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Plane sailing to disaster
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LOCATIONS UK 110 High Holborn, London, WC1V 6EU Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1200 Fax +44 (0) 20 7611 1250 Australia Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue, Chatswood, NSW 2067 Tel +61 2 9422 8559 Fax +61 2 9422 8552 USA 50 Hampshire St, Floor 5, Cambridge, MA 02139 Tel +1 781 734 8770 Fax +1 720 356 9217
Subscription Service For our latest subscription offers, visit newscientist.com/subscribe Customer and subscription services are also available by: Telephone +44 (0) 330 333 9470 Email [email protected] Web newscientist.com/subscribe Post New Scientist, Rockwood House, Perrymount Road, Haywards Heath, West Sussex RH16 3DH One year subscription (51 issues) UK £150 cONTACTS Contact us newscientist.com/contact Who’s who newscientist.com/people General & media enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] Editorial Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Picture desk Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1268 Display Advertising Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1291 [email protected] Recruitment Advertising UK Tel +44 (0) 20 8652 4444 [email protected] UK Newsstand Tel +44 (0) 20 3787 9001 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce UK Ltd, 2nd Floor, 5 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HU Syndication Tribune Content Agency Tel +44 (0) 20 7588 7588 [email protected]
© 2016 Reed Business Information Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by Reed Business Information Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. New Scientist (Online) ISSN 2059 5387 Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Williams Gibbons (Wolverhampton)
Plane sailing to disaster Aircraft and ships must not be exempt from emissions cuts THE Paris climate agreement, sealed last December, was a first in many respects: the first truly international climate change deal, with promises from both rich and poor nations to cut emissions; the first global signal that the age of fossil fuels must end; the first time world leaders said we should aim for less than 2 °C of warming. Aiming for a 2 °C limit would have been considered ambitious, but leaders seized the moment and went for 1.5 °C. According to our analysis, this is achievable, but only just (see page 30). It depends on two very difficult conditions being met. One is to decarbonise the economy very quickly. The other is to find a way to suck carbon dioxide out of the air.
The immediate task, though, is to stop emitting carbon. That is not helped by a gaping loophole that has existed in climate negotiations since the first Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, and still runs right through the Paris agreement. Ships and aircraft are getting a free ride. Following on from Rio, the Kyoto protocol of 1997 – the first serious international effort to tackle climate change – also let shipping and aviation off the hook, allowing them to deal with their emissions separately. Since then, little has changed. Both industries claim they deserve special treatment because they are essential to economic development.
Prematurity is for life THE high survival rate of premature babies is one of the success stories of modern medicine. Over the past 15 years, more and more babies have survived being born earlier and earlier in their development. But the outlook is not entirely positive. As those preterm babies grow up, subtle, long-term effects of being born early are becoming apparent (see page 34). The result
of this precious lost time in the womb is a largely unrecognised epidemic of social, emotional and educational difficulties. In a typical class of 30 children, four will have been born before 36 weeks gestation, and chances are at least one will struggle as a result. That is, of course, a price worth paying for life, especially because the problems can largely be ameliorated. But as yet, there is no
It is time to call their bluff. Yes, development is important, but it can no longer be an excuse for inaction. Other economically important sectors – electricity generation, for example – are starting to do their bit. Why should aviation and shipping be exempt? Each emits roughly the same amount every year as Germany, but their emissions are still growing, unlike Germany’s. A deal that proposes to limit warming to well below 2 °C but fails to mention ships and aircraft is farcical. They both appeared in early drafts of the agreement but mysteriously disappeared in the final hours. Until this loophole is closed, the agreement is all at sea and 1.5 °C is pie in the sky. n
formal system for identifying preterm children as they enter school, nor any special provision for their needs. Teachers are widely aware that the problem exists, but don’t usually have the training or resources to intervene. Given how much we invest in acute care – it costs £250,000 to fund a preterm infant’s stay in a neonatal unit – there is a clear case for finding extra resources to support them as they get older. We can, and should, make up for that lost time. n 20 February 2016 | NewScientist | 5
