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Castello Branco’s motives, of his personality, his aspirations, and of the forces (in the army and in Congress) he had to contend with, he argues persuasively against those who saw Caste110 simply as a reactionary military dictator. Campbell was obviously dismayed by the hardening of the military attitudes towards the country’s formally democratic institutions and by the gradual disappearance of any semblance of civilian politics; his analysis is nevertheless not affected by his feelings, and the internal logic of the process, from the point of view of the rulers of the country, emerges clearly. Strangely enough I found Campbell-who is an economist-less convincing in dealing with economic matters. Again, it is the Castello Branco period, when Roberto Campos was in charge of planning, that gets the most satisfactory treatment; the strategy of the fight against inflation, and its dampening effect on economic activity, is well described. But Campbell is less sure of himself when it comes to assessing the period of economic growth that started in 1968. The ‘economic miracle’ remains a bit of a mystery; it is presented more in terms of the blueprints and policy statements than through the dynamics of the economic system. We are often presented with detailed expositions of government plans, policy statements or development doctrineswhich speak of genuine democracy, participation in the fruits of growth by all sectors of the population, especially the poor, etc.-but there is hardly any critical testing of these myths against reality. Shreds of past articles seem at times pasted together; the data are patchy and the evaluation, where attempted, is at most impressionistic. Campbell’s sense of social justice helps him see that the boom has left many Brazilians behind: perhaps even the majority. But there is, for example, no use of statistics to analyse income distribution, and no serious discussion of agriculture. As for the peasants, still around 40 per cent of Brazil’s population, they remain shadowy figures, seen from a passing ‘bus or through the eyes of landowners or development planners-and this is so even in the chapter on the North-east. There
Readings in Macroeconomics. Edited Second edition. Pp. 475. E2.00.)
Campbell’s compassion for the poor comes through forcefully, but does not help him to throw any new light on the region’s problems and their causes, or to present a balanced picture of the situation (which is something other than the juxtaposition of journalistic vignettes). In general, the book does rather suffer from the absence of a careful plan and of a methodical consideration of the various aspects about which its audience would need to be informed. Even the average Financial Times reader has to be given a perspective which is wider than that of the businessman or entrepreneur, and the immediate environment in which he has to work; and on those occasions when Campbell steps outside the field in which he feels most at home, he has a tendency to rely excessively on one or at best two sources- when he analyses in general terms the military, for example, or or the urban guerilla movement. He the church, obviously did not approve of the security services’ way of handling the latter, but his discussion of their methods is so circumspect (I noticed the word ‘torture’ only once, as if used by accident) that no one can deduce from the discussion that there may have been a connection between widespread, brutal torture, the stamping out not only of guerilla activity, but of virtually all explicit public opposition to the kind of ‘development policy’ pursued, and the creation of the political conditions of ‘order’ and ‘predictability’ in which a resurgence of confidence by domestic and foreign capital could contribute to the impressive growth rates Brazil has seen. A disturbing conclusion, but one Campbell should have drawn. Students of development problems, even if no experts on Brazil, are likely to be somewhat disappointed by this book-but then it really wasn’t written for them. Less demanding readers will find the book often useful and always interesting, although they will have to consult some other sources too if they are not to overlook a number of rather important strands in the story. Emmanuel de Kadt Institute of Development Studies, Sussex.
by M. G. Mueller.
The first edition of this collection of readings appeared in 1965 and fully merited the position it quickly achieved in the front rank of companions to undergraduate courses in macroeconomics. In this as in any other field one can roughly classify the numerous contributions that appear in journals into three categories: those which are essential reading at a given level of study; those which are less essential but may still be read with profit; and those from which the representative student at the chosen level is unlikely to benefit because they are either too easy or too difficult. Ail the readings in this collection fell into the first category for undergraduates and few members of that category, when due allowance is made for the constraints on student time and the inevitable subjectivity of such classifications, were omitted.
93
(London:
Halt,
Rinehart
and Winston,
1973.
