Projecting scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific

Futuru,

Vol. 27, No. I, PP. 65-79.

1905

Copyright 0 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0016-3287195 $10.00 + 0.00

0016-3287(94)00001-8

PROJECTING SCENARIOS FOR SOUTH-EAST ASIA AND THE SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC R G Coyle and C R McClone

The article describes further work to validate and assessa method of futures projection. The full methodology is shown in the context of a projection of plausible future trends for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific. A number of scenarios are developed and it is shown that the future for that region may be fraught with considerable problems. Finally, the methodology is assessed and suggestions for future work are made.

Many decisions have very long-term consequences and, unless the future circumstances are to be left to chance, it is desirable to have some idea of what the future might hold before making major policy choices. This must be especially true for the decisions made by a government about its foreign policy stance and the associated defence requirements. The difficulty is to produce a range of projections of future possibilities which are reasonably exhaustive, though not too numerous to be confusing, and which have some sort of logical structure by which they may be explained. Rhyne’ suggested a method, field anomaly relaxation (FAR), to address this problem. He suggested that the strength of his approach was that it dealt with a range of aspects of the future rather than with any single one, and that it avoided internal inconsistencies, or anomalies. Further, it produced an audit trail by which the results could be understood, communicated and, if necessary, revised as events unfolded. Rhyne’s ideas were used by few other authors and appeared to have lapsed from use. That was unfortunate as his concept seemed to have considerable promise. Recent work by Coyle, Sutton and Crawshay* therefore attempted to reconstruct the Rhyne methodology from the available sources, using, as a sort of worked example, a FAR projection of trends in Europe. It is emphasized that the purpose was not to produce R C Coyle is Professor of Defence Strategic Analysis at the Royal Military College of Science, Shrivenham, Wiltshire SN6 8LA, UK (Tel: +44 1793 785265; fax: +44 1793 782179). G R M&lone is a Major with the Australian Army. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and have no official standing of any description.

Projecting scenarios: R G Coy/e and G R M&lone

a projection for that problem; the aim was to reconstruct and made by Rhyne for his methodology.3 That research concluded made by Rhyne appeared to be as valid as intuition had suggested that the FAR approach was a viable method of futures projection context used. Some suggestions were made for revisions to reference contains citations of a few other readily available analyses.

evaluate the claims that the proposals they might be, and in the hypothetical the approach. The accounts of FAR

Reconstructing Rhyne’s methodology in an artificial context is not sufficient to enable it to be properly assessed. Accordingly, the present work takes the reconstructed methodology and applies it to a more realistic problem, namely the projection of futures for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific to show how futures projections might be developed as inputs to a regional nation’s defence and foreign policy decision making. It is emphasized that, although the work is as realistic as we can make it, it was not commissioned by any nation and has no official standing.

The FAR approach The FAR approach was fully described in the earlier article by Coyle eta/,4 so only a brief outline is given here. In essence the problem to be studied is described in terms of a ‘field’ of several ‘factors’, such as the degree of military conflict, economic well-being and so forth. Each factor is defined at a number of levels or ‘sectors’ representing differing degrees of the factor in question. The factors and sectors are chosen by studying a series of visualizations of the future drawn from imaginative experts on the region to be studied. Choosing a factor from each sector completely describes a possible field and the combination can be seen as a word in a metalanguage for thinking about the future in the chosen policy context. An array of, say, seven sectors each defined to five factors would generate 5’, or some 78 000 combinations, but these are usually reduced to about 100 when anomalies are eliminated or relaxed. For instance, a level of economic well-being corresponding to a Swiss standard of living being widespread in a region could, one might judge, not coexist with frequent and widesoread small wars, which might be a factor in the military conflict sector. If this was the first relaxation to be made, the number of combinations is reduced to about 75 000.’ The rate of reduction becomes smaller as more relaxations take place. When the 100 or so surviving configurations are examined, more eliminations may take place. Finally, the surviving configurations are developed into time-lines, or scenarios, which represent progressions into the future and, while avoiding logical inconsistencies, still depend on what Rhyne calls a ‘whole-pattern’ field. Finally, the scenarios are transformed from sequences of field configurations into narrative descriptions of future possibilities. If necessary, these can be the inputs to another round of the exercise. Such, in essence, is the approach, as suggested by Rhyne and as confirmed by the earlier research. This article shows these steps in much more detail for the selected problem. Visualizing

the future

for South-east

Asia and the South-west

Pacific region

To visualize the future, a set of six essays and an article by Lee Kuan Yew’were as the input data. The authors were people from different backgrounds

66

used and

Projecting

countries.

A sample essay appears in Appendix

scenarios:

R G Coy/e and G R M&lone

1.

