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Planning for water resources
Planning for Water Resources
65
Planning for Water Resources Douglas Perret *
In this article the author describes some of the problems of planning for water resources, and the way in which the recently established Thames Water Authority has organized itself to deal with them. He demonstrates that water resource planning is involved with the whole of the water cycle, and is largely concerned with harnessing and controlling natural phenomena in situations of uncertainty.
In the British Isles the gentle rain falleth from heaven in abundance and at no cost to the consumer. Why then should anyone waste their time planning for water resources? The Ancient Mariner had a foretaste of what would happen without adequate planning-‘Water water everywhere, nor any drop to drink’. It is true that the total long-term rainfall in the British Isles is more than sufficient to meet all reasonable requirements for water in the foreseeable future. This situation is easily and convincingly demonstrated, and having been established does not need continual reexamination. Table 1 indicates a comparison between averge rainfall and demands for water in this c0untry.l The demand included is for public water supply only. Additional water is consumed by the CEGB and other *Douglas Perret is Assistant Director, Corporate Planning, Thames Water Authority.
direct industrial abstracters, but is largely returned near to the point of abstraction. The figure corresponding to column 6 for Thames Water alone approaches 40 per cent, but because Thames re-uses water downstream the effective quantity of available water is increased. Unfortunately rain does not always fall in the right place at the right time. Figure 1 shows the long term average annual residual rainfall across the country. It can be seen that the available rainfall decreases from west to east across England and Wales. By comparing this with Figure 2, which shows population density across the country, it is apparent that high populations are often in areas of low rainfall. On average there would still be sufficient rainfall everywhere if it fell evenly throughout the year. Unfortunately this is not always the case, as shown in Figure 3, which gives the rainfall in May 1976 as a percentage of the monthly average. Across the whole country this ranges from 250 to 25 per cent. When rain does fall it is not necessarily available for use by mankind, and can easily become a carrier of all sorts of diseases. On the whole nature does quite a good job in supplying fresh water, as rain, snow or dew, in storing it, either above ground in lakes and ponds, or below ground in porous rocks. Distribution and
Table 1. Regional rainfall, available water and demands Area characteristics (I)
Dry Intermediate Wet
Average effective precipitation (mm) (2)
Average available water (mcmd) (3)
670 810 1250
200 400 800
26.8 60.3 104.3
5.3 5.0 3.8
20% 8% 4%
191.4
14.1
7%
Total Notes (1)
(2)
(3)
Demand : available water ratio per cent
Average annual precipitation (mm)
Average 1971 demand (mcmd)
‘Dry’ comprises Thames, Anglian and Southern Water Authority areas. ‘Wet’ comprises North-West, South-West and Welsh. ‘Intermediate’ comprises Northumbrian, Yorkshire, Severn-Trent and Wessex. ‘Effective precipitation’ is the total precipitation minus the evaporation and evapotranspiration. It is thus the best estimate of water becoming available on or under the ground. Some evaporation and evapotranspiration is included in the figures for demand, e.g. for spraying crops. mcmd : million cubic metres per day.
66
Long
Range
Planning
Vol. 10
April
q
1977
Less Than 200 mm
Greater Than 200%
200mm to 700 mm
cl
Greater Than 700 Less Than 50%
20 0 20406080
Figure 1. Average and Wales
annual
residual
100 Kilometres
rainfall
q
z;$;n
in England
100 People
100 to 200 People per km2
E
More Than 200 People per km’
00 Kilometres
Figure 3. Rainfall in May 1976 as a percentage monthly average for 1916-50
of the
Water resource planning is the process of establishing an efficient long-term balance between those demands which are not met naturally and the supply of water. It is not an artificial process, but one of harnessing, controlling and supplementing commonplace natural phenomena. It has a continuous history since mankind first sunk wells, dammed streams or dug drainage and irrigation ditches. Recent advances in water resource have not followed technological breakplanning throughs, but rather a growing application of management methods and techniques, bringing together previously fragmented sections of the water industry, and applying more rigorous analysis to the many complex alternative solutions. For the foreseeable future there is one very simple solution to water resource problems-that is to provide more and more, bigger and bigger reservoirs, with an abundance of interlinked purification and distribution systems. The principal objections are economic and environmental, with the result that careful planning is needed.
Figure
2. Population
densities
in England
and Wales
disposal are provided by rivers, and purification by filtration through the ground, oxidation by contact with the air or bacteria and distillation by evaporation.
In this country water has traditionally been cheap. It is generally true to say that until recently the cost of meeting even the most extravagant demands has been fairly insignificant. For many years the majority of householders have taken it for granted that they can turn on a tap at any time of the day, or year, and obtain limitless quantities of cool, fresh, potable water. The water will be the same quality whether they wish to use it for drinking, flushing toilets, or watering
Planning for Water Resources gardens-and the amount of money they pay will not, apparently, depend on the quantity of water they use. Not only has the supply of water been takeu for granted, but its disposal has been unobtrusive. People know that there are such things as sewers and sewage treatment works, but not many people know where the water flows once it has gone down the drain, nor where it reappears on the surface of the land. In many ways it is desirable that we should be able to be so complacemcnt about our water supply and its disposal. However, this complacency has been dependent on a system of subsidized or indirect charging which has masked the true cost. Also, many of the base-load requirements have been provided by nature free of charge. As demand continues to exceed natural, free supply, the marginal cost of the next increment provided becomes very important. The ability to investigate and choose between alternatives involving complex relationships and dependent on estimation of risk has been made possible by the development of the use of computers, providing the initial data is available. In the past this data has not always been available, but much work has been carried out in the past few years to remedy this situation. The ability to plan on a comprehensive and integrated basis has also been assisted by the reorganization of the water industry.
