account when formulating and implementing their climate goals. However, developing meaningful mitigation- or adaptation-focused ocean commitments remains challenging. Although “ocean acidification” appeared in many nations’ NDCs by 2017, these references described few solutions beyond research and education (Gallo et al., 2017). Many ocean impacts, like acidification, are hard to attribute to specific nations or address under the UNFCCC framework because they occur in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) (HardenDavies, 2016). In addition, uncertainty about how to measure and influence ocean and coastal sinks has led to excluding them from most
2. The ocean as a key to enhanced climate ambition The framing provided in this paper provides a systematic approach for how countries can include ocean-climate linkages in the framework of the Paris Agreement to strengthen both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Profound benefits to human communities will follow from protecting marine ecosystems from climate change, and this has repeatedly been articulated in numerous high-level syntheses (e.g. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018; Pachauri et al., 2014). In addition, safeguarding marine ecosystems from climate change has co-benefits well beyond the climate mitigation and adaptation space. For example, losses of marine ecosystem services could hinder achievement of global development, including in particular the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (Neumann et al., 2015) related to food, health, and livelihoods (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 8, 9), development of equitable communities that are prepared for the future (SDGs 5, 8–13, 16), and protection of a functioning ocean (SDG 14) (Pecl et al., 2017). It is notable that progress in ocean-climate integration is possible not only in the context of individual NDCs but also in the context of collective action and the Paris process. Overall GHG mitigation ambitions fall short of addressing risks to ocean ecosystem function, and they do not fully address highly likely and well-documented changes like sea level rise, storm surge, and species shifts (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). Specific steps can be taken now, however, to better incorporate the ocean in the international effort to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change and thereby strengthen the overall outcomes. 3. What is needed now To address these gaps and align scientific insights with the 2
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accounting for GHG emissions in a way that is “ocean correct” (i.e., one that considers both warming and acidification potentials) would help address the growing risk to the ocean from CO2 emissions. Parties can act on this linkage by seeking to decrease CO2 emissions in particular, within the array of GHGs, and should reflect this aim in both their NDCs and the Global Stocktake. Parties could ask the IPCC or another international expert body to develop an “ocean impact scale” for main greenhouse gases, to assess the relative ocean impact of CO2 and other GHGs. This would aid Parties in setting “acidification avoidance targets” for CO2 alongside general GHG reduction targets. Doing so would acknowledge that global warming potential is not the only aspect of an atmospherically emitted gas that is relevant to planetary change. Cutting CO2 with the aim of mitigating ocean acidification has the added benefit of a faster response time than for atmospheric warming, as well.
international climate regime, we outline four ocean-climate linkages, each of which calls for a distinct set of responses by the Parties to the Paris Agreement (Table 1). 1) To protect the ocean, Parties must accelerate climate ambition. This point has repeatedly been made in ocean-focused research products and syntheses, where climate impacts on the ocean are front and center (e.g., (Cicin-Sain et al., 2016)), but it is still too often overlooked in climate forums. Acting on this linkage could involve a number of steps. Implementing Parties’ existing mitigation-related commitments is clearly the first step, followed by enhancing Parties’ mitigation-related ambition in the near term. The recently finalized Paris “rulebook” does help promote ambition through development of a robust transparency framework for reporting and review. It is notable that increased ambition could also include ocean-related measures such as promoting generation of renewable energy from the ocean by capturing its winds, heat, wave, and tidal energy, as well as protection and restoration of coastal “blue carbon” ecosystems. Non-Party stakeholders such as subnational governments and businesses could contribute by taking robust action on mitigation as well. Groups and Parties that are aware of the ocean-climate link can continue to increase awareness, including through partnering with groups of Parties such as the High-Ambition Coalition, and countries and blocs that have promoted ambition, such as small-island developing states.
