- Email: [email protected]
Reinventing Italy: Methodological challenges
Futures,
Pergamon
Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 241-254,
1996
Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed m Great Britain. All rights reserved 0016-3287196 $15.00 + 0.00
SO01 6-3287(96)00004-3
REINVENTING ITALY: METHODOLOGlCAL CHALLENGES Rafael Ramirez
This article reviews a struggle to bring in futures-centred systems thinking into present complexities inherited from the past. This thinking is meant to inform actions that better obtain conditions for system viability in light of high degrees of uncertainty. A number of theoretical and practical challenges are analysed, allowing the description to be usable in other, similar situations. Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
This article’
reviews
Italy to address pertaining
to
productivity,2
a methodology
its future.
(a) its moralilty, in addition
it and its possible This initiative
article
Sweden,’ reviews
all in keeping The normative
to the enhanced
fits the category or Algeria
the project
which
in 1993 to enable four challenges
finances,
a changing
and
context
(d) its
posed for
position
research
initiatives
the futures of Finland,’
in the context
thus evolved
evolved
countrywide
Peru,5 St Lucia,’
western
standpoint. centred
addressing
Mexico,4
of an evolving
aims, the project
which
evolving
identity
of futures
In doing
so, it outlines
these into a normative on avoiding
aspects of Italy considered
enhance
This how,
standpoint.
the worst
to jointly
South
Mediterranean.’
possibilities, the viability
of
and sustainability. described
here emerged
in a number
of joint
meetings
over several
That this description
Feyerabend’s ‘natural’
launched
to be facing
(c) its public
uncertainty
from a methodological
with the initial
The methodology months.
considered
futures.
and on strengthening the country’s
in an initiative
(b) its institutions,
systems, such as those addressing Africa,’
utilized
Italy was at that time
analyses
sciences,
is made after the method was used is not unusual at all: as many scientifically rigorous methods in the ‘hard’ or show,”
supposed
to be prescriptive,
have
in fact come
to be recognized
(as
methods) ex post. In the same way, the methodology presented here, which can be adapted for prescriptive purposes in other project settings, was in the project in question something which could only be described post facto. The reason is that several ‘on-line
Dr Rafael Ramirez is Associate Professor of Management (Tel. +33 1 3967 7304; fax: +33 1 3967 7088).
at Groupe
HEC,
78351
Joy-en-Josas,
France.
241
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
constraints’, taken
which
into account
occasions.
The
articulated limited l
overall
around
in unanticipated
methodological
the ‘systems
ways
as the project
and these forced approach
design’
was
and ‘futures
emerged,
had to be
us to adapt the method grounded
studies’
in
traditions,
on several
systems
theory,
including
but not
to:
contextual ‘search
l
appeared
as we proceeded,
(‘factor’)
and transactional
conference’12
‘idealized
design’14
distinction
from
‘actor’-‘environment’ the ‘actor’
environment”
examinations
modes;
as well
in both the
as the
of organizations.
The contextual’-‘transactional’ can be appreciated
(‘actor’)
and in the ‘scenario-building’13
those
boundary
boundary)
from
which
separates
aspects
can be influenced
in turn distinguishes
those which
of the environment
by the actors
aspects which
are influenced
(beyond
which
concerned.
are controlled
the ‘actor’
The (within
boundary)
by
the actor. Search conferences transactional contextual
each other
without
futures
reaching
is then searched
within
(history,
the actor system as well
interests
closure.
for, ending
as in its
etc) and the factors
Common
ground
in the drawing
in the
for
together
viable
of common
plans.
Scenario to discern redefine future
how stakeholders
view
environment,
inter-stakeholder action
review
environment
building
possible
identifies
past and current
discontinuities
in this causal
later states of the system. states of the system
A small
Idealized contrasted
of technical
with
the current,
realism
and
actual
system.
which
actions
coherent,
best allowing
The
for moving
possible
The method
the system to prepare
would
viability.
Actions
and attempts fundamentally
themselves).
stakeholders
economic
could
internally
(the ‘scenarios’
design draws out the system which
limits
forces of a system,
set of distinct,
are then developed
then enables participants to draw up present for or address these possible futures. within
driving
architecture
ideally joint
like to exist,
design
is then
from one to the other
are
then developed. ‘Grounding’ us to deploy
the initiative
techniques
the method
coevolved
‘guarantor’
of the initiative’s
the overall
approach,while
thinking.
In particular,
and ensuring broken while
down
given
organization
adaptable
Within
element
and adapting,
allowing
task was to act as
1979 sense,15 ensuring
remained
politics
be considered
consistency,
the systems framework,
in the author’s
in Churchman’s
disallowing
addressed
gave it intellectual
conditions.
A central
‘system-icity’,
this entailed
into analysed
interorganizational, analysis-‘scenarios’
to fit evolving
with the project.
that elements
Two particularly the ‘search
on systems theory
flexibly
consistent
from diverting
in wider
with
that
systemic
away from policy,
contexts,
rather than simply
elements.
interesting challenges were addressed in this ‘guarantor’ role. First, conference’ approach is ‘domain-based’-that is, inherently with no single organization being at the ‘centre’ of the and ‘idealized (eg corporation
design’
have typically
or government
addressed
department).
the futures of a single
Given
that we were
analysing possible futures for a ‘country-system’,‘6 the single organizational usually anchors these methods was unavailable. The neat separation between
referent ‘factors’
here that and
‘actors’ distinguishing the contextual and transactional environments from each other that the single organizational point of view offers was less than straightforward when considering the environment from the point of view of a country as a whole. When the
242
Reinventing
system
that
is
environment
being
considered
is more complex,
and what
it can merely
one can argue transactional
is
multiorganizational,
and differentiating
appreciate
that from
Italy’s
environment;
but
becomes point one
what
distinguishing
it can influence
more difficult
of view, can
to establish.
European
also
argue
Italy: R Rami’rez
from
its
Thus, for example,
legislation
that
it
in its environment corresponds
it is part
of
to its
its contextual
environment. This
difficulty
ourselves methods
we
guarantors’
brought
to bear
in principle,
locating
The
with
of
intervention
techniques
the
coevolved
approach
we used:
(i) determined,
and limited
within
which
critical
(restrictive)
As ‘system and could
to address this difficulty,
I return
below.
It
‘midwives’
are not present
can
potentially
in
in the
generate
or
attempt
happen
between method
sometimes
several
the
we
used.”
make
‘systems’-based
defines
the
be exercised-the
adaptability,
all in providing
it
to
possible
safeguard
below
a the
in (iii);
the system that is being addressed,
the intervenors
(techniques
grounded
the approach
which
can
that is reviewed
within
times,
The
different
intellectual
approach between
specifications,‘8
to maximize
of our intervention will
compromising
of freedom
which
theoretical
to apply
theoretical
degrees
framework
‘systems’-based
of freedom
the conversation
critical
the actual
adapted,
without
itself to, minimal
as in the relationship
and the system
deployed,
without
activity
panic
or
during
and work anger,
the
plans)
when
the
happens;
the
‘guarantor’
consistency
of the
intervention
can imply
role
referred
intervention,
to above,
as well
both
in terms
of the
intellectual
of the
impact
which
as in terms
for the system and key actors within
it-this
the
helps ensure that
risks are taken by individuals, and wider sets of actors can be jointly assessed; and demands communicability and transparency-this means that methodology choices and changes
must be rendered
must be understood.
explicit,
The method
they must be testable
becomes
jointly
held,
which only the ‘experts’ have access. The advantage system actors co-own both method and results. Preparatory
in
its
and contestable,
rather than a ‘black
they
box’ into
is that after the intervention,
steps
It is impossible here
to locate
to be inside,
to which
by the
degrees
‘systems’-based
methodological
and consistency
unanticipated
offered
which
specifications
intervention-thus
(iv)
we found
system
method
intellectual
cohesiveness
grounds
the
be adapted; the
(ii) accepts that the unanticipated
(iii)
which
situation,
The
that could
techniques
be
to produce.
needed
problems
for considerable
initiative.
the
can
but
changing
theoretical
as well
practical
where
of designs for the system’s futures,
of the consistency
it provided
consistency
minimal
began
group
The solution
was
the systems-approach-based
in the designs we came to co-produce
to fit a rapidly
scope
which
which
‘country-system’
some
to date,
effect
was that
techniques
the
problem,
maps’)
others.
practical
approach
and
on
as ‘midwives’
as it has existed
co-generate
second
sense), our working posed
ourselves
the sense that key elements system
it the
the map of its own work.
elegant
entailed
with
(or ‘country-system
(in the Churchman
not be outside, while
brought
in the ‘maps’
to underestimate technical
sense
the ‘turbulence’ of
highly
of the system we addressed
complex,
unstable,
interrelations
-
meant between
243
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
components
which
interact
This environmental rules of the game holding ceased
to apply
whom
and influence
turbulence
the ‘country-system’
one
after another
we co-designed
the project
to their
roles,
bases of viability,
were
and causally
and even were
personal
working
themselves subjected address. They faced, term
as change urgencies
important,
was happening
issues. Thus, finding and even
In these circumstances, which
the courage
in effect carved
and created Richard
a transitional
Norman
Delegato
Railways-Ferrovie
dello
context
of a rapidly
‘clean-hands’ relevant
context, domain.
