Response to dr walter willett's dissent

Response to dr walter willett's dissent

J Clia EpidemiolVol. 47, No. 3, pp. 227-230, 1994 Pergamon 08954356(93)EOO30-F Copyright 0 1994 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All ...

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J Clia EpidemiolVol. 47, No. 3, pp. 227-230, 1994

Pergamon

08954356(93)EOO30-F

Copyright 0 1994 Elsevier Science Ltd Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved

0895-4356/94$6.00+ 0.00

Response RESPONSE

TO DR WALTER

WILLETT’S

DISSENT

ERNST L. WYNDER,’ LEONARD A. COHEN,’ DAVID P. ROSE*and STEVEN

D. STELLMAN]

‘Division of Epidemiology, American Health Foundation, 320 East 43 Street, New York, NY 10017 and 2Division of Nutrition and Endocrinology, American Health Foundation, 1 Dana Road, Valhalla, NY 10595, U.S.A. (Received 17 November 1993)

We would like to reply to Dr Willett’s comments by addressing the specific issues he has raised. It is understood that studies in nutritional carcinogenesis are inherently imprecise-a problem compounded by the need to integrate data from widely disparate disciplines. Thus, it is not surprising that marked differences in opinion concerning the interpretation of data have arisen. In this context, open and constructive debate is to be welcomed as the best means of resolving these scientific issues. First, with regard to the 65-county study in China [l], Dr Willett notes that fat intake varied from 5 to 47% of total calories across the 65 counties and that, despite this broad range, there was only a “slight” variation in breast cancer mortality rates and these rates were about five times lower than in the U.S. (The overall age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate for Chinese women is 4.7, while that for U.S. women is 24.6/100,000 [2]). Dr Willett then concludes, “Thus, in this ecological study, less confounded by general socio-economic conditions, there is evidence that the international differences cannot be explained simply by the percentage of calories due to fat.” A more circumspect reading of this paper would have shown that fat intake among the people in the 65 counties actually ranged from 5.9 to 25.4% of calories, with a single exception (County WA) where it was 45.2%. This county is unique in that it has a population density of only 3 inhabitants/km*, has 67% employed in agricul-

ture; its residents have a high intake of meat and dairy products and, except for wheat, a very low intake of plant products. Using the same database, Marshall et al. [3] reported a weak positive association between fat intake and breast cancer risk. Moreover, when these data were segregated into quintiles of fat intake, a lower mean of 14.9% and an upper mean of 22.6% were reported. Such a weak association would be expected assuming that the people in China as a whole represent a population with low-fat intake that is at low-risk. It is most intriguing that despite significantly lower fat intake, the mean total caloric intake for males in China is greater than that in the U.S., i.e. 2656 vs 2360 kcal/day [l]. From this perspective, the data from China appear to support rather than refute the fat hypothesis. Regarding the comments about the steadily rising incidence of breast cancer in the U.S. against a decline in fat intake, it should be noted that from 1948 until the early 198Os, fat intake has risen continuously in the U.S. [4]. Since then, a decline from a high of >40% to approximately 37% of calories has occurred according to NHANES II. Hence, the continued increase in breast cancer incidence could be the delayed biological expression of an earlier dietary pattern. Even though total fat intake has decreased, the proportion of linoleic acid in the fats used as part of the U.S. diet has steadily increased over the past 40 years [5]. This is of particular interest since linoleic acid is a

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precursor to the biologically active eicosanoids which appear to play a specific role in mammary cancer development [6]. We should also acknowledge that the rising incidence in breast cancer may, in part, be attributed to the increased use of mammography for early detection [7]. Contrary to Willett’s claim that “the effect of fat is not consistent in tumor models which do not involve the use of high doses of carcinogens”, it is worth noting that the earliest demonstration of the effect of fat by Tannenbaum [8] was in dba and C3H strain mice which produce mammary tumors “spontaneously” in the absence of exogenous carcinogens. Moreover, studies with tumor implants indicate that metastasis of mammary tumor implants to distant organs can be regulated by dietary fat [9]. That a “much stronger and more consistent finding has been that energy restriction profoundly reduces mammary tumors” is, in a general sense, true. However, caloric restriction inhibits mammary tumorigenesis only if the degree of restriction is 20-25% of the ad libitum intake and it is always associated with a significant decrease in body weight gain. Moreover, two recent large-scale meta-analyses do not support a calorie hypothesis: one showed a stronger correlation for body weight gain and tumorigenesis than for caloric intake [lo], and the other a highly significant effect of fat per se (p < 0.001) in mammary tumor development in a combined analysis of over 100 studies in rats and mice [ll]. The caloric hypothesis is also doubtful because high-fat diets that are rich in the monounsaturated, oleic acid (Cl 8: 1, n-9), in medium chain length fatty acids (C8:0, ClO:O), and long chain n-3 polyunsaturates (C20:5, n-3; C22:6, n-3) do not promote mammary tumor development while diets that are rich in linoleic acid (C18:2, n-6) do so even though they contain the same caloric density [12]. Doubt has been expressed as to whether or not changes made after menopause would have any effect on risk. This is a valid point and has not been adequately tested since most animal model studies are conducted in young rodents. However, Katz and Boylan [9] have shown that low-fat diets decrease metastatic dissemination of mammary tumor implants in older “retired breeders” but not in young rats, suggesting that fat can exert effects in non-cycling “postmenopausal” rodents. It is true that a definitive mechanism of action for the effect of dietary fats on mammary cancer

