- Email: [email protected]
Planning for sustainable development in the context of global change
Global Environmental Change, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 1—10, 1998 ( 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain 0308-5961/98 $19.00#0.00
PII: S0959-3780(98)00002-8
Viewpoint
Planning for sustainable development in the context of global change Antonio R Magalha8 es
Antonio R Magalha8 es can be contacted at SQS 315-Bolco-A-Ap.104 70384-010 Brasilia, DF Brazil Tel.: 00 5561 3291000; fax: 00 5561 3291010; e-mail: [email protected]
The issue One of the main features of this century is the post-war belief regarding the ability of nations to promote their economic and social development. Governments and international organizations assumed that they could foster the development of underdeveloped regions, and the academic community took over the task of developing a body of economic development theories to provide the foundations for economic development practice. The Marshall Plan represents an important benchmark in this regard. It proved that a well-established and funded development plan can be successful. The plan assumed that the lack of development was a result of the lack of physical capital (infrastructure, industries) following the war. Investing in new physical capital would provide the conditions for recovering the wellbeing of people. The Marshall Plan worked well in post-war Europe. The original success of the Marshall Plan led policy makers and the academic world to believe that it could be replicated in the developing world. However, in order for this to happen, two additional conditions should be met. First, as development is not a function of physical capital only, other forms of capital (present in Europe but not in many developing regions) are necessary for development to take place. These are: human and social capital (see Ostrom et al. 1993; Putnam, 1993; Serageldin, 1995). Second, the development process destroys natural capital and thus contains the roots for self-destruction in the long term. These are the so-called externalities of the development process; in other words, costs that are not appropriated by investors and are eventually shared by society as a whole. Sometimes the destruction of natural capital is visible, like soil erosion, water pollution, or deforestation. Other times, it appears as global externalities of the development process, such as green house gas (GHG) emissions that increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and cause global warming, and CFC emissions that destroy
1
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
the ozone layer, or transboundary transportation of substances that cause acid rain in other regions. As a consequence, the development process so far has been unsustainable, leading to local, regional and global changes in the environment. Some of these changes constitute a serious threat to life on earth. Devising ways to eliminate or compensate for the externalities that cause global environmental changes, while promoting economic and social development in favour of the poor, is a challenge for the present generation.
The recommendation In 1987, the Brundtland report (WCED, 1987) proposed the concept of sustainable development as the answer to the many problems of the traditional development process. Similarly the International Conference on Climate Impacts and Sustainable Development of Semiarid Regions (ICID) held in Fortaleza, Brazil, in 1992, advocated sustainable development as the appropriate tool for dealing with the problems of the poor and of the environment of the tropical semiarid regions. (ICID, Declaration of Fortaleza, 1996). The Rio Summit, in 1992, also endorsed this recommendation. During the Rio Summit the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and the Biodiversity Convention were signed, with the Desertification convention being signed a couple of years later. In short, sustainable development — development that meets the needs of the present generation while maintaining the conditions for future generations to meet their own needs — would not produce the externalities that bring about global (and local) environmental changes.
The problem The initial problem in following this recommendation was how to operationalize the concept of sustainable development. As it appeared in the Brundtland report and other United Nations documents, it served the political objective of calling the attention of the world to the problems of environmental degradation and of intra- and intergenerational equity. But it seemed almost useless for decision makers dealing with day-to-day decisions on new investments in infrastructure, education facilities, agricultural development, incentives to private sector development, etc. The second problem was how to incorporate the idea of environmental change — and particularly of global change — into development planning. Existing approaches to development planning rely heavily on the notion that investment in physical (and more recently in human) capital will lead to higher incomes and better living conditions for the target populations. During the last decade, the issue of local externalities — particularly the problem of pollution and other local environmental impacts — has begun to be considered in policy making; e.g. through environmental impact studies and public hearings to involve the local population in the decisionmaking process. But development planning has continued to ignore the issue of global externalities.
2
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
Planning for sustainable development has turned out to be a complex problem. First, because the decision makers involved in the process have to agree on their understanding of sustainable development. In many situations, the word ‘sustainable’ has been attached to ‘development’ without any real change in the process of development planning and practice, with politicians and decision makers willing to talk about sustainable development but not willing to change their mindset and their practices. There is no consensus on what sustainable development is. For instance, the Brundtland report, together with most policy recommendations coming out of the United Nation, the World Bank, or National Governments, assume that sustainable development involves continued economic growth ‘with the protection of the environment’. The World Bank, for instance, advocates sustainable development with ‘some depletion of natural capital’ provided that other forms of capital (social, human, physical) substitute for the loss of natural capital (Serageldin, 1995). They Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizes the need of the developing countries to grow economically, provided the industrialized world slows its growth rate in order to allow more room for the developing world. On the other hand, scholars like Daly advocate the idea of zero economic growth (Daly, 1993). Sustainable development should be qualitative, not quantitative. Under these circumstances, there is the need for a major redistribution of income from the industrialized to the developing world (or, otherwise, a process of population distribution from the developing world to the industrialized world will take place — something that challenges the conditions for world peace — see Magalha8 es, 1997). Sustainable development involves the need for conciliation and conflict resolution. The issue of distribution is inherent to the idea of sustainability: social and spatial distribution (sometimes beyond national frontiers) and intergenerational distribution. How can that be dealt with? This is a very important notion if one is concerned with planning for sustainable development. It raises the need for political sustainability, through a comprehensive process of stakeholder participation, as a requirement in the planning process. When planning for sustainability, development planners have to deal with questions that are not necessarily present at a political level. The concept of sustainable development is popular as a general objective of society: everyone is in favour of sustainability, less inequality, concern for children and grandchildren and living in harmony with nature and with each other. It is more difficult when one also has to deal with questions such as: is sustainable development possible? What is actually possible? Is sustainable development consistent, for instance, with regard to winners and losers, or to conflicting objectives between different societal groups, or different uses of the resources; is it consistent with the need to face the urgent social problems of hunger and famine in the world? Is it achievable. Should we aim at a sustainable world, or can we more modestly only think of a less unsustainable world?