In the
with
The concrete
a wider working
strategists. system,
various
‘behind-the-lines
which
more
or
for the future
changing
environment.
of
analysed
here,
in this evolving
agenda
system within
to
of short-termism,
the actual
client
by Mr Lorenzo of
for
Necci,
the
Italian
business’
of his firm.
of Italy’s
railways
As
in the
The end of the Cold War,
situation
prosecutors
in the Balkans, were
we expanded
and the
transforming
the rules of the game context
the system
stages of the project.
CEO)
‘core
scenarios
Italian
in almost
our earlier
to addressing
focus,
the every from
that of the future
set of stakeholders. mode
From an initial
targeted
short
arguably
in an ocean
Officer,
efforts
initiative
remember,
in effect,
the changing
the EC was redefining
to
could
been engaged
deteriorating
the future of the railways
of the country military
while
they were
attempted
longer-term,
a client
became,
the rapidly
anti-corruption
geopolitical addressing
process,
the project
part of the initial
Executive
and fundamentally
East peace
which
analyse
several
the actors we
addressing,
in itself.
and ‘re-creating’
(Chief
mass of institutional
Because
anyone
over
fell
implies having outcomes. On
to make time in one’s fire-fighting
We had before
Stat+--to
part of this we had produced the Middle
priority
out an island of long-termism
and the author.
Administratore
way.
system we were
was an important
community22
as
as barriers to action
the critical
under
was significant
‘creating’
our efforts were engaging
This exercise
to obtain
faster than
to take
long-term
with
uncertainty
Directive correlation to produce common
to get the initiative
tended
and/or
counterparts
ever-increasing
to the various problematic issues which in short, what Ackoff*’ called a ‘mess’.
‘fire-fighting’
discuss the mid-
emerged. forces join
all part of the turbulent
Furthermore,
As the old
irrelevant,
futures.
more and more difficult
were
facing
in a very rich set of possibilities, driving
system.
weaker,
the institutional
themselves
correlation’20
commitment
with
the client
became
1992-93,
and actual
independent
the other hand it became
within
together
during
On the one hand this brought and new sources of ‘directive distinct
system behaviour.lg
was also manifest
obtained
in this first stage was akin to the ‘beach-head’ tenuous
but successful
the minimum
campaigns’
required
to enlarge
the
‘landing’ critical
mass of secured
beach-head
notion
in (an element in the
of
of) the interest,
system
were
launched. This enlargement of the beach-head sought to enhance the beach-head’s robustness, allowing the ‘held position’ in the targeted system to become an ever-more solid
‘operations’
‘reconnaissance and-forth
base. missions’
set of forays
In turn, behind
this
and robustness
These termed ‘engagement’.23 increasingly better appreciations
robustness
the enemy
is necessary
lines. The project
enhancement,
carried
‘engagements/incursions’
to support
more
serious
came to consist of a backout in the tradition into
the
system
Trist has allowed
of the system that was being analysed. robustness of the Indeed, following Ashby’s law of requisite variety, 24 the ever-increasing beach-head allowed it to address ever greater degrees of complexity in the system it
studied.
244
In seeing
that many
of the nature
relationships
and roles which
had held the system together
Reinventing
were
no longer
effective-and
of ‘re-invention’ who joined dello
the ‘beach-head’
Stato concerned
estate
often were
holdings
November
the relationship
activities,
hold
recently
looking
did,
Italian
accommodating
and/or
fighting
imported/foreign
tradition
calls ‘horizontal
relations-based
Putnam
the notion
we have today
roots for ‘systemicity’ ‘re-inventing’ somewhat From Lorenzo
Normann
present
and
Ramirez’s
system they were Necci’s Normann ocean
they were
extensive the
real
project
in
‘country
where
much
community’
systems.
of the North
which
Putnam’s
as
has a
corresponds
analyses
hundred
returning
system’,
past has to do with to
mean that
years, and that the
to a past which
had been
past.
perspective,
the
initial
Pietro Spirito,
work
in charge worked
‘landing’
permitting
we had carried
of strategic
marketing
on, and published,
the
out with
Mr
at Ferrovie
analyses
of the
in. perspective
and I had. For Necci
to establish
social
Both had previously
and Spirito’s
them
rule,
was thus the previous
CEO, and with
Stato (FS, hereafter).
of the Italian
civic
Baieti,
of Ferrovie
in the 1860 reunification.25
in parts of Italy for several
stages in Italy’s
of a ‘beach-head’
Necci,
coupled’
their
during
of the Mezzogiorno’s
does take the ‘re-’ part seriously,
lost at various
establishment dello
of ‘richly
were
really
history
that much
with
the idea
As Stefano
a subsidiary
recalled
it was itself ‘invented’
at the longer-term
one realizes
cities,
R Ramkez
to the system,
emerged.
that the railways,
with
Italy did not ‘emerge’,
In the same way,
countereffective
just ‘redesign’)
and who works for Metropolis,
early
with
and
1993,
Putnam26
indeed
of the system (and no longer
Italy:
is different
and Spirito,
an artificial
island
from,
Normann
(which
and compatible
and Ramirez
corresponded
in; this help came from outside
with,
that which
were a vehicle
to our
the system (ocean)
helping
‘beach-head’) of which
in the
they were a
part. The ‘external-internal’, head,
became
playing-manifested, working
context
in different
Ramirez
to the joint
language, terms, project
Comments working
document
relevant
time
help of two colleagues, developed again
on
summer
formally
and enhance
these
a similar several
forced
working
but they did precede
from
between
island and beach-
role that the project
to use English,
‘insiders’ initiated
documents
the robustness
to rethink
‘others’
and again.
as such,
saw itself as
rather than Italian, their
were
the
that Necci,
own
system
as the and its
project
to proceed
incorporated
On the outside
in Finland, The
to refine
process
lasted
took to others In retrospect
first ‘engagements/incursions’
agreement side,
Normann-Ramirez with whom
the working from
basis.
drafts of the enlisted
the
they had earlier
documents
winter
in
these into its
on a project
into subsequent
Frank af Petersens and Rachel Amato,
occasions.
Necci-Spirito-Normannnotably,
of the beach-head.
as the project’s the formal
accordingly,
1992-1993
until
early
1993.
In honing down the systems approach Normann-Ramirez were helped by Merrelyn (systems
a dialectic
literally. being
efforts can be considered
target system,
dialectic,
in the ‘midwifing’
in the decision
which
team developed
the system to enlarge pre-project
element
for instance,
project’s Prior
‘outside-in’
an important
analysis
and
redesign)
process
that they brought to bear on the project, and Fred Emery, who had run a wide search
in Australia.
Necci
and Spirit0
brought
to the
project ‘four challenges for Italy’, namely the moral, institutional, public finances, and productivity challenges, which had been a pivotal part of Necci’s most recent book on Italy?’ The four built the working documents not only on the four challenges and the systems approach
they
had each brought,
but also on earlier
outline
scenarios
for Italy’s
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
futures
which
These ‘across’
the
‘domains’ make l
they had jointly
internal
inside-outside
(in the Trist,
‘new industrial
interorganizational
ecology
of the project. following
the ‘urban’
domain;
and
l
the ‘public
services’
domain.