Legislation
and Reorganizations
The water industry has never been static. Both water supply and sewage disposal have been subject to constant changes of responsibility. The general tendency has been for more legislation and the formation of larger control units, varying from local and regional water and drainage boards to national organizations. The 1945 Water Act2 required the Minister of Housing and Local Govermnent to promote the conservation and proper use of water resources and the provision of water supplies in England and Wales, and to secure the effective execution by water undertakers, under his control and direction, of a national policy relating to water. The 1948 River Boards Act3 provided for the transfer to river boards of functions relating to land drainage, fisheries, river pollution and navigation. The 1963 Water Resources Act4 created river authorities and gave them the responsibility for taking action to conserve, redistribute or augment water resources in their area. In order to do so they were required to carry out a survey of water resources, and of e&sting demand on these resources by statutory water undertakers and others. They were also required to prepare forecasts of future demand and proposals for action. The Act also created a Water Resources Board which had the duty of advising river authorities and the
67
Minister of Housing and Local Government on matters concerned with water resources. It consolidated many of the peripheral activities covered by previous Acts. It did not give the new boards responsibilities for water supply or sewage disposal. Early in 1971 the Central Advisory Water Committee reported on the future management of water.5 They recommended that water resources could best be planned over England and Wales as a whole, and suggested that this should be achieved by the formulation of a national plan. This plan would provide the strategy within which more detailed planning, and subsequent executive action could proceed. It should take account of water quality as well as quantity. This report was followed by the 1973 Water Act6 which brought about a major reorganization of water services, including the creation of nine regional water authorities in England, and the Welsh National Water Development Authority. Each regional water authority took over the responsibilities of the river authorities, water undertakers and local authorities in relation to sewerage and sewage disposal. Water Companies remained independent in many respects, but were agents of the water authorities in others and many district authorities became agents for local sewers. Generally speaking the regional water authorities became responsible for water resources; water supply; sewerage; sewage disposal; the prevention of pollution; land drainage; flood protection; fisheries and the recreational and amenity use of their water space, including navigation in some cases. The complete hydrological cycle was now the responsibility of one authority for each main river basin, enabling planning to be carried out on a wider basis than just water resources. The 1973 Act also brought about the creation of the National Water Council to act as a forum for the regional water authorities and to assist in inter-regional matters. At the time of writing it is too early to discuss the latest Government proposals for the water industry outlined in their Green Paper.
Organization
for Planning
The ten regional water authorities created on 1st April, 1974 in England and Wales by the 1973 Water Act have adopted individual organizations and approaches to planning. For the purposes of illustration the author deals with the one most familiar to him-Thames Water. The Thames region covers the catchment of the River Thames, an area of 13,100 square kilometres extending from the scarp of the Cotswolds in the west to Gravesend in the east, and from Banbury and Luton in the north to the North Hampshire and Marlborough Downs in the south. Twelve million people live in the region, mainly in the east in London and its surroundings.
68
April 1977
Long Range Planning Vol. 10
lapping and interaction of tasks. An indication organization is given in Figure 6.
The Thames Water Authority consists of the Chairman and 57 members, of whom 36 are nominated by local authorities, 17 are appointed by the Secretary of State for the Environment and 4 are appointed by the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The full Authority meets six times a year, mainly to consider recommendations put to it, via the Policy and Resources Committee, by the other Committees shown in Figure 4.
of the
The Strategic Plan Group The main purpose of the Strategic Plan Group is to identify the set of strategies that will meet the long term objectives of the Authority at the lowest financial and social cost and to set these out in a framework-the Strategic Plan, that will aid the establishment of a detailed programme of development and provide the guidelines for decision on individual projects. The Strategic Plan will identify both the state that the organization will aim to achieve in the long run and the most efficient development path for achieving it.
The Chief Executive and Directors implement the Authority’s policies through a management structure which is calculated to combine efficiency with local initiative. Each Director has a small staff, headed by Assistant Directors, covering the areas for which regional control and co-ordination are essential. Each of the nine operating Divisions is headed by a Manager who has intimate knowledge of his own sphere of operations, and is responsible to the Directors for the effective management of his Division. An indication of the organization is given in Figure 5.
Strategic planning is a continuous process and although there are clearly definable steps and a natural order to them, considerable recycling through the steps is normally necessary. The main steps in the process are:
The Director of Planning’s responsibilities to the Authority through the Management Board can be divided into four spheres of planning activity:
(a) to determine
(a) the setting and quantifying
(c) to determine the objectives of the organization in terms of the positions that should be reached on a set of objective scales;
(b) to determine organization;
of objectives;
(b) the translation of objectives into regional and divisional output requirements for water supply, for river quality, for flood prevention standards etc.,
regional,
county
Water
Authority
I
9 Members
23 Members
I
I
Fisheries and Recreation Committee 16 Members
Water Management Committee 19 Members
and Two Sub-
Figure 4. Thames Water committee
Finance Sub Committee
Policy and Resources Committee
1
structure
on
the
An important early task is to describe the current system and to determine the set of scales that will be used to measure the achievement of the Authority’s objectives. In the medium term, the Group aims to develop a modelling capability for evaluating the
Chairman and 57 Members
Quality Advisory Panel
goals; constraints
(f) to monitor the implementation of the plan including the achievement of objectives and to update the plan as required.