The proposal In this Viewpoint I propose a methodology to introduce the idea of sustainability into the development planning process and, in
3
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
particular, I discuss a way of introducing the concern over future climate change into such a process. I argue that the methodological framework presented here can be replicated for other forms of global environmental change as well. This proposal is based on an earlier paper (Magalha8 es, 1992) and on the Project Aridas proposal (Magalha8 es et al., 1994). In an attempt to translate the concept of sustainability into one that is operational to use in development planning, the following definition has been adopted: ‘Sustainable development is development that lasts’. Of course, this definition needs further clarification. In a world of continuous technical and scientific progress, ‘to last’ does not mean to be unchangeable. The benefits of development must last, but ‘development’ may be continuously transformed internally. This definition should be applied every time a new investment decision is made. When deciding upon a particular project or policy, the question must be asked: is this project or policy sustainable? Will its results last over time? Will it reduce inequality and improve environmental quality? This means that every new project needs to undergo a process of social and environmental impact analysis with regard to local, regional and global impacts. In practice, it is difficult to deal with the concept of sustainability in its entirety. For the purpose of development planning, it is necessary to split it into at least four dimensions: social (poverty, inequality), economic (rate of return), environmental (conservation of natural resources, carrying capacity), and political (legitimacy, societal support). An assessment of each dimension must be made, before a comprehensive assessment is done. Also here, the planner and the decision maker will have to make choices. Sometimes, for instance, the social and environmental benefits will compensate for low economic sustainability, or even justify societal subsidies in order to assure global sustainability. The planning process itself requires the use of elements or tools: identification of key variables and construction of sustainable development indicators; use of scenarios, according to different methodologies; assessment of vulnerabilities and risk and impact analysis; goal setting; integration; and, last but not least, participation processes. The issue of global environmental change can thus be introduced as a risk of disruption to an existing or anticipated scenario of development. The risk of global warming, for instance, can be translated into specific climate change scenarios for a certain region (hence the need for regional scenarios). The planning process will ensure that impact assessments be developed, and adaptation and mitigation policies designed as components of the overall sustainable development plan. In the case of the developing world, and particularly of the semiarid regions of the tropical zone of the planet, where poverty, famine, conflict and environmental degradation come together, the issue of vulnerability is crucial. These are highly vulnerable regions, even without the threat of global change. Some of them, like the Subsaharan strip and the Brazilian Serta8 o, are unsustainable. The major indicator of sustainability (or its lack) is outmigration. These semiarid regions have proven historically that they cannot support their population — yet in many places the population is still growing rapidly. The combination of a large and growing population, the
4
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
associated economic and social activities, and a weak environment turn these regions into the most vulnerable ones in the world. The concept of vulnerability — as the incapacity to face any crisis — becomes a crucial concept for sustainable development planning. ‘Vulnerability is the risk that the household’s entitlements will fail to buffer against hunger, famine, dislocation or other losses. It is a relative measure of the household’s proneness to crisis’ (Ribot, 1996; Downing, 1991). In such circumstances, it is difficult to envisage the possibility of full sustainable development. However, it is always possible to improve the level of sustainability of the economy and society. It must be said that the contribution of these region to global change is small — in terms of GHG and CFC emissions, for instance — but it may be great in terms of social disruption and its consequence for other regions of the world.
