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have been half-apprehended in history as things that go bump in the night. An interesting sign ofscience fictions’ catching up with the 197Os-the hero here is black and his girlfriend is the village blacksmith. They live in a commune of R&D types who are going to get technology right this time around. The hero’s task is to learn why the air creatures have been attacking humans and what can be done about it. As with Beasts, an underlying theme is what bargain man will now strike with nature, when he temporarily no longer has the upper hand. Every possible loose strand works out for the best in the end but, that apart, TeEe?z$athis quite entertaining and witty, with its own lessons to teach. Jubilee is a science fiction classic, first published in 1953, and now happily reissued in the Avon SF Rediscovery Series. This is a finely etched portrait of a world in which the South won the Civil War (here, the “War of Southron Independence”“), seen through the eyes of a bookish, passive historian who gets the opportunity to travel back in time to the Battle of Gettysburg, and

inadvertently changes its outcomecreating the world we know. On one level, the book is an exploration of free will and determinism, of personal historical tragedy. The main character is a spectator of life, personally and professionally; ironically he is a spectator who changes history through his own blunder. But what is most fascinating is that the book depicts the USA as an underdeveloped country. In this alternative history, the triumphant Confederacy is a world power, stretching down to Mexico, while the USA (ie the North) is economically exploited-its best minds go elsewhere, its universities are third-rate; its peaple are poor, fatalistic, and bitter; its independence rests on the whim of others; robbers roam the countryside; and a rich elite class (Wan holds open the promise that law taxes for foreign investments and a cheap labour force will create enough wealth to trickle dawn to the masses. There is nothing like this empathetic reversal to give one a gut appreciation of the case for a new international economic order.

CONFERENCES Modelling in a cold climate The Third International Sympsium of Trends in Ma~ematical organised by Modelling, UNESCOJFundacion Bariloche, Argentina, l-4 December 1976 The host for this symposium, the Fundacion Baribche, have recently been under considerable political pressure from the Argentine Government. The work of the Fundacion is currently being investigated by military officials seeking evidence of subversive activities.

Since a high proportion of the Funda&on’s income has historically been derived from government sources the recent wave of witch hunting in Argentina poses a serious threat to the continued existence of the Fundacion. Considering this uncertain background, the relatively smooth and efIicient organisation of this symposium represented a considerable achievement. Unfortunately, however, the earlier stages of the arganisation of the conference were considerably disrupted by the abrupt departure of severai mem-

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hers of the Fundacion’s mathematics department in anti~ipa~on of the political situation and the resulting confusion, coupled with a perhaps understandable anxiety over the Argentine political climate, meant that the symposium was less well attended than its two predecessors. Nevertheless, the 30 or so participants represented a wide range of interests and institutions; the majority of those attending being drawn from developing countries. This was particularly appropriate since this third symposium focused on a critical evaluation of trends in mathematics modelling with special relevance to the needs of institutions in developing countries. In his opening address Carlos Suarez, president of the Fundacion, outlined a theme which was to recur throughout the symposium. Speaking of the emergence of mathematical modelling he remarked : * . . each time a new inst~ment of analysis appears, whether of nature or society, there is a tendency to endow it with almost magical powers which will enable the solution of the problem to he found. This danger of overemphasis of the utility of mathematical models became the focus for the first panel discussion. Sam Cole (Science Policy Research Unit) opened with an impassioned plea for the need for humility and scepticism in model building; and in particular for a critical evaluation of the relationship between models and the goals and institutions of society. Gilbert0 Gallopin of the Fundacion Bariloche reaffirmed this viewpoint with a call for a deeper understanding of the interrela~onshi~ between modelling methods, the uses of modelling, the institutional basis of modelling, and the wider issues of society. In particular, Gallopin outlined four characteristics that modelling activities should possess to be useful to developing countries. Such models should not attempt to be general but rather they concentrate on the realistic modehing of limited practica1 topics and should be able to make use of basic FUTURES

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qualitative itiormation. He also felt that the most valuable model was one which dealt with the complex dynamic interactions between variables rather than the straightforward accounting approach; and that only modest computing facilities should be required. There was considerable support for these ideas from the other conference participants and, as the final panel speaker, I underscored the arguments with a series of case studies and anecdotes in support of a simple, piuralistic approach to modelling socioeconomic systems, Some recent large-scale modelimg exercises could almost be described as baroque in terms of their use as propaganda and the unnecessary complexity of the representations chosen. In the presentations, these ideas were taken up again in the research context. Sam Cole presented a critical view of recent world modelling activities which was complemented by a detailed consideration of the Pestel-Mesarovicl model by Neanto Saavedra of Simon Bolivar University, Venezuela. He reported that his examination of the model did not reveal any new developments in methodology and that the economic sector of the model was probably the most superficial. He was forced to conclude that the model was an attempt to sell the vision of the world future that is predominant in the developed market economics . . . using an ostentatious systemic language and suggesting the support of new developments in systems theory. It is widely agreed that even if the adequacy ofthe Pest&-Mesarovic modef. utas indeed enhanced by advances in

system theory that this could not be a substitute for improvements in social and economic theory. In support of this point Graciela Chichilnisky (Harvard) presented a remarkably clear exposition of the formal mathematical economic framework underlying the economic sector of the Fundacion Bariloche world model. She claimed that further research was urgently required to provide an adequate formal economic

