RISK-EU Method applied to the Algerian city of Arzew to assess exposure to earthquakes

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International Conference On Materials And Energy 2015, ICOME 15, 19-22 May 2015, Tetouan, Morocco, and the International Conference On Materials And Energy 2016, ICOME 16, 17-20 May 2016, La Rochelle, France International Conference On Materials And Energy 2015, ICOME 15, 19-22 May 2015, Tetouan, 15th International Symposium on District Heating andICOME Cooling16, 17-20 May Morocco, and the The International Conference On Materials And Energy 2016, RISK-EU Method applied Algerian 2016,to Lathe Rochelle, France city of Arzew to assess

Assessing the feasibility the heat demand-outdoor exposureoftousing earthquakes RISK-EU Method applied to the Algerian cityheat of Arzew toforecast assess temperature function for a long-term district demand a b AOUANE Abderrahim *,RAHAL Driss ,A.H. Mohammed Belhadjc exposure toD.earthquakes

a

I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc AOUANE Abderrahim *,RAHAL D. Driss ,A.H. Mohammed Belhadj

PhD student at the University of Sciences and technology of Oran. «Department of Civil Engineering» BP 1505 Oran El-Menouar Algeria. a b c B Professor, University of sciences and technology of Oran «Department of Civil Engineering» BP 1505 Oran El - Menouar Algeria. a IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal b a Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, PhD student at the UniversityVeolia of Sciences and technology of Oran. «Department of Civil Engineering» BP France 1505 Oran El-Menouar Algeria. c B Département Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300ElNantes, France Professor, University of sciences and technology of Oran «Department of Civil Engineering» BP 1505 Oran - Menouar Algeria. Abstract

In order To mitigate the adverse consequences of an earthquake, determining the vulnerability of buildings is Abstract imperative Abstract and crucial for saving human lives and buildings. So far, a good review / assessment of the RISK-EU method appears , as opposite to the other methods (more than a In order vulnerability To mitigate the adverse methods, consequences ofbyanfar earthquake, determining vulnerability of Context buildingsand is dozen) assessment to be the most andthe applicable to the District heating networks are commonly addressed inbuildings. the literature as onesuitable of the most effective solutions for decreasing the imperative and crucial for saving human lives and seismographic Algeria, greenhouse gasconfiguration emissions fromofthe building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat So far,tentative a good review / assessment of the method appears , asRISK-EU opposite to the other methods (more than This study will review andRISK-EU evaluate, in particular, method forthe Arzew with duea sales. Due to case the changed climate conditions and building renovationthe policies, heat demand in future city could decrease, dozen) vulnerability assessment methods, to be by far the most suitable and applicable to the Context and consideration the following prolonging thetoinvestment returnparameters: period. seismographic configuration of Algeria, •The Geographical position: West Algeria of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand main scope of this paper isNorth to assess theoffeasibility This tentative case study will review andin evaluate, in particular, the RISK-EU method for Arzew city withofdue The district of II, Alvalade, Lisbon was used case study. The district consisted 665 •forecast. Classified in Zone averagelocated seismicity area,(Portugal), in accordance with as thea Algerian seismic Rule -isRPA99 version consideration to the following parameters: buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district 2003•renovation Geographical position: North West of Algeria th scenarios developed (shallow, To estimate theMars error,21 obtained demand values were , 2014heat (Ms=4.3 ; equivalent • The city sufferedwere several earthquakes, theintermediate, most recentdeep). one happened last •compared Classified in Zone II, average seismicity area, in accordance with the Algerian seismic Rule - RPA99 version a dynamic to VI with ≈ VIIresults as perfrom EMS 98), heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors. 2003results showed thatiswhen only is considered, theplates margin of next error to could acceptable forSea some applications •The The whole town sitting on weather the rim change between two tectonic and the be Mediterranean grand rifts , 2014 equivalent • suffered several theassessing most happened Mars 21thbuildings (the The errorcity in annual demand wasearthquakes, lower than 20% for allrecent weather scenarios However, after(Ms=4.3 introducing renovation This study is based on the results of a survey the one exposure ofconsidered). thelast Arzew city with a ;cross check scenarios, theVII error increased 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). to VI ≈ as value perresults EMS 98), up tothrough and comparison with obtained the use of another method, widely used in Algeria, named « CTC ». The The valuewhole of slope coefficient increased onbetween average within the range of 3.8% up toto8% decade, that Sea corresponds to the • town is sitting on the rim tectonic and next the per Mediterranean grand rifts This latter method is based on the assessment of thetwo extent of theplates damages. decrease inisthe number of heating hours of 22-139h duringthe theexposure heating season (depending onbuildings the combination of weather and This study based on the results of a survey assessing of the Arzew city with a cross check For clarity sake and better understanding of our results, weintercept have included in for this7.8-12.7% study a «per seismic risk map » Such renovation scenarios considered). On the other hand, function increased decade (depending on and comparison with results the use of another method, widely used in Algeria, named « CTC ».the map has been developed usingobtained a « SIGthrough method » (Geographical information system) coupled scenarios). The values suggested could be used to modify the function parameters for the scenarios considered, and This lattercontains method proposals is based on the assessment of theofextent of thecity damages. This study to enhance the protection the Arzew buildings and reduce the overall risk and exposure to improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations. For clarity sake and betterinunderstanding of our the frequent seismic activity the Mediterranean area.results, we have included in this study a « seismic risk map » Such map has been developed using a « SIG method » (Geographical information system)

