- Email: [email protected]
Political electricity: What future for nuclear energy?
Conference
reporl/Book
reviews
central theme. David Lindley of Taylor Woodrow Construction argued the case for wind power, suggesting that 5% of the UK’s electricity needs could be met by 2000 and one-third by 2020. The main justification for these ambitious targets appeared to be environmental, a theme which pervaded a number of other papers. However, the environment came across as rather a vague justification for CHP. Ian Fells of Newcastle University and Owen Davies of John Brown Engineers and Constructors asserted, but did not argue convincingly, just how CHP would help the UK meet environmental targets set by the Euro-
pean Community. Without specific regulatory mechanisms, however, industry will not have the incentives to follow through with measures which yield wider environmental benefits. It was left to Peter Rost (Conservative MP), a member of the House of Commons Energy Committee, to lay out practical proposals for opening up markets for CHP. He was interested in exempting CHP from power pool bureaucracy and the fossil fuel levy, taking off transmission charges and taxing waste heat. He also suggested that natural gas might be too valuable to burn in domestic boilers, a modest proposal considering it has long been
Book reviews Bleak future without openness POLITICAL ELECTRICITY: Future for Nuclear Energy? by Terence
What
Price
Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 1990, 419 pp, f19.95 Long-time observers of the UK and international nuclear scene will be familiar with the work of Terence Price from his tenure as the first Secretary-General of the Uranium Institute. This book is the fruit of the period since his retirement in 1987 and is a staunch defence of the record of the civil nuclear power industry. In the first part of the book, he recounts the varying fortunes of nuclear power in a number of countries, contrasting its very poor record in the UK and the USA, with the much smoother history in France and Japan and giving an account of the opposition movements in Sweden, Italy, Germany and Switzerland. In the second part, he examines the record of nuclear power from a number of perspectives from its economics, to the topical concern with global warming. In between, he covers safety issues,
84
the military connection, public opposition and the viability of alternatives to nuclear power. The book is well-written and, particularly in the case studies, contains many historical details that analysts with a less close and lengthy association with the industry would find it hard to match. However, it is hard to see what audience will find this book useful. It is too weighty and technical for a non-specialist audience, whilst there is too little rigorous analysis for a specialist. Price disarmingly describes his account as ‘anecdotal’ and this is the crux of the problem. Nuclear power has been plagued by halftruths and incomplete accounts of problems. What is needed now is a more comprehensive analysis that challenges conventional wisdoms. Price’s book is littered with examples of accounts which seem to make his case but which do less that full justice to the truth. For example, writing about the regulatory regime in the USA, we read: ‘. . many American utilities have been unable to charge a cent until the plant has actually gone on line. And that has had to wait for a final stage of pre-operational licens-
considered too valuable to burn in power stations. Whether or not Peter Rost’s party remains in power after the next election, the measures which he suggested may indeed be the ones required to kick-start CHP. This may test the sincerity of the government about its objective of stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions, so much of which originates in industry and power generation.
Jim Skea Science Policy Research Unit University of Sussex Brighton, UK
ing, with the finished reactor standing idle, sometimes for years, while a further review of the design was undertaken.’ Non-specialist readers will have a vision of large numbers of perfectly sound, complete reactors standing idle while safety and economic regulators capriciously argue about trivia. The reality is that very few reactors have suffered lengthy delays when complete. In the few cases where this has happened, the issues involved have been substantial - can a credible evacuation plan for Long Island be developed? is a reactor sitting on a geological fault safe? Elsewhere, Price writes admiringly of the French nuclear programme: ‘Britain, whose national press regularly proclaims that nuclear power is uneconomic, is Electricite de France’s largest export customer .’ Whilst the content of this statement could be debated, the tone of it illustrates another failing of the book. People in the nuclear industry are invariably portrayed as saintly visionaries, whilst anyone who has criticized the industry is portrayed as either a cynical manipulator of facts, or as an ill-educated intellectual butterfly. As might be expected, France and Japan are held up as steadfast examples which others should follow, whilst the USA and the UK illustrate how not to do it. However, even with these failures, the blame does not, according to him, lie with the nuclear indus-
UTILITIES
POLICY January
1992
Book reviews try but with the politicians. ‘As for the politicians, the book contains many examples that show how the flames of controversy can be deliberately fanned when there are votes to be gained’. This is a rich irony. If ever a technology was conjured up and sustained by political patronage, it was nuclear power. Price claims that the nuclear industry has ‘fewer villains than the public has been led to be-
lieve’. Until the industry stops looking for easy scapegoats and starts to show a greater willingness to recognize its failings than is apparent here, its future will be bleak.
