Prospective studies in France: Their possible usefulness for international purposes

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AND SOCIAL CHANGE 5,2&i-279

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Prospective Studies in France: Their Possible Usefulness for International Purposes BERTRAND CHATEL and HUGUES DE JOUVENEL

1. Introduction Planning in France resulted from the need to reconstruct the country after World War II and to plan its economic and social development during forthcoming five-year periods. Gradually, the concept of “Prospective” and long-range studies emerged and contributed to inspire many studies undertaken for the analysis and forecasting of a number of sectors.’ As experiences have now accumulated for almost fifteen years in diverse fields, it seems timely to review the work performed so far and evaluate the methods utilized as well as the results obtained. The question which also arises is whether these experiences, undertaken within a national framework, can contribute to the elaboration of a methodology which could be used for prospective studies on a regional or international basis. For many years the United Nations has been concerned with studies in the field of economic projection, with a view to assess the economic and social progress which can be anticipated for the developing countries. In fact, the gap between the developing and the developed countries has been steadily increasing in terms of technological knowledge and Gross National Product per capita, quite apart from any consideration related to the quality of life and to the environment. Programs currently identified in the United Nations system and actions recommended to stimulate progress in the Third World are prepared on a ten-year basis: For example, the Second UN Development Decade covers the period 1971-1980. It would be worth examining if these programs should not be based on prospective studies covering a longer term period. These international prospective studies would be derived either from national evaluations or from objectives defined at a global level. Recommendations for national and international programs could be deduced from these studies and addressed to Governments of developed and developing countries.

B. CHATEL is currently Chief, Science Applications Section, Office for Science and Technology, United Nations, N. Y. 10017. H. DE JOUVENEL is with the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), Room U-200A, United Nations Plaza, New York, N. Y. 10017. This paper has been inspired, partly, by the discussions engaged during two meetings held in Paris on June 24, 1971 and November 21, 1972 [ 261. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessary reflect those of the United Nations. ’ Editor’s Nore: The authors distinguish the word “Prospective” from “Forecasting”. In France this word was not known 15 years ago and is now widely used. In English the words “to prospect” and “prospecting” are in common usage and partially suggest the authors’ connotation. The Oxford English Dictionary does define “prospective” as “characterized by looking forward into the future” and “operative with regard to the future”. 0 American

Elseviex Publishing

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Exploratory conversations were held in Paris on 24 June 1971, on an informal basis between French decision makers responsible for sponsoring or undertaking prospective studies and representatives of the United Nations, [26] with a view to: (a) review the prospective studies undertaken in France during the recent years and recall the methodologies developed; (b) present the main needs for international prospective studies; and (c) evaluate whether experiences in prospective on a national basis may be of assistance to the elaboration of regional or international research programs aiming at assessing potential futures. We will try to present in this paper the main characteristics of French prospective with special attention to the need for international and multidisciplinary studies and the possible role for the United Nations. 1. The French Concept of Prospective

Economic planning was established in France as far back as 1946 under the direction of M. Jean Monnet, and prospective (future oriented approach) was born about 10 to 15 years later through two pioneer teams; the “Centre International de Prospective”, created in 1957 by Gaston Berger[l] , and the “International Committee Futuribles” founded in 1960 and animated by Bertrand de Jouvenel[2]. A strong impulse was then given to prospective and long range-studies by Pierre Masse, at that time High Commissioner for the French office of planning, through his recommendation, in 1963-64, to establish a group of “Reflections on 198.5”. This committee aimed at “studying in the light of future-bearing facts, all that might be useful to know of the French Nation in 1985, in order to enlighten the orientations of the fifth plan”[3]. The Commissioner saw in this the beginning of a fruitful collaboration between planning and forecasting. The planner’s work consists rather of the identification of tools than of the choice of objectives; while the forecaster is asked to draw the prospectives which are used by the former as background information for his work and to show the directions which might be desirable, useful or, detrimental [4] . BASIC PRINCIPLES This definition of the prospective work strictly matched with the approach of both G. Berger and B. de Jouvenel, who invite us not to consider anymore the future as something already decided upon and gradually coming into sight, but as something to do [S 1. This idea is founded on two bases: The first is derived from a reflection on the difference in nature between past and future: “With regard to the past, man can exert his will only in vain; his liberty is void, his power nonexistent (...); the past is the domain of facts over ‘which I have no power, it is also the domain of knowable facts (...) of recorded, attested, verifiable facta”. On the other hand “for man in his role as an active agent the future is a field of liberty and power, but for man in his role as a cognizant being, the future is a field of uncertainty” [6] The second element which has stimulated the definition and progress of prospective is the result of the economic, social, and political events that have marked the first half of this century and destroyed the blind confidence in the principle “laissez faire; laissez passer”. An awareness grew of the long-range consequences of decisions often taken to