The methodological framework The general methodological framework for sustainable development planning involves two parallel and interconnected processes: a technical process, with the participation of experts and planners; and a participatory process, with the participation of stakeholders. An initial process of participation and negotiation is necessary in order to create the constituency that will make the planning process itself feasible. In the case of the Aridas project, for the Semiarid Northeast of Brazil, this trial negotiation process was carried out by a non-governmental organisation (NGO), the Esquel Brasil Foundation following the ICID recommendation it took two years for Esquel to involve stakeholders from the Government — federal and most of the 10 Northeast States — the private sector, and civil society, and for them to agree on the project and to establish an administrative arrangement to implement the planning process. This negotiation phase was also one of consciousness raising and consensus building regarding the need for a sustainable development strategy. This process probably could not have been led by a governmental organization, or any large organization that lacks flexibility and commitment to the cause. It is an example of the role of civil society. During this negotiation process, the general framework methodology was developed, as well as the detailed terms of reference of the project (Magalha8 es et al., 1994). The framework methodology involved the following tasks: ¹ask 1: Assessment of the present state of sustainability in the region, including the economic, social, environmental, political and global dimensions. This requires the collection and organization of data, identitification of key variables and indicators of sustainability, and calculation of the indicators. ¹ask 2: Assessment of present vulnerability, with regard to the outcome of Task 1. Identification of vulnerable social groups, activities, and ecosystems. Assessment of environmental and social impacts, for instance, with regard to present climate variability. ¹ask 3: Assessment of lessons from present and past development policies and their social and environmental impacts. What are the conditions for a policy to be effective and politically sustainable. Analysis of replicability of the successful policies. ¹ask 4: Assessment of future sustainability, based on trends and expert advice with regard to a business-as-usual scenario. The future scenario
5
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
relies on the projection of key variables and indicators and must include an assessment of social, economic, environmental, political and global sustainability. A business-as-usual scenario should be designed for the time frame of one generation, at least, with some intermediate points. ¹ask 5: Assessment of vulnerability of the future business-as-usual scenario. In order to assess this task, two future climate scenarios must be designed. The first one, assuming no global change; the second, assuming global environmental change — and particularly climate change. A study of the impact of future climatic change on the future scenario must be carried out. ¹ask 6: Construction of a desired scenario, based on a comprehensive process of stakeholder participation. The outcome of this exercise is a scenario of the future that is desired by the society of the present. ¹ask 7: From a comparison between the present situation, the businessas-usual scenario and the desired scenario, plus the assessment of vulnerability in the present and in the future (including the possibility of climatic change) together with lessons from societal policies, it is possible to design a sustainable development strategy aiming at changing the path of the business-as-usual scenario towards the desired scenario. Again in this phase the stakeholder participation is necessary to assure the political sustainability of the resulting proposed strategies. This strategy will deal with the pressing problems of the present — the problems of underdevelopment and poverty, economic development, institutional development, and control of externalities such as industrial and water pollution. It will also deal with the distant problems of the future, as long as it shows the link between those problems and the present. For instance, climatic change in semiarid regions may, in some regions like the Brazilian Northeast, increase the probability of extreme drought events. Droughts are problems of the present, but the scenarios show that they may become worse in the future. How can that be dealt with in the context of present development planning? Planners and decision makers need to be aware that something must be done in order to increase local resilience to present and future droughts and to reduce the causes of climatic change.
How to introduce global change The preoccupation with climate or any other type of global change is thus introduced as an input to the planning process. Let us consider climate change. In the first stage, information on present climate variability is introduced into the analysis of present societal vulnerability. Climate impact studies and societal responses are most important. On the one hand, they provide the tools for dealing with the problem of present climate variability, and they provide evidence of the importance of such climate variability. On the other hand, they provide information on the nature of future impacts and of future responses. This means that future droughts caused by climate change may be more frequent, or more severe, but they will be of the same nature as present droughts. To prepare plans for present droughts will increase the capacity to cope with future droughts as well. In the second stage, climate variation information is introduced into the analysis of the future scenarios. The present pattern of climate
6
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
variability — assuming there will be no global climatic change in the future — is introduced into the future business-as-usual scenario. Planners and decision makers will be able to assess what the impacts of climate variability will be in the future. Assuming that there will be no climatic change does not mean that the impacts will be the same as in the present. That will depend on the degree of vulnerability of the business-as-usual scenario. If more environmental degradation and more pressure on the environment and natural resources are foreseen, the impacts of present climate variability will be more serious. If, on the other hand, there is already greater concern with regard to environmental degradation, and if there are actions aimed at reducing vulnerability in the future, it is possible that the future society will be less sensitive to the existing patterns of climate variability. The third stage is to assume that there will be climate change. Take, for instance, the IPCC scenarios. In this case, the next step is to build a scenario of climate change applied to the specific region. This is not an easy task, because it depends on the availability of regional studies based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) coupled with local geographical information. The IPCC has not prepared scenarios for all regions and, even for those regions where there are regional climatic scenarios, the local resolution is not totally credible. So one has to be cautious when using such scenarios, particularly when informing policy makers about the result of the analysis. Policy makers must be continuously reminded that scenarios are not predictions: they are based on assumptions, and if the assumptions change, the results will also change. The use of climatic impact and scenario analysis will provide policy makers with the information that they need to plan for reducing the causes of climatic change, increasing societal resilience to such changes if they ever occur — and hence increasing resilience to present climatic variability — and reducing the adverse impacts of those changes. The underlying assumption of this is that sustainable development implies an increase of resilience and reduction of vulnerability to global environmental changes, as well as reduction of the causes of such changes. Within the framework of a sustainable development strategy, specific actions must be adopted with regard to these objectives.
The case of the Aridas Project in Brazil The Aridas project adopted the methodology described above for the semiarid Northeast region of Brazil. At the moment, the development of the Northeast is not sustainable. Main indicators are the level of poverty and migration from the rural zones, which indicate that the carrying capacity of the region is not sufficient to feed its existing population. More than that, the region is highly vulnerable to climatic crises. Frequent droughts represent a societal disaster. The business-as-usual scenario showed that the present population will increase from 42.5 million people in 1991 to 59.8 million in 2020, a 40% increase in about one generation. That means an increasing pressure on the fragile natural resources of the semiarid area. On the other hand, a trend analysis of variables like erosion, land degradation, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and use of water resources, indicate that natural resource productivity is likely to decrease in the future. That means a decrease in sustainability, an increase in
7
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
vulnerability, and more drastic impacts of future droughts. The future climate scenario for the Northeast, prepared by INPE (the Brazilian National Institute for Spatial Research), suggests that the region will suffer from more climate variability and droughts in the future (Nobre, 1994). This has an important consequence in terms of development policy. The sustainable development strategy for the Northeast must address not only the problems of the present, but also anticipate some of the serious problems of the future. In the case of Aridas, an impressive integrated planning process was set up. This included the participation of several agencies of the federal government of Brazil, under the guidance of the Ministry of Planning and several agencies of the Northeastern states, plus members of the Academy and civil society.