Steve Thomas Science Policy Research Unit University of Sussex Brighton, UK
Policy on Pandora’s box undisclosed THE NEW TECHNOLOGY: A Survival Guide to New Materials, Supercomputers and Global Communications for the 1990s Dimitris Sigma f14.95
N. Chorafas Press,
Cheshire,
UK, 410 pp,
This book seeks to address ‘any responsible person in science and research, in government and regulation, in education, in medicine, in politics, who is concerned with environmental issues or who is involved with social, welfare, ethical or moral progress.’ (Forward). The robust manner and style in which the author tackles this task is a fair reflection of his attempt to minister to such a broad church of potential readers. As a consequence the reader should be prepared for a highly selective roller coaster ride through the history and philosophy of science and technology. The author draws on a range of scientific facts and theories in order to make some generalized remarks about the implications for society of recent scientific discoveries and technological innovations. Working on a broad canvas the author surveys, in quick succession, a number of new fields of scientific endeavour including new physics, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new materials, AI, supercomputers, and photonics. His first purpose is to offer an interpretation of why society is struggling to construct an ethical and philosophical framework with which to view dif-
UTILITIES
POLICY January
1992
ferent technological offerings. He writes ‘Philosophy started 25 centuries ago to reach its current stage. This has given time enough for many original thoughts to be polished, and others to pass the test of time. But philosophic preoccupation with the emerging new sciences has not yet started. (p 83, original italics). As its second objective the book seeks to make the case that the future development of society is dependent on a major commitment to spend on ‘far out’ research goals and big science projects. The classic examples of the consumer products that have been spun out from the USA’s NASA programme are rehearsed, as are the benefits believed to accrue from the EC examples of ESPRIT and EUREKA. For the author, it is ‘The emerging science of complexity that will most likely provide the necessary foundation of knowledge for the next wave of information based technological revolution. Societies that can master the sciences of complexity and convert their knowledge into products will become the new cultural and economic centres of power.’ (p 6, original italics). Given the interdisciplinary nature and size of many research projects, the author suggests that the need to provide solutions requires both focused brain power and significant computing capacity. The high level of funding such a commitment would require is acknowledged but little is said about the nature of the policy environment that would make such a funding regime possible. The author has left
others to grapple with the shortcomings of current institutions and social norms which seem unable to allow research to benefit financially from the commercial exploitation of scientific knowledge for technological innovation.’ The early part of the book seeks to provide examples of the process of integration in such contrasting areas as, cosmology and quantum physics, bio-engineering and materials, genetic engineering and micro-electronics. The case is made repeatedly that the various strands of scientific and technological research are interweaving in a way that will have profound effects on the next generation of discoveries and inventions. For example, the work of R. Forsyth and C. Naylor is mentioned (but not referenced) in order to show the potential contained within the Pandora’s boxes of genetic engineering and knowledge engineering. The author raises the possibility that ‘these two fields contain the seeds of our successors. The question is not whether Intelligence will supersede Life - but how fast?’ (p 22, original italics). Elsewhere he speculates that ‘the race towards more powerful brain capabilities is that of genetic engineering against artificial intelligence’. (p 55) Later on, biotechnology and electronics are given the same treatment as the author begins to conjecture on the potential for computing of bioelectronics and the role of proteins and DNA as the source of circuits of biological density, with an inbuilt molecular clock. Eventually two predominant strands of technological progress come together in the mind of the author. They are the emerging unification of science and technology and the evidence of an emerging technical ability to move toward megaintergration (based on X-ray lithography). Together these lead towards an assessment of the pervasiveness of information technology which is partly attributed to the way in which new materials are being incorporated into further advances in such areas as the formation of a global telecommunication infrastructure. At no point are the institutional and
85
reporl/Book
reviews
central theme. David Lindley of Taylor Woodrow Construction argued the case for wind power, suggesting that 5% of the UK’s electricity needs could be met by 2000 and one-third by 2020. The main justification for these ambitious targets appeared to be environmental, a theme which pervaded a number of other papers. However, the environment came across as rather a vague justification for CHP. Ian Fells of Newcastle University and Owen Davies of John Brown Engineers and Constructors asserted, but did not argue convincingly, just how CHP would help the UK meet environmental targets set by the Euro-