The second edition is not very different from the first. One reading has been revised, short footnotes have been appended to three others to cover developments in their subject matter since 1965, and to the seven original sections-determinants of the level of aggregate income; consumption; investment; money, interest and income; wage rates, the price level and employment; fluctuations and growth; policy issues-has been added one on income stabilization and forecasting, raising the number of contributions to thirty-two. These changes are not so large as to require owners of the first edition to replace it, but the second can be warmly recommended to anyone who still has need of a fairly comprehensive collection of seminal articles on macroeconomics. Special commendation should go to the publishers who have made the book accessible by pricing it so
WORLD
94
DEVELOPMENT
reasonably. A big paperback printed in two columns can be awkward and unpleasant to read, and the pages of this one are certainly crowded. Such discomforts are worth bearing in the cause of low prices for this type of book, especially since it will usually be read in parts and not straight through. Except for the contributions by Phillips, the empirical and institutional papers tend to draw their data and examples from the United States. This is perhaps inevitable considering how much more empirical work has been done in that country than elsewhere and how important so much of it has been. However, it is arguable both that students find more interest and illumination in examples from their own countries and that one should seek inter-country confirmation of empirical results for generality. There is thus a case for regretting that the editor did not extend his role to supplying a bibliography of relevant empirical work to support the single-country studies. Finally, three points about selection. it is of course quite impossible to make a perfect selection of reasonable size from so large a field of possibilities and,
Europe in the Making. By Walter Hallstein.
(London:
Walter Hallstein is one of the great Europeans. He was President of the Commission of the European Economic Community from 1958 to 1967 and his book, published at the end of 1972, first written and published in German in 1969, brings the story of the EEC up to March 1972 with the United Kingdom’s entry firmly secured for 1 January 1973. All committed European federalists are more concerned with Europe and European unity than with Europe’s relation to the rest of the world. They rightly argue that a united Europe will be able to influence world events, but a Europe with nine separate foreign policies is likely to look ridiculous..The weakness of the EEC in the face of the Arab oil cuts, the spineless Community statement made on 6 November in a futile attempt to appease the oil exporters and the failure to reach agreement on the size of the regional fund and a co-ordinated EEC.energy position in Copenhagen on 18 December 1973, are all illustrations of how fragile are the links binding ‘nation States’ to the fabric of a united Europe. Dr. Hallstein’s section on the energy policies of the EEC (pp. 214- 25) could have been more carefully considered by the Commission (p. 214): The time factor demands that the new common authority emerging from this process, must even as it evolves -cope with the truly revolutionary resrructuring the energy industry must undergo.
The recently announced increase in the posted price of Gulf crude from $5.10 per barrel to $11.65 will completely transform Europe’s over-all balance-ofpayments position from comfortable surplus and large reserves to one of dwindling reserves and massive current-account deficits. The strain on monetary union will become intolerable and inter-bank swap credits of $80 100 billion will have to be established with the United States and Japan to enable the OECD countries to weather the storm. The most severe test of the EEC’s
as indicated above, the first edition was very good in this respect. However, since some revision was undertaken in the second edition it seems not too unfair to suggest that a chance for improvement was missed. Firstly, apart from Meade’s paper on Bretton Woods, the international and the balance of payments is entirely economy neglected. A section on international macroeconomics seems a more important addition than the one made. Secondly, the crucial work of Leijonhufvud goes unmentioned but should surely have had a representative in Part V. Thirdly, the contents of Part VI on growth could perhaps have been revised to reflect more closely the current thrust of this branch of theory. The selection as it stands has a somewhat dated appearance a trap skilfully avoided elsewhere in the book. These are important reservations but they do not alter the fact that this is a very valuable collection of readings.
j. D. West Christ Church, Oxfiwd
.George Allen and Unwin, 1972. Pp. 343. E5.50.)
unity in the 1970s is likely to be in the field of energy policy, particularly as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will face the unpleasant choice of reserving North Sea oil and natural gas for domestic use or sharing reserves with other Community members and paying high international prices for their large residual energy requirements. Hallstein’s warning (p. 225) has not been heeded: A common energy policy is therefore essential. Europe’s economy fo a large extent depends on such a policy if it is fo reap the full benefit of its potential resources.