The important point is that these essays are intended to produce the complete range of plausible situations (but not events) that could occur in the future. Whether any or all of the events mentioned in the essays actually occur is irrelevant-it is the identification of those areas that will affect the overall situation that is significant. It is often useful to check the essays against other fictional projections. Barnard’ is a good example of that genre. Friedman and LeBard’ is another, although it does not refer exactly to our chosen region.

Developing

a sector/factor

metalanguage

From the essays, the sectors identified were: trade, economic position, resource availability and ownership, the nature of governments, territorial disputes and conflicts and the level of cooperation throughout the region. To develop the metalanguage, the titles of the sectors were chosen to produce a suitable acronym. This avoids any implication of primacy among sectors if the position of a sector depends only on its contribution to a usable acronym. The final headings were (with the chosen letter for the acronym in bold): Stability of Government, Economic Perceptions, l Military Strength, 0 Cooperation, l Freedom of Trade, l Resources Relationship, and l Territorial Disputes. l l

The resulting acronym is GEMCORT which was readily accepted by the team members. The choice of a word that has no meaning is of no importance; the fact that the team members accepted and used the word is. Again from the essays, the GEMCORT sectors were divided into subsets covering the complete range of each sector. Descriptors were applied for identification purposes, remembering that each factor is an individual, whole element and describes a complete situation. The descriptions and definitions developed in this stage are important and took time to complete. It was important to ensure that the descriptors were apt, that they fitted together properly, and that they contained sufficient detail for complete understanding of the situation that they represented. It was essential that the members of the team fully agreed with the range and nature of the sectors and factors selected and fully understood the descriptors as well. Rhyne emphasizes that total immersion by the team members in the sector/factor descriptions is required. Without such understanding, the subsequent relaxation of anomalies would not have been convincing. Table 7 shows the factor headings. A complete definition of a sample sector and the detailed description of each of its factors is provided in Appendix 2.

Anomaly

relaxation

To relax anomalies in the GEMCORT array, a factor in a given sector is selected. It is then compared against all other factors in all other sectors and all implausible pairs

67

Projecting

scenarios:

R G Coy/e and G R M&lone

TABLE 1.THE GEMCORT SECTOR AND FACTOR HEADINGS Stability of government 1. Stable, enduring. 2. Minority governments. 3. Changing governments. 4. Dictatorships and coups. 5. Mixed situations (status quo 1993).

Freedom of trade 1. Open and free trade. 2. Quota/tariff system. 3. Favoured nation status. 4. Highly controlled. 5. Protectionism.

Economic perceptions 1. Prospering economies. 2. Patchy progress. 3. Widening disparities. 4. General poverty.

Resources relationship 1. Unrestricted availability. 2. Licensed access. 3. Ownership contested. 4. Wilful violations. 5. Defiant incursions. 6. Acrimonious protection.

Military strength 1. Considerable disparities. 2. Broad equivalence. 3. Regional powers. 4. Nuclear powers.

Territorial disputes 1. Contained border clashes. 2. Territorial disputes and incursions. 3. Peace making in place. 4. Stable content governments. 5. Full-scale conflicts.

Cooperation 1. Low cooperation. 2. Strong pacts. 3. Friendliness and trust. 4. Independent nations. 5. Distrusting divergent. 6. Moderate mixing.

are discarded, but only if the team (the authors and a colleague who assisted with the relaxation) were unanimous in their judgment of implausibility. If extended discussion occurred, the pair was treated as possibly consistent and thus not eliminated. Some pairs were revisited at the end of the session and reconsidered to ensure that discipline was maintained throughout the process. The results of this filtering process are shown in Table 2. A ‘Y’ indicates a plausible pair and ‘N’ indicates an inconsistent pair. During this step, the original factor descriptions were reviewed a number of times to ensure full understanding was held by all the team members. Occasionally this resulted in refining, though not altering the meaning of, the descriptor. The surviving configurations were calculated using software developed by the first author for FAR applications. A total of 117 configurations for the original 72 000 survived the relaxation process. They are listed in Tab/e 3. The surviving configurations were now reviewed and a further six were eliminated which were felt not to be consistent when taken as a whole. For example, configuration 45 represents a very unstable world in which military conflict is limited merely to controlled border clashes. Although Tl is consistent with any other member of the configuration, we felt it was inconsistent with all of them, so configuration 45 was discarded.

