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Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the River Indus delta?
Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science xxx (2016) 1e11
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Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta? Samina Kidwai a, *, Paul Fanning b, Waqar Ahmed a, Mohsin Tabrez a, Jing Zhang c, Muhammad Wasim Khan d a
National Institute of Oceanography, ST 47 Block 1 Clifton, Karachi-75600, Pakistan Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations, Marine Fisheries Department, West Wharf, Karachi, Pakistan State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (SKLEC), East China Normal University, 3663 Zhongshan Road North, Shanghai 200062, China d Marine Fisheries Department, West Wharf, Karachi, Pakistan b c
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 28 February 2016 Received in revised form 14 September 2016 Accepted 23 September 2016 Available online xxx
The River Indus delta is the most prominent feature on the Pakistan coast. Owing to its prominence, mangrove ecosystem, historical, ecological and economic significance it is also a proposed Marine Protected Area (MPA). Currently there are no designated MPAs in Pakistan. This paper presents findings of the Fishery Resource Appraisal Project of Pakistan (FRAPP) a fishery stock assessment carried out for the pelagic and demersal fishery resource of Pakistan from 2009 to 2015 and the Creek Survey Program (CSP) which was part of FRAPP. And discusses how the delta suffers from physical stress. The observations from FRAPP indicates deterioration in the mangrove ecosystem, that are evident in the form of loss of biodiversity and biological productivity. The 600 observations from 10 major creeks showed that trawl catches were a mix of generally small size fish and shrimp. Catches averaged less than 1 kg per tow in all the creeks sampled. Catch weights were somewhat higher in Isaro, WadiKhuddi, Paitiani, Dabbo, Richaal Creeks all of which were near mangrove areas and open sea. The most frequently occurring species of shrimps caught in the trawls belonged to 7 major taxa. The Khobar Creek and Upper Wari Creek are notable for the high rates of occurrence of every group except the Caridea. They are also the only two creeks where the freshwater family Paleomonidae is common. The size composition of the important penaeid family of shrimps in all study areas combined suggests that the smallest shrimps (0.5 e1.5 cm carapace length CL) enter the creeks in February/March and adults (5e6 cm CL) move out again 6e12 months later. Four species of Penaeus (monodon, japonicus, semisulcatus, merguiensis), two species of Metapenaeus (monoceros, affinis), Parapeneoposis stylifera and Solenosera sp. were caught, all in low abundance, less than 0.5 Kg tow1. The shrimp catches in the area off the Sindh coast, the catches averaged 4.30 ± 13.40 kg h1 on the inner shelf (20e50 m) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 on the outer shelf (51e200 m). Further east, on the Kori bank, the shrimp catch averaged 4.40 ± 6.6 kg h1 (inner shelf) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 (outer shelf). Penaeus spp. were more abundant in the inshore and Metapenaeus spp. on the outer shelf. The creeks that have a direct connection to the sea and support a natural mangrove stand are significantly more productive than the smaller creeks. Scientific and management questions have arisen that are addressed in order to help revive the delta and hope that this results in a spillover effect that will spread on to the shelf areas. Fisher communities depend heavily on the delta and coastal waters and its natural resources for their livelihood. Their participation and ownership on the resource is over generations, and therefore their involvement is key to proposing any management and conservation initiatives. The study proposes how the delta and its ecosystem in parts should be protected and why and how it is a prime candidate for being declared nationally as protected. This paper proposes a way forward. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: River Indus delta Marine protected area Ecosystem Human society Climate change
* Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Kidwai). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016 0272-7714/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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1. Introduction The River Indus delta is the most prominent feature on the coast of Pakistan. It is also under consideration as one of several potential Marine Protected Areas (MPA) in Pakistan (Fig. 1, left panel) (Worldbank, 1999 (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/ marine-protected-areas-number-wb-data.html); Siddiqui et al., 2008). The Indus delta is a large wave dominated delta, with a complex network of major and minor creeks (Fig. 1, right panel) that support a mangrove ecosystem. The Indus delta that was once nourished by 17 freshwater channels is now restricted to a single channel, the mouth of the Khobar creek (Jhang river), that opens into the Arabian Sea (Syvitski and Brakenridge, 2013). There are now an average of 138 days per year when there is zero discharge to the delta downstream of the Kotri Barrage (Renaud et al., 2013). The Sindh shelf area historically accounted for 70% of commercial fisheries landings. More recently, fisheries statistics show that fraction has declined to less than 60% to the marine commercial fishery of Pakistan (Fig. 2a) and the present study shows that the decline is much more. The dependence of coastal communities on fishing has increased, with a corresponding rise in the number of fishing boats operating on the shelf off the delta (Fig. 2b). The annual catch per boat have declined with increasing effort since the 1980s (Fig. 2c). The Indus river and its delta cradled an ancient civilization. The resources of the coastal and marine waters of the Indus River system have sustained civilizations since the 1st century BC (Roberts, 1894). It continues to be an area of economic significance today and meets both natural and cultural criteria for protection as an MPA (Day et al., 2012). The extension in the deadline for establishment of 10% protected area expects that lagging nations can expand their MPA systems (Wood et al., 2012). This is expected to spill over beyond the MPA boundary (Lester et al., 2009) that will contribute towards poverty reduction and support sustainable development as a result. Based on the ecosystem role of mangroves elsewhere, and traditional
beliefs within the coastal communities in Pakistan, the Indus delta mangrove ecosystem would play a valuable role in the life cycles of at least some important marine fishery stocks that is expected to sustain the coastal fisher communities that have depended on this resource for many generations. The Fishery Resource Appraisal in Pakistan Project (FRAPP) which ran from 2009 to 2015, included a Creek Survey Programme (CSP) in 2013e14. The CSP was complementary to four offshore surveys also conducted under the FRAPP. In 2009, a demersal survey was conducted on the shelf off the Sindh coast. In 2010 two surveys were conducted. A broader and more detailed demersal survey covered the fish and invertebrate stocks of the entire shelf area. The second 2010 survey was an acoustic/pelagic trawl survey of the entire Exclusive Economic Zone and shelf area. The final FRAPP survey in 2015 again surveyed the demersal stocks of the shelf area only (Cruise reports, Fanning et al., 2009, 2011, 2015). Prior to the FRAPP surveys, the last such work in Pakistan was carried out in 1980s (Abildgaard et al., 1986). Since then there was minimal data collection and no new assessments of stock status. Although total catch volumes have remained relatively high there have been significant declines in annual catch per boat over the years based on commercial fishery landings statistics (Anon, 2012; Fig. 2a,c). Both the FRAPP surveys and commercial statistics indicate significant changes in fishery productivity with increased contributions of low-valued catch for fish meal production and large declines in high-valued export species. Shrimp were once the main commercial fishery on the shelf off the Indus, primarily from the trawl fishery. There has been a decline in both the diversity and total production of shrimp reported (Marine Fisheries Department, unpublished data 2015, Kamal, 2004) and also from the recent stock assessment (Fanning et al., 2011, 2015; CSP findings-personal communications). These changes are taken as signs of stress on the stocks and the supporting ecosystem. While the main stressors are ultimately climate driven, resulting from Pakistan's arid climate, the water extractions and controls on the Indus River for human use are the direct
Fig. 1. Coast of Pakistan. Left Panel: The Indus delta is circled. The 100 m depth contour is the approximate limit of the continental shelf fishing grounds which are narrow in the west but much wider off the Indus delta. Right panel: The Indus delta, showing the creeks that were studied during the Fishery Resource Appraisal Program Pakistan (FRAPP), Creek Survey Program (CSP), the sampling stations are shown as red dots. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
Fig. 2. a. The total commercial landing and the proportion of the landings from the Sindh coast in metric tonnes (MT). b. The increase in the number of fishing vessels operating in the Sindh coast. c. The annual catch per vessel as a lowest common denominator for Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE), marine fisheries landings (bars, in MT) in Sindh and corresponding catch per unit effort (line, in kg1vessel1yr1) for Sindh based vessels.
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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stresses. In flood years there is some availability of freshwater in the river going to the sea but in dry years there is little or no water reaching the downstream reaches (Renaud et al., 2013). Lack of freshwater inputs from the river is rapidly transforming the deltaic area as sea water moves upstream. Loss of mangrove stands from freshwater starvation during dry years leads to the reduction of the holding capacity of the coastal banks as sediment nourishment and retention declines, and results in coastal erosion visible in many locations throughout the delta. This study presents the overall fishery production, with a focus on shrimp, observed during the FRAPP through the surveys of the shelf area off the Indus delta and the within the creeks during the CSP. The salinity observations in the Khobar creek in the flood (2013) and dry (2014) years demonstrate impact of the freshwater releases from the barrages in the river Indus on the downstream environment of the river system. The objective is to assess and demonstrate risks due to continued unmanaged exploitation of the Indus water, fisheries resources, and environment. The dependence of the local communities on these natural resources is high and therefore it is not practical to stop all activities within the delta and its creeks. However, there is an urgent need to conserve and protect at least some parts of the delta, perhaps through declaration of parts of it as one or more MPAs, with the hope that spillover effects may extend to the fishery of the shelf. MPAs are a suitable management tool to slow down, stop, and even reverse declines in biodiversity and fisheries (Agardy, 1994; Pauly et al., 2002; Roberts et al., 2005) while continuing to sustain communities and fisheries. This is an option that is worth exploring for the Indus delta and its creek ecosystem. This paper demonstrates the decline in the overall biodiversity and fishery productivity in the creeks and offshore, shrimp catch declines in particular, and proposes that MPAs should be established in order to halt further deterioration and make the first steps towards revival of healthy and productive Indus delta ecosystems. The study presents the current ecological conditions that prevail in the study area and help provide justification to declare the creeks of the River Indus delta as MPA. 2. Material and methods 2.1. Survey operations Surveys were conducted on the continental shelf, (offshore surveys), and in the Indus delta creeks (creeks surveys). Three offshore demersal trawl surveys were conducted on the continental shelf adjoining the Indus delta during 2009, 2010, 2015 (Cruise reports, Fanning et al., 2009, 2011, 2015). During the Creek Survey Program (CSP) in 2013/14, ten creeks were sampled on approximately a monthly basis.
