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Science and technology–applied systems analysis approach
SYSTEM S AN ALYSIS IN R ESEA R CH AND D EV ELO PM EN T
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY -A PPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS APPROACH G.M. Dobrov International Institute f o r A pplied Systems Analysis (IIA SA ), L a x en b u rg , Austria R esearch Scholar, IIASA
THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM
SANT, one must bear in mind that in this case we do not deal with traditionally practised engineering judgements but with "systems assessments " , in which all the basic features of m o d ern systems analysis are inherent:
Within the framework of systems analysis technology is understood as: (a) a specific system that consists of technical means ("hardware"), principles and methods of their effective operation ("software" or "knowhow"), and special organization ("orgware") to include decision makers' professional skills and provide interaction of this sytem with other various systems;
the multifaceted nature of the factors, properties, and consequences examined; an interdisciplinary and interinstitutional approach; attention, not only to near, but also to remote effects, needs and possibilities; the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis of situations and objects; and an orientation toward the practice of decision making.
(b) a man-made environment and m a t e rialized knowledge which pe rmanently modifies the volume and structure of available natural resources and mankinds' p ossibilities? and
Further, we should note that the definition of "new " presupposes attention to phenomena arising or potentially possible as a result of the use of the latest achievements of Science, and that the concept of Technology is used in the above mentioned system sense. The composition of SANT involved the following:
(c) a process of organized activity and a holistic object of management on the different levels of decision making. This activity results in new or transformed technological possibilities. Management of processes of r esearch, development, and transfer of innovations is referred to as "management of technological changes " . The processes of forming and implementing ST policy, including the acquisition, distribution, and u tilization of technological results, is also known as a process of managing technological advance .
- Technological Forecasts; - Evaluation of the consequences of the development of technology (Technology A s s e s s m e n t ) ; - Comparison of the variants for technological policy (Alternative T e c h n o l o g i e s ) ; - Evaluation of the "usefulness" of contemplated and on-going r e search and development efforts (Evaluation of R £ D ) ; and
In the case in which we use criteria, priorities, and ideas - including data from the sphere of socioeconomic and general policy - to evaluate needs and examine values, we can^ speak about assessment of technological progress .
- Various "indicators" of the level of ST potential of countries and regions (Science-andtechnology Indicators).
The Systems Assessment of New Technology (SANT) is the special analysis and evaluation of technologies and their interactions with nature and society from the systems point of view. To understand the essence of
In other words, SANT is a system of data for the basing of ST management decisions (see Fig. 1).
65
66
G.M. Dobrov
GENERAL POLICY AND ECONOMY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
I
I
Data about Needs and Values
Management of Technological Advance
Management of Technological Progress
Fig. 1 A MODEL FOR SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF NEW TECHNOLOGY The model* is intended to include the ideas of specialists, quantitative assessments of events and possibilities, and also the qualitative peculiarities of the logic of the development of the chosen ST area. The development of computer science and technology in the model are concerned with four levels of research and engineering activity: (a) exploratory research, the forming of the "portfolio" of new ideas for further development; (b) applied research and development directed toward discovery of methods for practical use in technology of the already projected possibilities and established principles; (c) sphere which seeks economically and technologically effective methods for the realization of work at levels (a) and (b) in conditions of real production; *V.M. Glushkov, "0 prognozirovanii na osnove ekspertnykh o t s e n o k " , Kibernetika (1969), N o . 2, G.M. Dobrov, et al., Ekspertnye otsenki v nauchnotechnicheskom prognozirovanii (Kiev: Naukova Dumka, 1974).