68

Projecting

TABLE 2. THE GEMCORT

scenarios:

R G Coy/e

and G R McClone

MATRIX OF PAIRS

Matrix Of

pairs

El

E2

E3

E4 Ml

M2 M3 M4 Cl

C2 C3 C4 CS C6 01

Gl

YNNNNYYYYYYYYYYYYYNYYYNNNNNNYN

G2

NNYYYNNYYNNNYNNNYYNNYYYYNYYYNN

G3

NNYYYNNYYNNYYNNNNYYNYYYYNYYYNN

G4

NNYYYYNYYNNNYNNNNYYNNNYYYYYYNY

G5

YYNNYNYYYYYYYYYYYNNNYYYYNYYYNY

El

YYYYNNYNNYYYNNNYYNNNNNNNYN

E2

YNNYYYNYNYNYYNNNYYYNNYYYNN

E3

YNYYYYNYYNNNYYYNYYYYYYYYNY

E4

YNNNYNNYYNNNNYYNYYYNNYYYNN

02

Ml

YNYYYYNNYYYNYYYYYYYYNY

M2

NYYYNYYYYNNYYYNNNYNNYN

M3

YYNNYNNNYYYNYYNNNYNNYN

M4

YYNNYNNNYYYNYYNNYNYYNY

03

04

05

Rl

Cl

NNNYYNNNYYYYYYNY

c2

NNYYNNYYNNNYNYYN

c3

YYNNNYYNNNNYNNYN

c4

NNNYYYYNNNYNNNYN

c5

NNNYYNNNYYYYYYNY

C6

NYYNNYYYNNNYYNYN

R2

R3

R4

01

YNNNNNNNNYN

02

YYNNNNYNNYN

03

YYYNNNYYNYN

04

NNNYYNYYYNY

05

NNNYYYYYYNY

R5

R6

Tl

T2

T3

T4

T5

Rl

N

N

N

Y

N

R2

Y

Y

N

Y

N

R3

NNNYN

Fi4

YYYNN

R5

Y

Y

NY

R6

NYYNY

The scenarios

that were

deleted

Y

are listed at Table 4.

Time-line construction The fourth step of the cycle is the generation of time-lines. We felt that 111 configurations were too many to work with constructively; accordingly, configurations which we judged to be closely similar were grouped into clusters. We aimed to force as few configurations as possible into clusters, while still achieving a manageable number of clusters. The difference between configurations in a cluster was to be no greater than one level on no more than three factors. The difference was based on the ‘feel’ of the scenarios and the condition that only very like scenarios should be grouped. A total of 19 clusters were formed as shown in Tab/e 5. Rhyne does not recommend this clustering approach but, instead, prefers to work with all the survivors, simply discarding those which cannot be reached when the time-lines are generated. It is hard to say which is the better approach, but we feel that ours has the merit of simplicity and tractability. Each cluster was identified by its letter and by a short, even colloquial, title reflecting the important idea of that cluster, for example, ‘Poverty-struck dictator rattling the cage’. This is not intended to mean that there is only one dictator in the region, nor does it mean that all countries in the region are dictatorships. It does imply a state of affairs in which dictatorships are common in the region, that by and