The crucial roles of government and civil society Planning for sustainable development is necessarily an all encompassing activity. It is not sustainable for the government to ignore civil society, just as it is not sustainable for civil society to ignore government. Government continues to play a very important role in development, but a different role from the one it played in the past. Rather than doing or deciding everything, the government must act as a lever. Similarly, the participation of a civil society — communities and different forms of societal NGOs — is a necessary condition for development to occur (Putnam, 1993; Serageldin, 1995). In the case of the Aridas project, the initial role of an NGO was the trigger for the whole process to happen. Another important aspect of the participation of the civil society relates to the nature of sustainable development itself. Sustainable development cannot be imposed. It has to be accepted, and incorporated by all segments of society, government, private sector, civic organizations, and individuals. Sustainable development requires a change of mindset. Planning for sustainable development can only be successful if it includes all of these, and if a process of building up political sustainability is part of the overall development strategy. Only under such circumstances it is possible to ask people to look beyond their present conditions to consider the concerns of the future. In a sense, promoting sustainability means promoting a change of the value systems of the society towards more spirituality.
The challenge of implementation Once the planning process reaches the point of policy formulation, including the identification of specific actions and institutional change, it is necessary to define an effective implementation process. The implementation process must include all stakeholders, in order to provide for continuous political sustainability. Accountability must be clearly defined, and enforcement mechanisms must be agreed upon. Commitment to results will depend, however, on the level of ownership with regard to each policy or programme, which requires clear definition of responsibilities. This has been, for instance, a problem with most National Commissions of Sustainable Development created in many countries after the Rio Summit.
8
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
Following the Aridas project, the State Ceara, in Brazil, prepared its sustainable development plan. Besides following the Aridas methodology and guidelines, the state plan went forward to define an implementation system that included the participation of several councils and committees with the representation of different stakeholders. Such a system has facilitated the decision-making process in the state, and has promoted sustainability the local decisions.
In conclusion A step forward has been made in terms of methodological framework of planning for sustainable development in a context of global environmental changes — in particular climate change. This methodology has been tested in Northeast Brazil. Although the methodological framework is now available, there are other conditions that need to be met before sustainable development planning is adopted in most countries. The main problem is lack of awareness. In most developing regions, it is very difficult to convince policy makers and the population at large to think about the future when they are not able to overcome their present pressing problems: starvation, poverty, political struggle, and social inequalities. Under these circumstances, a process of consciousness-raising must be put into action. It will be easier to convince the millions of people that are unable to look into the future if we are able to show them that a sustainable development strategy will also improve their conditions in the present, and that issues like climate change must be faced now, or otherwise there will be more poverty and hunger in the future. The conflict between the present and the future can be turned into an alliance to promote present and future sustainability.
References Daly, H. (1993) Sustainable growth: an impossibility theorem. In »aluing the Earth: Economics, Ecology, Ethics, ed. H. E. Daly and K. N. Townsend. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Downing, T. A. (1991) Assessing Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Famine: framework, concepts, and implications. Final Report of the US Agency for International Development, Famine Early Warning System Project, 30 January 1991. ICID-International Conference on Climate Impacts and Sustainable Development of Semiarid Regions (1996). Declaration of Fortaleza. In: Climate »ariability, Climate Change and Social »ulnerability in the Semi-arid ¹ropics, ed. J. C. Ribot, A. R. Magalha8 es and S. S. Panagides. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Magalha8 es, A. R. (ed.) (1997) Sustainable Development and ¼orld Peace. LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas. Magalha8 es, A. R. (1992) Understanding the implications of global warming in developing regions: the case of Northeast Brazil. In ¹he Regions and Global ¼arming: Impacts and Response Strategies. ed. J. Schmandt and S. J. Clarkson. Oxford University Press, New York. Magalha8 es, A. R., Panagides, S. S. and Neto, E. B. (1994) Project Aridas. Uma Estrategia de Desenvolvimento Sustenta´vel para o Nordeste. Documento Ba´sico (Aridas Project. A Strategy for the Sustainable Development of the Northeast. Basic Document). Secretaria de Planejamento da Presidencia da Republica and IICA-Interamerican Institute for Cooperation with Agriculture. Brasilia.
9
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es Nobre, P. (1994) Clima e Mudanias Clima´ticas no Nordeste (Climate and Climate Change in the Northeast). Projeto Aridas, Ministry of Planning and Budget, Brasilia (unpublished paper). Ostrom, E. (1990) Governing the Commons: ¹he Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Ostrom, E., Schroeder, L. and Wayne, S. (1993) Institutional Incentives and Sustainable Development, p. 1. Westview Press, Boulder, CO. Putnam, R. D. (1993) Making Democracy ¼ork: Civic ¹raditions in Modern Italy. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Ribot, J. C. (1996) Introduction, climate variability, climate change and vulnerability. Moving forward by looking backward. In Climate »ariability, Climate Change and Social »ulnerability in the Semi-arid ¹ropics. ed. J. C. Ribot, A. R. Magalha8 es and S. S. Panagides. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Serageldin, I. (1995) Sustainability and the wealth of nations: first steps in an ongoing journey. ¹he ¼orld Bank. ¹hird Annual ¼orld Bank Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development, Washington, September 1995. WCED-World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford (Brundtland Report).