creeks (indicated by *) were too exposed to the sea for safe sampling operations in the small vessel used. 2.2.2. Sampling observations During the CSP, temperature and salinity observations were recorded with a YSI CASTAWAY CTD (http://www.sontek.com/ productsdetail.php?CastAway-CTD-11) once each sampling station day in a study area. Fish and invertebrate samples were collected with two different trawls, both from Innovative Net Systems (http://www.fishtrawls.com). A 250 Mamou surface trawl includes a floating headline and trawl doors to achieve a wide swath of the surface and sub-surface species. The net depth is adjustable to a maximum of 5 m deep, it was used in the full depth configuration throughout the CSP. A 160 SKT Model 38 bottom trawl is intended for sampling fish and invertebrates on or near (2 m) the bottom. It uses weighted trawl doors and is suitable for muddy or sandy bottoms. Both trawls were hand-operated using 30 m tow lines. The two nets were fished on each sampling site each month and the combination is expected to adequately sample the fish and invertebrate groups found in the creeks. The trawl catches were preserved in ice, on board the vessel and detailed sampling for species identification (Bianchi, 1985), size composition and weight/length data was completed in the laboratory at the Marine Fisheries Department. Two field teams operated from a small vessel (13 m) to conduct sampling in each creek study area once a month from April 2013 to May 2014. Operational difficulties restricted activities early in the programme and weather conditions were a major factor at times, especially in the sea-exposed study areas. Table 1 provides an overview of the number of times each creek was sampled. Although the study programme called for 12 monthly samples in each of 13 study areas, in the end there were 10 creek study areas each of which was sampled at least 10 times during the year. Findings from these 10 creeks are discussed below. 2.3. Offshore surveys The FRAPP offshore surveys were conducted in November 2009, OctobereNovember 2010 and February 2015. Randomly selected stations were from a depth and area stratified grid and bottom trawl tows were made at each site (Table 2). Each standard tow was 30 min at a towing speed of 3.5 knots. Catches were sorted identified and sampled on board the research vessel, including length frequencies and length/weight data. The detailed methodology of the fishing trawls is given in cruise reports of surveys of November 2009, November 2010, February 2015. Environmental conditions were sampled using Niskin bottles (2009), SeaBird SBE19 CTD sonde and rosette sampler (2010) and YSI 6600 multiparameter sonde (2015) (Cruise reports, Fanning et al., 2009, 2011, 2015).
2.2. Creeks survey programme 3. Results 2.2.1. Sampling site The River Indus delta comprises of a network of 17 major and many minor creeks (Figs. 1b and 3a). The creeks were selected to represent three different cases, those with a) direct connection to the sea, b) connection to the river and sea, and c) smaller creeks. The main freshwater flow is in the Khobar Creek (Jhang river) flowing downstream through the Khobar creek before it enters the Arabian Sea (Fig. 3a). The CSP was carried out for one year, from April 2013 to May 2014. Ten creeks were successfully surveyed approximately every month in order to obtain the abundance, diversity and productivity data over an annual cycle (west to east, Isaro, WadiKhuddi, Paitiani, Mal, Dabbo, Richhal, Chann, Chani, Hajamro, Kahr*, Kajhar*, Khobar (Jhang river), Upper Wari). Two
3.1. Environmental conditions in the Indus estuary and the adjoining coastal waters During the CSP, the conditions in the Khobar Creek (Jangh river, Indus main channel into the Arabian Sea) were affected by high runoff levels in 2013 followed by very low water flows in 2014. In August 2013, the salinity was less than 1 PSU (practical salinity unit, a unit less quantity, where <0.23 PSU is freshwater and marine water is 32 PSU). The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that 2013 was a flood year and the precipitation rate in August 2013 (southwest monsoons) was the highest of the year (MET Department, Pakistan, http://www.pmd.gov.pk 2013). The CSP survey
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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Fig. 3. a. Creek survey programme study areas during FRAPP surveys 2013e14. b. Offshore survey stratification used in all FRAPP surveys 2009e2015. Inshore strata are 10e50 m depth range and offshore are 50e200 m. (mak ¼ Makran, son ¼ Sonmiani, sind ¼ Sindh, in ¼ inshore, off ¼ offshore).
detected the presence of freshwater in the Jangh river all the way until it entered the sea. By November 2013 the salinity increased slightly, ranging up to 10-PSU at the river mouth (Fig. 4a). In 2014, there was less precipitation, freshwater flow in the river was reduced, and the sea moved upstream. From May 2014 onwards the
salinity ranged between 25 and 32 PSU at the river mouth and elevated salinities were observed almost 30 km upstream, indicative of upstream seawater intrusion (Fig. 4b). The most complete environmental data for the offshore area was from the 2010 demersal survey, carried out post-flooding in
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Table 1 Numbers of monthly samples (surface and bottom trawls) collected from Creek Survey Programme study areas.
2013 May/Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Isaro
Wadi Khuddi
Paitiani
Mal
Dabbo
Richhal
5 1 7 4 5 5 6
1 1 2 5 3 2 5
3 2 6 6 3 2 4
6 4 5 7 6
4 7 8 5 8
61
51
1 3 6 6 3 3 5
4 4 1 3 4
2 1 7 3 4 6 6
1 3 3 1 1
4 4 4 4 4
5 5 3 6 4
2 2 2 2 2
6 8 10 10 10
6 6 5 6 6
3 2 8 7 8
7 8 8 7 6
2 6 7 5 6
5 6 5 6 5
6 6 7 6 7
70
56
44
65
35
49
55
Table 2 Bottom trawl samples collected during offshore surveys by the FRAP project. Samples included in the present study indicated by highlighted rows of table. Stratum Makran inshore Makran offshore Sonmiani inshore Sonmiani offshore Sindh inshore Sindh offshore
2009
2010
2015
8 8 11 24
20 7 4 8 14 20
24 6 5 4 14 32
10 5
7 4
Kori inshore Kori offshore
OctobereNovember 2010. The significant floods of 2010 resulted in the surface layers (<50 m) showing reduced salinity from a nearshore freshwater plume in the upper right corner of Fig. 5 and off the shelf in the central section. 3.2. Fish and shrimp catches in the creeks In the creeks the trawl catches were a mix of generally small size fish and shrimp (Fig. 6). Catches averaged less than 1 kg per tow in all the creeks sampled (Table 3). Catch weights were somewhat higher in Isaro, WadiKhuddi, Paitiani, Dabbo, Richaal Creeks all of which were near mangrove areas. The highest volumes observed were dominated by jellyfish. 3.3. Shrimp catch in the creeks and coastal waters The most frequently occurring species of shrimps caught in the trawls belonged to 7 major taxa (Table 4). The spatial distribution of the major shrimp taxa amongst the study areas is compared based on occurrences and catch rates. Because the sample sizes vary between areas, the rate of occurrence (Number of samples including the taxon/Number of samples from the study area) is used to assess the relative suitability of each study area habitat. An arbitrary threshold of 25% is used in Table 4 to highlight distributions. The Khobar Creek and Upper Wari Creek are notable for the high rates of occurrence of every group except the Caridea. Even Parapenaeus longipes, which is not abundant enough to reach the 25% threshold in any creek, has relatively high rate of occurrence in those two creeks. They are also the only two creeks where the freshwater family Paleomonidae is common. These two creek systems were also the ones with the highest degree of fresh water over the course of the survey programme, suggesting that freshwater inputs are important facets of shrimp species habitat in the creeks.