Projecting scenarios: R C Coy/e and G R M&lone

TABLE 3. SURVIVING

No Configuration

GEMCORT

CONFIGURATIONS

No Configuration

No Configuration

1 GlElM2C301RlT4

40 G3E3Ml C504R5T2

79 G4E3Ml C504R4T3

2 Gl El M2C302RlT4

41 G3E3Ml C504R5T3

80 G4E3Ml C504R5Tl

3 Gl El M2C302R2T4

42 G3E3Ml C505R4Tl

81 G4E3Ml C504R5T2

4 Gl El M2C602RlT4

43 G3E3MlC505R4T2

82 G4E3Ml C504R5T3

5 Gl El M2C602R2T4

44 G3E3Ml C505R4T3

83 G4E3Ml C504R5T5

6 G2E3MlC104R4Tl

45 G3E3MlC505R5Tl

84 G4E3MlC505R4Tl

7 G2E3MlC104R4T2

46 G3E3MlC505R5T2

85 G4E3Ml C505R4T2

8 G2E3Ml Cl 04R4T3

47 G3E3MlC505R5T3

86 G4E3Ml C505R4T3

9 G2E3Ml Cl 04R5Tl

48 G3E4MlC104R4Tl

87 G4E3MlC505R5Tl

10 G2E3MlC104R5T2

49 G3E4Ml Cl 04R4T2

88 G4E3Ml C505R5T2

11 G2E3Ml Cl 04R5T3

50 G3E4MlC104R4T3

89 G4E3Ml C505R5T3

12 G2E3Ml C504R4Tl

51 G3E4MlC105R4Tl

90 G4E3Ml C505R5T5

13 G2E3Ml C504R4T2

52 G3E4MlC

91 G4E3MlC505R6T2

14 G2E3Ml C504R4T3

53 G3E4MlC105R4T3

92 G4E3Ml C505R6T3

15 G2E3Ml C504R5Tl

54 G3E4Ml C504R4Tl

93 G4E3Ml C505R6T5

16 G2E3Ml C504R5T2

55 G3E4Ml C504R4T2

94 G4E3MlC105R6T2

17 G2E3Ml C504R5T3

56 G3E4Ml C504R4T3

95 G4E3Ml Cl 05R6T3

18 G2E4Ml Cl 04R4Tl

57 G3E4MlC505R4Tl

96 G4E3Ml Cl 05R6T5 97 G4E3M4C505R6T2

05R4T2

19 G2E4Ml Cl 04R4T2

58 G3E4MlC505R4T2

20 G2E4Ml Cl 04R4T3

59 G3E4MlC505R4T3

98 G4E3M4C505R6T3

21 G2E4Ml C504R4Tl

60 G4E3MlC104R4Tl

99 G4E3M4C505R6T5

22 G2E4Ml C504R4T2

61 G4E3MlC104R4T2

100 G4E4Ml Cl 04R4Tl

23 G2E4Ml C504R4T3

62 G4E3MlC104R4T3

101 G4E4MlC104R4T2

24 G3E3Ml Cl 04R4Tl

63 G4E3MlC104R5Tl

102 G4E4Ml Cl 04R4T3

25 G3E3Ml Cl 04R4T2

64 G4E3MlC104R5T2

103 G4E4Ml Cl 05R4Tl

26 G3E3Ml Cl 04R4T3

65 G4E3MlC104R5T3

104 G4E4Ml Cl 05R4T2

27 G3E3Ml Cl 04R5Tl

66 G4E3MlC104R5T5

105 G4E4Ml Cl 05R4T3

28 G3E3Ml Cl 04R5T2

67 G4E3MlC105R4Tl

106 G4E4Ml Cl 05R6T2

29 G3E3Ml Cl 04R5T3

68 G4E3MlC105R4T2

107 G4E4Ml Cl 05R6T3

30 G3E3Ml Cl 05R4Tl

69 G4E3MlC105R4T3

108 G4E4Ml C504R4Tl

31 G3E3Ml Cl 05R4T2

70 G4E3MlC105R5Tl

109 G4E4Ml C504R4T2

32 G3E3Ml Cl 05R4T3

71 G4E3MlC105R5T2

110 G4E4Ml C504R4T3

33 G3E3Ml Cl 05R5Tl

72 G4E3MlC105R5T3

111 G4E4Ml C505R4Tl

34 G3E3Ml Cl 05R5T2

73 G4E3MlC105R5T5

112 G4E4Ml C505R4T2

35 G3E3Ml Cl 05R5T3

74 G4E3MlC105R6T2

113 G4E4Ml C505R4T3

36 G3E3Ml C504R4Tl

75 G4E3MlC105R6T3

114 G4E4Ml C505R6T2

37 G3E3Ml C504R4T2

76 G4E3MlC105R6T5

115 G4E4Ml C505R6T3

38 G3E3Ml C504R4T3

77 G4E3Ml C504R4Tl

116 G5E2Ml C603R2Tl

39 G3E3Ml C504R5Tl

78 G4E3Ml C504R4T2

117 G5E2Ml C603R2T2

large they are not prosperous, and that they are not too happy about it. It was felt that these summary descriptions were important for aiding the movement of the clusters in their time-lines at the subsequent stage. The clusters were written on to sheets of Post-itT” notepaper with the identifying letter, the metalanguage description and the short heading. The whole scenario configuration descriptions and the colloquial headings of the clusters are in Table 6.

70

Projecting scenario>: R G Coy/e and G R McGlone

TABLE 4. DELETED GEMCORT WHOLE SCENARIO CONFIGURATIONS Configuration no

Deleted configuration

45

G3

E3

Ml

C5

05

R5

Tl

57

G3

E4

Ml

C5

05

R4

Tl

70

G4

E3

Ml

Cl

05

R5

Tl

84

G4

E3

Ml

C5

05

R4

Tl

87

G4

E3

Ml

C5

05

R5

Tl

111

G4

E4

Ml

C5

05

R4

Tl

The Faustian Tree9 The method used to produce time-lines was for the team members to sit at a table with a very large piece of paper. Initially, the Post-itTM stickers were scattered more or less at random but, as we worked, and following Rhyne’s precept of total immersion in the metalanguage, the clusters were arranged into the order in which the authors considered that states of affairs could group and develop. At this stage, the passage of time within scenarios was ignored and only the plausibility of the sequencing was considered. Several interesting points arose during this stage. The first was that throughout the FAR literature there appears to be only a forward flow of configurations and no provision for any one to be repeated, or to occur in several different time-lines or even to reappear in any one time-line. The second was the lack of a capability for a time-line to collapse (ie reverse) to a previous point and then detour along another route. In addition, it was considered by the team that the gap between cluster B and clusters A and C was too large. Two new clusters were introduced to alleviate this