10
PII: S0959-3780(98)00002-8
Viewpoint
Planning for sustainable development in the context of global change Antonio R Magalha8 es
Antonio R Magalha8 es can be contacted at SQS 315-Bolco-A-Ap.104 70384-010 Brasilia, DF Brazil Tel.: 00 5561 3291000; fax: 00 5561 3291010; e-mail: [email protected]
The issue One of the main features of this century is the post-war belief regarding the ability of nations to promote their economic and social development. Governments and international organizations assumed that they could foster the development of underdeveloped regions, and the academic community took over the task of developing a body of economic development theories to provide the foundations for economic development practice. The Marshall Plan represents an important benchmark in this regard. It proved that a well-established and funded development plan can be successful. The plan assumed that the lack of development was a result of the lack of physical capital (infrastructure, industries) following the war. Investing in new physical capital would provide the conditions for recovering the wellbeing of people. The Marshall Plan worked well in post-war Europe. The original success of the Marshall Plan led policy makers and the academic world to believe that it could be replicated in the developing world. However, in order for this to happen, two additional conditions should be met. First, as development is not a function of physical capital only, other forms of capital (present in Europe but not in many developing regions) are necessary for development to take place. These are: human and social capital (see Ostrom et al. 1993; Putnam, 1993; Serageldin, 1995). Second, the development process destroys natural capital and thus contains the roots for self-destruction in the long term. These are the so-called externalities of the development process; in other words, costs that are not appropriated by investors and are eventually shared by society as a whole. Sometimes the destruction of natural capital is visible, like soil erosion, water pollution, or deforestation. Other times, it appears as global externalities of the development process, such as green house gas (GHG) emissions that increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and cause global warming, and CFC emissions that destroy
1
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
the ozone layer, or transboundary transportation of substances that cause acid rain in other regions. As a consequence, the development process so far has been unsustainable, leading to local, regional and global changes in the environment. Some of these changes constitute a serious threat to life on earth. Devising ways to eliminate or compensate for the externalities that cause global environmental changes, while promoting economic and social development in favour of the poor, is a challenge for the present generation.
The recommendation In 1987, the Brundtland report (WCED, 1987) proposed the concept of sustainable development as the answer to the many problems of the traditional development process. Similarly the International Conference on Climate Impacts and Sustainable Development of Semiarid Regions (ICID) held in Fortaleza, Brazil, in 1992, advocated sustainable development as the appropriate tool for dealing with the problems of the poor and of the environment of the tropical semiarid regions. (ICID, Declaration of Fortaleza, 1996). The Rio Summit, in 1992, also endorsed this recommendation. During the Rio Summit the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and the Biodiversity Convention were signed, with the Desertification convention being signed a couple of years later. In short, sustainable development — development that meets the needs of the present generation while maintaining the conditions for future generations to meet their own needs — would not produce the externalities that bring about global (and local) environmental changes.
The problem The initial problem in following this recommendation was how to operationalize the concept of sustainable development. As it appeared in the Brundtland report and other United Nations documents, it served the political objective of calling the attention of the world to the problems of environmental degradation and of intra- and intergenerational equity. But it seemed almost useless for decision makers dealing with day-to-day decisions on new investments in infrastructure, education facilities, agricultural development, incentives to private sector development, etc. The second problem was how to incorporate the idea of environmental change — and particularly of global change — into development planning. Existing approaches to development planning rely heavily on the notion that investment in physical (and more recently in human) capital will lead to higher incomes and better living conditions for the target populations. During the last decade, the issue of local externalities — particularly the problem of pollution and other local environmental impacts — has begun to be considered in policy making; e.g. through environmental impact studies and public hearings to involve the local population in the decisionmaking process. But development planning has continued to ignore the issue of global externalities.
2
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
Planning for sustainable development has turned out to be a complex problem. First, because the decision makers involved in the process have to agree on their understanding of sustainable development. In many situations, the word ‘sustainable’ has been attached to ‘development’ without any real change in the process of development planning and practice, with politicians and decision makers willing to talk about sustainable development but not willing to change their mindset and their practices. There is no consensus on what sustainable development is. For instance, the Brundtland report, together with most policy recommendations coming out of the United Nation, the World Bank, or National Governments, assume that sustainable development involves continued economic growth ‘with the protection of the environment’. The World Bank, for instance, advocates sustainable development with ‘some depletion of natural capital’ provided that other forms of capital (social, human, physical) substitute for the loss of natural capital (Serageldin, 1995). They Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizes the need of the developing countries to grow economically, provided the industrialized world slows its growth rate in order to allow more room for the developing world. On the other hand, scholars like Daly advocate the idea of zero economic growth (Daly, 1993). Sustainable development should be qualitative, not quantitative. Under these circumstances, there is the need for a major redistribution of income from the industrialized to the developing world (or, otherwise, a process of population distribution from the developing world to the industrialized world will take place — something that challenges the conditions for world peace — see Magalha8 es, 1997). Sustainable development involves the need for conciliation and conflict resolution. The issue of distribution is inherent to the idea of sustainability: social and spatial distribution (sometimes beyond national frontiers) and intergenerational distribution. How can that be dealt with? This is a very important notion if one is concerned with planning for sustainable development. It raises the need for political sustainability, through a comprehensive process of stakeholder participation, as a requirement in the planning process. When planning for sustainability, development planners have to deal with questions that are not necessarily present at a political level. The concept of sustainable development is popular as a general objective of society: everyone is in favour of sustainability, less inequality, concern for children and grandchildren and living in harmony with nature and with each other. It is more difficult when one also has to deal with questions such as: is sustainable development possible? What is actually possible? Is sustainable development consistent, for instance, with regard to winners and losers, or to conflicting objectives between different societal groups, or different uses of the resources; is it consistent with the need to face the urgent social problems of hunger and famine in the world? Is it achievable. Should we aim at a sustainable world, or can we more modestly only think of a less unsustainable world?