1) Parties should understand and protect ocean ecosystem-based CO2 storage The ocean is the Earth’s largest carbon sink, taking up a net 2.4 Pg C yr−1 from anthropogenic CO2 emissions and holding ˜39,000 Pg C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013) via a combination of chemical and biological processes. The “biological pump” adds substantially to the ocean’s carbon storage capacity by carrying 15 Pg C yr−1 to the deep sea, where cold temperatures and high pressures store much dissolved CO2 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013). But ocean CO2 uptake is decreasing as seawater becomes warmer and more carbon-saturated (Khatiwala et al., 2009; Sabine et al., 2004), with continued decreases expected (DeVries et al., 2017; Wanninkhof et al., 2013). At the same time, coastal “blue carbon” stocks such as mangroves, marshlands, and seagrasses have significant mitigation potential but are under threat from development. Loss of these habitats would result in the release of large amounts of stored carbon; indeed, current estimates of annual CO2 release from converted and degraded blue carbon habitats are 0.15–1.02 GT, or up to the equivalent of nearly 20% of the total annual emissions from global deforestation (Pendleton et al., 2012). To act on this linkage, parties could pursue scientific and policy measures to understand and protect ocean and coastal carbon sinks. Research will help identify the major controls on the ocean carbon
1) Parties should focus on CO2 reductions specifically in addition to GHG reductions generally, in order to doubly benefit the ocean. All GHGs drive atmospheric and planetary surface warming, and therefore radiatively active anthropogenic gases (colloquially, GHGs) have been considered collectively in the UN climate regime since the outset. Because the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of non−CO2 GHGs is significantly higher than that of CO2, Parties may address climate targets by focusing on non−CO2 GHGs such as methane. However, because anthropogenic CO2 creates an acid upon dissolution in water, preferentially cutting non−CO2 GHG emissions and leaving CO2 emissions unchecked leaves the ocean at increasing risk of acidification (Billé et al., 2013) (Fig. 1). Reconsidering and appropriately
Fig. 1. Average proportional contributions of different radiatively active anthropogenic gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, and “F-gas”, or fluorinated gases) to total GHG emissions from 2004 to 2015 (from CAIT Climate Data Explorer; http://cait.wri.org/) and where they build up in the Earth system (ocean, land, atmosphere, or unknown/unattributed). Gases that stay in the atmosphere contribute to planetary warming (bright red arc), whereas CO2 that dissolves in the ocean contributes to ocean acidification (dark red arc) (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article).
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export flux modulated by the biological carbon pump (see, e.g., (Honjo et al., 2014)) as well as limits on the ocean’s ability to continue taking up atmospheric CO2 by dissolution (Cooley et al., 2018). Cooperative, broad-based pilot projects to conserve, protect, and restore both blue carbon stocks and ocean carbon sinks, via establishing marine protected areas and reserves or other area-based management measures (Waycott et al., 2009), and reducing other unsustainable anthropogenic stressors on marine and coastal ecosystems, would also contribute substantially to assessing where efforts can be most effectively dedicated. Policy measures are also needed to ensure the Global Stocktake includes accounting and reporting on carbon sinks (from open-ocean environments to coastal blue carbon stocks). This may require prioritizing research into the biological ocean carbon pump and carbon sinks as part of the U.N. Ocean Decade or other initiatives. Another priority action is to reinforce protection of the high seas, including through the development of a new international instrument on the conservation of biological diversity in ABNJ, as a means to safeguard the ocean’s capacity to store carbon (Bailey, 2018; O’Leary and Roberts, 2017).
protect, and restore coastal blue carbon ecosystems, for example, for the sake of coastal resilience. Parties can also ensure that the Global Stocktake covers ocean-related adaptation in overall commentary about adaptation. It’s important to stress that the Paris Agreement recognizes that co-benefits from ocean adaptation actions can contribute to mitigation outcomes. Lastly, financing of ocean-related climate actions should be assured within the UNFCCC’s financial mechanisms. 4. Conclusion Most nations have a coastline and benefit directly from some level of ocean livelihoods and harvests; all nations benefit from the climate modulation services the ocean currently provides. Without keeping the ocean carbon sink functional, the climate crisis cannot be solved, and the ocean will not remain functional at the currently forecasted carbon emissions trajectory. Greater ambition is essential; the future of a habitable planet depends on it. Considering the ocean throughout climate negotiations in the above-mentioned ways provides a roadmap for how to more comprehensively address climate change and secure a sustainable future for the ocean and the planet.
