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Running on empty: The future of the automobile in an oil short world
482
Book Reviews
demand in the year 2010 to a level below that at the beginning of the 1980s. The final section offers an overview of the cost-effectiveness of relying on conservation options. Unlike most analyses of conservation, the authors treat conservation as a resource in its own right rather than simply as curtailment in response to higher prices for conventional fuels. Such an understanding is recognized as essential for a full assessment of conservation's value as an energy option. Drawing on a diversity of sources, the authors conclude that cost-effective options exist for cutting the energy consumption of buildings in half, for halving the use of oil in automobiles and for increasing industrial energy productivity so that economic growth can occur without growth in energy demand. The obstacles to exploiting these possibilities are accurately depicted as institutional as well as technical and are seen to require local, state, and national commitments in both the public and private sectors to pursue energy efficiency systematically. The authors do not propose greater energy efficiency as a panacea for U.S. energy problems nor do they pretend to have dealt with all aspects of recent energy conditions, prospects, and policy options. They have nonetheless provided a persuasive assessment of the opportunities for energy efficiency, the actions necessary to exploit these opportunities, and the contributions conservation can make in the transition to a sustainable energy future. In the four years since publication, the importance of the authors' argument has not diminished. Indeed, recent experience would seem to further support their conclusion that "in every area of energy, conservation remains the cheapest, most productive, most reliable, fastest, and safest alternative." Their proposition that energy efficiency should be the first priority of U.S. energy policy remains well supported. It is disconcerting, however, to recognize how little responsiveness there has been to this priority in the last four years. Conservation is still undervalued and investment in federal conservation programs has been drastically reduced. At the same time, U.S. energy policy has continued to be based on a fallacious assumption that increased energy production is essential to meet an inevitable escalation in demand required for economic growth. In this environment, there remain many lessons to be learned from the thoughtful analysis provided by Gibbons and Chandler and this book deserves a careful and sincere review within the U.S. energy policy community. Daniel Rich Center for Energy and Urban Policy Research University of Delaware Newark, Delaware 19716
Running On Empty: The Future of the Automobile in an Oil Short World(1979) by L. R. Brown, C. Flavin, and C. Norman. W. W. Norton, New York (U.S. $7.95)
Technological prophecy is a risky undertaking; the march of events may prove you wrong. Here we have an extended prediction regarding the future of the private automobile which is not so much wrong as premature. The authors are senior researchers at the Worldwatch Institute, self-appointed mine canary to the planet, an organization with a commendable record of brief, farsighted publications in areas of environmental concern. Their book appeared in late 1979, shortly after the deposition o f the Shah of Iran, as gasoline prices resumed their seemingly unending upward spiral and domestic auto production plunged to new postwar lows. As befits the emotional climate of the time, it is black with pessimism and full of dire alarms. It paints a future of growing deprivation, in which disaffected motorists queue up for the privilege o f filling their tanks at $50 a turn. Now, five years later, such talk seems almost foolish. Nothing of the kind has happened. Imported crude oil costs less today than it did in 1980. Auto manufacturers continue to post record profits. What went wrong? How did sensible, competent, well-informed researchers arrive at conclusions so at variance with subsequent events? Why should we harken to t h e s e - o r any o t h e r - c r i e s of "Wolf"? The answer of course is that there is no single answer. At least four factors conspired to upset the gloomy scenarios of Brown, Flavin, and Norman. Chief among these are the i n t e r v e n t i o n i s t - o n e could scarcely call them laissez-faire-policies of the Reagan administration, which awarded the domestic auto industry overt subsidies in the form of loan guarantees and covert subsidies in the form of relaxed emission and safety standards, willingness to accept a deteriorating balance of payments, trade restrictions on imported autos, and military support to keep oil shipping lanes open. The industry itself, in an unparalleled display of chutzpah, succeeded in wringing favorable wage concessions from its captive labor force. Accelerated extraction from Alaskan, Mexican, and North Sea oil fields lessened American dependence on OPEC oil, while internal dissension among OPEC members undermined Western belief in the monolithic nature of that cartel. And finally, American motorists displayed hitherto unsuspected elasticity in their demand for gasoline. The result has been a sort of "Indian summer" for the American petropig, a temporary interlude of specious vitality sustained by federal largesse and the skillful exploitation o f transient advantage. Yes, Virginia, they still build Lincoln Continentals, and more to the point, they still sell them. But if Running On Empty has proved false in the short run, it will just as surely prove correct in the long run. The central thesis--that petroleum allocation will eventually be governed by a "depletion psychology" in which the private automobile is accorded relatively low priority - c a n scarcely be denied. Regardless of ideology or degree of economic development, it is argued, national governments will necessarily give preference to less readily displaceable uses of petroleum, such as freight transpor-