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Published Elsevier Ltd. This study contains proposals tobyenhance the protection of the Arzew city buildings and reduce the overall risk and exposure to Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th on District Heating and Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific of ICOME 2015International and ICOMESymposium 2016. the frequent seismic activity in the Mediterraneancommittee area. Cooling. * Corresponding author. Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change E-mail address: [email protected] * Corresponding 1876-6102 © 2017 author. The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

E-mail address: Peer-review [email protected] responsibility of the scientific committee of ICOME 2015 and ICOME 2016. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICOME 2015 and ICOME 2016. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICOME 2015 and ICOME 2016 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.202

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© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. AOUANE Abderrahim et al. / Energy Procedia 139 (2017) 236–241 Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICOME 2015 and ICOME 2016.



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Keywords: RISK EU ; CTC ; ARZEW ; vulnerability; GIS

1-

Introduction: Arzew city situated in Algeria’s North West, has been shaken by many earthquakes, the most recent are those of March 21th, 2014 (M=4.3) and February 2nd, 2014 (M=2.9). Last ones listed were from July the 24th to august the 4th “25 shakes”. The entire city is prone to earthquakes because of the collision between the two tectonic plates and existence of many breaks at the north of the city (Mediterranean Sea). Buildings are more exposed to earthquake’s danger than citizens, this influence directly on its longevity. It’s difficult to master this risk because of its amplification and lack of maintenance. In order to mitigate the harmful consequences of a possible earthquake, it’s imperative to determinate the vulnerability of buildings to preserve human lives, buildings and hydrocarbon complexes. There are two different methods to evaluate buildings vulnerability, these methods exist since the 70’s “GNDT, AFPS2005, ATC 13, Vulniralp 1 and 2, RISK-EU”, these methods are not used in Algeria for many reasons (typological and no qualifications). The methods used are derived from the Italian method GNDT, based on vulnerability index. Our presentation will be about practicing the European method “RISK-EU” and the CTC one “Control Technique Center – constructions diagnosis” for Arzew’s city, also about rapprochement between the two methods. To perform and display the impact of seismic vulnerability on Arzew’s city, a risk map has been created with a geographic information system (GIS) as a support to help taking decisions by elected assemblies administrators, civil protection, police and other public services taking care of citizen protection and welfare. 2-

Methods approach (RISK-EU and CTC):

2.1 RISK-EU method :[10] Developed by University of Gènes (UNIGE) from vulnerability model exposed in EMS 98 and guides GNDT (GruppoNazionaleDifesadaiTerremoti). It includes two levels: • Level 01: Based on vulnerability index evaluation, vulnerability and fragility curve for a certain type of buildings. •

Level 02: Mechanic method based on dynamic modelling.

Our study will be about the first level, depending on the building typology and the factors that can alter its behavior. Vulnerability index V1 varies from 0 to 1, the maximal value represents extreme vulnerability; it’s obtained by adding these 4 indexes:

∗ : Based in typology. ∆ : Factors aggravatingvulnerability ∆ = ∑  . ∆ : Expert judgment. (Value which takes into properties of specific typologies at a regional level). ∆ : Uncertainty of typology reading and vulnerability factors.  = ∗ + ∆ + ∆ + ∆

(01)

The method expressing vulnerability is obtained with the damages probability matrix (DPM), this is the result of statistical correlation between intensity EMS 98 and caused damages degree. Average damage estimation 

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 = .    +  

.  . .



3

(02)

2.2 CTC Method: It’s a technical investigate record about construction diagnosis, a method used by the Technical Control Center « CTC » which determines the habitability by ranking the following buildings on a five levels scale (1,2,3,4,5) corresponding to the colors (green 1, green 2, orange 1, orange 2 and finally red). Analysis sheet of the CTC method contains:  General identification in formations, use and number of levels.  Observation of soil problems, foundation and infrastructures.  Damage evaluations of structural and secondary elements.  Comments on probable causes of damages.  Global evaluation of the general level of damages.  Emergency measures recommendation. After these steps, the engineers rank the following buildings following the damages to assign. Damages severity

Description

Green 1

No damages

Except furniture and broken windows

2

Green 2

Light weight damages

Cracked interior partitions, ceilings, piping damages and isolated non structural damages

3

Orange 1

modest damages

Important damages for non structural parts and small damages for structural ones

4

Orange 2

Important damages

Very important non structural damages, and important structural damages. X cracks in the bracing sails, bursting nodes « P/P ».

