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Portuguese agriculture in transition
312
Book reviews
and China, and it is only in recentyearsthat production in tropical areashas seenany substantial development. Many of the papersin this collection were first presentedat a workshop at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria in 1985. The first section contains six papers on breeding for the tropics, insect problems in Asia and Africa, diseaseproblems, and weed control in the tropics. The second section outlines regional features of production and researchin seven papers from west and central Africa, southern Africa, Egypt, China, India and Latin America. The final section contains three papers on aspectsof processing. The scientist who is already working with soyabeanwill find this a useful publication to get abreast of general tropical developments and problems, but for other purposes it will have its limitations. Within the compass available,most of the paperscannot give much more than an outline of their subjects;for example, what work is happening where,the objectives but not the detail of researchprogrammes, and the occurrenceand brief details of individual pestsand diseases.Again asan example, one might have expected more on the availability of soyabean cultivars for different conditions of photoperiod and temperature in the tropics. However, there are many referencesto sourcesand some 600 are given in a single alphabetical list, so the reader can readily follow up those sections which are of particular interest to him. R. S. Tayler
PortugueseAgriculture in Transition. By Scott R. Pearson et al. Cornell University Press,Ithaca, 1987.283pp. Price: $30.25. This book, by a team of nine social scientistsfrom American and European universities, is the result of a six-year researchproject, funded by the United StatesAgency for International Development, whose object was to assess the present position and future prospects of the agriculture of Portugal immediately preceding her accession to the EEC, and in the transition period, 1986-96,when she must re-align her policies to those of the CAP. The specific aims are to identify the constraints affecting the making of agricultural policy; to measure the profitability and efficiency of farming systems; and to define the technical and structural changes that will be necess,aryif Portuguese agriculture is to remain competitive. The volume is organized in four parts: Constraints, methods and policies; comparative advantagein Portugueseagriculture; agricultural changein the north-west; policies for change.The 14chaptersare unified by the method of analysis.Accounting matrices of revenues,costs and profits (including and
Book reviews
313
excluding policy effects),are constructed for eachagricultural or commodity system for the base year 1983 and, by projection, for 1986-96. Profits are measuredboth in ‘private’ (observed)prices and ‘social’ (efficiency)prices,i.e. world prices and social opportunity costs. Forming the core of the book are sevenchapters analysing profitability and comparative advantage in 33 commodity systems.Thus it is projected that in the Alentejo, the vast rolling plain of mainly dry, poor soils situated betweenthe River Tejo and the Algarve, which produces three quarters of the nation’s wheat, the two main systems-extensive cereal and extensive livestock production-will become unprofitable under expected EEC conditions, involving perhaps the withdrawal of large areas of land from cultivation. In the middle zone-the Ribatejo e Oeste-the combination of more fertile soils, better irrigation and greater intensivenessshould ensure continuing profitability for all main products, especially sunflower, melons, tomatoes and rice, but also wheat and wine. In the Azores, the future of dairying which, since the War, has become the mainstay of the islands’ agriculture, supplying protected mainland markets with dairy products, is more problematical. High levels of profitability will depend on the development of a larger local market for fresh milk and foreign markets for cheese.The outstanding problem region is the north-west, which produces most of the mainland supply of maize and milk and much of its wine but where, in contrast to the Alentejo, the primary constraints are the small average size of farm, dense agricultural population and low marginal productivity of labour. Agricultural policy in the past has led to sharply rising small farm incomes in the region, but without a corresponding increasein efficiency or reduction in unit costs.Chapter 8 usefully contrasts four types of dairy farm (from the small, self-contained, traditional mixed farm worked by animal power to the large, capital-intensive, specialized milk farm); three types of potato farm (traditional, medium and large); two types of main-crop arable farm (growing regional and hybrid maize varieties);and three types of wine producer (traditional ramada and modern corduo vine-growing systemsand farmhouse and co-operative wine-making systems).The majority of small traditional farms will ceaseto be profitable under the CAP. The switch to more modern systemsmust accelerate,but at the cost of a substantial decline in the number of farms and farm workers, which is essentialfor the successof future programmes of capital investment and technical improvement. Chapter 12 projects that 14 out of 36 agricultural systems will be unprofitable by 1996. These include the extensive wheat and livestock systemsin the Alentejo and most of the smaller high cost-low output milk, maize and wine producing systems in the north-west. The most profitable products will be sunflower, tomatoes, potatoes, melon, certain other categoriesof fruit and vegetables,and quality wine. Most other products will
314
Book reviews