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cope with immediate issues, and a new eagerness arose aiming at monitoring progress instead of suffering from its rapid course. The old concept that nature is somewhat immutable and permanent was replaced by the notion that nature is being transformed by man. Therefore, the decision-making processes, which were traditionally based on precedent, analogy, or extrapolation (retrospective methods), became partly inadequate and new capacities had to be developed, conceived anew, and reinstated as part of our intellectual habits. This led to reflections on the long-range impact of choices and actions and to the concept of a continuously renewed and regenerated approach to the future (“prospective research”)’ . Some studies merely aim at giving an advanced warning of some likely developments and thus increase the awareness of people. A number of studies of that kind have been a l’Am6nagement du published in many countries: in France, the “Delegation Territoire et a 1’Action Regionale” (DATAR) has given a good example of such warning studies in its publication “a picture of France in the year 2000”. This report, eloquently subtitled “scenario of the unacceptable” aims at giving a bold outline of what France could be in the year 2000, according to the heaviest trends[S] . One of the main objectives in this type of study is to stimulate decisions and demonstrate the need for further studies to cope with the enlightened problems. Utopian studies, through a very different approach, may also be useful for stimulating imaginative solutions, widening our understanding of the future, and leading us to address ourselves to the future. AN ACTION-ORIENTED

DISCIPLINE

However, these studies must not delude us: “prospective does not pretend to spare us the responsability of choices (...), it outlines several possible worlds in broad strokes, among which only one will be brought into existence. It does not tend to eliminate judgment, but to enlighten our judgment”[9]. It implies our faith in three basic optimistic assumptions: (1) The future is not pre-determined but is a domain of freedom, still open to a great variety of possibilities. (2) We can exert power to intervene and continue to do so, in the belief that the future will depend, in large part, on what we will do to monitor the trends and transform dreams into realities. We have to put prospective at the service of action to justify our concepts. (3) The third assumption is that knowledge is useful to illuminate our objectives and enable us to assess between the good and bad trends those which will lead to the desired goals. The word “Futuribles” (derived from “Futures” and the Latin terminal “ible”) has been chosen to focus precisely on the diversity of the possible futures which are likely to occur and to reject the idea of a predetermined future. These futures are obviously not left to our decision; “on the contrary, they have to be constructed by pro-ference: the action by which the imagination derives possible futures out of present conditions, which are known more or less well. The intellectual construction of a likely future is a work of art (...) in this “composition” of the mind, we should make use of all relevant causal 1 Close to the prospective concept is Hasan Ozbelchan’s concept of “Futures Creative Planning”.

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relations that we can find; their respective roles and connections with one another will depend on a hypothetical model, and their “triggering” will depend on intervening facts which have to be presupposed”.[lO] Our liberty is not complete, as, for each period, several alternative futures can happen. Some latitude remains in the strategy of action, limited, however, by inertia and constraints. Therefore, prospective is supported by two factors: (a) the desire for blending the course of events in such a way that the probable will be brought closer to the desirable; and (b) the need for adapting one’s own strategy to the strategies of others. This necessity is two-fold. “Everyone is mastering a parcel of power that enables him to make some plans of his own; but he must also forecast the movement exerted on the whole system by the others’ steps, i.e., the sum of all the others’ actions”[lO]. Prospective studies enable us, “to ride the wave instead of suffering its impact” and to find out “what corrective or improving actions are apt to generate what desirable alterations. . .” [ Ill. This problem is of particular concern to corporations and to decisions makers in general who have to cope with continuously moving situations and accelerated changes . . . Therefore, discussions on philosophical aspects have shifted to discussions on methodology, in order, not so much to provide a new scientific method, but rather to eliminate, as far as possible, any slipshold thinking [ 121. Thus, the discussion shifted from conceptual to applied prospective. 2. Applied Prospective: Structure and Studies’ THE FIRST

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“In less than five years, prospective studies have been blossoming as a new field of human activities: ministries, their divisions or laboratories, have been adding some forecasting offices; corporations have extended their short-term plans (5-10 years) into a longer perspective and the round figure of the year 2000 is a new subject of fascination [ 131, In a number of universities, courses devoted to prospective have been increasing steadily. The persons in charge of governmental affairs, of corporations, of trade unions, of regional and local communities, have had to discover an horizon located much beyond the medium term planning which had already enabled us to overcome the yearly basis for decisions.” Corporations have been gradually led to look into the future, to save and improve their adaptability, to grip the constantly moving reality, to keep up with the trends of the time, and to respond to changing needs. For this, they not only had to adapt their structures, but also, and above all, to educate men at each level of the hierarchy, so that they might become conscious of changes and be able to adapt themselves to new problems and an evolving social milieu; and so that they might learn how to drop their habits and rules of thumb, and adopt a responsible and creative attitude towards the future [ 141. This was obviously a necessity for corporations which had to remain aware of technological innovations and also for those who had to prepare long-range programs of investments. The evolution of consumption has quantitative as well as qualitative aspects: what will be the new needs? Could innovations modify some demands? For instance, to

2 Cf. Analyse & Prevision (Paris, SEDEIS, May 1973) special issue “An overview forecasting studies and applications in the French administration and big corporations.”

