Past, present and future

4959-4984

Past, present and future Industry leaders reviewand preview the changingshape of computing, from the first issue of

Data Processing, 25 years ago

HAROLD GEARING

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he twenty fifth anniversary of the first issue of Data Processing finds a very different scene from that of 1959. In the thirty years preceding 1959, banks, large companies and local authorities had installed mechanized accounting and punchedcard systems. Yet, there was little published on data processing, except in the manufacturers’ literature, an occasional article in a professional journal and chapters in some later editions of accounting textbooks. In 1949, Pitman published Office Organization and Methods by Mills and Standingford. The book was based on the authors’ experience at J Lyons & Co., where the first UK electronic office (LEO) was being developed. Ten years later, the setting up of the UK O&M Training Council led to publication of Milward’s Organization and Methods; the formation of the British Computer Society led to the Computer Bulletin, and Computer Journal for specialists; and a number of symposia were held where early users of computers for business DP described their experiences. In the Spring of 1959, planning for EDP was in progress in many large Harold Gearing was the founder joint-editor of

Computer Journal and is now retired.

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organizations and by June 1960, a survey carried out by the author showed that about 85 data processing machines had been installed in the UK. However, several companies found that the machines did not come up to their expectations. Even when the most advanced machine available had been purchased, users still had to contribute from their own practical experience to software and hardware development, as well as protheir specific applications in gram machine code. The need to prepare all data into punched cards or tape for batch processing, so as not to hold up the new massive installations, meant as much work at the beginning of each accounting cycle as with the older systems of mechanized accounting. Multiprogramming had been discussed theoretically by the late Stanley Gill in 1958 (Computer Journal, vol I, no I) and was demonstrated working on the Orion in Manchester in December 1962. Multiaccess by several users began with work by the Keydata corporation in USA a couple of years later, providing a service bureau system with direct access to user files held centrally. Those manufacturers such as Ferranti, who had recognized early the importance of good operating systems, provided Continued on page 45

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ooking back into our past generates some interesting thoughts, mainly wondering why people choose to join organizations like the IDPM and how the position of the DP manager has changed. The Institute of Data Processing Management was formed when the UK Data Association Processing Management (formed in 1966) merged with the Institute of Data Processing (IDP). The merger took plac’e in April 1978. Since then, the professional membership of the new

It

may seem that, thanks to computer and telecommunications technology, the next 25 years upon which Data Processing will report will speed by at a greater pace, with personal computers and fifth generation languages bringing computer power to the people. It is, of course, a safe bet to assume that there will be many changes in the size, speed and sophistication of computers in the office, in the factory and at home. Yet, in taking a more refined look at what has happened during the past 25 years as well as predicting what will happen in the next 25 years, it is apparent that business and society are ‘getting the hang’ of computers and are applying them in ways that eclipse the traditional labour-saving benefit of automation. For the most part, this is occurring because business is managing its information resource much like its other resources. For example, computer-aided design and engineering operations (CAD) and computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) systems in the immediate past were the exclusive domain of computer scientists, technicians and engineers in large corporations. Yet, as the size and price tag of these systems moved downward, their use increased. And what has happened? Computer power has come to line managers and smaller businesses - and instead of having people run away in fear of computer technology, executives, managers and workers are embracing the benefits of computers. Of course, the bottomline is positive when you measure the ratios of output per manhours using design CAD/CAM versus the manual methods.

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body has grown from 2500 to 5000 and the annual intake of students is very nearly five times what it was and the rate of expansion is quite difficult to control. There is a major trend in the growth of the IDPM which reflects the changing role and position of the DP manager. The more senior DP managers are choosing to join the Institute and a survey carried out in 1983 shows that on average IDPM members have 14 years experience. For the 76% who have authority over expenditure, their average annual budget is &1281000 or almost f5OOOM for the membership as a whole. Such senior managers are beginning to realize the importance of becoming a member of a professional body, which not only in-

creases their status but also provides practical help and guidance in the struggle to keep up to date with the ongoing changes in technology. While many of the original members of IDPM joined without fulfilling any DP examination requirement, the position is now fast changing and by 1990 virtually noone will begin to work full-time with computer-based devices unless they have completed a course of study. Although I have long taken the view that we in data processing are not (yet) in a profession, with the extension of examinations and the increasing commitment of senior managers, it would seem that the professionalization of data processing is nearing completion. 0