The proposal In this Viewpoint I propose a methodology to introduce the idea of sustainability into the development planning process and, in
3
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
particular, I discuss a way of introducing the concern over future climate change into such a process. I argue that the methodological framework presented here can be replicated for other forms of global environmental change as well. This proposal is based on an earlier paper (Magalha8 es, 1992) and on the Project Aridas proposal (Magalha8 es et al., 1994). In an attempt to translate the concept of sustainability into one that is operational to use in development planning, the following definition has been adopted: ‘Sustainable development is development that lasts’. Of course, this definition needs further clarification. In a world of continuous technical and scientific progress, ‘to last’ does not mean to be unchangeable. The benefits of development must last, but ‘development’ may be continuously transformed internally. This definition should be applied every time a new investment decision is made. When deciding upon a particular project or policy, the question must be asked: is this project or policy sustainable? Will its results last over time? Will it reduce inequality and improve environmental quality? This means that every new project needs to undergo a process of social and environmental impact analysis with regard to local, regional and global impacts. In practice, it is difficult to deal with the concept of sustainability in its entirety. For the purpose of development planning, it is necessary to split it into at least four dimensions: social (poverty, inequality), economic (rate of return), environmental (conservation of natural resources, carrying capacity), and political (legitimacy, societal support). An assessment of each dimension must be made, before a comprehensive assessment is done. Also here, the planner and the decision maker will have to make choices. Sometimes, for instance, the social and environmental benefits will compensate for low economic sustainability, or even justify societal subsidies in order to assure global sustainability. The planning process itself requires the use of elements or tools: identification of key variables and construction of sustainable development indicators; use of scenarios, according to different methodologies; assessment of vulnerabilities and risk and impact analysis; goal setting; integration; and, last but not least, participation processes. The issue of global environmental change can thus be introduced as a risk of disruption to an existing or anticipated scenario of development. The risk of global warming, for instance, can be translated into specific climate change scenarios for a certain region (hence the need for regional scenarios). The planning process will ensure that impact assessments be developed, and adaptation and mitigation policies designed as components of the overall sustainable development plan. In the case of the developing world, and particularly of the semiarid regions of the tropical zone of the planet, where poverty, famine, conflict and environmental degradation come together, the issue of vulnerability is crucial. These are highly vulnerable regions, even without the threat of global change. Some of them, like the Subsaharan strip and the Brazilian Serta8 o, are unsustainable. The major indicator of sustainability (or its lack) is outmigration. These semiarid regions have proven historically that they cannot support their population — yet in many places the population is still growing rapidly. The combination of a large and growing population, the
4
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
associated economic and social activities, and a weak environment turn these regions into the most vulnerable ones in the world. The concept of vulnerability — as the incapacity to face any crisis — becomes a crucial concept for sustainable development planning. ‘Vulnerability is the risk that the household’s entitlements will fail to buffer against hunger, famine, dislocation or other losses. It is a relative measure of the household’s proneness to crisis’ (Ribot, 1996; Downing, 1991). In such circumstances, it is difficult to envisage the possibility of full sustainable development. However, it is always possible to improve the level of sustainability of the economy and society. It must be said that the contribution of these region to global change is small — in terms of GHG and CFC emissions, for instance — but it may be great in terms of social disruption and its consequence for other regions of the world.
