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Scenarios and strategic management
421
Book reviews
Having established the importance of technology as a strategic weapon (Michael Porter is quoted on this front in nearly every chapter), and also having argued
that technology
strategies
can alter
market
structures.
there
is unfortu-
nately very little progress made beyond existing theorization of corporate strategies for technology. Indeed, some of the authors appear unaware of some of the important work undertaken in the area. No chapter, for example, refers to the research of David Teece and David Mowery. Technology is only one of the issues addressed and the book successfully considers a number of important themes. Particularly germane is the considerable emphasis placed on the sheer enormity of the task of achieving strategic change. Research by Doz and Prahalad in 16 large multinational companies reports that, following strategy formulation, their implementation takes between three and ten years. Interestingly, there is a general consensus concerning the potential for strategic
change
attained
authors concur that new executives with To conclude; all merit. They address
through
changes
of top
management.
Most
of the
strategic change is in fact dependent on the appointment of novel policies for formulating and realizing strategy. of the individual chapters in this book have considerable a wide range of issues. and are based on a wide range of
scctoral studies. It is as a series of excellent individual studies that the book has to bc judged. The editor, and the organizers of the original seminar, have to be congratulated on compiling such an intcrcsting compendium. It is the very and of research in the arca generally, that heterogeneity of the contributions, prevents the overall contribution of the book transcending the value of the sum of its parts. Mark
Scenarios und Strufegic Munugemerrt, Kent, Michel
U.K.,
Godct
awarded
by Michcl Godct. f27.50,
ISBN
Buttcrworths,
Sevenoaks,
O-408-028940-4.
of Prospcctivc and Strategic Planning at the dcs Arts et Metiers. The French edition of Scenurios und Monugement won the 1985 Grund Prix Ilurvurd L’Expunsion, which is by a committee of French managers who have graduated from Harvard
Conservatoire
Strutegic
210 pages, hardcover
Dodgson
is Professor
National
Business School. A further accolade is provided his Foreword to the book, states:
by Professor Iger Ansoff who, in
“This book is also welcome us an important step in a ‘reverse lend-leuse ’ process in management thought and theory. (For 30 years after World War II major American munugement thought, theory, and techniques huve been virtually nil.) Since the 1Y7cb the U.S. A. bus begun to import and experiment with management techniques from Japan. The time bus come to sturt importing the results of vigorous, significant and idiosyncrutic developments which have been tuking pluce in Europe and the U.K. This book by Professor Coder is a mujor milestone in the history of these developments.”
4”_a
Book
reviews
In his introduction to the book, Godet contends that the combined effects of three factors in particular make futures studies especially important. These are the acceleration
of technical,
economic
and social change; organisational
and
behavioural inertial factors; and rising technical, political, social and economic uncertainties. It is through achieving synergy between the ‘futures studies’ and ‘strategic management’ methods that these uncertainties can best be coped with. To be successful, a third dimension must be added, which is “a joint commitment to facing the dual challenge of both surrounding strategic objectives”. Traditional
forecasting
methods
environmental
have met with
threats little
and opportunities
success exept in those
cases where the future has been rather certain; they have been unable to cope with discontinuities, e.g. the 1973 oil crisis. Where the future is ‘multiple and uncertain’, what Godet calls the prospcctiue approach is required. This approach “accepts that there is a multiplicity of possible futures at any given time and that the interplay between the various protagonists and their respective intentions. How the future evolves is explained as much by human action as by the influence of causalities”. Chapter II describes the scenario method of forecasting the future and is based on Godet’s experience leading the Department of Futures Studies at the SEMA Matra Consulting Group between 1974 and lY7Y. It describes the requirements and objectives of the scenario method; how to construct the ‘base’ (i.c. an image of the present state of the system. which will serve as a starting study); and how to build scenarios.
point for a futures
Chapter Ill describes how to identify the key variables using the technique of structural analysis, which concerns the network of relationships between the set of interrclatcd clcmcnts that comprise the ‘system’. This is quite a technical chapter
which
MICMAC
demonstrates
method.
how
Chapter
IV
to search
for
the
key variables
using
the
is titled
“Understanding the actors’ stratcgics: analysis of past and future plans” and Chapter V, “Reducing uncertainty: expert consensus. Both chapters provide the reader with a variety of useful techniques and practical examples. Chapters VI-XI form Part 2 of the book, which is about strategic management. There are chapters on: origins and aims of strategic management; classical diagnosis;
strategic
positioning
of the business
options; from strategic management diagnoses to genuine remedies. This recommendations.
These
are
built
portfolio;
to strategic final, rather around
the choice of strategic
culture; and from correct brief chapter, offers three
questioning
preconceived
banking on the human factor in the search for competitiveness and considering
methods
as tools
for
thought
and
ideas;
and excellence;
communication.