These domains
are crucial
substantial
elements
nature
A ‘supervisory not limited
l
l
l
or systems sense of the term**)
three would
were:
logics for innovators’
research
project
of FS. Here we can see that the nature of
relevant
group’
organization,
of relevant
to members
‘own’,
‘stand for’,
Under
this supervisory
Necci
and Richard
multiple
‘others’
of institutions
and promote group,
interests,
came to be reflected
in the
levels of responsibility
in Italy was created. financing
the project.
were
set:
These included Their
but were
role was to guide,
the initiative. and included
in it, were
the project
leaders,
Lorenzo
Normann.
Under
this
helped
in this task by Pietro
A project
integrated that
of the project.
In terms of the project l
were view
and published;*’
in the work
including
they
to a common
These three domains
had produced
composition,
and the way led
on the ‘business
and Ramirez
l
the ‘beach-head’s’
systems,
eventually
logics’,
Normann
for FS.
feedback
boundary,
up the substance
which
developed
and external
project
secretary
leadership, reporting
Rafael
Ramirez
provided
methodological
support,
Spirito. to the project
managers,
Margherita
Vaglio,
an employee
of FS, was also appointed. l
Under
the
project
leaders,
Mastruobono
coordinated
welfare/public
services
Paolo
Celentani,
Temporal a broad
and resource
resulting
decrease
its robustness. ‘idealized partly
because
democratic partly
in-diverting above
methodology
longish
In the following
that was actually
appointed: Pietro
by Pietro
Luigi
Spirit0
the
Spirit0
and
the desired
Italy’s
which
stakeholders
with the
sections
among
variety,
workshops
first elections
to carry
Ciampi
the new level;
government accordingly.
to those
meant that the project
of the article,
I outline,
and
engaged
several factors in addition
consequently
out
reasons,
under
it, at the municipal
The
affecting
because of the above
from the project
up and agreed-but which
requisite
residential
with
participation
by the Emerys in Australia.
partly
had brought
privatizations
delay,
helped
the project’s
(three-day)
in time
of relevant
led to an initial
to obtain
decreased
coincided of
were
domain,
Mosetti,
as had been done
the referendum
wave
groups
urban
sense were not viable,
plan was then drawn
had to be altered.
Umberto
diversity
in the Ackoff
the priorities
A project outlined
in mobilized
first
the
limits made it impossible
the project
the
research
on
logics domain.
of stakeholders,
system which
with
and
industrial
In the same way,
design’
domain
work
domain,
the new
cross-section
three the
in ‘nine
method
steps’,
the
followed.
Project methodology Step 1 In the first step, which creation of the domain
246
really concluded the preparation structure, the project managers
phase, and which preceded the refined the preliminary scenario
Reinvenfing
work
out for FS.
we had carried In particular,
‘dimensions’
we did this
(which distinguish
through
revising
of the scenario
to each of the four scenarios. This
became
document of the project.
We also confirmed the overall methodological 1. This
the meaningfulness
one scenario from another), and related each of the four
challenges for Italy in Necci and Gerstenfled3’ the first working
Italy:R Ramirer
approach, which is depicted in Figure
‘method map’ grounded all the subsequent steps of the project, and became a sort
of graphical referent for our work.
Step 2 In the second step, we took the working scenarios from FS scenario initiative Our domains, services’
discussions
document from step one, and adapted the draft
to fit the project.
here led to our finalizing
our agreement on the nature of the
where ‘education’ was not included as a fourth separate domain; and ‘public was extended
to include
for the ‘welfare state’. The domains were
the futures
agreed to overlap with each other on crucial issues such as employment legislative
key
frameworks,
institutions
(eg regional
v national
and immigration, ones),
etc.
These
‘overlapping’ issues among domains we would treat as ‘results’ of the domain work, not as ‘independent’
variables.
The
gamble which
we made in taking this
decision
(whose
‘safety’ is supported by experience of designed futures) was that a considerable amount of agreement on such cross-domain correct. The inter-domain
relationships
of attack’ (to follow our militaristic overlap among domains,
Past events & forces shapingthe present ve
issues would be obtained. This,
on the whole,
proved
thus looked as depicted in Figure 2, where the ‘angle metaphors) would be ‘outsidedin’;
and particularly
meaning that the
the ‘triple overlap’ at the centre (which
Concreteactionsto move as close as possibleto desired future Presentsituation ‘Domain’
is
Idealand viable (desired)future
1
I
Probablefuture ’ if no action
;o
Figure
1.
247
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
Figure 2.
important in systems terms) would be the ‘end-point’, and not the ‘starting point’, of our work. The futures consequently
for each of the three domains,
look as per figure
scenario a s-10 scenano c see
Figure 3.
248
in each of the four scenarios,
3.
b
would
Reinventing
Italy: R Ramirer
Step 3 In this third
step, the domains’
scopes
were
developed
with
the three
several supervisory group members, and several researchers. The domains were then analysed in terms of how their relevant their current existed
today.
developed which
state, allowing This
us to elicit
approach
by the Emerys,
usually
enriches
was
albeit,
the ‘driving
adapted
from
forces’ the
as we have seen, without
such an appreciation.
histories
responsible
search
domain
had shaped
for the domain
conference
the wider
This is graphically
leaders,
as it
methodology
set of participation
depicted
in figure
4.
Step 4 In this fourth
step, the project
developed
four distinct
futures,
one for each scenario,
for
each of the three domains. This is a ‘typical’
scenario
by each of the three domains possible
ways
in which
for discontinuities direction, distinct
relative
but internally
FS scenario to work
combinations
in the causal
and/or
in the project
development
group’s outlines
activity,
in step 3) on the driving of these-and
texture
strengths
futures.
learning,
as the domain
meant
system
forces)-can
allowed
in terms of the three domains
making
in (four)
‘feedback’
us to ‘check’
that the project
to up
the nature,
themselves
a crucial
(done
leading
events
(eg changing
manifest
This step in effect entailed development
research
the present,
new forces and/or
of the domain
of driving
coherent really
based on preliminary forces shaping
loop
what the
had chosen
on.
This step is graphically
depicted
in Figures 5 and 6.
Step 5 In the fifth step we backcast the past shaping
from the (future) scenarios
these present-future
links.
to the present,
Backcasting3’
allows
and indeed one to outline
revisited which
This step
oncrete actions to love as close as xsible to desired
Ideal and viable
Past events a forces
shapingthe Present
Presentsituati
Figure 4.
249
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
this step
Figure 5.
elements
of the present
are the most salient/crucial,
(rather than the present’s
or past’s) point
is based on Giambattista
Vito’s
‘reality’
and the notion
of what
factum,
implies
Inasmuch realities,
that whatever
observations3* has already
to the past allowed
domain 1
the least, from the future’s this to the past
on the link,
in Latin, between
the notion
been
the word
derived
done:
of this project the project
the past that may not have the same formative
team to identify
domain 2
‘fact’,
of
from
is not (yet?) real. to deal with
importance
Figure 6.
250
and which
The reason for extending
has not yet been done
as it was the purpose
backcasting
of view.
possible
(future)
salient elements
in the present,
domain 3
Italian from
from our current
Reinventing
point
of view.
point
of view
Nevertheless,
these elements
of the future
in question.
could
come
Italy: R Ramirez
to be seen as critical
3.3 This step is graphically
depicted
from the
in figure
7.
Step 6 In this sixth step we did something chose
one
scenario
‘cartographers
of
destination.34
the
in Necci
and
(rather than imposing social
responsibility
enhancing
Italy’s
enabling
future’
scenario;
which
the others.
The normative
least wanted which
over
to
one
choice
as well
is not easy to do: we became
The role of
made35
view
homogenized
and good
citizenship,
exceptional fit with
guide’
best fitting
valuing
creative
and
emerging
value
an Italian
of Italy:
existing
creation
a
one of
particular
cultural ‘software’
logics.-‘6
to the
identity
of Italy
integrating
entrepreneurial
innovative
and we
from
to the ‘best antidote’ with
the ‘best’
blueprint),
normative
here changed recommending
corresponded
embodies
a single
an enhanced
‘tour
as a scenario
Normann’s
of the team
diversity
flair coupled and civic
with
patrimony,
capacities,
and
best
See Figure 8.
Step 7 The seventh, one,
institutional
in effect
implies
scenario
coming
variable,
but
design
about.