The Planning Directorate is composed of a number of groups, some of which, such as Administration and Press and Publicity, are not relevant to the present discussion. The other groups are the responsibility of the Assistant Director Corporate Planning. Each group consists of a handful of staff, and the boundaries between groups are not precisely defined, to allow for over-
1
external
(e) to produce the Strategic Plan as a basis for more detailed planning and implementation, and
and district
Thamea
the
(d) to identify, analyse and evaluate alternative strategies for achieving objectives and to select the preferred alternative;
(c) the task of identifying regional policy alternatives for all the Authority’s functions, but particularly for water resources developments; (d) liaison with national, authorities.
the organizational
Regional Land Drainage Committee 21 Members
Planning for Water Resources
69
-------_---------
r----
1 The Corporate Management Team
i
Chief Executive
I
I
1
I
Operations
The Solicitor
Assistant
The Surveyor Direators Personnel (Staff)
I
i-7-----j
Personnel (Industrial)
--_---
.--_
----
FEZ2 p&q-
1
I
L-----__---__
----------__,J
Figure 5. Thames Water management
structure
implications of alternative development strategies in terms of their effects on the objective scales and on the costs of the organization. Much of the modelling work may be performed outside the Strategic Plan Group, but the Group will need to co-ordinate the models to ensure that they can be suitably linked and provide the appropriate outputs. It is in this Group
particularly
that there is need to
consider the interactions between the different functions of the water cycle. One result of the sewage purification function is to supply water, in a controlled state of impurity, to a river which has amenity functions, but also acts as a carrier of water to an abstraction point from which the water is ultimately supplied for human consumption. It is clear that there can be a balance between the amount of treatment given to sewage before it is discharged to a river and the amount of
rl
Director of Planning
-7 Assistant Director Corporate Plannino
1-I
Manager Economic Studies
These two functions will normally be carried out in liaison with Divisional Managers
Figure 6. Thames Water planning organization
I
Manager Press and Publicity
Manager H.Q. Admin.
70
Long Range
Planning
Vol. 10
April
1977
treatment given to river water after it has been abstracted. It is perhaps less clear that there is a balance between the amount of recreation catered for at a reservoir and the amount of research carried out into ground water pollution. There is a balance between them, however, even if it is only the amount money available from a limited purse.
of
sewer being laid. This new take flows from an existing replacement.
Table
2. Main
purposes
sewer sewer
can also be used to which is in need of
of schemes
(1) (2)
The Development
Plan Group
The purpose of the Development Plan Group is to bring together proposals for future work from different parts of the Authority, to assess their relative merits in terms of the output of the Strategic Plan Group, and to assemble agreed proposals in an annually produced plan. This plan covers the medium term, of at least 5 years, and includes all development proposals from inception, resulting in major proposals being considered for a future period of much greater than 5 years. The Development Plan is intended to state the commitment of expenditure and other resources towards fulfilling the Authority’s objectives. The main responsibility involves the preparation in conjunction with the Directorate of Finance of the annual Development/Budget Plan and includes the following activities : (a) assembling and Authority work identified needs;
evaluating including
proposals for future solutions to regionally
(b) preparing reports to Government future capital programmes;
departments
on
(c) developing measures of output to evaluate specific schemes and the total plan against objectives, and (d) developing link.
an analytical
capital/revenue
programme
Close liaison is necessary with the Authority’s directorates and operating divisions. Their proposals are considered against competing needs, overall policy and standards of service of the Authority. The Group has to deal with the 14 counties whose administrative areas are partly within the Thames Water boundary concerning their structure plans and with some 100 district and borough councils over general planning matters which will affect the Development Plan. Proposals for capital expenditure greatly exceed the ability or willingness of the Authority to spend money. The annual capital budget is currently of the order of L80 million, but if all aspirations involving capital expenditure were to be met it would be double this figure. At present some 1000 schemes, each estimated to cost over ~150,000, are held on a computer based index. All schemes are classified in terms of function and purpose, and their proportionate contribution to replacement, improvement or growth, amongst many other things. Table 2 gives an indication of the sort of purposes to which schemes can be assigned. In many cases schemes have more than one purpose. For instance, a new housing development may necessitate a new
To maintain or replace the existing system. To provide for growth in demand by the existing consumers. (3) To improve the present levels of service. (4) To serve new housing development. (5) To serve new industrial development. (6) To meet public health requirements. (7) To improve the quality of rivers for potable water supply. (8) To improve the quality of other non-tidal rivers. (9) To improve the quality of estuarial waters and beaches. (10) To improve the quality of coastal waters and beaches. (11) To increase operating efficiency. (12) To provide first time services to existing properties. (13) To improve recreation and amenity facilities.
The Economic
Studies Group
The Group is responsible for organizing economic studies, for carrying out economic analyses and for giving economic advice to other Groups. The Group has a specific responsibility for producing forecasts of the demand for all services provided by the Authority. These forecasts will be used as inputs to the Strategic and Development Plans. The forecasts produced in connection with the Development Plan will specify the output requirements which Divisions are to meet in the medium term. These requirements will be quantified where possible, and will indicate the geographical distribution of expected demands. Development proposals will need to be justified against these demand forecasts and output requirements. The forecasts will have regard to future charging policy. The Group will also advise on methods of appraisal of capital projects. It will be responsible for providing briefing on the general economic when required, situation as it affects the Authority. Because of the current state of the art it is necessary to describe this Group’s activities in terms of future achievements. The functions carried out by water authorities have been performed for a long time, but there is remarkably lit& quantified information available. There are myths and traditional beliefs, but few statistics. At the time of formation of the Regional Water Authorities there was no reliable information on such basic matters as how many baths were taken by people or per household, and how much water was used per bath. It was generally agreed that in times of difficulty one could reduce consumption by banning the use of hosepipes, or preventing the washing of cars. However, no one had any reasonable measure of the effect of such bans, and conversely there was very
Planning for Water Resources little information to indicate the relationship increased water consumption and prolonged spells.
between dry, hot
A great deal of work is now being carried out all over the country to assemble adequate basic information. Some of the work consists of direct measurement, and some consists of censuses and interviewing of representative samples. Until there is a very wide base for new information it might be less accurate than the estimates based on informed opinion and experience which previously existed.
