- Email: [email protected]
Sensible consumerism for environmental sustainability
Biological Conservation 151 (2012) 3–6
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Biological Conservation journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon
Special Issue Article: Advancing Environmental Conservation: Essays In Honor Of Navjot Sodhi
Sensible consumerism for environmental sustainability Lian Pin Koh a,b,⇑, Tien Ming Lee c,d a
Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, Universitatstrasse 16, CHN G73.1, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore c Ecology, Behavior and Evolution Section, Division of Biological Sciences, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0116, USA d Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, P.O. Box 208106, New Haven, CT 06520-8106, USA b
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Available online 26 November 2011 Keywords: Deforestation Conservation Oil palm Food security REDD Sustainable development
a b s t r a c t Navjot Sodhi and we often discussed how growing global demands for food are placing increasing pressures on tropical forests. Although more consumers are demanding for ‘greener’ products associated with sustainable production, green consumerism and improved production practices per se might not adequately curtail destruction of forests and biodiversity. Instead, we argue that consumers in emerging and developed countries need to avoid wasteful and excessive consumption. We demonstrate how reasonable recalibration of consumer aspirations and changes in consumption levels in China, India, the European Union and United States might substantially alleviate environmental impacts associated with oilseed production in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina. We do so through a scenario analysis that projects oilseed demands and expansion from current levels to 2100 under three alternative consumption trends. We show that pursuing a business-as-usual course of consumption would impose severe pressures in producer countries to clear land for oil-palm and soybean agriculture (up to an additional 12 million hectares by 2040), which could exacerbate rates of deforestation and biodiversity loss in these tropical regions. On the other hand, if each person in the EU and US reduces his/her daily vegetable oil consumption by an average of 25 g – roughly equivalent to forgoing one large serving of French Fries – the pressure to convert tropical forests for oilseed expansion could be reduced by up to 70%. Our analysis demonstrates how changes in consumer behavior in industrialized nations could substantially alleviate environmental impacts associated with agricultural production in the developing tropics. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Contents 1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. Introduction Global consumption of edible vegetable oil increased from 16 million tons (Mt) in 1971 to 115 Mt in 2010 (USDA-FAS, 2011). This sevenfold increase is largely driven by rising demands from China, India, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), which consumed a total of 65 Mt of vegetable oil last year (Fig. 1). Almost one-third of this amount comprises palm oil (15 Mt) and soybean oil (4 Mt) imported from the tropics. In ⇑ Corresponding author at: Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, Universitatstrasse 16, CHN G73.1, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Tel.: +41 44 632 68 36; fax: +41 44 632 15 75. E-mail address: [email protected] (L.P. Koh). 0006-3207/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.029
fact, the lucrative export market for vegetable oil has been driving expansion of industrial-scale plantations in tropical Southeast Asia and Latin America (Rudel et al., 2009). In Indonesia and Malaysia, oil-palm harvested area expanded from 3 million ha (Mha) in 1971 to over 9 Mha in 2009; likewise soybean area in Brazil and Argentina increased from 2 Mha to 39 Mha over the same period (FAO, 2011). These widespread and rapid land-use changes have contributed to massive losses of forests, biodiversity and carbon stocks across the tropics (Gibbs et al., 2010; Koh et al., 2011; Morton et al., 2006). To address these concerns, environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), such as the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF), have established multi-stakeholder fora and developed certification standards to improve the environmental performance
4
L.P. Koh, T.M. Lee / Biological Conservation 151 (2012) 3–6
Fig. 1. Historical trends in per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil in the world’s top four consumer countries of China, India, the European Union and United States. Horizontal grey line indicates the ‘healthy level’ of consumption (56g d 1) (see text for details).