1) Parties should pursue sustainable ocean-based adaptation strategies
Acknowledgments
Healthy marine ecosystems protect our communities and economies from extreme weather and other environmental impacts. Conservation of mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass beds, for example, helps reduce the impact of severe storms and rising seas (Powell et al., 2019; Spalding et al., 2014). In addition, protecting key habitats for important life stages of many marine species including fish may safeguard some food provision services of ocean ecosystems despite looming changes: Moore et al. (2008) project that nutrient redistribution due to changing ocean physics will lead to possible declines in fisheries yields of 60% in the North Atlantic and 20% globally (Moore et al., 2018a,2018b). Given that the global fisheries production from marine capture and aquaculture totaled 171 tonnes in 2016, and together with inland fisheries provided about 20.3 kg person−1 to the global food supply (FAO, 2018), disruption of just wild-capture fisheries via ocean climate change represents a serious threat to the Sustainable Development Goals (Pecl et al., 2017). Many anthropogenic stressors drive additional ocean change. These include, but are not limited to, overfishing and other unsustainable exploitation of marine resources, habitat degradation, and pollution and nutrient runoff. Reducing these stressors may have the secondary effect of enhancing the ocean’s capacity to absorb the impacts of climate change by protecting overall ecosystem resilience (Visbeck, 2018). For instance, shipping regulations that slow steaming speeds provide both a conservation benefit by reducing coastal pollution, noise, and ship strikes, and the major co-benefit of reducing CO2 emissions (Mander, 2017; Moore et al., 2018a,2018b; Smith et al., 2015). An acidification-specific benefit of reducing overall shipping emissions is reduction of sulfur and nitrogen oxide release (SOx and NOx), which can additionally acidify nearby waters (Doney et al., 2007; Hassellöv et al., 2013; Hunter et al., 2011; Turner et al., 2018). Likewise, reduction of coastal drivers such as acidifying pollution is anticipated to improve coastal ecosystem resilience, allowing nearshore populations to endure CO2-driven acidification better (Kelly et al., 2011). Acting on this linkage via policy measures again requires both supporting science and ensuring that policies incorporate this oceanfocused information. Improving Parties’ understanding of the role of the ocean in their national adaptation plans starts with better scientific research, coordinated to focus on the primary benefits and co-benefits of sustainable ocean-related adaptation measures (Miller et al., 2018). Coastal countries that submit Adaptation Communications can address ocean and coastal issues, especially since some of the most pressing needs will be in the coastal areas where 40% of the global population lives (Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, 2019). Parties that include adaptation in their NDCs can include measures to conserve,
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Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Global Environmental Change journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha
Overlooked ocean strategies to address climate change a,
b
c
T c
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Sarah R. Cooley *, Brittany Bello , Daniel Bodansky , Anthony Mansell , Andreas Merkl , Nigel Purvisc, Susan Ruffoa,e, Gwynne Taraskac, Anna Ziviana, George H. Leonarda a
Ocean Conservancy, 1300 19th St. NW, Suite 800, Washington, DC, 20036, USA Independent Researcher, Washington, DC, USA Climate Advisers, Washington, DC, USA d California Environmental Associates, San Francisco, CA, USA e The Circulate Initiative, Singapore b c
A R T I C LE I N FO
A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Ocean climate change Ocean acidification United nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) Sustainable development goals (SDGs) Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change’s (UNFCCC’s) Paris Agreement—which aims to limit climate change and increase global resilience to its effects—was a breakthrough in climate diplomacy, committing its Parties to develop and update national climate plans. Yet the Parties to the Agreement have largely overlooked the effect of climate change on ocean-based communities, economies, and ecosystems—as well as the role that the ocean can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. Because the ocean is an integral part of the climate system, stronger inclusion of ocean issues is critical to achieving the Agreement’s goals. Here we discuss four ocean-climate linkages that suggest specific responses by Parties to the Agreement connected to 1) accelerating climate ambition, including via sustainable ocean-based mitigation strategies; 2) focusing on CO2 emissions to address ocean acidification; 3) better understanding ocean-based mitigation; and 4) pursuing oceanbased adaptation. These linkages offer a more complete perspective on the reasons strong climate action is necessary and inform a systematic approach for addressing ocean issues under the Agreement to strengthen climate mitigation and adaptation.
