- Email: [email protected]
Risk assessment in conservation biology
Biological Conservation 69 (1994) 229 © 1994 Elsevier Science Limited Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved ELSEVIER
BOOK REVIEW
Redesigning the American Lawn. A Search for Environmental Harmony. By F. Herbert Bormann, Diana Balmori & Gordon T. Geballe. Yale University Press, New Haven and London. 1993. 166 pp. ISBN 0 300 05401 7. Price: £16.00, US$25.00. Ecological Effects of Afforestation. Studies in the History and Ecology of Afforestation in Western Europe. Edited by Charles Watkins. CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon. 1993. 240 pp. ISBN 0 85198 818 0. Price: £32.50. Biogeography of Mediterranean Invasions. Edited by R. H. Groves & F. Di Castri. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1991. 485 pp. ISBN 0 521 36040 4. Price: £65.00, US$125-00 (hbk). Modern Ecology. Basic and Applied Aspects. Edited by G. Esser & D. Overdieck. Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam. 1991. 844 pp. ISBN 0 444 89183 8. Price: Dfl. 450.00, US$231.00 (hbk). Mammoths, Mastodonts, and Elephants. By Gary Haynes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1992. 413 pp. ISBN 0 521 38435 4. Price: £40.00, US$69.50 (hbk). Animal Dispersal. Small Mammals as a Model. Edited by Nils Chr. Stenseth & William Z. Lidicker Jr. Chapman & Hall, London. 1991. 365 pp. Price: £35-00 (hbk). Conserving Migratory Birds. Edited by Tobias Salathe. International Council for Bird Preservation, Cambridge. ICBP Technical Publication, No. 12. 1991. 393 pp. ISBN 0 946888 20 5. Price: £19.50. A History of Antarctic Science. By G. E. Fogg. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1992. 483 pp. ISBN 0 521 36113 3. Price: £55.00 (hbk). Red Data Books of Britain and Ireland: Stoneworts. By N. F. Stewart & J. M. Church. Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough. 1992. 143 pp. ISBN 1 873701 24 1. Price: £15.00 (hbk). Genes in Ecology. Edited by R. J. Berry, T. J. Crawford & G. M. Hewitt. Blackwell Scientific Publications for the British Ecological Society, Oxford. 1992. 534 pp. ISBN 0 632 03468 8. Price: £25.00 (pbk). Conservation Biology. The Theory and Practice of Nature Conservation Preservation and Management. Edited by Peggy L. Fiedler & Subodh K. Jain. Chapman & Hall, New York and London. 1992. 507 pp. ISBN 0 412 1961 2. World Soil Erosion and Conservation. Edited by David Pimental. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1993. 349 pp. ISBN 0 521 41967 0. Price: £55-00 (hbk). The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Edited by B. L. Turner II, William C. Clark, Robert W. Kates, John F. Richards, Jessica T. Matthews & William B. Meyer. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1993. 713 pp. ISBN 0 521 44630 9. Price: £27.00 (pbk).
Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology. By M. A. Burgman, S. Ferson & H. R. Akcakaya. Chapman and Hall, London. 1993. 514 pp. ISBN 0 471 235030 0. Price: £39.95. This book deals in a structured way with the interrelated fields of population modelling and growth projections, using both determinate and indeterminate models, the incorporation of risk, especially risk of extinction or quasi-extinction into such modelling and the application of the concepts, constraints and uncertainty arising from the application of the model to conservation biology. The book is hierarchically structured, taking us from the apparently simple, even simplistic, models based on very limited data, e.g. population numbers, mean densities and the differences between birth and death rates, to much more complex models taking population structures, occupancy, genetic variability, etc., into account. The authors carefully distinguish phenotypic, demographic, environmental and spatial variation and, by use of effective worked examples, lead the reader to consider how the characteristics of each type of variation contributes to the risk of species decline and growth. I was particularly taken by the balanced views of the authors, stressing throughout both the potential benefits of risk assessment based on stochastic models and their limitations, and distinguishing carefully between forecasting what will happen (which is essentially impossible), and projecting possible scenarios on the basis of a set of defined assumptions. There is no doubt in my mind that a close study of the volume will benefit conservation biologists and enable them to improve the quantitative basis of management decisions almost always made without the benefit of comprehensive, often even indicative, data. It is a volume that requires careful scrutiny and one to which I will return given the current emphasis on the retention of biodiversity. It is a volume I can commend, with hesitation notwithstanding the sobering thought that in evolutionary terms extinction is the inevitable fate not only of individuals but also of species! R. G. Wyn Jones OTHER PUBLICATIONS RECEIVED BUT NOT REVIEWED Rebuilding Communities. Experiences and Experiments in Europe. Edited by Vithal Rajan. Green Books Ltd, Totnes, in association with the World Wide Fund for Nature. 1993. 278 pp. ISBN 1 870098 50 1. Price: £9.95. 229