Chhan
Chani
Hajamro
Jangh river
Upper Wari
Total
4 1 10 6 9 4
18 8 45 52 37 43 45
2 4 7 9 8
6 5 9 10 10
53 62 79 78 80
40
74
600
2
The size composition of the important penaeid family of shrimps in all study areas combined suggests that the smallest shrimps (0.5e1.5 cm carapace length CL) enter the creeks in February/March and adults (5e6 cm CL) move out again 6e12 months later (Fig. 7). Unfortunately, the small samples sizes do not allow for length frequency analysis of each species. In November 2009 a demersal swept area survey covered the Sindh and Sonmiani shelf areas using the FRV Ferdows-1 (Fanning et al., 2009). The vessel was equipped with a commercial fish trawl with limited suitability for shrimp. Four species of Penaeus (monodon, japonicus, semisulcatus, merguiensis), two species of Metapenaeus (monoceros, affinis), Parapeneoposis stylifera and Solenosera sp. were caught, all in low abundance, less than 0.5 Kg tow1. Another survey, in OctobereNovember 2010, used a survey trawl (Super Gisund) specifically modified for better retention of small specimens. The shrimp catches in that survey were much higher. In the area off the Sindh coast, the catches averaged 4.30 ± 13.40 kg h1 on the inner shelf (20e50 m) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 on the outer shelf (51e200 m). Further east, on the Kori bank, the shrimp catch averaged 4.40 ± 6.6 kg h1 (inner shelf) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 (outer shelf). Penaeus spp. were more abundant in the inshore and Metapenaeus spp. on the outer shelf (Fanning et al., 2011). In February 2015, a third demersal trawl survey was completed using the FRV Ferdows-1 but equipped with the Super Gisund survey trawl. In spite of the trawl change the shrimp catches were much lower than in 2010. Metapeneopsis stridulans, Metapeneaus monoceros, Penaeus sp., Parapeneus longipes were reported in low catch, by stratum standardized mean catch per tow (Kg tow1) 0.111e0.357 (off Sindh) 0.061e0.089 (Kori creek) and low numbers, standardized mean catch per tow (Number tow1) was 1.127, 7.172 (Sindh) and 0, 3.15 (Kori creek). There is a general decline in the demersal fish stock from the 2010 survey (MFD, 2016 unpublished data, Fanning et al., 2015). 4. Discussion It is clear that the Indus delta creeks ecosystem is experiencing a combination of human induced stressors. Water extractions and diversions, mangrove cutting, and excessive fishing with destructive gears are all direct human impacts. The use of illegal fishing gear and practices, over exploitation, and violations of the fishing closures are all indicative of the weakness of fisheries and coastal zone management, both in application and in approach. Ecosystem stress shows in the loss of biodiversity and reduced fisheries productivity.
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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Fig. 4. a. Mean monthly salinity (PSU) at Khobar Creek mouth at the entry to the sea. b. Salinity (colour bar -PSU) distribution in Khobar Creek in August 2014 (ebb tide observations). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
The ecosystem of the Indus delta estuary is dynamic, climatically driven and dependent on the historical river inflows. Human interventions on the river and exploitation of the delta's resources put pressures on the ecosystem's sustainability. From a large mangrove ecosystem with eight species of mangrove based on surveys in 1960e61 (Saifullah, 1982) and again in 1983e84. It has reduced in extent and only three species remain (Avicennia marina, Ceriops tagal and Aegiceras corniculata) (Qureshi, 1996). Avicennia marina accounts for 97% of the natural mangroves in the delta (Meadows and Meadows, 1999; Ashraf et al., 2002), mainly because it can tolerate high salinity levels (Ahmed, 1992. Our observations from December 2015 are that natural mangrove stands are restricted to the Isaro, Wadi Khuddi, Patiani, and Dabbo creeks, all dominated by A marina. Other species, Rhizophora marcronata, Aegiceros corniculata, and Ceriops tagal, are only scantily present. In other creeks most of the adjoining land area is denuded of vegetation, drastically undermining the stability of the creek system. Coastal vegetation such as mangrove and sea grasses help maintain healthy ecosystems. They help stabilize shorelines, act as buffers to the mainland, sequester carbon, and serve as refuges for critical life stages of marine and estuarine species (Bouillon et al., 2008; Reef et al., 2010). Healthy ecosystems with complete and welldeveloped food web ensure ecological sustainability and support coastal communities by replenishing fishery stocks in the creeks and in the sea and provide a basis for long-term food security
(Worm et al., 2006; Brander, 2010). It is well established that the fishery productivity on the shelf areas off Sindh is closely associated with the mangrove ecosystem (Ali Khan 1976, Anon, 1976e77, 1986, Ahmed, 1988; Banse, 1984; Ahmed et al., 1999; Ahmed and Abbas, 1999; Ayub and Ahmed, 2000). The commercially important groups, both from the shallow waters and deeper waters, use the mangrove creeks as nurseries, spawning habitats or feeding grounds, the productivity of the creeks gets distributed throughout the fishery resources on the shelf (Kidwai and Amjad, 2001; Kidwai, 2005) as a spillover from the mangrove ecosystem and the creeks. The penaeid shrimp have a complex reproductive strategy which is influenced by environmental conditions. Shrimp in Pakistani waters spawn all the year round although there is a peak season in SeptembereOctober for the primary commercial species (Sultana, 2000. PhD Dissertation, Ayub, 1998. PhD Dissertation). Most of these species spawn in the open sea and the post-larvae stages move inshore into the protected and nutrient rich areas in the creeks. During the Southwest monsoons, the water circulation is landwards and the currents brings the shrimp into the creeks to spend vulnerable juvenile stages in and around the mangrove ecosystem. June and July, part of the summer monsoon period, is designated as a closed season for shrimp trawling in Pakistan although most years the closure is incomplete or shortened. Shrimp fisheries were the most valuable commercial fisheries in Pakistan. Of thirty penaeid species reported from Pakistan, twelve
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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Fig. 5. Salinity (PSU) in the offshore post-flood year OctobereNovember 2010. Reduced salinity in the river plume is visible in the on-shelf surface waters between 0 and 30 km along the section. Inset figure shows the section stations included.
Fig. 6. A typical trawl catch in the creek survey characterized by small amount of smaller sized fish/shrimp and the presence of jellyfish.
are exploited commercially (Kazmi, 2003). The commercial landing statistics have shown a decline in shrimp catch on the Sindh coast over the years despite increases in vessel numbers and fishing effort. In 1986 an assessment of the shrimp stocks had concluded that shrimp were already being exploited at or above the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) (Abildgaard et al., 1986) and recommended limiting the trawler fleet to 600 boats. Since then the trawler fleet has grown by 300% however during this interval no new stock assessments were made. Catches averaged almost 29,000 t per year in the mid-1980s however the fishery continued to expand and catch rates declined. Since 2008 the shrimp fishery has averaged less than 18,500 t per year despite many more boats and greater fishing effort (2016; personal communications). Our findings from the CSP show low catches in the creeks, both in volume and in diversity. Over 150 species have been reported from the creeks (Ahmed, 1988), but the catches during the CSP included less than 70 species, mostly small sized fish of low commercial significance and not juveniles of high commercial value species. Since the 19th century, the Indus delta and its ecosystem has
Table 3 Mean trawl catch per tow (kg) per month from Creek Surveys, all species combined, excluding jelly fish.
2013 May/Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Isaro
Wadi Khuddi
Paitiani
Mal
Dabbo
Richhal
Chhan
Chani
0.663 0.259 0.229 0.232 0.779 0.256 0.543
0.270 0.402 0.005 1.423 0.323 0.018 0.434
0.301 0.405 0.790 0.132 0.241 0.194 0.619
0.421 0.019 0.442 0.140 0.251 0.353
0.081 0.140 0.345 0.412 0.154 0.334
0.030 0.093 0.233 0.509 0.449 0.333
Hajamro
Jangh river
1.957 0.522 0.044 1.182 0.041 0.006 0.158
0.749
0.250
0.065 0.238 0.012 0.294 0.108
6.094 0.237 0.148 0.801 0.073 0.075 0.556
0.634 0.005 0.179 0.079 0.004
0.536 0.552 0.133 0.625 0.086
0.349 0.158 0.170 2.480 0.370
0.066 0.567 0.712 0.622 0.537
0.014 0.228 0.083 0.122 0.197 0.380
0.058 0.019 0.381 0.258 0.109 0.154
0.166 0.118 0.469 0.149 0.415 0.775
0.030 0.216 0.084 1.058 0.275 0.301
0.066 0.234 0.073 0.035 0.362 0.268
0.138 0.171 0.404 0.079 0.154 0.447
0.689 1.444 0.260 0.236 0.161 0.529
Upper Wari
Total
0.580 0.172 0.687 0.307 0.581 0.108
1.358 0.365 0.276 0.543 0.270 0.476 0.320
0.250 0.394 0.536 0.124 0.346 0.371
0.177 0.279 0.301 0.284 0.261 0.409
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
9
39
52.7%
28
70.0%
11
2
2.8%
1 3
4.6% 2.3%
1
3.2%
2.0%
2
% occur.
Paleomonidae
Occurrence
1
0.0%
3.6%
2
22.4%
3.6%
92
154 3
4.1%
1
2.5%
17
16
16.7%
6 22
33.8% 6.8%
3 28
50.0% 38.6%
27
32.3%
21.6%
20
% occur.
Caridea
Occurrence
11
34.7%
29.1%
107 32.4% 52.5% 5.5% 22.4% 2.8% 21.4% 11.4% 27.5% 9.7% % occur.
Parapenaeopsis sp.
7 11.3% 6 Parapenaeus longipes
Occurrence % occur. Occurrence
11 21.6% 14
7 10.0% 8
5 8.9% 12
4 9.1%
0.0%
6.2%
12 16.2% 24 4 10.0% 21 6 9.2% 4
3 8.3% 1
2 4.1% 11
1 1.8% 3
62
145 22
29.7%
17
42.5%
5
9.1%
10
20.4% 13.9%
5 14
21.5% 18.2%
8 10
17.9% 28.6%
20
30.6%
27.5%
19
% occur.
Peneaus indicus
Occurrence
14
40
54.1% 37.5% 9.1% 17.7% % occur.
29.4%
25.7%
25.0%
27.3%
24.6%
8.3%
28.6%
15 5
22.4%
14 3
13.9% 10.8%
16 12
11.4% 10.7%
14 18
12.9% 33.3% 25.8%
11 Occurrence Metapenaeus sp.
% occur.