TABLE 5. GEMCORT

Cluster

WHOLE SCENARIO

CONFIGURATION

CLUSTERS

Configurations

A B

1, 2, 3, 4, 5

C

6, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 18, 19

116, 117

D

8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 21, 22, 23

E

24, 25, 27, 28, 30, 31, 33, 34

F

26. 29, 32, 35

G

36, 37, 42, 43

H

38, 39, 40, 41) 44, 46, 47

I

48, 49, 51, 52, 54

J

50, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59

K

60, 61, 63, 64, 67, 68

L

62, 65, 69, 71, 72, 74, 75, 79, 82, 86, 89, 92

M

66, 73, 76, 83, 90, 93

N

77, 78, 80, 81, 85, 88, 91

0

94, 95, 97, 98

P

96, 99

Q

100, 101, 103, 104, 106, 108

R S

102,105,107,109 110, 112,113,

114, 115

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Projecting scenarios: R G Coy/e and G R M&/one

TABLE 6. GEMCORT CLUSTER HEADINGS AND DESCRIPTIONS Cluster

Configuration

Colloquial heading

A B C D E F G H J K L

Gl El M2C3/602R1/2T4 G5E2Ml C603R2T1/2 G2E3MlC1/504R4/5T1/2 G2E3MlC1/504R4/5T3 G3E3MlC104/5R4/5T1/2 G3E3Ml Cl 04R5T3 G3E3Ml C504/5R4T1/2 G3E3MlC104R4T3 G3E4Ml Cl 04R4T1/2 G3E4Ml C504/5R4T2/3 G4E3Ml Cl 04/5R4/5Tl I2 G4E3M4C1/505R5/6T2/3

M N 0 P

G4E314Ml C1/504/5R5/6T5 G4E3Ml C504/5R4/5T2 G4E3M4C105R5/6T2/3 G4E3M4Cl l505R5T5

Strong, stable, friendly, growing. Stable. Today. Shifting, increasing disparities, not supporting, incursions. Nations need separating. Rattling the cage. Pushing the issue and getting nasty. Open nastiness. Requires powerful separator. Rattling the cage but poverty struck. Poverty struck but getting desperate and dangerous. Dictator rattling the cage. Dictator getting nasty, close to war and requiring separation. War. Dictator not as close to war. Power projector keeping the peace. Power projector is in the war as he is unable to keep the peace. Dictator, poverty struck, rattling the cage but closed out and unable to affect the region’s activities. Dictator, poverty struck, rattled the cage, peace enforced and closed out. Amalgamated with R.

a R S

G4E4Ml C504/5R4/6T1/2/3

problem: B+ and B-. These clusters represented, as their suffixes indicate, improvement or degradation respectively of cluster B circumstances. This was considered acceptable and would represent the normal cyclical nature of many of the sector environments. These two new clusters improved the flow of the scenarios. Interestingly, strong stable scenarios tended not to generate a multitude of alternative paths but only one or possibly two variations. Scenarios which tended to be unstable generated several alternate paths. Having obtained what we felt were plausible sequences of clusters, time was introduced. Only the starting-point (1993) was defined; the end-point would result from the sequencing. This activity raised the further point of the determination of how long a state would or would not last. Obviously some clusters represent transient conditions whereas others would have a more enduring nature. These points all affected the resulting Faustian Tree. Where a cluster appeared several times, a new copy of that scenario was introduced to the board. Some of the surviving groups were in fact very similar and this led to some being merged at this stage. The result of this activity is referred to as a Faustian Tree and is at Figure 1. The tree prompted a thought-provoking discussion among the team members regarding the solution presented and the ease with which the tree was generated; the exercise having taken one long afternoon. The tree was given a large mark of confidence by the team members who felt that this solution indicated that the methodology did in fact work.

72

Projecting

scenarios.

R G Coy/e and G R Mc-Glone

2011

2009

2007

? B-

2005

2003

?

A

M

? B

B-

2001

0

N

Ll

1999

,i

B+ /

-Q 1997

1995

1993

Figure 1.

The Faustian Tree

The tree provokes some serious thoughts. Bearing in mind that cluster M represents regional war, and that R and Q are states of hostility, poverty and dictatorship, then a move from B to C within the next few years might be the first step on a slippery slope from which recovery might be very difficult and a further move to E would lead, at best, to B- and, at worst, to a very unpleasant future. That might suggest that governments in the region should consider very carefully whether any actions they are imminently contemplating might stimulate or inhibit that move. This can be seen more clearly by listing, in Table 7, all the scenarios which appear in Figure 1. Each of these should be written out as a narrative account. That for scenario V appears in Appendix 3. It is, of course, not suggested that these events will happen. The theme of FAR is that, when one starts by considering aspects which well informed commentators see as applicable to the region and then eliminates what appear to be logical inconsistencies, one can generate time-lines of behaviour which appear to be plausible. Assessment

of FAR

This article is the second stage in a research programme to assess whether or not FAR