5

Red

Very important damages

Fallen buildings or to condemn

Level

Color

1

Table01: classification of buildings following the damage (method CTC) 4. Creating a geographic information system : To achieve a geographic information system (SIG), a combination of data related to different buildings must be extracted from the database (already designed) destined for taking decisions for specific interventions. 4.1 database creation: A mission on field has allowed us to assess the actual condition of the buildings. Throughout our field research, and forms were indicated for each building.(According to both methods). The survey form has four main components of the two methods: • Description sheet of the book, •Environmental evaluation sheet, •Structural evaluation sheet. •Functional evaluation sheet. The main data collected are shown in Table 1. Note that all the appraised buildings are made of reinforced concrete.

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4.1 Thematic analysis : Thematic analysis is the principal step of a SIG. It translates the meaning of a representation. Our analysis will be done based on  (RISK EU) and N (CTC). Table 2: Estimation of buildings proportions analyzed by districts.

District studied

Number of studied

Construction years

Damage Degree RISK –EU

Degree CTC

Tour ville Cité Ben Boulaid

6 3 8 8 22

1982 1988 1988 Before 1962 1978

D2 D3 D1 D0 D1 @ D3

N3 N3 @ N4 N2 N1 N1 @ N4

Cité Complexe

6

1982

D2 @ D3

N3

Chevrier

Ahmed ZABANA

Amir Abdelkader

5.

buildings

4 10

1956 -1980 1988

D2 D1@D2

Damage

N2 N2 @ N3

Results ans interprétations :

According to the analysis made on the basis of the CLC method, ≈ 50% of the analysed buildings are green class 1 and 2. This shows a good seismic resistance. Furthermore, 40% of buildings are orange 1 (N3) and 13% orange 2 (N4) This is explained by the influence of social settings (construction of a railway station in "Ben-Boulaid City "), lack of maintenance for the neighbourhoods '' Complexe City '' and '' Amir Abdelkader city '', the apartments in these neighbourhoods built in the 80's since they received no planning and are devoid of any maintenance system, even worse, they are rent. According to the EU RISK-method analysis, it shows that 45% of the analyzed buildings are D0 and D1 it means they incur no risk. The classified buildings D2 represent 40% (Slight damage) and 18% with moderate damage or D3.

Table 3: Comparison of Arzew’s results in % RISK EU

CTC

D0

17%

N1

17%

D1

28%

N2

30%

D2

40%

N3

40%

D3

18%

N4

13%

D4

0%

N5

0%

D5

0%

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Figures1 Thematic analysis of the methods RISK-EU (Ben-Boulaid district)

Figures 2: Thematic analysis of the methods CTC (Ben-Boulaid district) If we compare the results of the two methods, there is an almost perfect similarity between the levels N1, N2 and N3 degrees compared to D0, D1 and D2, with the exception of a few buildings N4 and D3 where the basis of the similarity no longer applies. This difference may be justified by the accuracy of the damage estimation formula comparing with the CTC method mainly based on visual observation. This difference in the two levels (N4 and D3), guided us to design a new method RISK-DZ, which takes into account the existing parameters in a method and not the other (vice-versa), all that to get similar and convincing results.

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6.

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Proposals:

Due to the structural complexity of Arzew’s buildings, vulnerability estimation became difficult, to moderate this problem, works and discussions were done to promote the new method (quick and easy) not yet experienced (ongoing research), a fusion of two RISK-EU CTC methods to generate the new method RISK-DZ. We will use the same settings as the two proposed methods, with perfect adaptation, adjustments and removal of certain items. Example: hardening the vulnerability index (Bad maintenance, RPA code level (PS54, RPA81, RPA88, RPA99, and RPA2003 following year of construction) consideration of delimited constructions soil nature (soil morphology: sagging, flick, slip, uniform compaction) and the supporting and bracing elements, influence of adjacent buildings, sealing ... .etc. 7.

CONCLUSIONS:

This study has shown that the exposure of Arzew City to Seismic risk is not insignificant, because of its peculiarity. The testing of assessment methods about the vulnerability that are developed on the basis of a post-seismic examination informed us that intervention in advance will be more judicious. Despite the historical seismicity in Algeria, the seismic risk is always a detrimental frequent phenomenon, for a better assessment of the buildings, it was essential to create a new method (RISK-DZ) adapted to the Algerian context, that will allow us a more realistic and plausible estimate. The use of risk map (SIG) with the method, provides information on the attention to be given to buildings, is still a powerful support to managers, decision makers and local officials for a deeper insight on eventual rehabilitation. Also, it would be interesting to amend this method from now, by the assessment of some important buildings in order to estimate the cost of a probable rehabilitation and estimate the eventual human losses. All decisions taken by governments for any possible rehabilitation project, will allow the reduction of seismic risk in the city of Arzew References [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14]

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