However, as the Arthur D Little computer integrated manufacturing research group points out in a recent report: ‘One must also remember that the ultimate purpose of these systems is not to produce more engineering output in less time, but to produce a higher-quality, more costeffective end product’. That same philosophy is being followed elsewhere - from the law office using word processing systems with sophisticated legal WP packages to an automobile manufacturer upgrading its numerical control devices, to microcomputers and robotics on the assembly floor. Here are a few trends that will drive a number of changes in the coming years: Fifth generation languages - Unique operating systems, some of which have been in existence for a number of years, will make current hardware more acceptable for use by more people. Complementing that, packaged software will continue its strong growth, especially in markets so small or unique that computers were not used previously. Local area networks - If information is a resource, then it has to be shared, stored and processed by a multitude of people in an organization. Computers and terminals must be tied together in some way. The way chosen will, in many respects, determine how we conduct business (and at what cost) in the future. Here is an area which has been developed more extensively by our European colleagues. Database - Only two years ago, some computer experts were saying that there will not be real benefits for many years to come in establishing key databases in a company; and, in fact, there may be reasons not to - including security concerns. Today, database management systems are in place at a growing number of companies, and DBMS is being tailored for the small business, too.

The microcomputer -- There is no doubt that the microcomputer ((in the form of a small business system, a personal computer, a smart terminal or a portable) has been the most effective manifestation of the computer revolution. It is also fairly apparent that the microcomputer will also be among the last of the revolutionary tools as this technological breakthrough allows almost everyone in a business to automate to some degree. At the same time that this rush of technology is coming into the business office and home, people must understand the impact of computers and must manage these machines to their benefit. This is where the Data Processing Management Association, and where publications such as Data Processing play key roles. And this is where the computer will rise or fall in helping society to progress. The historic lessons are there. During the first industrial revolution, the Luddites in England cried out against application of technology where it harmed the workers and adversely impacted the quality of life. Today, during our information revolution, the concerns of workers and society are being faced, from the fear of loss of jobs to health concerns, from the fear of invasion of privacy to nationalism. We will do a better job of it today because we have come to a basic conclusion - that people are the most important part of the ‘man-machine’ interface. The dangers and rewards embedded within are immense. Yet, the results are important to the long-term life of companies using computers, to schools teaching with computers, to laboratories fighting disease and hunger with computer tools. As machines finally become the servants of people, I find this to be an exciting time - that excitement should be shared with everyone just as the potential perils are known by everyone. 0

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he passing of a 25th anniversary quite naturally calls for celebration, and I am delighted to be able to contribute not only my congratulations to Data Processing but also some reflections on this milestone. Twenty five years of this publication parallels the birth and growth of the industry. It is almost as long as IBM United Kingdom has been established. Looking back at the first issue brings home just how dif~cult it is to forecast the future, for there is hardly a hint in the columns of that issue of the revolution that has hit computing in the past few years. But, with just a glance over my shoulder at those early years, I want to suggest some of the issues which I think will be important for the next 25 years. In the life of this magazine, the computer has changed from a large expensive machine used only by big businesses to a small but equally powerful device well within the range of small businesses and, increasingly, the individual. For 25 years it has been one long success story: speed up, capacity up, costs down.

Cquarter of a century of recording the growth of the computer industry. The ongratulations

to Data Processing on a

developments and technological advances achieved in these 25 years have been such that even the most innovative of our computer pioneers could not have foreseen the central role that computers now play in all areas of society. Now, however, we understand more clearly the potential of these machines and how they can benefit the community. Looking to the future, the changes that are to come will be even more rapid than those of the first decades of the computer age. We live in a world of rapid change

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It would be easy to highlight the innocence of the industry of 25 years ago and its inability to forecast the explosion in computing and information technology with the spread of the micro. Easy, because in hindsight the machines and facilities of those days were clumsy by today’s standards. Machines were of large proportions, affordable only by the few and installed in tens rather than hundreds. Certainly, from that standpoint, what came after could only be described as astounding. Today, computers are an everyday part of our lives, with children using micros at school and in the home, and some young people making much money writing games and other software, while still at school. It is possible, from our own homes, to book seats on planes, pay bills, choose goods from a catalogue, conduct business meetings and transmit words, drawings and data to other offices and homes virtually at the touch of a button. In the UK, it has been reported that 12% of our large companies already give their executives the chance to work from home via linked terminal computers and 60% expect to be operating that way within 5 years. However, this may turn out to be a limited development, since going to work is also a social experience and one which many people would not be willing to lose. Unlike other industries, the potential for growth in information technology is virtually limitless. So far this industry has experienced one of the fastest growth rates, and it continues to accelerate. Leib-