pean Community. Without specific regulatory mechanisms, however, industry will not have the incentives to follow through with measures which yield wider environmental benefits. It was left to Peter Rost (Conservative MP), a member of the House of Commons Energy Committee, to lay out practical proposals for opening up markets for CHP. He was interested in exempting CHP from power pool bureaucracy and the fossil fuel levy, taking off transmission charges and taxing waste heat. He also suggested that natural gas might be too valuable to burn in domestic boilers, a modest proposal considering it has long been
Book reviews Bleak future without openness POLITICAL ELECTRICITY: Future for Nuclear Energy? by Terence
What
Price
Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK, 1990, 419 pp, f19.95 Long-time observers of the UK and international nuclear scene will be familiar with the work of Terence Price from his tenure as the first Secretary-General of the Uranium Institute. This book is the fruit of the period since his retirement in 1987 and is a staunch defence of the record of the civil nuclear power industry. In the first part of the book, he recounts the varying fortunes of nuclear power in a number of countries, contrasting its very poor record in the UK and the USA, with the much smoother history in France and Japan and giving an account of the opposition movements in Sweden, Italy, Germany and Switzerland. In the second part, he examines the record of nuclear power from a number of perspectives from its economics, to the topical concern with global warming. In between, he covers safety issues,
84
the military connection, public opposition and the viability of alternatives to nuclear power. The book is well-written and, particularly in the case studies, contains many historical details that analysts with a less close and lengthy association with the industry would find it hard to match. However, it is hard to see what audience will find this book useful. It is too weighty and technical for a non-specialist audience, whilst there is too little rigorous analysis for a specialist. Price disarmingly describes his account as ‘anecdotal’ and this is the crux of the problem. Nuclear power has been plagued by halftruths and incomplete accounts of problems. What is needed now is a more comprehensive analysis that challenges conventional wisdoms. Price’s book is littered with examples of accounts which seem to make his case but which do less that full justice to the truth. For example, writing about the regulatory regime in the USA, we read: ‘. . many American utilities have been unable to charge a cent until the plant has actually gone on line. And that has had to wait for a final stage of pre-operational licens-
considered too valuable to burn in power stations. Whether or not Peter Rost’s party remains in power after the next election, the measures which he suggested may indeed be the ones required to kick-start CHP. This may test the sincerity of the government about its objective of stabilizing carbon dioxide emissions, so much of which originates in industry and power generation.
Jim Skea Science Policy Research Unit University of Sussex Brighton, UK
ing, with the finished reactor standing idle, sometimes for years, while a further review of the design was undertaken.’ Non-specialist readers will have a vision of large numbers of perfectly sound, complete reactors standing idle while safety and economic regulators capriciously argue about trivia. The reality is that very few reactors have suffered lengthy delays when complete. In the few cases where this has happened, the issues involved have been substantial - can a credible evacuation plan for Long Island be developed? is a reactor sitting on a geological fault safe? Elsewhere, Price writes admiringly of the French nuclear programme: ‘Britain, whose national press regularly proclaims that nuclear power is uneconomic, is Electricite de France’s largest export customer .’ Whilst the content of this statement could be debated, the tone of it illustrates another failing of the book. People in the nuclear industry are invariably portrayed as saintly visionaries, whilst anyone who has criticized the industry is portrayed as either a cynical manipulator of facts, or as an ill-educated intellectual butterfly. As might be expected, France and Japan are held up as steadfast examples which others should follow, whilst the USA and the UK illustrate how not to do it. However, even with these failures, the blame does not, according to him, lie with the nuclear indus-
UTILITIES
POLICY January
1992
Book reviews try but with the politicians. ‘As for the politicians, the book contains many examples that show how the flames of controversy can be deliberately fanned when there are votes to be gained’. This is a rich irony. If ever a technology was conjured up and sustained by political patronage, it was nuclear power. Price claims that the nuclear industry has ‘fewer villains than the public has been led to be-
lieve’. Until the industry stops looking for easy scapegoats and starts to show a greater willingness to recognize its failings than is apparent here, its future will be bleak.
