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Overview and comparison of long-term forecasting techniques for a fast developing utility: part I
17 Energy (supplies, policy, economics, forecasts) extended to allow for exogenous tax analysis. Two types of environmental taxes, one on the sulphur content of fuels and the other on the level of emissions, are exogenously included in the model as alternative instruments to mitigate pollution. Next, the base model is modified to endogenize pollution abatement. This has been achieved by incorporating a preference rate, depending on an index of emissions, into the utility function. Finally, the emission index and emission tax are taken as substitutes and modelled within a CES form to endogenize the emission tax. Results for all cases, obtained with Turkish data, are discussed. It is found that a tax on SOz emissions is more effective in reducing SOz emissions than a tax applied on the sulphur content of fuels. It is also found that a gradually increasing tax is more effective in reducing emissions than a constant tax.
02/02277 Kong
Energy use in commercial buildings in Hong
Yu, P. C. H. and Chow, W. K. Applied Energy, 2001, 69, (4), 243-255. The energy performances of 20 commercial buildings, covering the common types found in Hong Kong, have been studied. The monthly electricity billing data as well as the results from computer modelling were analysed. Energy signatures for the commercial buildings were found by a method similar to PRISM. Correlation equations of energy use with building envelope parameters, such as OTTV, building size, envelope heat gain, and the annual chiller-load were derived. The results are useful for building envelope design, energy audit, and legislative control of energy use in commercial buildings.
The problems of fuel insufficiency, over-exploitation of biomass resources and poor reliability and quality of energy services available to the rural masses of the India continues despite numerous initiatives by the government. These initiatives have largely been in the form of national level rural and renewable energy programmes aimed at improving people's quality of life and reducing the existing pressure on the natural resource base. The programrnes have met with limited success on account of several reasons. One of these is the absence of a mechanism for ensuring the genuine participation of the local inhabitants. With this weakness in mind, the Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI) and the University of Waterloo (UW) undertook a joint research project (1994-1997), aimed at developing participatory planning and intervention design methodologies and tools to facilitate public participation and feature a meaningful role for women in rural energy planning. This papers present the policy implications and recommendations of the work.
02/02282 Strategic cogeneration - fresh horizons for the development of cogeneration in Brazil Szklo, A. S. and Tolmasquim, M. T. Apph'ed Energy, 2001,69, (4), 257268. An earlier study assessed the economic feasibility of gas-fired cogeneration systems in Brazil and indicated that the use of cogeneration in Brazilian malls tends to be small in the short-term. However, current experience is opening up the possibility of investments in cogeueration plants - despite their lack of economic feasibility as part of the strategic actions of utilities in the energy market. The earlier study made no attempt to analyse this possibility, focusing solely on economic feasibility. This article supplements its predecessor by analysing a type of cogeneration rated as strategic. This is a recent phenomenon prompted by the deregulation of Brazil's energy market. Within this new context, power utilities are taking up a defensive behaviour as they battle to preserve their markets, in parallel to aggressive behaviours designed to expand and diversify their activities. This means that they may well invest in cogeneration for strategic reasons that may not be clearly reflected through an economicfeasibility assessment. -
02/02278 Korean energy demand in the new millennium: outlook and policy implications, 2000-2005 Kim, S. H. et al. Energy Policy, 2001, 29, (11), 899-910. This paper examines dynamic conditions surrounding South Korean energy demand upon entering the new millennium. Korean energy consumption grew very rapidly during the 1990s, but was hit severely by financial crisis of 1997 and is again rapidly recovering. Our aim in this paper is to review the recent trends and make projections for the near future. After reviewing the 1990s, we present forecasts on energy demand for 2000-2005. We also present scenario analysis where the best and the worst case scenarios are discussed.
02/02279 On the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon: co-integration and error-correction models Badr, E. A. and Nasr, G. E. Int. J. Energy Res., 2001, 25, (12), [0331042. This paper investigates the relationship the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon. The study is performed in two periods. The first period extends from 1992 to 1996 when power rationing was implemented. The second period extends from 1997 to 1999 when rationing was drastically reduced. Also, each period is divided into a winter and a summer season. In the first period, climate factors such as temperature, relative humidity and clearness index are found not to influence the electrical energy consumption due to widespread rationing and the regression coefficient shows inconsistencies and are not in the anticipated direction. In the second period, temperature has a signation effect on electrical energy consumption in the summer season, while this effect is not apparent in the winter. Also, the relative humidity and clearness index coefficients are found to be negative for the winter season and positive for the summer season. Furthermore, two co-integration tests show that the variables are co-integration indicating the existence of long run relationships among them. The short run relationships are also estimated through error correction models.