Projecting

scenarios:

R G Coy/e and G R McGlone

TABLE 7. FAUSTIAN TREE PATHS AND IDENTIFIERS Identifier

Scenario sequence

I II Ill IV V VI VII VIII IX

B+ B-+ B+ ?/B+ B+C+O+B++A B-+C+I+J+D+O-+B B+C+E+F+G+H+O-+BB-+C+E+F+G+H-+(P)+M B+C+E+K+L+P+M B+C-+E+K+N-+BB+C+E+K+Fl B+C-+E-+K+Q

is a viable and credible method for scenario generation. The first paper by Coyle eta/” sought to reconstruct Rhyne’s methodology from the available literature to test the claims he had made for it. For example, he had asserted that a sector/factor array and the associated metalanguage could be constructed, that anomalies could confidently be eliminated and that the end-result was a manageable number of scenarios. It was concluded that all those claims were substantiated but, as the case analysed was rather artificial we, as sceptical researchers, remained to be entirely convinced. The present work has benefited from numerous additional papers, mainly internal memos from his company and therefore not cited here, which Dr Rhyne was kind enough to supply, although he is in no way responsible for the use we made of his work. It also takes what we believe to be a much more realistic case. We conclude that his claims are supported and that FAR is a valuable and tractable method of generating time-lines of possible future evolution. Since it generates several equally plausible time-lines it is a considerable advance on the single scenario narrative method, as exemplified by Friedman and LeBard.” FAR is entirely subjective which, to some, may appear to be a grave disadvantage. We do not fully concur with that view. The total immersion in the problem, which Rhyne advocates, seems to us to work perfectly in that one starts to acquire a ‘feel’ for the problem by working with the acronymic configurations. The point that the configurations are whole pattern descriptions is a powerful characteristic as one is dealing with the problem as a whole and not some restricted aspect such as economics or demography. Indeed, we were surprised to find that the whole exercise was much less time-consuming than Rhyne’s work suggested, but that may have been because we were not working with real decision makers. There may well be scope for further improvement to the methodology, although one would have to be careful not to push judgment to an artificial extent. There may, nonetheless, be scope for consideration of the rates at which change between clusters might take place over time. It would probably be valuable to allow for degrees of confidence in relaxing anomalies as a field configuration’s plausibility might be weakened considerably if two or three of its pairs were no more than fairly plausible. In summary, however, this research has convinced us that the method works rather well as it stands, but we intend to continue with its development.

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Projecting

Appendix

scenarios:

R G Coy/e

and G R M&lone

1

This Appendix reproduces one of the essays used as input to the FAR analysis. The essay should not be viewed as being ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ as a view of the future. It simply gives one person’s informed view of factors likely to be important in the future and, from the collection of those factors, the FAR approach produces the sector/factor matrix.

‘A future thought of Australia in the region China has become the dominant economic power in the region. Shanghai, Guanangzhou and Hong Kong are three of the most important economic areas in the region and are the financial centres of the Pacific Rim. South Korea, Japan and Indonesia have helped to pour large amounts of foreign investment into South China. Rapid industrial and infrastructure growth have developed the region into an industrialized zone with a high standard of living which is at odds with the rest of the country. The leaders in Beijing have steadily modernized the country. The right to free speech and the government’s record on human rights, while not yet that expected of a Western nation, have improved following close scrutiny by the United Nations. The maturity of the government to foreign criticism is good following their successful 2008 Olympic Games bid. Japan is still suspicious of its neighbour but has maintained close trade and investment links with China. Japan did suffer from a period of long economic isolation in the 1990s following its failure to lift its restrictive trade barriers and only became a major force in the region after 2005. Economic growth has been steady with continued growth in technology-based industries. Social reform in the country has been slow with society still slow to accept the talents of women. This is true of all countries in the region and has been a major factor in the ‘cold’ relations with the US President, who has been a woman since 1998. The economies of Vietnam, Cambodia, South Korea and Indonesia have all continued with moderate growth since the 1990s. Australia has developed strong links with the region. Politicians and business leaders have all shown a better understanding of Asian culture and religion. This is due in part to a new, more educated tolerant generation. Multiculturalism has been a success and aggressive marketing of the country’s special ties with the region has seen Darwin develop into the international springboard into the area. Political stability of the region has been achieved through the efforts of the United Nations. The UN Secretary General, Gareth Evans, has been a popular and successful leader. His efforts to negotiate in the Korean conflict in 1998 over nuclear arms established credibility for the UN following the debacles in former Yugoslavia and Somalia. His plan to finance UN activities from international airline ticket subsidies resolved its previous financial difficulties and helped maintain a permanent military force to enforce peace making and law enforcement. Predictions

for 20 70

The South-east Asian region has continued to grow economically, attracting large amounts of foreign investment. Development loans from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank allow rapid infrastructure growth.