(d) technology transfer and the utilization of "technological changes" in regular practice. The methodology consists of informational and mathematical procedures for constructing and analysing a basic graph which illuminates the generalized perception of a large group of specialists about needs, possibilities, and resources for progress in a definite area of R S D. The organizers of this SANT use a goal-oriented and multistage expert inquiry in striving to clarify and formulate the set of expected and needed events. The events reflect the conditions for achievement of each level of progress in the area. Each such event is accompanied by a system of quantitative estimates (t-; - the expected time of occurrence or event j; Pij (t) - the relative probability of the transition of events from condition i to condition j in time t; C^j - an estimate of the cost of realizing the indicated elementary step of technological progress; Z^j the relative importance of the i-tn event as one of the conditions for occurrence of event j ). The sequence followed in constructing the graph amounts to "extending" some problem (the final goal of the program) from the future down into the present, creating a structure of intermediate
Science and Technology - Applied Systems Analysis Approach
Fig. events and fixing cause-effect relations among them. Development of ST is modelled by means of a combination of several formal transformations of the graph (see Fig. 2): I - introduction (or removal) of events which reflect possibilities for achievement of p r e viously established goals; II - introduction of new formulations of conditions or d escriptions of new sub-goals; III - reconstruction of connections (establishment liquidation of
of the network among the events of new ones or existing o n e s ) ;
IV - changes in the set of quantitative characteristics of the events in the graph.* *An important element in the information included in this system is data about specialists and organizations which are ready to perform d i f ferent tasks or are relevant to such a type of activity.
67
2 PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE The methodology based on these ideas has received the name "Programmatic Methodology for Technological Forecasting" . In 1971 it was approved by the collegium of the State Committee on Science and Technology of the USSR as the basic methodological instrument for SANT. Since 1975, the CMEA countries have had a joint Methodology for Multinational Work in Technological Forecasting created on the basis of the "Programmatic Methodology" but utilizing the CMEA countries' experience with forecasting. With the help of these methodologies, in various ST stages, assessments are now being obtained which are practically related to all the elements of SANT: prognostic technological data; estimates of the possible influence of scientific and technical achievements; comparison of variants of technological policy; comparison and evaluation of R £ D projects at the stage of their inclusion in plans and programs; and advance estimation of the ST potential which could be drawn
68
G.M. Dobrov
in for performance of expedient ef forts. The practice of working with the model can be characterized in the following way. A representative sample of experts, often numbering in the hundreds (with variable membership in each round of the inquiry) puts forward technological conditions for the achievement of a certain level of goals and sub-goals. The procedure of expert estimation continues until it reaches such conditions as the use of already extant R S D results, the implementation of an already patented solution, the introduction of an innovation which can be bought on license, etc. This operation is known as "grounding" the graph. The networks of hypotheses which are constructed in this way include thousands of events and serve to systematize a great deal of information about ST ideas and possibilities. Such a formalized presentation of the generalized opinion of specialists possesses a number of non-trivial properties. There are sets of algorithms and p r o grams for different specific compositions of data and different functions of SANT. They make it possible to perform a qualitative analysis of the chains of interconnected events from a common viewpoint and to carry out quantitative computations of their characteristics with compatible estimates. This analysis embraces data about goals and sub-goals, paths to their achievement, the resources required for this, and the existing ST potential. One of the most important properties of the model examined here is the possibility of working with the graph with the help of a new type of dialogue - a dialogue between "man, information system, and the community of specialists". The graph allows the analysts to play out the situation and thus test a series of hypotheses of the type: what kind of consequences could be expected in the program from occurrence of event j in the period ± A t? or how does the absolute probability of achieving goal S change if the relative probability of transition from event i to event j turns out to equal zero (failure). Under the influence of information newly entered into the system, periodic revision is performed on the previously made estimates, forecast variants, and decisions. The results of such an analysis can give the system "reason" for re-examining one or
another part of the plan of practical actions and for discussing the newly formed situation on an informal level. Use of the model's indicated capability for "self-improvement" and "selfinstruction" opens up especially favorable prospects for formation of a new methodology for the planning and management of ST changes. Its basic features are as follows: - providing a single set of decisions, embracing research work on various levels, development work, and the technical improvement of production; - making key management decisions under conditions of fuller knowledge and with the use of calculated analytic bases; - carrying out decision making as a permanent procedure, i.e., at any moment of the 15 year plan it will be possible to up-date current decisions in light of the long-range perspective; - obtaining a single methodological substantiation for the choice of goals, for assessment of dynamics of technological change, for long-range program design, and for the distribution of resources; - making it possible for a broad circle of specialists (people having specific ideas and suggestions) to introduce their information into the bank of data used in SANT. The input of such data can change the previous estimates and can influence the decisions being made. We should emphasize that the most important influence which such new ideas exert in the model is not through statistically averaged numbers but through change in the set of events and the structure of their interconnections. Attention to individual judgements has a stimulating influence on the activeness of this process of "competition of ST ideas".