is lacking. (Parenthetically, it is worth noting no such mechanism has been demonstrated for caloric restriction.) Evidence for various mechanisms has been reviewed [13]. Several investigators have reported that populations consuming low-fat diets exhibit relatively low levels of circulating estrogens-hormones which have been implicated in breast cancer development. In a comparison of British and ruraldwelling Chinese, this difference applied to both premenopausal and postmenopausal women [14]; a similar study of American and ruraldwelling Japanese was limited to those beyond menopause [15]. Dr Willett expresses concern that non-intervention groups were not included in the published studies of dietary fat and blood estrogens. While the relevance of his reference to cholesterol is uncertain, this aspect has, in fact, now been addressed. A study of postmenopausal breast cancer patients participating in the WINS Trial showed that those with reliably assayable levels of serum estradiol did respond to a low-fat dietary intervention; the non-intervention group showed no such reduction in estradiol over a 1Zmonths observation period [16]. Recent studies by Tillotson et al. [17] indicating an effect of linoleic acid on ~53 gene expression in cultured mammary tumor cells and research by Djuric et al. [18] suggesting that oxidative damage to DNA is increased in humans consuming a high fat diet indicate that fat may exert its effects via altered gene expression or increased free radical activity. Also, while it is true that total polyunsaturated fat intake is similar in the U.S. and Japan, the Japanese consume a larger proportion of n-3 polyunsaturates than Americans, which may serve as a protective effect with regard to breast cancer [19,20]. Dr Willett is correct in his remarks concerning the unreliability of serum and adipose tissue lipid measurements as biomarkers for fat intake. No doubt, this is because in nutritionally homogeneous populations like the U.S., differences in the fatty acid profiles of adipose tissue or serum lipids are minimal. Preliminary studies indicate that total serum triglycerides are lower in women who eat low-fat diets (J. Richie, AHF, personal communication); nonetheless, a reliable biomarker for total fat intake remains to be established. The issue of the unreliability of dietary questionnaires was raised because it is the central problem in nutritional epidemiology. Out of

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Response: Response to Dr Walter Willett’s Dissent

some 85,000 nurses, Willett et al. [21] analyzed a subsample of 200 women by weighing and measuring food intake over a 28-day period. These results, according to Willett, were then compared with the food frequencies obtained from the entire cohort with “reasonably” good correlations. It is true that weighed records of food consumption are associated with fewer sources of error than estimates of past intake; yet, recent findings [22] with weighed food records, validated by nitrogen excretion assays, are also associated with substantial bias. In the lower reported range of fat intake, a majority of individuals underreported their fat intake. Addressing the issue of the relative homogeneity of fat intake in the U.S. population, Willett claims that the respondents to the revised 1984 questionnaire included women who consumed less than 25% as well as those who ate more than 50% calories as fat. However, Bingham has shown [22], that in typical western societies, the frequency of women who consume below 28% of calories as fat is vanishingly small and that the vast majority fall within the range of 3@-44% of caloric intake as fat. It is of interest in this regard that Toniolo et al. [23] reported in a case-control study in Northern Italy, a decrease in breast cancer risk for women who consumed less than 24% fat calories when compared to women consuming >40% calories as fat. Willett is correct when he states that “it is notable that in large prospective studies of this relationship that have recently been conducted, the findings are much more consistent and all report little or no association.” Such a result is understandable in light of the relative uniformity of fat intake in the societies studied (Netherlands, U.S., etc.), and considering measurement errors and the well accepted phenomenon of social desirability bias. Clearly, intra-country prospective studies will not provide any further information on this subject unless the study cohort comes from a country with a fat intake ranging from at least 20% to more than 40% of total calories. Undoubtedly, Willett and colleagues have made a valuable contribution to the debate on fat and breast cancer. Viewing the data in aggregate, including over half a century of animal model experimentation, ecological studies and analysis of plausible mechanisms, it is difficult to accept their conclusion that dietary fat is an insignificant risk factor for breast cancer.

In conclusion, on the issue of dietary fat as a causative factor for breast cancer, our view does not stand alone. The extensive reviews by the National Academy of Sciences [24] and the World Health Organization [25] generally support our interpretation of existing data. It is not surprising, as we already know from the long controversy about to dietary fat and atherosclerosis, that any issue involving nutrition, because of its complicated interrelationships as well as economic interests, will be open to public debate for a long time to come. No doubt, the work of Willett and his group, as well as our own, will continue to contribute to this debate. This should lead not only to increasingly better understanding of the scientific issues, but also to public health decisions that have to be made on the basis of relative costs and benefits, rather than unambiguous proof. Because various dietary fats have been shown to relate to many other diseases, including coronary disease, the major cause of death in the U.S., and also because fats obviously contribute more to total caloric intake than do proteins and carbohydrates, a public health recommendation to reduce specific dietary fats is both timely and consistent with much of the curre’nt evidence and, to quote Hippocrates, “would do no harm”.

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