The
a dependent
choices
and interorganizational
relevant
certainties
scenario
took account
inherent
in the scenario.
as well
considered
associated
as those
As someone
on which
are undertaken. with
which
are
no longer policy,
trouble-free;
it is the least bad of the options
normative
of the chosen an independent
institutional
design
These fully take into account
the scenarios;
both those which
scenario-dependent.
costs, of the risks involved, in the project
the sixth,
the possibility
is therefore
depends
activities
that follows
enhancing
scenario
which
of the opportunity
in the sense of its being
relation
chosen
one
and uncertainties
scenario-independent,
‘ideal’
step of our approach
a cause-effect
are
chosen
and of the advantages
team put it, the chosen
it is chosen,
The
the
scenario
in a sense, because
is not
all things
available.
the back-casting step
Figure 7.
251
Reinventing
Italy:
R Ramirez
choiceof ideal scenario
Pastevents& forces shapingthe present
Presentsituation ‘Domain’
v
;o
Figure 8.
In this seventh scenario,
step we adapted
identifying
scenario
come
Ackoff’s
institution-building
about.
These
choices
were
sense, but also in the negative/containment events
which
could
lead
the
future
idealized
designs guided
which
design
not only
sense of addressing towards
the
three
method3’
would
for the chosen
best make
the
chosen
in the positive/reinforcing driving
forces and possible
unwanted
scenarios
if not
so
checked.
Step 8 The eighth to bring
step outlined
the idealized
actors and on short-term
the designs designs
in step 7 in the form of concrete
in step 7 to fruition.
measures,
graphically
action
These steps were
depicted
in figure
plans to begin
focused
on Italian
9.
Step 9 providing the basis Step 9 went beyond the project as it had been scoped and developed, It consists of a set of for ensuring that it became viable after the project itself terminated. proposed action research initiatives to analyse experimentally the viability of the project’s recommendations as per steps l-8, loosely based on Pava’s normative incrementalist planning
approach.38
Conclusions Three traditions in futures-centred systems thinking were integrated and adapted into the single project described in this paper: (a) the scenarios-based one developed at Stanford Research
252
International,
at Shell’s
Group
Planning
Unit,
at the Global
Business
Network
Reinventing
Italy:
R Ramirez
This step
I
Concrete actions to I move as close as
Past events & forces shaping the present
Figure 9. and at SMG,
the Swedish-based
consultancy
which
mode developed by the Emerys
in Australia,
and then by Trist
Canada and North America,
Normann
founded; (b) the ‘search’ and colleagues
in both
and (c) the ‘idealized design’ mode pioneered by Ackoff. The
project attempted to do this with a country as the system to be planned for, facing the problems which adapting intervention
strategies originating
around the planning for single
organizations entails. The overall result of this effort can be appreciated in the book Re-inventing L Necci
ha/y by
and R Normann,
methodological
where an earlier version of this article appears as a appendix. The book is in itself a further effort to widen the conversation
between the initial the richness initiative
members of the initiative
of the conversation
which
and a wider set of stakeholders,
to enhance
is at the core of the methodology
which
the
evolved.
The inside-outside
dialetic method on which the initiative was based proved to be an
effective way to address the ‘mess’ which Italy’s futures pose for Italy today. The utilization
of a non-native
capacity of actors within thinking
language in the initiative
the system to treat the initiative
about Italy in explicit further
transitional
community:
English is very different from relating to it in implicit
If the production of a book was the culmination existence,
very much supported the
as a transitional
communities,
of this first transitional
with longer timespans
activate, and in so doing adapt and even redefine the conclusions called for.
Italian.
community’s
and who will
refine,
of this first one, are now
Notes and references 1.
An earlier Normann,
version of this article appeared as R Ramirez, Reinventare I’ltalia (Milan, Mondadori, 1994).
‘Appendice
Metodologica’
in L Necci
and R
253
Reinventing
2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17.
18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29.
30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39.
254
Italy:
R Ramirez
L Necci and M Gerstenfeld, Rivalutare I’ltalia (Milano, Sperling and Kupfer, 1992). T Ruokanen and A Nurmio, Suomija mahdolliset maailmat (Helsinki, SITRA-WSOY, 1995). D Morley and R Ramirez, ‘Food for the future of Mexico: an action learning perspective’, Occasional Paper No 1 (York University Action Learning Group, January 1983). F Sagasti, P Patron, N Lynch and M Herndndez, Democracia y ken Gobierno: froyecto Agenda: Perti (Lima, Editorial Apoyo, 1994). A d’Auvergne, D Morley, P Victor and P Wilkinson, ‘Alternative environment and development strategies for St Lucia’, paper given at the Sixth Commonwealth Conference on Human Ecology and Development, ‘Planning with People’, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, 26 May 1981; D Morley, ‘Applied geography as action research: the St Lucia energy futures project’, Geographical Research Forum, 6, September 1983. P Spies, ‘Experience with futures research in South Africa’, Futures, 26(V), Nov 1994. B Ekman et al, Sweden in Reconstruction, unpublished report (Stockholm, SIFO, 1994). T Rojo: ‘Scenarios for the industrialization of the western Mediterranean’, Futures, 26(5), June 1994. P Feyerabend, Against Method (Thetford Press, 1975; and London, Verso, 1978). F E Emery and E L Trist, ‘The causal texture of organizational environments’, Human Relations, 18, 1965; W E Smith, ‘A power framework for project management’, PMnetwork, August 1991. M Emery and F E Emery, ‘Searching: for new directions, in new ways... for new times’, in j W Sutherland (editor), Management Handbook for Public Administrators (New York, Van Nostrand, 1978). P Wack, ‘Scenarios: “Shooting the rapids”‘, Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dee 1985; P Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York, Currency Doubleday 1991). R Ackoff Redesigning the Future (New York, Wiley, 1974). C W Churchman, The Systems Approach and its Enemies (New York, Basic Books, 1993). The concept was provided by Stefano Baieti of Metropolis, a subsidiary of Ferrovie dello Stato. See G Morgan (editor), Beyond Method: Strategies for Social Research (Beverley Hills, CA, Sage, 1993), and W Foote Whyte, Learning From The Field: A Guide from Experience (Beverley Hills, CA, Sage, 1994), for illustrations on grounded theory methods. P Herbst, Sociotechnical Design (London, Tavistock, 1974). Emery and Trist, op tit, reference 11 G Sommerhoff, Analytical Biology (Oxford University Press, 1950). Ackoff, op tit, reference 14. G Amado and A Ambrose (editors), The Transitional Approach to the Management of Change (San Francisco, CA, forthcoming). E L Trist and H Murray (editors), The Social Engagement of Social Science (Philadelphia, PA, University of Pennsylvania Press, 1990). W R Ashby, ‘Self-regulation and requisite variety’, in F E Emery (editor), Systems Thinking (New York, Penguin, 1983). In R D Putnam, Making Democracy Work (Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, lVVl), one finds estimates which establish that less than 10% of Italians spoke Italian at the time Italy was created. Ibid. Necci and Cerstenfled, op tit, reference 2. E L Trist, ‘Referent organizations and the development of inter-organizational domains’, Human Relations, 36(3), 1983. R Normann and R Ramirez, ‘A theory of the offering: a step towards a post-industrial business strategy’, in C Snow (editor) (editor), Strategy, Organization Design, and Human Resource Management (Greenwich, CT, JAI Press, 1988); R Norman and R Ramirez, ‘From value chain to value constellation: designing interactive strategy’, Harvard Business Review, July-August 1993; see also R Normann and R Ramirez, Designing interactive Strategy: From Value Chain to Value Constellation (Chichester, Wiley, 1994). Necci and Gerstenfeld, op tit, reference 2. R Ramirez and L Gatignol, Backcasting When Forecasting Is Not Reliable, Proceedings, Brussels Seminar on Marketing and International Research (Amsterdam, ESOMAR Publications,l993). C Vito, De /‘antique sagesse de I’ltalie (1710, translated by Jules Michelet, 1835) (Paris, Flamarion, 1993). See also: F E Emery, Futures We Are In (Leiden, Martinus Nijhoff, 1967); and F E Emery, ‘The next thirty years: concepts, methods, and anticipations’, Human Relations, 20, 1967. See Necci and Normann, op tit, reference 1. /bid, pages 167- 177. Normann and Ramirez, op tit, reference 29. Ackoff, op tit, reference 14. C Pava, Towards a Concept of Normative Incrementaalism, unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1979. Necci and Normann, op tit, reference 1.