1. Introduction The Paris Agreement of 2015 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015) represented a substantial success in climate diplomacy, with all Parties agreeing to prepare, maintain, communicate, and periodically update national plans to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Tollefson and Weiss, 2015). It is increasingly clear, however, that countries’ current level of ambition will still moderately or highly endanger the climate system. Even with the most optimistic outcome of only 1.5–2.0 °C warming, substantial impacts to land, atmosphere, and ocean that are irreversible over millennia are expected (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018). With respect to the ocean in particular, climate warming goals of 1.5–2 °C are too high to sustain the quality and abundance of many ocean ecosystems and services (Gattuso et al., 2015; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). Without heightened ambition, impacts to ocean systems will be grave. For instance, coral reefs will decline dramatically—up to 90 percent—with only 1.5 °C of warming (Schleussner et al., 2016). In addition to warming, the ocean is experiencing loss of oxygen, ocean acidification, overfishing, and pollution, and these drivers interact in
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frequently nonlinear ways (Crain et al., 2008). Combined stressors may lead to tipping points that could dramatically alter the ocean’s composition and benefits in ways for which life on Earth (especially humanity) is unprepared (Jackson, 2008). The connections among ocean stressors and impacts have been assessed since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report in 1990, providing an increasingly clear picture of present and likely future ocean conditions, and just how critical ocean systems are for sustaining life and human wellbeing on Earth (e.g., Fourth National Climate Assessment, 2018; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018; Pachauri et al., 2014). Consideration of ocean issues via international processes is advancing, including in the negotiation of a treaty addressing biological diversity beyond national jurisdiction (Leary, 2019) and in the development by the International Maritime Organization of limits on emissions from maritime shipping (Chircop et al., 2018). The international community of ocean actors, including but not limited to those who contributed to collective statements such as (Cicin-Sain et al., 2016; Pitta e Cunha et al., 2018; Stocker, Thomas, 2015; Visbeck, 2018), has been instrumental in raising the profile of the ocean generally in the global climate effort and
Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (S.R. Cooley).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101968 Received 2 February 2019; Received in revised form 23 May 2019; Accepted 11 August 2019 0959-3780/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Table 1 Summary of linkages between scientific evidence and climate agreement opportunities. Linkage To protect the ocean, Parties must increase climate ambition, including through sustainable ocean-based mitigation.
Parties should focus on CO2 reductions in addition to GHG reductions generally, which will doubly benefit the ocean by addressing both warming and acidification. Parties should understand and protect CO2 storage by the ocean through its chemistry and ecosystems.
Parties should pursue sustainable ocean-based adaptation strategies.
Broad Solution more weight to climate impacts to the ocean and its services when formulating and • Give implementing climate goals and formally acknowledge this connection • Recognize consider the interrelationships among ocean ecosystems, climate goals, and • Explicitly other non-climate anthropogenic drivers that are likely to complicate mitigation efforts. CO emissions within the array of GHGs. • Decrease “acidification avoidance targets” when setting emissions reduction targets. • Set that global warming potential is not the only global change-relevant aspect • Acknowledge of GHGs. international and domestic actions to conserve and restore ocean and coastal • Pursue carbon sinks within a science-based, precautionary approach. Key actions include, but 2
• • • • • •
are not limited to, protection and restoration of blue carbon habitats and their associated food webs, establishment of marine protected areas and reserves and reduction of other unsustainable, anthropogenic stressors on marine and coastal ecosystems. Reinforce protection of the high seas to safeguard the ocean’s capacity to store carbon. Include information on the status of ocean sinks in global assessments of progress to date and to come. Understand major controls on ocean carbon export flux. Implement a diverse portfolio of sustainable adaptation measures that maximize benefits and co-benefits and integrate equity and cost considerations. Incorporate sustainable ocean-related adaptation as an integral part of adaptation discussions and communications. Support research on primary benefits and co-benefits of ocean-related adaptation measures.
emission or carbon accounting systems, thereby also leaving them largely out of mitigation planning (Howard et al., 2017; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, 2013). In another example, the UNFCCC’s evolving rules on carbon accounting and monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) do not mention the ocean at all (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2014).