nitz said: ‘The present is pregnant with the future. Current developments in micros, speed and costs may spark an explosion in the future’. The data processing professional can no longer rely on having sole control of a business tool that was formerly surrounded in mystique. A recent survey has shown that only a fifth of senior managers feel themselves either too senior or too old to benefit from personal computing, and the proportion is ever decreasing. Demand for workstations in accounting and control, in asset management and in engineering is extensive. The UK leads the world in numbers of personal computers per head of population. But there are many companies without a computer at all, so there’s still an enormous untapped market. In the office, opportunities for automation are largely undeveloped, leaving the prospect of pr~uctivi~ increases of 7% and more a year and the guarantee that the investment will be paid off in 3 years or so as a promise, as yet unfulfilled. In IBM UK we have on average two workstations between three employees in some departments the ratio is one to one. Others will surely follow suit, bringing nearer the day when computer filing and electronic mail are the ‘norm’. This thirst for access to computer power will mean an explosion in the demand for software - a demand offering enormous opportunities for the smaller firm. UK companies have been very good at the development of software, and it has

and nowhere is this more evident than in the computer industry. The ‘traditional’ computer systems the mainframes, memory systems, peripherals and software - will remain with us for a long time, but one of the most ~~rtant developments will be what is referred to as ‘user friendliness’. The information processed by a computer only has value if it can be accessed, manipulated, updated and transmitted by the people who use that data in the course of their everyday business. Any barrier or delay is a negative factor. However, these restrictions are already being swept aside as advanced applications development systems become available. Users’ demands for such ease-of-use systems will continue to grow apace. This is one of the most important areas of development, but there are a number of other, fast-growing markets. These include distributed processing and systems interconnection, personal computers and personal other microcomputing, processor-based products, such as termi-

nals and desktop computers, munications services. From information processing

and com-

to knowledge

We are still at the dawn of the computer revolution - a revolution that will continue to influence the shape of society and the world of business for a long time to come. This revolution involves the transition from information processing to knowledge processing: from computers that calculate and store data to computers that more effectively support the decision making process. Systems with these capabilities will be needed for such projects as factory automation, robotics, production control, software development and CAD/CAM. And the technology on which this is all based is the microprocessor. Microprocessors have already had a dramatic impact in all walks of life. There is a vast range of new products based on standardized chips and customized soft-

data processing

been child which R&D

said that it won’t be long before a will produce a piece of software will pay for the whole of the UK’s in IT fisr many years to come.

Applications

of IT

The applications of information technology are spreading ever wider, to many areas that strain our understanding at the moment. If we take just one example the medical field there are many possibilities for exploiting information technology. IBM’s Science Centre in Winchester has begun to scratch the surface of the potential - but only the surface. We have, for example, been looking at improvements which can be made in chest X-rays, by digital capture, storage, processing and display. Then there is the help which compul.ers can provide for the blind and the deaf. The medical field is still largely untapped and there will be many other areas with similar growth potential. Two other major developments are now appearing which will also have a major impact. The first, the liberalization of our telecommunications system, has now come very close indeed - a liberalization which opens up even more opportunities in the development of entirely new and unforeseen products, services, even industries. Only the United States and the UK have started significantly down this liberalization road, and it does open up a future of change which will make the writer of Data Processing’s 50th anniversary resume comment on today’s state of development with amusement. The opportunities ware which have made computers significantly more reliable, less expensive and easier to use. These trends will continue and the microprocessor will become even more powerful, with, in the near future, a million components on one chip, and, later, new materials offering even greater enhancements. At the same time, computer technology is converging with communications technology, moving us toward the integrated office of the future. This trend will enable us to have smaller office complexes which can be adapted as needs change. And this in turn will have a considerable effect on the design of our cities and our living environment. If we survey today’s world, focusing on the impact of the computer, we can see two trends emerging:

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A decline in the proportion of people who make things, and a rise in the proportion who process information. An estimated 50% of today’s workforce

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which liberalization will create, not just for suppliers but also for the users of information technology, could help jobs and exports. Beyond telecomms liberalization lies

Truly artificial intelligencecapabilityis probably no more than a fond dream the development of what the Japanese call the fifth generation computer. Truly artificial intelligence capability is probably no more than a fond dream, but by the turn of the century the research work could produce some useful spin-offs. Noncoded input of handwriting and speech and better usability could all result. The EEC’s ESPRIT proposals and the Alvey Commission in the UK are also important attempts to keep ahead of new technological developments. But I believe that the successful development of information technology in the future requires international cooperation; in design, in automation, we need to mobilize our resources across international frontiers. Twenty five years ago the computer industry had barely reached infancy: now we stand at adolescence, and the adult world beckons. The skills of computer childhood are not obsolete. The changes in the industry wrought while growing up have been phenomenal. An industry once the preserve of specialists, such as those

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is made up of information processors. An increasing number of automated selfservice machines, such as the bank cash machines, and others which dispense petrol, issue airline tickets, handle car rentals or register hotel guests.