Pergamon
Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 241-254,
1996
Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed m Great Britain. All rights reserved 0016-3287196 $15.00 + 0.00
SO01 6-3287(96)00004-3
REINVENTING ITALY: METHODOLOGlCAL CHALLENGES Rafael Ramirez
This article reviews a struggle to bring in futures-centred systems thinking into present complexities inherited from the past. This thinking is meant to inform actions that better obtain conditions for system viability in light of high degrees of uncertainty. A number of theoretical and practical challenges are analysed, allowing the description to be usable in other, similar situations. Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd
This article’
reviews
Italy to address pertaining
to
productivity,2
a methodology
its future.
(a) its moralilty, in addition
it and its possible This initiative
article
Sweden,’ reviews
all in keeping The normative
to the enhanced
fits the category or Algeria
the project
which
in 1993 to enable four challenges
finances,
a changing
and
context
(d) its
posed for
position
research
initiatives
the futures of Finland,’
in the context
thus evolved
evolved
countrywide
Peru,5 St Lucia,’
western
standpoint. centred
addressing
Mexico,4
of an evolving
aims, the project
which
evolving
identity
of futures
In doing
so, it outlines
these into a normative on avoiding
aspects of Italy considered
enhance
This how,
standpoint.
the worst
to jointly
South
Mediterranean.’
possibilities, the viability
of
and sustainability. described
here emerged
in a number
of joint
meetings
over several
That this description
Feyerabend’s ‘natural’
launched
to be facing
(c) its public
uncertainty
from a methodological
with the initial
The methodology months.
considered
futures.
and on strengthening the country’s
in an initiative
(b) its institutions,
systems, such as those addressing Africa,’
utilized
Italy was at that time
analyses
sciences,
is made after the method was used is not unusual at all: as many scientifically rigorous methods in the ‘hard’ or show,”
supposed
to be prescriptive,
have
in fact come
to be recognized
(as
methods) ex post. In the same way, the methodology presented here, which can be adapted for prescriptive purposes in other project settings, was in the project in question something which could only be described post facto. The reason is that several ‘on-line
Dr Rafael Ramirez is Associate Professor of Management (Tel. +33 1 3967 7304; fax: +33 1 3967 7088).
at Groupe
HEC,
78351
Joy-en-Josas,
France.
241
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
constraints’, taken
which
into account
occasions.
The
articulated limited l
overall
around
in unanticipated
methodological
the ‘systems
ways
as the project
and these forced approach
design’
was
and ‘futures
emerged,
had to be
us to adapt the method grounded
studies’
in
traditions,
on several
systems
theory,
including
but not
to:
contextual ‘search
l
appeared
as we proceeded,
(‘factor’)
and transactional
conference’12
‘idealized
design’14
distinction
from
‘actor’-‘environment’ the ‘actor’
environment”
examinations
modes;
as well
in both the
as the
of organizations.
The contextual’-‘transactional’ can be appreciated
(‘actor’)
and in the ‘scenario-building’13
those
boundary
boundary)
from
which
separates
aspects
can be influenced
in turn distinguishes
those which
of the environment
by the actors
aspects which
are influenced
(beyond
which
concerned.
are controlled
the ‘actor’
The (within
boundary)
by
the actor. Search conferences transactional contextual
each other
without
futures
reaching
is then searched
within
(history,
the actor system as well
interests
closure.
for, ending
as in its
etc) and the factors
Common
ground
in the drawing
in the
for
together
viable
of common
plans.
Scenario to discern redefine future
how stakeholders
view
environment,
inter-stakeholder action
review
environment
building
possible
identifies
past and current
discontinuities
in this causal
later states of the system. states of the system
A small
Idealized contrasted
of technical
with
the current,
realism
and
actual
system.
which
actions
coherent,
best allowing
The
for moving
possible
The method
the system to prepare
would
viability.
Actions
and attempts fundamentally
themselves).
stakeholders
economic
could
internally
(the ‘scenarios’
design draws out the system which
limits
forces of a system,
set of distinct,
are then developed
then enables participants to draw up present for or address these possible futures. within
driving
architecture
ideally joint
like to exist,
design
is then
from one to the other
are
then developed. ‘Grounding’ us to deploy
the initiative
techniques
the method
coevolved
‘guarantor’
of the initiative’s
the overall
approach,while
thinking.
In particular,
and ensuring broken while
down
given
organization
adaptable
Within
element
and adapting,
allowing
task was to act as
1979 sense,15 ensuring
remained
politics
be considered
consistency,
the systems framework,
in the author’s
in Churchman’s
disallowing
addressed
gave it intellectual
conditions.
A central
‘system-icity’,
this entailed
into analysed
interorganizational, analysis-‘scenarios’
to fit evolving
with the project.
that elements
Two particularly the ‘search
on systems theory
flexibly
consistent
from diverting
in wider
with
that
systemic
away from policy,
contexts,
rather than simply
elements.
interesting challenges were addressed in this ‘guarantor’ role. First, conference’ approach is ‘domain-based’-that is, inherently with no single organization being at the ‘centre’ of the and ‘idealized (eg corporation
design’
have typically
or government
addressed
department).
the futures of a single
Given
that we were
analysing possible futures for a ‘country-system’,‘6 the single organizational usually anchors these methods was unavailable. The neat separation between
referent ‘factors’
here that and
‘actors’ distinguishing the contextual and transactional environments from each other that the single organizational point of view offers was less than straightforward when considering the environment from the point of view of a country as a whole. When the
242
Reinventing
system
that
is
environment
being
considered
is more complex,
and what
it can merely
one can argue transactional
is
multiorganizational,
and differentiating
appreciate
that from
Italy’s
environment;
but
becomes point one
what
distinguishing
it can influence
more difficult
of view, can
to establish.
European
also
argue
Italy: R Rami’rez
from
its
Thus, for example,
legislation
that
it
in its environment corresponds
it is part
of
to its
its contextual
environment. This
difficulty
ourselves methods
we
guarantors’
brought
to bear
in principle,
locating
The
with
of
intervention
techniques
the
coevolved
approach
we used:
(i) determined,
and limited
within
which
critical
(restrictive)
As ‘system and could
to address this difficulty,
I return
below.
It
‘midwives’
are not present
can
potentially
in
in the
generate
or
attempt
happen
between method
sometimes
several
the
we
used.”
make
‘systems’-based
defines
the
be exercised-the
adaptability,
all in providing
it
to
possible
safeguard
below
a the
in (iii);
the system that is being addressed,
the intervenors
(techniques
grounded
the approach
which
can
that is reviewed
within
times,
The
different
intellectual
approach between
specifications,‘8
to maximize
of our intervention will
compromising
of freedom
which
theoretical
to apply
theoretical
degrees
framework
‘systems’-based
of freedom
the conversation
critical
the actual
adapted,
without
itself to, minimal
as in the relationship
and the system
deployed,
without
activity
panic
or
during
and work anger,
the
plans)
when
the
happens;
the
‘guarantor’
consistency
of the
intervention
can imply
role
referred
intervention,
to above,
as well
both
in terms
of the
intellectual
of the
impact
which
as in terms
for the system and key actors within
it-this
the
helps ensure that
risks are taken by individuals, and wider sets of actors can be jointly assessed; and demands communicability and transparency-this means that methodology choices and changes
must be rendered
must be understood.
explicit,
The method
they must be testable
becomes
jointly
held,
which only the ‘experts’ have access. The advantage system actors co-own both method and results. Preparatory
in
its
and contestable,
rather than a ‘black
they
box’ into
is that after the intervention,
steps
It is impossible here
to locate
to be inside,
to which
by the
degrees
‘systems’-based
methodological
and consistency
unanticipated
offered
which
specifications
intervention-thus
(iv)
we found
system
method
intellectual
cohesiveness
grounds
the
be adapted; the
(ii) accepts that the unanticipated
(iii)
which
situation,
The
that could
techniques
be
to produce.
needed
problems
for considerable
initiative.
the
can
but
changing
theoretical
as well
practical
where
of designs for the system’s futures,
of the consistency
it provided
consistency
minimal
began
group
The solution
was
the systems-approach-based
in the designs we came to co-produce
to fit a rapidly
scope
which
which
‘country-system’
some
to date,
effect
was that
techniques
the
problem,
maps’)
others.
practical
approach
and
on
as ‘midwives’
as it has existed
co-generate
second
sense), our working posed
ourselves
the sense that key elements system
it the
the map of its own work.
elegant
entailed
with
(or ‘country-system
(in the Churchman
not be outside, while
brought
in the ‘maps’
to underestimate technical
sense
the ‘turbulence’ of
highly
of the system we addressed
complex,
unstable,
interrelations
-
meant between
243
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
components
which
interact
This environmental rules of the game holding ceased
to apply
whom
and influence
turbulence
the ‘country-system’
one
after another
we co-designed
the project
to their
roles,
bases of viability,
were
and causally
and even were
personal
working
themselves subjected address. They faced, term
as change urgencies
important,
was happening
issues. Thus, finding and even
In these circumstances, which
the courage
in effect carved
and created Richard
a transitional
Norman
Delegato
Railways-Ferrovie
dello
context
of a rapidly
‘clean-hands’ relevant
context, domain.