The Central
Information
Group
The main task of the Central Information Group is to develop, manage and maintain a management information system. This can be described as a system whose objective is the provision to managers, who make decisions on the effective allocation of resources, of information concerning the internal activities of the organization and its external environment. The Group is responsible for producing the information content of the Authority’s annual reports and statistical digests. It also handles the statistical returns to outside agencies and Government departments and advises on the means of obtaining access to reference library information and relevant data banks. A lot of work has gone into establishing a personnel data base. The constituent parts of the Authority have kept their own clerical records but these have had to be put together in a common format for storage by computer. Once established, regular updating will be essential to record for instance when staff leave or are promoted.
(e) providing a mathematical modelling other parts of the Directorate.
capability
71 to
The aim of much of the Group’s work is to establish efficient and economic systems within the Authority. In some cases this involves personnel matters and the results of investigations can often be very sensitive. The analytical results may therefore have to be modified to produce an acceptable solution rather than the ideal one. The operational research approach has brought a new dimension to many of the areas of the Authority’s work. Previously many operations were carried out in the way considered best based only upon personal opinion. Analytical investigation often results in better organization and more economic working, both in financial terms and also in terms of other resources such as materials.
The Water
Resources
Group
This Group is an important sub-group of the Operational Research Group. Unlike the main groups it has only been in existence since the middle of 1976. Its main task is to evaluate future options for water resources and to make recommendations to the Authority.
I E X == .
Natural Inflow Effluent Return Flow Gauging Flow Constraint Pump
Banbury
Cotswold
The Operational
Research
Demand
Group
The purpose of the Operational Research Group is to act as a service unit to the Authority in general and to the Directorate of Planning in particular. The aim of the Group is to establish a close involvement with those decision processes concerning the efficient deployment of the Authority’s resources by providing an analytical approach to the appraisal of present and future policy. Whilst in the main this involves ad hoc studies arising either from other Groups within the Directorate or from external Authority sources, it also contains longer term studies of a more fundamental nature initiated by the Group itself. Examples of the work are: (a) specification
of the Authority’s
computing
(c) the instigation of a land-use survey, leading in the longer term to a rationalization of land assets; studies, and
!?I Oolites-
policy;
(b) a specific investigation of sludge disposal practice, leading in the longer term to an appraisal of the overall sludge disposal policy and practices;
(d) transport management
Centre
Newbridge
Figure 7. Section of schematic Water’s resource system
drawing
of Thames
72
Long Range Planning Vol. 10
April 1977
The first task for the Group is to build a model of the present water resource system. Figure 7 illustrates a small portion of this model and shows the complexity of even a small part of the system. A computer will be used to simulate this system based on the schematic model. This can be used to evaluate the effect of certain flow conditions on reservoir levels and river flows.
tion further downstream for water supply. This effectively increases the available resources and can significantly reduce the capital expenditure needed to provide for future resource requirements. Figure 8 shows part of a plan of the Thames area with abstraction points downstream of sewage treatment works’ outfalls.
Objectives need to be established for the standard of service we want to maintain, before the model can be used to determine future water resource requirements. Greater security in the water supply system can often only be achieved through enormous capital expenditure with consequent increases in charges. It is not fully known to what extent the public will tolerate increased charges rather than face inconvenience during an occasional drought.
By simulating drought conditions, the model can be used to highlight deficiencies in the existing system. It can also be used to test various optional solutions to the problem. It is not possible to go into great detail about modelling water resource systems in this paper, but the subject is more fully covered elsewhere.7
Another important input to the model to be supplied by the Economic Studies Group is the forecasts of demand and population for each water supply area. This not only affects the water resource requirements, but will also fix the timing of any improvements to be made.
Natural floods and droughts will continue to occur. They can be catastrophic, and in many parts of the world regularly cause immense suffering and loss of life. The public of th’IS country is largely protected against their worst effects. The cost of providing water resources to meet growing demand is out of proportion to the historic cost of satisfying current needs. The additional cost of providing greater security against the consequences of less frequent occurrences is so great that it cannot be taken for granted that it is justified. The use and re-use of the water in our rivers has become so complex that it is no longer reasonable to consider different sequences of the water cycle as if they were independent. Consideration of the relative merits of different proposals and their interaction requires the use of mathematical modelling.
Many other factors need to be taken into account. Improved effluent quality from treatment works can facilitate high proportions being recycled by abstrac-
Conclusions
References
A 0
0
Sewage River
Treatment
Works
Abstraction Points
Flow Gauging
Figure 8. Part of Thames system
(1)
Water Resources in England Board, H MSO, 1974.
(2)
WaterAct
(3)
River Boards Act (1948)
(4)
Water Resources Act (1963)
(5)
The future Management of Water in England and Central Advisory Water Committee, H MSO, 1971.
(6)
WaterAct
(7)
The Hydrological Design of Water-Resource Systems, Jamieson, Radford and Sexton, Water Resources Board, HMSO, 1974.
Stations
Water’s plan of the river
(1945)
(1973)
and
Wales, Water
Resources
HMSO. HMSO. HMSO. Wales,
HMSO.