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY -A PPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS APPROACH G.M. Dobrov International Institute f o r A pplied Systems Analysis (IIA SA ), L a x en b u rg , Austria R esearch Scholar, IIASA
THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM
SANT, one must bear in mind that in this case we do not deal with traditionally practised engineering judgements but with "systems assessments " , in which all the basic features of m o d ern systems analysis are inherent:
Within the framework of systems analysis technology is understood as: (a) a specific system that consists of technical means ("hardware"), principles and methods of their effective operation ("software" or "knowhow"), and special organization ("orgware") to include decision makers' professional skills and provide interaction of this sytem with other various systems;
the multifaceted nature of the factors, properties, and consequences examined; an interdisciplinary and interinstitutional approach; attention, not only to near, but also to remote effects, needs and possibilities; the combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis of situations and objects; and an orientation toward the practice of decision making.
(b) a man-made environment and m a t e rialized knowledge which pe rmanently modifies the volume and structure of available natural resources and mankinds' p ossibilities? and
Further, we should note that the definition of "new " presupposes attention to phenomena arising or potentially possible as a result of the use of the latest achievements of Science, and that the concept of Technology is used in the above mentioned system sense. The composition of SANT involved the following:
(c) a process of organized activity and a holistic object of management on the different levels of decision making. This activity results in new or transformed technological possibilities. Management of processes of r esearch, development, and transfer of innovations is referred to as "management of technological changes " . The processes of forming and implementing ST policy, including the acquisition, distribution, and u tilization of technological results, is also known as a process of managing technological advance .
- Technological Forecasts; - Evaluation of the consequences of the development of technology (Technology A s s e s s m e n t ) ; - Comparison of the variants for technological policy (Alternative T e c h n o l o g i e s ) ; - Evaluation of the "usefulness" of contemplated and on-going r e search and development efforts (Evaluation of R £ D ) ; and
In the case in which we use criteria, priorities, and ideas - including data from the sphere of socioeconomic and general policy - to evaluate needs and examine values, we can^ speak about assessment of technological progress .
- Various "indicators" of the level of ST potential of countries and regions (Science-andtechnology Indicators).
The Systems Assessment of New Technology (SANT) is the special analysis and evaluation of technologies and their interactions with nature and society from the systems point of view. To understand the essence of
In other words, SANT is a system of data for the basing of ST management decisions (see Fig. 1).
65
66
G.M. Dobrov
GENERAL POLICY AND ECONOMY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY
I
I
Data about Needs and Values
Management of Technological Advance
Management of Technological Progress
Fig. 1 A MODEL FOR SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF NEW TECHNOLOGY The model* is intended to include the ideas of specialists, quantitative assessments of events and possibilities, and also the qualitative peculiarities of the logic of the development of the chosen ST area. The development of computer science and technology in the model are concerned with four levels of research and engineering activity: (a) exploratory research, the forming of the "portfolio" of new ideas for further development; (b) applied research and development directed toward discovery of methods for practical use in technology of the already projected possibilities and established principles; (c) sphere which seeks economically and technologically effective methods for the realization of work at levels (a) and (b) in conditions of real production; *V.M. Glushkov, "0 prognozirovanii na osnove ekspertnykh o t s e n o k " , Kibernetika (1969), N o . 2, G.M. Dobrov, et al., Ekspertnye otsenki v nauchnotechnicheskom prognozirovanii (Kiev: Naukova Dumka, 1974).