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Projecting scenarios: R G Coyle and C R M&lone

Economic stability has enhanced political stability. Political stability has been accompanied by a trend towards democratic reform. A need for international acceptance has led to open and accountable government. Political leaders fight hard to combat local corruption and encourage business leaders to enter the ‘global marketplace’. Financial marketplaces are liberalized, economies are deregulated and foreign investment is encouraged. Per capita income has risen and the populace have enjoyed an increase in the standard of living; however, many still live in poverty. An improved level of state education and the freedom to express opinion forces pressure on governments to look at domestic problems. This further enhances regional stability. Despite the efforts of many foreign affairs ministers, links between countries remain loose. No formal arrangements have been made to link economies into trade blocs. The old problems of distinct language, religion and culture still breed inherent distrust. The concept of an ‘Asian Economic Community’ has been dismissed. The ease and low cost of international travel allow greater understanding of the countries’ cultures. Media coverage, especially since the advent of low-cost satellite television, is mature and comprehensive. This promotes greater understanding between governments and forges closer business ties. Military cooperation between countries is good. Joint exercises are held on a regular basis and military exchange postings are a fundamental part of the goodwill between nations. Military expenditure and investment by the South-east Asian countries has remained high as compared to the West.’

Appendix

2

The sector and factor definitions and descriptions To produce a full sector/factor matrix This Appendix provides, for illustration,

Stability

the sectors and factors are defined in prose. the definitions for ‘Stability of Government’.

of government

This sector covers the stability of government and government processes throughout the region. It is concerned with the nature of the political systems, the government styles and the power and influence they possess for the region. The main element is the stability of the main decision-making system and its ability to provide enduring influence on the elements of the nation. The elements that are of concern are the economic capabilities, the effect the government has on foreign relations, its military control (not capability), their domestic policies for sustaining the nation’s population and trade capability. l

l

76

GI: Stable, enduring. The conditions reflected by this factor are a domestic political stability where the governing parties remain in power for long periods. Their policies are well documented and understood. There are occasional minor variations in policy, but long-term planning is common and, because confidence is held in the government, investment and development can occur. GZ: Minority governments. This factor represents the reduced stability provided by government existing with a minority of seats or powers. These governments are forced to rely on coalitions with other minor parties. This often results in a loss of

Projecting

scenarios:

R G Coy/e and G R McClone

control over certain elements of policy making with frequent policy shifts resulting through shifting alliances and pressure being brought to bear to achieve political l

l

l

aims. G3: Changinggovernments. This factor is concerned with the problems that occur with continually changing governments with short lifespans. Policies are prevented from being properly established and government departments become difficult to control. Corruption begins to become a problem and stability of government is reduced. Governments lose face domestically with scandals and internationally with a loss of confidence. G4: Dictatorships and coups. This factor is marked by the widespread existence of dictatorships, juntas and frequent coups d’ktat which promote instability in government. The factors that become dominant are the lack of confidence which can placed in government decisions, the lack of durability in government promises and proposals. Development and investment confidence is usually very low as there are no guarantees for future ownership and control of assets. GS: Mixed situations SQ 7993. This factor represents the situation in 1993. The region has a variety of government types. There are variations in the nature of governments continually in the region. However, there is an overall stability which is the result of the stability of the more dominant nations.

Appendix 3 The economic situation is the main driving factor at the early stages of the 1990s. The world continues to cycle through recovery from, and relapse into, recession. The response was slow and sluggish as no one shared much confidence in the future.

1993: G5 E2 M 1 C6 03 R2 Tl/2 1995: G2 E3 MI Cl/5 04 R4/5 TlR Most nations, frightened of a relapse, shied away from major commitments. This instability in economic health was reflected in shifting attitudes towards and between governments. Some nations, however, endured this period better than others (eg Singapore and Japan) and continued to enjoy dramatic economic and nationalistic growth. This led to increasing disparities between nations of the regions, decreasing the trust and friendliness. This was not helped by the dwindling supply of resources for some nations while others had to rely on access rights from other nations to obtain their produce. As the recession had bitten deeper than expected, nations became increasingly protectionist in their trade and their resource ownership which further fuelled the friction. The economic outlook was dim. The situation continued to deteriorate through 1995 and, by 1996, the less wealthy nations were becoming more vocal and agitated about their situation. 1995: 1996:

G2 E3 Ml G2 E3 Ml

Cl/5 Cl

04 R4/5 Tl/2 04/5

R4/5 Tl/2

The failure of the Uruguay round of the GATT process only deepened the recession and distrust among the nations. Agreement among the nations for continuing to attempt to form a trading partnership provided some hope but the failure to get the nations of the region to agree to APEC or amalgamate with NAFTA resulted in further protectionism. Nations rapidly became anxious about their futures and agitation and