15
60.8% 57.5% 5.5%
166
148
606 74
45
40
23
55
3
49
11 5
36 65
7 5
44 56
6 9
70 51
17
62
16 Occurrence Sergestes sp.
Jangh river
Upper Wari creek
9141
Chani creek
Hajamro creek
9136
Chhan creek Richhal creek
9135 9134
Dabbo creek Mal creek
9133
Waddi Khuddi creek Isaro creek
9132 9131 9130 Total sets
Table 4 Distribution of shrimp catches by Creek study area. Percent occurrences of 25% or higher are highlighted.
Paitiani creek
9137
9138
9146
Total Sets
S. Kidwai et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science xxx (2016) 1e11
Fig. 7. Size composition of Penaeid shrimps in creek surveys. Smallest sizes appear to recruit in March and grow through the year to reach adult size in approximately one year. Individual species are cannot be separated in this analysis due to small sample sizes.
experienced transformation, in particular the construction of artificial flood levees and irrigation canals, and the resulting restrictions in the natural river flows into the sea. River outflows from 17 channels are now limited to just a single outlet in the Khobar Creek/Jangh River (Overeem and Syvitski, 2009; Syvitski and Brakenridge, 2013). Sediment deposition behind the various dams and barrages has further blocked the natural flow of the river and restricted the movement of the freshwater and sediments (Renaud et al., 2013). Compounding the effects of reduced fresh water flows, the removal of ground water for agriculture from around the delta (IGRAC, 2010), the natural flatness of the delta (Haq, 1999), and natural land subsidence in the Runn of Kutch areas due to tectonic activity (Syvitski et al., 2014), have all resulted in the compaction and sinking of the delta. The annual rainfall variability in both Sindh and the upper reaches of the Indus system results in alternation in the availability or unavailability of freshwater observed in the lower reaches of the delta in recent years (Salik et al., 2015)and the outflow into the sea (Renaud et al., 2013). During the rain years (e.g. 2010, 2013) the river flows to the sea, whereas in the dry years, the river remains dry with hardly any flow downstream (Inam et al., 2007). This reduced flow, compounded by the effect of subsistence, results in seawater moving far upstream in place of freshwater. This effect was seen from the salinity observations of CSP. There are studies showing that in some places the seawater has moved almost 80 km upstream, thereby affecting the freshwater and brackish lakes of Thatta and Badin, making them hypersaline (Expert Panel Report, Marine Resources Technology Foresight Exercise 2015- Pakistan Council for Science and Technology (PCST)- in press). As a result of subsistence, seawater intrusion, and 94% less sediment flowing into the delta than one century ago, the delta has eroded to one fifth of its' size since 1932 (Giosan et al., 2014). 4.1. People and the ecosystem-practicality of marine protected areas to sustain the indus delta as a healthy and productive ecosystem The coastal communities have derived livelihoods from the River Indus and its delta for generations and their links and dependence to the ecosystem are strong (Adhikari et al., 2010). The deterioration of this ecosystem is reflected in the social and economic conditions of the communities that live there and depend on these resources (McLeod and Salm, 2006; Dehlavi and Adil, 2012). There are two human induced impacts that can be addressed, in
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the context of national efforts, to revive, restore and sustain the Indus delta as part of Pakistan's heritage and as a producer of food, wealth and ecosystem services. The first is driven by the upstream demands for water. Sufficient freshwater inputs in every year, not just flood years, are required to provide the brackish and estuarine conditions that historically supported the delta Mangroves and fish production. The demands for irrigation, industrial and potable water from the river system must be balanced by the recognition that downstream systems are equally dependent. This is an existential challenge that the delta faces today and can only be addressed at the highest political levels. These levels of involvement and finding solutions depends on the wealth and commitment of the country; for the Indus delta, for Pakistan, it is a difficult decision coming down to; what to preserve and what to abandon (Syvitski et al., 2009). The second human impact is that of the direct exploitation of the delta ecosystems. The mangroves and the ecosystems within the creeks are under intense and largely unmanaged exploitation by delta communities and external users. In this second case the role of scientific understanding, local action, and community-based management offer avenues of progress. Effective management, based on sound scientific information, requires the commitment and resolve of all stakeholders to ensure day-to-day implementation and long-term success. The proposal for declaring parts of the Indus delta creeks Marine Protected Areas may be perhaps a first step to salvaging the ecosystem. A process to rebuild and sustain the ecosystem must work with the community nexus and recognize their traditional bond and social-economic ties. Stakeholder involvement in the policy/decision-making cycle (Fig. 8) must be meaningful and comprehensive. If the Indus delta is to be declared an MPA it should come from the willingness of the people who form the integral part of this ecosystem and their whole hearted acceptance. Completely stopping all human activities in and around the protected zones, or putting in place a punitive regulatory mechanism, is not feasible for dependent communities with little or no alternative to their traditional livelihoods. Such an approach is sure to lead to conflict and almost as certain to fail as fishermen and communities find ways to subvert a detested regulation. It is a long process to convince traditional resource users to make wholesale changes to their livelihoods and lifestyles but this is the way that leads to controls that the community itself suggests, accepts, and more importantly, adopts. No one action or management measure is going to ensure the long-term sustainability of the Indus delta ecosystem. There is a need for national policy changes to ensure the basic water
Fig. 8. Stakeholder-centric policy and decision-making cycle.
requirements of the delta ecosystem are met, a gamut of management measures, perhaps in particular areas, or particular seasons, need to be adopted by the resource users with knowledge of the best available scientific information on the expected benefits. Within the delta there are obviously areas that may have greater potential to be revived, and decisions about protecting some areas and leaving others unattended are needed and must include all stakeholders; resource users, regulators, communities, and environmental groups. Acknowledgment The observations and data used in this study was collected during the Fishery Resource Appraisal Program of Pakistan which was a Government of Pakistan funded project. The technical assistance of stock assessment was provided by Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, United Nations. The authors acknowledge the support of their institutions who collaborated in this program. The first author wishes to acknowledge the travel support provided by the Yantai Institute of Coastal Research Yantai, P.R. China to enable the presentation of this work at the LOICZ (Future Coast) workshop held in Yantai, P.R. China. The two anonymous reviewers of the MS are highly acknowledged for their suggestions that have resulted in considerable improvement. References Abildgaard, N.L., Khan, M.W., Khaliluddin, M., Qureshi, S., van Zalinge, N.P., 1986. Stock Assessment of Demersal Fish in Pakistan Waters (Results of Bottom Trawl Surveys Carried Out in 1983e 1985) FI: PAK/77/033 Field Document No. 4. FAO, Rome, 85 pp. Adhikari, B., Baig, S.P., Iftikhar, U.A., 2010. The use and management of mangrove ecosystems in Pakistan. J. Environ. Dev. 19 (4), 446e467. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1177/1070496510384392. Agardy, Y., 1994. Advances in marine conservation: the role of marine protected areas. Trends Ecol. Evol. 9, 267e270. Ahmed, M.F., 1988. Fish of Pakistan's mangrove areas. In: Thompson, M.F., Tirmizi, N.M. (Eds.), Marine Science of the Arabian Sea. Proceeding Of International Conference. Alnoor Enterprises, Pakistan, pp. 429e438. Ahmed, S.I., 1992. Coping with excessive salt in their growth environments: osmo regulation and other survival strategies deployed by mangroves. Pak. J. Mar. Sci. 1, 73e86. Ahmed, M., Abbas, G., 1999. Summer abundance of juvenile finfish and shellfish in Korangi creek, Karachi (Pakistan: northern Arabian sea). Pak. J. Zool. 31 (4), 365e378. Ahmed, M., Ayub, Z., Nisa, Z., 1999. Distribution and abundance of juvenile and sub adult fishes in Sindh creeks and backwaters (Pakistan). Pak. J. Zool. 31 (4), 327e338. Anon, 1976e77. Final Report ' Survey Results of Dr. Fridtjof Nansen” Indian Ocean Fishery and Development Program. Pelagic Fish Assessment Survey North Arabian Sea. Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway. FAO. 26. Anon, 1986. Summary of Findings “Dr. Fridtjof Nansen” Surveys of Pakistan Fishery Resources, September 83-June 84. Institute of Marine Research, Bergenm Norway. UNDP/FAO Programme GLO/82/001.28. Anon, 2012. Handbook of Fisheries Statistics of Pakistan, vol. 20. Marine Fisheries Department, Government of Pakistan, Fish Harbour, West Wharf, Karachi p.145. Ashraf, S., Nadeem, Q., Hasan, M., 2002. Mapping changes in mangrove forest extent in a selected part of the Indus delta: identifying management and protection gaps using landsat data. In: Proceedings of Consultative Workshop on Indus Delta Eco-region (IDER), December 16-19, 2002, pp. 59e67. Ayub, Z., 1998. A Study of Distribution Abundance and Reproductive Biology of Pakistani Penaeid Shrimps. PhD thesis. University of Karachi, Pakistan. Ayub, Z., Ahmed, M., 2000. Distribution and abundance of penaeid shrimp juveniles in the backwaters and creeks along the coast of Sindh (Pakistan). Pak. J. Zool. 34 (1), 19e28. Banse, K., 1984. Overview of the hydrography and associated biological phenomenon in the Arabian Sea, off Pakistan. In: Haq, B.U., Milliman, J. (Eds.), Marine Geology and Oceanography of Arabian Sea and the Coastal Pakistan. VNR/SAE Co., New York, pp. 271e303. Bianchi, G., 1985. FAO Species Identification Sheets for Fishery Purpose. Field Guide to the Commercial Marine and Brackish Water Species of Pakistan. Prepared with the Support of PAK/77/0033 and FAO (FIRM) Regular Programme. FAO, Rome, 200 pp. Bouillon, S., et al., 2008. Mangrove production and carbon sinks: a revision of global budget estimates. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 22, GB2013. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1029/2007GB003052.