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what extent could the use of videophones replace physical travel by aircraft? What will be the railway traffic? . . . etc. From the’point of view of production, technological developments, such as the linear motor or fuel cell, may bring sudden changes, or produce shortages of natural resources as illustrated in a recent study by the French Atomic Energy Commissariat . . . Going further, the competition and the appearance of drastic changes lead some corporations even to query their own usefulness, the feasibility of their programs, and the value of their operations. SOME THEMES OF STUDIES

Prospective studies in science The objective of prospective studies in science is to answer the question: where should the scientific efforts be oriented? In general, these studies include two steps: (a) potentialities offered by a number of sciences in the future; and (b) definition of the orientation required to obtain the desired futures. The “Conseil National pour la Recherche Scientifique” provides an overall view of the activities concerning the future in France. The “Delegation Generale a la Recherche Scientifique et Technique” (D.G.R.S.T.) h as established an interagency Prospective Group which aims at confronting the prospective studies prepared by the diverse governmental agencies. Prospective studies concerning research are among the most difficult ones but also among the most important. A decision in the scientific field may take ten years to have an impact on society; in education, it may take twenty years. Prospective studies are therefore urgently needed in the field of science policy. Housing, construction, equipment, transports Other prospective studies have been aiming at defining research programs for governmental agencies in charge of construction, housing, urban planning, and transport, and to control their implementation. It was found easier, however, to include in the budgets funds to initiate prospective studies rather than to actually finance the actions recommended by these studies, which are always action-oriented but do not always convince the users to follow up. Industry Industries have found difficulties in their long-term projections due to the frequent mergers which have affected French companies in recent years and also due to the lack of skilled personnel available in this field.‘French national planning is indicative and not imperative; the orientation of research in private corporations is partly dependent, however, on national planners’ decisions concerning such issues as nuclear energy, oceanography, etc. Technological forecasting should be included in the overall studies of economic development and be a part of the “input/output tables”, so as to assess the impact of future technologies on the two hundred indicators which compose these tables. When new products or technical innovations appear, they should be taken into account in these tables. Forecasting of innovations makes it possible to assess the evolution of these tables five years in advance.

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Starting from present nomenclatures of inter-industry exchanges, new lists have been developed dealing with new products which may appear in ten or fifteen years. Among new technologies, only the most important ones are selected, from the point of view of their impact on employment, training, and needs for equipment. In the textile industry, for instance, there is a contradiction between the consumers, who demand a wide diversity of products, and technologists who require mass production. The answer has often been to start by standard manufacturing and to end up with diversity. This is sometimes the case also in chemical and electronics industries. The study of the textile industry showed that this sector is facing an important revolution by 1980-1985: now a labor-intensive type of industry, it will become more and more capital-intensive and will therefore be more concentrated in developed countries than in the developing ones. Similar prospective studies have been undertaken for mechanical, food, and construction industries. The study prepared by the Commissariat General du Plan on industry does not concentrate on alternative futures but rather on the problems which industry will have to face taking into account the evolution of technologies, of markets, and of international and tax structures. The role of the United Nations could be to promote such studies on global problems and consider their influence on societies, with a view to prepare orientations and decisions. While many studies have already been made on technological forecasting, the studies of social goals should be intensified by companies for their long-term planning. The trends concerning the needs and the demand at several income levels are at present little known. Studies have been undertaken by Honeywell Bull to assess the needs related to several income levels in Europe with a view to identify the corresponding system of values. The Delphi method and that of group dynamics were used. The Institute of Prospective and Science Policy of the University of Grenoble has prepared three studies: (a) the relationships between marketable activities and those outside the markets; (b) the role of mass information media on French society; and (c) social models. Financial support for these studies was obtained from the national scientific research agency (DGRST). The assumptions adopted for one factor depend closely upon the evolution of other factors, such as urbanization, transformation of political and social institutions, new criteria used for relevance, usefulness or efficiency, and the emergence of new problems such as pollution; finally the priorities agreed upon by society are questioned. As studies progress, more inter-relations have to be taken in account, and a need appears for multi-disciplinary studies, including models with a number of variables. “It is, a characteristic of our time that the “inter-dependencies between the social, political, cultural, psychological phenomena have become tighter, more intricate, and take special new shapes” [15] . There is therefore an increasing need for a global approach and for stepping out of the traditional sectoral bounds. The debate on the possibility or the necessity of matching the sectoral approach with an integrated approach has often been dealt with as if it were purely a problem of

