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Research note
TECHNOLOGICAL
FORECASTING
AND SOCIAL CHANGE
16, 267-268
(1980)
RESEARCH NOTE A New Technique to Improve Forecasts HAROLD A. LINSTONE
Herman Kahn has talked about cloning Herman Kahn-a staggering prospect. His wife reportedly has expressed concern whether the world can support ten Herman Kahns. On the other hand, another nine such brilliant optimists would send more than a whiff of euphoria around the world. Technological forecasting has now come up with another pregnant suggestion: a sperm bank of top forecasters patterned after the Nobel laureate sperm bank. There are fascinating possibilities. For example, consider the hypothesis that intuitive talents contribute to effective forecasting and cannot be easily taught. If forecasting is an art as much as a science we should gain by proper genetic mixing. Hence the idea of the sperm bank. The contributors would be categorized as analytic or intuitive (left or right neocortex superiority). Thus, a top female analyst could be provided with the sperm of a superb intuitive male futurist. Quality control would be exercised by storing the sperm sufficiently long to assess the forecast track record of the donor.’ The head of one consulting firm has suggested that more balanced forecasts could be obtained by identifying, and then suitably allocating, the sperm of optimist and pessimist donors. We would thus avoid the ever present artificial split into utopian and dystopian scenarios. Alternatively, a genetic mixing of literary and technical talent types could produce another H. G. Wells. Intensive discussions have produced comments such as the following: I like the basic concept-but
it misses a crucial issue: how to eliminate the forecasters afflicted with modelitis (also known as the Pygmalion syndrome2). I see a vaccine as a more cost-effective way to build resistance to this disease. What are you going to do about the most endemic weakness? I recall Eric Bell’s immortal statement that trend extrapolation is one of the two great evils we have inherited from the Greeks. Having just read Rubin Carson’s report on the Repository for Media Sperm Inc, 3 I would worry about trend extrapolators practicing inbreeding-when we already have too many of them. How are you going to prevent profit-oriented futures groups and corporate organizations from inadver-
‘Proposed storage sites include a refrigerator at The RAND Corporation, Disneyland, Easter Island, and Loch Ness. *Like the mythical sculptor Pygmalion they fall in love with the models they have created and mistake the model for reality. Pygmalion was able to persuade the goddess Aphrodite to bring his statue to life; modern modelers have not been so effective. “A private foundation which has set up an exclusive sperm bank offering the seeds of Academy Award winners and other industry greats to carefully selected women with the aim of creating a master race of film makers (Los Angeles Times, March 16, 1980, Calendar Section, p. 107). @ Elsevier North Holland,
Inc., 1980
0040-1625/80/03026702$2.25
268
RESEARCH
tently sinking impractical?
An entirely company.
to nonprofit
different
status if the sperm bank is seeded by intellectual
issue was brought
up by a chief scientist
NOTE
giants who are totally
of an aerospace
As usual futurists are following the crowd rather than leading it. They should look at the future of the rest of the world rather than indulge in their narcissistic, egocentric fantasies. We need to send a sperm bank as well as an egg bank into orbit. Sensors on the orbiting vehicle could detect any nuclear holocaust on earth and, after the contamination has dissipated, this “Noah’s ark in the sky” could release soft landing capsules of eggs and sperm to begin healthy repopulation of the earth.”
Opponents have, of course, raised ethical doubts about the creation of a master race of forecasters-a new elite. It is therefore not surprising to learn that a technology assessment is being planned to determine the impacts of this aspect of genetic engineering. Received
I April
1980
FORECASTING
AND SOCIAL CHANGE
16, 267-268
(1980)
RESEARCH NOTE A New Technique to Improve Forecasts HAROLD A. LINSTONE
Herman Kahn has talked about cloning Herman Kahn-a staggering prospect. His wife reportedly has expressed concern whether the world can support ten Herman Kahns. On the other hand, another nine such brilliant optimists would send more than a whiff of euphoria around the world. Technological forecasting has now come up with another pregnant suggestion: a sperm bank of top forecasters patterned after the Nobel laureate sperm bank. There are fascinating possibilities. For example, consider the hypothesis that intuitive talents contribute to effective forecasting and cannot be easily taught. If forecasting is an art as much as a science we should gain by proper genetic mixing. Hence the idea of the sperm bank. The contributors would be categorized as analytic or intuitive (left or right neocortex superiority). Thus, a top female analyst could be provided with the sperm of a superb intuitive male futurist. Quality control would be exercised by storing the sperm sufficiently long to assess the forecast track record of the donor.’ The head of one consulting firm has suggested that more balanced forecasts could be obtained by identifying, and then suitably allocating, the sperm of optimist and pessimist donors. We would thus avoid the ever present artificial split into utopian and dystopian scenarios. Alternatively, a genetic mixing of literary and technical talent types could produce another H. G. Wells. Intensive discussions have produced comments such as the following: I like the basic concept-but
it misses a crucial issue: how to eliminate the forecasters afflicted with modelitis (also known as the Pygmalion syndrome2). I see a vaccine as a more cost-effective way to build resistance to this disease. What are you going to do about the most endemic weakness? I recall Eric Bell’s immortal statement that trend extrapolation is one of the two great evils we have inherited from the Greeks. Having just read Rubin Carson’s report on the Repository for Media Sperm Inc, 3 I would worry about trend extrapolators practicing inbreeding-when we already have too many of them. How are you going to prevent profit-oriented futures groups and corporate organizations from inadver-
‘Proposed storage sites include a refrigerator at The RAND Corporation, Disneyland, Easter Island, and Loch Ness. *Like the mythical sculptor Pygmalion they fall in love with the models they have created and mistake the model for reality. Pygmalion was able to persuade the goddess Aphrodite to bring his statue to life; modern modelers have not been so effective. “A private foundation which has set up an exclusive sperm bank offering the seeds of Academy Award winners and other industry greats to carefully selected women with the aim of creating a master race of film makers (Los Angeles Times, March 16, 1980, Calendar Section, p. 107). @ Elsevier North Holland,
Inc., 1980
0040-1625/80/03026702$2.25
268
RESEARCH
tently sinking impractical?
An entirely company.
to nonprofit
different
status if the sperm bank is seeded by intellectual
issue was brought
up by a chief scientist
NOTE
giants who are totally
of an aerospace
As usual futurists are following the crowd rather than leading it. They should look at the future of the rest of the world rather than indulge in their narcissistic, egocentric fantasies. We need to send a sperm bank as well as an egg bank into orbit. Sensors on the orbiting vehicle could detect any nuclear holocaust on earth and, after the contamination has dissipated, this “Noah’s ark in the sky” could release soft landing capsules of eggs and sperm to begin healthy repopulation of the earth.”
Opponents have, of course, raised ethical doubts about the creation of a master race of forecasters-a new elite. It is therefore not surprising to learn that a technology assessment is being planned to determine the impacts of this aspect of genetic engineering. Received
I April
1980