On the horizon, there are innumerable new technological advances. Many of these may emerge from the field of artificial intelligence and expert systems, both of which depend to a great extent on microprocessor technology. Artificial intelligence is already performing tasks that once required human intelligence: diagnosing diseases, locating mineral deposits, and deciding where to drill oil wells. Experts believe that it is only a matter of time before ‘thinking’ computers open up new applications in offices, factories and homes. The expert system is now the leading edge of applied artificial intelligence. Dozens of these systems have been built,

who read Data Processing, now belongs to everyone. That does not mean that data processing specialists will disappear. New demands, including the need to use specialist expertise for making computer products vastly more usable will grow. The challenge lies in transforming a professional specialization to embrace the ‘computers for all’ society. That transformation means a major effort by this industry to play a more participative role in education. There are many dimensions to this initiative, not the least of which is the need to harness academic research more closely to mutual advantage. Furthermore, if the next generation is to be in touch with the information technology society, I believe industry needs to become more involved in curriculum development. There is, at present, a generation gap; young people are growing up with information technology and out-stripping their school teachers, even their university tutors. We must ensure that we are equipped to develop and expand the knowledge of our young people. In tomorrow’s world, we will need considerable expertise in our industry, we will need to overcome the skill shortages which we see today, even at a time of high unemployment. There are challenges for everyone, whether in the education field or in the area of research and development. Likewise, readers of Data Processing have to meet the transition required to face a world in which the pace of change will 0 continue to accelerate. _ ~_ ~ _________ and several are already in use. The potential applications seem almost limitless and it will be the community as a whole along with the computer industry, that will decide how such systems may be implemented. So what is the outlook for our industry in terms of potential growth? Informed opinion says the industry is growing at an average yearly rate of 1625% or higher. In five years the total worldwide market for mainframes will be $88B, almost double the 1983 total of $46B. By 1988, the market for personal desktop computers office workstations and DP terminals will total $86B -- approximately equal to the total market for computer systems. The computer industry has grown faster and more successfully than any previous human activity, and I believe that it will continue to do so to the benefit of the whole community. So when Dam Processing celebrates the next milestone in its distinguished history of recording our industry, some of the developments indicated here will have become reality. I7

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use of the new digital technology to process and control the flow of information. And it was convinced that this technology would become a vital element in Honeywell’s principal markets. By the mid-sixties, minicomputer technology was already becoming pervasive in process control, missile guidance, and other Honeywell systems, just as it would emerge in the late seventies as a basic building block of distributed processing systems.

Eisenhower was in the White House; there was war in the Middle East and a new industry was taking root, designing and building electronic digital computers. Most of the early computers were employed in scientific research, but they were also increasingly finding commercial applications. The speed and power of these machines

were constrained by vacuum tube technology, by bulky, heavy power supplies, and by the cooling equipment needed to remove large quantities of heat. Magnetic cores were beginning to supplant mercury delay lines for high-speed storage, auguring dramatic declines in the size and cost of computer hardware. Longer-term storage of data required roomfuls of boxes crammed with 80-column punched cards. The Minneapolis-Honeywell Regulator Company, as the 70 year old firm was then called, was one of a number of major corporations entering the computer business in the mid-1950s. By 1959, Honeywell had operations in a number of markets, including automatic control of heating and cooling systems, industrial and aeronautical instrumentation, and miniature precision switches. Honeywell management saw that these early examples of automation were related to the

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nanoseconds versus 144 microseconds for the 304, or about 960 times faster. Finally, these same remarkable technological advances have resulted in lower costs to the m~ufacturer and lower prices to the customer. In fact, one could buy 48 9300s today for the same price of a 304 some 25 years ago. No other industry can match these great improvements in price/ performance. The dramatic progress of our industry over this 25year span leads outside observers to ask if the rate of progress is about to level off or at least be sharply reduced. From NCR’s perspective, we certainly see

no sign of this. If anything, the pace has actually accelerated in recent years. For instance, the NCR 9300, compared to its predecessor of just a year ago, consumes only one-tenth of the electricity required to power the system, weighs approximately one-tenth as much, occupies one-eighth of the space, and is 10 times more reliable. VLSI technology is a major driving force behind these improvements. The 9300 VLSI processor chip alone replaced 10 circuit boards in the preceding system. That illustrates how these tremendous improvements in reliability and size are being achieved.