65
Planning for Water Resources Douglas Perret *
In this article the author describes some of the problems of planning for water resources, and the way in which the recently established Thames Water Authority has organized itself to deal with them. He demonstrates that water resource planning is involved with the whole of the water cycle, and is largely concerned with harnessing and controlling natural phenomena in situations of uncertainty.
In the British Isles the gentle rain falleth from heaven in abundance and at no cost to the consumer. Why then should anyone waste their time planning for water resources? The Ancient Mariner had a foretaste of what would happen without adequate planning-‘Water water everywhere, nor any drop to drink’. It is true that the total long-term rainfall in the British Isles is more than sufficient to meet all reasonable requirements for water in the foreseeable future. This situation is easily and convincingly demonstrated, and having been established does not need continual reexamination. Table 1 indicates a comparison between averge rainfall and demands for water in this c0untry.l The demand included is for public water supply only. Additional water is consumed by the CEGB and other *Douglas Perret is Assistant Director, Corporate Planning, Thames Water Authority.
direct industrial abstracters, but is largely returned near to the point of abstraction. The figure corresponding to column 6 for Thames Water alone approaches 40 per cent, but because Thames re-uses water downstream the effective quantity of available water is increased. Unfortunately rain does not always fall in the right place at the right time. Figure 1 shows the long term average annual residual rainfall across the country. It can be seen that the available rainfall decreases from west to east across England and Wales. By comparing this with Figure 2, which shows population density across the country, it is apparent that high populations are often in areas of low rainfall. On average there would still be sufficient rainfall everywhere if it fell evenly throughout the year. Unfortunately this is not always the case, as shown in Figure 3, which gives the rainfall in May 1976 as a percentage of the monthly average. Across the whole country this ranges from 250 to 25 per cent. When rain does fall it is not necessarily available for use by mankind, and can easily become a carrier of all sorts of diseases. On the whole nature does quite a good job in supplying fresh water, as rain, snow or dew, in storing it, either above ground in lakes and ponds, or below ground in porous rocks. Distribution and
Table 1. Regional rainfall, available water and demands Area characteristics (I)
Dry Intermediate Wet
Average effective precipitation (mm) (2)
Average available water (mcmd) (3)
670 810 1250
200 400 800
26.8 60.3 104.3
5.3 5.0 3.8
20% 8% 4%
191.4
14.1
7%
Total Notes (1)
(2)
(3)
Demand : available water ratio per cent
Average annual precipitation (mm)
Average 1971 demand (mcmd)
‘Dry’ comprises Thames, Anglian and Southern Water Authority areas. ‘Wet’ comprises North-West, South-West and Welsh. ‘Intermediate’ comprises Northumbrian, Yorkshire, Severn-Trent and Wessex. ‘Effective precipitation’ is the total precipitation minus the evaporation and evapotranspiration. It is thus the best estimate of water becoming available on or under the ground. Some evaporation and evapotranspiration is included in the figures for demand, e.g. for spraying crops. mcmd : million cubic metres per day.
66
Long
Range
Planning
Vol. 10
April
q
1977
Less Than 200 mm
Greater Than 200%
200mm to 700 mm
cl
Greater Than 700 Less Than 50%
20 0 20406080
Figure 1. Average and Wales
annual
residual
100 Kilometres
rainfall
q
z;$;n
in England
100 People
100 to 200 People per km2
E
More Than 200 People per km’
00 Kilometres
Figure 3. Rainfall in May 1976 as a percentage monthly average for 1916-50
of the
Water resource planning is the process of establishing an efficient long-term balance between those demands which are not met naturally and the supply of water. It is not an artificial process, but one of harnessing, controlling and supplementing commonplace natural phenomena. It has a continuous history since mankind first sunk wells, dammed streams or dug drainage and irrigation ditches. Recent advances in water resource have not followed technological breakplanning throughs, but rather a growing application of management methods and techniques, bringing together previously fragmented sections of the water industry, and applying more rigorous analysis to the many complex alternative solutions. For the foreseeable future there is one very simple solution to water resource problems-that is to provide more and more, bigger and bigger reservoirs, with an abundance of interlinked purification and distribution systems. The principal objections are economic and environmental, with the result that careful planning is needed.
Figure
2. Population
densities
in England
and Wales
disposal are provided by rivers, and purification by filtration through the ground, oxidation by contact with the air or bacteria and distillation by evaporation.
In this country water has traditionally been cheap. It is generally true to say that until recently the cost of meeting even the most extravagant demands has been fairly insignificant. For many years the majority of householders have taken it for granted that they can turn on a tap at any time of the day, or year, and obtain limitless quantities of cool, fresh, potable water. The water will be the same quality whether they wish to use it for drinking, flushing toilets, or watering
Planning for Water Resources gardens-and the amount of money they pay will not, apparently, depend on the quantity of water they use. Not only has the supply of water been takeu for granted, but its disposal has been unobtrusive. People know that there are such things as sewers and sewage treatment works, but not many people know where the water flows once it has gone down the drain, nor where it reappears on the surface of the land. In many ways it is desirable that we should be able to be so complacemcnt about our water supply and its disposal. However, this complacency has been dependent on a system of subsidized or indirect charging which has masked the true cost. Also, many of the base-load requirements have been provided by nature free of charge. As demand continues to exceed natural, free supply, the marginal cost of the next increment provided becomes very important. The ability to investigate and choose between alternatives involving complex relationships and dependent on estimation of risk has been made possible by the development of the use of computers, providing the initial data is available. In the past this data has not always been available, but much work has been carried out in the past few years to remedy this situation. The ability to plan on a comprehensive and integrated basis has also been assisted by the reorganization of the water industry.