Godet
concludes:
“To win the fight for external comperitiveness, top munngement must first assure itself of a minimum collective adherence IO the fundumenrul elements of a strategy and an adequately explicit corporate plun. For u company, the
Book reviews
423
external front and the internal front constitute the same, single, segment. The battle can only be won on both fronts simultaneously, all. ”
strategic or not at
Scenarios and Strategic Management is an interesting, useful and highly readable book. The rather philosophical French approach is most refreshing and the bibliography exposes the reader to a rich variety of French thought in this area. My feelings on completing the book parallel those of Professor Ansoff as expressed in his Foreword, and quoted earlier in this review. Roy Rothwell
Managing Technological Innovation: Organizational Strategies for Implementing Advanced Manufacturing Technologies, by Donald D. Davis and Associates, Jossey-Bass
Publishers
(The
Jossey-Bass
Management
Series),
19S6. xxi + 302
pages, hardback f29.00. In this book various authors, including scholars in organizational theory and experts in CAD/CAM and advanced manufacturing techniques, examine why the U.S.A. has failed to some extent in implementing new technologies and in attempting to offer concrete stratcgics for the adoption of advanced manufacturing methods. The book is divided into three parts: I. Innovation
in OrganiiNions:
Obstacles and Opportunities
2. Managing the Implcmcntation of Advanced Tcchnologics 3. Strategic Planning and Business lssucs (four chapters) The
book is aimed at three varying types of rcadcrs;
(three chapters) (four chapters)
firstly
those who teach
undergraduates and postgraduates who are studying technology, manufacturing and management and who are also conducting research in these areas; secondly production and marketing managers dealing with advanced manufacturing methods; and thirdly policy makers concerned with the diffusion of advanced manufacturing technologies. The author suggests that organizations which have succeeded in the present highly competitive international climate arc those that have reached success by matching organizational structure, strategy and technology. Reading this book will raise many questions, for some of its contents may be considered provocative, but it should make teachers and managers think carefully about the points under discussion. The chapters are well referenced and the index is adequate for the book. The price is high but I believe it to be reasonable for the type of reader at whom it is aimed: it is unlikely to be bought by individual students but ought to be in the libraries of their institutions. It should also find a place in the offices of senior and middle management who are concerned with the new manufacturing technologies. G. Hayward
Book reviews
Having established the importance of technology as a strategic weapon (Michael Porter is quoted on this front in nearly every chapter), and also having argued
that technology
strategies
can alter
market
structures.
there
is unfortu-
nately very little progress made beyond existing theorization of corporate strategies for technology. Indeed, some of the authors appear unaware of some of the important work undertaken in the area. No chapter, for example, refers to the research of David Teece and David Mowery. Technology is only one of the issues addressed and the book successfully considers a number of important themes. Particularly germane is the considerable emphasis placed on the sheer enormity of the task of achieving strategic change. Research by Doz and Prahalad in 16 large multinational companies reports that, following strategy formulation, their implementation takes between three and ten years. Interestingly, there is a general consensus concerning the potential for strategic
change
attained
authors concur that new executives with To conclude; all merit. They address
through
changes
of top
management.
Most
of the
strategic change is in fact dependent on the appointment of novel policies for formulating and realizing strategy. of the individual chapters in this book have considerable a wide range of issues. and are based on a wide range of
scctoral studies. It is as a series of excellent individual studies that the book has to bc judged. The editor, and the organizers of the original seminar, have to be congratulated on compiling such an intcrcsting compendium. It is the very and of research in the arca generally, that heterogeneity of the contributions, prevents the overall contribution of the book transcending the value of the sum of its parts. Mark
Scenarios und Strufegic Munugemerrt, Kent, Michel
U.K.,
Godct
awarded
by Michcl Godct. f27.50,
ISBN
Buttcrworths,
Sevenoaks,
O-408-028940-4.
of Prospcctivc and Strategic Planning at the dcs Arts et Metiers. The French edition of Scenurios und Monugement won the 1985 Grund Prix Ilurvurd L’Expunsion, which is by a committee of French managers who have graduated from Harvard
Conservatoire
Strutegic
210 pages, hardcover
Dodgson
is Professor
National
Business School. A further accolade is provided his Foreword to the book, states:
by Professor Iger Ansoff who, in
“This book is also welcome us an important step in a ‘reverse lend-leuse ’ process in management thought and theory. (For 30 years after World War II major American munugement thought, theory, and techniques huve been virtually nil.) Since the 1Y7cb the U.S. A. bus begun to import and experiment with management techniques from Japan. The time bus come to sturt importing the results of vigorous, significant and idiosyncrutic developments which have been tuking pluce in Europe and the U.K. This book by Professor Coder is a mujor milestone in the history of these developments.”