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methodology. But actually, it is merely in the social reality that the problem of relations between the whole and the specific arises [ 161. THE MULTI-DISCIPLINARY STUDIES The necessity of a multidisciplinary

approach was recognized from the start by G. Berger and B. de Jouvenel as an inherent part of prospective thinking. The basic goal of prospective is the fulfillment of man and his creative role in his relationship with society. Futuribles defines as its purpose “to promote the application of research in the social sciences and to explore the “possible futures”. Its ambition is to work toward the gradual establishment of a permanent discussion of the future, by giving advance notice of unfavorable and favorable potentialities; this might contribute to divert policies from dangerous paths and guide them into the more promising ones. Such a discussion needs inputs from various disciplines and is conceived as intemationaZ[171. This task has been carried out both by S.E.D.E.I.S. (Societe d’Etudes et de Documentation Economiques, Industrielles, et Sociales)[ 181 and FUTURIBLES through a great deal of future-oriented studies and meetings, since the opening, in 1967, of the International House of Futuribles. Such a development has been possible due to the need, felt by more and more decision makers and future-oriented researchers working on one factor, to get information on the general context of society in all its aspects. When the ministries and the principal corporations became accustomed to refer to-or decided to create within their own structure-some prospective offices, the need appeared for them to develop, at the governmental and private level, some new structure of “concertation”. The Inter-ministerial Committee, such as the one directed by Claude Gruson under the direction of the Ministry of Environment, was created for that purpose. This permitted an extension of the geographical areas and of the topics concerned. From this point of view, the physical planning of territorial space, because of its global character, became a priority subject area for the promotion of deliberate and global planning by the “National Agency for the Equipment of the Territory and Regional Action” (D.A.T.A.R.). Headed by Mr. Jerome Monod, DATAR has undertaken, since 1968, prospective studies aiming at assessing decisions already taken and also at preparing new decisions for the Government with a view to organize activities in the national territory. This agency has established a research group (SESAME) (Systems study of the general equipment scheme of France), which defines the prospective studies to be undertaken, places research contracts, coordinates the work, and presents analytic and synthesis reports. The actual research work is done by public agencies or private consultant firms while it acts as an inter-ministerial agency. Several prospective schemes have thus been elaborated in the field of telecommunications, roads and highway networks, aeronautical equipment, regional economic centers, metropolitan zoning, river basins, computers, and information media. Special emphasis has been placed on the main societal changes or trends for changes, which can be foreseen in France, in Europe, and in the World, and which will have an impact on men and group attitudes and thereon upon national equipment schemes. The importance of prospective studies is therefore widely recognized, and it is anticipated that universities will make a significant contribution to this work. DATAR attempted to undertake, for the Council of Europe, a study of the European future including several alternative scenarios[l9] . This reflected the belief that it would be timely to undertake global international studies on the future, such as the use of the

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natural resources, the utilization of land, sea and air areas, the changes which now affect the developing and developed countries and the foreseable trends or changes in the relationship between these countries. On a national basis, the French Commissariat General au Plan has also undertaken research concerning the future. For several years the Commissariat General au Plan has developed for political decision makers a macro-social image describing long-term trends and possible innovations which could modify the future perspectives. The 6th Plan includes an analytical report in which prospective studies have been prepared for a number of sectors, and a synthesis report in which studies on sociology, consumers attitudes, and manpower mobility introduce the human aspects. The studies consider three aspects: (a) the long term tendencies; (b) the evaluation of the demands for changes, of the forces which contribute to promote changes, and of the decision-making policies, public and private; and (c) an outline of the “rules of the game”, i.e., the financial and legal existing institutions, their degree of coherence, their compatibility with the needs for changes, the subsequent need to modify the rules to stimulate the desired changes. The studies generally include the three following topics: (a) the economic and social sectors (agriculture, transport, housing . , . ), which constitute a “vertical” or sectoral futures research; (b) the processes and behaviors (urbanization, population changes, leisure activities . . . ) which are considered as “horizontal” futures research; and (c) a combination of the above two researches which represent the “synthesis” or “comprehensive” futures research. As M. B. Cazes explains, “the first two classes are obviously overlapping, as any sectoral futures research cannot ignore the environment of the problem it deals with; on the other hand, horizontal futures research almost inevitably refers to public policies, as it takes place during a decision-making process where the new five-year Plan is drafted. This approach, however, is useful for identifying neglected issues, for allotting responsibilities between working parties and/or ministries, and for developing a greater awareness of the interactions between areas where futures research studies take place”. Apart from the interactions existing between domestic problems, some interactions are also recognized between a country and its international environment. “No country any longer can think seriously about its medium or long-range future without taking into account the evolution of the future of the international surroundings in which it will exist and the increasing interdependence”[20]. The group of prospective studies of the 6th French Plan, established in 1969, under the chairmanship of Paul Delouvrier, issued an eloquent book[20] last year, which has opened the debate on the relationship between national planning and the surrounding world. This need had been vividly felt by the managers of both FUTURIBLES and S.E.D.E.I.S. (SocietC d’Etudes et de Documentation Economiques, Industrielles, et Sociales). The former, bearing in mind the necessity of developing a multidisciplinary and international forum on the futures, of creating a closer link between the increasing number of future-oriented planners and of providing the relevant means for the develop-