Fig. 2. Historical and projected human population size in the world’s top four consumer countries of China, India, the European Union and United States (UNPD, 2011).
of agribusinesses. Two notable certification schemes for sustainable oilseed production are administered by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (www.rspo.org) and the Round Table on Responsible Soy (www.responsiblesoy.org). Concurrently, NGOs also invest significant resources to raise public awareness of the environmental issues associated with monoculture production systems. Consequently, more consumers are demanding for ‘greener’ products, which in turn incentivizes producers to improve production practices (Autio et al., 2009). However, the biodiversity payoffs of improving production and management practices are often constrained by the reluctance of agribusinesses to compromise on yield and profit (Edwards et al., 2010; Koh, 2008). Furthermore, the efficacy of certification schemes for mitigating environmental impacts remains debatable (Laurance et al., 2010). Most crucially, as long as demands for agricultural products continue to increase, so too will pressures to clear more forests for croplands. Therefore, green consumerism and improved production systems per se might not adequately curtail destruction of forests and biodiversity. Instead, we suggest that societal attitudes toward consumption urgently require another paradigm shift. Specifically, we argue that besides opting for greener products, consumers in emerging and developed countries need to avoid wasteful and excessive consumption (Wilk, 2002). In this paper, we demonstrate how reasonable changes in consumer behavior in China, India, the EU and US (i.e., the top four consumers of vegetable oil), might substantially alleviate environmental impacts associated with oilseed production in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina (i.e., the top four exporters of vegetable oil). We do so through a scenario analysis that projects oilseed demands and expansion from current levels to 2100 under the following alternative consumption trends:
53.1 g d 1, respectively, to 81.2 g d 1 (the average of 2010 EU and US consumption rates) within 10 years, and stay at this level until 2100. 2. ‘Recalcitrant West’ (RW): In the second scenario, per capita consumption of vegetable oil in the EU and US remains at 2010 levels until 2100. India and China increase per capita vegetable oil consumption from current levels to a ‘healthy level’ of 56 g d 1 within 10 years, and stay at this level until 2100. This healthy level is calculated based on a World Heath Organization-recommended fat consumption level of 20% of total energy intake and an average per capita energy intake of 2500 kilocalories per day; and assuming an average energy density of 9 kilocalories per gram of vegetable oil (FAO, 2004, 2010). For simplicity, we further assume that total fat intake in the future would comprise mainly vegetable oil, partly because of a growing preference for non-animal fats in industrialized nations (Tukker et al., 2011). 3. ‘Converging Sensibilities’ (CS): The third scenario reflects a low demand future, whereby per capita consumption of vegetable oil in China, India, the EU and US converges at 56 g d 1 within 10 years (a reduction of 19.5 g d 1 for the EU and 30.9 g d 1 for US), and remains at this level until 2100.
1. ‘Aspiring East’ (AE): This first scenario reflects business-asusual consumption whereby per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil in the EU and US remains consistently high at 2010 levels through 2100: 75.5 g per day (g d 1) in the EU and 86.9 g d 1 in the US (UNPD, 2011; USDA-FAS, 2011). Concurrently, as the emerging economies of India and China aspire to higher living standards, both nations increase per capita vegetable oil consumption from current levels of 35.3 g d 1 and
Based on United Nations projections of population growth in each country (Fig. 2) (UNPD, 2011), we estimate that by 2100 the total amount of edible vegetable oil consumed in the top four consumer countries would increase by between 9% or 5.8 Mt (i.e., for CS scenario) and 58% or 37.5 Mt (AE scenario) (Table 1). Notably, India would experience the most drastic increase in vegetable oil consumption of at least twofold its current level, from 15.8 Mt in 2010 to 31.7 Mt (CS and RW scenarios) or 46 Mt (AE scenario) in 2100. Over the same period, China’s vegetable oil consumption is expected to decrease by 26.1% (6.8 Mt) under both the CS and RW scenarios, or increase by 7.2% (1.9 Mt) under the AE scenario. This is largely due to China’s slowing population growth, which would result in a contracting population after 2025 (Fig. 2) (UNPD, 2011). Based on these expected changes in consumption rates, we project the change in amount of palm oil and soybean oil imported by