In the
with
The concrete
a wider working
strategists. system,
various
‘behind-the-lines
which
more
or
for the future
changing
environment.
of
analysed
here,
in this evolving
agenda
system within
to
of short-termism,
the actual
client
by Mr Lorenzo of
for
Necci,
the
Italian
business’
of his firm.
of Italy’s
railways
As
in the
The end of the Cold War,
situation
prosecutors
in the Balkans, were
we expanded
and the
transforming
the rules of the game context
the system
stages of the project.
CEO)
‘core
scenarios
Italian
in almost
our earlier
to addressing
focus,
the every from
that of the future
set of stakeholders. mode
From an initial
targeted
short
arguably
in an ocean
Officer,
efforts
initiative
remember,
in effect,
the changing
the EC was redefining
to
could
been engaged
deteriorating
the future of the railways
of the country military
while
they were
attempted
longer-term,
a client
became,
the rapidly
anti-corruption
geopolitical addressing
process,
the project
part of the initial
Executive
and fundamentally
East peace
which
analyse
several
the actors we
addressing,
in itself.
and ‘re-creating’
(Chief
mass of institutional
Because
anyone
over
fell
implies having outcomes. On
to make time in one’s fire-fighting
We had before
Stat+--to
part of this we had produced the Middle
priority
out an island of long-termism
and the author.
Administratore
way.
system we were
was an important
community22
as
as barriers to action
the critical
under
was significant
‘creating’
our efforts were engaging
This exercise
to obtain
faster than
to take
long-term
with
uncertainty
Directive correlation to produce common
to get the initiative
tended
and/or
counterparts
ever-increasing
to the various problematic issues which in short, what Ackoff*’ called a ‘mess’.
‘fire-fighting’
discuss the mid-
emerged. forces join
all part of the turbulent
Furthermore,
As the old
irrelevant,
futures.
more and more difficult
were
facing
in a very rich set of possibilities, driving
system.
weaker,
the institutional
themselves
correlation’20
commitment
with
the client
became
1992-93,
and actual
independent
the other hand it became
within
together
during
On the one hand this brought and new sources of ‘directive distinct
system behaviour.lg
was also manifest
obtained
in this first stage was akin to the ‘beach-head’ tenuous
but successful
the minimum
campaigns’
required
to enlarge
the
‘landing’ critical
mass of secured
beach-head
notion
in (an element in the
of
of) the interest,
system
were
launched. This enlargement of the beach-head sought to enhance the beach-head’s robustness, allowing the ‘held position’ in the targeted system to become an ever-more solid
‘operations’
‘reconnaissance and-forth
base. missions’
set of forays
In turn, behind
this
and robustness
These termed ‘engagement’.23 increasingly better appreciations
robustness
the enemy
is necessary
lines. The project
enhancement,
carried
‘engagements/incursions’
to support
more
serious
came to consist of a backout in the tradition into
the
system
Trist has allowed
of the system that was being analysed. robustness of the Indeed, following Ashby’s law of requisite variety, 24 the ever-increasing beach-head allowed it to address ever greater degrees of complexity in the system it
studied.
244
In seeing
that many
of the nature
relationships
and roles which
had held the system together
Reinventing
were
no longer
effective-and
of ‘re-invention’ who joined dello
the ‘beach-head’
Stato concerned
estate
often were
holdings
November
the relationship
activities,
hold
recently
looking
did,
Italian
accommodating
and/or
fighting
imported/foreign
tradition
calls ‘horizontal
relations-based
Putnam
the notion
we have today
roots for ‘systemicity’ ‘re-inventing’ somewhat From Lorenzo
Normann
present
and
Ramirez’s
system they were Necci’s Normann ocean
they were
extensive the
real
project
in
‘country
where
much
community’
systems.
of the North
which
Putnam’s
as
has a
corresponds
analyses
hundred
returning
system’,
past has to do with to
mean that
years, and that the
to a past which
had been
past.
perspective,
the
initial
Pietro Spirito,
work
in charge worked
‘landing’
permitting
we had carried
of strategic
marketing
on, and published,
the
out with
Mr
at Ferrovie
analyses
of the
in. perspective
and I had. For Necci
to establish
social
Both had previously
and Spirito’s
them
rule,
was thus the previous
CEO, and with
Stato (FS, hereafter).
of the Italian
civic
Baieti,
of Ferrovie
in the 1860 reunification.25
in parts of Italy for several
stages in Italy’s
of a ‘beach-head’
Necci,
coupled’
their
during
of the Mezzogiorno’s
does take the ‘re-’ part seriously,
lost at various
establishment dello
of ‘richly
were
really
history
that much
with
the idea
As Stefano
a subsidiary
recalled
it was itself ‘invented’
at the longer-term
one realizes
cities,
R Ramkez
to the system,
emerged.
that the railways,
with
Italy did not ‘emerge’,
In the same way,
countereffective
just ‘redesign’)
and who works for Metropolis,
early
with
and
1993,
Putnam26
indeed
of the system (and no longer
Italy:
is different
and Spirito,
an artificial
island
from,
Normann
(which
and compatible
and Ramirez
corresponded
in; this help came from outside
with,
that which
were a vehicle
to our
the system (ocean)
helping
‘beach-head’) of which
in the
they were a
part. The ‘external-internal’, head,
became
playing-manifested, working
context
in different
Ramirez
to the joint
language, terms, project
Comments working
document
relevant
time
help of two colleagues, developed again
on
summer
formally
and enhance
these
a similar several
forced
working
but they did precede
from
between
island and beach-
role that the project
to use English,
‘insiders’ initiated
documents
the robustness
to rethink
‘others’
and again.
as such,
saw itself as
rather than Italian, their
were
the
that Necci,
own
system
as the and its
project
to proceed
incorporated
On the outside
in Finland, The
to refine
process
lasted
took to others In retrospect
first ‘engagements/incursions’
agreement side,
Normann-Ramirez with whom
the working from
basis.
drafts of the enlisted
the
they had earlier
documents
winter
in
these into its
on a project
into subsequent
Frank af Petersens and Rachel Amato,
occasions.
Necci-Spirito-Normannnotably,
of the beach-head.
as the project’s the formal
accordingly,
1992-1993
until
early
1993.
In honing down the systems approach Normann-Ramirez were helped by Merrelyn (systems
a dialectic
literally. being
efforts can be considered
target system,
dialectic,
in the ‘midwifing’
in the decision
which
team developed
the system to enlarge pre-project
element
for instance,
project’s Prior
‘outside-in’
an important
analysis
and
redesign)
process
that they brought to bear on the project, and Fred Emery, who had run a wide search
in Australia.
Necci
and Spirit0
brought
to the
project ‘four challenges for Italy’, namely the moral, institutional, public finances, and productivity challenges, which had been a pivotal part of Necci’s most recent book on Italy?’ The four built the working documents not only on the four challenges and the systems approach
they
had each brought,
but also on earlier
outline
scenarios
for Italy’s
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
futures
which
These ‘across’
the
‘domains’ make l
they had jointly
internal
inside-outside
(in the Trist,
‘new industrial
interorganizational
ecology
of the project. following
the ‘urban’
domain;
and
l
the ‘public
services’
domain.