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ment of serious prospective thinking, established an international association in 1967 and opened in Paris a center for information and coordination in 1969. This institution, called “FU’I’URIBLES International House” is a clearing house which provides some means for research, such as a library, a documentation center, bibliographies, etc. At the same time, round tables are currently organ&d to open discussions on the great options of our societies. Recently, a research group has been created within the Association, which aims at providing assistance to future. oriented researchers by means of documentation services and pre-research studies [2 I] . The latter, S.E.D.E.I.S., which was closely associated with the FUTURIBLES group, as early as 1960, has published many future-oriented studies (more than 200). Conceived on a multi-disciplinary basis, S.E.D.E.I.S. aims at providing a link between the different actors of society, intellectuals, managers of corporations, decision makers, etc., by organizing forums and brain storming sessions on the main economic and social problems. SOCIAL FORECASTING

Social forecasting was really born when the need appeared for global, multi-variable studies, including the “classic topics such as demography, health, food, education, employment, urbanization, . . . and also the new issues derived from the present predicaments of our industrialized societies, such as violence, alienation, discimination, environment, poverty, participation, creativity, etc. Social forecasting is by vocation global.” [24] . When we enter the field of societal studies, we need a continuous feed-back from the global to the specific, and vice versa. Most of the above mentioned groups, which deal with multi-disciplinary studies, have referred to this methodology which is necessary whenever problems co-exist within a whole set. This method was used by such groups as “Modes of Life”, established by the Commissariat General au Plan, or by the present group which succeeded the former, entitled “Center for Research and Documentation on Consumption” (CREDOC). The latter has identified several specific areas such as “the frame of life (housing, environment, transportation), the activities related to the human body (food, toilet, beauty, clothing, health) the professional, educational, cultural, and family activities; leisure, the financial behavior, the time-schedule constraints, and the life-cycle.” [25] . Social prospective can be defined as the study of social progress in modern societies and includes the role of science and technology to stimulate-or delay-this progress. Universities are expected to make a significant contribution to such studies. “Action stimulates thinking and thinking stimulates action,” remarked Henri Bianchi, Director of another Research Center, “Science et Vie”. “Thus, crisis, wars, and social disturbances are, unfortunately, at the root of the blossoming of prospective studies.” This Center has undertaken research on crises and their consequences on the scientific policies of these corporations. It established a model including economic, social, and psychological factors and used it to study the attitudes towards work, and the value judgements generated by several types of works. This model is based on 40 equations linking technological factors, social attitudes, and national economic parameters. The analysis of the results which are used as a feedback to adjust the model, has shown that difficulties arise mainly from the non-quantifiable elements. The model was tried on several scenarios such as: (a) Intensive capitalism with high growth rate and severe social constraints;

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(b) stabilized economy with political disorders. These experiments led to the conclusion that the definition of projects should be limited by the availability of data, but should not be limited by national borders. Future studies will deal with more specific subjects, such as the income distribution in several countries and social problems of companies 10 years ahead. The growing interactions between problems and also the increasing relationships between countries explain the need for multidisciplinary as well as international studies, particularly in the field of social forecasting and also in a number of other areas. For example, the Ministry for Industry and Scientific Development sponsored studies such as “Industry in 1985” or “Probable nuclear processes”, where market trends, peace studies, evolution of American industry, etc. had to be taken into account. The Commissariat General au Plan, in its study on “Problems which industry will have to face” also took into account the evolution of technologies, of markets, customs, and national as well as international political structures. When each Ministry in charge of a sector had prepared prospective studies concerning its own field, it was felt necessary to coordinate these schemes. The Scientific Research Council decided then to convene a panel composed of representatives of each Ministry to discuss the assumptions they had used and their prospective schemes. This panel met monthly for 2 years. A national prospective scheme was thus developed. During this process, DATAR encountered several problems and reached certain conclusions which are briefly analyzed as follows (i) A common attitude has to be identified for the various study groups; (ii) the studies should be limited in scope so that they do not get over-extended; (iii) The study groups should be located near the political decision makers, but not become a part of their machinery; (iv) authors should keep an objective attitude towards the study and avoid influences, utopias, pessimism, or optimism; (v) time scales should be adapted to each study: for economics, 6 to 7 years; for highways, 15 years; and urban planning, 30 years; (vi) rather than describing the alternative futures of a society, the studies aim at forecasting conflicts and problems which this society will have to overcome to survive; This experience, which shows needs and problems in a national framework, could be valuable when designing the structures and methods to be adopted for international studies. 3. Towards International Prospective Thinking The United Nations might play a useful role to promote international studies at the global level, including technological assessment, i.e., an evaluation of the impact on society of the future technological trends, with a view to prepare orientations and decisions. The Economic Commission for Europe has already made studies on technological forecasting. UNESCO, on request of the Advisory Committee on the Application of Science and Technology to Development (ACAST), is preparing a survey of the scientific and technological institutions now existing in the World with a view to pinpoint those which are needed. For this purpose, a linear matrix is used showing what science and technology could provide and comparing this to the requirements of the national