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Table 1 Projected consumption of edible vegetable oil in China, India, the European Union and United States under three alternative per capita consumption scenarios (see text for detailed description of each scenario). Scenario/consumer
Vegetable oil consumption (thousand metric tons) 2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
‘Aspiring East’ China India European Union United States Total
26,014 15,780 12,986 9841 64,621
41,130 41,104 13,303 10,688 106,226
41,287 45,152 13,472 11,467 111,378
40,333 48,221 13,496 12,158 114,208
38,398 50,146 13,433 12,781 114,758
35,907 50,916 13,264 13,350 113,436
33,369 50,626 13,096 13,897 110,987
31,064 49,508 13,027 14,393 107,992
29,179 47,863 13,048 14,813 104,904
27,890 45,964 13,106 15,156 102,116
‘Recalcitrant West’ China India European Union United States Total
26,014 15,780 12,986 9841 64,621
28,366 28,348 13,303 10,688 80,706
28,474 31,140 13,472 11,467 84,554
27,817 33,256 13,496 12,158 86,728
26,482 34,585 13,433 12,781 87,280
24,764 35,115 13,264 13,350 86,493
23,013 34,916 13,096 13,897 84,921
21,424 34,144 13,027 14,393 82,989
20,124 33,010 13,048 14,813 80,995
19,235 31,700 13,106 15,156 79,197
‘Converging Sensibilities’ China India European Union United States Total
26,014 15,780 12,986 9841 64,621
28,366 28,348 9863 6890 73,469
28,474 31,140 9988 7393 76,996
27,817 33,256 10,007 7838 78,918
26,482 34,585 9959 8239 79,266
24,764 35,115 9835 8606 78,320
23,013 34,916 9709 8959 76,597
21,424 34,144 9659 9279 74,506
20,124 33,010 9674 9550 72,358
19,235 31,700 9717 9771 70,423
Table 2 Projected import of vegetable oil (palm oil and soybean oil) in 2100 by China, India, the European Union and United States under alternative per capita consumption scenarios (see text for detailed description of each scenario). Importer (exporter)
Vegetable oil import (metric tons) Currenta
CSb
1,721,041 688,606 1,683,314 3,558,148 7,651,109
1,845,141 738,260 1,804,694 3,814,718 8,202,814
1,272,547 509,159 1,244,652 2,630,915 5,657,273
1,272,547 509,159 1,244,652 2,630,915 5,657,273
India (Argentina) (Brazil) (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
493,906 172,488 4,459,834 992,195 6,118,423
1,438,657 502,426 12,990,677 2,890,082 17,821,842
992,206 346,510 8,959,342 1,993,216 12,291,274
992,206 346,510 8,959,342 1,993,216 12,291,274
European Union (Argentina) (Brazil) (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
422,883 503,211 1,916,899 1,816,047 4,659,040
426,786 507,856 1,934,593 1,832,810 4,702,045
426,786 507,856 1,934,593 1,832,810 4,702,045
316,431 376,538 1,434,361 1,358,896 3,486,227
67,868 900,548 968,416
104,524 1,386,944 1,491,469
104,524 1,386,944 1,491,469
67,384 894,129 961,513
19,396,988
32,218,170
24,142,061
22,396,287
Total b
RWb
China (Argentina) (Brazil) (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
United States (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
a
AEb
Refers to 2008 import values (most current) published by FAOSTAT (2011). AE: ‘Aspiring East’; RW: ‘Recalcitrant West’; CS: ‘Converging Sensibilities’.
each consumer country from each exporting country. We make two reasonable, albeit simplifying, assumptions: (i) the relative proportions of palm oil and soybean oil consumed by each importing country do not change over time; and (ii) the relative proportions of oils imported from each exporting country also remain at current levels. We find that the total additional vegetable oil imported by the four top consumer countries by 2100 would range from 3 Mt (CS scenario) to 12.8 Mt (AE scenario) (Table 2). Not surprisingly, China is set to reduce its import of vegetable oil regardless of the scenario considered because of population contraction
Fig. 3. Projected total cropland expansion (oil palm and soybean) in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina to meet future export demands under three alternative scenarios. Cropland expansions were calculated based on countryspecific oil yield assumptions (Indonesian palm oil: 3.44 tons ha 1; Malaysian palm oil: 4.24 tons ha 1; Brazilian soybean oil: 0.28 tons ha 1; Argentinean soybean oil: 0.39 tons ha 1) (FAO, 2011; USDA-FAS, 2011).