These domains
are crucial
substantial
elements
nature
A ‘supervisory not limited
l
l
l
or systems sense of the term**)
three would
were:
logics for innovators’
research
project
of FS. Here we can see that the nature of
relevant
group’
organization,
of relevant
to members
‘own’,
‘stand for’,
Under
this supervisory
Necci
and Richard
multiple
‘others’
of institutions
and promote group,
interests,
came to be reflected
in the
levels of responsibility
in Italy was created. financing
the project.
were
set:
These included Their
but were
role was to guide,
the initiative. and included
in it, were
the project
leaders,
Lorenzo
Normann.
Under
this
helped
in this task by Pietro
A project
integrated that
of the project.
In terms of the project l
were view
and published;*’
in the work
including
they
to a common
These three domains
had produced
composition,
and the way led
on the ‘business
and Ramirez
l
the ‘beach-head’s’
systems,
eventually
logics’,
Normann
for FS.
feedback
boundary,
up the substance
which
developed
and external
project
secretary
leadership, reporting
Rafael
Ramirez
provided
methodological
support,
Spirito. to the project
managers,
Margherita
Vaglio,
an employee
of FS, was also appointed. l
Under
the
project
leaders,
Mastruobono
coordinated
welfare/public
services
Paolo
Celentani,
Temporal a broad
and resource
resulting
decrease
its robustness. ‘idealized partly
because
democratic partly
in-diverting above
methodology
longish
In the following
that was actually
appointed: Pietro
by Pietro
Luigi
Spirit0
the
Spirit0
and
the desired
Italy’s
which
stakeholders
with the
sections
among
variety,
workshops
first elections
to carry
Ciampi
the new level;
government accordingly.
to those
meant that the project
of the article,
I outline,
and
engaged
several factors in addition
consequently
out
reasons,
under
it, at the municipal
The
affecting
because of the above
from the project
up and agreed-but which
requisite
residential
with
participation
by the Emerys in Australia.
partly
had brought
privatizations
delay,
helped
the project’s
(three-day)
in time
of relevant
led to an initial
to obtain
decreased
coincided of
were
domain,
Mosetti,
as had been done
the referendum
wave
groups
urban
sense were not viable,
plan was then drawn
had to be altered.
Umberto
diversity
in the Ackoff
the priorities
A project outlined
in mobilized
first
the
limits made it impossible
the project
the
research
on
logics domain.
of stakeholders,
system which
with
and
industrial
In the same way,
design’
domain
work
domain,
the new
cross-section
three the
in ‘nine
method
steps’,
the
followed.
Project methodology Step 1 In the first step, which creation of the domain
246
really concluded the preparation structure, the project managers
phase, and which preceded the refined the preliminary scenario
Reinvenfing
work
out for FS.
we had carried In particular,
‘dimensions’
we did this
(which distinguish
through
revising
of the scenario
to each of the four scenarios. This
became
document of the project.
We also confirmed the overall methodological 1. This
the meaningfulness
one scenario from another), and related each of the four
challenges for Italy in Necci and Gerstenfled3’ the first working
Italy:R Ramirer
approach, which is depicted in Figure
‘method map’ grounded all the subsequent steps of the project, and became a sort
of graphical referent for our work.
Step 2 In the second step, we took the working scenarios from FS scenario initiative Our domains, services’
discussions
document from step one, and adapted the draft
to fit the project.
here led to our finalizing
our agreement on the nature of the
where ‘education’ was not included as a fourth separate domain; and ‘public was extended
to include
for the ‘welfare state’. The domains were
the futures
agreed to overlap with each other on crucial issues such as employment legislative
key
frameworks,
institutions
(eg regional
v national
and immigration, ones),
etc.
These
‘overlapping’ issues among domains we would treat as ‘results’ of the domain work, not as ‘independent’
variables.
The
gamble which
we made in taking this
decision
(whose
‘safety’ is supported by experience of designed futures) was that a considerable amount of agreement on such cross-domain correct. The inter-domain
relationships
of attack’ (to follow our militaristic overlap among domains,
Past events & forces shapingthe present ve
issues would be obtained. This,
on the whole,
proved
thus looked as depicted in Figure 2, where the ‘angle metaphors) would be ‘outsidedin’;
and particularly
meaning that the
the ‘triple overlap’ at the centre (which
Concreteactionsto move as close as possibleto desired future Presentsituation ‘Domain’
is
Idealand viable (desired)future
1
I
Probablefuture ’ if no action
;o
Figure
1.
247
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
Figure 2.
important in systems terms) would be the ‘end-point’, and not the ‘starting point’, of our work. The futures consequently
for each of the three domains,
look as per figure
scenario a s-10 scenano c see
Figure 3.
248
in each of the four scenarios,
3.
b
would
Reinventing
Italy: R Ramirer
Step 3 In this third
step, the domains’
scopes
were
developed
with
the three
several supervisory group members, and several researchers. The domains were then analysed in terms of how their relevant their current existed
today.
developed which
state, allowing This
us to elicit
approach
by the Emerys,
usually
enriches
was
albeit,
the ‘driving
adapted
from
forces’ the
as we have seen, without
such an appreciation.
histories
responsible
search
domain
had shaped
for the domain
conference
the wider
This is graphically
leaders,
as it
methodology
set of participation
depicted
in figure
4.
Step 4 In this fourth
step, the project
developed
four distinct
futures,
one for each scenario,
for
each of the three domains. This is a ‘typical’
scenario
by each of the three domains possible
ways
in which
for discontinuities direction, distinct
relative
but internally
FS scenario to work
combinations
in the causal
and/or
in the project
development
group’s outlines
activity,
in step 3) on the driving of these-and
texture
strengths
futures.
learning,
as the domain
meant
system
forces)-can
allowed
in terms of the three domains
making
in (four)
‘feedback’
us to ‘check’
that the project
to up
the nature,
themselves
a crucial
(done
leading
events
(eg changing
manifest
This step in effect entailed development
research
the present,
new forces and/or
of the domain
of driving
coherent really
based on preliminary forces shaping
loop
what the
had chosen
on.
This step is graphically
depicted
in Figures 5 and 6.
Step 5 In the fifth step we backcast the past shaping
from the (future) scenarios
these present-future
links.
to the present,
Backcasting3’
allows
and indeed one to outline
revisited which
This step
oncrete actions to love as close as xsible to desired
Ideal and viable
Past events a forces
shapingthe Present
Presentsituati
Figure 4.
249
Reinventing Italy: R Ramirez
this step
Figure 5.
elements
of the present
are the most salient/crucial,
(rather than the present’s
or past’s) point
is based on Giambattista
Vito’s
‘reality’
and the notion
of what
factum,
implies
Inasmuch realities,
that whatever
observations3* has already
to the past allowed
domain 1
the least, from the future’s this to the past
on the link,
in Latin, between
the notion
been
the word
derived
done:
of this project the project
the past that may not have the same formative
team to identify
domain 2
‘fact’,
of
from
is not (yet?) real. to deal with
importance
Figure 6.
250
and which
The reason for extending
has not yet been done
as it was the purpose
backcasting
of view.
possible
(future)
salient elements
in the present,
domain 3
Italian from
from our current
Reinventing
point
of view.
point
of view
Nevertheless,
these elements
of the future
in question.
could
come
Italy: R Ramirez
to be seen as critical
3.3 This step is graphically
depicted
from the
in figure
7.
Step 6 In this sixth step we did something chose
one
scenario
‘cartographers
of
destination.34
the
in Necci
and
(rather than imposing social
responsibility
enhancing
Italy’s
enabling
future’
scenario;
which
the others.
The normative
least wanted which
over
to
one
choice
as well
is not easy to do: we became
The role of
made35
view
homogenized
and good
citizenship,
exceptional fit with
guide’
best fitting
valuing
creative
and
emerging
value
an Italian
of Italy:
existing
creation
a
one of
particular
cultural ‘software’
logics.-‘6
to the
identity
of Italy
integrating
entrepreneurial
innovative
and we
from
to the ‘best antidote’ with
the ‘best’
blueprint),
normative
here changed recommending
corresponded
embodies
a single
an enhanced
‘tour
as a scenario
Normann’s
of the team
diversity
flair coupled and civic
with
patrimony,
capacities,
and
best
See Figure 8.
Step 7 The seventh, one,
institutional
in effect
implies
scenario
coming
variable,
but
design
about.