Book Reviews
483
tation, space heating, and energy-intensive agriculture. Population growth will only exacerbate this trend. Alternative fuels face severe economic, technical, and social obstacles that will limit their widespread use. The argument is buttressed at many points by adumbrations from the industrialized nations of Europe and southeast Asia. In short, the private automobile must undergo a fundamental transformation in both design and role. One can dispute the time scale of this transformation, but one cannot dispute its inevitability. The book is not without its shortcomings, however, and indeed one could scarcely expect comprehensive treatment of so complex a topic within the space of a hundred pages. The principal failing is that it is descriptive rather than prescriptive. Problems are identified, and technological solutions to a few of them are briefly discussed, but the difficult issues of social and political implementation are never seriously addressed. Gasoline r a t i o n i n g - a self-evident political solution if ever there was o n e - r e c e i v e s no mention, and less draconian measures in the realm of behavior modification, such as incentives to ride-sharing, go largely unremarked. More fundamentally still, the capitalist premise that the automobile is and must forever remain an item of private property is never examined, despite the obvious advantages o f shared conveyances (shopping carts!) in highdensity conurbations. Readers of this journal will be disappointed in the scant treatment of environmental and ecological concerns, including the most immediate public health issues such as death and injury rates. And the argument is marred by an occasional piece of voodoo physics, such as the assertion that tires are being redesigned "to cut down drag from road surfaces." Nevertheless, this is a useful little volume. It provides an admirably concise historical summary of the automobile's rise to dominance in the transportation sector. The main outlines o f the forthcoming Age of Oil Depletion are sketched with clarity and insight. The narrative is dense with facts, most o f which retain their relevance and all of which are thoroughly documented. And at $7.95 in h a r d c o v e r s - l e s s than the price of a calendar these d a y s - it is a great bargain. Let us show our appreciation by welcoming it to our shelves, and above all, let us heed the lessons it offers. Edward A. Fagen Department of Electrical Engineering University of Delaware Newark, Delaware 19711
The Human Impact: Man's Role in Environmental Change (1982) by Andrew Goudie. The MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA (316 pp., U.S. $22.50 cloth, $10.00 paper) As the title suggests, this is an overview of human impact on the environment. The author, Andrew Goudie, is a
lecturer in Geography at Oxford University and the book is a product of his research and teaching there. Apparently, much of the material has been used in undergraduate lectures for several years at Oxford, but some of it has been especially prepared for the text. The book presents a careful and balanced view of human impact on the environment. Organized in eight chapters, the coverage extends to" vegetation, animals, soil, water, the landscape, the atmosphere, and the climate. There is an introductory chapter to put into perspective the development of the human race and its capability to impact the environment, and a final chapter to put a summary perspective on the issue. As with other interdisciplinary treatments the coverage on any single topic is limited to an overview, but the presentation of ideas and the transmission of information is excellent for a work of this nature. The text is well illustrated and filled with tables and quantitative data. The list of references is excellent, constituting an overview of the general literature in the field, and the index seems well prepared. With these features in mind, this reviewer would be glad to use the book as a text in an introductory undergraduate course on environmental problems. The coverage of the main topics is balanced in terms of pages devoted to each subject, and the author presents many interesting and illustrative examples. For example, in the chapter on animals, there is an interesting diagram showing the decline of the range of the bison in North America from pre- 1800 to the present. In the chapter on soils there is a discussion of the desertification effects of unwise soils management, with illustrations from areas with current problems, such as the African continent. In the chapter on water there is a discussion of water pollution with data and illustrations from several countries. The chapter on climate and the atmosphere contains a discussion of several important topics such as the carbon dioxide problem and air pollution. The inevitable consequence of such broad treatment of many topics is the disappointment the reader will feel in a search for really meaty information on specific subjects. The author has apparently drawn most of his material from other general works rather than from his own original research, or in most cases, original sources. The result of this is inadequate treatment of some important topics which would be desirable in an introductory text on the problems of the environment. One subject that needs more attention, for example, is acid rain and chemical deposition. Another is the general problem of toxic substances in water. The author concludes with some interesting observations and discussion. He points out that, although we tend to think that environmental problems began in the 20th century, early civilizations had significant effects, particularly by the use of fire. In fact, the author seems to suggest that the general and cumulative effects of agriculture are o f extraordinary importance, compared to industrial effects, in the overall impact on humans. The