(Fig. 2). On the other hand, India would substantially increase its oil import even under the CS and RW scenarios, owing to the compounding effects of higher per capita consumption rates (increase from 35 g d 1 to at least 56 g d 1) and a tripling of India’s population by 2100 (Fig. 2). Given the expected increase in export demands for palm oil and soybean oil, we calculate the additional cropland area required to meet these demands in the top four exporting countries. Cropland expansions were calculated based on country-specific oil-yield assumptions: Indonesian palm oil, 3.44 tons ha 1; Malaysian palm oil, 4.24 tons ha 1; Brazilian soybean oil, 0.28 tons ha 1; Argentinean soybean oil, 0.39 tons ha 1 (FAO, 2011; USDA-FAS, 2011). We
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find that under the AE scenario, total oilseed croplands in these countries would increase to 11.7 Mha in 2040, before declining to 7.3 Mha in 2100 (Fig. 3). Land requirements under the RW and CS scenarios follow a similar pattern but are approximately 60% and 70% lower, respectively, in absolute terms. We recognize the solutions proposed by others to meet future food demands, including raising yield ceilings and closing yield gaps through better technology, increasing production and transportation efficiencies, and transiting to less protein-rich diets (Clay, 2011; Godfray et al., 2010; McMichael et al., 2007). In addition to these suggestions, we argue that reducing consumption rates would have to be an important and complementary approach to achieve the dual goals of meeting nutritional needs while safeguarding the environment. We also recognize that curbing demand is an immensely challenging task, as the Chinese and Indians aspire to higher living standards and better quality foods, while the EU and US remain prone to excessive consumerism. Our analysis suggests that pursuing such a business-as-usual course (AE scenario) would impose severe pressures in oilseed producing nations to open up more land for agriculture, which in turn would exacerbate rates of tropical deforestation and biodiversity loss. Happily, our projections also show that even relatively minor changes in consumption behavior could lead to nontrivial environmental benefits. Under the CS scenario, whereby each person in the EU and US reduces his/her oil consumption by an average of 25 g d 1, roughly equivalent to forgoing one large serving of French Fries (http://nutrition.mcdonalds.com), the pressure to convert tropical forests for oil-palm and soybean agriculture would be reduced by more than half (Fig. 3). This effect, in and of itself, is some serious food for thought.
Acknowledgements L.P.K. was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation and the North–South Centre, ETH Zurich. T.M.L. was partially supported by the National Center of Ecological Synthesis and Analysis, USA.
References Autio, M., Heiskanen, E., Heinonen, V., 2009. Narratives of ‘green’ consumers - the antihero, the environmental hero and the anarchist. Journal of Consumer Behaviour 8, 40–53. Clay, J., 2011. Freeze the footprint of food. Nature 475, 287–289. Edwards, D.P., Hodgson, J.A., Hamer, K.C., Mitchell, S.L., Ahmad, A.H., Cornell, S.J., Wilcove, D.S., 2010. Wildlife-friendly oil palm plantations fail to protect biodiversity effectively. Conservation Letters 3, 236–242. FAO, 2004. Human Energy Requirements: Report of a Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. FAO, 2010. Fats and Fatty Acids in Human Nutrition: Report of an Expert Consultation. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. FAO, 2011. FAOSTAT: Statistical Databases and Data-Sets. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy. Gibbs, H.K., Ruesch, A.S., Achard, F., Clayton, M.K., Holmgren, P., Ramankutty, N., Foley, J.A., 2010. Tropical forests were the primary sources of new agricultural land in the 1980s and 1990s. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107, 16732–16737. Godfray, H.C.J., Beddington, J.R., Crute, I.R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J.F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S.M., Toulmin, C., 2010. Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327, 812–818. Koh, L.P., 2008. Can oil palm plantations be made more hospitable for forest butterflies and birds? Journal of Applied Ecology 45, 1002–1009. Koh, L.P., Miettinen, J., Liew, S.C., Ghazoul, J., 2011. Remotely sensed evidence of tropical peatland conversion to oil palm. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108, 5127–5132. Laurance, W.F., Koh, L.P., Butler, R., Sodhi, N.S., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Neidel, J.D., Consunji, H., Vega, J.M., 2010. Improving the performance of the roundtable on sustainable palm oil for nature conservation. Conservation Biology 24, 377–381. McMichael, A.J., Powles, J.W., Butler, C.D., Uauy, R., 2007. Energy and health 5 – food, livestock production, energy, climate change, and health. Lancet 370, 1253– 1263. Morton, D.C., DeFries, R.S., Shimabukuro, Y.E., Anderson, L.O., Arai, E., EspiritoSanto, F.D., Freitas, R., Morisette, J., 2006. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103, 14637–14641. Rudel, T.K., DeFries, R., Asner, G.P., Laurance, W.F., 2009. Changing drivers of deforestation and new opportunities for conservation. Conservation Biology 23, 1396–1405. Tukker, A., Goldbohm, R.A., de Koning, A., Verheijden, M., Kleijn, R., Wolf, O., PerezDominguez, I., Rueda-Cantuche, J.M., 2011. Environmental impacts of changes to healthier diets in Europe. Ecological Economics 70, 1776–1788. UNPD, 2011. World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat (UNPD), New York. USDA-FAS, 2011. Production, Supply and Distribution Online. United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, DC. Wilk, R., 2002. Consumption, human needs, and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 12, 5–13.