The methodological framework The general methodological framework for sustainable development planning involves two parallel and interconnected processes: a technical process, with the participation of experts and planners; and a participatory process, with the participation of stakeholders. An initial process of participation and negotiation is necessary in order to create the constituency that will make the planning process itself feasible. In the case of the Aridas project, for the Semiarid Northeast of Brazil, this trial negotiation process was carried out by a non-governmental organisation (NGO), the Esquel Brasil Foundation following the ICID recommendation it took two years for Esquel to involve stakeholders from the Government — federal and most of the 10 Northeast States — the private sector, and civil society, and for them to agree on the project and to establish an administrative arrangement to implement the planning process. This negotiation phase was also one of consciousness raising and consensus building regarding the need for a sustainable development strategy. This process probably could not have been led by a governmental organization, or any large organization that lacks flexibility and commitment to the cause. It is an example of the role of civil society. During this negotiation process, the general framework methodology was developed, as well as the detailed terms of reference of the project (Magalha8 es et al., 1994). The framework methodology involved the following tasks: ¹ask 1: Assessment of the present state of sustainability in the region, including the economic, social, environmental, political and global dimensions. This requires the collection and organization of data, identitification of key variables and indicators of sustainability, and calculation of the indicators. ¹ask 2: Assessment of present vulnerability, with regard to the outcome of Task 1. Identification of vulnerable social groups, activities, and ecosystems. Assessment of environmental and social impacts, for instance, with regard to present climate variability. ¹ask 3: Assessment of lessons from present and past development policies and their social and environmental impacts. What are the conditions for a policy to be effective and politically sustainable. Analysis of replicability of the successful policies. ¹ask 4: Assessment of future sustainability, based on trends and expert advice with regard to a business-as-usual scenario. The future scenario
5
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
relies on the projection of key variables and indicators and must include an assessment of social, economic, environmental, political and global sustainability. A business-as-usual scenario should be designed for the time frame of one generation, at least, with some intermediate points. ¹ask 5: Assessment of vulnerability of the future business-as-usual scenario. In order to assess this task, two future climate scenarios must be designed. The first one, assuming no global change; the second, assuming global environmental change — and particularly climate change. A study of the impact of future climatic change on the future scenario must be carried out. ¹ask 6: Construction of a desired scenario, based on a comprehensive process of stakeholder participation. The outcome of this exercise is a scenario of the future that is desired by the society of the present. ¹ask 7: From a comparison between the present situation, the businessas-usual scenario and the desired scenario, plus the assessment of vulnerability in the present and in the future (including the possibility of climatic change) together with lessons from societal policies, it is possible to design a sustainable development strategy aiming at changing the path of the business-as-usual scenario towards the desired scenario. Again in this phase the stakeholder participation is necessary to assure the political sustainability of the resulting proposed strategies. This strategy will deal with the pressing problems of the present — the problems of underdevelopment and poverty, economic development, institutional development, and control of externalities such as industrial and water pollution. It will also deal with the distant problems of the future, as long as it shows the link between those problems and the present. For instance, climatic change in semiarid regions may, in some regions like the Brazilian Northeast, increase the probability of extreme drought events. Droughts are problems of the present, but the scenarios show that they may become worse in the future. How can that be dealt with in the context of present development planning? Planners and decision makers need to be aware that something must be done in order to increase local resilience to present and future droughts and to reduce the causes of climatic change.
How to introduce global change The preoccupation with climate or any other type of global change is thus introduced as an input to the planning process. Let us consider climate change. In the first stage, information on present climate variability is introduced into the analysis of present societal vulnerability. Climate impact studies and societal responses are most important. On the one hand, they provide the tools for dealing with the problem of present climate variability, and they provide evidence of the importance of such climate variability. On the other hand, they provide information on the nature of future impacts and of future responses. This means that future droughts caused by climate change may be more frequent, or more severe, but they will be of the same nature as present droughts. To prepare plans for present droughts will increase the capacity to cope with future droughts as well. In the second stage, climate variation information is introduced into the analysis of the future scenarios. The present pattern of climate
6
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
variability — assuming there will be no global climatic change in the future — is introduced into the future business-as-usual scenario. Planners and decision makers will be able to assess what the impacts of climate variability will be in the future. Assuming that there will be no climatic change does not mean that the impacts will be the same as in the present. That will depend on the degree of vulnerability of the business-as-usual scenario. If more environmental degradation and more pressure on the environment and natural resources are foreseen, the impacts of present climate variability will be more serious. If, on the other hand, there is already greater concern with regard to environmental degradation, and if there are actions aimed at reducing vulnerability in the future, it is possible that the future society will be less sensitive to the existing patterns of climate variability. The third stage is to assume that there will be climate change. Take, for instance, the IPCC scenarios. In this case, the next step is to build a scenario of climate change applied to the specific region. This is not an easy task, because it depends on the availability of regional studies based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) coupled with local geographical information. The IPCC has not prepared scenarios for all regions and, even for those regions where there are regional climatic scenarios, the local resolution is not totally credible. So one has to be cautious when using such scenarios, particularly when informing policy makers about the result of the analysis. Policy makers must be continuously reminded that scenarios are not predictions: they are based on assumptions, and if the assumptions change, the results will also change. The use of climatic impact and scenario analysis will provide policy makers with the information that they need to plan for reducing the causes of climatic change, increasing societal resilience to such changes if they ever occur — and hence increasing resilience to present climatic variability — and reducing the adverse impacts of those changes. The underlying assumption of this is that sustainable development implies an increase of resilience and reduction of vulnerability to global environmental changes, as well as reduction of the causes of such changes. Within the framework of a sustainable development strategy, specific actions must be adopted with regard to these objectives.
The case of the Aridas Project in Brazil The Aridas project adopted the methodology described above for the semiarid Northeast region of Brazil. At the moment, the development of the Northeast is not sustainable. Main indicators are the level of poverty and migration from the rural zones, which indicate that the carrying capacity of the region is not sufficient to feed its existing population. More than that, the region is highly vulnerable to climatic crises. Frequent droughts represent a societal disaster. The business-as-usual scenario showed that the present population will increase from 42.5 million people in 1991 to 59.8 million in 2020, a 40% increase in about one generation. That means an increasing pressure on the fragile natural resources of the semiarid area. On the other hand, a trend analysis of variables like erosion, land degradation, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and use of water resources, indicate that natural resource productivity is likely to decrease in the future. That means a decrease in sustainability, an increase in
7
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
vulnerability, and more drastic impacts of future droughts. The future climate scenario for the Northeast, prepared by INPE (the Brazilian National Institute for Spatial Research), suggests that the region will suffer from more climate variability and droughts in the future (Nobre, 1994). This has an important consequence in terms of development policy. The sustainable development strategy for the Northeast must address not only the problems of the present, but also anticipate some of the serious problems of the future. In the case of Aridas, an impressive integrated planning process was set up. This included the participation of several agencies of the federal government of Brazil, under the guidance of the Ministry of Planning and several agencies of the Northeastern states, plus members of the Academy and civil society.