Projecting

scenarios:

R G Coy/e and G R McGlone

frustration at the lack of economic performance began to emerge. Nations began to openly dispute territories and resources. Governments became destabilized and frequent elections and changes in government rapidly became the norm. 1996: 1998:

G2 E3 Ml

G3 E3 Ml

Cl 04/5 R4/5 Tl/2 Cl 04 R5 T3

With this came the willingness by nations to push their demands and increase their activities in disputed areas and over disputed resources. Nations refused to align themselves and regional agreements could not be reached. The UN began to intervene and only through military and subsequent economic action was peace maintained throughout the region. The region was marked by feelings of instability and insecurity. The disparities in military forces and capabilities between nations continued to grow and nations increasingly built up military forces to solve their problems. The peace brought about by intervention 1998: G3 E3 Ml 2000: G3 E3 Ml

lasted a short time.

Cl 04 R5 T3 Cl 04/5 R4 Tl/2

Despite the measures by the UN to ensure greater access for all nations to the resources of the region, nations continued to dispute territories and resources and border clashes and territorial disputes remained prevalent. The UN was forced to reduce its commitment to the region due to continuing global problems. Only the worst regional cases continued to receive peace-making attention. The region stabilized a little although friction and hostility pervaded the region. The final year of the millennium was unstable and insecure. The new century did not start successfully. The success of the Olympic Games in Sydney in 2000 did not reap the benefits for the region that the other nations hoped for. 2000:

G3 E3 Ml 2002: G3 E3 Ml

Cl 04/5 R4 Tl/2 Cl 04 R4 T3

China still felt cheated by the loss of the Games for both 2000 and 2004 and perceived this as a loss of face. This surfaced in a continuing distrust in the region and China’s willingness to support her allies with arms. This led to increasing levels of border tensions and incursions in the region. The period was one of simmering dispute. NAFTA, APEC and GATT were outdated and old FSU-type alliances were being sought for mutual support (although none eventuated). Eventually the USA, worried about its regional interests, intervened with UN approval to enforce peace. The US intervention kept the region in check-just. The situation worsened by continuing economic ill-health. Nations became more desperate in their attempts to use force to overcome their problems. The USA’s presence had limited effect and border incursions quickly escalated into battles and civil wars. 2002:

G3 E3 Ml Cl 04 R4 T3 2003: G4 E3 M4 Cl/5 05 R5 T5 Government stability decreased further and soon military juntas, puppet regimes, dictators and coups d’6tat were commonplace. China felt the need to stand by its allies and the relationship between the USA and China became increasingly

78

Projecting

scenarioc:

strained. This eventually resulted in an inability by effectively in the region and led to worsening conflicts nations were drawn into the conflicts.

R G Coy/e and G R M&lone

both nations to intervene throughout the region. All

The collapse into major conflict and war eventuated quickly. Nations dragged other nations in to assist in their battles. The USA and China were unable to prevent further escalation. 2003: C4 E3 M4 Cl/5 05 R5 T5 2005 : G4 E3/4 M 1 Cl/5 04/5 R5/6 T5 As the USA had found in Vietnam in the 1960s and 197Os, jungle warfare and fighting in South-east Asia was difficult and a dangerous undertaking. The many islands and archipelagos throughout the South-east Asia and South-western Pacific region, combined with the tyranny of vast distance, made this an unpalatable war.

Notes and references 1.

2. 3

4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

R Rhyne, ‘Whole pattern futures projection using field anomaly relaxation’, Technologic-a/ Forecasting and Social Change, 19, 1981, pages 331-360. Dr Rhyne published a large number of other papers, mainly in the form of internal working papers from his consulting company. R G Coyle, L Sutton and R C Crawshay, ‘Futures assessment by field anomaly relaxation: a review and appraisal’, Futures, 26(l), January 1994. That work was done without the benefit of consultation with Dr Rhyne. The authors are delighted to state that, through a chain of coinciclences, they have recently established contact and correspondence with him. Dr Rhyne is, however, in no way responsible for the views expressed here. Coyle et al, op tit, reference 2. Each pair of sectors comprises 25 combinations of pairs. Eliminating 1 leaves 24*5” or 75 000. K Y Lee, ‘News from a time capsule’, I.50 Economist Years, d supplement to The konomict. 11 September 1993. T Barnard, South Africa, 1994-2004, A Popular History (Cape Town, Southern Book Publl\hers, 19911. G Friedman and M LeBard, The Coming War With lapan (New York, St Martins Press, 199 I J. Rhyne suggested this term to imply that we may find to our cost, as did Faust, that the world cloe~ not always unfold as we would wish. Coyle et al, op tit, reference 2. Friedman and LeBard, op tit, reference 8.