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Overeem, I., Syvitski, J.P.M., 2009. Dynamics and Vulnerability of Delta Systems. LOICZ Reports & Studies No. 35. GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, 54 pp. ISSN: 1383 4304. Meadows, A., Meadows, P. (Eds.), 1999. The Indus River- Biodiversity, Resources, Humankind- Linnean Society of London. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK. Pauly, D., Christensen, V., Guenette, S., Pitcher, T., Sumaila, U.R., Walters, C., et al., 2002. Towards sustainability in world fisheries. Nature 418, 689e695. Qureshi, M.T., 1996. Restoration of mangroves in Pakistan. In: Field, C.D. (Ed.), Restoration of Mangrove Ecosystems. International Society for Mangrove Ecosystem, Okinawa, Japan, pp. 126e142. Reef, R., Feller, I.C., Lovelock, C.E., 2010. Nutrition of mangroves. Tree Physiol. 30, 1148e1160. Renaud, F.G., Syvitski, J.P.M., Sebesvari, Z., Werners, S.E., Kremer, H., Keunzer, C., Ramesh, R., Jeuken, A., Friedrich, J., 2013. Tipping from the Holecene to the Anthropocene: how threatened are major world deltas? Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 5 (6), 644e654. Roberts, M., 1894. The Indus Delta Country. A Memoir Chiefly on its Ancient Geography and History. Kagan, Paul, Trench, Truber & Co., Ltd., Paternoster House Charing Cross Road. London. Roberts, C.M., Hawkins, J.P., Gell, F.R., 2005. The role of marine reserves in achieving sustainable fisheries. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Ser. B 360, 123e132. Saifullah, S.M., 1982. Mangrove ecosystem of Pakistan, the third research on mangroves in Middle East. Japan Cooperative Center for the Middle East, Publ., Tokyo, Japan. No. 137. Salik, K.M., Jahangir, S., Zahdi, W.ulZ., Hasson, S. ul, 2015. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation options for the coastal communities of Pakistan. Ocean Coast. Manag. 112, 61e73. Siddiqui, P.J.A., Farooq, S., Shafique, S., Burhan, Z., Farooqi, Z., 2008. Conservation and management of biodiversity through the establishment of marine protected areas. Ocean Coast. Manag. 51, 377e382. Sultana, R., 2000. Bionomics and Population Structure of Juvenile of Shrimp, with Special Reference to the Genus Penaeus Occurring in Karachi Back Water. PhD thesis. University of Karachi, Pakistan. Syvitski, J.P.M., et al., 2009. Sinking deltas due to human activities. Nat. Geosci. 2, 681e686. Syvitski, J.P.M., Brakenridge, G.R., 2013. Causation and avoidance of catastrophic flooding along the Indus River, Pakistan. GSA Today. Syvitski, J.P.M., Kettner, A.J., Overeem, I., Giosan, L., Brakenridge, M., Billam Roger, M.H., 2014. Metamorphosis of the Indus delta and lower floodplain. Anthropocene. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene. Wood, L.J., Fish, L., Laughren, J., Pauly, D., 2012. Review: Assessing progress towards global marine protection targets: shortfalls in information and action. Oryx 42 (3), 340e351. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S003060530800046X. Worm, B., Barbier, E.B., Beaumont, N., Duffy, J.E., Folke, C., Halpern, B.S., Jackson, J.B.C., Lotze, H.K., Mccheli, F., Palumbi, S.R., Sala, E., Selkoe, K.A., Stachowicz, J.J., Watson, R., 2006. Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science 314 (5800), 787e790. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/ science.1132294.
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Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta? Samina Kidwai a, *, Paul Fanning b, Waqar Ahmed a, Mohsin Tabrez a, Jing Zhang c, Muhammad Wasim Khan d a
National Institute of Oceanography, ST 47 Block 1 Clifton, Karachi-75600, Pakistan Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations, Marine Fisheries Department, West Wharf, Karachi, Pakistan State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (SKLEC), East China Normal University, 3663 Zhongshan Road North, Shanghai 200062, China d Marine Fisheries Department, West Wharf, Karachi, Pakistan b c
a r t i c l e i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Article history: Received 28 February 2016 Received in revised form 14 September 2016 Accepted 23 September 2016 Available online xxx
The River Indus delta is the most prominent feature on the Pakistan coast. Owing to its prominence, mangrove ecosystem, historical, ecological and economic significance it is also a proposed Marine Protected Area (MPA). Currently there are no designated MPAs in Pakistan. This paper presents findings of the Fishery Resource Appraisal Project of Pakistan (FRAPP) a fishery stock assessment carried out for the pelagic and demersal fishery resource of Pakistan from 2009 to 2015 and the Creek Survey Program (CSP) which was part of FRAPP. And discusses how the delta suffers from physical stress. The observations from FRAPP indicates deterioration in the mangrove ecosystem, that are evident in the form of loss of biodiversity and biological productivity. The 600 observations from 10 major creeks showed that trawl catches were a mix of generally small size fish and shrimp. Catches averaged less than 1 kg per tow in all the creeks sampled. Catch weights were somewhat higher in Isaro, WadiKhuddi, Paitiani, Dabbo, Richaal Creeks all of which were near mangrove areas and open sea. The most frequently occurring species of shrimps caught in the trawls belonged to 7 major taxa. The Khobar Creek and Upper Wari Creek are notable for the high rates of occurrence of every group except the Caridea. They are also the only two creeks where the freshwater family Paleomonidae is common. The size composition of the important penaeid family of shrimps in all study areas combined suggests that the smallest shrimps (0.5 e1.5 cm carapace length CL) enter the creeks in February/March and adults (5e6 cm CL) move out again 6e12 months later. Four species of Penaeus (monodon, japonicus, semisulcatus, merguiensis), two species of Metapenaeus (monoceros, affinis), Parapeneoposis stylifera and Solenosera sp. were caught, all in low abundance, less than 0.5 Kg tow1. The shrimp catches in the area off the Sindh coast, the catches averaged 4.30 ± 13.40 kg h1 on the inner shelf (20e50 m) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 on the outer shelf (51e200 m). Further east, on the Kori bank, the shrimp catch averaged 4.40 ± 6.6 kg h1 (inner shelf) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 (outer shelf). Penaeus spp. were more abundant in the inshore and Metapenaeus spp. on the outer shelf. The creeks that have a direct connection to the sea and support a natural mangrove stand are significantly more productive than the smaller creeks. Scientific and management questions have arisen that are addressed in order to help revive the delta and hope that this results in a spillover effect that will spread on to the shelf areas. Fisher communities depend heavily on the delta and coastal waters and its natural resources for their livelihood. Their participation and ownership on the resource is over generations, and therefore their involvement is key to proposing any management and conservation initiatives. The study proposes how the delta and its ecosystem in parts should be protected and why and how it is a prime candidate for being declared nationally as protected. This paper proposes a way forward. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: River Indus delta Marine protected area Ecosystem Human society Climate change
* Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (S. Kidwai). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016 0272-7714/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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1. Introduction The River Indus delta is the most prominent feature on the coast of Pakistan. It is also under consideration as one of several potential Marine Protected Areas (MPA) in Pakistan (Fig. 1, left panel) (Worldbank, 1999 (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/ marine-protected-areas-number-wb-data.html); Siddiqui et al., 2008). The Indus delta is a large wave dominated delta, with a complex network of major and minor creeks (Fig. 1, right panel) that support a mangrove ecosystem. The Indus delta that was once nourished by 17 freshwater channels is now restricted to a single channel, the mouth of the Khobar creek (Jhang river), that opens into the Arabian Sea (Syvitski and Brakenridge, 2013). There are now an average of 138 days per year when there is zero discharge to the delta downstream of the Kotri Barrage (Renaud et al., 2013). The Sindh shelf area historically accounted for 70% of commercial fisheries landings. More recently, fisheries statistics show that fraction has declined to less than 60% to the marine commercial fishery of Pakistan (Fig. 2a) and the present study shows that the decline is much more. The dependence of coastal communities on fishing has increased, with a corresponding rise in the number of fishing boats operating on the shelf off the delta (Fig. 2b). The annual catch per boat have declined with increasing effort since the 1980s (Fig. 2c). The Indus river and its delta cradled an ancient civilization. The resources of the coastal and marine waters of the Indus River system have sustained civilizations since the 1st century BC (Roberts, 1894). It continues to be an area of economic significance today and meets both natural and cultural criteria for protection as an MPA (Day et al., 2012). The extension in the deadline for establishment of 10% protected area expects that lagging nations can expand their MPA systems (Wood et al., 2012). This is expected to spill over beyond the MPA boundary (Lester et al., 2009) that will contribute towards poverty reduction and support sustainable development as a result. Based on the ecosystem role of mangroves elsewhere, and traditional
beliefs within the coastal communities in Pakistan, the Indus delta mangrove ecosystem would play a valuable role in the life cycles of at least some important marine fishery stocks that is expected to sustain the coastal fisher communities that have depended on this resource for many generations. The Fishery Resource Appraisal in Pakistan Project (FRAPP) which ran from 2009 to 2015, included a Creek Survey Programme (CSP) in 2013e14. The CSP was complementary to four offshore surveys also conducted under the FRAPP. In 2009, a demersal survey was conducted on the shelf off the Sindh coast. In 2010 two surveys were conducted. A broader and more detailed demersal survey covered the fish and invertebrate stocks of the entire shelf area. The second 2010 survey was an acoustic/pelagic trawl survey of the entire Exclusive Economic Zone and shelf area. The final FRAPP survey in 2015 again surveyed the demersal stocks of the shelf area only (Cruise reports, Fanning et al., 2009, 2011, 2015). Prior to the FRAPP surveys, the last such work in Pakistan was carried out in 1980s (Abildgaard et al., 1986). Since then there was minimal data collection and no new assessments of stock status. Although total catch volumes have remained relatively high there have been significant declines in annual catch per boat over the years based on commercial fishery landings statistics (Anon, 2012; Fig. 2a,c). Both the FRAPP surveys and commercial statistics indicate significant changes in fishery productivity with increased contributions of low-valued catch for fish meal production and large declines in high-valued export species. Shrimp were once the main commercial fishery on the shelf off the Indus, primarily from the trawl fishery. There has been a decline in both the diversity and total production of shrimp reported (Marine Fisheries Department, unpublished data 2015, Kamal, 2004) and also from the recent stock assessment (Fanning et al., 2011, 2015; CSP findings-personal communications). These changes are taken as signs of stress on the stocks and the supporting ecosystem. While the main stressors are ultimately climate driven, resulting from Pakistan's arid climate, the water extractions and controls on the Indus River for human use are the direct
Fig. 1. Coast of Pakistan. Left Panel: The Indus delta is circled. The 100 m depth contour is the approximate limit of the continental shelf fishing grounds which are narrow in the west but much wider off the Indus delta. Right panel: The Indus delta, showing the creeks that were studied during the Fishery Resource Appraisal Program Pakistan (FRAPP), Creek Survey Program (CSP), the sampling stations are shown as red dots. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
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Fig. 2. a. The total commercial landing and the proportion of the landings from the Sindh coast in metric tonnes (MT). b. The increase in the number of fishing vessels operating in the Sindh coast. c. The annual catch per vessel as a lowest common denominator for Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE), marine fisheries landings (bars, in MT) in Sindh and corresponding catch per unit effort (line, in kg1vessel1yr1) for Sindh based vessels.