be fully profitable only on the larger modernized farms under favourable environmental conditions, e.g. fertile soils and adequate supply of water. Profitability levelswill be determined largely by trends in commodity prices (Chapters 3 and 12)and factor cost (Chapters 4 and 13),but also by changes in the value of the escudo relative to the ECU, the rate at which the government chooses to phase the price changes over the harmonization period, and government policy with regard to direct investment, agricultural credit and land reform. In his summing-up ProfessorPearsonassessesthe three strategiesopen to the government to influence farm output and income: income maintenance, import substitution and efficient specialization. The first would be scarcely feasible under EEC rules where the government has little control over commodity prices and input costs. The second could lead to serious distortions in the allocation of resources if it were decided to expand domestic production of high-cost or unprofitable commodities such as wheat and maize. The preferred strategy is that of efficient specialization, whereinvestment is allocated betweencommodities and systemson the basis of comparative advantage.The fear is that the social costs will outweigh the economic benefits. Just possibly, Pearson may have overstated the constraints on output and productivity growth in the problem regions, especially the north-west. Otherwise, the projections mean ‘a distressingly difficult agenda’for policy makers over a period in which the benefits of the CAP are unlikely to be as valuable as those enjoyed by farmers in other Mediterranean member countries at an earlier period. This is an important book on a so far thinly worked subject. Expertly researched, well-modelled, and containing much original analysis and information, it will appeal at once to agricultural economists and policy makers. For the general reader and,those lacking specialist knowledge of Lusitanian agriculture, it is a little too sparseperhaps.It would have been helpful had there been a substantial supporting framework of background information, summarizing the principal aspects of output, consumption, foreign trade, factors of production, prices and incomes, farm structure, policy and institutions. The model to follow is the 44 page OECD report of 1975,now in urgent need of updating! E. J. T. Collins
Other publications
received but not reviewed
Sociology in Farming Systems Research. By Alistair Sutherland. O.D.I. Agricultural Administration Unit Occasional Paper 6. Price: g4.50.
Book reviews
A Farmer’s Primer on Growing Cowpea on Riceland. I.R.R.I. Philippines. 1987. No price quoted.
315
By R. K. Pandey.
Journal of Production Agriculture. Vol. 1. No. 1. January-March, 1988. American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America and Soil Science Society of America, Madison, Wisconsin. Quarterly. Price: US$33.00. Minimising the Costs of Agricultural Arbitration. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. February 1988. Price: &2.00 plus p. & p. from Surveyors Bookshop Mail Order, Norden House, Basing View, Basingstoke, Hants RG212HN. Integrated Agriculture-Aquaculture in South China: The Dike-pond System of the Zhujiang Delta. By Kenneth Ruddle and Gongfu Zhong. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1988. Price: E27.50 ($49.50). Rivista delle Cooperazione Series 29, October 1987. Publication from Italian Institute for the Study of Cooperation, Rome. No price quoted.
Book reviews
and China, and it is only in recentyearsthat production in tropical areashas seenany substantial development. Many of the papersin this collection were first presentedat a workshop at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Nigeria in 1985. The first section contains six papers on breeding for the tropics, insect problems in Asia and Africa, diseaseproblems, and weed control in the tropics. The second section outlines regional features of production and researchin seven papers from west and central Africa, southern Africa, Egypt, China, India and Latin America. The final section contains three papers on aspectsof processing. The scientist who is already working with soyabeanwill find this a useful publication to get abreast of general tropical developments and problems, but for other purposes it will have its limitations. Within the compass available,most of the paperscannot give much more than an outline of their subjects;for example, what work is happening where,the objectives but not the detail of researchprogrammes, and the occurrenceand brief details of individual pestsand diseases.Again asan example, one might have expected more on the availability of soyabean cultivars for different conditions of photoperiod and temperature in the tropics. However, there are many referencesto sourcesand some 600 are given in a single alphabetical list, so the reader can readily follow up those sections which are of particular interest to him. R. S. Tayler
PortugueseAgriculture in Transition. By Scott R. Pearson et al. Cornell University Press,Ithaca, 1987.283pp. Price: $30.25. This book, by a team of nine social scientistsfrom American and European universities, is the result of a six-year researchproject, funded by the United StatesAgency for International Development, whose object was to assess the present position and future prospects of the agriculture of Portugal immediately preceding her accession to the EEC, and in the transition period, 1986-96,when she must re-align her policies to those of the CAP. The specific aims are to identify the constraints affecting the making of agricultural policy; to measure the profitability and efficiency of farming systems; and to define the technical and structural changes that will be necess,aryif Portuguese agriculture is to remain competitive. The volume is organized in four parts: Constraints, methods and policies; comparative advantagein Portugueseagriculture; agricultural changein the north-west; policies for change.The 14chaptersare unified by the method of analysis.Accounting matrices of revenues,costs and profits (including and
Book reviews
313