urging specific consideration of the oceanic consequences of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, especially ocean acidification (Billé et al., 2013; Gattuso et al., 2018, 2015; Harrould-Kolieb and Herr, 2012; Herr et al., 2014; Magnan et al., 2015). In a major step forward, ocean acidification was accepted as a slow onset event in 2010 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2011), increasing the likelihood that it will be considered in future climate negotiation. More recently, ocean acidification was included as a target of Sustainable Development Goal 14.3 in 2016 (United Nations General Assembly, 2017) and as one of the WMO’s Global Climate Indicators in 2018 (World Meteorological Organization, 2018), elevating its status to an issue in need of coordinated international attention. In addition, the coming UN Ocean Decade provides an opportunity to enhance the link between the ocean and the future that humanity wants (Visbeck, 2018). More progress is needed, however, to integrate ocean issues into the global climate effort—and therefore into the processes and context of the Paris Agreement, which is now the world’s primary framework for addressing climate change internationally. As the ocean is by definition part of the climate system (Article 2, United Nations, 1992), the impacts that the ocean experiences from climate change fall squarely within the jurisdiction of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is the Paris Agreement’s umbrella treaty. Moreover, the mitigation and adaptation solutions that the ocean can provide make ocean issues directly relevant to the goals of the Agreement. Since the negotiation of the Agreement, some Parties have increasingly focused on the ocean in developing their national climate policies under the Agreement, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Adaptation Communications. This encouraging step should be imitated: all Parties should take climate impacts to the ocean and its services into account when formulating and implementing their climate goals. However, developing meaningful mitigation- or adaptation-focused ocean commitments remains challenging. Although “ocean acidification” appeared in many nations’ NDCs by 2017, these references described few solutions beyond research and education (Gallo et al., 2017). Many ocean impacts, like acidification, are hard to attribute to specific nations or address under the UNFCCC framework because they occur in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) (HardenDavies, 2016). In addition, uncertainty about how to measure and influence ocean and coastal sinks has led to excluding them from most
2. The ocean as a key to enhanced climate ambition The framing provided in this paper provides a systematic approach for how countries can include ocean-climate linkages in the framework of the Paris Agreement to strengthen both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Profound benefits to human communities will follow from protecting marine ecosystems from climate change, and this has repeatedly been articulated in numerous high-level syntheses (e.g. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2018; Pachauri et al., 2014). In addition, safeguarding marine ecosystems from climate change has co-benefits well beyond the climate mitigation and adaptation space. For example, losses of marine ecosystem services could hinder achievement of global development, including in particular the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (Neumann et al., 2015) related to food, health, and livelihoods (SDGs 1, 2, 3, 8, 9), development of equitable communities that are prepared for the future (SDGs 5, 8–13, 16), and protection of a functioning ocean (SDG 14) (Pecl et al., 2017). It is notable that progress in ocean-climate integration is possible not only in the context of individual NDCs but also in the context of collective action and the Paris process. Overall GHG mitigation ambitions fall short of addressing risks to ocean ecosystem function, and they do not fully address highly likely and well-documented changes like sea level rise, storm surge, and species shifts (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014). Specific steps can be taken now, however, to better incorporate the ocean in the international effort to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change and thereby strengthen the overall outcomes. 3. What is needed now To address these gaps and align scientific insights with the 2
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accounting for GHG emissions in a way that is “ocean correct” (i.e., one that considers both warming and acidification potentials) would help address the growing risk to the ocean from CO2 emissions. Parties can act on this linkage by seeking to decrease CO2 emissions in particular, within the array of GHGs, and should reflect this aim in both their NDCs and the Global Stocktake. Parties could ask the IPCC or another international expert body to develop an “ocean impact scale” for main greenhouse gases, to assess the relative ocean impact of CO2 and other GHGs. This would aid Parties in setting “acidification avoidance targets” for CO2 alongside general GHG reduction targets. Doing so would acknowledge that global warming potential is not the only aspect of an atmospherically emitted gas that is relevant to planetary change. Cutting CO2 with the aim of mitigating ocean acidification has the added benefit of a faster response time than for atmospheric warming, as well.