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stresses. In flood years there is some availability of freshwater in the river going to the sea but in dry years there is little or no water reaching the downstream reaches (Renaud et al., 2013). Lack of freshwater inputs from the river is rapidly transforming the deltaic area as sea water moves upstream. Loss of mangrove stands from freshwater starvation during dry years leads to the reduction of the holding capacity of the coastal banks as sediment nourishment and retention declines, and results in coastal erosion visible in many locations throughout the delta. This study presents the overall fishery production, with a focus on shrimp, observed during the FRAPP through the surveys of the shelf area off the Indus delta and the within the creeks during the CSP. The salinity observations in the Khobar creek in the flood (2013) and dry (2014) years demonstrate impact of the freshwater releases from the barrages in the river Indus on the downstream environment of the river system. The objective is to assess and demonstrate risks due to continued unmanaged exploitation of the Indus water, fisheries resources, and environment. The dependence of the local communities on these natural resources is high and therefore it is not practical to stop all activities within the delta and its creeks. However, there is an urgent need to conserve and protect at least some parts of the delta, perhaps through declaration of parts of it as one or more MPAs, with the hope that spillover effects may extend to the fishery of the shelf. MPAs are a suitable management tool to slow down, stop, and even reverse declines in biodiversity and fisheries (Agardy, 1994; Pauly et al., 2002; Roberts et al., 2005) while continuing to sustain communities and fisheries. This is an option that is worth exploring for the Indus delta and its creek ecosystem. This paper demonstrates the decline in the overall biodiversity and fishery productivity in the creeks and offshore, shrimp catch declines in particular, and proposes that MPAs should be established in order to halt further deterioration and make the first steps towards revival of healthy and productive Indus delta ecosystems. The study presents the current ecological conditions that prevail in the study area and help provide justification to declare the creeks of the River Indus delta as MPA. 2. Material and methods 2.1. Survey operations Surveys were conducted on the continental shelf, (offshore surveys), and in the Indus delta creeks (creeks surveys). Three offshore demersal trawl surveys were conducted on the continental shelf adjoining the Indus delta during 2009, 2010, 2015 (Cruise reports, Fanning et al., 2009, 2011, 2015). During the Creek Survey Program (CSP) in 2013/14, ten creeks were sampled on approximately a monthly basis.
creeks (indicated by *) were too exposed to the sea for safe sampling operations in the small vessel used. 2.2.2. Sampling observations During the CSP, temperature and salinity observations were recorded with a YSI CASTAWAY CTD (http://www.sontek.com/ productsdetail.php?CastAway-CTD-11) once each sampling station day in a study area. Fish and invertebrate samples were collected with two different trawls, both from Innovative Net Systems (http://www.fishtrawls.com). A 250 Mamou surface trawl includes a floating headline and trawl doors to achieve a wide swath of the surface and sub-surface species. The net depth is adjustable to a maximum of 5 m deep, it was used in the full depth configuration throughout the CSP. A 160 SKT Model 38 bottom trawl is intended for sampling fish and invertebrates on or near (2 m) the bottom. It uses weighted trawl doors and is suitable for muddy or sandy bottoms. Both trawls were hand-operated using 30 m tow lines. The two nets were fished on each sampling site each month and the combination is expected to adequately sample the fish and invertebrate groups found in the creeks. The trawl catches were preserved in ice, on board the vessel and detailed sampling for species identification (Bianchi, 1985), size composition and weight/length data was completed in the laboratory at the Marine Fisheries Department. Two field teams operated from a small vessel (13 m) to conduct sampling in each creek study area once a month from April 2013 to May 2014. Operational difficulties restricted activities early in the programme and weather conditions were a major factor at times, especially in the sea-exposed study areas. Table 1 provides an overview of the number of times each creek was sampled. Although the study programme called for 12 monthly samples in each of 13 study areas, in the end there were 10 creek study areas each of which was sampled at least 10 times during the year. Findings from these 10 creeks are discussed below. 2.3. Offshore surveys The FRAPP offshore surveys were conducted in November 2009, OctobereNovember 2010 and February 2015. Randomly selected stations were from a depth and area stratified grid and bottom trawl tows were made at each site (Table 2). Each standard tow was 30 min at a towing speed of 3.5 knots. Catches were sorted identified and sampled on board the research vessel, including length frequencies and length/weight data. The detailed methodology of the fishing trawls is given in cruise reports of surveys of November 2009, November 2010, February 2015. Environmental conditions were sampled using Niskin bottles (2009), SeaBird SBE19 CTD sonde and rosette sampler (2010) and YSI 6600 multiparameter sonde (2015) (Cruise reports, Fanning et al., 2009, 2011, 2015).
2.2. Creeks survey programme 3. Results 2.2.1. Sampling site The River Indus delta comprises of a network of 17 major and many minor creeks (Figs. 1b and 3a). The creeks were selected to represent three different cases, those with a) direct connection to the sea, b) connection to the river and sea, and c) smaller creeks. The main freshwater flow is in the Khobar Creek (Jhang river) flowing downstream through the Khobar creek before it enters the Arabian Sea (Fig. 3a). The CSP was carried out for one year, from April 2013 to May 2014. Ten creeks were successfully surveyed approximately every month in order to obtain the abundance, diversity and productivity data over an annual cycle (west to east, Isaro, WadiKhuddi, Paitiani, Mal, Dabbo, Richhal, Chann, Chani, Hajamro, Kahr*, Kajhar*, Khobar (Jhang river), Upper Wari). Two
3.1. Environmental conditions in the Indus estuary and the adjoining coastal waters During the CSP, the conditions in the Khobar Creek (Jangh river, Indus main channel into the Arabian Sea) were affected by high runoff levels in 2013 followed by very low water flows in 2014. In August 2013, the salinity was less than 1 PSU (practical salinity unit, a unit less quantity, where <0.23 PSU is freshwater and marine water is 32 PSU). The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that 2013 was a flood year and the precipitation rate in August 2013 (southwest monsoons) was the highest of the year (MET Department, Pakistan, http://www.pmd.gov.pk 2013). The CSP survey
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
S. Kidwai et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science xxx (2016) 1e11
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Fig. 3. a. Creek survey programme study areas during FRAPP surveys 2013e14. b. Offshore survey stratification used in all FRAPP surveys 2009e2015. Inshore strata are 10e50 m depth range and offshore are 50e200 m. (mak ¼ Makran, son ¼ Sonmiani, sind ¼ Sindh, in ¼ inshore, off ¼ offshore).
detected the presence of freshwater in the Jangh river all the way until it entered the sea. By November 2013 the salinity increased slightly, ranging up to 10-PSU at the river mouth (Fig. 4a). In 2014, there was less precipitation, freshwater flow in the river was reduced, and the sea moved upstream. From May 2014 onwards the
salinity ranged between 25 and 32 PSU at the river mouth and elevated salinities were observed almost 30 km upstream, indicative of upstream seawater intrusion (Fig. 4b). The most complete environmental data for the offshore area was from the 2010 demersal survey, carried out post-flooding in
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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Table 1 Numbers of monthly samples (surface and bottom trawls) collected from Creek Survey Programme study areas.