(d) technology transfer and the utilization of "technological changes" in regular practice. The methodology consists of informational and mathematical procedures for constructing and analysing a basic graph which illuminates the generalized perception of a large group of specialists about needs, possibilities, and resources for progress in a definite area of R S D. The organizers of this SANT use a goal-oriented and multistage expert inquiry in striving to clarify and formulate the set of expected and needed events. The events reflect the conditions for achievement of each level of progress in the area. Each such event is accompanied by a system of quantitative estimates (t-; - the expected time of occurrence or event j; Pij (t) - the relative probability of the transition of events from condition i to condition j in time t; C^j - an estimate of the cost of realizing the indicated elementary step of technological progress; Z^j the relative importance of the i-tn event as one of the conditions for occurrence of event j ). The sequence followed in constructing the graph amounts to "extending" some problem (the final goal of the program) from the future down into the present, creating a structure of intermediate
Science and Technology - Applied Systems Analysis Approach
Fig. events and fixing cause-effect relations among them. Development of ST is modelled by means of a combination of several formal transformations of the graph (see Fig. 2): I - introduction (or removal) of events which reflect possibilities for achievement of p r e viously established goals; II - introduction of new formulations of conditions or d escriptions of new sub-goals; III - reconstruction of connections (establishment liquidation of
of the network among the events of new ones or existing o n e s ) ;
IV - changes in the set of quantitative characteristics of the events in the graph.* *An important element in the information included in this system is data about specialists and organizations which are ready to perform d i f ferent tasks or are relevant to such a type of activity.
67
2 PRACTICAL EXPERIENCE The methodology based on these ideas has received the name "Programmatic Methodology for Technological Forecasting" . In 1971 it was approved by the collegium of the State Committee on Science and Technology of the USSR as the basic methodological instrument for SANT. Since 1975, the CMEA countries have had a joint Methodology for Multinational Work in Technological Forecasting created on the basis of the "Programmatic Methodology" but utilizing the CMEA countries' experience with forecasting. With the help of these methodologies, in various ST stages, assessments are now being obtained which are practically related to all the elements of SANT: prognostic technological data; estimates of the possible influence of scientific and technical achievements; comparison of variants of technological policy; comparison and evaluation of R £ D projects at the stage of their inclusion in plans and programs; and advance estimation of the ST potential which could be drawn
68
G.M. Dobrov
in for performance of expedient ef forts. The practice of working with the model can be characterized in the following way. A representative sample of experts, often numbering in the hundreds (with variable membership in each round of the inquiry) puts forward technological conditions for the achievement of a certain level of goals and sub-goals. The procedure of expert estimation continues until it reaches such conditions as the use of already extant R S D results, the implementation of an already patented solution, the introduction of an innovation which can be bought on license, etc. This operation is known as "grounding" the graph. The networks of hypotheses which are constructed in this way include thousands of events and serve to systematize a great deal of information about ST ideas and possibilities. Such a formalized presentation of the generalized opinion of specialists possesses a number of non-trivial properties. There are sets of algorithms and p r o grams for different specific compositions of data and different functions of SANT. They make it possible to perform a qualitative analysis of the chains of interconnected events from a common viewpoint and to carry out quantitative computations of their characteristics with compatible estimates. This analysis embraces data about goals and sub-goals, paths to their achievement, the resources required for this, and the existing ST potential. One of the most important properties of the model examined here is the possibility of working with the graph with the help of a new type of dialogue - a dialogue between "man, information system, and the community of specialists". The graph allows the analysts to play out the situation and thus test a series of hypotheses of the type: what kind of consequences could be expected in the program from occurrence of event j in the period ± A t? or how does the absolute probability of achieving goal S change if the relative probability of transition from event i to event j turns out to equal zero (failure). Under the influence of information newly entered into the system, periodic revision is performed on the previously made estimates, forecast variants, and decisions. The results of such an analysis can give the system "reason" for re-examining one or
another part of the plan of practical actions and for discussing the newly formed situation on an informal level. Use of the model's indicated capability for "self-improvement" and "selfinstruction" opens up especially favorable prospects for formation of a new methodology for the planning and management of ST changes. Its basic features are as follows: - providing a single set of decisions, embracing research work on various levels, development work, and the technical improvement of production; - making key management decisions under conditions of fuller knowledge and with the use of calculated analytic bases; - carrying out decision making as a permanent procedure, i.e., at any moment of the 15 year plan it will be possible to up-date current decisions in light of the long-range perspective; - obtaining a single methodological substantiation for the choice of goals, for assessment of dynamics of technological change, for long-range program design, and for the distribution of resources; - making it possible for a broad circle of specialists (people having specific ideas and suggestions) to introduce their information into the bank of data used in SANT. The input of such data can change the previous estimates and can influence the decisions being made. We should emphasize that the most important influence which such new ideas exert in the model is not through statistically averaged numbers but through change in the set of events and the structure of their interconnections. Attention to individual judgements has a stimulating influence on the activeness of this process of "competition of ST ideas".