excluding policy effects),are constructed for eachagricultural or commodity system for the base year 1983 and, by projection, for 1986-96. Profits are measuredboth in ‘private’ (observed)prices and ‘social’ (efficiency)prices,i.e. world prices and social opportunity costs. Forming the core of the book are sevenchapters analysing profitability and comparative advantage in 33 commodity systems.Thus it is projected that in the Alentejo, the vast rolling plain of mainly dry, poor soils situated betweenthe River Tejo and the Algarve, which produces three quarters of the nation’s wheat, the two main systems-extensive cereal and extensive livestock production-will become unprofitable under expected EEC conditions, involving perhaps the withdrawal of large areas of land from cultivation. In the middle zone-the Ribatejo e Oeste-the combination of more fertile soils, better irrigation and greater intensivenessshould ensure continuing profitability for all main products, especially sunflower, melons, tomatoes and rice, but also wheat and wine. In the Azores, the future of dairying which, since the War, has become the mainstay of the islands’ agriculture, supplying protected mainland markets with dairy products, is more problematical. High levels of profitability will depend on the development of a larger local market for fresh milk and foreign markets for cheese.The outstanding problem region is the north-west, which produces most of the mainland supply of maize and milk and much of its wine but where, in contrast to the Alentejo, the primary constraints are the small average size of farm, dense agricultural population and low marginal productivity of labour. Agricultural policy in the past has led to sharply rising small farm incomes in the region, but without a corresponding increasein efficiency or reduction in unit costs.Chapter 8 usefully contrasts four types of dairy farm (from the small, self-contained, traditional mixed farm worked by animal power to the large, capital-intensive, specialized milk farm); three types of potato farm (traditional, medium and large); two types of main-crop arable farm (growing regional and hybrid maize varieties);and three types of wine producer (traditional ramada and modern corduo vine-growing systemsand farmhouse and co-operative wine-making systems).The majority of small traditional farms will ceaseto be profitable under the CAP. The switch to more modern systemsmust accelerate,but at the cost of a substantial decline in the number of farms and farm workers, which is essentialfor the successof future programmes of capital investment and technical improvement. Chapter 12 projects that 14 out of 36 agricultural systems will be unprofitable by 1996. These include the extensive wheat and livestock systemsin the Alentejo and most of the smaller high cost-low output milk, maize and wine producing systems in the north-west. The most profitable products will be sunflower, tomatoes, potatoes, melon, certain other categoriesof fruit and vegetables,and quality wine. Most other products will
314
Book reviews
be fully profitable only on the larger modernized farms under favourable environmental conditions, e.g. fertile soils and adequate supply of water. Profitability levelswill be determined largely by trends in commodity prices (Chapters 3 and 12)and factor cost (Chapters 4 and 13),but also by changes in the value of the escudo relative to the ECU, the rate at which the government chooses to phase the price changes over the harmonization period, and government policy with regard to direct investment, agricultural credit and land reform. In his summing-up ProfessorPearsonassessesthe three strategiesopen to the government to influence farm output and income: income maintenance, import substitution and efficient specialization. The first would be scarcely feasible under EEC rules where the government has little control over commodity prices and input costs. The second could lead to serious distortions in the allocation of resources if it were decided to expand domestic production of high-cost or unprofitable commodities such as wheat and maize. The preferred strategy is that of efficient specialization, whereinvestment is allocated betweencommodities and systemson the basis of comparative advantage.The fear is that the social costs will outweigh the economic benefits. Just possibly, Pearson may have overstated the constraints on output and productivity growth in the problem regions, especially the north-west. Otherwise, the projections mean ‘a distressingly difficult agenda’for policy makers over a period in which the benefits of the CAP are unlikely to be as valuable as those enjoyed by farmers in other Mediterranean member countries at an earlier period. This is an important book on a so far thinly worked subject. Expertly researched, well-modelled, and containing much original analysis and information, it will appeal at once to agricultural economists and policy makers. For the general reader and,those lacking specialist knowledge of Lusitanian agriculture, it is a little too sparseperhaps.It would have been helpful had there been a substantial supporting framework of background information, summarizing the principal aspects of output, consumption, foreign trade, factors of production, prices and incomes, farm structure, policy and institutions. The model to follow is the 44 page OECD report of 1975,now in urgent need of updating! E. J. T. Collins
Other publications
received but not reviewed
Sociology in Farming Systems Research. By Alistair Sutherland. O.D.I. Agricultural Administration Unit Occasional Paper 6. Price: g4.50.
Book reviews
A Farmer’s Primer on Growing Cowpea on Riceland. I.R.R.I. Philippines. 1987. No price quoted.
315
By R. K. Pandey.
Journal of Production Agriculture. Vol. 1. No. 1. January-March, 1988. American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America and Soil Science Society of America, Madison, Wisconsin. Quarterly. Price: US$33.00. Minimising the Costs of Agricultural Arbitration. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. February 1988. Price: &2.00 plus p. & p. from Surveyors Bookshop Mail Order, Norden House, Basing View, Basingstoke, Hants RG212HN. Integrated Agriculture-Aquaculture in South China: The Dike-pond System of the Zhujiang Delta. By Kenneth Ruddle and Gongfu Zhong. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1988. Price: E27.50 ($49.50). Rivista delle Cooperazione Series 29, October 1987. Publication from Italian Institute for the Study of Cooperation, Rome. No price quoted.