2013 May/Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Isaro
Wadi Khuddi
Paitiani
Mal
Dabbo
Richhal
5 1 7 4 5 5 6
1 1 2 5 3 2 5
3 2 6 6 3 2 4
6 4 5 7 6
4 7 8 5 8
61
51
1 3 6 6 3 3 5
4 4 1 3 4
2 1 7 3 4 6 6
1 3 3 1 1
4 4 4 4 4
5 5 3 6 4
2 2 2 2 2
6 8 10 10 10
6 6 5 6 6
3 2 8 7 8
7 8 8 7 6
2 6 7 5 6
5 6 5 6 5
6 6 7 6 7
70
56
44
65
35
49
55
Table 2 Bottom trawl samples collected during offshore surveys by the FRAP project. Samples included in the present study indicated by highlighted rows of table. Stratum Makran inshore Makran offshore Sonmiani inshore Sonmiani offshore Sindh inshore Sindh offshore
2009
2010
2015
8 8 11 24
20 7 4 8 14 20
24 6 5 4 14 32
10 5
7 4
Kori inshore Kori offshore
OctobereNovember 2010. The significant floods of 2010 resulted in the surface layers (<50 m) showing reduced salinity from a nearshore freshwater plume in the upper right corner of Fig. 5 and off the shelf in the central section. 3.2. Fish and shrimp catches in the creeks In the creeks the trawl catches were a mix of generally small size fish and shrimp (Fig. 6). Catches averaged less than 1 kg per tow in all the creeks sampled (Table 3). Catch weights were somewhat higher in Isaro, WadiKhuddi, Paitiani, Dabbo, Richaal Creeks all of which were near mangrove areas. The highest volumes observed were dominated by jellyfish. 3.3. Shrimp catch in the creeks and coastal waters The most frequently occurring species of shrimps caught in the trawls belonged to 7 major taxa (Table 4). The spatial distribution of the major shrimp taxa amongst the study areas is compared based on occurrences and catch rates. Because the sample sizes vary between areas, the rate of occurrence (Number of samples including the taxon/Number of samples from the study area) is used to assess the relative suitability of each study area habitat. An arbitrary threshold of 25% is used in Table 4 to highlight distributions. The Khobar Creek and Upper Wari Creek are notable for the high rates of occurrence of every group except the Caridea. Even Parapenaeus longipes, which is not abundant enough to reach the 25% threshold in any creek, has relatively high rate of occurrence in those two creeks. They are also the only two creeks where the freshwater family Paleomonidae is common. These two creek systems were also the ones with the highest degree of fresh water over the course of the survey programme, suggesting that freshwater inputs are important facets of shrimp species habitat in the creeks.
Chhan
Chani
Hajamro
Jangh river
Upper Wari
Total
4 1 10 6 9 4
18 8 45 52 37 43 45
2 4 7 9 8
6 5 9 10 10
53 62 79 78 80
40
74
600
2
The size composition of the important penaeid family of shrimps in all study areas combined suggests that the smallest shrimps (0.5e1.5 cm carapace length CL) enter the creeks in February/March and adults (5e6 cm CL) move out again 6e12 months later (Fig. 7). Unfortunately, the small samples sizes do not allow for length frequency analysis of each species. In November 2009 a demersal swept area survey covered the Sindh and Sonmiani shelf areas using the FRV Ferdows-1 (Fanning et al., 2009). The vessel was equipped with a commercial fish trawl with limited suitability for shrimp. Four species of Penaeus (monodon, japonicus, semisulcatus, merguiensis), two species of Metapenaeus (monoceros, affinis), Parapeneoposis stylifera and Solenosera sp. were caught, all in low abundance, less than 0.5 Kg tow1. Another survey, in OctobereNovember 2010, used a survey trawl (Super Gisund) specifically modified for better retention of small specimens. The shrimp catches in that survey were much higher. In the area off the Sindh coast, the catches averaged 4.30 ± 13.40 kg h1 on the inner shelf (20e50 m) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 on the outer shelf (51e200 m). Further east, on the Kori bank, the shrimp catch averaged 4.40 ± 6.6 kg h1 (inner shelf) and 1.7 ± 6.6 kg h1 (outer shelf). Penaeus spp. were more abundant in the inshore and Metapenaeus spp. on the outer shelf (Fanning et al., 2011). In February 2015, a third demersal trawl survey was completed using the FRV Ferdows-1 but equipped with the Super Gisund survey trawl. In spite of the trawl change the shrimp catches were much lower than in 2010. Metapeneopsis stridulans, Metapeneaus monoceros, Penaeus sp., Parapeneus longipes were reported in low catch, by stratum standardized mean catch per tow (Kg tow1) 0.111e0.357 (off Sindh) 0.061e0.089 (Kori creek) and low numbers, standardized mean catch per tow (Number tow1) was 1.127, 7.172 (Sindh) and 0, 3.15 (Kori creek). There is a general decline in the demersal fish stock from the 2010 survey (MFD, 2016 unpublished data, Fanning et al., 2015). 4. Discussion It is clear that the Indus delta creeks ecosystem is experiencing a combination of human induced stressors. Water extractions and diversions, mangrove cutting, and excessive fishing with destructive gears are all direct human impacts. The use of illegal fishing gear and practices, over exploitation, and violations of the fishing closures are all indicative of the weakness of fisheries and coastal zone management, both in application and in approach. Ecosystem stress shows in the loss of biodiversity and reduced fisheries productivity.
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
S. Kidwai et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science xxx (2016) 1e11
7
Fig. 4. a. Mean monthly salinity (PSU) at Khobar Creek mouth at the entry to the sea. b. Salinity (colour bar -PSU) distribution in Khobar Creek in August 2014 (ebb tide observations). (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
The ecosystem of the Indus delta estuary is dynamic, climatically driven and dependent on the historical river inflows. Human interventions on the river and exploitation of the delta's resources put pressures on the ecosystem's sustainability. From a large mangrove ecosystem with eight species of mangrove based on surveys in 1960e61 (Saifullah, 1982) and again in 1983e84. It has reduced in extent and only three species remain (Avicennia marina, Ceriops tagal and Aegiceras corniculata) (Qureshi, 1996). Avicennia marina accounts for 97% of the natural mangroves in the delta (Meadows and Meadows, 1999; Ashraf et al., 2002), mainly because it can tolerate high salinity levels (Ahmed, 1992. Our observations from December 2015 are that natural mangrove stands are restricted to the Isaro, Wadi Khuddi, Patiani, and Dabbo creeks, all dominated by A marina. Other species, Rhizophora marcronata, Aegiceros corniculata, and Ceriops tagal, are only scantily present. In other creeks most of the adjoining land area is denuded of vegetation, drastically undermining the stability of the creek system. Coastal vegetation such as mangrove and sea grasses help maintain healthy ecosystems. They help stabilize shorelines, act as buffers to the mainland, sequester carbon, and serve as refuges for critical life stages of marine and estuarine species (Bouillon et al., 2008; Reef et al., 2010). Healthy ecosystems with complete and welldeveloped food web ensure ecological sustainability and support coastal communities by replenishing fishery stocks in the creeks and in the sea and provide a basis for long-term food security
(Worm et al., 2006; Brander, 2010). It is well established that the fishery productivity on the shelf areas off Sindh is closely associated with the mangrove ecosystem (Ali Khan 1976, Anon, 1976e77, 1986, Ahmed, 1988; Banse, 1984; Ahmed et al., 1999; Ahmed and Abbas, 1999; Ayub and Ahmed, 2000). The commercially important groups, both from the shallow waters and deeper waters, use the mangrove creeks as nurseries, spawning habitats or feeding grounds, the productivity of the creeks gets distributed throughout the fishery resources on the shelf (Kidwai and Amjad, 2001; Kidwai, 2005) as a spillover from the mangrove ecosystem and the creeks. The penaeid shrimp have a complex reproductive strategy which is influenced by environmental conditions. Shrimp in Pakistani waters spawn all the year round although there is a peak season in SeptembereOctober for the primary commercial species (Sultana, 2000. PhD Dissertation, Ayub, 1998. PhD Dissertation). Most of these species spawn in the open sea and the post-larvae stages move inshore into the protected and nutrient rich areas in the creeks. During the Southwest monsoons, the water circulation is landwards and the currents brings the shrimp into the creeks to spend vulnerable juvenile stages in and around the mangrove ecosystem. June and July, part of the summer monsoon period, is designated as a closed season for shrimp trawling in Pakistan although most years the closure is incomplete or shortened. Shrimp fisheries were the most valuable commercial fisheries in Pakistan. Of thirty penaeid species reported from Pakistan, twelve
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Fig. 5. Salinity (PSU) in the offshore post-flood year OctobereNovember 2010. Reduced salinity in the river plume is visible in the on-shelf surface waters between 0 and 30 km along the section. Inset figure shows the section stations included.