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objectives. The missing institutions are identified, and a selection is then made of those deemed most necessary. Some regional intergovernmental agencies have also prepared several studies in these fields. For example, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has made studies on technological forecasting, on the relevance of systems analysis for elaborating policies, on trends in science policies in the last ten years, etc. . . In the course of these studies, it was found difficult to assess the consumption rates of natural resources and to undertake global studies which would include developing and developed countries, due to the diverging interests of both groups. It was felt, however, that a comparison of the methods utilized and a sharing of the experiences encountered by various nations would be of great interest. But further research is needed on an international basis, particularly on the impact of technologies on Man and Society. As our planet is becoming more and more “One Earth”, with shrinking dimensions, new technologies have acquired a capability to benefit or hurt men with an increased strength and on a worldwide scale. The problems connected with the application of science and technology to development have been the subject of studies and action by the United Nations since the last ten years. More recently, the UN has concerned itself with the influence of technologies on the human environment. Research should now concentrate on the impact of science and technology on the future of man and society; particularly in the fields where new scientific and technological progress appear, such as genetics, biology, computers, energy, telecommunications, etc. Studies should also be undertaken to improve the understanding of the traditional patterns of development, taking into account the long-range consequences and the qualitative aspects of growth. The problems could be tackled from two angles: The first would be the selection of objectives, and the second, the choice of the methods. Taking first the objectives, they should be selected with a view to solve problems of a common world priority, such as the human environment, population, the use of natural resources, etc. They would have to take into account the wide diversity of concepts, of regional or national priorities, of means available in each region, and of their degree of development. A world wide perspective could only be established after discussions of conflicting values and priorities. Two studies were quoted during the Paris meeting as topics of a paramount importance (1) The first study would aim at assessing the capacity of the biosphere and the manner in which it evolves; the ecological analysis is not sufficient in this case where three wide objectives are pursued: (a) insure the survival of the human species; (b) avoid a world wide disaster; and (c) outline the rationale of the choices which we now have to face between available amenities, as we cannot any more benefit from them all simultaneously. (ii) The second study would endeavor to evaluate the perspectives for a depletion of the natural resources of the globe. Studies by experts, sponsored by the United Nations, have already started on this topic, taking into account the potentialities for recycling and developing alternative forms of energy and technologies. Taking now the second type of problems, in connection with methodology, there is a need for data collection and its appropriate utilization for the purposes of research. Whatever is the scale on which prospective studies are made-national, regional, or

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international-it is essential to design the means by which relevant and comprehensive data will be collected from international sources. The planning of adequate data collection procedures is a prerequisite for international studies, and large efforts will be required to establish the international networks capable of providing a better knowledge of the current problems, survey the national scenarios before attempting to harmonize them, and insure the necessary feedback and cooperation among participants. National agencies find it more and more important to include in their national prospective studies parameters reflecting the trends in the neighboring countries. This has to be extended to those other countries which affect the trade, education, and other aspects of the life of the nation. The need for subregional, regional, and also world wide studies is becoming apparent. It would be probably timely to undertake global studies on the futures of the world, the utilization of its resources, land, sea and atmosphere; on the deep changes which affect the developing as well as the developed countries; and on the trends in the relationships between the two groups of nations. A POTENTIAL ROLE FOR THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM IN THE FIELD OF PROSPECTIVE STUDIES ON AN INTERNATIONAL

SCALE

Is it possible to use the results of national experiences, such as the French one, as indicated above and all the many others, to outline a possible role for the United Nations? This was the question which the Paris meeting addressed to itself. A short summary of the views expressed on this occasion is given below. [26] It is probable that some studies are needed at the global level, as they would be carried out by an international organisation, and would provide data which would enable Governments to steer the policy of Planet Earth. But we live in a definite political context which explains why the United Nations has been so slow to move into prospective studies: Institutions have to become indispensable before it becomes possible to create them! The studies envisaged would aim at sensing the somewhat imperceptible changes as they occur and assess their cumulative impacts, so that wise decisions can be taken in due course before their detrimental effects have become irreversible. (a) A Center for Collective Reflection The United Nations system is already gathering data and issuing projections in the field of economic development and in several sectors such as population, food, agriculture, natural resources, health, telecommunications, housing, etc. The environmental aspects have now been added. Programs are prepared on a ten-year basis: The Second Development Decade and the World Plan of Action for the Application of Science and Technology to Development cover the period 1973-1980. It would be desirable that prospective studies now embrace a longer-term range, identify the factors to be considered as “heavy future bearers”, and utilize an interdisciplinary approach. It seems difficult to go very far beyond this observer function: The United Nations, as a center for collective reflection, represents the minimum coordinating role which Governments are prepared to accept at the global level. This is why it was felt that prospective studies would be better performed in a satellite organisation such as UNITAR, rather than in the organisation itself. (b) A Confrontation of National Activities The United Nations could play a great role in gathering the prospective studies performed by countries, preparing synthesis at the international level of methods,