Book Reviews
demand in the year 2010 to a level below that at the beginning of the 1980s. The final section offers an overview of the cost-effectiveness of relying on conservation options. Unlike most analyses of conservation, the authors treat conservation as a resource in its own right rather than simply as curtailment in response to higher prices for conventional fuels. Such an understanding is recognized as essential for a full assessment of conservation's value as an energy option. Drawing on a diversity of sources, the authors conclude that cost-effective options exist for cutting the energy consumption of buildings in half, for halving the use of oil in automobiles and for increasing industrial energy productivity so that economic growth can occur without growth in energy demand. The obstacles to exploiting these possibilities are accurately depicted as institutional as well as technical and are seen to require local, state, and national commitments in both the public and private sectors to pursue energy efficiency systematically. The authors do not propose greater energy efficiency as a panacea for U.S. energy problems nor do they pretend to have dealt with all aspects of recent energy conditions, prospects, and policy options. They have nonetheless provided a persuasive assessment of the opportunities for energy efficiency, the actions necessary to exploit these opportunities, and the contributions conservation can make in the transition to a sustainable energy future. In the four years since publication, the importance of the authors' argument has not diminished. Indeed, recent experience would seem to further support their conclusion that "in every area of energy, conservation remains the cheapest, most productive, most reliable, fastest, and safest alternative." Their proposition that energy efficiency should be the first priority of U.S. energy policy remains well supported. It is disconcerting, however, to recognize how little responsiveness there has been to this priority in the last four years. Conservation is still undervalued and investment in federal conservation programs has been drastically reduced. At the same time, U.S. energy policy has continued to be based on a fallacious assumption that increased energy production is essential to meet an inevitable escalation in demand required for economic growth. In this environment, there remain many lessons to be learned from the thoughtful analysis provided by Gibbons and Chandler and this book deserves a careful and sincere review within the U.S. energy policy community. Daniel Rich Center for Energy and Urban Policy Research University of Delaware Newark, Delaware 19716
Running On Empty: The Future of the Automobile in an Oil Short World(1979) by L. R. Brown, C. Flavin, and C. Norman. W. W. Norton, New York (U.S. $7.95)
Technological prophecy is a risky undertaking; the march of events may prove you wrong. Here we have an extended prediction regarding the future of the private automobile which is not so much wrong as premature. The authors are senior researchers at the Worldwatch Institute, self-appointed mine canary to the planet, an organization with a commendable record of brief, farsighted publications in areas of environmental concern. Their book appeared in late 1979, shortly after the deposition o f the Shah of Iran, as gasoline prices resumed their seemingly unending upward spiral and domestic auto production plunged to new postwar lows. As befits the emotional climate of the time, it is black with pessimism and full of dire alarms. It paints a future of growing deprivation, in which disaffected motorists queue up for the privilege o f filling their tanks at $50 a turn. Now, five years later, such talk seems almost foolish. Nothing of the kind has happened. Imported crude oil costs less today than it did in 1980. Auto manufacturers continue to post record profits. What went wrong? How did sensible, competent, well-informed researchers arrive at conclusions so at variance with subsequent events? Why should we harken to t h e s e - o r any o t h e r - c r i e s of "Wolf"? The answer of course is that there is no single answer. At least four factors conspired to upset the gloomy scenarios of Brown, Flavin, and Norman. Chief among these are the i n t e r v e n t i o n i s t - o n e could scarcely call them laissez-faire-policies of the Reagan administration, which awarded the domestic auto industry overt subsidies in the form of loan guarantees and covert subsidies in the form of relaxed emission and safety standards, willingness to accept a deteriorating balance of payments, trade restrictions on imported autos, and military support to keep oil shipping lanes open. The industry itself, in an unparalleled display of chutzpah, succeeded in wringing favorable wage concessions from its captive labor force. Accelerated extraction from Alaskan, Mexican, and North Sea oil fields lessened American dependence on OPEC oil, while internal dissension among OPEC members undermined Western belief in the monolithic nature of that cartel. And finally, American motorists displayed hitherto unsuspected elasticity in their demand for gasoline. The result has been a sort of "Indian summer" for the American petropig, a temporary interlude of specious vitality sustained by federal largesse and the skillful exploitation o f transient advantage. Yes, Virginia, they still build Lincoln Continentals, and more to the point, they still sell them. But if Running On Empty has proved false in the short run, it will just as surely prove correct in the long run. The central thesis--that petroleum allocation will eventually be governed by a "depletion psychology" in which the private automobile is accorded relatively low priority - c a n scarcely be denied. Regardless of ideology or degree of economic development, it is argued, national governments will necessarily give preference to less readily displaceable uses of petroleum, such as freight transpor-