The deveioping world and especially the poorer countries of South Asia, East and West Africa and the Caribbean are deeply concerned about the EEC’s foreign policy and the Community’s continued interest in its world-wide commitments and obligations as the second richest economic power in the world. The rest of this review will concentrate on Hallstein’s views in Chapter 6 (pp. 244--91) ‘The Community and the World’ and the short concluding passage (pp. 327- 33) ‘The Fruit of Experience’. The policy is unfortunately extremely ud hoc-French Africa became associated with the EEC through the Venice Conference and the Yaound6 Agreement to help France spread its burdens and because the countries were still colonies at the time the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957. The Commission developed a very confused and limited Mediterranean policy involving some form of treaty protocol or association with all Mediterranean countries other than Libya and Albania, a rag-bag of trade agreements were signed, but the terms were severely restrictive and grant few really valuable trading concessions to the poorer Countries. The entry of the United Kingdom could have been an opportunity to clarify EEC objectives and begin to work towards a common policy, but negotiations for Association by former British territories in the Caribbean, Africa and
Castello Branco’s motives, of his personality, his aspirations, and of the forces (in the army and in Congress) he had to contend with, he argues persuasively against those who saw Caste110 simply as a reactionary military dictator. Campbell was obviously dismayed by the hardening of the military attitudes towards the country’s formally democratic institutions and by the gradual disappearance of any semblance of civilian politics; his analysis is nevertheless not affected by his feelings, and the internal logic of the process, from the point of view of the rulers of the country, emerges clearly. Strangely enough I found Campbell-who is an economist-less convincing in dealing with economic matters. Again, it is the Castello Branco period, when Roberto Campos was in charge of planning, that gets the most satisfactory treatment; the strategy of the fight against inflation, and its dampening effect on economic activity, is well described. But Campbell is less sure of himself when it comes to assessing the period of economic growth that started in 1968. The ‘economic miracle’ remains a bit of a mystery; it is presented more in terms of the blueprints and policy statements than through the dynamics of the economic system. We are often presented with detailed expositions of government plans, policy statements or development doctrineswhich speak of genuine democracy, participation in the fruits of growth by all sectors of the population, especially the poor, etc.-but there is hardly any critical testing of these myths against reality. Shreds of past articles seem at times pasted together; the data are patchy and the evaluation, where attempted, is at most impressionistic. Campbell’s sense of social justice helps him see that the boom has left many Brazilians behind: perhaps even the majority. But there is, for example, no use of statistics to analyse income distribution, and no serious discussion of agriculture. As for the peasants, still around 40 per cent of Brazil’s population, they remain shadowy figures, seen from a passing ‘bus or through the eyes of landowners or development planners-and this is so even in the chapter on the North-east. There
Readings in Macroeconomics. Edited Second edition. Pp. 475. E2.00.)
Campbell’s compassion for the poor comes through forcefully, but does not help him to throw any new light on the region’s problems and their causes, or to present a balanced picture of the situation (which is something other than the juxtaposition of journalistic vignettes). In general, the book does rather suffer from the absence of a careful plan and of a methodical consideration of the various aspects about which its audience would need to be informed. Even the average Financial Times reader has to be given a perspective which is wider than that of the businessman or entrepreneur, and the immediate environment in which he has to work; and on those occasions when Campbell steps outside the field in which he feels most at home, he has a tendency to rely excessively on one or at best two sources- when he analyses in general terms the military, for example, or or the urban guerilla movement. He the church, obviously did not approve of the security services’ way of handling the latter, but his discussion of their methods is so circumspect (I noticed the word ‘torture’ only once, as if used by accident) that no one can deduce from the discussion that there may have been a connection between widespread, brutal torture, the stamping out not only of guerilla activity, but of virtually all explicit public opposition to the kind of ‘development policy’ pursued, and the creation of the political conditions of ‘order’ and ‘predictability’ in which a resurgence of confidence by domestic and foreign capital could contribute to the impressive growth rates Brazil has seen. A disturbing conclusion, but one Campbell should have drawn. Students of development problems, even if no experts on Brazil, are likely to be somewhat disappointed by this book-but then it really wasn’t written for them. Less demanding readers will find the book often useful and always interesting, although they will have to consult some other sources too if they are not to overlook a number of rather important strands in the story. Emmanuel de Kadt Institute of Development Studies, Sussex.
by M. G. Mueller.
The first edition of this collection of readings appeared in 1965 and fully merited the position it quickly achieved in the front rank of companions to undergraduate courses in macroeconomics. In this as in any other field one can roughly classify the numerous contributions that appear in journals into three categories: those which are essential reading at a given level of study; those which are less essential but may still be read with profit; and those from which the representative student at the chosen level is unlikely to benefit because they are either too easy or too difficult. Ail the readings in this collection fell into the first category for undergraduates and few members of that category, when due allowance is made for the constraints on student time and the inevitable subjectivity of such classifications, were omitted.
93
(London:
Halt,
Rinehart
and Winston,
1973.