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Biological Conservation journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/biocon
Special Issue Article: Advancing Environmental Conservation: Essays In Honor Of Navjot Sodhi
Sensible consumerism for environmental sustainability Lian Pin Koh a,b,⇑, Tien Ming Lee c,d a
Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, Universitatstrasse 16, CHN G73.1, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore c Ecology, Behavior and Evolution Section, Division of Biological Sciences, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0116, USA d Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, P.O. Box 208106, New Haven, CT 06520-8106, USA b
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history: Available online 26 November 2011 Keywords: Deforestation Conservation Oil palm Food security REDD Sustainable development
a b s t r a c t Navjot Sodhi and we often discussed how growing global demands for food are placing increasing pressures on tropical forests. Although more consumers are demanding for ‘greener’ products associated with sustainable production, green consumerism and improved production practices per se might not adequately curtail destruction of forests and biodiversity. Instead, we argue that consumers in emerging and developed countries need to avoid wasteful and excessive consumption. We demonstrate how reasonable recalibration of consumer aspirations and changes in consumption levels in China, India, the European Union and United States might substantially alleviate environmental impacts associated with oilseed production in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina. We do so through a scenario analysis that projects oilseed demands and expansion from current levels to 2100 under three alternative consumption trends. We show that pursuing a business-as-usual course of consumption would impose severe pressures in producer countries to clear land for oil-palm and soybean agriculture (up to an additional 12 million hectares by 2040), which could exacerbate rates of deforestation and biodiversity loss in these tropical regions. On the other hand, if each person in the EU and US reduces his/her daily vegetable oil consumption by an average of 25 g – roughly equivalent to forgoing one large serving of French Fries – the pressure to convert tropical forests for oilseed expansion could be reduced by up to 70%. Our analysis demonstrates how changes in consumer behavior in industrialized nations could substantially alleviate environmental impacts associated with agricultural production in the developing tropics. Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Contents 1.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. Introduction Global consumption of edible vegetable oil increased from 16 million tons (Mt) in 1971 to 115 Mt in 2010 (USDA-FAS, 2011). This sevenfold increase is largely driven by rising demands from China, India, the European Union (EU) and the United States (US), which consumed a total of 65 Mt of vegetable oil last year (Fig. 1). Almost one-third of this amount comprises palm oil (15 Mt) and soybean oil (4 Mt) imported from the tropics. In ⇑ Corresponding author at: Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, Universitatstrasse 16, CHN G73.1, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Tel.: +41 44 632 68 36; fax: +41 44 632 15 75. E-mail address: [email protected] (L.P. Koh). 0006-3207/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.10.029
fact, the lucrative export market for vegetable oil has been driving expansion of industrial-scale plantations in tropical Southeast Asia and Latin America (Rudel et al., 2009). In Indonesia and Malaysia, oil-palm harvested area expanded from 3 million ha (Mha) in 1971 to over 9 Mha in 2009; likewise soybean area in Brazil and Argentina increased from 2 Mha to 39 Mha over the same period (FAO, 2011). These widespread and rapid land-use changes have contributed to massive losses of forests, biodiversity and carbon stocks across the tropics (Gibbs et al., 2010; Koh et al., 2011; Morton et al., 2006). To address these concerns, environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), such as the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF), have established multi-stakeholder fora and developed certification standards to improve the environmental performance
4
L.P. Koh, T.M. Lee / Biological Conservation 151 (2012) 3–6
Fig. 1. Historical trends in per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil in the world’s top four consumer countries of China, India, the European Union and United States. Horizontal grey line indicates the ‘healthy level’ of consumption (56g d 1) (see text for details).