959. Harold MacMillan was serving as British Prime Minister, Charles De 1 Gaulle was Premier of France. Dwight

he data processing industry has moved faster and more dramatically in the past quarter of a century than any other industry. A quarter of a century ago, Data Processing printed its first issue and NCR introduced its first computer, the NCR 304. An example of the technological advances that have occurred since then can be illustrated by comparing the NCR 304 to NCR’s latest generation product, the NCR 9300. The 304 was the first all solidstate business computer and the 9300 was the first full 32 bit very large-scale integration mainframe computer designed for general business applications. The similarities end there, however. In terms of physical size, the 304 CPU weighed 3 450 pounds compared to just 50 pounds for the 9300. The 304 CPU required 35 square feet of floor space in an air-conditioned computer room versus four square feet of table space in most any office environment for the 9300. With respect to memory size and overall performance, the 304 processor had 32 000 bytes of internal memos compared to up to four million bytes for the 9300. The cycle time of the 9300 processor is 150

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Ever new technological

challenges

Selfcorrecting tape drives, cycle-sharing architecture and time sharing were three developments which encouraged growth in the industry. The development of microcoding, or firmware, also signalled significant change for the computer industry. Firmware is the concept of developing

data processing

and validating program logic in software form and then ‘freezing’ it in a special read-only memory. The result is more efficient than software and more flexible than hard-wired logic. A steady fall in the cost of memory chips has increased the use of firmware in systems, which in turn has lowered the cost of computers. Firmware compresses the design cycle, simplifies engineering changes and makes the internal logic of the machines more flexible. At the same time, computer software has emerged as an equal if not the dominant factor in systems technology. The realization has grown that software is the key to the amount of useful work that a computer can do. Because software development is extremely labour intensive, its cost has risen just as hardware costs have fallen. This has led to the trend toward separate pricing of software, allowing users to

industry standards Another sig~ficant contrast between the industry today and that of 25 years ago concerns the emergence of industry standards in hardware components, interfaces, communications and, more recently, software. The use of such standards will benefit customers through lower costs and increased flexibility in configuring systems. In addition, these standards increase the level of compatibility among industry suppliers. Data processing users have been searching for answers to compatibility questions for quite some time. Industry standards may not provide all the answers, but certainly are a step in the right direction..

Shrinking computers The final change of fundamental significance concerns the advent of small computers, first of the minicomputer class, and, more recently, systems based on microprocessor technology. A quarter of a century ago, ‘computer’ to most people meant what is today called a ‘mainframe’. At that time, it was generally correct to say that the larger the processor, the lower the cost per instruction executed. Today, on the other hand, that relationship has been reversed so that the smaliest processors cost less per instruction executed than the largest. This revolutionary development is one of the driving forces behind the strong trend in recent years to distributed processing. I believe that the next 25 years will produce changes at least as dramatic as the past 25 years. The future for the industry cl as a whole is full of promise.

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acquire only those software components that support their individual needs. In the late 196Os, multidimensional operating systems, such as Honeywell’s GCOS, could perform both local and remote batch processing while servicing multiple time sharing users. Since then structured data systems have exploited the random-access nature of disc storage, combining discrete, job-dependent information files to form an integrated store of data that can support a wide range of processing needs. In the mid-1970s, transaction processing enabled large users to process a steady stream of transactions online, thereby maintaining up-to-date databases at all times.

What lies ahead We have taken a backward look at the

progress of a forward looking, fastchanging industry. What lies ahead? One of the most exciting areas certainly will be the automation of the office. Bringing together technologies of telecommunications, word processing, data processing and facility controls in integrated networks will create office operations of increased function and efficiency. At the same time, these new computer-based systems will free office workers for ever more challen~ng and creative work. Another area of fast-paced change will bring together the technologies of data processing and factory management. Creating master networks to control factory floor, inventory management information systems and data processing will make truly automated factories a reality. The next 25 years promise to be at least as exciting as the past 25 that Data Processing magazine has reported to us. 0

omputer technology has changed dramatically since the first valve-based C number processing machines were introduced in the 1950s. It is an established fact that today’s computers am improving the productivity of individuals and departments by increasing the speed with which they process data, by providing simple and easy access to banks of information, and through their ability to communicate with other computers across the world. Though tremendous progress has been made over the past 25 years, the next decade could see even more far-reaching changes in formation technology changes which will enable numbers, text, voice and graphical information to be communicated and processed using the same techniques and the same processing and transmission equipment. This convergence of information processing and telecommunication techniques has already begun and will be accelerated as more and more suppliers offer networking facilities and users recognize the benefits to be obtained from co~~~~g through computers. In a networked system, processing power is placed where it is needed. Each networked : device can share information

ere are many trends affecting the data processing business today, including: T” rapidly declining hardware prices, and accelerated pace of technological change, the proliferation of operating systems and application software, and a resurgence of growth within the industry.