The crucial roles of government and civil society Planning for sustainable development is necessarily an all encompassing activity. It is not sustainable for the government to ignore civil society, just as it is not sustainable for civil society to ignore government. Government continues to play a very important role in development, but a different role from the one it played in the past. Rather than doing or deciding everything, the government must act as a lever. Similarly, the participation of a civil society — communities and different forms of societal NGOs — is a necessary condition for development to occur (Putnam, 1993; Serageldin, 1995). In the case of the Aridas project, the initial role of an NGO was the trigger for the whole process to happen. Another important aspect of the participation of the civil society relates to the nature of sustainable development itself. Sustainable development cannot be imposed. It has to be accepted, and incorporated by all segments of society, government, private sector, civic organizations, and individuals. Sustainable development requires a change of mindset. Planning for sustainable development can only be successful if it includes all of these, and if a process of building up political sustainability is part of the overall development strategy. Only under such circumstances it is possible to ask people to look beyond their present conditions to consider the concerns of the future. In a sense, promoting sustainability means promoting a change of the value systems of the society towards more spirituality.
The challenge of implementation Once the planning process reaches the point of policy formulation, including the identification of specific actions and institutional change, it is necessary to define an effective implementation process. The implementation process must include all stakeholders, in order to provide for continuous political sustainability. Accountability must be clearly defined, and enforcement mechanisms must be agreed upon. Commitment to results will depend, however, on the level of ownership with regard to each policy or programme, which requires clear definition of responsibilities. This has been, for instance, a problem with most National Commissions of Sustainable Development created in many countries after the Rio Summit.
8
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es
Following the Aridas project, the State Ceara, in Brazil, prepared its sustainable development plan. Besides following the Aridas methodology and guidelines, the state plan went forward to define an implementation system that included the participation of several councils and committees with the representation of different stakeholders. Such a system has facilitated the decision-making process in the state, and has promoted sustainability the local decisions.
In conclusion A step forward has been made in terms of methodological framework of planning for sustainable development in a context of global environmental changes — in particular climate change. This methodology has been tested in Northeast Brazil. Although the methodological framework is now available, there are other conditions that need to be met before sustainable development planning is adopted in most countries. The main problem is lack of awareness. In most developing regions, it is very difficult to convince policy makers and the population at large to think about the future when they are not able to overcome their present pressing problems: starvation, poverty, political struggle, and social inequalities. Under these circumstances, a process of consciousness-raising must be put into action. It will be easier to convince the millions of people that are unable to look into the future if we are able to show them that a sustainable development strategy will also improve their conditions in the present, and that issues like climate change must be faced now, or otherwise there will be more poverty and hunger in the future. The conflict between the present and the future can be turned into an alliance to promote present and future sustainability.
References Daly, H. (1993) Sustainable growth: an impossibility theorem. In »aluing the Earth: Economics, Ecology, Ethics, ed. H. E. Daly and K. N. Townsend. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. Downing, T. A. (1991) Assessing Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Famine: framework, concepts, and implications. Final Report of the US Agency for International Development, Famine Early Warning System Project, 30 January 1991. ICID-International Conference on Climate Impacts and Sustainable Development of Semiarid Regions (1996). Declaration of Fortaleza. In: Climate »ariability, Climate Change and Social »ulnerability in the Semi-arid ¹ropics, ed. J. C. Ribot, A. R. Magalha8 es and S. S. Panagides. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Magalha8 es, A. R. (ed.) (1997) Sustainable Development and ¼orld Peace. LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas. Magalha8 es, A. R. (1992) Understanding the implications of global warming in developing regions: the case of Northeast Brazil. In ¹he Regions and Global ¼arming: Impacts and Response Strategies. ed. J. Schmandt and S. J. Clarkson. Oxford University Press, New York. Magalha8 es, A. R., Panagides, S. S. and Neto, E. B. (1994) Project Aridas. Uma Estrategia de Desenvolvimento Sustenta´vel para o Nordeste. Documento Ba´sico (Aridas Project. A Strategy for the Sustainable Development of the Northeast. Basic Document). Secretaria de Planejamento da Presidencia da Republica and IICA-Interamerican Institute for Cooperation with Agriculture. Brasilia.
9
Sustainable development: A R MagalhaJ es Nobre, P. (1994) Clima e Mudanias Clima´ticas no Nordeste (Climate and Climate Change in the Northeast). Projeto Aridas, Ministry of Planning and Budget, Brasilia (unpublished paper). Ostrom, E. (1990) Governing the Commons: ¹he Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Ostrom, E., Schroeder, L. and Wayne, S. (1993) Institutional Incentives and Sustainable Development, p. 1. Westview Press, Boulder, CO. Putnam, R. D. (1993) Making Democracy ¼ork: Civic ¹raditions in Modern Italy. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ. Ribot, J. C. (1996) Introduction, climate variability, climate change and vulnerability. Moving forward by looking backward. In Climate »ariability, Climate Change and Social »ulnerability in the Semi-arid ¹ropics. ed. J. C. Ribot, A. R. Magalha8 es and S. S. Panagides. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Serageldin, I. (1995) Sustainability and the wealth of nations: first steps in an ongoing journey. ¹he ¼orld Bank. ¹hird Annual ¼orld Bank Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development, Washington, September 1995. WCED-World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our Common Future. Oxford University Press, Oxford (Brundtland Report).
10