Legislation
and Reorganizations
The water industry has never been static. Both water supply and sewage disposal have been subject to constant changes of responsibility. The general tendency has been for more legislation and the formation of larger control units, varying from local and regional water and drainage boards to national organizations. The 1945 Water Act2 required the Minister of Housing and Local Govermnent to promote the conservation and proper use of water resources and the provision of water supplies in England and Wales, and to secure the effective execution by water undertakers, under his control and direction, of a national policy relating to water. The 1948 River Boards Act3 provided for the transfer to river boards of functions relating to land drainage, fisheries, river pollution and navigation. The 1963 Water Resources Act4 created river authorities and gave them the responsibility for taking action to conserve, redistribute or augment water resources in their area. In order to do so they were required to carry out a survey of water resources, and of e&sting demand on these resources by statutory water undertakers and others. They were also required to prepare forecasts of future demand and proposals for action. The Act also created a Water Resources Board which had the duty of advising river authorities and the
67
Minister of Housing and Local Government on matters concerned with water resources. It consolidated many of the peripheral activities covered by previous Acts. It did not give the new boards responsibilities for water supply or sewage disposal. Early in 1971 the Central Advisory Water Committee reported on the future management of water.5 They recommended that water resources could best be planned over England and Wales as a whole, and suggested that this should be achieved by the formulation of a national plan. This plan would provide the strategy within which more detailed planning, and subsequent executive action could proceed. It should take account of water quality as well as quantity. This report was followed by the 1973 Water Act6 which brought about a major reorganization of water services, including the creation of nine regional water authorities in England, and the Welsh National Water Development Authority. Each regional water authority took over the responsibilities of the river authorities, water undertakers and local authorities in relation to sewerage and sewage disposal. Water Companies remained independent in many respects, but were agents of the water authorities in others and many district authorities became agents for local sewers. Generally speaking the regional water authorities became responsible for water resources; water supply; sewerage; sewage disposal; the prevention of pollution; land drainage; flood protection; fisheries and the recreational and amenity use of their water space, including navigation in some cases. The complete hydrological cycle was now the responsibility of one authority for each main river basin, enabling planning to be carried out on a wider basis than just water resources. The 1973 Act also brought about the creation of the National Water Council to act as a forum for the regional water authorities and to assist in inter-regional matters. At the time of writing it is too early to discuss the latest Government proposals for the water industry outlined in their Green Paper.
Organization
for Planning
The ten regional water authorities created on 1st April, 1974 in England and Wales by the 1973 Water Act have adopted individual organizations and approaches to planning. For the purposes of illustration the author deals with the one most familiar to him-Thames Water. The Thames region covers the catchment of the River Thames, an area of 13,100 square kilometres extending from the scarp of the Cotswolds in the west to Gravesend in the east, and from Banbury and Luton in the north to the North Hampshire and Marlborough Downs in the south. Twelve million people live in the region, mainly in the east in London and its surroundings.
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Long Range Planning Vol. 10
lapping and interaction of tasks. An indication organization is given in Figure 6.
The Thames Water Authority consists of the Chairman and 57 members, of whom 36 are nominated by local authorities, 17 are appointed by the Secretary of State for the Environment and 4 are appointed by the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food. The full Authority meets six times a year, mainly to consider recommendations put to it, via the Policy and Resources Committee, by the other Committees shown in Figure 4.
of the
The Strategic Plan Group The main purpose of the Strategic Plan Group is to identify the set of strategies that will meet the long term objectives of the Authority at the lowest financial and social cost and to set these out in a framework-the Strategic Plan, that will aid the establishment of a detailed programme of development and provide the guidelines for decision on individual projects. The Strategic Plan will identify both the state that the organization will aim to achieve in the long run and the most efficient development path for achieving it.
The Chief Executive and Directors implement the Authority’s policies through a management structure which is calculated to combine efficiency with local initiative. Each Director has a small staff, headed by Assistant Directors, covering the areas for which regional control and co-ordination are essential. Each of the nine operating Divisions is headed by a Manager who has intimate knowledge of his own sphere of operations, and is responsible to the Directors for the effective management of his Division. An indication of the organization is given in Figure 5.
Strategic planning is a continuous process and although there are clearly definable steps and a natural order to them, considerable recycling through the steps is normally necessary. The main steps in the process are:
The Director of Planning’s responsibilities to the Authority through the Management Board can be divided into four spheres of planning activity:
(a) to determine
(a) the setting and quantifying
(c) to determine the objectives of the organization in terms of the positions that should be reached on a set of objective scales;
(b) to determine organization;
of objectives;
(b) the translation of objectives into regional and divisional output requirements for water supply, for river quality, for flood prevention standards etc.,
regional,
county
Water
Authority
I
9 Members
23 Members
I
I
Fisheries and Recreation Committee 16 Members
Water Management Committee 19 Members
and Two Sub-
Figure 4. Thames Water committee
Finance Sub Committee
Policy and Resources Committee
1
structure
on
the
An important early task is to describe the current system and to determine the set of scales that will be used to measure the achievement of the Authority’s objectives. In the medium term, the Group aims to develop a modelling capability for evaluating the
Chairman and 57 Members
Quality Advisory Panel
goals; constraints
(f) to monitor the implementation of the plan including the achievement of objectives and to update the plan as required.