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experiences, and activities, and eventually drawing the attention of Governments to the incompatibilities which might arise between scenarios adopted in various parts of the world. In this connection, the contribution of China to the UN work, for instance, may introduce a new approach to global development problems. One of the difficulties which have to be faced in the preparation of global studies lies in the coverage of widely differentiated societies. But an initiative of this sort by the UN would be of great interest, despite its difficulties, as it would permit an international confrontation of the images of the future generated by various countries. It would be useful for an international experts group to meet to review the work already performed, assess the value of the methodologies utilized, and evaluate the impacts that technological changes may have on developing countries. An International Conference might probably be useful to provide a forum where the various prospective groups could meet and exchange experiences. (c) Raising an Awareness Among Nations The mere existence and availability of instruments, however rational they may be, will not suffice to develop the use of prospective in the United Nations. What is needed, rather, is the appearance of alarm signals which will demonstrate the urgency for undertaking prospective studies. Taking the example of ecology: How blind we have been! A similar opportunity is now arising in the field of energy, where so many new sources could be tapped, such as the sun, the tides, the geothermal reservoirs of land and sea, and the biological energy conversions; and so many technologies are queuing for development, such as magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), fuel cells, solar satellites with microwave power transmission, etc. The role of the UN in this would be essentially to develop an awareness of the global problems and of their potential solutions through a cooperative international effort. This would not be an operational role, but rather one of initiating among countries an awareness of the need for a World Prospective. This might be recommended by the newly created UN Committee on Science and Technology for Development at its next session, which will probably be in 1974, as its first session has just been held in New York from 12 to 30 March 1973. This might also retain the attention of the Commission of New Perspectives of UNITAR. (d) Scientific Policies for the Benefit of Developing Countries The elaboration of a science policy at the global level, as regards especially the relationships between developed and developing countries, is important and particularly necessary: The growth of developing countries is correlatively linked with that of developed countries, and any reduction in the growth of the latter will bear consequences on the former’s growth. The indispensable growth of developing countries, on one hand, and the era of stabilization which several industrialized nations are now entering, on the other hand, risk the generation of a situation of conflicts and a number of cultural reactions. Prospective studies should probably be used in these fields, and also be fruitfully applied by the UN system in its own work on these subjects. The United Nations could stimulate the training of specialists on prospective studies and prospective engineering by encouraging the introduction of appropriate courses on these topics in the academic curricula. (e) Technological Assessment Economic planning is a difficult task; when the UN has sufficiently succeded in it, it should consider the problems of technological assessment, in a perspective of planetary

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priorities. The objective would be to identify the technological trends from a global point of view and to evaluate the impact of technological changes on the developing countries, with a view to avoid their possible detrimental effects and maximize their beneficial potentialities. Here again, the new Committee on Science and Technology for Development might play a useful role in launching such ideas. The United Nations might contribute to promote an overall view of the prospective problems from an international standpoint. There is a need to mobilize the intellectual resources to forecast, sufficiently in advance, the future directions in which mankind now wants to orient itself. References and Notes 1. A book on Gaston Berger and Prospective will soon be published in English: Shaping the Future, Gaston Berger and the concept of prospective, Andre Cournand and Maurive Levy, Gordon and Breach (1973). For the help of the English readers, among our footnotes related to Gaston Berger, we will refer, as far as possible, to the above book which makes the main ideas about prospective available in English. We remain at the disposal of those who would have the reference of the French original version. Cf. also Andre Cournand, Prospective philosophy and methods, some preliminary application to Medical Education”, Futures, (December 1971). 2. A very complete introduction to forecasting and the basic concepts of Futuribles is available in English through Bertrand de Jouvenel’s book: The Art of Conjecture, New York, Basic books (1967). For any further detail, you may contact the “International Association Futuribles” (continuation of the Committee) which merged last year with the Prospective Association: Futuribles’ International House, 52 rue des saints Peres, 75007 Paris, France. 3. Forecasting and planning, and Selections from reflections on 1985 by Pierre Masse, Shaping the Future op. cit. 4. Pierre Masse, op. cit. 5. Gaston Berger Social Science and Forecasting (1957). Following this text, the series of Cahiers de prospective, started in May 1958 as a way of expression of the International Center of Prospective that Gaston Berger had just created. See also Les Etapes de Ia Prospective, Paris, PUF (1967). 6. Bertrand de Jouvenel, op. cit. p. 3-4. 7. A. Cournand and M. Levy, Gaston Berger, Social science and forecasting, op. cit. Chap. 1. 8. Une image de la France en l’an 2000, scenario de l’innacceptable, 7kavaux et Recherches de Prospective, N” 20, Paris, La Documentation Francaise (1971). According to the same idea, cf William Watts Foreword to the Limits of Growth. 9. Bertrand de Jouvenel, op. cit. p. 17. 10. Bertrand de Jouvenel Le Rble de la Prkvision dans les Affaires Publiques”, Paris, Les Cours de Droit (1966) p. 23-26. 11. Bertrand de Jouvenel, Forward looking today and tomorrow, paper presented at the Kyoto World Future Conference 1970. 12. Three conferences on methodology were hold in Geneva (June 1962), Paris (July 1963), and Yale (December 1964) by Futuribles. As far as we know, these are to date the first interdisciplinary conferences to have been hold on long term speculations. 13. Pierre Piganiol, Futurologie et Prospective, Revue Internationale de Sciences Sociales, Paris, UNESCO, Vol21 (1969) No 4 p. 558. 14. cf Snecma Une Expkence de Prospective Appliquhe, Paris, Fayard (1963). The substance of this experience is reported in Chap. 7 of A. Cournand and M. Levy’s. op. cit. 15. Y. Barel, Prospective et analyse de systeme Travaux et recherches de prospective, Paris, La Documentation Francaise (February 1971) N” 14 p. 25 and sv. 16. Yves Barel, op. cit. The new models dealing with several variables are a good proof of the recognition given to this fact and of the present efforts made for integratice studies. 17. Abstract from a booklet issued in 1966 on the launching and development of Futuribles’ activities, 1961-1966. 18. S.E.D.E.1.S (Center for economic, industrial and social studies and documentation). This group has