02/02280 Overview and comparison of long-term forecasting techniques for a fast developing utility: part I Kandil, M. S. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2001, 58, (I), 1117. The intrinsic uncertainties associated with demand forecasting become more acute when it is required to provide an invaluable dimension to the decision-making process in a period characterized by fast and dynamic changes. In this paper, estimates of the peak demand, pertaining to a typical fast growing system with inherit dynamic load characteristics, and also a normal developing system, is derived from the classical long-term forecasting methods. These demand estimates are compared with corresponding actual values. Then, a proposed model based on demand characteristics of fast developing utility is obtained to yield best fit. Afterwards improved modelling of the system load characteristics using a knowledge-based expert system, described in a companion paper, will demonstrate better forecasts compared with forecasts obtained by direct applications of classical techniques.
02/02281 Participatory rural energy planning in India a policy context Neudoerffer, R. C. et aL Energy Policy, 2001, 29, (5), 371-381.
294
Fuel and Energy Abstracts July 2002
02/02283 The implementation of long-term forecasting strategies using a knowledge-based expert system: Part II Kandil, M. S. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2001, 58, (I), 1925. In this paper, a knowledge-based expert system (ES) is implemented to support the choice of the most suitable load forecasting model, among traditional mathematical techniques of Part I, for medium/long-term power system planning. In the proposed ES, the detailed problem statement including forecasting algorithms and the key variables that affect the demand forecasts are firstly identified. So, system planner establishes a multitude of electrical, non-electrical variables for different areas. A set of decision rules relating these variables are then established and stored in the knowledge base. With the knowledge based at hand, a list of realistic models that can reflect accurately the typical system behaviour over other models is emulated. Then, the best one is suggested to produce the annual load forecast. A practical application is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed prototype.
02/02284
The Kentucky Pioneer Energy Project
Bailey, R. A. Proceedings - Annual International Pittsburgh Coal ConJerence, 2000, (17), 121-128. The Kentucky Pioneer Energy is the new Global energy 540 MW Advanced Fuel Technology-Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (AFT-IGCC) Project. With support from the US Department of Energy (US DOE) Clean Coal Technological Program, this project includes a state-of-the-art energy facility utilizing coal and renewablebased fuels along with advanced gasification technology to deliver efficient and environmentally superior power generation and coproduction, capabilities. The Kentucky Pioneer Energy Project, is described along with the involvement of the US DOE Clean Coal Technological Program, and the current status of the project development.
02/02285
The uses of energy in the domestic sector
Andrade, J. A. Energy and Buihtings, 2001, 33, (6), 525 529. Energy consumption in the domestic sector is influenced by the level of the user's living standards. Moreover, the general ignorance of the energy services that make up most of the energy bill does not permit concerted action to rationalize energy use. In order to contribute to a better understanding of energy consumption and use in the domestic sector, three households were monitored. This paper sets out the results of this study and discusses these results produced from the monitoring of energy use over a period of 1 year of household use.
02/02277 Kong
Energy use in commercial buildings in Hong
Yu, P. C. H. and Chow, W. K. Applied Energy, 2001, 69, (4), 243-255. The energy performances of 20 commercial buildings, covering the common types found in Hong Kong, have been studied. The monthly electricity billing data as well as the results from computer modelling were analysed. Energy signatures for the commercial buildings were found by a method similar to PRISM. Correlation equations of energy use with building envelope parameters, such as OTTV, building size, envelope heat gain, and the annual chiller-load were derived. The results are useful for building envelope design, energy audit, and legislative control of energy use in commercial buildings.
The problems of fuel insufficiency, over-exploitation of biomass resources and poor reliability and quality of energy services available to the rural masses of the India continues despite numerous initiatives by the government. These initiatives have largely been in the form of national level rural and renewable energy programmes aimed at improving people's quality of life and reducing the existing pressure on the natural resource base. The programrnes have met with limited success on account of several reasons. One of these is the absence of a mechanism for ensuring the genuine participation of the local inhabitants. With this weakness in mind, the Tata Energy Research Institute (TERI) and the University of Waterloo (UW) undertook a joint research project (1994-1997), aimed at developing participatory planning and intervention design methodologies and tools to facilitate public participation and feature a meaningful role for women in rural energy planning. This papers present the policy implications and recommendations of the work.