4”_a
Book
reviews
In his introduction to the book, Godet contends that the combined effects of three factors in particular make futures studies especially important. These are the acceleration
of technical,
economic
and social change; organisational
and
behavioural inertial factors; and rising technical, political, social and economic uncertainties. It is through achieving synergy between the ‘futures studies’ and ‘strategic management’ methods that these uncertainties can best be coped with. To be successful, a third dimension must be added, which is “a joint commitment to facing the dual challenge of both surrounding strategic objectives”. Traditional
forecasting
methods
environmental
have met with
threats little
and opportunities
success exept in those
cases where the future has been rather certain; they have been unable to cope with discontinuities, e.g. the 1973 oil crisis. Where the future is ‘multiple and uncertain’, what Godet calls the prospcctiue approach is required. This approach “accepts that there is a multiplicity of possible futures at any given time and that the interplay between the various protagonists and their respective intentions. How the future evolves is explained as much by human action as by the influence of causalities”. Chapter II describes the scenario method of forecasting the future and is based on Godet’s experience leading the Department of Futures Studies at the SEMA Matra Consulting Group between 1974 and lY7Y. It describes the requirements and objectives of the scenario method; how to construct the ‘base’ (i.c. an image of the present state of the system. which will serve as a starting study); and how to build scenarios.
point for a futures
Chapter Ill describes how to identify the key variables using the technique of structural analysis, which concerns the network of relationships between the set of interrclatcd clcmcnts that comprise the ‘system’. This is quite a technical chapter
which
MICMAC
demonstrates
method.
how
Chapter
IV
to search
for
the
key variables
using
the
is titled
“Understanding the actors’ stratcgics: analysis of past and future plans” and Chapter V, “Reducing uncertainty: expert consensus. Both chapters provide the reader with a variety of useful techniques and practical examples. Chapters VI-XI form Part 2 of the book, which is about strategic management. There are chapters on: origins and aims of strategic management; classical diagnosis;
strategic
positioning
of the business
options; from strategic management diagnoses to genuine remedies. This recommendations.
These
are
built
portfolio;
to strategic final, rather around
the choice of strategic
culture; and from correct brief chapter, offers three
questioning
preconceived
banking on the human factor in the search for competitiveness and considering
methods
as tools
for
thought
and
ideas;
and excellence;
communication.
Godet
concludes:
“To win the fight for external comperitiveness, top munngement must first assure itself of a minimum collective adherence IO the fundumenrul elements of a strategy and an adequately explicit corporate plun. For u company, the
Book reviews
423
external front and the internal front constitute the same, single, segment. The battle can only be won on both fronts simultaneously, all. ”
strategic or not at
Scenarios and Strategic Management is an interesting, useful and highly readable book. The rather philosophical French approach is most refreshing and the bibliography exposes the reader to a rich variety of French thought in this area. My feelings on completing the book parallel those of Professor Ansoff as expressed in his Foreword, and quoted earlier in this review. Roy Rothwell
Managing Technological Innovation: Organizational Strategies for Implementing Advanced Manufacturing Technologies, by Donald D. Davis and Associates, Jossey-Bass
Publishers
(The
Jossey-Bass
Management
Series),
19S6. xxi + 302
pages, hardback f29.00. In this book various authors, including scholars in organizational theory and experts in CAD/CAM and advanced manufacturing techniques, examine why the U.S.A. has failed to some extent in implementing new technologies and in attempting to offer concrete stratcgics for the adoption of advanced manufacturing methods. The book is divided into three parts: I. Innovation
in OrganiiNions:
Obstacles and Opportunities
2. Managing the Implcmcntation of Advanced Tcchnologics 3. Strategic Planning and Business lssucs (four chapters) The
book is aimed at three varying types of rcadcrs;
(three chapters) (four chapters)
firstly
those who teach
undergraduates and postgraduates who are studying technology, manufacturing and management and who are also conducting research in these areas; secondly production and marketing managers dealing with advanced manufacturing methods; and thirdly policy makers concerned with the diffusion of advanced manufacturing technologies. The author suggests that organizations which have succeeded in the present highly competitive international climate arc those that have reached success by matching organizational structure, strategy and technology. Reading this book will raise many questions, for some of its contents may be considered provocative, but it should make teachers and managers think carefully about the points under discussion. The chapters are well referenced and the index is adequate for the book. The price is high but I believe it to be reasonable for the type of reader at whom it is aimed: it is unlikely to be bought by individual students but ought to be in the libraries of their institutions. It should also find a place in the offices of senior and middle management who are concerned with the new manufacturing technologies. G. Hayward