BOOK REVIEW
Redesigning the American Lawn. A Search for Environmental Harmony. By F. Herbert Bormann, Diana Balmori & Gordon T. Geballe. Yale University Press, New Haven and London. 1993. 166 pp. ISBN 0 300 05401 7. Price: £16.00, US$25.00. Ecological Effects of Afforestation. Studies in the History and Ecology of Afforestation in Western Europe. Edited by Charles Watkins. CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon. 1993. 240 pp. ISBN 0 85198 818 0. Price: £32.50. Biogeography of Mediterranean Invasions. Edited by R. H. Groves & F. Di Castri. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1991. 485 pp. ISBN 0 521 36040 4. Price: £65.00, US$125-00 (hbk). Modern Ecology. Basic and Applied Aspects. Edited by G. Esser & D. Overdieck. Elsevier Science Publishers, Amsterdam. 1991. 844 pp. ISBN 0 444 89183 8. Price: Dfl. 450.00, US$231.00 (hbk). Mammoths, Mastodonts, and Elephants. By Gary Haynes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1992. 413 pp. ISBN 0 521 38435 4. Price: £40.00, US$69.50 (hbk). Animal Dispersal. Small Mammals as a Model. Edited by Nils Chr. Stenseth & William Z. Lidicker Jr. Chapman & Hall, London. 1991. 365 pp. Price: £35-00 (hbk). Conserving Migratory Birds. Edited by Tobias Salathe. International Council for Bird Preservation, Cambridge. ICBP Technical Publication, No. 12. 1991. 393 pp. ISBN 0 946888 20 5. Price: £19.50. A History of Antarctic Science. By G. E. Fogg. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1992. 483 pp. ISBN 0 521 36113 3. Price: £55.00 (hbk). Red Data Books of Britain and Ireland: Stoneworts. By N. F. Stewart & J. M. Church. Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough. 1992. 143 pp. ISBN 1 873701 24 1. Price: £15.00 (hbk). Genes in Ecology. Edited by R. J. Berry, T. J. Crawford & G. M. Hewitt. Blackwell Scientific Publications for the British Ecological Society, Oxford. 1992. 534 pp. ISBN 0 632 03468 8. Price: £25.00 (pbk). Conservation Biology. The Theory and Practice of Nature Conservation Preservation and Management. Edited by Peggy L. Fiedler & Subodh K. Jain. Chapman & Hall, New York and London. 1992. 507 pp. ISBN 0 412 1961 2. World Soil Erosion and Conservation. Edited by David Pimental. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1993. 349 pp. ISBN 0 521 41967 0. Price: £55-00 (hbk). The Earth as Transformed by Human Action. Edited by B. L. Turner II, William C. Clark, Robert W. Kates, John F. Richards, Jessica T. Matthews & William B. Meyer. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 1993. 713 pp. ISBN 0 521 44630 9. Price: £27.00 (pbk).
Risk Assessment in Conservation Biology. By M. A. Burgman, S. Ferson & H. R. Akcakaya. Chapman and Hall, London. 1993. 514 pp. ISBN 0 471 235030 0. Price: £39.95. This book deals in a structured way with the interrelated fields of population modelling and growth projections, using both determinate and indeterminate models, the incorporation of risk, especially risk of extinction or quasi-extinction into such modelling and the application of the concepts, constraints and uncertainty arising from the application of the model to conservation biology. The book is hierarchically structured, taking us from the apparently simple, even simplistic, models based on very limited data, e.g. population numbers, mean densities and the differences between birth and death rates, to much more complex models taking population structures, occupancy, genetic variability, etc., into account. The authors carefully distinguish phenotypic, demographic, environmental and spatial variation and, by use of effective worked examples, lead the reader to consider how the characteristics of each type of variation contributes to the risk of species decline and growth. I was particularly taken by the balanced views of the authors, stressing throughout both the potential benefits of risk assessment based on stochastic models and their limitations, and distinguishing carefully between forecasting what will happen (which is essentially impossible), and projecting possible scenarios on the basis of a set of defined assumptions. There is no doubt in my mind that a close study of the volume will benefit conservation biologists and enable them to improve the quantitative basis of management decisions almost always made without the benefit of comprehensive, often even indicative, data. It is a volume that requires careful scrutiny and one to which I will return given the current emphasis on the retention of biodiversity. It is a volume I can commend, with hesitation notwithstanding the sobering thought that in evolutionary terms extinction is the inevitable fate not only of individuals but also of species! R. G. Wyn Jones OTHER PUBLICATIONS RECEIVED BUT NOT REVIEWED Rebuilding Communities. Experiences and Experiments in Europe. Edited by Vithal Rajan. Green Books Ltd, Totnes, in association with the World Wide Fund for Nature. 1993. 278 pp. ISBN 1 870098 50 1. Price: £9.95. 229