02/02282 Strategic cogeneration - fresh horizons for the development of cogeneration in Brazil Szklo, A. S. and Tolmasquim, M. T. Apph'ed Energy, 2001,69, (4), 257268. An earlier study assessed the economic feasibility of gas-fired cogeneration systems in Brazil and indicated that the use of cogeneration in Brazilian malls tends to be small in the short-term. However, current experience is opening up the possibility of investments in cogeueration plants - despite their lack of economic feasibility as part of the strategic actions of utilities in the energy market. The earlier study made no attempt to analyse this possibility, focusing solely on economic feasibility. This article supplements its predecessor by analysing a type of cogeneration rated as strategic. This is a recent phenomenon prompted by the deregulation of Brazil's energy market. Within this new context, power utilities are taking up a defensive behaviour as they battle to preserve their markets, in parallel to aggressive behaviours designed to expand and diversify their activities. This means that they may well invest in cogeneration for strategic reasons that may not be clearly reflected through an economicfeasibility assessment. -
02/02278 Korean energy demand in the new millennium: outlook and policy implications, 2000-2005 Kim, S. H. et al. Energy Policy, 2001, 29, (11), 899-910. This paper examines dynamic conditions surrounding South Korean energy demand upon entering the new millennium. Korean energy consumption grew very rapidly during the 1990s, but was hit severely by financial crisis of 1997 and is again rapidly recovering. Our aim in this paper is to review the recent trends and make projections for the near future. After reviewing the 1990s, we present forecasts on energy demand for 2000-2005. We also present scenario analysis where the best and the worst case scenarios are discussed.
02/02279 On the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon: co-integration and error-correction models Badr, E. A. and Nasr, G. E. Int. J. Energy Res., 2001, 25, (12), [0331042. This paper investigates the relationship the relationship between electrical energy consumption and climate factors in Lebanon. The study is performed in two periods. The first period extends from 1992 to 1996 when power rationing was implemented. The second period extends from 1997 to 1999 when rationing was drastically reduced. Also, each period is divided into a winter and a summer season. In the first period, climate factors such as temperature, relative humidity and clearness index are found not to influence the electrical energy consumption due to widespread rationing and the regression coefficient shows inconsistencies and are not in the anticipated direction. In the second period, temperature has a signation effect on electrical energy consumption in the summer season, while this effect is not apparent in the winter. Also, the relative humidity and clearness index coefficients are found to be negative for the winter season and positive for the summer season. Furthermore, two co-integration tests show that the variables are co-integration indicating the existence of long run relationships among them. The short run relationships are also estimated through error correction models.
02/02280 Overview and comparison of long-term forecasting techniques for a fast developing utility: part I Kandil, M. S. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2001, 58, (I), 1117. The intrinsic uncertainties associated with demand forecasting become more acute when it is required to provide an invaluable dimension to the decision-making process in a period characterized by fast and dynamic changes. In this paper, estimates of the peak demand, pertaining to a typical fast growing system with inherit dynamic load characteristics, and also a normal developing system, is derived from the classical long-term forecasting methods. These demand estimates are compared with corresponding actual values. Then, a proposed model based on demand characteristics of fast developing utility is obtained to yield best fit. Afterwards improved modelling of the system load characteristics using a knowledge-based expert system, described in a companion paper, will demonstrate better forecasts compared with forecasts obtained by direct applications of classical techniques.
02/02281 Participatory rural energy planning in India a policy context Neudoerffer, R. C. et aL Energy Policy, 2001, 29, (5), 371-381.
294
Fuel and Energy Abstracts July 2002
02/02283 The implementation of long-term forecasting strategies using a knowledge-based expert system: Part II Kandil, M. S. et al. Electric Power Systems Research, 2001, 58, (I), 1925. In this paper, a knowledge-based expert system (ES) is implemented to support the choice of the most suitable load forecasting model, among traditional mathematical techniques of Part I, for medium/long-term power system planning. In the proposed ES, the detailed problem statement including forecasting algorithms and the key variables that affect the demand forecasts are firstly identified. So, system planner establishes a multitude of electrical, non-electrical variables for different areas. A set of decision rules relating these variables are then established and stored in the knowledge base. With the knowledge based at hand, a list of realistic models that can reflect accurately the typical system behaviour over other models is emulated. Then, the best one is suggested to produce the annual load forecast. A practical application is given to demonstrate the usefulness of the developed prototype.
02/02284
The Kentucky Pioneer Energy Project
Bailey, R. A. Proceedings - Annual International Pittsburgh Coal ConJerence, 2000, (17), 121-128. The Kentucky Pioneer Energy is the new Global energy 540 MW Advanced Fuel Technology-Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (AFT-IGCC) Project. With support from the US Department of Energy (US DOE) Clean Coal Technological Program, this project includes a state-of-the-art energy facility utilizing coal and renewablebased fuels along with advanced gasification technology to deliver efficient and environmentally superior power generation and coproduction, capabilities. The Kentucky Pioneer Energy Project, is described along with the involvement of the US DOE Clean Coal Technological Program, and the current status of the project development.
02/02285
The uses of energy in the domestic sector
Andrade, J. A. Energy and Buihtings, 2001, 33, (6), 525 529. Energy consumption in the domestic sector is influenced by the level of the user's living standards. Moreover, the general ignorance of the energy services that make up most of the energy bill does not permit concerted action to rationalize energy use. In order to contribute to a better understanding of energy consumption and use in the domestic sector, three households were monitored. This paper sets out the results of this study and discusses these results produced from the monitoring of energy use over a period of 1 year of household use.