international climate regime, we outline four ocean-climate linkages, each of which calls for a distinct set of responses by the Parties to the Paris Agreement (Table 1). 1) To protect the ocean, Parties must accelerate climate ambition. This point has repeatedly been made in ocean-focused research products and syntheses, where climate impacts on the ocean are front and center (e.g., (Cicin-Sain et al., 2016)), but it is still too often overlooked in climate forums. Acting on this linkage could involve a number of steps. Implementing Parties’ existing mitigation-related commitments is clearly the first step, followed by enhancing Parties’ mitigation-related ambition in the near term. The recently finalized Paris “rulebook” does help promote ambition through development of a robust transparency framework for reporting and review. It is notable that increased ambition could also include ocean-related measures such as promoting generation of renewable energy from the ocean by capturing its winds, heat, wave, and tidal energy, as well as protection and restoration of coastal “blue carbon” ecosystems. Non-Party stakeholders such as subnational governments and businesses could contribute by taking robust action on mitigation as well. Groups and Parties that are aware of the ocean-climate link can continue to increase awareness, including through partnering with groups of Parties such as the High-Ambition Coalition, and countries and blocs that have promoted ambition, such as small-island developing states.
1) Parties should understand and protect ocean ecosystem-based CO2 storage The ocean is the Earth’s largest carbon sink, taking up a net 2.4 Pg C yr−1 from anthropogenic CO2 emissions and holding ˜39,000 Pg C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013) via a combination of chemical and biological processes. The “biological pump” adds substantially to the ocean’s carbon storage capacity by carrying 15 Pg C yr−1 to the deep sea, where cold temperatures and high pressures store much dissolved CO2 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013). But ocean CO2 uptake is decreasing as seawater becomes warmer and more carbon-saturated (Khatiwala et al., 2009; Sabine et al., 2004), with continued decreases expected (DeVries et al., 2017; Wanninkhof et al., 2013). At the same time, coastal “blue carbon” stocks such as mangroves, marshlands, and seagrasses have significant mitigation potential but are under threat from development. Loss of these habitats would result in the release of large amounts of stored carbon; indeed, current estimates of annual CO2 release from converted and degraded blue carbon habitats are 0.15–1.02 GT, or up to the equivalent of nearly 20% of the total annual emissions from global deforestation (Pendleton et al., 2012). To act on this linkage, parties could pursue scientific and policy measures to understand and protect ocean and coastal carbon sinks. Research will help identify the major controls on the ocean carbon
1) Parties should focus on CO2 reductions specifically in addition to GHG reductions generally, in order to doubly benefit the ocean. All GHGs drive atmospheric and planetary surface warming, and therefore radiatively active anthropogenic gases (colloquially, GHGs) have been considered collectively in the UN climate regime since the outset. Because the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of non−CO2 GHGs is significantly higher than that of CO2, Parties may address climate targets by focusing on non−CO2 GHGs such as methane. However, because anthropogenic CO2 creates an acid upon dissolution in water, preferentially cutting non−CO2 GHG emissions and leaving CO2 emissions unchecked leaves the ocean at increasing risk of acidification (Billé et al., 2013) (Fig. 1). Reconsidering and appropriately
Fig. 1. Average proportional contributions of different radiatively active anthropogenic gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, and “F-gas”, or fluorinated gases) to total GHG emissions from 2004 to 2015 (from CAIT Climate Data Explorer; http://cait.wri.org/) and where they build up in the Earth system (ocean, land, atmosphere, or unknown/unattributed). Gases that stay in the atmosphere contribute to planetary warming (bright red arc), whereas CO2 that dissolves in the ocean contributes to ocean acidification (dark red arc) (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article).