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held in the database, can access centrally held files, and can call upon supplementary computing power or programs from the mainframe or other local processors. Each networked system, thus, consists of a number of linked units whose total power and performance is far greater than the sum of the various parts. Since they communicate electronically, there are none of the delays associated with postal problems or staff absence; since all share the same information base, productivity is increased. Though the industry’s future is an exciting one, there are several major challenges to be faced. In particular, if users are to obtain the full benefits of networking techniques, it is essential that vendor-independent international standards are developed and implemented quickly for open system operations. In this way, it will be possible for networks to incorporate terminals and computers from various suppliers, thus creating true multivendor networks which allow the user choice of supplier and the opportunity to interconnect with a wide variety of networked systems throughout the world. There is little doubt that the use of electronic mail, which is now in its infancy, will blossom, particularly among major national and international organizations, when these standards are implemented. Progress to date is very encouraging with standards for local area networks already endorsed by the international bodies. Key standards to support user facilities such as mail messaging and file transfer are progressing well. Another challenge that has remained with us during the past 25 years is that posed by the American computer sup-

pliers who currently dominate many of the world’s markets and, by their actions, seek to squeeze non-US suppliers further. A strong, independent European computer industry is essential to combat this threat and I believe that this is best achieved by collaboration on research projects rather than the total merger of companies with different national interests and trading operations. The Esprit and Alvey programmes of the European Commission and British Government respectively, for strategic research in information technology, have gone some way towards achieving this objective. To supplement this work, and to maximize the top-class research skills available in Europe, ICL has joined with Bull of France and Siemens of Germany to set up a European Computer Industry Research Cenue in Munich. The new Centre will carry out precompetitive research into selected areas of information handling, and in particular knowledge processing. This is the first joint European data processing research venture created by ~~vidu~ industrial groups at their own initiative. The results of the research work will be freely available to the participating companies who will develop their own commercial products and sell them competitively in their own markets. Work on international standards and collaborative research will give users far greater vendor choice when planning future requirements. It will also help to achieve what many now regard as the real priorities for the future: the provision of compu~ng power in users’ offices and the tools to allow them to develop and run q their own systems.

The new computer

end user necessary. These multiple departments also create pressure for multiple types of computer tasks. From engineering groups that want to run CAD to accounting departments who want to run classical general accounting app~cations, the end users demand that the local computer or networking node be a multitasking device. This demand for extended local computer power is creating a market that is growing at 3040% per year. These three characteristics: multiple locations, multiple users and multiple tasks, define the new class of computer user. They are changing the way corporations use computers and the way they do business. Increasingly, the new class of computer user expects even nonprogrammers to be able to access and manipulate corporate databases rather than

user

One of the less widely discussed - but probably most significant of these trends - is the emergence of a new class of user. By that I don’t mean or~ations that have never used computers, but rather organizations that are using computers in a new way. These users, typically multimillion dollar corporations, spend about four out of every five data processing dollars today - so the way they change their approach to using computers has important ram&cations to the industries that supply them. Typically these users have large, geographically dispersed operations. As a result, they need to install computers in end user departments at dispersed locations and increasingly network them as

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oothsaying in the computer industry is not for the faint of heart. Some might even suggest, given the rapid changes in technology of the past few years, that neither is it for the sound of mind. It seems any long-term predictions made about the computer industry have proven false. Remember the widely-held view of the mid-1950s that demand for large computers would never amount to more than a handful of machines, because only governments and very large corporations had any use for them? And, just five years ago, few would have suggested that the personal computer was anything more than a curiosity with limited marketability. Predicting trends in the computer inI dustry is difficult at the best of times, but the accelerating rate of change in technoI logy has made prediction even more ~difficult. However, it is possible to discern certain trends which are beginning to ~emerge. For example, while noone could 1have predicted the boom in personal ) computer use five years ago, I think that many of us can now agree that an important trend has emerged: people who work

application-specific databases. This leads computer system designers to place new demands on their vendors.

with information want to have computing power in their personal control. Also, while, 20 years ago noone could have predicted that so many large computers would be spread throughout so many large organizations, it has become clear today that not only do organizations want the power and capabilities of mainframe computers, they increasingly want to make them available to more users. Now that clear trends have emerged, it has given the industry a new sense of direction. Yet, although we have just come through the deepest worldwide recession in decades, certain segments of industry continue to suffer. We are even seeing difficulties in the fast growing areas of the computer industry, such as home and personal computers. When such uncertainty abounds, how can one consider oredicting the future?