The Planning Directorate is composed of a number of groups, some of which, such as Administration and Press and Publicity, are not relevant to the present discussion. The other groups are the responsibility of the Assistant Director Corporate Planning. Each group consists of a handful of staff, and the boundaries between groups are not precisely defined, to allow for over-
1
external
(e) to produce the Strategic Plan as a basis for more detailed planning and implementation, and
and district
Thamea
the
(d) to identify, analyse and evaluate alternative strategies for achieving objectives and to select the preferred alternative;
(c) the task of identifying regional policy alternatives for all the Authority’s functions, but particularly for water resources developments; (d) liaison with national, authorities.
the organizational
Regional Land Drainage Committee 21 Members
Planning for Water Resources
69
-------_---------
r----
1 The Corporate Management Team
i
Chief Executive
I
I
1
I
Operations
The Solicitor
Assistant
The Surveyor Direators Personnel (Staff)
I
i-7-----j
Personnel (Industrial)
--_---
.--_
----
FEZ2 p&q-
1
I
L-----__---__
----------__,J
Figure 5. Thames Water management
structure
implications of alternative development strategies in terms of their effects on the objective scales and on the costs of the organization. Much of the modelling work may be performed outside the Strategic Plan Group, but the Group will need to co-ordinate the models to ensure that they can be suitably linked and provide the appropriate outputs. It is in this Group
particularly
that there is need to
consider the interactions between the different functions of the water cycle. One result of the sewage purification function is to supply water, in a controlled state of impurity, to a river which has amenity functions, but also acts as a carrier of water to an abstraction point from which the water is ultimately supplied for human consumption. It is clear that there can be a balance between the amount of treatment given to sewage before it is discharged to a river and the amount of
rl
Director of Planning
-7 Assistant Director Corporate Plannino
1-I
Manager Economic Studies
These two functions will normally be carried out in liaison with Divisional Managers
Figure 6. Thames Water planning organization
I
Manager Press and Publicity
Manager H.Q. Admin.
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Long Range
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Vol. 10
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1977
treatment given to river water after it has been abstracted. It is perhaps less clear that there is a balance between the amount of recreation catered for at a reservoir and the amount of research carried out into ground water pollution. There is a balance between them, however, even if it is only the amount money available from a limited purse.
of
sewer being laid. This new take flows from an existing replacement.
Table
2. Main
purposes
sewer sewer
can also be used to which is in need of
of schemes
(1) (2)
The Development
Plan Group
The purpose of the Development Plan Group is to bring together proposals for future work from different parts of the Authority, to assess their relative merits in terms of the output of the Strategic Plan Group, and to assemble agreed proposals in an annually produced plan. This plan covers the medium term, of at least 5 years, and includes all development proposals from inception, resulting in major proposals being considered for a future period of much greater than 5 years. The Development Plan is intended to state the commitment of expenditure and other resources towards fulfilling the Authority’s objectives. The main responsibility involves the preparation in conjunction with the Directorate of Finance of the annual Development/Budget Plan and includes the following activities : (a) assembling and Authority work identified needs;
evaluating including
proposals for future solutions to regionally
(b) preparing reports to Government future capital programmes;
departments
on
(c) developing measures of output to evaluate specific schemes and the total plan against objectives, and (d) developing link.
an analytical
capital/revenue
programme
Close liaison is necessary with the Authority’s directorates and operating divisions. Their proposals are considered against competing needs, overall policy and standards of service of the Authority. The Group has to deal with the 14 counties whose administrative areas are partly within the Thames Water boundary concerning their structure plans and with some 100 district and borough councils over general planning matters which will affect the Development Plan. Proposals for capital expenditure greatly exceed the ability or willingness of the Authority to spend money. The annual capital budget is currently of the order of L80 million, but if all aspirations involving capital expenditure were to be met it would be double this figure. At present some 1000 schemes, each estimated to cost over ~150,000, are held on a computer based index. All schemes are classified in terms of function and purpose, and their proportionate contribution to replacement, improvement or growth, amongst many other things. Table 2 gives an indication of the sort of purposes to which schemes can be assigned. In many cases schemes have more than one purpose. For instance, a new housing development may necessitate a new
To maintain or replace the existing system. To provide for growth in demand by the existing consumers. (3) To improve the present levels of service. (4) To serve new housing development. (5) To serve new industrial development. (6) To meet public health requirements. (7) To improve the quality of rivers for potable water supply. (8) To improve the quality of other non-tidal rivers. (9) To improve the quality of estuarial waters and beaches. (10) To improve the quality of coastal waters and beaches. (11) To increase operating efficiency. (12) To provide first time services to existing properties. (13) To improve recreation and amenity facilities.
The Economic
Studies Group
The Group is responsible for organizing economic studies, for carrying out economic analyses and for giving economic advice to other Groups. The Group has a specific responsibility for producing forecasts of the demand for all services provided by the Authority. These forecasts will be used as inputs to the Strategic and Development Plans. The forecasts produced in connection with the Development Plan will specify the output requirements which Divisions are to meet in the medium term. These requirements will be quantified where possible, and will indicate the geographical distribution of expected demands. Development proposals will need to be justified against these demand forecasts and output requirements. The forecasts will have regard to future charging policy. The Group will also advise on methods of appraisal of capital projects. It will be responsible for providing briefing on the general economic when required, situation as it affects the Authority. Because of the current state of the art it is necessary to describe this Group’s activities in terms of future achievements. The functions carried out by water authorities have been performed for a long time, but there is remarkably lit& quantified information available. There are myths and traditional beliefs, but few statistics. At the time of formation of the Regional Water Authorities there was no reliable information on such basic matters as how many baths were taken by people or per household, and how much water was used per bath. It was generally agreed that in times of difficulty one could reduce consumption by banning the use of hosepipes, or preventing the washing of cars. However, no one had any reasonable measure of the effect of such bans, and conversely there was very
Planning for Water Resources little information to indicate the relationship increased water consumption and prolonged spells.
between dry, hot
A great deal of work is now being carried out all over the country to assemble adequate basic information. Some of the work consists of direct measurement, and some consists of censuses and interviewing of representative samples. Until there is a very wide base for new information it might be less accurate than the estimates based on informed opinion and experience which previously existed.