Fig. 2. Historical and projected human population size in the world’s top four consumer countries of China, India, the European Union and United States (UNPD, 2011).
of agribusinesses. Two notable certification schemes for sustainable oilseed production are administered by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (www.rspo.org) and the Round Table on Responsible Soy (www.responsiblesoy.org). Concurrently, NGOs also invest significant resources to raise public awareness of the environmental issues associated with monoculture production systems. Consequently, more consumers are demanding for ‘greener’ products, which in turn incentivizes producers to improve production practices (Autio et al., 2009). However, the biodiversity payoffs of improving production and management practices are often constrained by the reluctance of agribusinesses to compromise on yield and profit (Edwards et al., 2010; Koh, 2008). Furthermore, the efficacy of certification schemes for mitigating environmental impacts remains debatable (Laurance et al., 2010). Most crucially, as long as demands for agricultural products continue to increase, so too will pressures to clear more forests for croplands. Therefore, green consumerism and improved production systems per se might not adequately curtail destruction of forests and biodiversity. Instead, we suggest that societal attitudes toward consumption urgently require another paradigm shift. Specifically, we argue that besides opting for greener products, consumers in emerging and developed countries need to avoid wasteful and excessive consumption (Wilk, 2002). In this paper, we demonstrate how reasonable changes in consumer behavior in China, India, the EU and US (i.e., the top four consumers of vegetable oil), might substantially alleviate environmental impacts associated with oilseed production in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina (i.e., the top four exporters of vegetable oil). We do so through a scenario analysis that projects oilseed demands and expansion from current levels to 2100 under the following alternative consumption trends:
53.1 g d 1, respectively, to 81.2 g d 1 (the average of 2010 EU and US consumption rates) within 10 years, and stay at this level until 2100. 2. ‘Recalcitrant West’ (RW): In the second scenario, per capita consumption of vegetable oil in the EU and US remains at 2010 levels until 2100. India and China increase per capita vegetable oil consumption from current levels to a ‘healthy level’ of 56 g d 1 within 10 years, and stay at this level until 2100. This healthy level is calculated based on a World Heath Organization-recommended fat consumption level of 20% of total energy intake and an average per capita energy intake of 2500 kilocalories per day; and assuming an average energy density of 9 kilocalories per gram of vegetable oil (FAO, 2004, 2010). For simplicity, we further assume that total fat intake in the future would comprise mainly vegetable oil, partly because of a growing preference for non-animal fats in industrialized nations (Tukker et al., 2011). 3. ‘Converging Sensibilities’ (CS): The third scenario reflects a low demand future, whereby per capita consumption of vegetable oil in China, India, the EU and US converges at 56 g d 1 within 10 years (a reduction of 19.5 g d 1 for the EU and 30.9 g d 1 for US), and remains at this level until 2100.