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background for further modelling. She outlined her own plans for an inv~~~ation into the extension of neoclassical economics to include the dynamic role of income distribution in determining the nature of theoretical equilibrium solutions. Whilst the need for such advanced theoretical work was acknowledged by the majority of the participants there was also wide agreement as to the requirement for improved practical modelling techniques. Gilbert0 GaIlopin reported the results of a very promising series of experiments in which the behaviour of the food sector of the Bariloche model was closely approximated using purely qualitative information about the interactions between the major variables. The results were obtained by solving a set of simple equations using a pocket calculator. Gallopin was optimistic that useful and informative models would be built with the minimum cost in terms of data and computational resources. I share Gallopin’s optimism: the Science Policy Research Unit’s investigation into the use of simple structural models of dynamic systems has had equally promising results. I also reported on a new technique for simplifying nonlinear dynamic models as an aid to unde~tandin~ the structural determinants of behaviour. One important consequence of this research is an improved ability to deal with a range of alternative model structures rather than a single complex model. The desirability of this approach was emphasised by Mahamed Amed ofthe American University in Cairo who presented a critical review of available economic-demographic models. He conchtded that no single model was entirely satisfactory for all purposes and therefore studies of population growth should use a range of such models Stanislav Kuzmin (International Labour Office, Geneva) presented a theoretical paper about a novel approach to understanding the structure of dynamic socioecon5mic

models; and, in a more practical vein a thorough, critical review of the IL0 ‘BACHUE economic-demo~aphic model. In line with Amed’s conclusions, he recommended that several structural variants of BACHUE should be developed, and in particular that a normative version be constructed and used to evaluate the economic feasibility of selected social and demographic goals. Rudolf0 Here&a and Bernado Kugler of the Columbian Centre for Population Studies presented the SERES model which is intended to provide some insight into alternative Columbian development policies. Although the time allocated was not sufficient for the presentation of such a major modelling exercise, the symposium was able to appreciate the sound achievement of the Calumbian team. Similar in scope EO the IL0 BACHUE model, the SERBS model attempts ta deal explicitly with health and family planning as well as with more conventional economicdemographic interactions. The SERBS team were notably modest in the claims made on behalf of their model, it being principally regarded at its current state of development as a teaching instrument and a stimuhts for further research. Another modelling exercise was rcported by Mordecai Avriel who described the structure of the Stanford University national energy model. Some disappointment was expressed by participants at the conventional nature of the work which assumes little struo tural change in the nature of energy demand or supply and thus is able only to project the energy supply/demand balance of the USA within an extrapolative framework+ The symposium concluded with a return to the theme emphasised in the earlier sessions, Manfred Max-Neef expressed his personal disappointment at the apparent “overselling” of the Pestel-Mesarovic model and echoed the words of Ing. Suarez who in his open-

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ing address considered it of fundamental importance “from the point of view of scientific ethics to explain with the maximum clarity the basis of the analysis carried out and the restrictions established”. Max-Neef suggested that the next symposium should deal specifically with the ethical and institutional basis of mathematical modelling. Mick McLean Sussex University, UK

Retrospective

technology

Carnegie-Mellon University conference on Retrospective Technology Assessment, Pittsburgh, USA, 2-4 December 1976 The purpose of the conference was to bring to the attention of practitioners of technology assessment (TA) information about a field-historythat has normally not been included in TA teams, and to demonstrate the utility of retrospective technology assessment (RTA), whether performed by historians or others. Of the 16 papers delivered, five were by historians and two involved historians as members of a research team. The conference programme included a keynote address by Daniel De Simone, Deputy Director of the Office of Technology Assessment, a session on methodology, two sessions of case studies, and a session on technology and values. The subjects addressed by the retrospective case studies included technoIogy impacts on social, economic and political variables, technology transfer, the emergence of state regulation as a result of the unanticipated impacts of a technology, the limitations of forecasting technological impacts, constraints in transfer of assessment into policy, and the failure of planning for impacts. The case studies themselves used a wide range of methods.

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References I. M. Mesarovic and E. Pestel, “Multilevel

computer model of world deveIopment system”, Proceedings of IIASA Symposium, Schloss Laxenburg, Austria. 2. Amilcar Herrara, Hugo Scolnik, Graciela Chichilnisky, Gilbert0 Gallopin, Jorge Hardoy, Diana Mosovich, Enrique Oteiza, Gilda de Ramero Biest, Carlos Sulrez, and Luis Talavera, Catastropheor Jvew Society? A Latin American World Model (Ottawa, International Development Research Centre, 1976).

assessment The session on “Technology and values” illustrated how important values are in TA and how difficuh it is to adequately measure their influence. The last day of the conference was marked by evaluations of the conference and discussion of the future of RTA. Xn his assessment of the conference, Joshua Menkes (Director of Exploratory Research, Natural Science Foundation~~NN) took the view that although value-free TA was not possible, both TA and RTA should attempt to satisfy the objectives of the scientific method and follow a four-step outline of description, explanation, prediction and validation. For RTA to be useful, he maintained, it had to clarify the relationship between the historical process and the evolution of policy; it should emphasise the general rather than the particular features of the historical event. All the panelists stressed the need for better theory, more hypothesis testing, and the formulation of alternative scenarios. One panelist argued the importance of economic factors and warned about being overly sanguine about the possibilities of tracing secondand third-order effects. The consensus was that RTA had an important, but still undefined, role in the TA movement.