The Central
Information
Group
The main task of the Central Information Group is to develop, manage and maintain a management information system. This can be described as a system whose objective is the provision to managers, who make decisions on the effective allocation of resources, of information concerning the internal activities of the organization and its external environment. The Group is responsible for producing the information content of the Authority’s annual reports and statistical digests. It also handles the statistical returns to outside agencies and Government departments and advises on the means of obtaining access to reference library information and relevant data banks. A lot of work has gone into establishing a personnel data base. The constituent parts of the Authority have kept their own clerical records but these have had to be put together in a common format for storage by computer. Once established, regular updating will be essential to record for instance when staff leave or are promoted.
(e) providing a mathematical modelling other parts of the Directorate.
capability
71 to
The aim of much of the Group’s work is to establish efficient and economic systems within the Authority. In some cases this involves personnel matters and the results of investigations can often be very sensitive. The analytical results may therefore have to be modified to produce an acceptable solution rather than the ideal one. The operational research approach has brought a new dimension to many of the areas of the Authority’s work. Previously many operations were carried out in the way considered best based only upon personal opinion. Analytical investigation often results in better organization and more economic working, both in financial terms and also in terms of other resources such as materials.
The Water
Resources
Group
This Group is an important sub-group of the Operational Research Group. Unlike the main groups it has only been in existence since the middle of 1976. Its main task is to evaluate future options for water resources and to make recommendations to the Authority.
I E X == .
Natural Inflow Effluent Return Flow Gauging Flow Constraint Pump
Banbury
Cotswold
The Operational
Research
Demand
Group
The purpose of the Operational Research Group is to act as a service unit to the Authority in general and to the Directorate of Planning in particular. The aim of the Group is to establish a close involvement with those decision processes concerning the efficient deployment of the Authority’s resources by providing an analytical approach to the appraisal of present and future policy. Whilst in the main this involves ad hoc studies arising either from other Groups within the Directorate or from external Authority sources, it also contains longer term studies of a more fundamental nature initiated by the Group itself. Examples of the work are: (a) specification
of the Authority’s
computing
(c) the instigation of a land-use survey, leading in the longer term to a rationalization of land assets; studies, and
!?I Oolites-
policy;
(b) a specific investigation of sludge disposal practice, leading in the longer term to an appraisal of the overall sludge disposal policy and practices;
(d) transport management
Centre
Newbridge
Figure 7. Section of schematic Water’s resource system
drawing
of Thames
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Long Range Planning Vol. 10
April 1977
The first task for the Group is to build a model of the present water resource system. Figure 7 illustrates a small portion of this model and shows the complexity of even a small part of the system. A computer will be used to simulate this system based on the schematic model. This can be used to evaluate the effect of certain flow conditions on reservoir levels and river flows.
tion further downstream for water supply. This effectively increases the available resources and can significantly reduce the capital expenditure needed to provide for future resource requirements. Figure 8 shows part of a plan of the Thames area with abstraction points downstream of sewage treatment works’ outfalls.
Objectives need to be established for the standard of service we want to maintain, before the model can be used to determine future water resource requirements. Greater security in the water supply system can often only be achieved through enormous capital expenditure with consequent increases in charges. It is not fully known to what extent the public will tolerate increased charges rather than face inconvenience during an occasional drought.
By simulating drought conditions, the model can be used to highlight deficiencies in the existing system. It can also be used to test various optional solutions to the problem. It is not possible to go into great detail about modelling water resource systems in this paper, but the subject is more fully covered elsewhere.7
Another important input to the model to be supplied by the Economic Studies Group is the forecasts of demand and population for each water supply area. This not only affects the water resource requirements, but will also fix the timing of any improvements to be made.
Natural floods and droughts will continue to occur. They can be catastrophic, and in many parts of the world regularly cause immense suffering and loss of life. The public of th’IS country is largely protected against their worst effects. The cost of providing water resources to meet growing demand is out of proportion to the historic cost of satisfying current needs. The additional cost of providing greater security against the consequences of less frequent occurrences is so great that it cannot be taken for granted that it is justified. The use and re-use of the water in our rivers has become so complex that it is no longer reasonable to consider different sequences of the water cycle as if they were independent. Consideration of the relative merits of different proposals and their interaction requires the use of mathematical modelling.
Many other factors need to be taken into account. Improved effluent quality from treatment works can facilitate high proportions being recycled by abstrac-
Conclusions
References
A 0
0
Sewage River
Treatment
Works
Abstraction Points
Flow Gauging
Figure 8. Part of Thames system
(1)
Water Resources in England Board, H MSO, 1974.
(2)
WaterAct
(3)
River Boards Act (1948)
(4)
Water Resources Act (1963)
(5)
The future Management of Water in England and Central Advisory Water Committee, H MSO, 1971.
(6)
WaterAct
(7)
The Hydrological Design of Water-Resource Systems, Jamieson, Radford and Sexton, Water Resources Board, HMSO, 1974.
Stations
Water’s plan of the river
(1945)
(1973)
and
Wales, Water
Resources
HMSO. HMSO. HMSO. Wales,
HMSO.