Book Reviews
483
tation, space heating, and energy-intensive agriculture. Population growth will only exacerbate this trend. Alternative fuels face severe economic, technical, and social obstacles that will limit their widespread use. The argument is buttressed at many points by adumbrations from the industrialized nations of Europe and southeast Asia. In short, the private automobile must undergo a fundamental transformation in both design and role. One can dispute the time scale of this transformation, but one cannot dispute its inevitability. The book is not without its shortcomings, however, and indeed one could scarcely expect comprehensive treatment of so complex a topic within the space of a hundred pages. The principal failing is that it is descriptive rather than prescriptive. Problems are identified, and technological solutions to a few of them are briefly discussed, but the difficult issues of social and political implementation are never seriously addressed. Gasoline r a t i o n i n g - a self-evident political solution if ever there was o n e - r e c e i v e s no mention, and less draconian measures in the realm of behavior modification, such as incentives to ride-sharing, go largely unremarked. More fundamentally still, the capitalist premise that the automobile is and must forever remain an item of private property is never examined, despite the obvious advantages o f shared conveyances (shopping carts!) in highdensity conurbations. Readers of this journal will be disappointed in the scant treatment of environmental and ecological concerns, including the most immediate public health issues such as death and injury rates. And the argument is marred by an occasional piece of voodoo physics, such as the assertion that tires are being redesigned "to cut down drag from road surfaces." Nevertheless, this is a useful little volume. It provides an admirably concise historical summary of the automobile's rise to dominance in the transportation sector. The main outlines o f the forthcoming Age of Oil Depletion are sketched with clarity and insight. The narrative is dense with facts, most o f which retain their relevance and all of which are thoroughly documented. And at $7.95 in h a r d c o v e r s - l e s s than the price of a calendar these d a y s - it is a great bargain. Let us show our appreciation by welcoming it to our shelves, and above all, let us heed the lessons it offers. Edward A. Fagen Department of Electrical Engineering University of Delaware Newark, Delaware 19711
The Human Impact: Man's Role in Environmental Change (1982) by Andrew Goudie. The MIT Press,
Cambridge, MA (316 pp., U.S. $22.50 cloth, $10.00 paper) As the title suggests, this is an overview of human impact on the environment. The author, Andrew Goudie, is a
lecturer in Geography at Oxford University and the book is a product of his research and teaching there. Apparently, much of the material has been used in undergraduate lectures for several years at Oxford, but some of it has been especially prepared for the text. The book presents a careful and balanced view of human impact on the environment. Organized in eight chapters, the coverage extends to" vegetation, animals, soil, water, the landscape, the atmosphere, and the climate. There is an introductory chapter to put into perspective the development of the human race and its capability to impact the environment, and a final chapter to put a summary perspective on the issue. As with other interdisciplinary treatments the coverage on any single topic is limited to an overview, but the presentation of ideas and the transmission of information is excellent for a work of this nature. The text is well illustrated and filled with tables and quantitative data. The list of references is excellent, constituting an overview of the general literature in the field, and the index seems well prepared. With these features in mind, this reviewer would be glad to use the book as a text in an introductory undergraduate course on environmental problems. The coverage of the main topics is balanced in terms of pages devoted to each subject, and the author presents many interesting and illustrative examples. For example, in the chapter on animals, there is an interesting diagram showing the decline of the range of the bison in North America from pre- 1800 to the present. In the chapter on soils there is a discussion of the desertification effects of unwise soils management, with illustrations from areas with current problems, such as the African continent. In the chapter on water there is a discussion of water pollution with data and illustrations from several countries. The chapter on climate and the atmosphere contains a discussion of several important topics such as the carbon dioxide problem and air pollution. The inevitable consequence of such broad treatment of many topics is the disappointment the reader will feel in a search for really meaty information on specific subjects. The author has apparently drawn most of his material from other general works rather than from his own original research, or in most cases, original sources. The result of this is inadequate treatment of some important topics which would be desirable in an introductory text on the problems of the environment. One subject that needs more attention, for example, is acid rain and chemical deposition. Another is the general problem of toxic substances in water. The author concludes with some interesting observations and discussion. He points out that, although we tend to think that environmental problems began in the 20th century, early civilizations had significant effects, particularly by the use of fire. In fact, the author seems to suggest that the general and cumulative effects of agriculture are o f extraordinary importance, compared to industrial effects, in the overall impact on humans. The