Clarification

and consolidation

In fact, I would argue that the new-found answers on the one hand and the uncertainty on the other hand are part of the same process. It is the process of an industry trying to clarify and consolidate its needs. And it is a process that is accelerating. Organizations, both large and small, are discovering, through increasingly sophisticated analysis, that organizational automation is not a matter of whether but how soon. They are looking at the implementation of computer resources in an integrated way. No matter how small their needs may be today, they are considering the future as a major element in their decisions of the present. If anything, the economic recession has served to sharpen this resolve.

minor or even major differences pricing.

in system

Standards Networking A good example of new levels of expectations is seen in networking. Typically, all of the mainframes and minis in the corporate stable must be networked. Today, we even feel pressure to network the micros as well. The networking trend is clearly away from simple remote access and toward distributed processing and distributed intelligence. The high expectations of this new class of users centre on reliability. Despite the phenomenal increase in reliability over the past decade, users have come to expect perfect performance. As a result, high uptime is often more important today than

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Another trend affecting the industry is the adoption of industry standards. This is important to the user because it protects his/her investment. It is equally important to the vendor because it allows multiple vendor equipment to work together and to some extent makes each vendor independent. One further example: the new type of user demands longevity for his/her selected vendors - for hardware, software and the applications running on their systems. Computer buyers today are very concerned about the long-term prospects of vendors. In fact, they are often more concerned with vendor selection than with

The result for computer users and the computer industry will be quite positive. I believe that in the future computer buyers will increasingly demand more value for money and the preservation of their investments. These demands will dictate that successful computer companies serve a broad range of customer needs, that they offer products that have a high degree of compatibility from bottom to top (and top to bottom), that they offer a spectrum of communications capabilities that are compatible with important worldwide industry standards and de facto standards alike, and that they provide a full range of services and many options for hardware and software maintenance. A parallel can be drawn with more mature industries such as automotive and steel. Those that have survived have done so by integrating both vertically and horizontally, a process requiring enormous investment. The future, I believe, will be very difficult for those computer companies concentrating on particular market niches. While demand for data processing capabilities will continue to grow strongly for the foreseeable future, the number of companies successfully meeting that demand will shrink. The investment required to provide integrated products and a wide spectrum of services will increase and many companies will be unable, or unwilling, to bear the burden. The thought may offer scant comfort to today’s computer buyer. After all, noone deliberately bets on a loser. I submit, however, that to the careful buyer, the one who painstakingly considers the long as well as the short term, the future holds only promise. 0

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product selection. Because application programs tend to have very long lives - a given application or database will probably need to work on a succession of differing size computers during its life - the sophisticated buyer is aware that the computer he/she picks out today may only be a temporary resting place. The degree of hardware and software compatibility, then, becomes a key factor in vendor selection. Although I can see current trends such as those I have mentioned, and in some way predict their ramifications I wouldn’t dare to venture further. The technology and marvels of science embodied in today’s data processing systems were barely foreseen a decade ago. It’s the challenge presented by technologies and new market demands that makes our industry so exciting. 0

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ecentiy I was looking through the first issue of Data Processing, dated J~u~/M~ch 1959. The photo~aphs of room-sized computers and the comments on their performance (‘data input punched cards read at 200 cards a minute’) vividly reminded me that the speed and processing power of information systems have grown exponentially over the last 25 years. Those quantitative changes have made, and will continue to make, a vast difference in the way we use that power. Between 1750 and 1850 and again at the beginning of the twentieth century, profound technological changes transformed the economic life of the western world. And over the last three decades, we have entered a third industrial revolution,

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n 1978, two-thirds of all computer dollars were spent on mainframes. By 1987, it is predicted that three-quarters of alI computer sales will be of systems priced under $350000 and by 1990, half of alI the industry’s revenues will be on machines selling at under $10000. The next 10 years will therefore see a tremendous shift in both the kind of hardware manufactured and in the way such systems are used. The motivation for that change will come from several key factors. First, there will be a continuing improvement in price versus performance of computer hardware, probably at the rate of 25% to 30% a year. This will help ensure that computing technology is available to an increasingly wide range of end users. Second, the trend for distributing processing power will become even more apparent throughout the next decade as the demand from end users is matched by increasingly sophisticated applications software, communications facilities and education. And third, the ability of computing technology to improve productivity within organizations will become a much more widely accepted fact.

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Computers are no longer merely number-

crunchers. They can inst~t~eously store, access, manipulate, and transmit enormous quantities of information. This gives us new freedom to analyse literally, to ‘break down into components’ - our work, so that we can identify tasks which, if we applied information technology to them, we could do more efficiently. The result: vastly improved output with the same or slightly increased input. Computers and ~fo~a~on systems may therefore be considered ‘productivity engines’, just as were the steam engine and the dynamo. In the factory, information systems can be linked with automated manufacturing operations, so that when the computer designs a new part, it can also program the machines to manufacture it. Computeraided design (CAD) and analysis systems allow more accurate predictions as to how a product will perform. Robots and other computer-~ded m~ufactur~g (HAM) systems can produce components at a very high level of consistency. Inspection devices with computer-driven ‘eyes’ can guarantee that the product has been