The
a dependent
choices
and interorganizational
relevant
certainties
scenario
took account
inherent
in the scenario.
as well
considered
associated
as those
As someone
on which
are undertaken. with
which
are
no longer policy,
trouble-free;
it is the least bad of the options
normative
of the chosen an independent
institutional
design
These fully take into account
the scenarios;
both those which
scenario-dependent.
costs, of the risks involved, in the project
the sixth,
the possibility
is therefore
depends
activities
that follows
enhancing
scenario
which
of the opportunity
in the sense of its being
relation
chosen
one
and uncertainties
scenario-independent,
‘ideal’
step of our approach
a cause-effect
are
chosen
and of the advantages
team put it, the chosen
it is chosen,
The
the
scenario
in a sense, because
is not
all things
available.
the back-casting step
Figure 7.
251
Reinventing
Italy:
R Ramirez
choiceof ideal scenario
Pastevents& forces shapingthe present
Presentsituation ‘Domain’
v
;o
Figure 8.
In this seventh scenario,
step we adapted
identifying
scenario
come
Ackoff’s
institution-building
about.
These
choices
were
sense, but also in the negative/containment events
which
could
lead
the
future
idealized
designs guided
which
design
not only
sense of addressing towards
the
three
method3’
would
for the chosen
best make
the
chosen
in the positive/reinforcing driving
forces and possible
unwanted
scenarios
if not
so
checked.
Step 8 The eighth to bring
step outlined
the idealized
actors and on short-term
the designs designs
in step 7 in the form of concrete
in step 7 to fruition.
measures,
graphically
action
These steps were
depicted
in figure
plans to begin
focused
on Italian
9.
Step 9 providing the basis Step 9 went beyond the project as it had been scoped and developed, It consists of a set of for ensuring that it became viable after the project itself terminated. proposed action research initiatives to analyse experimentally the viability of the project’s recommendations as per steps l-8, loosely based on Pava’s normative incrementalist planning
approach.38
Conclusions Three traditions in futures-centred systems thinking were integrated and adapted into the single project described in this paper: (a) the scenarios-based one developed at Stanford Research
252
International,
at Shell’s
Group
Planning
Unit,
at the Global
Business
Network
Reinventing
Italy:
R Ramirez
This step
I
Concrete actions to I move as close as
Past events & forces shaping the present
Figure 9. and at SMG,
the Swedish-based
consultancy
which
mode developed by the Emerys
in Australia,
and then by Trist
Canada and North America,
Normann
founded; (b) the ‘search’ and colleagues
in both
and (c) the ‘idealized design’ mode pioneered by Ackoff. The
project attempted to do this with a country as the system to be planned for, facing the problems which adapting intervention
strategies originating
around the planning for single
organizations entails. The overall result of this effort can be appreciated in the book Re-inventing L Necci
ha/y by
and R Normann,
methodological
where an earlier version of this article appears as a appendix. The book is in itself a further effort to widen the conversation
between the initial the richness initiative
members of the initiative
of the conversation
which
and a wider set of stakeholders,
to enhance
is at the core of the methodology
which
the
evolved.
The inside-outside
dialetic method on which the initiative was based proved to be an
effective way to address the ‘mess’ which Italy’s futures pose for Italy today. The utilization
of a non-native
capacity of actors within thinking
language in the initiative
the system to treat the initiative
about Italy in explicit further
transitional
community:
English is very different from relating to it in implicit
If the production of a book was the culmination existence,
very much supported the
as a transitional
communities,
of this first transitional
with longer timespans
activate, and in so doing adapt and even redefine the conclusions called for.
Italian.
community’s
and who will
refine,
of this first one, are now
Notes and references 1.
An earlier Normann,
version of this article appeared as R Ramirez, Reinventare I’ltalia (Milan, Mondadori, 1994).
‘Appendice
Metodologica’
in L Necci
and R
253
Reinventing
2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17.
18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29.
30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 39.
254
Italy:
R Ramirez
L Necci and M Gerstenfeld, Rivalutare I’ltalia (Milano, Sperling and Kupfer, 1992). T Ruokanen and A Nurmio, Suomija mahdolliset maailmat (Helsinki, SITRA-WSOY, 1995). D Morley and R Ramirez, ‘Food for the future of Mexico: an action learning perspective’, Occasional Paper No 1 (York University Action Learning Group, January 1983). F Sagasti, P Patron, N Lynch and M Herndndez, Democracia y ken Gobierno: froyecto Agenda: Perti (Lima, Editorial Apoyo, 1994). A d’Auvergne, D Morley, P Victor and P Wilkinson, ‘Alternative environment and development strategies for St Lucia’, paper given at the Sixth Commonwealth Conference on Human Ecology and Development, ‘Planning with People’, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, 26 May 1981; D Morley, ‘Applied geography as action research: the St Lucia energy futures project’, Geographical Research Forum, 6, September 1983. P Spies, ‘Experience with futures research in South Africa’, Futures, 26(V), Nov 1994. B Ekman et al, Sweden in Reconstruction, unpublished report (Stockholm, SIFO, 1994). T Rojo: ‘Scenarios for the industrialization of the western Mediterranean’, Futures, 26(5), June 1994. P Feyerabend, Against Method (Thetford Press, 1975; and London, Verso, 1978). F E Emery and E L Trist, ‘The causal texture of organizational environments’, Human Relations, 18, 1965; W E Smith, ‘A power framework for project management’, PMnetwork, August 1991. M Emery and F E Emery, ‘Searching: for new directions, in new ways... for new times’, in j W Sutherland (editor), Management Handbook for Public Administrators (New York, Van Nostrand, 1978). P Wack, ‘Scenarios: “Shooting the rapids”‘, Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dee 1985; P Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (New York, Currency Doubleday 1991). R Ackoff Redesigning the Future (New York, Wiley, 1974). C W Churchman, The Systems Approach and its Enemies (New York, Basic Books, 1993). The concept was provided by Stefano Baieti of Metropolis, a subsidiary of Ferrovie dello Stato. See G Morgan (editor), Beyond Method: Strategies for Social Research (Beverley Hills, CA, Sage, 1993), and W Foote Whyte, Learning From The Field: A Guide from Experience (Beverley Hills, CA, Sage, 1994), for illustrations on grounded theory methods. P Herbst, Sociotechnical Design (London, Tavistock, 1974). Emery and Trist, op tit, reference 11 G Sommerhoff, Analytical Biology (Oxford University Press, 1950). Ackoff, op tit, reference 14. G Amado and A Ambrose (editors), The Transitional Approach to the Management of Change (San Francisco, CA, forthcoming). E L Trist and H Murray (editors), The Social Engagement of Social Science (Philadelphia, PA, University of Pennsylvania Press, 1990). W R Ashby, ‘Self-regulation and requisite variety’, in F E Emery (editor), Systems Thinking (New York, Penguin, 1983). In R D Putnam, Making Democracy Work (Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press, lVVl), one finds estimates which establish that less than 10% of Italians spoke Italian at the time Italy was created. Ibid. Necci and Cerstenfled, op tit, reference 2. E L Trist, ‘Referent organizations and the development of inter-organizational domains’, Human Relations, 36(3), 1983. R Normann and R Ramirez, ‘A theory of the offering: a step towards a post-industrial business strategy’, in C Snow (editor) (editor), Strategy, Organization Design, and Human Resource Management (Greenwich, CT, JAI Press, 1988); R Norman and R Ramirez, ‘From value chain to value constellation: designing interactive strategy’, Harvard Business Review, July-August 1993; see also R Normann and R Ramirez, Designing interactive Strategy: From Value Chain to Value Constellation (Chichester, Wiley, 1994). Necci and Gerstenfeld, op tit, reference 2. R Ramirez and L Gatignol, Backcasting When Forecasting Is Not Reliable, Proceedings, Brussels Seminar on Marketing and International Research (Amsterdam, ESOMAR Publications,l993). C Vito, De /‘antique sagesse de I’ltalie (1710, translated by Jules Michelet, 1835) (Paris, Flamarion, 1993). See also: F E Emery, Futures We Are In (Leiden, Martinus Nijhoff, 1967); and F E Emery, ‘The next thirty years: concepts, methods, and anticipations’, Human Relations, 20, 1967. See Necci and Normann, op tit, reference 1. /bid, pages 167- 177. Normann and Ramirez, op tit, reference 29. Ackoff, op tit, reference 14. C Pava, Towards a Concept of Normative Incrementaalism, unpublished doctoral dissertation, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, 1979. Necci and Normann, op tit, reference 1.