Steve Thomas Science Policy Research Unit University of Sussex Brighton, UK
Policy on Pandora’s box undisclosed THE NEW TECHNOLOGY: A Survival Guide to New Materials, Supercomputers and Global Communications for the 1990s Dimitris Sigma f14.95
N. Chorafas Press,
Cheshire,
UK, 410 pp,
This book seeks to address ‘any responsible person in science and research, in government and regulation, in education, in medicine, in politics, who is concerned with environmental issues or who is involved with social, welfare, ethical or moral progress.’ (Forward). The robust manner and style in which the author tackles this task is a fair reflection of his attempt to minister to such a broad church of potential readers. As a consequence the reader should be prepared for a highly selective roller coaster ride through the history and philosophy of science and technology. The author draws on a range of scientific facts and theories in order to make some generalized remarks about the implications for society of recent scientific discoveries and technological innovations. Working on a broad canvas the author surveys, in quick succession, a number of new fields of scientific endeavour including new physics, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new materials, AI, supercomputers, and photonics. His first purpose is to offer an interpretation of why society is struggling to construct an ethical and philosophical framework with which to view dif-
UTILITIES
POLICY January
1992
ferent technological offerings. He writes ‘Philosophy started 25 centuries ago to reach its current stage. This has given time enough for many original thoughts to be polished, and others to pass the test of time. But philosophic preoccupation with the emerging new sciences has not yet started. (p 83, original italics). As its second objective the book seeks to make the case that the future development of society is dependent on a major commitment to spend on ‘far out’ research goals and big science projects. The classic examples of the consumer products that have been spun out from the USA’s NASA programme are rehearsed, as are the benefits believed to accrue from the EC examples of ESPRIT and EUREKA. For the author, it is ‘The emerging science of complexity that will most likely provide the necessary foundation of knowledge for the next wave of information based technological revolution. Societies that can master the sciences of complexity and convert their knowledge into products will become the new cultural and economic centres of power.’ (p 6, original italics). Given the interdisciplinary nature and size of many research projects, the author suggests that the need to provide solutions requires both focused brain power and significant computing capacity. The high level of funding such a commitment would require is acknowledged but little is said about the nature of the policy environment that would make such a funding regime possible. The author has left
others to grapple with the shortcomings of current institutions and social norms which seem unable to allow research to benefit financially from the commercial exploitation of scientific knowledge for technological innovation.’ The early part of the book seeks to provide examples of the process of integration in such contrasting areas as, cosmology and quantum physics, bio-engineering and materials, genetic engineering and micro-electronics. The case is made repeatedly that the various strands of scientific and technological research are interweaving in a way that will have profound effects on the next generation of discoveries and inventions. For example, the work of R. Forsyth and C. Naylor is mentioned (but not referenced) in order to show the potential contained within the Pandora’s boxes of genetic engineering and knowledge engineering. The author raises the possibility that ‘these two fields contain the seeds of our successors. The question is not whether Intelligence will supersede Life - but how fast?’ (p 22, original italics). Elsewhere he speculates that ‘the race towards more powerful brain capabilities is that of genetic engineering against artificial intelligence’. (p 55) Later on, biotechnology and electronics are given the same treatment as the author begins to conjecture on the potential for computing of bioelectronics and the role of proteins and DNA as the source of circuits of biological density, with an inbuilt molecular clock. Eventually two predominant strands of technological progress come together in the mind of the author. They are the emerging unification of science and technology and the evidence of an emerging technical ability to move toward megaintergration (based on X-ray lithography). Together these lead towards an assessment of the pervasiveness of information technology which is partly attributed to the way in which new materials are being incorporated into further advances in such areas as the formation of a global telecommunication infrastructure. At no point are the institutional and
85