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been closely linked with Futuribles since the beginning and has been publishing the prospective studies sponsored by Futuribles. 19. Des Scenarios Europeens d’Amenagement du Territoire in Sesame, Paris, DATAR, 1972, p. 47. 20. 1985, Commissariat G&&al du Plan, Paris, Coil. Plan et Prospectives, A. Colin, Ed. (1972). 21. This research unit called “Laboratory for Applied Prospective” is managed by Andre Clement Decoufle who is, at the same time, general delegate of the International Association Futuriibles. 22. Analyse & Prevision published a special survey of applied prospective in the French Administration and large corporations: their fields of study, methods, and needs, May, 1973. 23. Bertrand de Jouvenel: Arcadie, Essais sur le Mieux Vivre, Paris, S.E.D.E.1.S 1968. 24. Andre Clement Decoufle La Prospective, CON. Que sais je PUF, Paris, (1972), p. 60. For a definition of social prospective, cf specially pp. 60-61. 25. Varii AuctoresModes de Vie I985 directed by V. Scardigli, Paris, CREDOC. 26. The participants in the meeting held in Paris on 26 June 1971 were: chairman: Dr. A. Cournand, Nobel Prize in Medecine; P. Piganiol, President, Association Internationale Futuribles. United Nations: MM. P. de Seynes, Under Secretary General for Economic and Social Affairs; G. Gresford, Director, and B. Chatel, Office for Science and Technology; Chapdelaine, UNESCO. O.E.C.D.: M. J.J. Salomon France: MM. P. Aigrain, Delegue General a la Recherche Scientifique (DGRST); S. Antoine, Ministere de L’Enviromrement; H. Aujac, Directeur, Bureau d’lnformations et de Previsions Economiques (BIPE); Y. Barel, Institut de Prospective et de Politique de la Science, Universite de Grenoble; H. Bianchi, Directeur, Centre de Recherches “Science et Vie”; Boss, Sincro; B. Gazes, Delegue, Commissariat General au Plan; J. Chobaux, Ministere de 1’Equipement et du Logement; Christophe, Sincro; J. Darcet, Compagnie des Compteurs Schlumberger; Deleage, Minis&e du Developpement Industriel et Scientifique; M. Delouvrier, President de I’Electricitb de France (EdF); Miss de Felice, Institut de Prospective et de Politique de la Science, Universitk de Grenoble; J. Fourastie, Professeur au Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers; M. Fuchs, Societe BullHoneywell; P. Gerardin, CSF-Thompson; Dr. J.R. Grinda, Laboratoires Roussel-UCLAF; R. Hamelin, Ugine Kuhlmann; P. Hanappe, Office Technique d’amenagement; M. Levy, Delegation G&r&ale a la Recherche Scientifique; P. Masse, President de la Fondation de France; M. Michon, Sincro; M. Nicolon, Institut de Recherches et d’Etudes Petrolieres; M. Parayre, Ministere du Dbveloppement Industriel et Scientifique; M. Ranchin, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers; R. Saint Paul, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers; M. Sabeau Jouannet, Caisse Nationale du Credit Agricole; J. Sevin, Delegation Generale a la Recherche Scientifique; L. Thiriet, Commissariat a 1’Energie Atomique; M. Vignier, Sincro; P. Wacrenier, Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Mini&es. Received June 20, 19 73