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Services in transition: The impact of information technology on the service sector
Book reviews
raises a number of important questions. His attempt to design a new global frame of reference is a worthwhile enterprise. However, in his attempts to answer the questions he poses, he does not proceed in a systematic way. Power of eloquence wins over power of analysis too often. But
I/-I-I-I-___.-!-
_.I-__.
333
he does succeed in provoking his readers into analysing and designing for themselves, and this is quite an accomplishment. Seen in this light, this elegant volume is valuable now that we are in the third period of designing and applying scenarios.
-1
IT
Nanette
Levinson
Information Technology and Economic Prospects 221 pages (Paris, OECD, 1987) Services in Transition: The Impact of Information Technology on the Service Sector Gerald Faulhaber, Eli Noam and Roberta Tasley (editors) 210 pages (Cambridge, MA, USA, Ballinger Publishing Company, 1986) Information Technology: The Trillion Dollar Opportunity Harvey L. Poppel and Bernard Goldstein 207 pages (New York, McGraw Hill, 1987) Assessing the impacts of information technology (IT) is becoming a common pastime today. At the level of the individual, employees wonder about the impact of new IT on their jobs and lives. Will the computer displace them? Will the computer or related ITS make their job easier to do successfully? Will it change the nature of how they are supervised? At the level of the firm, top managers are calling on consultants and their own information management staffs to apprise them of potential impacts. Can IT help them improve the quality of products and services? Can it help them exercise more effective control? Can it provide them with a competitive edge or, at the very least, make sure they are not at a competitive disadvantage? Can it lead Dr Levinson is an Associate Professor at The American University, HURST 206, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, 20016, USA.
FUTURES June 1988
them into a new business area? And at the level of a national government, leaders are often concerned about appropriate policies to match and respond to IT impacts. What is the relationship between IT and trade policy? What are the national and international policy implications for impacts of changing information technologies? Three recent books, each with a different focus, try to answer some of these questions. Taken together, the books provide a kaleidoscopic view of one of the most complex challenges of modern life, assessing technological change.
An economic
perspective
The first of the three books, information Technology and Economic Prospects, is a report commissioned by the OECD’s Committee for Information, Computer, and Communications Policy. Its format consists of four main parts-general findings, case studies, three research papers on the micro/macro perspective, and policy issues. The general findings section is, in the words of the report’s authors, Dieter Kimbel and Paul Stoneman, ‘backward-looking’. The premise here is: ‘if past patterns are repeated in the future, what will happen?’ (page 35). focusing on the industry level of analysis, Kimbel and Stoneman examine the impacts of information technologies and innovations on output and employment. Reviewing the findings of the studies summarized in the report, they
raises a number of important questions. His attempt to design a new global frame of reference is a worthwhile enterprise. However, in his attempts to answer the questions he poses, he does not proceed in a systematic way. Power of eloquence wins over power of analysis too often. But
I/-I-I-I-___.-!-
_.I-__.
333
he does succeed in provoking his readers into analysing and designing for themselves, and this is quite an accomplishment. Seen in this light, this elegant volume is valuable now that we are in the third period of designing and applying scenarios.
-1
IT
Nanette
Levinson
Information Technology and Economic Prospects 221 pages (Paris, OECD, 1987) Services in Transition: The Impact of Information Technology on the Service Sector Gerald Faulhaber, Eli Noam and Roberta Tasley (editors) 210 pages (Cambridge, MA, USA, Ballinger Publishing Company, 1986) Information Technology: The Trillion Dollar Opportunity Harvey L. Poppel and Bernard Goldstein 207 pages (New York, McGraw Hill, 1987) Assessing the impacts of information technology (IT) is becoming a common pastime today. At the level of the individual, employees wonder about the impact of new IT on their jobs and lives. Will the computer displace them? Will the computer or related ITS make their job easier to do successfully? Will it change the nature of how they are supervised? At the level of the firm, top managers are calling on consultants and their own information management staffs to apprise them of potential impacts. Can IT help them improve the quality of products and services? Can it help them exercise more effective control? Can it provide them with a competitive edge or, at the very least, make sure they are not at a competitive disadvantage? Can it lead Dr Levinson is an Associate Professor at The American University, HURST 206, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, 20016, USA.
FUTURES June 1988
them into a new business area? And at the level of a national government, leaders are often concerned about appropriate policies to match and respond to IT impacts. What is the relationship between IT and trade policy? What are the national and international policy implications for impacts of changing information technologies? Three recent books, each with a different focus, try to answer some of these questions. Taken together, the books provide a kaleidoscopic view of one of the most complex challenges of modern life, assessing technological change.
An economic
perspective
The first of the three books, information Technology and Economic Prospects, is a report commissioned by the OECD’s Committee for Information, Computer, and Communications Policy. Its format consists of four main parts-general findings, case studies, three research papers on the micro/macro perspective, and policy issues. The general findings section is, in the words of the report’s authors, Dieter Kimbel and Paul Stoneman, ‘backward-looking’. The premise here is: ‘if past patterns are repeated in the future, what will happen?’ (page 35). focusing on the industry level of analysis, Kimbel and Stoneman examine the impacts of information technologies and innovations on output and employment. Reviewing the findings of the studies summarized in the report, they