LEADERS
LOCATIONS UK 110 High Holborn, London, WC1V 6EU Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1200 Fax +44 (0) 20 7611 1250 Australia Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue, Chatswood, NSW 2067 Tel +61 2 9422 8559 Fax +61 2 9422 8552 USA 50 Hampshire St, Floor 5, Cambridge, MA 02139 Tel +1 781 734 8770 Fax +1 720 356 9217
Subscription Service For our latest subscription offers, visit newscientist.com/subscribe Customer and subscription services are also available by: Telephone +44 (0) 330 333 9470 Email [email protected] Web newscientist.com/subscribe Post New Scientist, Rockwood House, Perrymount Road, Haywards Heath, West Sussex RH16 3DH One year subscription (51 issues) UK £150 cONTACTS Contact us newscientist.com/contact Who’s who newscientist.com/people General & media enquiries Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] Editorial Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1202 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Picture desk Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1268 Display Advertising Tel +44 (0) 20 7611 1291 [email protected] Recruitment Advertising UK Tel +44 (0) 20 8652 4444 [email protected] UK Newsstand Tel +44 (0) 20 3787 9001 Newstrade distributed by Marketforce UK Ltd, 2nd Floor, 5 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HU Syndication Tribune Content Agency Tel +44 (0) 20 7588 7588 [email protected]
© 2016 Reed Business Information Ltd, England New Scientist is published weekly by Reed Business Information Ltd. ISSN 0262 4079. New Scientist (Online) ISSN 2059 5387 Registered at the Post Office as a newspaper and printed in England by Williams Gibbons (Wolverhampton)
Plane sailing to disaster Aircraft and ships must not be exempt from emissions cuts THE Paris climate agreement, sealed last December, was a first in many respects: the first truly international climate change deal, with promises from both rich and poor nations to cut emissions; the first global signal that the age of fossil fuels must end; the first time world leaders said we should aim for less than 2 °C of warming. Aiming for a 2 °C limit would have been considered ambitious, but leaders seized the moment and went for 1.5 °C. According to our analysis, this is achievable, but only just (see page 30). It depends on two very difficult conditions being met. One is to decarbonise the economy very quickly. The other is to find a way to suck carbon dioxide out of the air.
The immediate task, though, is to stop emitting carbon. That is not helped by a gaping loophole that has existed in climate negotiations since the first Earth Summit in Rio in 1992, and still runs right through the Paris agreement. Ships and aircraft are getting a free ride. Following on from Rio, the Kyoto protocol of 1997 – the first serious international effort to tackle climate change – also let shipping and aviation off the hook, allowing them to deal with their emissions separately. Since then, little has changed. Both industries claim they deserve special treatment because they are essential to economic development.
Prematurity is for life THE high survival rate of premature babies is one of the success stories of modern medicine. Over the past 15 years, more and more babies have survived being born earlier and earlier in their development. But the outlook is not entirely positive. As those preterm babies grow up, subtle, long-term effects of being born early are becoming apparent (see page 34). The result
of this precious lost time in the womb is a largely unrecognised epidemic of social, emotional and educational difficulties. In a typical class of 30 children, four will have been born before 36 weeks gestation, and chances are at least one will struggle as a result. That is, of course, a price worth paying for life, especially because the problems can largely be ameliorated. But as yet, there is no
It is time to call their bluff. Yes, development is important, but it can no longer be an excuse for inaction. Other economically important sectors – electricity generation, for example – are starting to do their bit. Why should aviation and shipping be exempt? Each emits roughly the same amount every year as Germany, but their emissions are still growing, unlike Germany’s. A deal that proposes to limit warming to well below 2 °C but fails to mention ships and aircraft is farcical. They both appeared in early drafts of the agreement but mysteriously disappeared in the final hours. Until this loophole is closed, the agreement is all at sea and 1.5 °C is pie in the sky. n
formal system for identifying preterm children as they enter school, nor any special provision for their needs. Teachers are widely aware that the problem exists, but don’t usually have the training or resources to intervene. Given how much we invest in acute care – it costs £250,000 to fund a preterm infant’s stay in a neonatal unit – there is a clear case for finding extra resources to support them as they get older. We can, and should, make up for that lost time. n 20 February 2016 | NewScientist | 5