Fig. 6. A typical trawl catch in the creek survey characterized by small amount of smaller sized fish/shrimp and the presence of jellyfish.
are exploited commercially (Kazmi, 2003). The commercial landing statistics have shown a decline in shrimp catch on the Sindh coast over the years despite increases in vessel numbers and fishing effort. In 1986 an assessment of the shrimp stocks had concluded that shrimp were already being exploited at or above the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) (Abildgaard et al., 1986) and recommended limiting the trawler fleet to 600 boats. Since then the trawler fleet has grown by 300% however during this interval no new stock assessments were made. Catches averaged almost 29,000 t per year in the mid-1980s however the fishery continued to expand and catch rates declined. Since 2008 the shrimp fishery has averaged less than 18,500 t per year despite many more boats and greater fishing effort (2016; personal communications). Our findings from the CSP show low catches in the creeks, both in volume and in diversity. Over 150 species have been reported from the creeks (Ahmed, 1988), but the catches during the CSP included less than 70 species, mostly small sized fish of low commercial significance and not juveniles of high commercial value species. Since the 19th century, the Indus delta and its ecosystem has
Table 3 Mean trawl catch per tow (kg) per month from Creek Surveys, all species combined, excluding jelly fish.
2013 May/Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total
Isaro
Wadi Khuddi
Paitiani
Mal
Dabbo
Richhal
Chhan
Chani
0.663 0.259 0.229 0.232 0.779 0.256 0.543
0.270 0.402 0.005 1.423 0.323 0.018 0.434
0.301 0.405 0.790 0.132 0.241 0.194 0.619
0.421 0.019 0.442 0.140 0.251 0.353
0.081 0.140 0.345 0.412 0.154 0.334
0.030 0.093 0.233 0.509 0.449 0.333
Hajamro
Jangh river
1.957 0.522 0.044 1.182 0.041 0.006 0.158
0.749
0.250
0.065 0.238 0.012 0.294 0.108
6.094 0.237 0.148 0.801 0.073 0.075 0.556
0.634 0.005 0.179 0.079 0.004
0.536 0.552 0.133 0.625 0.086
0.349 0.158 0.170 2.480 0.370
0.066 0.567 0.712 0.622 0.537
0.014 0.228 0.083 0.122 0.197 0.380
0.058 0.019 0.381 0.258 0.109 0.154
0.166 0.118 0.469 0.149 0.415 0.775
0.030 0.216 0.084 1.058 0.275 0.301
0.066 0.234 0.073 0.035 0.362 0.268
0.138 0.171 0.404 0.079 0.154 0.447
0.689 1.444 0.260 0.236 0.161 0.529
Upper Wari
Total
0.580 0.172 0.687 0.307 0.581 0.108
1.358 0.365 0.276 0.543 0.270 0.476 0.320
0.250 0.394 0.536 0.124 0.346 0.371
0.177 0.279 0.301 0.284 0.261 0.409
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
9
39
52.7%
28
70.0%
11
2
2.8%
1 3
4.6% 2.3%
1
3.2%
2.0%
2
% occur.
Paleomonidae
Occurrence
1
0.0%
3.6%
2
22.4%
3.6%
92
154 3
4.1%
1
2.5%
17
16
16.7%
6 22
33.8% 6.8%
3 28
50.0% 38.6%
27
32.3%
21.6%
20
% occur.
Caridea
Occurrence
11
34.7%
29.1%
107 32.4% 52.5% 5.5% 22.4% 2.8% 21.4% 11.4% 27.5% 9.7% % occur.
Parapenaeopsis sp.
7 11.3% 6 Parapenaeus longipes
Occurrence % occur. Occurrence
11 21.6% 14
7 10.0% 8
5 8.9% 12
4 9.1%
0.0%
6.2%
12 16.2% 24 4 10.0% 21 6 9.2% 4
3 8.3% 1
2 4.1% 11
1 1.8% 3
62
145 22
29.7%
17
42.5%
5
9.1%
10
20.4% 13.9%
5 14
21.5% 18.2%
8 10
17.9% 28.6%
20
30.6%
27.5%
19
% occur.
Peneaus indicus
Occurrence
14
40
54.1% 37.5% 9.1% 17.7% % occur.
29.4%
25.7%
25.0%
27.3%
24.6%
8.3%
28.6%
15 5
22.4%
14 3
13.9% 10.8%
16 12
11.4% 10.7%
14 18
12.9% 33.3% 25.8%
11 Occurrence Metapenaeus sp.
% occur.
15
60.8% 57.5% 5.5%
166
148
606 74
45
40
23
55
3
49
11 5
36 65
7 5
44 56
6 9
70 51
17
62
16 Occurrence Sergestes sp.
Jangh river
Upper Wari creek
9141
Chani creek
Hajamro creek
9136
Chhan creek Richhal creek
9135 9134
Dabbo creek Mal creek
9133
Waddi Khuddi creek Isaro creek
9132 9131 9130 Total sets
Table 4 Distribution of shrimp catches by Creek study area. Percent occurrences of 25% or higher are highlighted.
Paitiani creek
9137
9138
9146
Total Sets
S. Kidwai et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science xxx (2016) 1e11
Fig. 7. Size composition of Penaeid shrimps in creek surveys. Smallest sizes appear to recruit in March and grow through the year to reach adult size in approximately one year. Individual species are cannot be separated in this analysis due to small sample sizes.
experienced transformation, in particular the construction of artificial flood levees and irrigation canals, and the resulting restrictions in the natural river flows into the sea. River outflows from 17 channels are now limited to just a single outlet in the Khobar Creek/Jangh River (Overeem and Syvitski, 2009; Syvitski and Brakenridge, 2013). Sediment deposition behind the various dams and barrages has further blocked the natural flow of the river and restricted the movement of the freshwater and sediments (Renaud et al., 2013). Compounding the effects of reduced fresh water flows, the removal of ground water for agriculture from around the delta (IGRAC, 2010), the natural flatness of the delta (Haq, 1999), and natural land subsidence in the Runn of Kutch areas due to tectonic activity (Syvitski et al., 2014), have all resulted in the compaction and sinking of the delta. The annual rainfall variability in both Sindh and the upper reaches of the Indus system results in alternation in the availability or unavailability of freshwater observed in the lower reaches of the delta in recent years (Salik et al., 2015)and the outflow into the sea (Renaud et al., 2013). During the rain years (e.g. 2010, 2013) the river flows to the sea, whereas in the dry years, the river remains dry with hardly any flow downstream (Inam et al., 2007). This reduced flow, compounded by the effect of subsistence, results in seawater moving far upstream in place of freshwater. This effect was seen from the salinity observations of CSP. There are studies showing that in some places the seawater has moved almost 80 km upstream, thereby affecting the freshwater and brackish lakes of Thatta and Badin, making them hypersaline (Expert Panel Report, Marine Resources Technology Foresight Exercise 2015- Pakistan Council for Science and Technology (PCST)- in press). As a result of subsistence, seawater intrusion, and 94% less sediment flowing into the delta than one century ago, the delta has eroded to one fifth of its' size since 1932 (Giosan et al., 2014). 4.1. People and the ecosystem-practicality of marine protected areas to sustain the indus delta as a healthy and productive ecosystem The coastal communities have derived livelihoods from the River Indus and its delta for generations and their links and dependence to the ecosystem are strong (Adhikari et al., 2010). The deterioration of this ecosystem is reflected in the social and economic conditions of the communities that live there and depend on these resources (McLeod and Salm, 2006; Dehlavi and Adil, 2012). There are two human induced impacts that can be addressed, in
Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016
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S. Kidwai et al. / Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science xxx (2016) 1e11
the context of national efforts, to revive, restore and sustain the Indus delta as part of Pakistan's heritage and as a producer of food, wealth and ecosystem services. The first is driven by the upstream demands for water. Sufficient freshwater inputs in every year, not just flood years, are required to provide the brackish and estuarine conditions that historically supported the delta Mangroves and fish production. The demands for irrigation, industrial and potable water from the river system must be balanced by the recognition that downstream systems are equally dependent. This is an existential challenge that the delta faces today and can only be addressed at the highest political levels. These levels of involvement and finding solutions depends on the wealth and commitment of the country; for the Indus delta, for Pakistan, it is a difficult decision coming down to; what to preserve and what to abandon (Syvitski et al., 2009). The second human impact is that of the direct exploitation of the delta ecosystems. The mangroves and the ecosystems within the creeks are under intense and largely unmanaged exploitation by delta communities and external users. In this second case the role of scientific understanding, local action, and community-based management offer avenues of progress. Effective management, based on sound scientific information, requires the commitment and resolve of all stakeholders to ensure day-to-day implementation and long-term success. The proposal for declaring parts of the Indus delta creeks Marine Protected Areas may be perhaps a first step to salvaging the ecosystem. A process to rebuild and sustain the ecosystem must work with the community nexus and recognize their traditional bond and social-economic ties. Stakeholder involvement in the policy/decision-making cycle (Fig. 8) must be meaningful and comprehensive. If the Indus delta is to be declared an MPA it should come from the willingness of the people who form the integral part of this ecosystem and their whole hearted acceptance. Completely stopping all human activities in and around the protected zones, or putting in place a punitive regulatory mechanism, is not feasible for dependent communities with little or no alternative to their traditional livelihoods. Such an approach is sure to lead to conflict and almost as certain to fail as fishermen and communities find ways to subvert a detested regulation. It is a long process to convince traditional resource users to make wholesale changes to their livelihoods and lifestyles but this is the way that leads to controls that the community itself suggests, accepts, and more importantly, adopts. No one action or management measure is going to ensure the long-term sustainability of the Indus delta ecosystem. There is a need for national policy changes to ensure the basic water
Fig. 8. Stakeholder-centric policy and decision-making cycle.
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Please cite this article in press as: Kidwai, S., et al., Practicality of marine protected areas - Can there be solutions for the river Indus delta?, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.016