During the next decade, senior management will become much more aware of the real benefits to be gained from technology - and, conversely, computer companies will become better at ~derstanding user problems. The explosive demand for personal business computers has had a major impact on the thinking and approach of computer systems suppliers and end users. It has dramatically changed user expectations, and for PC users, three second response times, limited hours of availability and dependence on central organizations or systems are no longer acceptable. During the 198Os, however, such users will demand not only greater improvements in performance but also the ability to access a wider range of information and applications. The personal computer will, therefore, have to be incorporated into an organization’s information network and this will be the major challenge for both vendors and users in the next few years. Far from replacing minicomputers, however, the success of the PC will be dependent upon and influenced by evolutions in mini-based dep~~ental information systems. PCs will be used increasingly to solve personal business problems, increase individual productivity and emulate terminals. They will also be used to ‘off-load’ applications systems currently based on departmental systems. At some stage, PC users will expect such services as the automatic down-

loading of information based on departmental systems, automatic backup, recovery and archiving of data and access to both internal and external computer services through a dep~tment~ information system gateway. The personal computer will, therefore, need to become an integral part of a distributed database architecture. At this point, the role of the departmental mini system will also change as it will become far less involved with running applications software and more concerned with holding a database and acting as a gateway to other systems in the network. The personal computer has certainly stimulated a major change in the industry not only in hardware manufacturing terms but also in the increased involvement of companies such as Hewlett-Packard in the development of applications software for business use. Our belief is that if the PC replaces anything in the computer network, it will be the terminal. Already the redefinition of the computer market from mainframeiminicomputer environments to a mainframe/~nicomputer/~cro scenario is just about complete in the product offerings and business strategies of the major electronics manufacturers. Over the next decade, and beyond, there will be a further redefinition as all processors become smaller, less costly, more powerful and easier to use. This trend can only be of benefit to the user and the industry. 0

driven by atomic power, electronics, and computers. Like the first two ‘revolutions’, this one has prompted enormous consumer demand and given rise to new jobs - whole new industries, in fact and fresh outlets for venture capital. It also holds out the promise of economic growth and heightened productivity. We seem to be assimilating and applying new technology in ways that parallel the past. We first use it to mechanize brute functions, Just as the earliest steam engines simply replaced horses, the Iirst computers were nothing more than giant, enormously efficient calculators. Then, having mastered the basic power, we go on to merge it with other technologies and create entirely new applications that deliver the power to the user in novel and sometimes very indirect ways. Our information technology is now entering this second stage and can, thus, exert a profound impact on productivity. Computers

as ‘productivity

engines’

data processing

measured to specifications. All of this means better quality, less wasted labour, less time and money spent on rework, and eventually, less of an investment in product maintenance. Information systems can also help us to plan and control manufacturing resources. These ‘operational control systems’ combine elaborate hardware and software configurations to plan materials requirements, schedule production, and in general to achieve productivity gains by using materials, machines, tools, and human labour more efficiently.

Automation can eiiminate redundant work We can also expect abundant fallout of indirect and secondary productivity benefits. Businesses may look to automation to remove the problem of hazardous working environments, as computer-guided robots ‘man’ the scorching foundries and the suffocating chemical plants (with an accompanying reduction in air-conditioning and other energy costs). Also, the scarcity

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of certain skills, engineering and architectural drafting, for example, will be partly compensated for by information systems. In the office, where decisions and not products are made, productivity comes in a different form. The fully-equipped and fully-integrated electronic office will reduce information ‘float’ - the delay and uncertainty that typically plague the organization simply because needed information is unavailable. Automation can also eliminate redundant work - retyping, manual filing and retrieval, ‘telephone tag’, and much more. All of this will allow us to utilize our human resources for tasks that require judgement, initiative, and rapid communication. The result will be faster, better-informed decision making, which is the essence of productivity for managers and executives. For, as consultant Vincent Giuliano has observed, ‘the office is the place where timeliness of a decision or response can have immediate consequences. If the office is ineffective, the organization must be ineffective.’ Admittedly, there is no progress with-

out a price. The new industrial revolution has radicahy transformed the nature of work in industrialized societies, making many jobs obsolete and creating others that put people at terminals, hour after monotonous hour. While reaping the benefits of information technology, governments and the industry itself must take responsibility for the human and social effects of automation and must work to minimize and ultimately to resolve them. In his exceedingly optimistic new book, T&Z Coming Boom, Herman Kahn writes that ‘ultimately, growth in technologies will be our most constant element in winning the productivity crisis. Computers, communications, data processing: that’s where the excitement is’. I share Mr Kahn’s optimism - and his excitement. In only 25 years, we have witnessed, and played a major role in, the evolution of ‘digital electronic computers’ into ‘integrated information systems’. The new industrial revolution has already been as influential as the first two. Perhaps it will turn out to be even more so. q _.._.___- ~ ..-_

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