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export flux modulated by the biological carbon pump (see, e.g., (Honjo et al., 2014)) as well as limits on the ocean’s ability to continue taking up atmospheric CO2 by dissolution (Cooley et al., 2018). Cooperative, broad-based pilot projects to conserve, protect, and restore both blue carbon stocks and ocean carbon sinks, via establishing marine protected areas and reserves or other area-based management measures (Waycott et al., 2009), and reducing other unsustainable anthropogenic stressors on marine and coastal ecosystems, would also contribute substantially to assessing where efforts can be most effectively dedicated. Policy measures are also needed to ensure the Global Stocktake includes accounting and reporting on carbon sinks (from open-ocean environments to coastal blue carbon stocks). This may require prioritizing research into the biological ocean carbon pump and carbon sinks as part of the U.N. Ocean Decade or other initiatives. Another priority action is to reinforce protection of the high seas, including through the development of a new international instrument on the conservation of biological diversity in ABNJ, as a means to safeguard the ocean’s capacity to store carbon (Bailey, 2018; O’Leary and Roberts, 2017).
protect, and restore coastal blue carbon ecosystems, for example, for the sake of coastal resilience. Parties can also ensure that the Global Stocktake covers ocean-related adaptation in overall commentary about adaptation. It’s important to stress that the Paris Agreement recognizes that co-benefits from ocean adaptation actions can contribute to mitigation outcomes. Lastly, financing of ocean-related climate actions should be assured within the UNFCCC’s financial mechanisms. 4. Conclusion Most nations have a coastline and benefit directly from some level of ocean livelihoods and harvests; all nations benefit from the climate modulation services the ocean currently provides. Without keeping the ocean carbon sink functional, the climate crisis cannot be solved, and the ocean will not remain functional at the currently forecasted carbon emissions trajectory. Greater ambition is essential; the future of a habitable planet depends on it. Considering the ocean throughout climate negotiations in the above-mentioned ways provides a roadmap for how to more comprehensively address climate change and secure a sustainable future for the ocean and the planet.
1) Parties should pursue sustainable ocean-based adaptation strategies
Acknowledgments
Healthy marine ecosystems protect our communities and economies from extreme weather and other environmental impacts. Conservation of mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass beds, for example, helps reduce the impact of severe storms and rising seas (Powell et al., 2019; Spalding et al., 2014). In addition, protecting key habitats for important life stages of many marine species including fish may safeguard some food provision services of ocean ecosystems despite looming changes: Moore et al. (2008) project that nutrient redistribution due to changing ocean physics will lead to possible declines in fisheries yields of 60% in the North Atlantic and 20% globally (Moore et al., 2018a,2018b). Given that the global fisheries production from marine capture and aquaculture totaled 171 tonnes in 2016, and together with inland fisheries provided about 20.3 kg person−1 to the global food supply (FAO, 2018), disruption of just wild-capture fisheries via ocean climate change represents a serious threat to the Sustainable Development Goals (Pecl et al., 2017). Many anthropogenic stressors drive additional ocean change. These include, but are not limited to, overfishing and other unsustainable exploitation of marine resources, habitat degradation, and pollution and nutrient runoff. Reducing these stressors may have the secondary effect of enhancing the ocean’s capacity to absorb the impacts of climate change by protecting overall ecosystem resilience (Visbeck, 2018). For instance, shipping regulations that slow steaming speeds provide both a conservation benefit by reducing coastal pollution, noise, and ship strikes, and the major co-benefit of reducing CO2 emissions (Mander, 2017; Moore et al., 2018a,2018b; Smith et al., 2015). An acidification-specific benefit of reducing overall shipping emissions is reduction of sulfur and nitrogen oxide release (SOx and NOx), which can additionally acidify nearby waters (Doney et al., 2007; Hassellöv et al., 2013; Hunter et al., 2011; Turner et al., 2018). Likewise, reduction of coastal drivers such as acidifying pollution is anticipated to improve coastal ecosystem resilience, allowing nearshore populations to endure CO2-driven acidification better (Kelly et al., 2011). Acting on this linkage via policy measures again requires both supporting science and ensuring that policies incorporate this oceanfocused information. Improving Parties’ understanding of the role of the ocean in their national adaptation plans starts with better scientific research, coordinated to focus on the primary benefits and co-benefits of sustainable ocean-related adaptation measures (Miller et al., 2018). Coastal countries that submit Adaptation Communications can address ocean and coastal issues, especially since some of the most pressing needs will be in the coastal areas where 40% of the global population lives (Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center, 2019). Parties that include adaptation in their NDCs can include measures to conserve,
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