The second edition is not very different from the first. One reading has been revised, short footnotes have been appended to three others to cover developments in their subject matter since 1965, and to the seven original sections-determinants of the level of aggregate income; consumption; investment; money, interest and income; wage rates, the price level and employment; fluctuations and growth; policy issues-has been added one on income stabilization and forecasting, raising the number of contributions to thirty-two. These changes are not so large as to require owners of the first edition to replace it, but the second can be warmly recommended to anyone who still has need of a fairly comprehensive collection of seminal articles on macroeconomics. Special commendation should go to the publishers who have made the book accessible by pricing it so
WORLD
94
DEVELOPMENT
reasonably. A big paperback printed in two columns can be awkward and unpleasant to read, and the pages of this one are certainly crowded. Such discomforts are worth bearing in the cause of low prices for this type of book, especially since it will usually be read in parts and not straight through. Except for the contributions by Phillips, the empirical and institutional papers tend to draw their data and examples from the United States. This is perhaps inevitable considering how much more empirical work has been done in that country than elsewhere and how important so much of it has been. However, it is arguable both that students find more interest and illumination in examples from their own countries and that one should seek inter-country confirmation of empirical results for generality. There is thus a case for regretting that the editor did not extend his role to supplying a bibliography of relevant empirical work to support the single-country studies. Finally, three points about selection. it is of course quite impossible to make a perfect selection of reasonable size from so large a field of possibilities and,
Europe in the Making. By Walter Hallstein.
(London:
Walter Hallstein is one of the great Europeans. He was President of the Commission of the European Economic Community from 1958 to 1967 and his book, published at the end of 1972, first written and published in German in 1969, brings the story of the EEC up to March 1972 with the United Kingdom’s entry firmly secured for 1 January 1973. All committed European federalists are more concerned with Europe and European unity than with Europe’s relation to the rest of the world. They rightly argue that a united Europe will be able to influence world events, but a Europe with nine separate foreign policies is likely to look ridiculous..The weakness of the EEC in the face of the Arab oil cuts, the spineless Community statement made on 6 November in a futile attempt to appease the oil exporters and the failure to reach agreement on the size of the regional fund and a co-ordinated EEC.energy position in Copenhagen on 18 December 1973, are all illustrations of how fragile are the links binding ‘nation States’ to the fabric of a united Europe. Dr. Hallstein’s section on the energy policies of the EEC (pp. 214- 25) could have been more carefully considered by the Commission (p. 214): The time factor demands that the new common authority emerging from this process, must even as it evolves -cope with the truly revolutionary resrructuring the energy industry must undergo.
The recently announced increase in the posted price of Gulf crude from $5.10 per barrel to $11.65 will completely transform Europe’s over-all balance-ofpayments position from comfortable surplus and large reserves to one of dwindling reserves and massive current-account deficits. The strain on monetary union will become intolerable and inter-bank swap credits of $80 100 billion will have to be established with the United States and Japan to enable the OECD countries to weather the storm. The most severe test of the EEC’s
as indicated above, the first edition was very good in this respect. However, since some revision was undertaken in the second edition it seems not too unfair to suggest that a chance for improvement was missed. Firstly, apart from Meade’s paper on Bretton Woods, the international and the balance of payments is entirely economy neglected. A section on international macroeconomics seems a more important addition than the one made. Secondly, the crucial work of Leijonhufvud goes unmentioned but should surely have had a representative in Part V. Thirdly, the contents of Part VI on growth could perhaps have been revised to reflect more closely the current thrust of this branch of theory. The selection as it stands has a somewhat dated appearance a trap skilfully avoided elsewhere in the book. These are important reservations but they do not alter the fact that this is a very valuable collection of readings.
j. D. West Christ Church, Oxfiwd
.George Allen and Unwin, 1972. Pp. 343. E5.50.)
unity in the 1970s is likely to be in the field of energy policy, particularly as the United Kingdom and the Netherlands will face the unpleasant choice of reserving North Sea oil and natural gas for domestic use or sharing reserves with other Community members and paying high international prices for their large residual energy requirements. Hallstein’s warning (p. 225) has not been heeded: A common energy policy is therefore essential. Europe’s economy fo a large extent depends on such a policy if it is fo reap the full benefit of its potential resources.
The deveioping world and especially the poorer countries of South Asia, East and West Africa and the Caribbean are deeply concerned about the EEC’s foreign policy and the Community’s continued interest in its world-wide commitments and obligations as the second richest economic power in the world. The rest of this review will concentrate on Hallstein’s views in Chapter 6 (pp. 244--91) ‘The Community and the World’ and the short concluding passage (pp. 327- 33) ‘The Fruit of Experience’. The policy is unfortunately extremely ud hoc-French Africa became associated with the EEC through the Venice Conference and the Yaound6 Agreement to help France spread its burdens and because the countries were still colonies at the time the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957. The Commission developed a very confused and limited Mediterranean policy involving some form of treaty protocol or association with all Mediterranean countries other than Libya and Albania, a rag-bag of trade agreements were signed, but the terms were severely restrictive and grant few really valuable trading concessions to the poorer Countries. The entry of the United Kingdom could have been an opportunity to clarify EEC objectives and begin to work towards a common policy, but negotiations for Association by former British territories in the Caribbean, Africa and