1. ‘Aspiring East’ (AE): This first scenario reflects business-asusual consumption whereby per capita consumption of edible vegetable oil in the EU and US remains consistently high at 2010 levels through 2100: 75.5 g per day (g d 1) in the EU and 86.9 g d 1 in the US (UNPD, 2011; USDA-FAS, 2011). Concurrently, as the emerging economies of India and China aspire to higher living standards, both nations increase per capita vegetable oil consumption from current levels of 35.3 g d 1 and
Based on United Nations projections of population growth in each country (Fig. 2) (UNPD, 2011), we estimate that by 2100 the total amount of edible vegetable oil consumed in the top four consumer countries would increase by between 9% or 5.8 Mt (i.e., for CS scenario) and 58% or 37.5 Mt (AE scenario) (Table 1). Notably, India would experience the most drastic increase in vegetable oil consumption of at least twofold its current level, from 15.8 Mt in 2010 to 31.7 Mt (CS and RW scenarios) or 46 Mt (AE scenario) in 2100. Over the same period, China’s vegetable oil consumption is expected to decrease by 26.1% (6.8 Mt) under both the CS and RW scenarios, or increase by 7.2% (1.9 Mt) under the AE scenario. This is largely due to China’s slowing population growth, which would result in a contracting population after 2025 (Fig. 2) (UNPD, 2011). Based on these expected changes in consumption rates, we project the change in amount of palm oil and soybean oil imported by
5
L.P. Koh, T.M. Lee / Biological Conservation 151 (2012) 3–6
Table 1 Projected consumption of edible vegetable oil in China, India, the European Union and United States under three alternative per capita consumption scenarios (see text for detailed description of each scenario). Scenario/consumer
Vegetable oil consumption (thousand metric tons) 2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
‘Aspiring East’ China India European Union United States Total
26,014 15,780 12,986 9841 64,621
41,130 41,104 13,303 10,688 106,226
41,287 45,152 13,472 11,467 111,378
40,333 48,221 13,496 12,158 114,208
38,398 50,146 13,433 12,781 114,758
35,907 50,916 13,264 13,350 113,436
33,369 50,626 13,096 13,897 110,987
31,064 49,508 13,027 14,393 107,992
29,179 47,863 13,048 14,813 104,904
27,890 45,964 13,106 15,156 102,116
‘Recalcitrant West’ China India European Union United States Total
26,014 15,780 12,986 9841 64,621
28,366 28,348 13,303 10,688 80,706
28,474 31,140 13,472 11,467 84,554
27,817 33,256 13,496 12,158 86,728
26,482 34,585 13,433 12,781 87,280
24,764 35,115 13,264 13,350 86,493
23,013 34,916 13,096 13,897 84,921
21,424 34,144 13,027 14,393 82,989
20,124 33,010 13,048 14,813 80,995
19,235 31,700 13,106 15,156 79,197
‘Converging Sensibilities’ China India European Union United States Total
26,014 15,780 12,986 9841 64,621
28,366 28,348 9863 6890 73,469
28,474 31,140 9988 7393 76,996
27,817 33,256 10,007 7838 78,918
26,482 34,585 9959 8239 79,266
24,764 35,115 9835 8606 78,320
23,013 34,916 9709 8959 76,597
21,424 34,144 9659 9279 74,506
20,124 33,010 9674 9550 72,358
19,235 31,700 9717 9771 70,423
Table 2 Projected import of vegetable oil (palm oil and soybean oil) in 2100 by China, India, the European Union and United States under alternative per capita consumption scenarios (see text for detailed description of each scenario). Importer (exporter)
Vegetable oil import (metric tons) Currenta
CSb
1,721,041 688,606 1,683,314 3,558,148 7,651,109
1,845,141 738,260 1,804,694 3,814,718 8,202,814
1,272,547 509,159 1,244,652 2,630,915 5,657,273
1,272,547 509,159 1,244,652 2,630,915 5,657,273
India (Argentina) (Brazil) (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
493,906 172,488 4,459,834 992,195 6,118,423
1,438,657 502,426 12,990,677 2,890,082 17,821,842
992,206 346,510 8,959,342 1,993,216 12,291,274
992,206 346,510 8,959,342 1,993,216 12,291,274
European Union (Argentina) (Brazil) (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
422,883 503,211 1,916,899 1,816,047 4,659,040
426,786 507,856 1,934,593 1,832,810 4,702,045
426,786 507,856 1,934,593 1,832,810 4,702,045
316,431 376,538 1,434,361 1,358,896 3,486,227
67,868 900,548 968,416
104,524 1,386,944 1,491,469
104,524 1,386,944 1,491,469
67,384 894,129 961,513
19,396,988
32,218,170
24,142,061
22,396,287
Total b
RWb
China (Argentina) (Brazil) (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
United States (Indonesia) (Malaysia) Sub-total
a
AEb
Refers to 2008 import values (most current) published by FAOSTAT (2011). AE: ‘Aspiring East’; RW: ‘Recalcitrant West’; CS: ‘Converging Sensibilities’.
each consumer country from each exporting country. We make two reasonable, albeit simplifying, assumptions: (i) the relative proportions of palm oil and soybean oil consumed by each importing country do not change over time; and (ii) the relative proportions of oils imported from each exporting country also remain at current levels. We find that the total additional vegetable oil imported by the four top consumer countries by 2100 would range from 3 Mt (CS scenario) to 12.8 Mt (AE scenario) (Table 2). Not surprisingly, China is set to reduce its import of vegetable oil regardless of the scenario considered because of population contraction
Fig. 3. Projected total cropland expansion (oil palm and soybean) in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and Argentina to meet future export demands under three alternative scenarios. Cropland expansions were calculated based on countryspecific oil yield assumptions (Indonesian palm oil: 3.44 tons ha 1; Malaysian palm oil: 4.24 tons ha 1; Brazilian soybean oil: 0.28 tons ha 1; Argentinean soybean oil: 0.39 tons ha 1) (FAO, 2011; USDA-FAS, 2011).
(Fig. 2). On the other hand, India would substantially increase its oil import even under the CS and RW scenarios, owing to the compounding effects of higher per capita consumption rates (increase from 35 g d 1 to at least 56 g d 1) and a tripling of India’s population by 2100 (Fig. 2). Given the expected increase in export demands for palm oil and soybean oil, we calculate the additional cropland area required to meet these demands in the top four exporting countries. Cropland expansions were calculated based on country-specific oil-yield assumptions: Indonesian palm oil, 3.44 tons ha 1; Malaysian palm oil, 4.24 tons ha 1; Brazilian soybean oil, 0.28 tons ha 1; Argentinean soybean oil, 0.39 tons ha 1 (FAO, 2011; USDA-FAS, 2011). We
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find that under the AE scenario, total oilseed croplands in these countries would increase to 11.7 Mha in 2040, before declining to 7.3 Mha in 2100 (Fig. 3). Land requirements under the RW and CS scenarios follow a similar pattern but are approximately 60% and 70% lower, respectively, in absolute terms. We recognize the solutions proposed by others to meet future food demands, including raising yield ceilings and closing yield gaps through better technology, increasing production and transportation efficiencies, and transiting to less protein-rich diets (Clay, 2011; Godfray et al., 2010; McMichael et al., 2007). In addition to these suggestions, we argue that reducing consumption rates would have to be an important and complementary approach to achieve the dual goals of meeting nutritional needs while safeguarding the environment. We also recognize that curbing demand is an immensely challenging task, as the Chinese and Indians aspire to higher living standards and better quality foods, while the EU and US remain prone to excessive consumerism. Our analysis suggests that pursuing such a business-as-usual course (AE scenario) would impose severe pressures in oilseed producing nations to open up more land for agriculture, which in turn would exacerbate rates of tropical deforestation and biodiversity loss. Happily, our projections also show that even relatively minor changes in consumption behavior could lead to nontrivial environmental benefits. Under the CS scenario, whereby each person in the EU and US reduces his/her oil consumption by an average of 25 g d 1, roughly equivalent to forgoing one large serving of French Fries (http://nutrition.mcdonalds.com), the pressure to convert tropical forests for oil-palm and soybean agriculture would be reduced by more than half (Fig. 3). This effect, in and of itself, is some serious food for thought.
Acknowledgements L.P.K. was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation and the North–South Centre, ETH Zurich. T.M.L. was partially supported by the National Center of Ecological Synthesis and Analysis, USA.
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